Weekend Football Picks 2013 (November 9-10)

Why does there seem to be a lot more international breaks in the domestic season this year compared to years past? I don't think there has been any added dates, but it seems the domestic season has been very stop-start with all the two week breaks we see and we will see another one at the end of this weekend.

This time around we are looking for the final World Cup qualifying teams to be decided as a number of Play Offs are played around the world, but the international friendlies means players at the top clubs will all be away travelling.

It is an important time for the likes of Arsenal who will be looking to maintain their lead at the top of the Premier League- they are an interesting team with so many willing to write of the chances of the Gunners to win the Premier League despite a fairly consistent start that has opened up a 5 point lead at the top of the League.

I don't buy into that, I think Arsenal have every chance to win the title, but they will need to steer clear of injuries if they are to do that- don't get me wrong, I don't think Arsenal are going to beat the 'big' teams in the League, but you don't have to do that to win the title and they have shown far more ruthlessness against the 'weaker' teams in the table apart from their opening day debacle against Aston Villa.

Winning against the teams they should beat will be enough, especially if the likes of Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea keep slipping up in those games and I still consider those three teams as the biggest challengers to Arsenal if the the latter is to win the League. Liverpool will be concentrating on trying to break the top four, while Tottenham Hotspur have been far too 'negative' in their early games and I can see them dropping too many points along the way.

This weekend is a big test of the Arsenal credentials, but even a defeat at Old Trafford shouldn't dent the confidence the squad have to make a challenge, although a tough Christmas may really begin to separate the pretenders from the contenders.

A lot of people are mentioning the 'big test' for Arsenal, but it is also a big test for Manchester United who still haven't convinced at times this season. There are patches of quality, but United need the win more than Arsenal and it will be interesting to see what kind of approach David Moyes has to the game. A draw isn't the worst result in the world for United as neither Manchester City or Chelsea have really taken advantage of the early struggles at Old Trafford, but a defeat would leave the Champions 11 points behind and that is a big mountain to climb, even if we are only in November.


The international break may come at the right time for the likes of Crystal Palace and Sunderland as new managers (in Palace's case they will likely appoint a new manager in this two week period) look to get ideas in place that will help the sides bridge big gaps to safety. Both clubs are already at least 5 points from safety and there isn't a lot of games where I would pick either to win at the moment and there is a real danger that both could be cut off by Christmas without a serious upturn in fortunes.

Palace have the more winnable game this weekend, but that isn't saying much as both teams face top 7 teams, albeit at home, and I do feel fans of both sides are in for long seasons.


November has started fairly effectively for the picks and there has been a big recovery from a terrible August as profits in September and October have turned things around and brought the picks back into the black. I have had a bit of luck on the side of the picks, and am hopeful that can continue this weekend.


Aston Villa v Cardiff City Pick: Last weekend is one that will live long in the memories of the Cardiff City fans as they watched their team beat Swansea at home in the top flight. Now they will look to back up that win against an out of form Aston Villa team who haven't won any of their last 4 games in the Premier League and who have won just 1 of 5 games at Villa Park this season.

However, I have a feeling the home side can find their way to three points in this one because I feel they have more match winners in their squad than Cardiff.

It won't be a surprise if the Cardiff players have a slight let down after the exertions of last weekend and I think Aston Villa are the more desperate team going into the international break. There is little doubt in my mind that Villa are a better side away from home as teams afford them more space in those games, but I think with Christian Benteke up front, they find a way to win this game. However, I don't trust Villa completely at home and will keep interest to a minimum on this game.


Chelsea v West Brom Pick: I am still not sure where the Chelsea lack of performance came last week against Newcastle United, but they have returned to winning ways and I would think they are going to be too strong for West Brom on Saturday afternoon.

I have to respect West Brom for the performance they produced when winning at Old Trafford earlier this season, so they are clearly capable of earning a result at Stamford Bridge. However, they were undone by Liverpool comfortably and weren't quite as good as the 2-0 win over Crystal Palace may suggest.

They won't be able to get away with a poor performance against an efficient Chelsea team that can create chances and who will have been boosted by seeing Samuel Eto'o and Demba Ba scoring against Schalke during the week.

Jose Mourinho will want his side to go into the international break with positive momentum and while Steve Clarke will be aware of what Mourinho wants to do, I think Chelsea are going to come up with a win by a couple of goals. Chelsea have won 3 of their last 4 home games by at least 2 goals and that has been set as a fair price that looks worth backing.


Liverpool v Fulham Pick: There isn't really a lot I am going to say about this game after seeing the way Fulham defended in their defeat to Manchester United last weekend. Fulham look like a team that isn't playing with any confidence at the moment and the pressure is beginning to increase on Martin Jol again.

Now they face a Liverpool team that would have been stewing about their defeat at Arsenal for a whole week and one that has been scoring plenty of goals at home of late. With Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge up front, I expect Liverpool will become the latest side to expose some of the defensive issues Fulham have had and I would expect Liverpool to win this by at least 2 goals and with every chance to have an even bigger margin of victory.


Southampton v Hull City Pick: I won't understand the decision for Southampton to rest so many players for their League Cup game as a win would have meant a Quarter Final at home against Chelsea and the chance to win some silverware.

However, that decision has been made and the only way the fans will even consider the positives will be if Southampton come out and win this game on Saturday to remain on the coattails of the top teams.

I have been impressed with the way Southampton have played as they have been solid defensively and have enough creativity up front which is a great balance to have in a team. That could cause Hull City plenty of problems as the Tigers have struggled to score goals consistently and it will be tough for them to do what they failed to do at Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham and that is score at a top six club.

Southampton have kept 5 clean sheets in a row at home and they have a strong chance of making that 6 in this game. I do think they have enough quality to break down Hull City, although the fact that failed to beat West Ham United and Sunderland here has to be a concern.

However, the 2.30 that the home side win this game without conceding a goal looks a tad big and I like the chances of that happening.


Norwich City v West Ham United Pick: Chris Hughton will be hoping his side is not as wasteful in front of goal as they were in their last home game against Cardiff City, especially as he looks like he is seriously teetering on the brink of being sacked.

The pressure is on after some heavy defeats in recent games and failing to win this game may mean the owners make the change with two weeks before the next League games. While the players seem to be behind Hugton, there are some murmurings of discontent from the stands that may have made the owners a little twitchy.

It won't be easy for Norwich City as West Ham United have proved to be a very stubborn team to play this season with only 1 goal conceded away from home in 5 games. It has to be said that the Hammers are not a free-scoring team though so Norwich will be in the game throughout you would imagine and the lack of goals has to be a concern for Sam Allardyce who did sign Carlton Cole on a free transfer after allowing the striker to leave in the summer.

The lack of goals in both teams is a concern and it surprises me that both teams NOT to score is a bigger price than both teams scoring. Neither team has shown too much in front of goal and the value has to be on one of them failing to score in this one.


Sunderland v Manchester City Pick: Stupidity and rash tackles cost Sunderland any chance of building on their 2-1 win over Newcastle United last week as their nine men were beaten at Hull City, but the win over Southampton in the League Cup means they have something of a winning feeling at home.

Coupled with their recent success over Manchester City at the Stadium of Light and there could be a real chance of a surprise in this one... Not for me though.

I think Manchester City are scoring too many goals to really be held back by a Sunderland side that are still showing some signs of vulnerability when they concede once. Manuel Pellegrini is also an attacking manager and I expect him to start two up front in a bid to pressure the Black Cats all over the pitch and I can only see one winner in this one.

I hate one thing though- when everyone seems to think a game is only going to go one way, it almost inevitably goes another way, but I can't help but back Manchester City to win this one by a couple of goals at big odds.


Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: This is a big game for both clubs and could set up the way the rest of the season is going to go depending on who wins and who loses. That might make for a tighter affair where both sides are a little more cautious.

I am sure Arsene Wenger will say that he wants to win this game, but privately I believe he would be quite happy with a point, while a draw would also keep David Moyes in the hunt for the Premier League title.

However, Moyes will be urged on by the home supporters to keep the side pushing forward and I do think we will see goals in this game. Manchester United have begun to play a little better, but there still seems to be a lack of real idea as to how they want to go about things and they do look a little vulnerable at the back.

The likes of Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil are going to be tough to stop for the United midfield and they do look like a trio that will create chances. On the other hand, Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie's partnership has shown signs of sparking to life and this has the feeling of a game that could easily end 2-1 to either side.

The one scoreline that could be bothersome is a 1-1 where both sides settle, but that isn't the United way at Old Trafford and I will back over 2.5 goals in this game.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Southampton Win to Nil @ 2.30 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Norwich City-West Ham United Both To Score- NO @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester United-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November Update: 7-7, + 3.63 Units (21 Units Staked, + 17.29% Yield)

October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)