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Tuesday 27 August 2013

US Open Day 3 Picks 2013 (August 28th)

After the disappointment of the first day of the tournament, it was at least a little more of a productive second day at the US Open, although there are still some matches being played at the time I am writing this.

We have seen most of the players come through their first matches at the tournament, although Andy Murray has been given the short straw in that he has had to wait until the third day to open up his defence of the title he won last year. There are suggestions of wet weather tomorrow evening and that could mean Murray is still to play his first match at the tournament while some of his rivals will be getting ready for their Second Round matches.


From what I have seen, there doesn't seem to be a lot of contenders in the women's tournament to beat the top two players- Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki were particularly disappointing against limited opponents and it would be a surprise if either of those players are still around in ten days time unless performances improve markedly going forward.

Roger Federer came through his delayed match with very few problems, but his tests will definitely be tougher than what Grega Zemlja brought to the court.


The tournament moves on to the Second Round for the women's event, while the men's First Round matches will be completed on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the layers have again been delaying their markets so the picks will be put up hours before the matches begin on Wednesday.


Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 v Brian Baker: Brian Baker has one of the best stories of players on the Tour as a promising junior player had to wait a number of years, overcome a number of injuries, before making a return to the senior Tour and reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon.

That happened last season for Baker, but another major injury at the Australian Open means the American player missed the majority of 2013 and has only recently made it back to the Tour. This is a tough First Round match for him against the veteran Lleyton Hewitt and while I don't think Baker wins, I think he is good enough to take a set.

A lot of that is down to the fact that Hewitt isn't dominant behind serve and he will give Baker an opportunity to take a set- I also think Baker plays solid enough tennis for a 35-40 minute period which should put him in a strong position to take at least one set, although Hewitt will need to be careful that he doesn't allow Baker to build too much momentum.

Hwitt hasn't played a lot of tennis this summer because he would have had to qualify for the Masters tournaments in Montreal and Cincinnati so decided to skip those events. The US Open has been a good event for him in his prime years and I do think Hewitt comes through in tough four sets.


Ivo Karlovic v James Blake: It was announced prior to the beginning of the US Open that James Blake was going to call time on his career- Blake has got the best out of his game by reaching World Number 4 and that occurred after a freak accident on the court where he fractured his neck and I think the American should be proud of what he achieved.

This is potentially his last ever match though as Ivo Karlovic has the confidence of qualifying for the tournament and his big serve could prove a little too much for Blake to overcome. Blake is very aggressive on return which will pose Karlovic some problems, but the big man likes closing the net and it will be tough for Blake to continuously pass him over a best of five set period.

The other factor is Blake's aggression working against him on his own serve as he makes a lot of unforced errors at times and Karlovic also holds the 6-3 head to head record. They haven't met for a couple of years now, but I was surprised Karlovic was the underdog and he is worth an interest.


Kevin Anderson win 3-1 v Daniel Brands: It has been a tough summer for Kevin Anderson and there are some suggestions he is running on fumes after what has been a strong 2013, his best on the Tour.

This isn't as easy a match as the layers may think as Daniel Brands has a big serve that will always aid him on the faster surfaces, although the German is erratic at best with his groundstrokes. I have seen Brands look unplayable at times, while at others he looks nothing more than a club player with a strong first serve.

I am expecting Brands to at least push Anderson for a couple of sets today and there is every chance he can split those before Anderson takes over. The South African's big serve poses problems, but he can sometimes have too low a first serve percentage to give his opponents some chances and tie-breaks are very much in play.

I do believe Anderson, the stronger player overall, will have too much when it is said and done, but may easily drop one set along the way.


Benoit Paire - 4.5 games v Alex Bogomolov: I have no doubt that Benoit Paire is one of the more over-rated players on the Tour ever since beating Juan Martin Del Potro on the clay courts a few months ago, but his opponent seems to be given a little too much credit in this one for me.

Alex Bogomolov is a decent all round player, but he doesn't really have a dominant shot in his arsenal and he can be erratic with his groundstrokes and I would expect Paire to pressure him behind his decent first serve.

However, Paire himself is hardly the model of consistency and can be an unforced error producing machine at times. He hasn't had a great summer and has some poor losses on his record throughout the course of the year, but I still am expecting a little bit more from him than I am from Bogomolov and I like the Frenchman to cover here.


Marcos Baghdatis win 3-1 v Go Soeda: A few years ago, I would have expected Marcos Baghdatis to blitz through someone like Go Soeda, but these days it should be a closer match with the latter making enough balls back in play to extract mistakes from the Cypriot's game.

Confidence has to be an issue for Baghdatis who has won a couple of matches in Washington, but otherwise has been on a long losing run on the main Tour. He was embarrassingly beaten by Fabio Fognini in Montreal and barely made the match with Julien Benneteau competitive in Cincinnati, while Soeda qualified for the main draw here and should feel ready to go.

I don't have a lot of faith in Soeda being able to win this match because of his style of play which allows opponents to sit and hit through him, especially the better players on the Tour, but Baghdatis has enough losses to think the Japanese man can steal a set, if not more.


Mikhail Youzhny win 3-1 v Nicolas Mahut: Neither one of these players would be considered strong hard court players, but I feel Mikhail Youzhny is a little over-rated and his chances of dropping a set on his way to victory is higher than the layers may think.

Youzhny rarely comes through matches without a slight dip in form, especially as he has reached veteran status, but he has the heart and determination to still win matches. His style and aggression means Youzhny can make mistakes and give opponents chances to break his serve and I also think Nicolas Mahut has a serve that can see him hold enough times to sneak a set.

Mahut's game is best suited to the grass courts where the ball keeps slightly lower when he approaches the net, making it that little bit harder to get the ball to pass him or to make his volleys difficult- the hard courts will give Youzhny a touch more room to find the angles and that is why I think the Russian comes through.

It just wouldn't surprise me if Youzhny plays a sloppy set at some point and come through in four.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Eugenie Bouchard: Like her best friend Laura Robson, Eugenie Bouchard is one of the up and coming talents on the WTA Tour but she has yet to make the breakthrough that Robson has.

This could be her chance at the US Open against a former Semi Finalist in Angelique Kerber, although I am expecting the German to be a little too tough at this moment in their respective careers.

Kerber's left handed serve can cause a few problems for Bouchard and I believe she is consistent enough to hold of the surge of form that the Canadian will show at points in the match. We saw Bouchard steal a set off of Serena Williams in Cincinnati so she is a confident player that can compete against the best players on the Tour, but Bouchard struggled mightily to come through her First Round match.

In recent weeks, Bouchard has lost fairly comfortably against two left-handed players and I like Kerber to make it a hat-trick in a 64, 63 win.


Laura Robson - 3.5 games v Caroline Garcia: This is a match that could potentially be for major titles in the coming years as both players are expected to reach the top of the women's game. However, of the two, it is Laura Robson that has already begun to make her breakthrough on the Tour, while Caroline Garcia is still finding her consistency tough to come by.

I do like the Garcia game, but Robson's is bigger and more effective at the moment and I think that will prove to be the difference as long as the British players wrist holds up.

The left-handed serve will also pose a different problem for Garcia to deal with and I think that Robson will get the cheaper points off that shot, while is a little more consistent with the groundstrokes.

It will be tough at times as Garcia's talent shouldn't let her fall away easily, but I like Robson to win 64. 64.


MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Kevin Anderson win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Benoit Paire - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Mikhail Youzhny win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Amgelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Laura Robson - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 8-9, - 0.44 Units (26 Units Staked, - 0.02% Yield)

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