The last major piece of silverware to be decided in England is the FA Cup and the Final between Arsenal and Hull City will be back in the more traditional setting of coming at the end of the League season.
I was never a fan of sticking the Cup Final a week before the end of the season as the prestige of the competition took another blow with that decision, although I do wish they had stuck to the regular 3pm kick off instead of this 5pm one they have for the weekend (spare a thought for the Hull City fans who might actually be heading home after the game).
It might have worked out a lot better for the FA Cup Final if it had been set for the 3pm kick off slot because this game is going up against the final La Liga games of the season with the Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid match kicking off at the same time. Personally I would watch the FA Cup Final, for as long as it is competitive, over the La Liga game, but I have a feeling there will be plenty of neutrals who might not do the same thing.
Of course the game at the Nou Camp is essentially a 'Final' between the top two teams in the Spanish top flight, although one that can be won by Atletico Madrid as long as they avoid defeat. There will be a real confidence they can do that ahead of the big Champions League Final against their city rivals Real Madrid next weekend, but I believe that both of those games are going to end up being linked.
If Atletico were to lose the La Liga title this weekend after virtually having two hands on the trophy two weeks ago, I would fear for their chances of winning in Lisbon. However, win the title this weekend and the momentum would certainly be behind the side considering how off the boil Real Madrid have been following the win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League Semi Finals.
It was a good week for the picks that have improved the numbers from May and the season in general as both League One Play Off Semi Final second legs were won by the home team. That has set up two good Play Off Finals next weekend with the League Two Final being set by Saturday afternoon.
With the season winding down, there might only be a few picks left for May before the World Cup post will be created in the first week of June in preparation for the tournament that kicks off on June 12th.
Arsenal v Hull City FA Cup Final Pick: If games and Finals went the way they should on paper, Wigan Athletic would never have beaten Manchester City last season and that alone should keep Arsenal fans from counting their chickens before their eggs have hatched.
For the second year in a row, the FA Cup Final looks a mismatch on paper, but Arsenal are accustomed to failing to produce in a big moment when the team is expected to win and the memories of the League Cup Final loss to Birmingham City will still be fresh in the minds of the fans going to Wembley Stadium.
Arsenal were expected to waltz through Birmingham and I get a similar feeling that they are expecting something of the same in this one, but the tension of not winning a trophy for almost a decade will play its part. As much as players tell the media they don't listen to such statistics, the Arsenal players would have to be machines to not realise the importance of winning this game.
That will bring tension into the match, although the side will also feel they have a mental edge having dismissed Hull City twice already this season. Hull are also missing the likes of Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long and I am not convinced they will have enough of a goal threat to really cause Arsenal problems through the ninety minutes.
Hull City's biggest impact is likely to come from set pieces, but they haven't scored in either game against the Gunners and I think Arsenal are going to snap their run of nine years without a trophy. Backing Arsenal to win to nil in normal time looks the call for the game.
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The maths for this game are very simple- if Barcelona win, the win the La Liga title, but if they fail to pick up the three points, it will be their opponents Atletico Madrid who will pick up the trophy on Saturday at the Nou Camp.
They may be back in the title race, but Barcelona haven't looked like a team that is on the same page in in the last few months and I think they are going to struggle to break down Diego Simeone's team.
It is the sixth time that Atletico and Barcelona will be meeting this season and four of the last five games have ended in draws with the sole exception coming in the Champions League Semi Final that was won by Atletico Madrid in the Vicente Calderon.
My gut feeling is that Atletico are going to make themselves hard enough to beat to earn the requisite result to win the title, although this game is likely to be a draw if they are to win the League.
MY PICKS: Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Barcelona-Atletico Madrid Draw @ 3.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
May Update: 11-12, + 4.80 Units (42 Units Staked, + 11.43% Yield)
April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Showing posts with label Spanish Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spanish Football. Show all posts
Saturday, 17 May 2014
Saturday, 30 November 2013
Weekend Football Picks 2013 (November 30-December 1)
It has been a busy week as my working commitments means I haven't had a chance to crack on with the picks for the games this week any earlier than Saturday. However, I have to say that the games this weekend look tough to call in the Premier League and it could be a hard week to come out on the right side.
Aston Villa v Sunderland Pick: I don't like backing Aston Villa too many times at home because I do think the system they employ is much more effective when they are allowed to counter-attack and that is unlikely to be the case against Sunderland this weekend.
Aston Villa did pick up an important win over Cardiff City in their most recent game at Villa Park and Paul Lambert would have circled this game as one they have to win before the festive period really kicks in.
Gus Poyet does have Sunderland playing better of late and they have been unfortunate to lose at Stoke City last week and Hull City before that as sending offs have affected the game plan. A lack of goals has to be a concern for Poyet, particularly away from home, while they have also been conceding too many goals on their travels.
Wes Brown is a big player for Sunderland as he is a defender that certainly can excel for them, but I think the momentum of the result on Monday will spark a Villa win this weekend. At odds against, Aston Villa have to be the call in this one.
Cardiff City v Arsenal Pick: As well as Cardiff City played last week, especially in their determination not to lose that game against Manchester United, they didn't create an awful lot of chances during the 90 minutes.
With better finishing, Manchester United would have put that game to bed in the second half and I don't think Arsenal will be as generous in this game. The return of Theo Walcott gives them another attacking option and Arsenal should be able to create chances to win this game.
Arsenal have only had 1 clean sheet away from home in the Premier League this season and I do believe Cardiff will be dangerous enough to score in this one off a set piece or something like that.
However, I do think the Gunners are too strong and I will back them in the same way I backed Manchester United last week and call for Arsenal to win a game in which both teams score.
Newcastle United v West Brom Pick: Picking a winner in this game is not as clear-cut as some may initially think- Newcastle United have been in good form with a couple of big wins here and they have also protecting a decent home record.
On the other hand, West Brom may have drawn 4 of 6 away games in the League this season, but they have won at Old Trafford and should have won at Stamford Bridge so they won't feel overawed by having to face Newcastle United at St James' Park.
There is a lot of potential for goals in the game, as previous fixtures between teams here have also shown. The last 9 games at St James' Park between these sides have seen at least 3 goals scored, while 3 of the last 4 of the home/away games respectively have also seen that mark surpassed.
At 1.90, the chance for goals is perhaps a little under-rated here and I think this may be another exciting late afternoon kick off for the neutral fans to enjoy.
Real Madrid v Real Valladolid Pick: Real Madrid should be far too strong for Real Valladolid, but they are likely going to concede in this one on the way to the win.
Valladolid have scored in Barcelona, Villarreal and Valencia, while Real Madrid have conceded at least one goal in their last 4 gamesi n front of their own fans.
Even their last 2 wins over Valladolid at home have come in games they have conceded so backing the home side to win in a game where both teams score looks the way to go.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: This is a really big game for Andre Villas-Boas and his future as Tottenham Hotspur manager... The loss to Manchester City can be seen as quite a turning point for the fans and it seems to have come to a head.
Despite spending a lot of money in the summer after selling Gareth Bale, Spurs have struggled for goals and just haven't created enough chances for their new striker Roberto Soldado.
They should have chances against Manchester United who haven't been that solid defensively in their away games all season, although they are coming off the best performance of the season in the win at Bayer Leverkusen.
Some will criticise the quality of Leverkusen, but they don't lose many games at home and that was a very respectable win. United haven't been creating a lot of chances themselves, but the likes of Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie can produce a goal out of nothing and I think that will prove to be the difference in the two sides.
United have a strong record at White Hart Lane and I do think they can win this game. However, I recommend taking them on the Asian Handicap where a draw would at least return half stakes.
Hull City v Liverpool Pick: I have been impressed with the defensive shape that Hull City have had in the majority of their games this season, especially at the KC Stadium where they have been particularly stingy.
However, as much as Steve Bruce would like to sit back and try and defend deep in numbers in this one, the home crowd will mean Hull City have to show some adventure and I can see Liverpool exploiting them when they do.
Liverpool have scored plenty of goals away from home so far in the Premier League and the lack of goals in the home team will be a concern for Hull. That should be the difference between the teams in this one, and I think having someone like Luis Suarez means Liverpool can score a goal even when they are not playing particularly well.
With the goals in the Liverpool side, even away from home, I think they are going to win this game by a couple of goals.
Manchester City v Swansea Pick: There isn't really a lot to say about Manchester City when they play in front of their own supporters and they have been much more consistent at the Etihad Stadium than they have on their travels.
Manchester City have scored plenty of goals and I think Swansea are going to be the latest team to visit this ground and come away not just empty handed, but coming away with a comfortable loss.
City will score goals and Swansea haven't been playing as well this season as they did last year. Whether that is down to their participation in the Europa League or just teams getting used to their style of football is a question that will be cleared up in the next six weeks, but either way they won't find it easy to match Manchester City in this one.
The layers don't seem that convinced that City will win this one as easy as I think they might, so backing the home side for a win by at least two goals is the call.
MY PICKS: Aston Villa @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Newcastle United-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Real Madrid to Win @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
November Update: 15-14-1, + 3.00 Units (45 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Aston Villa v Sunderland Pick: I don't like backing Aston Villa too many times at home because I do think the system they employ is much more effective when they are allowed to counter-attack and that is unlikely to be the case against Sunderland this weekend.
Aston Villa did pick up an important win over Cardiff City in their most recent game at Villa Park and Paul Lambert would have circled this game as one they have to win before the festive period really kicks in.
Gus Poyet does have Sunderland playing better of late and they have been unfortunate to lose at Stoke City last week and Hull City before that as sending offs have affected the game plan. A lack of goals has to be a concern for Poyet, particularly away from home, while they have also been conceding too many goals on their travels.
Wes Brown is a big player for Sunderland as he is a defender that certainly can excel for them, but I think the momentum of the result on Monday will spark a Villa win this weekend. At odds against, Aston Villa have to be the call in this one.
Cardiff City v Arsenal Pick: As well as Cardiff City played last week, especially in their determination not to lose that game against Manchester United, they didn't create an awful lot of chances during the 90 minutes.
With better finishing, Manchester United would have put that game to bed in the second half and I don't think Arsenal will be as generous in this game. The return of Theo Walcott gives them another attacking option and Arsenal should be able to create chances to win this game.
Arsenal have only had 1 clean sheet away from home in the Premier League this season and I do believe Cardiff will be dangerous enough to score in this one off a set piece or something like that.
However, I do think the Gunners are too strong and I will back them in the same way I backed Manchester United last week and call for Arsenal to win a game in which both teams score.
Newcastle United v West Brom Pick: Picking a winner in this game is not as clear-cut as some may initially think- Newcastle United have been in good form with a couple of big wins here and they have also protecting a decent home record.
On the other hand, West Brom may have drawn 4 of 6 away games in the League this season, but they have won at Old Trafford and should have won at Stamford Bridge so they won't feel overawed by having to face Newcastle United at St James' Park.
There is a lot of potential for goals in the game, as previous fixtures between teams here have also shown. The last 9 games at St James' Park between these sides have seen at least 3 goals scored, while 3 of the last 4 of the home/away games respectively have also seen that mark surpassed.
At 1.90, the chance for goals is perhaps a little under-rated here and I think this may be another exciting late afternoon kick off for the neutral fans to enjoy.
Real Madrid v Real Valladolid Pick: Real Madrid should be far too strong for Real Valladolid, but they are likely going to concede in this one on the way to the win.
Valladolid have scored in Barcelona, Villarreal and Valencia, while Real Madrid have conceded at least one goal in their last 4 gamesi n front of their own fans.
Even their last 2 wins over Valladolid at home have come in games they have conceded so backing the home side to win in a game where both teams score looks the way to go.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: This is a really big game for Andre Villas-Boas and his future as Tottenham Hotspur manager... The loss to Manchester City can be seen as quite a turning point for the fans and it seems to have come to a head.
Despite spending a lot of money in the summer after selling Gareth Bale, Spurs have struggled for goals and just haven't created enough chances for their new striker Roberto Soldado.
They should have chances against Manchester United who haven't been that solid defensively in their away games all season, although they are coming off the best performance of the season in the win at Bayer Leverkusen.
Some will criticise the quality of Leverkusen, but they don't lose many games at home and that was a very respectable win. United haven't been creating a lot of chances themselves, but the likes of Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie can produce a goal out of nothing and I think that will prove to be the difference in the two sides.
United have a strong record at White Hart Lane and I do think they can win this game. However, I recommend taking them on the Asian Handicap where a draw would at least return half stakes.
Hull City v Liverpool Pick: I have been impressed with the defensive shape that Hull City have had in the majority of their games this season, especially at the KC Stadium where they have been particularly stingy.
However, as much as Steve Bruce would like to sit back and try and defend deep in numbers in this one, the home crowd will mean Hull City have to show some adventure and I can see Liverpool exploiting them when they do.
Liverpool have scored plenty of goals away from home so far in the Premier League and the lack of goals in the home team will be a concern for Hull. That should be the difference between the teams in this one, and I think having someone like Luis Suarez means Liverpool can score a goal even when they are not playing particularly well.
With the goals in the Liverpool side, even away from home, I think they are going to win this game by a couple of goals.
Manchester City v Swansea Pick: There isn't really a lot to say about Manchester City when they play in front of their own supporters and they have been much more consistent at the Etihad Stadium than they have on their travels.
Manchester City have scored plenty of goals and I think Swansea are going to be the latest team to visit this ground and come away not just empty handed, but coming away with a comfortable loss.
City will score goals and Swansea haven't been playing as well this season as they did last year. Whether that is down to their participation in the Europa League or just teams getting used to their style of football is a question that will be cleared up in the next six weeks, but either way they won't find it easy to match Manchester City in this one.
The layers don't seem that convinced that City will win this one as easy as I think they might, so backing the home side for a win by at least two goals is the call.
MY PICKS: Aston Villa @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Newcastle United-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Real Madrid to Win @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
November Update: 15-14-1, + 3.00 Units (45 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Saturday, 2 November 2013
Weekend Football Picks 2013 (November 2-3)
It was a much better October for the picks and rectified the bad start to the season for the most part, although I am looking to ride that momentum into another busy month of football coming up this month.
Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Alan Pardew to produce the results that will save his job, but it has begun to seem inevitable that he will be moved out sooner rather than later. The papers have even linked Pardew with a move to become manager of Crystal Palace which should indicate how insecure his job has become at St James' Park.
And it isn't like he is facing a very winnable game this weekend as he takes on the form team in the English top flight with Chelsea having won 8 of their last 9 games in all competitions.
However, the odds on the away win look remarkably short considering the poor away record that Chelsea have coming into the game and instead I will look for the away side's chances of scoring goals.
Newcastle United have conceded plenty of goals in recent weeks and both Hull City and Liverpool have scored twice at this ground in the last couple of Premier League home games. Chelsea themselves have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 away games in all competitions and have hit that target in 4 of their last 5 trips to this part of the North East.
Ladbrokes offer 2.10 that Chelsea hit 2 or 3 goals here and that looks a real player unless Newcastle have completely given up on their manager and collapse which they can sometimes be guilty of.
Fulham v Manchester United Pick: Neither one of these teams has been in great form in the first couple of months of the new season, but I don't think Manchester United look a trustworthy price at short odds on.
Even against a team like Fulham, you have to think the home side are going to have chances as United have looked vulnerable at the back and I wouldn't be able to say with real confidence of what the result will be in this game.
A defeat for United would put them in an extremely difficult position to win the Premier League, especially with a tough month of fixtures ahead of them. The 4-0 win over Norwich City and scoring 3 against Stoke may be an indication of United beginning to turn a corner, but they need to show more before I could back them at odds like we see.
Fulham themselves have been crushed by Arsenal at home and also were surprisingly beaten by Cardiff City, but they didn't play badly in the former game and certainly have strikers that will pose problems.
Defensively they have struggled though and I think there have been signs that United are going to get back on the goal-scoring front. Manchester United could take advantage and become the latest team to score at least 2 goals here and I think backing the away side to score 2-3 goals here at odds against looks a decent price.
Manchester City v Norwich City Pick: Manchester City have been playing very well at the Etihad Stadium and also earning the positive results those performances deserve and I expect they will be too strong for Norwich City in this one.
The problem for Norwich is that they concede too many goals and they will be under constant pressure by a Manchester City side that plays attacking football and looks to score goals.
City have scored plenty of goals at home, including 4 against Newcastle United and Manchester United, and it is hard to see Norwich holding out in this one. Unfortunately we will need to see a three goal win for the home side if you want a full payout on the Asian Handicap, but I still can't ignore how strong Manchester City have been at home this season.
With the likes of Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Negredo, Edin Dzeko, David Silva, Samir Nasri and Yaya Toure getting forward, I don't see how Norwich can contain the home side and I will back Manchester City to clear the Asian Handicap.
West Brom v Crystal Palace Pick: There are a couple of teams at the bottom of the Premier League that are in real danger of being cut off and Crystal Palace are one of those sides.
After seeing them lose 1-4 to Fulham at Selhurst Park, I had to seriously question where Crystal Palace were going to pick up the 37 points they still need to give themselves a chance of survival. They performed much better against Arsenal, but fell to another defeat and I am not sure they have the character to get out of the situation they find themselves.
It was going to be a big ask for Palace to survive in the Premier League without Wilfried Zaha and Glenn Murray, but they have also conceded too many goals and have not been as competitive as they would have wanted.
West Brom are coming in off a heavy defeat, but they thumped Sunderland in their only home win in the Premier League and Steve Clarke will have circled this game as a must-win one for his team.
The Baggies have goals in the side and I believe they will become the latest side to beat Palace by at least a couple of goals and will back them on the Asian Handicap to do so.
Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: Both of these sides have plenty of attacking verve about them, but both have also looked pretty vulnerable at the back which should make this an exciting afternoon game to watch.
Neither manager really strikes me as one that would curb their sides attacking instincts either and I expect both Arsene Wenger and Brendan Rodgers to keep the shape that has sparked a very good start to the season for Arsenal and Liverpool respectively.
There are goals in both side with the likes of Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez all capable of creating and scoring goals.
I can't really pick a winner as there are good reasons as to why you would pick either side, although I am concerned with the amount of draws that they seem to play out with the 1-1 scoreline being particularly prevalent.
However, I think this game would more likely end up similar to last season with both scoring twice and I like the chances of the over 3.5 goals in this one, although the layers are shortening the price all the time. An early goal would be well received, for either team, to ensure the game does become an expansive one as a tight game may see the manager's accept a draw and not ask their teams to push on.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid Pick: Real Madrid are a much more confident side at home than they are away from home and there is also the fact that this is a local derby to suggest it would likely be closer than initially anticipated.
However, Rayo Vallecano have conceded a lot of goals this season and are now facing a side that banged in 7 in their most recent game. Vallecano have been beaten comfortably by Barcelona and Real Valladolid here this season and they may struggle to contain a Real Madrid team with as many goals as they have in the side.
The away side can concentrate fully on the fixture despite a Champions League game next on deck as they have that Group firmly in control after three games and I think they will score at least 3 goals here. That should be enough for Real Madrid to secure a win by at least a couple of goals and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.
Sevilla v Celta Vigo Pick: I would be surprised if we don't see goals in this games as both have scored and conceded with alarming regularity this season but I do think Sevilla's home form will prove to be the difference in the game.
You have to respect Celta Vigo for the result they attained at Malaga last weekend, but that has been the one shining light in a lot of dark results of late and Sevilla has regularly been one of the toughest away grounds to visit.
It is the home form that has kept Sevilla in a relatively safe position in the League table, and you have to believe they will be too good again having won 3 in a row at home against Celta Vigo.
Sevilla have conceded in all but one of their home games this season and Celta Vigo have scored in all but one of their away games... With the belief that Sevilla will win, backing them to do so in a game where both teams score looks a big price.
MY PICKS: Chelsea Goal Crazy: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Goal Crazy: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (4 Units)
West Brom - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Arsenal-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Sevilla to Win @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Alan Pardew to produce the results that will save his job, but it has begun to seem inevitable that he will be moved out sooner rather than later. The papers have even linked Pardew with a move to become manager of Crystal Palace which should indicate how insecure his job has become at St James' Park.
And it isn't like he is facing a very winnable game this weekend as he takes on the form team in the English top flight with Chelsea having won 8 of their last 9 games in all competitions.
However, the odds on the away win look remarkably short considering the poor away record that Chelsea have coming into the game and instead I will look for the away side's chances of scoring goals.
Newcastle United have conceded plenty of goals in recent weeks and both Hull City and Liverpool have scored twice at this ground in the last couple of Premier League home games. Chelsea themselves have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 away games in all competitions and have hit that target in 4 of their last 5 trips to this part of the North East.
Ladbrokes offer 2.10 that Chelsea hit 2 or 3 goals here and that looks a real player unless Newcastle have completely given up on their manager and collapse which they can sometimes be guilty of.
Fulham v Manchester United Pick: Neither one of these teams has been in great form in the first couple of months of the new season, but I don't think Manchester United look a trustworthy price at short odds on.
Even against a team like Fulham, you have to think the home side are going to have chances as United have looked vulnerable at the back and I wouldn't be able to say with real confidence of what the result will be in this game.
A defeat for United would put them in an extremely difficult position to win the Premier League, especially with a tough month of fixtures ahead of them. The 4-0 win over Norwich City and scoring 3 against Stoke may be an indication of United beginning to turn a corner, but they need to show more before I could back them at odds like we see.
Fulham themselves have been crushed by Arsenal at home and also were surprisingly beaten by Cardiff City, but they didn't play badly in the former game and certainly have strikers that will pose problems.
Defensively they have struggled though and I think there have been signs that United are going to get back on the goal-scoring front. Manchester United could take advantage and become the latest team to score at least 2 goals here and I think backing the away side to score 2-3 goals here at odds against looks a decent price.
Manchester City v Norwich City Pick: Manchester City have been playing very well at the Etihad Stadium and also earning the positive results those performances deserve and I expect they will be too strong for Norwich City in this one.
The problem for Norwich is that they concede too many goals and they will be under constant pressure by a Manchester City side that plays attacking football and looks to score goals.
City have scored plenty of goals at home, including 4 against Newcastle United and Manchester United, and it is hard to see Norwich holding out in this one. Unfortunately we will need to see a three goal win for the home side if you want a full payout on the Asian Handicap, but I still can't ignore how strong Manchester City have been at home this season.
With the likes of Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Negredo, Edin Dzeko, David Silva, Samir Nasri and Yaya Toure getting forward, I don't see how Norwich can contain the home side and I will back Manchester City to clear the Asian Handicap.
West Brom v Crystal Palace Pick: There are a couple of teams at the bottom of the Premier League that are in real danger of being cut off and Crystal Palace are one of those sides.
After seeing them lose 1-4 to Fulham at Selhurst Park, I had to seriously question where Crystal Palace were going to pick up the 37 points they still need to give themselves a chance of survival. They performed much better against Arsenal, but fell to another defeat and I am not sure they have the character to get out of the situation they find themselves.
It was going to be a big ask for Palace to survive in the Premier League without Wilfried Zaha and Glenn Murray, but they have also conceded too many goals and have not been as competitive as they would have wanted.
West Brom are coming in off a heavy defeat, but they thumped Sunderland in their only home win in the Premier League and Steve Clarke will have circled this game as a must-win one for his team.
The Baggies have goals in the side and I believe they will become the latest side to beat Palace by at least a couple of goals and will back them on the Asian Handicap to do so.
Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: Both of these sides have plenty of attacking verve about them, but both have also looked pretty vulnerable at the back which should make this an exciting afternoon game to watch.
Neither manager really strikes me as one that would curb their sides attacking instincts either and I expect both Arsene Wenger and Brendan Rodgers to keep the shape that has sparked a very good start to the season for Arsenal and Liverpool respectively.
There are goals in both side with the likes of Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez all capable of creating and scoring goals.
I can't really pick a winner as there are good reasons as to why you would pick either side, although I am concerned with the amount of draws that they seem to play out with the 1-1 scoreline being particularly prevalent.
However, I think this game would more likely end up similar to last season with both scoring twice and I like the chances of the over 3.5 goals in this one, although the layers are shortening the price all the time. An early goal would be well received, for either team, to ensure the game does become an expansive one as a tight game may see the manager's accept a draw and not ask their teams to push on.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid Pick: Real Madrid are a much more confident side at home than they are away from home and there is also the fact that this is a local derby to suggest it would likely be closer than initially anticipated.
However, Rayo Vallecano have conceded a lot of goals this season and are now facing a side that banged in 7 in their most recent game. Vallecano have been beaten comfortably by Barcelona and Real Valladolid here this season and they may struggle to contain a Real Madrid team with as many goals as they have in the side.
The away side can concentrate fully on the fixture despite a Champions League game next on deck as they have that Group firmly in control after three games and I think they will score at least 3 goals here. That should be enough for Real Madrid to secure a win by at least a couple of goals and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.
Sevilla v Celta Vigo Pick: I would be surprised if we don't see goals in this games as both have scored and conceded with alarming regularity this season but I do think Sevilla's home form will prove to be the difference in the game.
You have to respect Celta Vigo for the result they attained at Malaga last weekend, but that has been the one shining light in a lot of dark results of late and Sevilla has regularly been one of the toughest away grounds to visit.
It is the home form that has kept Sevilla in a relatively safe position in the League table, and you have to believe they will be too good again having won 3 in a row at home against Celta Vigo.
Sevilla have conceded in all but one of their home games this season and Celta Vigo have scored in all but one of their away games... With the belief that Sevilla will win, backing them to do so in a game where both teams score looks a big price.
MY PICKS: Chelsea Goal Crazy: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Goal Crazy: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (4 Units)
West Brom - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Arsenal-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Sevilla to Win @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Saturday, 19 October 2013
Weekend Football Picks 2013 (October 19-21)
I don't know about anybody else, but the international breaks at the beginning of the season bore me as they ruin the momentum the club football Leagues have picked up. It just seems far too stop-start for me, but at least we have a month of domestic and European football to enjoy before the next two week 'dead' period.
There is a full round of games throughout Europe this weekend and then teams can move on to Champions League and Europa League commitments in the next few days.
Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: This is a fixture that has produced a boat-load of goals in recent seasons and recent form suggests we may see more of the same on Saturday.
My biggest concern is the early kick off after an international two weeks when some players will have played all over the world, but both teams should be set out to score goals, while neither has looked rock solid defensively over the last month or so.
Newcastle v Liverpool appeals to the neutrals, but the layers are also well aware of the history of the fixture and have made sure they have trimmed the odds on at least 3 goals being scored.
That was 1.80 earlier in the week, but has been trimmed to a best price of 1.73 at the time I am writing this. I am expecting that to shorten some more and while not the biggest price you will see this weekend, I do think we will see goals in this one as we usually do.
Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: There must have been a lot of Arsenal fans checking the websites on Tuesday evening when news broke that Mesut Ozil had limped off in Germany's win at Sweden, although it does seem like a precautionary substitution.
The German has made a big impact in his short time at the Emirates Stadium and his guile will be very important to unlock a Norwich City defence that can be a little stubborn at times.
Arsenal have been creating plenty of chances in their recent games and they should be able to match what Spurs managed against Norwich earlier this season. Even the improved performances from Norwich over their last couple of League games might not be enough for them to stay with a rampant Arsenal and I think Chris Hughton will see any point earned as a bonus.
I expect the home side to create enough chances to win this one by a couple of goals.
Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The one thing that hasn't changed in Jose Mourinho's approach since leaving Chelsea and returning to Stamford Bridge is the semi-cautious way he manages in games. That has been one of the main reasons their results have mainly been efficient at home in the League and he is always liable to send out a more defensive formation when taking the lead in a game.
I can't imagine he would approach this game in any other way with a big Champions League game in Germany just days away.
Cardiff City will come here with nothing to lose, but I am not sure they have enough creativity to score and that is why I am leaning towards backing Chelsea to win to nil.
Chelsea are still being asked to clear big handicaps on the Asian Handicap market, but I don't think they will particularly push on if they go 1-0 up and will look to perhaps hit Cardiff on the counter-attack. I can't back them to win by more than 2 goals, which you would need for the full payout, because they haven't scored a lot of goals so far this season and I will instead back on the cautious approach that Jose Mourinho generally applies.
Swansea v Sunderland Pick: Since winning the League Cup, Swansea won their first Premier League home game and have subsequently failed to win any of 8 in the League. They have had a tough start to the season with the top two both visiting the Liberty Stadium and a ruthless display from Manchester United, but Swansea have won 3 games at home in Europe.
There might be a mental block for the home side, but Sunderland have to be in a much worse play with a number of defeats in away games in the League.
Gus Poyet may not have time to have a reaction from his players in this one with a number being away on international duty and I don't know if he will see a reaction from them immediately.
With Sunderland conceding as many goals as they have been, I think Swansea can snap their recent run of games without a home win in the Premier League. I will back them to win on the Asian Handicap as Sunderland have been losing a fair few games by more than one goal and Swansea certainly have goals in the side although they need to improve defensively going forward.
West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: I have to say that both live Premier League games on Saturday could be entertaining ones for the neutrals to watch and I believe this game between West Ham United and Manchester City has the potential to be the best one of the day.
West Ham United are always tough to play in front of their own fans, but the fans are also demanding enough to want their side to get on the front foot. Sam Allardyce has ensured they get their wish more often than not and I have no doubt they will have a go against a Manchester City defence that has looked vulnerable at times, particularly away from home.
On the other hand, I have no reason to doubt Manuel Pellegrini will continue with his own attacking policy that he has used away from home. Pellegrini is aware of the talent he has at his disposal, but he is also smart enough to realise most of that talent is in attacking players so he is trying to use them to the best of his ability.
It would be a real surprise if we don't see goals in this game, although I do wonder if West Ham United can keep up with Manchester City if this does develop into a high-scoring game. With City scoring at least 2 goals in 3 of their 4 away games so far, I do think the away side are the more likely winner, although it could come after an exciting game where there are at least 3 goals scored.
This just has the feel of a game where both teams will score, but I fancy Manchester City to break their away duck in the Premier League and come through.
Osasuna v Barcelona Pick: There is no doubt that Barcelona have looked a little vulnerable at the back at times this season in the absence of Carles Puyol and injuries to Javier Mascherano meaning a lot of changes in the back.
That will give Osasuna some hope that they can replicate the result of a couple of years ago when they beat Barcelona here, but I would temper those enthusiasms.
For all the issues Barcelona have had defensively, they have kept 4 clean sheets in their 5 away wins this season in all competitions, while Osasuna have struggled for goals at home.
Osasuna have lost 6 of their last 10 home games and 5 of those defeats came in games where they failed to score. With Barcelona earning clean sheets in 4 of 5 away from home, the Barcelona win to nil looks an appealing price at 2.30 in this game.
Espanyol v Atletico Madrid Pick: I am not a fan of the odds on quote for Atletico Madrid winning this game as Espanyol are no pushover, but you have to respect what Atletico have done in the first two months of the season.
Diego Simeone has the side playing good attacking football, but has balanced that with a tough defence, and they will certainly feel they can also reach 9 straight wins to open the League season.
Atletico have shown they are not afraid of playing anybody after earning a goalless draw in the Nou Camp and beating Real Madrid in their last two visits to the Bernebeau (once in extra time though). A win in Porto is not an easy task for any club in Europe and Atletico have scored a fair few goals away from home too.
I might not like the odds on quotes for Atletico to win this game, but they look a decent shout at slightly larger prices to score at least 2 goals here. Atletico have reached that total in 4 of 6 away games this season, only failing to hit against Barcelona and Real Madrid... In fact, take away the games against the top two sides in Spain and Atletico have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 away games in all competitions.
Espanyol have conceded 2 goals in each of their last two home games and have also conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 9 home games going back to last season. At 1.92, I will back Atletico to become the latest side to hit that mark.
MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Swansea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.40 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Barcelona Win to Nil @ 2.30 Coral (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
October Update: 12-7-1, + 11.58 Units (26 Units Staked, + 44.54% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
There is a full round of games throughout Europe this weekend and then teams can move on to Champions League and Europa League commitments in the next few days.
Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: This is a fixture that has produced a boat-load of goals in recent seasons and recent form suggests we may see more of the same on Saturday.
My biggest concern is the early kick off after an international two weeks when some players will have played all over the world, but both teams should be set out to score goals, while neither has looked rock solid defensively over the last month or so.
Newcastle v Liverpool appeals to the neutrals, but the layers are also well aware of the history of the fixture and have made sure they have trimmed the odds on at least 3 goals being scored.
That was 1.80 earlier in the week, but has been trimmed to a best price of 1.73 at the time I am writing this. I am expecting that to shorten some more and while not the biggest price you will see this weekend, I do think we will see goals in this one as we usually do.
Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: There must have been a lot of Arsenal fans checking the websites on Tuesday evening when news broke that Mesut Ozil had limped off in Germany's win at Sweden, although it does seem like a precautionary substitution.
The German has made a big impact in his short time at the Emirates Stadium and his guile will be very important to unlock a Norwich City defence that can be a little stubborn at times.
Arsenal have been creating plenty of chances in their recent games and they should be able to match what Spurs managed against Norwich earlier this season. Even the improved performances from Norwich over their last couple of League games might not be enough for them to stay with a rampant Arsenal and I think Chris Hughton will see any point earned as a bonus.
I expect the home side to create enough chances to win this one by a couple of goals.
Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The one thing that hasn't changed in Jose Mourinho's approach since leaving Chelsea and returning to Stamford Bridge is the semi-cautious way he manages in games. That has been one of the main reasons their results have mainly been efficient at home in the League and he is always liable to send out a more defensive formation when taking the lead in a game.
I can't imagine he would approach this game in any other way with a big Champions League game in Germany just days away.
Cardiff City will come here with nothing to lose, but I am not sure they have enough creativity to score and that is why I am leaning towards backing Chelsea to win to nil.
Chelsea are still being asked to clear big handicaps on the Asian Handicap market, but I don't think they will particularly push on if they go 1-0 up and will look to perhaps hit Cardiff on the counter-attack. I can't back them to win by more than 2 goals, which you would need for the full payout, because they haven't scored a lot of goals so far this season and I will instead back on the cautious approach that Jose Mourinho generally applies.
Swansea v Sunderland Pick: Since winning the League Cup, Swansea won their first Premier League home game and have subsequently failed to win any of 8 in the League. They have had a tough start to the season with the top two both visiting the Liberty Stadium and a ruthless display from Manchester United, but Swansea have won 3 games at home in Europe.
There might be a mental block for the home side, but Sunderland have to be in a much worse play with a number of defeats in away games in the League.
Gus Poyet may not have time to have a reaction from his players in this one with a number being away on international duty and I don't know if he will see a reaction from them immediately.
With Sunderland conceding as many goals as they have been, I think Swansea can snap their recent run of games without a home win in the Premier League. I will back them to win on the Asian Handicap as Sunderland have been losing a fair few games by more than one goal and Swansea certainly have goals in the side although they need to improve defensively going forward.
West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: I have to say that both live Premier League games on Saturday could be entertaining ones for the neutrals to watch and I believe this game between West Ham United and Manchester City has the potential to be the best one of the day.
West Ham United are always tough to play in front of their own fans, but the fans are also demanding enough to want their side to get on the front foot. Sam Allardyce has ensured they get their wish more often than not and I have no doubt they will have a go against a Manchester City defence that has looked vulnerable at times, particularly away from home.
On the other hand, I have no reason to doubt Manuel Pellegrini will continue with his own attacking policy that he has used away from home. Pellegrini is aware of the talent he has at his disposal, but he is also smart enough to realise most of that talent is in attacking players so he is trying to use them to the best of his ability.
It would be a real surprise if we don't see goals in this game, although I do wonder if West Ham United can keep up with Manchester City if this does develop into a high-scoring game. With City scoring at least 2 goals in 3 of their 4 away games so far, I do think the away side are the more likely winner, although it could come after an exciting game where there are at least 3 goals scored.
This just has the feel of a game where both teams will score, but I fancy Manchester City to break their away duck in the Premier League and come through.
Osasuna v Barcelona Pick: There is no doubt that Barcelona have looked a little vulnerable at the back at times this season in the absence of Carles Puyol and injuries to Javier Mascherano meaning a lot of changes in the back.
That will give Osasuna some hope that they can replicate the result of a couple of years ago when they beat Barcelona here, but I would temper those enthusiasms.
For all the issues Barcelona have had defensively, they have kept 4 clean sheets in their 5 away wins this season in all competitions, while Osasuna have struggled for goals at home.
Osasuna have lost 6 of their last 10 home games and 5 of those defeats came in games where they failed to score. With Barcelona earning clean sheets in 4 of 5 away from home, the Barcelona win to nil looks an appealing price at 2.30 in this game.
Espanyol v Atletico Madrid Pick: I am not a fan of the odds on quote for Atletico Madrid winning this game as Espanyol are no pushover, but you have to respect what Atletico have done in the first two months of the season.
Diego Simeone has the side playing good attacking football, but has balanced that with a tough defence, and they will certainly feel they can also reach 9 straight wins to open the League season.
Atletico have shown they are not afraid of playing anybody after earning a goalless draw in the Nou Camp and beating Real Madrid in their last two visits to the Bernebeau (once in extra time though). A win in Porto is not an easy task for any club in Europe and Atletico have scored a fair few goals away from home too.
I might not like the odds on quotes for Atletico to win this game, but they look a decent shout at slightly larger prices to score at least 2 goals here. Atletico have reached that total in 4 of 6 away games this season, only failing to hit against Barcelona and Real Madrid... In fact, take away the games against the top two sides in Spain and Atletico have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 away games in all competitions.
Espanyol have conceded 2 goals in each of their last two home games and have also conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 9 home games going back to last season. At 1.92, I will back Atletico to become the latest side to hit that mark.
MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Swansea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.40 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Barcelona Win to Nil @ 2.30 Coral (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
October Update: 12-7-1, + 11.58 Units (26 Units Staked, + 44.54% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Saturday, 5 October 2013
Weekend Football Picks 2013 (October 5-6)
The last weekend was one of the toughest ones I have had this season and really hurt the September total, although at least the profit/loss moved back in the right direction. The Champions League games this week also saw a few surprise results come through and now we have the final domestic weekend before the latest round of international fixtures.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: It's become a little murkier to predict this game after the way Manchester City played on Wednesday and there could be a slight hangover to overcome, especially with the early kick off.
However, Manchester City have been playing very well at home and I think it will be tough for Everton to impose their passing game in the manner that Roberto Martinez demands. The absence of Gareth Barry is also a big loss for the way the Spaniard sets up his team and Manchester City should find room to exploit through the middle of the park.
The layers aren't taking any chances with any of the prices for this game, except they are offering a big looking 2.20 on Manchester City winning this by at least 2 goals. City have been dominant at home in domestic games and will create chances, particularly against an Everton team that has conceded a fair few goals to open the season.
I am expecting a reaction from the home team and will back them on the Asian Handicap to overcome what had been a nemesis of theirs in recent seasons.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United Pick: This is one of those games that both Malky Mackay and Alan Pardew would have circled ahead of the international break as one their respective teams can win.
Cardiff City have struggled for goals at times this season, failing to score in their last 2 home games in the Premier League, but they will create chances against this defence that Newcastle United will likely start.
It will be a case of whether they can take those chances if they want to get something out of the game as Newcastle United have shown their own ability to create chances with the talent they have. They have scored twice in their last couple of games away from home, but the amount they have conceded shows that Pardew hasn't found the balance between attack and defence.
I would be surprised if there aren't goals in this one and I'll back over 2.5 goals in this game.
Hull City v Aston Villa Pick: Aston Villa remain a team that look far more comfortable playing away from home than they do at Villa Park, although don't let Manchester City fans hear you say that after last weekend.
To be fair, any team that will come on to Villa will play to the latter's strengths as it allows Paul Lambert's men to use their pace on the counter attack and we saw some of those attributes last week. Gabby Agbonlahor's return to the side is a help, but Villa are still missing Christian Benteke and Hull City are well organised and will make life tough for them at the KC Stadium.
Hull will miss Robbie Brady which hurts their attacking chances, and it has to be said that the Tigers haven't had a lot of goals in them in their home games where the onus is on them to get forward.
This does have the feeling of being a tight game and I think both managers will be happy with 11 and 10 points respectively that they will move on to if they earn a point in this one. With less than a fifth of the season played, both Hull and Villa will see that as a strong platform to build upon this winter as they look to get to the 40 point mark that signals safety in the Division in most seasons and I can see this being a low-scoring draw.
Sunderland v Manchester United Pick: This is an important game for both teams as neither will be full of confidence following recent results in the Premier League, but both Sunderland and Manchester United will look at this game as a vital way to improve morale into the international break.
The Stadium of Light has proved to be almost a home away from home for Manchester United, but they have rarely won here with a wide margin. In fact, their last 5 games here has resulted in Manchester United winning 4 by a minimum margin while the other has resulted in a goalless draw.
David Moyes will not be setting his team up with a goal of winning this game by a large margin- it is clear that Manchester United need three points and they will be happy if that comes by the slimmest of margins.
Even at Shakhtar Donetsk, we saw United slip back and defend what they had once they took the lead. I can see something similar happening in this game if United are leading with twenty minutes to play and the bottom line of the win is far more important than the performance.
Of course the concern for Sunderland is the amount of goals they have conceded of late so they may be focusing on getting better in that aspect during the week. I do fancy United to win this one, but I will pick them to do so by a one goal margin.
Levante v Real Madrid Pick: This has not been an easy away fixture for Real Madrid in recent seasons and I think this has the making of another tight game, especially with Levante being quite solid at home so far.
However, they haven't faced the attacking talent on show in this one and I do expect Real Madrid will be able to win their second game in a row at the Cuitat de Valencia, although they may have to do it the hard way as they have in both away wins in the League this season.
I know Real Madrid are capable of making this look a foolish pick whenever they hit their 'A' game, but I will back the away side to win by one goal exactly. They are still getting into their stride and while Real Madrid can't afford to drop more points, I think Levante can be competitive enough to keep this close and do have every chance of nicking something from the game.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: I have been torn between two picks for this game between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United as both look like being potential winners.
The lack of goals in the West Ham United team in recent games along with Tottenham's defensive strength should allow the home side to win this one with another clean sheet as they go into the international break with a lot of confidence behind them for a big season.
I do think Andre Villas-Boas is setting his side up to be tough to break down and while West Ham have players like Kevin Nolan who can always pop up with a goal, I expect Spurs to win this one with another clean sheet earned against West Ham.
West Brom v Arsenal Pick: The arrival of Mesut Ozil has given Arsenal another crease to their attacking play, but I do still need to be convinced about how far this team can go considering they have played 3 clubs that currently occupy the bottom 6 of the Premier League.
However, I can see them extending their winning run in this game as West Brom haven't been at their best at home and also have a poor record against Arsenal here in recent seasons.
It's hard to imagine West Brom preventing this Arsenal team from scoring here, but the Gunners have also conceded goals at home after such a solid performance defensively in away games last season. Arsenal haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 5 away games in all competitions so there is a real chance West Brom can extend that, although I still fancy the away side to score.
Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in 4 straight League games here and I will take a Paddy Power market on this week.
Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo Pick: Diego Simieone continues to get the best out of his Atletico Madrid team that sold Falcao in the summer and they may just be the biggest threat to Barcelona in the Spanish title race.
They should be too strong for Celta Vigo in this game, although the early Sunday kick off isn't always the best for the big sides. Even with that in mind, the quality in the Atletico team looks to be too much for Celta and they have scored plenty of goals so far this season.
Celta won't be under-estimated considering their win at Real Betis, but they have lost a bit of form and confidence since that impressive win and it is a big ask for them to prevent Atletico increasing their 100% record in the League.
However, it wouldn't be a surprise if Celta scored considering they have 4 away goals already this season and Atletico have only kept 1 clean sheet here in 7 games here in all competitions. The fact that Almeria and Osasuna have scored here suggests Celta can and I will back Atletico to win a game where both teams score.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Cardiff City-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hull City-Aston Villa Draw @ 3.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Real Madrid to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.45 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal Win and 3 or 4 Total Goals in Match @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
October Update: 3-4-1, - 2.15 Units (12 Units Staked, - 17.92% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Manchester City v Everton Pick: It's become a little murkier to predict this game after the way Manchester City played on Wednesday and there could be a slight hangover to overcome, especially with the early kick off.
However, Manchester City have been playing very well at home and I think it will be tough for Everton to impose their passing game in the manner that Roberto Martinez demands. The absence of Gareth Barry is also a big loss for the way the Spaniard sets up his team and Manchester City should find room to exploit through the middle of the park.
The layers aren't taking any chances with any of the prices for this game, except they are offering a big looking 2.20 on Manchester City winning this by at least 2 goals. City have been dominant at home in domestic games and will create chances, particularly against an Everton team that has conceded a fair few goals to open the season.
I am expecting a reaction from the home team and will back them on the Asian Handicap to overcome what had been a nemesis of theirs in recent seasons.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United Pick: This is one of those games that both Malky Mackay and Alan Pardew would have circled ahead of the international break as one their respective teams can win.
Cardiff City have struggled for goals at times this season, failing to score in their last 2 home games in the Premier League, but they will create chances against this defence that Newcastle United will likely start.
It will be a case of whether they can take those chances if they want to get something out of the game as Newcastle United have shown their own ability to create chances with the talent they have. They have scored twice in their last couple of games away from home, but the amount they have conceded shows that Pardew hasn't found the balance between attack and defence.
I would be surprised if there aren't goals in this one and I'll back over 2.5 goals in this game.
Hull City v Aston Villa Pick: Aston Villa remain a team that look far more comfortable playing away from home than they do at Villa Park, although don't let Manchester City fans hear you say that after last weekend.
To be fair, any team that will come on to Villa will play to the latter's strengths as it allows Paul Lambert's men to use their pace on the counter attack and we saw some of those attributes last week. Gabby Agbonlahor's return to the side is a help, but Villa are still missing Christian Benteke and Hull City are well organised and will make life tough for them at the KC Stadium.
Hull will miss Robbie Brady which hurts their attacking chances, and it has to be said that the Tigers haven't had a lot of goals in them in their home games where the onus is on them to get forward.
This does have the feeling of being a tight game and I think both managers will be happy with 11 and 10 points respectively that they will move on to if they earn a point in this one. With less than a fifth of the season played, both Hull and Villa will see that as a strong platform to build upon this winter as they look to get to the 40 point mark that signals safety in the Division in most seasons and I can see this being a low-scoring draw.
Sunderland v Manchester United Pick: This is an important game for both teams as neither will be full of confidence following recent results in the Premier League, but both Sunderland and Manchester United will look at this game as a vital way to improve morale into the international break.
The Stadium of Light has proved to be almost a home away from home for Manchester United, but they have rarely won here with a wide margin. In fact, their last 5 games here has resulted in Manchester United winning 4 by a minimum margin while the other has resulted in a goalless draw.
David Moyes will not be setting his team up with a goal of winning this game by a large margin- it is clear that Manchester United need three points and they will be happy if that comes by the slimmest of margins.
Even at Shakhtar Donetsk, we saw United slip back and defend what they had once they took the lead. I can see something similar happening in this game if United are leading with twenty minutes to play and the bottom line of the win is far more important than the performance.
Of course the concern for Sunderland is the amount of goals they have conceded of late so they may be focusing on getting better in that aspect during the week. I do fancy United to win this one, but I will pick them to do so by a one goal margin.
Levante v Real Madrid Pick: This has not been an easy away fixture for Real Madrid in recent seasons and I think this has the making of another tight game, especially with Levante being quite solid at home so far.
However, they haven't faced the attacking talent on show in this one and I do expect Real Madrid will be able to win their second game in a row at the Cuitat de Valencia, although they may have to do it the hard way as they have in both away wins in the League this season.
I know Real Madrid are capable of making this look a foolish pick whenever they hit their 'A' game, but I will back the away side to win by one goal exactly. They are still getting into their stride and while Real Madrid can't afford to drop more points, I think Levante can be competitive enough to keep this close and do have every chance of nicking something from the game.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: I have been torn between two picks for this game between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United as both look like being potential winners.
The lack of goals in the West Ham United team in recent games along with Tottenham's defensive strength should allow the home side to win this one with another clean sheet as they go into the international break with a lot of confidence behind them for a big season.
I do think Andre Villas-Boas is setting his side up to be tough to break down and while West Ham have players like Kevin Nolan who can always pop up with a goal, I expect Spurs to win this one with another clean sheet earned against West Ham.
West Brom v Arsenal Pick: The arrival of Mesut Ozil has given Arsenal another crease to their attacking play, but I do still need to be convinced about how far this team can go considering they have played 3 clubs that currently occupy the bottom 6 of the Premier League.
However, I can see them extending their winning run in this game as West Brom haven't been at their best at home and also have a poor record against Arsenal here in recent seasons.
It's hard to imagine West Brom preventing this Arsenal team from scoring here, but the Gunners have also conceded goals at home after such a solid performance defensively in away games last season. Arsenal haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 5 away games in all competitions so there is a real chance West Brom can extend that, although I still fancy the away side to score.
Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in 4 straight League games here and I will take a Paddy Power market on this week.
Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo Pick: Diego Simieone continues to get the best out of his Atletico Madrid team that sold Falcao in the summer and they may just be the biggest threat to Barcelona in the Spanish title race.
They should be too strong for Celta Vigo in this game, although the early Sunday kick off isn't always the best for the big sides. Even with that in mind, the quality in the Atletico team looks to be too much for Celta and they have scored plenty of goals so far this season.
Celta won't be under-estimated considering their win at Real Betis, but they have lost a bit of form and confidence since that impressive win and it is a big ask for them to prevent Atletico increasing their 100% record in the League.
However, it wouldn't be a surprise if Celta scored considering they have 4 away goals already this season and Atletico have only kept 1 clean sheet here in 7 games here in all competitions. The fact that Almeria and Osasuna have scored here suggests Celta can and I will back Atletico to win a game where both teams score.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Cardiff City-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hull City-Aston Villa Draw @ 3.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Real Madrid to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.45 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal Win and 3 or 4 Total Goals in Match @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
October Update: 3-4-1, - 2.15 Units (12 Units Staked, - 17.92% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Saturday, 9 March 2013
Weekend Football Picks (March 9-11)
Here comes another weekend of football and I can't wait for Sunday so Manchester United can help erase what has been one of the worst ways to lose a Champions League tie that I remember. I could have handled a defeat, but the manner of the loss is unacceptable and I just have struggled to enjoy any football since then.
Now is the time to 'move on' as Sir Alex put it in his weekly press conference and the manager is correct- this is a big chance for United to go on and win the Double, while the Premier League was always the number one priority this season. The FA Cup would be a nice bonus to add, especially considering it has been so long since United last won that trophy and beating Chelsea this weekend would mean the competition will surely come down to United v Manchester City, even though Everton could be a threat.
Everton v Wigan Athletic Pick: This FA Cup Sixth Round game sees Everton begin as the big favourites and I think that is reasonable as Roberto Martinez has been one to rotate his squad for the Cup competitions this season.
It would have been a difficult tie at the DW Stadium, but I do think Everton have a significant edge at Goodison Park and will find a way to get through and move into the Semi Final of the FA Cup for the second season in succession.
Everton don't get many clean sheets though and that could be something that gives Wigan Athletic some real confidence for the tie, but I don't think it is enough to have me believing there will be much of a shock in this one. I think Everton are likely 2-1 or 3-1 winners and dutching those scores together looks the best way to get involved in this game.
Manchester City v Barnsley Pick: This is another game where I think the home favourite will end up winning the game and I believe Manchester City will be fairly comfortable as they look to win this Cup for the second time in three seasons. City have already crushed two Championship teams so far in their run to the Sixth Round and I can see Barnsley ending up down the same road.
With a strong home team expected, I think City will likely come out very confident and should be able to create plenty of chances. They have a week before their next game and the FA Cup is arguably more important than League games with Manchester United running away with that and unlikely to slip up as they did last season.
The question for me is how many do City go on and win by and I believe they will get something similar to what they did to Leeds United in the last Round. Dutching 4-0 and 5-0 scorelines look reasonable with the way City have performed at home in recent weeks and I think the home side win in straightforward fashion.
Norwich City v Southampton Pick: I can understand why a lot of people think Norwich City are a good thing in this game because their most recent game at home produced a 2-1 win, but that is their only success in 11 games in the Premier League and a lack of goals has to be a worry.
Norwich are still in a position where they could be dragged into a relegation scrap and I think they have been struggling a little in recent weeks. On the other hand, Southampton have put in some good performances, but haven't been getting the results that their play perhaps deserved.
I will say that the Saints were poor in their home defeat to Queens Park Rangers last weekend, but they do have goals in the side and that could help them secure what would be a vital three points from this game. They have led at Wigan Athletic, Manchester United and Newcastle United in recent weeks, but not seen the job through in any of those games and only have the point from Wigan to show for their efforts.
However, I can see Southampton holding Norwich out if they take the lead in this one and I think the Saints have to be backed for a big three points.
Queens Park Rangers v Sunderland Pick: When a team has struggled to win as much as Queens Park Rangers have done in the Premier League this season, it is hard to back them with any kind of confidence. However, I do believe this is the kind of game they will win to give themselves a chance of survival in the top flight and Sunderland's recent away form suggests the home side will secure the three points.
The return of Loic Remy is big news for Harry Redknapp, particularly with his Rangers side having failed to score in 5 straight home games, but I think the Frenchman could make the difference for them in this game.
Sunderland are definitely not out of danger, but they have lost at Reading recently and they don't inspire me on their travels. To make matters more difficult for them, Sunderland are facing a Queens Park Rangers defence that has definitely been improved at Loftus Road.
It will be tight and tense in this part of West London on Saturday, but I have a feeling Queens Park Rangers sneak the win and give themselves real confidence of beating the drop.
Reading v Aston Villa Pick: I don't know who will win this game, although gun to my head would have me pointing to the away side.
While I don't know who wins, I will be totally surprised if we didn't see at least 3 goals in the game as both sides have been shocking defensively while also finding ways to score goals. Reading home games have featured a lot of goals in recent weeks, including that embarrassing 0-3 reverse against Wigan Athletic, while Aston Villa have seemingly been more comfortable away from Villa Park and are perhaps unfortunate not to have more wins under their belt.
My only concern against goals is that both managers will be extra cautious in what is a classic 'relegation six pointer', but I can't imagine either would be confident in relying on their defences and may just take the policy that 'attack is the best form of defence'.
There will certainly be goalscorers on the field and I'd be very surprised if this doesn't have goals in it and hopefully an early one gets the ball rolling on Saturday.
Barcelona v Deportivo La Coruna Pick: Barcelona are coming off back to back defeats against Real Madrid and you have to think they have been stewing all week. They will also want to build some confidence ahead of a big game against Milan in the Champions League as they bid to overturn a 2-0 first leg deficit back in the Nou Camp.
Despite the defeat to Real Madrid in the Cup here, Barcelona have remained dominant in the League at home and they continue to score a lot of goals here. That doesn't bode well for the bottom club in La Liga, especially as Deportivo La Coruna have been conceding a fair few goals in recent away games, including 6 at Atletico Madrid.
Deportivo also conceded 5 at home to Barcelona and it is tough to see them keeping this one close. I like Barcelona to score 4 at least in this one and I think that'll be enough to cover the large spread.
Millwall v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Neither one of these teams have been in anything like good form since booking their place in the Sixth Round of the FA Cup and that makes it difficult to figure out which of these sides makes it through to the Semi Final at Wembley Stadium.
Goals have been a problem for both teams, but I do believe Blackburn have the more 'natural' finishers, especially ever since Millwall lost Chris Wood in the January transfer window. That may make all the difference in this one as I can't imagine either defence going through the game without offering up at least a couple of chances to the attacking players.
I'd only have a small interest in Blackburn winning the game as they haven't been inspiring at all since beating Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium and that does reduce my enthusiasm for them winning this one.
Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: We all know what happened to Manchester United on Tuesday evening so I am not going back over old ground- however, I expect that result to inspire a performance from them in this one and I do think United will be too strong for Chelsea.
Chelsea have also come off a loss as they were beaten in Steaua Bucharest and the team are just not playing that well at the moment. I don't think they should be under-estimated, but Manchester United have been playing far better in recent weeks and look like a team with enough goals to find a way to come through the tie.
I expect Sir Alex is going to put out a very strong team in this one and I do think they can take advantage of some of the uncertainties in the Chelsea camp and will be the likely winners.
Newcastle United v Stoke City Pick: A long trip to Russia is not ideal just three days before a League game with Stoke City, but I do think Newcastle United have been in much better form of the two teams and pick up a vital three points to steer clear of any potential relegation troubles.
Stoke have been struggling to score goals away from home and Newcastle have looked much more comfortable since spending some money in the January transfer window and getting a few of their players back from injury problems.
This will be a tight contest, but I think Newcastle are able to handle the physical side of Stoke's play and the latter's poor away form will likely cost them another loss on their record. It will likely be tight for moments in the game, but eventually Newcastle United should have enough to take away the three points.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game certainly has the potential for goals as both sides have been finding the net with some regularity in their recent games.
Liverpool have scored 17 goals in their last 6 games at Anfield, while Spurs have been one of the more successful away teams in the League as they can really hurt teams on the counter with the pace they have in the side.
I expect both will score at least once in the game and a 2-2 draw looks very possible... Chances should be fairly frequent and I wouldn't be surprised if both Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale are troubling the scorers again.
Liverpool's last 3 games have all featured at least 4 goals, while Spurs had a 2-3 win at West Ham United recently so I'll look for at least 4 goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Everton to win 2-1 or 3-1 @ 5.65 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester City to win 4-0 or 5-0 @ 5.63 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.30 William Hill (1 Unit)
Reading-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barcelona - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Blackburn Rovers @ 3.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Now is the time to 'move on' as Sir Alex put it in his weekly press conference and the manager is correct- this is a big chance for United to go on and win the Double, while the Premier League was always the number one priority this season. The FA Cup would be a nice bonus to add, especially considering it has been so long since United last won that trophy and beating Chelsea this weekend would mean the competition will surely come down to United v Manchester City, even though Everton could be a threat.
Everton v Wigan Athletic Pick: This FA Cup Sixth Round game sees Everton begin as the big favourites and I think that is reasonable as Roberto Martinez has been one to rotate his squad for the Cup competitions this season.
It would have been a difficult tie at the DW Stadium, but I do think Everton have a significant edge at Goodison Park and will find a way to get through and move into the Semi Final of the FA Cup for the second season in succession.
Everton don't get many clean sheets though and that could be something that gives Wigan Athletic some real confidence for the tie, but I don't think it is enough to have me believing there will be much of a shock in this one. I think Everton are likely 2-1 or 3-1 winners and dutching those scores together looks the best way to get involved in this game.
Manchester City v Barnsley Pick: This is another game where I think the home favourite will end up winning the game and I believe Manchester City will be fairly comfortable as they look to win this Cup for the second time in three seasons. City have already crushed two Championship teams so far in their run to the Sixth Round and I can see Barnsley ending up down the same road.
With a strong home team expected, I think City will likely come out very confident and should be able to create plenty of chances. They have a week before their next game and the FA Cup is arguably more important than League games with Manchester United running away with that and unlikely to slip up as they did last season.
The question for me is how many do City go on and win by and I believe they will get something similar to what they did to Leeds United in the last Round. Dutching 4-0 and 5-0 scorelines look reasonable with the way City have performed at home in recent weeks and I think the home side win in straightforward fashion.
Norwich City v Southampton Pick: I can understand why a lot of people think Norwich City are a good thing in this game because their most recent game at home produced a 2-1 win, but that is their only success in 11 games in the Premier League and a lack of goals has to be a worry.
Norwich are still in a position where they could be dragged into a relegation scrap and I think they have been struggling a little in recent weeks. On the other hand, Southampton have put in some good performances, but haven't been getting the results that their play perhaps deserved.
I will say that the Saints were poor in their home defeat to Queens Park Rangers last weekend, but they do have goals in the side and that could help them secure what would be a vital three points from this game. They have led at Wigan Athletic, Manchester United and Newcastle United in recent weeks, but not seen the job through in any of those games and only have the point from Wigan to show for their efforts.
However, I can see Southampton holding Norwich out if they take the lead in this one and I think the Saints have to be backed for a big three points.
Queens Park Rangers v Sunderland Pick: When a team has struggled to win as much as Queens Park Rangers have done in the Premier League this season, it is hard to back them with any kind of confidence. However, I do believe this is the kind of game they will win to give themselves a chance of survival in the top flight and Sunderland's recent away form suggests the home side will secure the three points.
The return of Loic Remy is big news for Harry Redknapp, particularly with his Rangers side having failed to score in 5 straight home games, but I think the Frenchman could make the difference for them in this game.
Sunderland are definitely not out of danger, but they have lost at Reading recently and they don't inspire me on their travels. To make matters more difficult for them, Sunderland are facing a Queens Park Rangers defence that has definitely been improved at Loftus Road.
It will be tight and tense in this part of West London on Saturday, but I have a feeling Queens Park Rangers sneak the win and give themselves real confidence of beating the drop.
Reading v Aston Villa Pick: I don't know who will win this game, although gun to my head would have me pointing to the away side.
While I don't know who wins, I will be totally surprised if we didn't see at least 3 goals in the game as both sides have been shocking defensively while also finding ways to score goals. Reading home games have featured a lot of goals in recent weeks, including that embarrassing 0-3 reverse against Wigan Athletic, while Aston Villa have seemingly been more comfortable away from Villa Park and are perhaps unfortunate not to have more wins under their belt.
My only concern against goals is that both managers will be extra cautious in what is a classic 'relegation six pointer', but I can't imagine either would be confident in relying on their defences and may just take the policy that 'attack is the best form of defence'.
There will certainly be goalscorers on the field and I'd be very surprised if this doesn't have goals in it and hopefully an early one gets the ball rolling on Saturday.
Barcelona v Deportivo La Coruna Pick: Barcelona are coming off back to back defeats against Real Madrid and you have to think they have been stewing all week. They will also want to build some confidence ahead of a big game against Milan in the Champions League as they bid to overturn a 2-0 first leg deficit back in the Nou Camp.
Despite the defeat to Real Madrid in the Cup here, Barcelona have remained dominant in the League at home and they continue to score a lot of goals here. That doesn't bode well for the bottom club in La Liga, especially as Deportivo La Coruna have been conceding a fair few goals in recent away games, including 6 at Atletico Madrid.
Deportivo also conceded 5 at home to Barcelona and it is tough to see them keeping this one close. I like Barcelona to score 4 at least in this one and I think that'll be enough to cover the large spread.
Millwall v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Neither one of these teams have been in anything like good form since booking their place in the Sixth Round of the FA Cup and that makes it difficult to figure out which of these sides makes it through to the Semi Final at Wembley Stadium.
Goals have been a problem for both teams, but I do believe Blackburn have the more 'natural' finishers, especially ever since Millwall lost Chris Wood in the January transfer window. That may make all the difference in this one as I can't imagine either defence going through the game without offering up at least a couple of chances to the attacking players.
I'd only have a small interest in Blackburn winning the game as they haven't been inspiring at all since beating Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium and that does reduce my enthusiasm for them winning this one.
Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: We all know what happened to Manchester United on Tuesday evening so I am not going back over old ground- however, I expect that result to inspire a performance from them in this one and I do think United will be too strong for Chelsea.
Chelsea have also come off a loss as they were beaten in Steaua Bucharest and the team are just not playing that well at the moment. I don't think they should be under-estimated, but Manchester United have been playing far better in recent weeks and look like a team with enough goals to find a way to come through the tie.
I expect Sir Alex is going to put out a very strong team in this one and I do think they can take advantage of some of the uncertainties in the Chelsea camp and will be the likely winners.
Newcastle United v Stoke City Pick: A long trip to Russia is not ideal just three days before a League game with Stoke City, but I do think Newcastle United have been in much better form of the two teams and pick up a vital three points to steer clear of any potential relegation troubles.
Stoke have been struggling to score goals away from home and Newcastle have looked much more comfortable since spending some money in the January transfer window and getting a few of their players back from injury problems.
This will be a tight contest, but I think Newcastle are able to handle the physical side of Stoke's play and the latter's poor away form will likely cost them another loss on their record. It will likely be tight for moments in the game, but eventually Newcastle United should have enough to take away the three points.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game certainly has the potential for goals as both sides have been finding the net with some regularity in their recent games.
Liverpool have scored 17 goals in their last 6 games at Anfield, while Spurs have been one of the more successful away teams in the League as they can really hurt teams on the counter with the pace they have in the side.
I expect both will score at least once in the game and a 2-2 draw looks very possible... Chances should be fairly frequent and I wouldn't be surprised if both Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale are troubling the scorers again.
Liverpool's last 3 games have all featured at least 4 goals, while Spurs had a 2-3 win at West Ham United recently so I'll look for at least 4 goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Everton to win 2-1 or 3-1 @ 5.65 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester City to win 4-0 or 5-0 @ 5.63 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.30 William Hill (1 Unit)
Reading-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barcelona - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Blackburn Rovers @ 3.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
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