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Tuesday, 12 November 2013

NBA Picks November 2013

There are times during the regular season, which is long enough, when you have to take a step back and take stock of the picks made and figure out what has gone wrong, especially when going on a poor run. That was the situation for me at the end of October as the first four picks went down, but two of those were down to ridiculous late efforts and collapses from teams and I decided to let the season settle down somewhat.

Indiana failed to cover my first pick by allowing a three pointer with time running out, while the Knicks somehow blew a huge 25 point lead against Milwaukee and won by 7 points when they were being asked to cover 8... In both games, the losing team decided not to foul down the stretch and send Indiana/New York to the foul line either so they were a couple of bad breaks.

To be honest, the first week of November was filled with erratic games too and so I took a watching brief, but like I said above, the hope is that the season will settle down now and teams can get on with the tough months ahead.

Teams have also had surprising starts with Miami already having 3 losses and the New York Knicks starting off 2-4. The Western Conference looks the more competitive of the two, while the LA Lakers will be desperately hoping that Kobe Bryant can return in the near future to spark what could be a terrible season for the franchise.

November 12th
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: I wouldn't at all be surprised if both of these teams combined for over 200 points in this game as both have certainly been better in the opposition half of the court than they have when it comes to Defensive unity.

Of the two, Dallas at least have something to build on when it comes to the Defensive side of the court after their performance against Milwaukee. They are also facing a team that might be a little down after blowing a definite win on Sunday night at Oklahoma City and I like Dallas to cover.

November 13th
Charlotte Bobcats @ Boston Celtics Pick: The momentum is all with Boston heading into this game and I do think they are capable of making it 5 in a row against a Charlotte team that is still trying to find their identity on Offense.

Boston have found a good formula with Avery Bradley and Jordan Crawford in the back-court and I like the Celtics to cover.

New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The New York Knicks have struggled since Tyson Chandler was injured and also have a big game on national television tomorrow so they look in a bad spot here.

The fact that are playing a team with a front-court as big as Atlanta's won't help the Knicks and second chances to score should be dominated by the Hawks. I expect them to dominate the boards and I think the Hawks cover in this one.

November 14th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Oklahoma City haven't shown much Defense in their last three games, and that could be exposed by the Warriors who have been blowing teams out in front of their own fans.

The Thunder will need some scoring from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to make this a game and we could see the total points surpassed.

November 15th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pick: It is never easy facing Denver in the altitude of Colorado, but the Timberwolves are scoring a lot of points and are playing very well over the last week.

The spread just looks too low here and I think Minnesota win and cover.

San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz Pick: San Antonio have been playing some of the best basketball in the Western Conference and they have won 3 in a row by wide margins.

They should be able to roll against the struggling Utah Jazz including 3 blow outs in a row before their win over New Orleans. I expect the Spurs can go into their extended break after this game with continued momentum behind them.

November 19th
It has summed up the early season that I would pick Atlanta to beat the Knicks and they play like crap and lose, but two days later blow out the same team on the road. More late backdoor covers haven't helped my early mood when it comes to the NBA so far this season.

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat have begun to turn up the, errr, Heat on the Defensive side of the court and LeBron James is playing at a monster level. I guess he doesn't want to talk about his future by giving the media something else to write about and I like Miami to win and cover if they maintain the Defensive effort of recent games.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards Pick: About the only time Minnesota have failed to cover in recent games was when I picked them, but hopefully that hex is broken on Tuesday night. The Timberwolves have been wiping teams out with an Offensive output that is hard to match, although I hope they remain focused with a big game against the LA Clippers tomorrow night.

November 20th
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks PickThe New York Knicks have been playing really badly and they need a big improvement to match the Indiana Pacers in this one. Indiana have had a few days to recover from the loss to the Bulls and will want to put on a bigger effort in this one and I like them to win this one and cover.

Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Pick: The NBA has had some strange results in the opening month of the season, including a number of teams blowing huge leads. However, the Miami Heat have been picking up the form that we have come to know of them and I think they can cover again tonight.

I have respect for Orlando in the way this young team gives their all in every game, but the Heat are rolling at the moment.

November 22nd
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The New Orleans Pelicans have a big game in a few days time at the San Antonio Spurs, but have been scoring a lot of points since Ryan Anderson returned to health. They should be too strong for Cleveland who are on a short road trip at two Western Conference teams and I like them to cover the points.

November 25th
Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz Pick: It was confirmed that Derrick Rose is going to miss the rest of the season and while they play a team that completely sucks in Utah, the Chicago Bulls might not be ready to win a game as favourite here. It's the last game in the West before a couple of road games against Eastern Conference teams and I'll take the points with Utah.

New York Knicks @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: One of the most disappointing teams in the first month of the season are the New York Knicks and I have to keep fading a team that is still missing the likes of Raymond Felton and Tyson Chandler.

Portland will be missing Mo Williams through suspension, but this is a team on a roll and I would be surprised if they don't win this one handily.

November 26th
LA Lakers @ Washington Wizards Pick: The LA Lakers have a mini-road trip to the East coast through Thanksgiving, which opens up with this game in Washington. The Wizards have been playing well, but are struggling Defensively and that is an area where the Lakers can at least make this competitive so I will take the points.

November 27th
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The loss of Derrick Rose is huge for this Chicago team that also has lost the depth that made them competitive last season. They won't tank the season, but they may need the Thanksgiving break between games to make the adjustments to the Offense without their star Point Guard.

With Detroit finally winning back to back games, the Pistons may have the confidence to dominate the boards and win this game while covering the spread.

New York Knicks @ LA Clippers PickInjuries are hurting New York and their Offense has struggled for consistency which doesn't bode well for them against a team like the Clippers that can score a lot of points. Usually I would steer clear of such a big spread, but New York are struggling badly from beyond the three point range and I think the Clippers crush them in a track meet.

MY PICKS: 12/11 Dallas Mavericks - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
13/11 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
13/11 Atlanta Hawks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/11 Golden State Warriors-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 208 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/11 Minnesota Timberwolves - 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/11 San Antonio Spurs - 10 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/11 Miami Heat - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/11 Minnesota Timberwolves - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/11 Indiana Pacers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/11 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/11 New Orleans Pelicans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/11 Utah Jazz + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/11 Portland Trail Blazers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/11 LA Lakers + 5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/11 Detroit Pistons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/11 LA Clippers - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

November 2013 Update: 8-7-1, + 0.82 Units
October 2013 Final0-4, - 4 Units

Final Season 2013105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 201279-53-1, + 27.48 Units

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