Tennis Picks Canadian Masters 2013 (August 6th)

The biggest issue with the first of the back to back Masters tournaments in Canada is that a lot of players are coming in without playing a lot of tennis since Wimbledon. That means there are some surprising performances from players as they find their feet, while others are just trying to improve their fitness ahead of the US Open which will begin later this month.

It does mean you have to be a little more careful when making picks as you have to take a few more things into account and not just simply the match up on the court. Hopefully I will be able to avoid those surprising results on Tuesday as the First Round matches are concluded and the Second Round gets underway.


Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Radek Stepanek: It is Radek Stepanek that leads the head to head between these players including a decisive fifth rubber win in the Davis Cup Final last season and while I believe Nicolas Almagro is the more talented player, I do have reasons in my mind why Stepanek has the lead in the head to head.

Let's face it- Stepanek is one of the more awkward players to play on the Tour and I don't just mean for the serve-volleying skills or the ability to get to the net. The Czech player has always been happy to try and get into the mind of his opponent on the court and I can see that really affecting someone like Almagro who can start making a lot of unforced errors when he mentally is not tuned in to the contest.

On pure talent, you would think that Almagro would hold the edge- he has the bigger serve, while his backhand should be capable of neutralising Stepanek's backhand, which is his more reliable shot. Of course, Stepanek can pressure opponents by getting to the net and forcing them to pass him, especially considering the Czech man is one of the better doubles players in the world and is comfortable playing a number of volleys.

If Almagro doesn't allow Stepanek to get into his mind, he should be able to find a way to come through this match, although I think it will be a tight contest. I expect the bigger serve to pay dividends in the end and Almagro to come through 63, 57, 64.


Fabio Fognini v Marcos Baghdatis: It has been a stunning summer for Fabio Fognini so far as he won his first two titles on the ATP Tour and only missed out on a third as tiredness finally caught up with him in the Final at Umag. The Italian then enjoyed a well deserved week off before this tournament and I think he has the confidence that can certainly make life difficult for Marcos Baghdatis.

The court in Montreal isn't playing particularly fast from what tennis I saw on Monday and that could aid Fognini's game as it should, in theory, give him more time to get the ball back in play. He was also returning serve with real vigour during the summer clay court season in Europe and he will see a lot of second serves in this one and could certainly put Baghdatis under some pressure.

Baghdatis will at least feel better having stopped his losing run with a couple of wins in Washington last week and he played pretty well in his first two matches. He has a lot of flash about him and can certainly put together periods of hitting plenty of winners, but he may have to have better consistency if he is to see off Fognini.

The Italian's serve can certainly be a weakness, but I will have a unit on Fognini to cause a surprise in the First Round.


Tommy Haas - 4.5 games v David Goffin: It can be easy to forget that Tommy Haas is a 35 year old with the way he has turned back the clock in 2013 and there is a real chance he could earn enough points to be invited to the End of Year Championships in London in November.

Haas has been very consistent and I think he is going to be a little too good for David Goffin in this one, even if the young Belgian player has a Challenger title on the hard courts last month. The problem for Goffin is that he doesn't really have the power to mix with the top players and he is being out-hit by opponents who have a real idea as to how he will come out and approach a match.

In Washington, Goffin was swept aside by Bernard Tomic, although he did snap an eight match losing run on the main ATP Tour with a win over Yen-Hsun Lu at that event. His problem is how to deal with a player like Haas that is pretty effective off both wings and also has a serve that can offer up cheap points.

My only concern with Haas is that he can lose concentration and give up breaks of serve with silly unforced errors at time, but his overall performance this season suggests he will be a fairly comfortable winner in this First Round match. The German has a Quarter Final appearance in Toronto to defend from last season, and he can at least make a start towards that with a 64, 62 win.


Dominika Cibulkova v Angelique Kerber: I have a lot of admiration for both of these players, but I feel that Dominika Cibulkova is the more mentally stable of the two and that will help her reach the Third Round in Toronto.

Cibulkova is back in the top 20 of the World Rankings after winning the big event in Stanford and even her early exit in Carlsbad can be forgiven after the exploits of the week before and the fact she lost to a decent player in Ana Ivanovic. The hard courts have generally been the surface on which Cibulkova has had the most success as she is able to hit through opponents a little easier and she has a lot more power than someone would initially think.

She is also up against an opponent in Angelique Kerber that can be so up and down- I admire where the German has taken her game in the last couple of seasons, but every time I think she is ready to make a real move at a Grand Slam, she fails to do that. There have been times when Kerber has lost matches from strong winning positions and I think her inconsistency will likely be her downfall against a player like Cibulkova that plays a consistent 7/10 most times she is on the court.


Francesca Schiavone v Chanelle Scheepers: This has been set as a pick 'em contest because Francesca Schiavone is not at the same level as when she won the French Open and the hard courts are certainly not her favoured surface. However, she is playing Chanelle Scheepers, a player that has had a tough 2013 and I am not sure the South African should be favoured to beat Schiavone just yet.

There is no doubt that we will see a few breaks of serve in this match, but Schiavone is mentally as tough as almost any player on the WTA Tour and I think that will prove to be the difference in the match.

Both players have losing records on the Tour on the hard courts this season, but the level of opponent they have lost to is clearly different with some of the biggest names knocking off Schiavone and I still believe she is a competing at a level higher than Scheepers. Of course, the South African will be used to the conditions in Toronto with two qualifying match wins under her belt, but I like Schiavone to come through this one in three sets and the Italian to tough out her opponent.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini @ 2.38 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Tommy Haas - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.30 Units (6 Units Staked, + 21.67% Yield)