US Open Day 5 Picks 2013 (August 30th)

It has been an interesting few days at the US Open with the retirement of James Blake on Wednesday evening after he failed to covert a 2-0 lead in sets into a victory against Ivo Karlovic.

We have also seen a few upsets, mainly on the women's side of the tournament, although Dan Evans is responsible for back to back upset wins on the men's side.

It has been a really strong week for Evans who will be flying up the Rankings at the end of the tournament here and that means getting the chance to qualify for some of the main Tour events towards the end of season and going on to next season. Evans has shown flashes of potential in his Davis Cup performances for Great Britain against much higher Ranked opponents, but he finally seems to be knuckling down and applying himself fully to the demands and rigours of the full Tour.

He is reaping the rewards of his hard work and becomes the second Brit to surprise at this Grand Slam following the exploits of Laura Robson last year.


On Friday, we will be moving on to the Third Round action in the women's draw, while the men will get to complete the remaining Second Round matches. At the time of writing this, the schedule for Friday has been released, but not all the markets are readily available at the moment so I will post the picks and update of the weeks totals in the hours ahead of Day 5 action picking up.


Florian Mayer - 1.5 sets v Donald Young: I have no doubt that there was something not quite right with Martin Klizan in the First Round match against Donald Young so I have to take the result with a pinch of salt and not use it as the basis of Young being in tremendous form.

Klizan had drifted in the market all day before that match and then won just 2 games in three sets against the former high hope in the US men's tennis game. This should prove to be a totally different test for Young and I can't help think that Florian Mayer has been under-estimated in the match.

Anyone who has seen Mayer play knows he is an awkward opponent that uses a bunch of variation to force errors and put his opponents in strange positions on the court. He will force Young to play a lot of tough balls and the German has a chance of surpassing his win total from last year so is clearly still capable while also playing at a higher level than Young this season.

There will be confidence in the American having qualified for the tournament and come through the First Round, but he hasn't shown a consistent level of form this season and I see Mayer being a little too experienced and come through in three or four sets.


Kevin Anderson - 4.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: Marcos Baghdatis came through his First Round match with barely a blip, but I am not convinced the Cypriot is in great form after some heavy defeats in the weeks and months leading up to the US Open.

He will be facing a tough opponent in Kevin Anderson who is capable of putting some pressure on Baghdatis behind his own serve and I think that pressure will be rewarded with chances to break the Baghdatis serve.

The Cypriot has lost 14 of his last 16 matches on the main Tour ahead of the First Round here, and the manner of some of his defeats have been particularly disappointing. Baghdatis may be good enough to sneak a set in this one if Anderson is serving a low first serve percentage as he did for periods in his win over Daniel Brands, but I do still think the big South African comes through 64, 64, 67, 63.


Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 v Lleyton Hewitt: Lleyton Hewitt didn't play great tennis in his win over Brian Baker in the First Round, but a match of this magnitude with the limelight on it as the opening of the evening session should inspire him.

Hewitt has always enjoyed playing the big servers on the Tour as his return of serve can nullify what they bring to the table. He will also be confident he can give Juan Martin Del Potro all he can handle having won their 2 previous matches this season and also holding a Grand Slam win over the Argentine, albeit on Hewitt's favoured surface grass.

Del Potro is also guilty of losing some concentration at times and we saw that in the First Round as he dropped a set against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and any such loss will see him drop a set in my opinion.

I think this could be a fascinating match under the lights today and I'll take the higher seeded player to come through in four quality sets.


Laura Robson + 5.5 games v Na Li: There are some concerns as to how Laura Robson's wrist is doing after she took a medical time out in the last match she played, although she made it clear that it was just a change in bandaging and there is nothing to worry about.

This seems to be a lot of games to be giving Robson who is very comfortable at Flushing Meadows and who has served so effectively. Her return game is still a bit iffy and if that was a bit more solid, she would have seen off Caroline Garcia very easily in the last Round after making too shanked returns at key points.

Na Li is a top quality player, but has to overcome the mental burden of losing to Robson at the same stage last season, but she is certainly capable of doing that with the way she takes the court. Li has played very well in her first two matches here and she has also been in good form at Toronto and Cincinnati ahead of this tournament so I am not under-estimating how much quality she will be bringing to the table.

The problem for Li is whether she can hold her serve enough and break enough times to cover this spread, which I already mentioned is quite a bit higher than I anticipated. Robson will be confident and has generally raised her level against the best players on the Tour so I will take the games in this one.


MY PICKS: Florian Mayer - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kevin Anderson - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Laura Robson + 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 14-18, - 4.15 Units (51 Units Staked, - 8.14% Yield)