Tennis Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 16th)

It was another decent, yet not spectacular day, on Thursday and we have now reached the Quarter Finals in Cincinnati with most of the big names still in the tournament.

One glaring absence from the men's tournament is David Ferrer and there has to be a concern with the World Number 4 ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season. He had an extremely disappointing defeat to Alex Bogomolov in Montreal last week, but has also struggled this week against Ryan Harrison and was then beaten by Dmitry Tursunov.

Something doesn't feel right about Ferrer, who also carried a knock during Wimbledon, and his quarter of the draw at Flushing Meadows could be wide open for someone to take advantage. Too many errors and possibly a tiny bit slower with his movement around the court and poor form is not the way you want to go into any Grand Slam tournament.


Another player struggling is Roger Federer who is playing with his old racquet in a bid to rediscover some form. It was vitally important for Federer to come back against Tommy Haas in the manner he did, but he has to improve his groundstrokes especially behind a big first serve if he really has a chance of adding to his Grand Slam titles.

However, it will be a big ask for him to do it with Rafael Nadal in tremendous form and both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray likely to also be in the way to the title in New York. Tonight we will see how far Federer is from the top guys as he takes on Nadal in the evening session.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Dmitry Tursunov: Dmitry Tursunov is a great character to have on the Tour, but he has had a few lean seasons so his 2013 year has been a real surprise. He has already played a lot of tennis this week having had to qualify for the tournament, but Tursunov has been in very good nick all year with a couple of Semi Finals and a Quarter Final under his belt.

He is likely to make another leap in the Rankings at the end of this week with another Quarter Final to his name, but I think he will find himself a little outmatched by Juan Martin Del Potro.

If Del Potro had a few more decent Masters results to his name and had performed better at the Australian Open, he would certainly be higher up the Rankings. Even yesterday we saw the big man suddenly throw in a shocking set against Feliciano Lopez, although I want to credit the latter for changing tactics and really upping the pressure on Del Potro.

However, Tursunov is unlikely to try to change things up and will be content rallying from the back of the court and that is the reason I think he will find himself outmatched. The Russian just can't compete with the big hitters who have the consistency that Del Potro has and that can be seen in Tursunov's comfortable losses to Tomas Berdych this year.

Tursunov's serve will keep him in the match, but I expect Del Potro will find a way to come through with a break more in each set and win this one 64, 64.


Novak Djokovic-John Isner Tie Break Played- Yes: These two players have met four times previously and on every occasion, they have played at least one tie-break and I think there is every chance they will play another.

Despite how effective a returner Novak Djokovic is, John Isner has an absolute bomb of a first serve and the second kicks up so high that it offers a lot of short balls up even if it does make it back into the court. There are times when Isner's serve is literally unreturnable and he can rattle off games at a fast clip.

On the other hand, I think Novak Djokovic's first port of call is to make sure he looks after his own serve and try and pressure John Isner that way into making a mistake on his own serve. The World Number 1 may also need to wait for the scoreboard pressure to build up before he is successful in creating chances on the serve and I would be surprised if one of the first two sets doesn't end with the breaker.

The last three matches have seen the first set needing a breaker to separate these two players, while their first meeting on the clay saw Djokovic break serve once both players had reached five games. I just feel the chances of a tie-breaker should be shorter than they are so will back there being one in this match.


Andy Murray win 2-1 v Tomas Berdych: I have picked Andy Murray to win this tournament this week, although he will need to be focused to see off Tomas Berdych who has quietly made his way through the draw in Cincinnati.

I was a little surprised to see that Berdych still has a winning record against Murray, leading 5-4 thanks to beating the World Number 2 on the clay courts in their only meeting in 2013. However, Berdych is yet to win a title in 2013 and while he has been consistent for the most part, he does tend to get a little tight at crucial times in matches.

Berdych's game is certainly big enough to cause problems, not just with the obvious big serve, but the ability to attack Murray's second serve which is still a very weak shot in the Brit's arsenal. It is that ability to earn break points and take advantage of the situation that has led to Berdych winning a set against in Murray in all but one of their nine previous meetings.

However, Murray has found a way to see off Berdych in the last three hard court matches they have played (one indoors), although he has lost the first set in the last two of those matches. With the way Berdych plays, he can string together some really impressive games and I think he will take another set off Murray, but I just believe the higher Ranked player finds a way to grind down the Czech players game and win this one in three sets.


Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: There has been a clear shift in the dynamic between these two old rivals that Roger Federer is no longer a favourite to beat Rafael Nadal on a hard court, but recent form of the two players suggest it won't be much different from their two previous matches this season.

Rafael Nadal has won all four sets they have competed against one another in 2013 and has lost 10 games in those four sets, while the Spaniard is on a roll during this year and Federer has been in something of a slump.

The bottom line is Federer cannot play the same way he did against Tommy Haas yesterday as Nadal is unlikely to suddenly choke a winning lead having won 22 of their previous 32 meetings. Nadal has also moved to 7-1 in their last 8 meetings on a hard court and almost everything is pointing to him beating his long time rival yet again.

Maybe Federer turns back the clock in this one or maybe Nadal suddenly feels his knees aren't holding up on the hard courts. Either way, I cannot recommend anything but taking the Spaniard to cover this spread on current form and recording another fairly comfortable win over Federer.


Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Simona Halep: I haven't been involved in any Serena Williams matches since Wimbledon simply because the layers don't take any chances with her- Williams has blown away so many opponents that her spreads are left on the high side, yet I would never feel comfortable taking her opponent either as Williams is capable of blowing away any woman that plays on the Tour.

However, this spread looks a touch lower than I thought it was, albeit by the one game, and I do think Williams power is going to be a little too hot to handle for Simona Halep. It was a good win for the latter over Sam Stosur yesterday, but Williams is a better server and a far more aggressive and effective returner of serve and that should make the difference in the match.

There is perhaps a slight concern that Williams is looking a little jaded after a long week in Canada last week, but she has played well in the last four sets she has competed and I think she will make Halep run side to side yet have the power to hit through her too.

On a clay court, this would perhaps be a closer contest, but on a hard court I would back Serena to win this one 63, 62.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic-John Isner Tie Break Played- Yes @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 2-1 @ 4.33 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-14, + 0.20 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)