That kind of weird situation aside, the outright picks have been a stream of disappointment after players continue to get close before failing- the failings of Novak Djokovic have hurt, while the one time I backed Rafael Nadal to win a tournament this season, he lost in the First Round at Wimbledon.
Things can swing in roundabouts and it has been a poor time- bad luck is one thing, but I have also been guilty of making some bad picks when I wasn't convinced of their suitability and that is down to me. Hopefully the US Open will provide a boost to the coffers although I am expecting a lesser success at the end of the Tour this season as the last two have provided.
Men's Tournament
First Quarter
The Number 1 seed at Flushing Meadows is still Novak Djokovic although he could very easily have been knocked off the top spot in the World Rankings by the time the Australian Open comes around in January, especially if Rafael Nadal continues displaying the form he has since his return.
Djokovic is under pressure to cement his place at the top of the Rankings in tennis viewers minds at this tournament as he currently holds just one of the Grand Slams and his two main rivals, Nadal and Andy Murray, both have the chance to hold two. The points may still call Djokovic the Number 1 player in the World for the time being, but he has to win this tournament to really show that is still the case in reality and not just the twelve month period of consistency.
Up until the Quarter Final, I expect Djokovic will be good enough to come through the draw with few problems, although Grigor Dimitrov will provide something of a test in the Third Round.
The Quarter Final has him seeded to meet Juan Martin Del Potro and the former US Open winner is certainly one of the most dangerous players in the draw. However, Del Potro can be a little vulnerable at times, especially early in the draw and the potential Second Round match against the winner of the Brian Baker-Lleyton Hewitt clash is certainly one potential banana skin before he gets to the Quarter Final.
Other players in the this section like Tommy Haas and Mikhail Youzhny are having strong seasons in their veteran status, but neither would be putting the fear of God in Juan Martin Del Potro and this is likely to be a clash between the top two seeded players in the quarter.
Novak Djokovic beat Del Potro here at the same stage last season and I would expect him to be too strong again- even at Wimbledon, Djokovic blew the chance of winning his Semi Final against the big Argentine in four sets, and he will be focused not to waste energy this time with big matches to be played after this Quarter Final.
First Quarter: Novak Djokovic with a four set win over Juan Martin Del Potro
Second Quarter
We won't be a seeing a repeat of the last US Open, Australian Open and Wimbledon Final this year as Andy Murray was dropped from his Number 2 seed by Rafael Nadal ahead of the tournament and the defending Champion has been placed in the second quarter of the draw this year.
Murray may have been given what looks a semi-awkward start against the serve-volleying of Michael Llodra, but his run through to the Quarter Finals present almost no real dangers as long as the British player is on his game.
I think the days of Murray having a real lapse in the Grand Slams have gone now that he has two under his belt, although this is the first time he enters a Slam as a defending Champion. I don't foresee that producing early problems and there is not one player in the top half of this quarter that I think could take more than a set off of Murray in a best of five at Grand Slam level.
It does seem Murray has been a touch fortunate on that front because the bottom half of the draw has a couple of real awkward characters in it. The favourite to get through to the Quarter Final will be Tomas Berdych, who reached the Semi Final here last year and also beat Murray in Cincinnati earlier this month.
Berdych should come through the early Rounds with few problems, but he can be wildly erratic on his day and there have been a number of Grand Slam tournaments where he has been a surprise early casualty in the seeded ranks. However, I would expect him to come through to face either Kevin Anderson or Stanislas Wawrinka, although neither of those players has shown the form at the Masters tournaments to think they would be able to stop what should be a confident Berdych by the Fourth Round.
Andy Murray v Tomas Berdych is a very interesting match up- Berdych leads the head to head, but Murray adapted to the terrible conditions better than Berdych did when they met in the Semi Final here last year to level their Grand Slam matches at 1-1. There is no doubt that Berdych has the power and the mentality to knock off Murray and may well be aided by the fact that it will be for a place in the Semi Final rather than the Final... It is hard to go against Murray considering his form at Wimbledon and the conditions in New York certainly are more to the Brit's liking, but Berdych could spring the surprise.
Second Quarter: Tomas Berdych in five tough sets over Andy Murray, but I hate under-estimating how good Murray is these days.
Third Quarter
Now that the big four have become the big three, there was always a real chance that one of the quarters at the US Open would be void of a really big name- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's absence from the tournament hasn't helped and it is the third quarter where we could see a surprise Semi Finalist.
Usually, David Ferrer would certainly be favoured to come through a wide open section like this one, but the Spaniard has been in terrible form this summer and I am not convinced that he is 100% healthy. He was suffering with some kind of issue at Wimbledon and whether that is still lingering means the doubts about the Number 4 seed are too real to consider him to come through.
Ferrer is a former Semi Finalist in New York so he does have the pedigree, but he didn't play well in Montreal or Cincinnati against opponents he would be expected to beat comfortably so he has to be ignored over the next two weeks.
The draw hasn't been unkind to Ferrer and gives him a chance to play his way into the tournament if I am being fair, but the potential Third Round match against Ernests Gulbis has warning signs flashing brightly all around it for the Spaniard. Gulbis has been a disappointment at Grand Slam level for the most part and I have been expecting him to make a push at this level at the last two events at the French Open and Wimbledon, but it hasn't come as it perhaps should have with the talent he possesses.
Gulbis should get through to the Third Round comfortably, but the match up on a usual day against the terrier like performance of Ferrer would not be a great one. However, on current form, you have to say that the Latvian has a huge chance of emulating his best performance here by reaching the Fourth Round.
I am not convinced that Gulbis has enough to hold himself together mentally for enough best of five set matches to get through to the Semi Final and we may yet have to wait a few more months before he is ready to have his best year on the Tour. Dangerous players like Jerzy Janowicz, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic and possibly Feliciano Lopez are perhaps better players to look at as a surprise Semi Finalist.
Janowicz can at least point to the fact that he reached that position at Wimbledon, although an injury to his forearm has to be a concern, while the other three players I mentioned have all got fragile mental strengths.
Third Quarter: Either Richard Gasquet, who has a very nice draw, or Jerzy Janowicz if he proves to be healthy and ready to go.
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw sees two old rivals once more on a collision path, although it will actually be the first time they have met in New York despite long and illustrious careers.
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are two of the most famous names in men's tennis, but have traded places when it comes to favouritism on the hard courts and I would be extremely surprised if many have tipped Federer to get the better of the Spaniard here when you consider recent form of these two players.
There shouldn't be an under-estimation of Nadal's first opponent this week as he meets Ryan Harrison, one of the big hopes of American tennis, although I can't see the youngster have enough flashy winners to keep Nadal at bay in a best of five set match.
Other awkward matches against an in-from Vasek Pospisil and John Isner are also ahead of Nadal before the Quarter Final, but as long as he remains focused, he would expect to win those matches.
Unlike Nadal, Roger Federer has a chance to play himself into the tournament and I would expect the Swiss man to still have too much in the tank for Sam Querrey in a potential Third Round match. A bigger concern may be a potential Fourth Round clash with the talented, but extremely inconsistent, Kei Nishikori- the Japanese player has beaten Federer already this season and has the game to certainly trouble the 17 time Grand Slam Champion, although there is no guarantee he gets through someone like Bernard Tomic or Tommy Robredo.
If we do end up seeing Nadal v Federer for the first time in New York, I would be surprised if the former isn't the winner... He has always had the style to give Federer problems, but the lack of confidence in some of Federer's play over the course of the season means I could not back him to win that match and you can't ignore the fact that Nadal has a strong winning record against Federer on this surface.
Fourth Quarter: It has to be Rafael Nadal who will be battle hardened by the time he reaches the Semi Final
Winner
If Rafael Nadal's knees are holding up on the hard courts, which he clearly must feel after back to back Masters wins in Montreal and Cincinnati, then it is hard to see anyone taking out the Spaniard before the Final from the bottom half of the draw.
The best of five nature of a Grand Slam does raise some doubts about Nadal's fitness, especially the way he went down at Wimbledon, but his form in the two Masters events certainly makes him the man to beat as far as I am concerned.
We may see a repeat of the 2010 and 2011 Finals here at the US Open as I do think Novak Djokovic is going to be the last man standing from the top half of the draw, although he has fallen in some big matches earlier this season in a concerning manner.
His previous Indian sign over Rafael Nadal has not been there in their recent matches and back to back matches against Juan Martin Del Potro and potentially Andy Murray is a big ask before facing Nadal, although the men's Final has been moved to the Monday.
Current form dictates that the favourite is correct at the tournament with Rafael Nadal leading the way, especially with the way the draw has panned out and the Spaniard will be my pick.
My other pick from the men's draw will be taking Richard Gasquet to come out of the third quarter- I am the first to say that it is an open draw and anyone could come through, but the Frenchman has been given what looks a favourable draw on paper and looks far too big a price. If he has a tough Quarter Final, it could be worth laying him off then, but I will put Gasquet in my staking plan to win the third quarter.
Women's Tournament
First Quarter
There is no doubt that Serena Williams is still the player to beat in any tournament she enters and it is no surprise that she will be going off as an odds on favourite to win this tournament as defending Champion, especially with Maria Sharapova out of the draw.
However, Williams can be vulnerable early in tournaments and she can always be upset as she has been in Australia and England in Slams this season and there is one player in her section that will know how to upset Serena at the very highest level.
Sloane Stephens is a potential Fourth Round opponent who beat Serena at the Australian Open back in January and she has the confidence to upset the apple-cart as shown with her win over Maria Sharapova this summer. If Williams and Stephens met 10 times on a hard court, I would back Serena to win the match 9 times, but there is every chance that the young American could cause a huge sensation in the Fourth Round.
Another former US Open is also in the first quarter of the draw, but Serena's older sister Venus Williams is not the player of old and I would be surprised to see her in the second week of the tournament. Angelique Kerber has reached the Semi Final here before, but her form hasn't been great this summer and she has found herself coming up a little short a few times in 2013.
First Quarter: Serena Williams can't be opposed in 99 out of 100 occasions with the draw as it is, but Sloane Stephens is a live threat.
Second Quarter
The women's event is very top heavy according to the layers and this second quarter of the draw looks one that could be one by a number of players, although the third and fourth favourites to win the US Open are both amongst the players in it.
Agnieszka Radwanska and Na Li have both reached Finals at Grand Slam events in their careers, although the former is yet to pick up her first Major prize.
Out of the two players, I would give the edge to Radwanska with the draw as Li has a couple of tough matches that could potentially make her path to the Quarter Final that much more awkward. Li was beaten by Laura Robson here last season and that could be a Third Round match this year, although Robson has been struggling with an injury.
After that, Jelena Jankovic could be waiting for Li and the Serb could be a dangerous player after reaching the Semi Final in Cincinnati earlier in the month. However, Jankovic is very hit and miss on her day and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary if she is beaten before that potential Fourth Round match.
Li has a decent record against Radwanska in recent meetings, while I am not sure what state of mind the Polish player will be in after the recent passing of her grandfather which has affected her hugely considering the impact he had on her life.
Second Quarter: Na Li can be so erratic at times, but she looks the pick of the players in this section
Third Quarter
Another section of the women's draw that really looks wide open is the the third quarter and we could see another surprise Semi Finalist from this one.
The likes of Caroline Wozniacki, Roberta Vinci, Maria Kirilenko, Simona Halep and Sara Errani will all have their supporters, but there are also some doubts about form, fitness and ability on the hard courts.
Sara Errani was a Semi Finalist last season when she beat her fellow Italian Roberta Vinci in the Quarter Final and there is every chance there could be a repeat of that Quarter Final this year, although Vinci will feel she can turn that around after beating her doubles partner twice in a row.
This is an extremely difficult section to pick a winner from as there are just too many doubts to really give me a chance to pick someone with conviction.
Third Quarter: Really tough part of the draw, but Sara Errani is probably the most consistent player.
Fourth Quarter
The second favourite to win the US Open is Victoria Azarenka and she will have plenty of supporters after beating Serena Williams for the title in Cincinnati and coming so close to winning this Grand Slam last season.
However, there are dangers lurking around every corner of the final quarter of the Women's draw and she will have to negotiate a minefield to go all the way this year.
Alize Cornet has shown very strong consistency on the hard courts this summer and could pose some problems in the Third Round after giving Azarenka all she could handle at the French Open, while Dominika Cibulkova has won the big tournament in Stanford and is a possible Fourth Round opponent.
Even the other half of the draw is not straight-forward as Sam Stosur, a former US Open Champion and winner in Carlsbad with a win over Azarenka in the Final and Petra Kvitova are both very capable players on their day.
Azarenka would start as the favourite against both, especially considering she had owned the head to head against Stosur before the defeat earlier this month, and the win in Cincinnati should have filled the World Number 2 with plenty of confidence.
The hard courts remain her favourite surface and Victoria Azarenka has all the makings of a player that could go very deep this week.
Fourth Quarter: Victoria Azarenka can negotiate a minefield and reach the Semi Final from a tough section
Winner
I am not trying to be overly smart here and anything other than a Serena Williams win would constitute a surprise and the layers would certainly feel the same way with the American odds on to take the title away for the second year in a row.
However, Victoria Azarenka is certainly not afraid of going toe to toe with Williams and she had a chance to win the title here in New York last year, while the win over Williams in Cincinnati will also make her a bigger believer that she can win the title here.
If Williams is surprised early as happened in Melbourne and London, Azarenka will shorten rapidly and I will back her in the outright market here.
I did also say the third quarter of the draw is a tough one to get a real feel for, but Sara Errani looks a big price to win that section in the event. I was surprised that she is double the price that Caroline Wozniacki is in the section and Errani did reach the Semi Final a year ago, although she hasn't had the best summer.
If Errani can come through her first two matches, she may have the momentum behind her to come through this tricky section and I'll have a small interest in keeping her on board.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Richard Gasquet to win Third Quarter @ 9.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka @ 4.50 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sara Errani to win Third Quarter @ 7.00 Coral (1 Unit)
Tennis Outright Picks (August 12-18): 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (August 12-18): 18-18, + 0.52 Units (71 Units Staked, + 0.7% Yield)
Season 2013: + 10.62 Units (1104.5 Units Staked, + 1.01% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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