Midweek Football Picks 2013/14 (August 20-22)

With the Premier League and La Liga back in action last weekend, the attention will turn to the final round of Champions League qualifiers which will have their first legs played this week.

Later on this week I will put up a short review of the weekend football that is in the books and that will likely go up with the upcoming picks from the next weekend games.

On this post, I will put up the picks from the games to be played across Europe on Tuesday through to Thursday.


Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic Pick: Only someone telling porkies would say they know all about Shakhter Karagandy, unless of course you come from Kazakhstan, but that isn't the case for me. I have been impressed with their win over BATE Borisov in the first of the qualifying rounds, especially as we saw how decent BATE are in their wins over Bayern Munich and Lille last year in the Group Stage.

While Shakhter Karagandy won the match against BATE, it was said that they had to ride their luck as the latter had a lot of chances to score the goal that would have turned that tie around particularly when they visited Kazakhstan.

It is a trip into the unknown for Celtic who will think anything other than competing in the Group Stage in the coming months is a failure- with Rangers demoted from the Scottish top flight, Celtic's biggest challenges come from the Champions League and being knocked out before the Group Stage will certainly remove some of the excitement the fans would be feeling in the early part of the new season.

Celtic have to play their third away qualifier on an artificial surface and had a lot of complaints in the last round at Elfsborg when playing on a similar pitch as the one they will see on Tuesday. The loss of Gary Hooper has taken away some of the goal threat Celtic have and they are yet to bring in his replacement.

Neil Lennon may also just want his side to get into a position to win this game at Celtic Park next week and to get out of Kazakhstan with an injury-free squad and a chance to win the tie at home. It's tough to know what to really expect from Shakhter Karagandy, but Celtic look a little short against a side from an improving nation and I can see the home tie avoiding defeat.


Lyon v Real Sociedad Pick: Out of the two teams, Lyon have the name that a lot of fans would recognise, especially at the Champions League level, but they missed out last year and have to negotiate this tough tie to make it back to the Group Stage this time around.

It is a tough tie to read as both teams will have the belief that they can come through over two legs- Lyon have the more experience at European level and won 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League last season; Real Sociedad haven't played in Europe since 2004 when they reached the last 16 of the Champions League, but they are an improved team and any team that finishes 4th in La Liga has to be respected.

This has all the makings of a tie that could go into extra time and possibly even need penalties next week in Spain. Home advantage should be key in both legs and Lyon have been strong here over the years, even if they are not of the same quality of teams that reached Quarter Finals in this competition and beat some of the biggest names in European football.

Real Sociedad can't be underestimated having won games at the teams that finished 3rd, 5th and 6th in Spain last season, but I just give the edge to the French side to have a lead going to Spain next week.


PSV Eindhoven v AC Milan Pick: A tie between two former winners of the European Cup is certainly the one that has interested most fans around Europe and it is incredibly tough to separate them in this first leg, although AC Milan are the favourites to move through to the Group Stage.

PSV Eindhoven haven't played in the Champions League in a few seasons but will remember how close they came to upsetting AC Milan in the 2005 Semi Final, although they are now a young team. They should be confident having won all 5 games they have played so far this season, but the lack of experience may pose problems, while PSV were knocked out early in the Europa League last season, albeit after beating Napoli of Italy twice in the Group Stage.

On the other hand, Milan certainly have more experience after reaching the last 16 of this competition last season, but they have yet to play a competitive game this season and that may pose problems. After struggling away from home in the Champions League for a few seasons, Milan won 2 of their 4 away games last season and it was actually their away form that helped them out of the Group Stage.

I am sure Milan would be happy to leave Eindhoven with a draw as that would set them up to complete the tie at the San Siro next week, but there is some talent in the former 7 time European Cup winners squad and they may just have a little bit more in hand at the end of this one.

Milan will have to ride out what will be an early storm as PSV's youthful exuberance will push for an early goal to take advantage of any rustiness that may be in the away squad. If Milan can ride that period out, they may just have enough up front to win this one and have a big advantage to take back to Italy next week.


Dinamo Zagreb v Austria Vienna Pick: Dinamo Zagreb have fought through the qualifiers to reach the Group Stage of the Champions League in each of the last two seasons and are once again just one tie from making it back to that lucrative round.

While the side have struggled when they have got into the Groups, losing 11 of 12 and earning just 1 point from a possible 36, Dinamo Zagreb have proved very capable in the qualifying rounds. Dinamo have won 9 straight qualifiers in the Champions League and they have won 8 in a row at this stage at home.

That experience should give them a chance to take a lead to Austria next week as they take on perhaps the most famous name from that country, Austria Vienna. The latter have never reached the Group Stage of the Champions League and they struggled through the last round with a 1-0 aggregate win against FH from the Faroes Islands.

Austria Vienna's Croatian manager may give them some insider knowledge, but Dinamo's experience and know how to win these qualifiers should give them the edge in this home tie.


Fenerbache v Arsenal Pick: Both Fenerbache and Arsenal are coming into this important tie off the back of disappointing defeats in their respective domestic Leagues so it will be interesting how they have recovered mentally from those losses.

Both teams had leads, but both saw those overturned by opponents they would have been expected to beat. Fenerbache also have a ban from European football hanging over their heads and won't know if they can actually compete in the competition until after this tie is concluded.

These little issues makes it a tougher game to get a grip of, but I do think Fenerbache look a touch under-rated in their home stadium. Everyone knows how difficult it is to come to Turkey to take on their teams because of the loud support they receive from the stands, although Arsenal have plenty of experience to fall back on.

Arsenal have also won all of their qualifying games for the Champions League in recent years and that experience, as well as a 2-5 win in this stadium a few seasons ago, will give them belief that they can win here.

However, there just seems to be a little too many negatives in the Arsenal camp at the moment and while I believe they will come through this tie, I do think a small interest in Fenerbache having a lead to take to London is the call at the prices.


Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: The Aston Villa fans travelling to Stamford Bridge will be hoping the team shows a lot more resiliency than they have in recent 7-1 and 8-0 losses at this ground, but the performance on Saturday at the Emirates Stadium will have given them confidence.

The pace in forward positions mean Aston Villa are likely to be a dangerous counter-attacking side all season, especially away from home where they can sit back and try and spring on teams. That won't be easy if Chelsea play in the same manner as they did in the first half against Hull City on Sunday afternoon.

Jose Mourinho's second era as manager of Chelsea got off to the perfect start with a couple of early goals and completely dominating Hull in the opening half, but the game settled in the second half and this Chelsea side will still give their opponents some opportunity.

Without the protection that his former Chelsea had, the lack of pace in John Terry is a little more exposed and I do anticipate Villa causing some problems. However, anything less than a home win would be a surprise although I am expecting a closer game than we saw last season.

I do anticipate Villa getting a couple of chances to trouble Petr Cech and I think both teams will score in this one, although I will keep my interest to a minimum simply because of the way Mourinho can set up his team once they have a lead.


Swansea v Petrolul Ploiesti Pick: This is clearly a competition that Michael Laudrup wants to take seriously for Swansea this season and I am also expecting a reaction from the home side after their 1-4 loss to Manchester United on the opening day.

While United were ruthless in front of goal, I think it would be fair to say that the scoreline did Swansea a disservice considering the pattern of the game. They are playing a confident team from Romania that has made a strong start to the season, but Swansea are going to be a stronger team than Petrolul Ploiesti are used to play on a regular basis.

I expect Laudrup will use his European managerial experience to make sure his team know that they cannot afford to allow an away goal and I expect the focus will be to keep a clean sheet. With the likes of Michu and Wilfried Bony in the line up, Swansea will expect to score and I think they will have the advantage for the return leg in seven days time.


MY PICKS: Shakhter Karagandy + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lyon @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
AC Milan @ 2.70 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Dinamo Zagreb @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Fenerbache @ 2.90 William Hill (1 Unit)
Chelsea-Aston Villa Both to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Swansea Win to Nil @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


August Update: 5-4, + 4.60 Units (15 Units Staked, + 30.67% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)