It's that time of the year again as all the preparation of the last few months has been all for the opening weekend of the coming season.
The College Football world is fast moving and there can be big swings from season to season as recruiting classes are tested, while some teams are decimated by the NFL Draft. We are still a year away from the College Play Offs so once again we are likely to see some controversy as a deserved team is not in the mix to compete for a National Championship.
Alabama will be looking to make history by winning the National Championship for the fourth time in five years and while they have lost some top players to the NFL, they still look the team to beat. How will Oregon react to losing Chip Kelly? Will Johnny Football be eligible at all this year? Can the SEC be stopped as they bid to have one of their teams win the National Championship yet again? All of these kinds of questions will be answered over the coming months.
Last season, the picks had a really disappointing start which put the chance of reaching a profit behind the black ball after the first ten weeks of the season. However, a strong end to the season meant the losses were limited after all the success of the 2011 season.
Early on in the season, some teams are more concerned with getting a lot of the back ups playing time, especially when games are in hand, so I did suffer from a few back door covers early in the season after teams gave up garbage time scores to fall just under the spread.
That is something that I will keep in mind early in this new season and that should hopefully help lead me back into the same situation as 2011.
The new season also means a time for new predictions as to will be amongst the leading contenders in the nation going forward. Below you will see my picks for each Division and Conference and a small blurb as to why I think they will win:
SEC West: Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0, 8-0)- They may have lost some pieces from the team that won the National Championship last season, but Alabama have recruited well over the years and there is enough here to think they go close to winning the whole thing for a third time in a row.
The game at Texas A&M is going to be key but Nick Saban has a strong record when trying to overturn a loss to an opponent, Alabama have two weeks to prepare for that game and all the furore around Johnny Manziel means his eligibility is in question for the season.
The rest of the schedule looks very nice on paper as they host LSU and Ole Miss, while not facing any of the likely top four from the SEC East and the Crimson Tide should have a chance to compete for the SEC Championship and get back to the National Championship Game.
SEC East: Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 8-0): Georgia need to have their game faces on from week one if they are to run the table and get back to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game; they face Clemson Tigers on the road to open the season and also have to host South Carolina and LSU in the first month of the season and that could decide their fate for the whole year.
If they can win those four games, the Bulldogs will still have tough tests at Tennessee and Vanderbilt and face the Gators in Florida so there is every chance that Georgia will lose a game somewhere. However, I expect they can beat South Carolina and that could give them the tie-breaker over their nearest rivals, in my opinion, and thus take the SEC East title.
SEC Championship: Alabama Crimson Tide
Pac-12 North: Stanford Cardinal (12-0, 9-0)- Most people would still be picking the Oregon Ducks to win the Division despite the loss of Chip Kelly as Head Coach who moved to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Ducks may have the 'easier' of the schedules compared with Stanford, but the Cardinal host Oregon and have beaten them twice in the last four years so they have every chance to taking the Division with that tie-breaker in their pocket.
A key for the Cardinal is negotiating the tough Pac-12 South schedule they have been handed with visits from Arizona State and UCLA, while they also have to go to USC. Even if Stanford lose one of those games, which is possible, beating Oregon will still give them the inside track to the Division.
Pac-12 South: Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3, 7-2)- The Pac-12 South isn't as strong as the North, but I believe Arizona State have the best chance of taking the Division because of the way the schedule shapes up for them.
A bad run of four losses in a row cost the Sun Devils a chance to compete for the Division last year, but they have a lot of positives this time including hosting USC and Oregon State, while their nearest rivals have the misfortune of facing the tougher opponents from the Pac-12 North.
Pac-12 Championship: Stanford Cardinal
Big Ten Leaders: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 8-0)- Urban Meyer surpassed expectations last season by leading the Ohio State Buckeyes to an unbeaten season and they are now considered the team most likely to break the SEC dominance of the National Title.
The Buckeyes have a manageable schedule as they host most of the tougher teams they play (Wisconsin and Penn State), but visits to Northwestern and particularly the Michigan Wolverines to end the season are the ones most likely to scupper a trip to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on January 6th 2014.
Big Ten Legends: Michigan Wolverines (10-2, 6-2)- I have been impressed with the way Brady Hoke has turned things around at Michigan as he enters his third season as Head Coach. Michigan fans will believe they are capable of doing something very special this season and I do think the pieces are in place for the Wolverines to get to one of the big Bowl games.
However, they will have to negotiate some tough road games at Penn State, Northwestern and Michigan State and also have to host Notre Dame and Nebraska and that is all before they end the season with a home game against Ohio State. It is hard to see the Wolverines going better than 2-1 in those three road games but they should be able to win the Division by knocking off Nebraska and competing in the Big Ten Championship.
Big Ten Championship: Ohio State Buckeyes
Big 12: Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1, 8-1)- This might be the most competitive Conference in the nation, but there are now outstanding teams that you can say with any real confidence will have enough to get into the National Championship mix.
The powers like the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns have talent in their squads, but both also have doubts about experience plus toughness. Both teams also have some very tough scheduling and the schedule is one of the main reasons I have picked the Cowboys to win the Conference.
Oklahoma State are fortunate that they host most of their main rivals. although the trip to the Longhorns may be the reason they are not involved in the National Championship talk. This is a team that is capable of putting up a lot of points and they do look the team to beat this time around after going 5-4 in Conference play last season.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson Tigers (10-2, 8-0)- The Clemson Tigers have returned enough talent from last season to believe they can have a really special season this time around, although much of that may come down to how they do against two SEC East teams against whom they open and close their regular season.
Georgia Bulldogs and South Carolina Gamecocks are big challenges for Clemson and both may be a little too strong, although the Tigers can point to their Bowl win over LSU last year for confidence. If they can win both of those games, Clemson may just get involved in the National Championship discussion.
The rest of the schedule is to Clemson's favour as they don't take on any of the top teams from the ACC Coastal and they host their main rivals in this Division, the Florida State Seminoles and I expect them to take advantage thanks to their powerful offense.
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech Hokies (10-2, 7-1)- A lot of people may be tipping the Miami Hurricanes to be the team to beat in this Division, but I believe the Virginia Tech Hokies can get back to their rightful place under Frank Beamer and register a double-digit win season.
Logan Thomas was a disappointment last season, but he looks a prototype NFL Quarter Back and I expect more from him this season, while the Defense has 9 starters back and could be dominant. The Hokies are likely to start the season with a loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, but the key will be winning one of two tough road games against Miami or the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
If they can split those games 1-1 at least, the rest of the schedule looks like one Virginia Tech can negotiate and I do think Miami, their likely closest rivals, have a couple of really tough road games themselves which they may not win.
ACC Championship: Clemson Tigers
American Champion: Louisville Cardinals (11-1, 7-1)- The Louisville Cardinals are not flying under the radar this season after destroying the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl at the end of last season and fans will be expectant for an 11 win season again at the least.
I read that Louisville were considered the Number 1 team that could go unbeaten on CBSSports.com and I can't argue too much with that as they have every chance of running the table with a very comfortable looking schedule on slate.
However, the games at Kentucky and particularly the final game at Cincinnati look like the biggest dangers to that happening for Louisville. The Bearcats may still be in contention to win the Conference when that final game comes around, but they have three significant road tests at South Florida, Rutgers and Houston during the season that may end up giving them two losses and only the opportunity to play spoiler in the final week, something they could end up doing.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise State Broncos (10-2, 7-1)- The Boise State Broncos have just missed out on competing in the National Championship Game over the last few seasons, mainly because they have had one lapse of concentration during the course of the season.
It is unlikely they will run the table this time around too with some tough road games at Fresno State, BYU and Utah State on the schedule, while a trip to San Diego State is another tough game to get through. However, I expect Boise State to win two of three on the road against Conference foes from those games selected and that should give them the edge over Utah State in the Mountain Division.
The added benefit of getting two weeks to prepare for the game at Utah State should give Boise State the tie-breaker in the Division and the opportunity to play for the Conference title.
Mountain West West: San Jose State Spartans (10-2, 8-0)- This may be their first season in the Mountain West Conference, but I think San Jose State Spartans could find themselves competing for a title with a bit of luck falling their way.
The Spartans host their two closest rivals in the Division, while all four road games in Conference play look very winnable which should give the San Jose State the edge over Fresno State San Diego State.
My pick here could all rest on how San Jose State begin their Conference play when they host Utah State, who whipped them here last season... Win that game and confidence and home advantage could see the Spartans to a Conference title game.
Mountain West Championship: Boise State Broncos
MAC East: Bowling Green Falcons (9-3, 7-1)- This Division was won by the Kent State Golden Flashes a season ago, but I believe Bowling Green Falcons could win their first title since 2003 when they were part of the West.
I do think the one Conference loss will come against Kent State, who Bowling Green face on the road, but the Champions of last year have to visit Ohio and Ball State and also host Northern Illinois and may end one game out of winning the Division again.
Bowling Green host Ohio and that could prove to be the tie-breaker in the Division as the Falcons return 17 starters from a season ago.
MAC West: Northern Illinois Huskies (9-3, 7-1)- Northern Illinois will have to go some to get close to the success of last season with only 3 starters returning on the defensive side of the ball, but I do think they are in line to win their third consecutive MAC West title.
The Conference schedule certainly should suit the Huskies and the key is that they get to host Ball State in what could be another tie-breaker in the Division.
You can't rule out Ball State completely as they can certainly win the other seven Conference games they play and the game between the top two teams in the West on November 13 will be a winner takes all contest as far as I am concerned.
MAC Championship: Northern Illinois Huskies
Sun Belt Champion: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns- The reigning Champions Arkansas State have lost their Quarter Back Ryan Aplin and could take a step back in Conference play this season. The team I believe will take advantage is the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns.
The key for the Ragin' Cajuns is their Defense to give them a little bit of help- the team can score plenty of points, but they allowed 30 points per game last season which was fifth in the Sun Belt Conference.
There are some tough games on slate for Louisiana, but the key is that they have their biggest rivals at home, although the game at Arkansas State may provide a sole loss in the Conference. However, the fact that Louisiana host the ULM Warhawks may be the game that gives them the tie-breaker in the Conference and help them pick up the title... As long as the Defense plays some sort of a part.
Conference-USA East: Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3, 7-1)- I have picked Marshall Thundering Herd to win this Division over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, although I wouldn't be surprised if the latter do overturn that prediction.
Middle Tennessee host Marshall at the end of November and could decide which of these teams win the Division, especially as both teams will host the other threat to win this Division in East Carolina.
If Marshall win that game, I still don't think they will run the table with another tough road game at Tulsa Golden Hurricane who are one of the top teams in the West Division. Marshall at Middle Tennessee may be the Division decider as East Carolina have the toughest schedule of the top teams in the East.
Conference-USA West: Rice Owls (10-2, 7-1)- I think there isn't a lot that separates Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Rice Owls in the Conference and I can see all three beating one another in matches to all possibly end with a 7-1 Conference record.
However, I believe the Rice Owls may have the biggest upside with 18 starters returning from last season when they won their final five games and even the fact that five of their eight Conference games are on the road, the only really difficult one is the game at Tulsa and they do host the Bulldogs.
Rice will need more out of their Defense if they are to win the Division, but the fact they have 10 returning starters and the improvement in the final five games last season suggest the Owls are in for a big season.
Conference-USA Championship: Rice Owls
There are also a few Independent schools that could have a real impact this season. I particularly like the BYU Cougars (9-3) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)- the latter won a number of close games on their way to competing for the National Championship last season, but I feel they may come up short when they go to Michigan and Stanford, while the game against Arizona State in Arlington is another tough game for the Fighting Irish to overcome.
Thursday 29 August
Just got the one pick for the opening day of the College Football season, although will add Friday and Saturday games once I have shortlisted the ones I like.
USC Trojans @ Hawaii Warriors Pick: The Matt Barkley era ended in disappointing fashion for USC last season, but there is still enough talent for the Trojans to come to Hawaii and register a big win.
The Quarter Back position is still not decided in place of Barkley, but Hawaii are likely to have another disappointing season after their struggles of a year ago and there is still too much in the Southern California squad for them to cope with in my opinion.
I have to write this short blurb with little time, but this USC covering the spread is my first pick of the new season and I'll have more in the coming day.
Friday 30 August
I've already received the first bad break of the new season as USC, leading 30-5 with 20 seconds left, allow Hawaii to hit a 60 yard TD pass after giving up nothing more than a field goal and a safety in the first 59 minute and 20 seconds. It was a bit unlucky, but those backers of under the total points really had a bad break with 15 points scored in the last minute of the game which saw the game go from under to over the 38 point total.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ SMU Mustangs Pick: There have been some changes made at Texas Tech in the Head Coach department which has the fans hopeful of a strong season, but they have to make a positive start in a tough road game at the SMU Mustangs.
It will be interesting to see if Garrett Gilbert is more comfortable in the SMU Offense this season after having a few struggles last year, although the Mustangs have lost a lot of players on both sides of the ball. The Red Raiders need to be careful with the ball as last season the Mustangs forced a lot of turnovers, but Texas Tech look like they could grab the win here.
SMU have been strong as the home underdog under June Jones and they have won their last 5 home openers so this is not an easy game for Texas Tech. However, I think the Red Raiders are going to be able to put together a lot of scoring drives this season and score a lot of points and they should be able to open with a win and a cover.
Saturday 31 August
Texas Tech were very impressive in their win yesterday and there are plenty of positive signs for them, although a tough Big 12 Conference will make it tough for them to get to a Bowl game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys v Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: If Mississippi State can keep tabs on Oklahoma State early in this game, this could be very close and the surprise is on, but the Bulldogs could be troubled by this game being played inside a dome where the Cowboys Offensive power can be aided.
The Bulldogs also suffered collapses in their defeats last season, losing all 5 games by an average of 21.4 points per game and the closest defeat was by 14 points.
Oklahoma State have big expectations this season and they can make a statement by knocking off a team from the SEC. If the Defense can use their aggression to knock Tyler Russell around, I like the Cowboys to win this one by at least 12 points.
Alabama Crimson Tide v Virginia Tech Hokies Pick: It has to be noted that the National Champion usually kicks off the new season in impressive style- since 1999, they have won every opening game by an average of over 30 points and Alabama added to that a season ago with a crushing win against the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan are a better team than Virginia Tech are this season and I also think Alabama are just as strong as last season.
Don't believe the hype about unfocused business from the Crimson Tide who won't be allowed to rest on their laurels by Nick Saban and who have TWO weeks to prepare for their next game which is the important one at Texas A&M which has all sorts of National Championship ramifications.
Alabama have covered the spread in their last 6 games on a neutral field and they look a little too strong on both sides of the ball and I like them to cover.
UAB Blazers @ Troy Trojans Pick: There should be plenty of points scored in this one as both schools have more faith in what they can do with their Offense than what they can with the Defense.
Home field advantage should prove to be the difference in the game, as it has in the majority of their recent series, although it may also come down which of the teams has the ball last.
Troy just seem to have the edge on the Offensive side of the ball to think they will move the chains more consistently in this game and that may be enough to cover the spread.
Washington State Cougars @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Confidence won't be high in both programs for this season, but there is a belief that both will be going in the right direction come the end of the season.
Washington State have a brutal schedule and may struggle to win the 3 games they did a year ago, but the fans are just hoping to see some better performances from the team now that Mike Leach has had a season under his belt here.
The Auburn fans will also be excited about having Gus Malzahn back as Head Coach and will be believing he can spark and Offense that struggled all season.
Teams at the bottom of the SEC will still be a match for a lot of schools throughout the nation and I don't think this will be disproved and I expect Auburn to win the game. However, the Tigers are giving up a lot of points and Washington State may just earn the cover.
Boise State Broncos @ Washington Huskies Pick: A new season's opening weekend can be tough to read simply because of the high turnover of personnel at some schools, but that isn't the case for Washington.
There are a lot of factors that go in their favour including the revenge angle and the game being played in their new stadium which will make the fanbase a little louder.
However, I just feel the Boise State Broncos are a touch under-rated in this one considering how much winning the school has done under the guidance of Chris Peterson.
If the Defense can play surprisingly better than some may expect, the Offense can score enough points to keep this close at least and I'll take the points in this one.
MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 23.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders - 4 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 11 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 21 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Troy Trojans - 4 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars + 14 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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