I had picked Juan Monaco in the outright market and decided to pick Marcel Granollers with a 2.5 game head start for the Final as I felt the Spaniard could at least keep things close. What happened from there summed up the bad fortune of the week as Monaco won the first set with a bagel before Granollers came back to win 76, 64 and ensuring this was one of the rare moments where the favourite covers the spread but loses the match meaning both picks were losers... Incredible(!)
Once again, so often I had players in strong positions this week, but they couldn't complete the job, while some picks put themselves behind the black ball before coming back to win a closer match than they should have.
You always need a little bit of luck to get ahead when making regular picks, but when it has deserted you in the fashion it did for me over the last seven days, it can only lead to frustration. It should have been a much stronger week than it has turned out to be and a huge loss, the worst of the season, is vastly disappointing considering how the matches panned out.
This week the big tournaments on the ATP and WTA Tour have moved on to Toronto and Montreal where the Masters/Premier Events take place ahead of the US Open. Both tournaments will be missing one of the big names as both Roger Federer and Maria Sharapova have pulled out ahead of the event.
The absence of Roger Federer is a strange call from the 17 time Grand Slam winner and it makes me question the motivation for playing in Hamburg and Gstaad in July. He has been complaining of a back issue since the loss to Daniel Brands in Switzerland, although the suggestion is that Federer will return for the defence of his title in Cincinnati.
Either way, both Federer and Sharapova will want to get some tennis in ahead of the US Open which begins on August 26 although it would be a real surprise if the former is able to put together seven strong matches to win the final Grand Slam of the season.
I am not making a pick from the WTA tournament in Toronto this week as the draw looks very much in favour of the favourite Serena Williams, but the layers are taking no chances by offering the American at odds on. This is her first tournament back on the hard courts so there is a chance, albeit an extremely small one, that she is surprised early.
Even picking someone from the other half looks tricky as I feel Victoria Azarenka is the player to beat beside Williams this week. However, she has played a long week in Carlsbad and has to travel from Southern California to Canada and has been placed in a quarter where the likes of Sam Stosur, Petra Kvitova and Jelena Jankovic all reside.
ATP Montreal
The big names are back in action on the ATP Tour this week as we begin preparation for the US Open and the good news is that Rafael Nadal will also be involved in Montreal after missing seven months of the Tour last season following a surprising defeat at Wimbledon in June. I am ignoring the manner of his defeat at Wimbledon this season as he had performed well on his return and he also has one hard court title to his name this season when winning at Indian Wells.
I am not convinced that Nadal will be able to grab his second hard court title of the season here, even as a winner on this court in 2005, as there are a couple of really dangerous players in his section that can spring a surprise if the Spaniard is not confident in what he can bring to the table. The likes of Jerzy Janowicz and Tommy Haas have the big games to disrupt Nadal and keep the match off his racquet if they get hot, although Nadal is capable of reaching the Semi Final here as long as he is feeling healthy.
That is where I would favour the World Number 1 and top seeded Novak Djokovic to be waiting for him and I expect the Serb to earn a measure of revenge for his French Open Semi Final defeat earlier this season.
Djokovic has won this tournament in back to back years, including the last time it was played in Montreal, and he has been given a draw that he probably couldn't have hand-picked any better. He does have a potentially awkward first match against the winner of Bernard Tomic and Florian Mayer, but the Serb will be able to play himself into the tournament and I expect he would be too strong for Nadal in a potential Semi Final.
The World Number 1 has won their last five meetings on surfaces that aren't clay courts, including three on the hard courts, and I would expect Djokovic to win that battle if it comes to fruition.
We will also see the return of current US Open and Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray to a Masters tournament he has won in the two years preceding Djokovic's run, but I don't think the British player will be too happy with the draw he has received.
Just to get to the Semi Final, there is every chance that Murray will have to beat Grigor Dimitrov, Ernests Gulbis and Washington Champion Juan Martin Del Potro and there is no telling how Murray is feeling after his exploits at Wimbledon. While he will know how to deal with the exposure that comes after winning a Grand Slam, Wimbledon held a different pressure after the long period without a British Champion and it wouldn't surprise me if he is a little under-cooked here this week and perhaps surprised early.
Del Potro does look a little short in the market as far as I am concerned, especially with a long week under his belt in a winning effort in Washington and he has yet to surpass the Second Round since reaching the Final in 2009. In fact, outside of that one appearance in the Final, Del Potro has a 1-3 record in three other visits to Canada to play this Masters.
With the big two both having a few question marks surrounding their ability to perform this week, we could see a surprise Finalist come out of the bottom half of the draw... Well a surprise Finalist to the layers.
David Ferrer won his first Masters tournament in Paris at the end of last season and he has reached his first Grand Slam Final this season, although there have been a few signs that he could be slowing down a touch. However, he comes into the week at his highest Ranking of Number 3 and he also is very comfortable on the North American hard courts as proved by a Semi Final appearance at the US Open as well as a Runner Up finish in Miami in March.
He is in a nice little section of the draw and I expect him to reach the Quarter Final where his first test will likely be either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. The latter has reached back to back Finals in Atlanta and Washington, but Ferrer has a strong head to head against both of those players, but I do have a concern that Ferrer has never won back to back matches at the Canadian Masters.
If he can do that this week he could be tough to stop and he looks in a section where he could make a mockery of the prices being offered by the layers.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.63 Bet Fred (3 Units)
David Ferrer @ 26.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)
Tennis Outright Picks (July 29-August 4): 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 29-August 4): 13-18, - 10.64 Units (60 Units Staked, - 17.73% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.98 Units (980.5 Units Staked, + 2.24% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
The big names are back in action on the ATP Tour this week as we begin preparation for the US Open and the good news is that Rafael Nadal will also be involved in Montreal after missing seven months of the Tour last season following a surprising defeat at Wimbledon in June. I am ignoring the manner of his defeat at Wimbledon this season as he had performed well on his return and he also has one hard court title to his name this season when winning at Indian Wells.
I am not convinced that Nadal will be able to grab his second hard court title of the season here, even as a winner on this court in 2005, as there are a couple of really dangerous players in his section that can spring a surprise if the Spaniard is not confident in what he can bring to the table. The likes of Jerzy Janowicz and Tommy Haas have the big games to disrupt Nadal and keep the match off his racquet if they get hot, although Nadal is capable of reaching the Semi Final here as long as he is feeling healthy.
That is where I would favour the World Number 1 and top seeded Novak Djokovic to be waiting for him and I expect the Serb to earn a measure of revenge for his French Open Semi Final defeat earlier this season.
Djokovic has won this tournament in back to back years, including the last time it was played in Montreal, and he has been given a draw that he probably couldn't have hand-picked any better. He does have a potentially awkward first match against the winner of Bernard Tomic and Florian Mayer, but the Serb will be able to play himself into the tournament and I expect he would be too strong for Nadal in a potential Semi Final.
The World Number 1 has won their last five meetings on surfaces that aren't clay courts, including three on the hard courts, and I would expect Djokovic to win that battle if it comes to fruition.
We will also see the return of current US Open and Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray to a Masters tournament he has won in the two years preceding Djokovic's run, but I don't think the British player will be too happy with the draw he has received.
Just to get to the Semi Final, there is every chance that Murray will have to beat Grigor Dimitrov, Ernests Gulbis and Washington Champion Juan Martin Del Potro and there is no telling how Murray is feeling after his exploits at Wimbledon. While he will know how to deal with the exposure that comes after winning a Grand Slam, Wimbledon held a different pressure after the long period without a British Champion and it wouldn't surprise me if he is a little under-cooked here this week and perhaps surprised early.
Del Potro does look a little short in the market as far as I am concerned, especially with a long week under his belt in a winning effort in Washington and he has yet to surpass the Second Round since reaching the Final in 2009. In fact, outside of that one appearance in the Final, Del Potro has a 1-3 record in three other visits to Canada to play this Masters.
With the big two both having a few question marks surrounding their ability to perform this week, we could see a surprise Finalist come out of the bottom half of the draw... Well a surprise Finalist to the layers.
David Ferrer won his first Masters tournament in Paris at the end of last season and he has reached his first Grand Slam Final this season, although there have been a few signs that he could be slowing down a touch. However, he comes into the week at his highest Ranking of Number 3 and he also is very comfortable on the North American hard courts as proved by a Semi Final appearance at the US Open as well as a Runner Up finish in Miami in March.
He is in a nice little section of the draw and I expect him to reach the Quarter Final where his first test will likely be either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. The latter has reached back to back Finals in Atlanta and Washington, but Ferrer has a strong head to head against both of those players, but I do have a concern that Ferrer has never won back to back matches at the Canadian Masters.
If he can do that this week he could be tough to stop and he looks in a section where he could make a mockery of the prices being offered by the layers.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.63 Bet Fred (3 Units)
David Ferrer @ 26.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)
Tennis Outright Picks (July 29-August 4): 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 29-August 4): 13-18, - 10.64 Units (60 Units Staked, - 17.73% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.98 Units (980.5 Units Staked, + 2.24% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
No comments:
Post a Comment