Tennis Picks Canadian Masters 2013 (August 9th)

It was a day when a huge number of favourites and seeded players were dumped out of the tournament, although some in more controversial situations than others.I said the bottom half of the draw could have been open for David Ferrer in my outright picks, but the Spaniard was beaten yesterday and won't be taking advantage of the carnage we saw today.

Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro were all knocked out in the Third Round in Montreal in the bottom half of the draw on Thursday, all in positions of being the favourites and so we are likely to see an unfamiliar name competing for the title on Sunday.

Del Potro's exit was controversial as he was leading the second set 43 with a break of serve and was at deuce in the game- Raonic looked to have an easy winner but ran into the net, something the umpire unbelievably missed and then refused to overturn the call despite it being replayed on the big screen.

Mohamed Lahyani made a big mistake by not deciding to change his mind, but I think the bigger mistake may be on the part of Milos Raonic as he should have accepted that he lost the point, as his body language indicated right after he touched the net, and that won't go down too well with his fellow pros I would imagine.

It led to Del Potro being broken and I think he lost all nine points played after that call to lose the match 75, 64 as tiredness looked like it had him beat, which was one of my concerns for him after his exploits in Washington last week.

So far, this has to be one of the strangest weeks on the Tour so far in 2013 with a lot of surprise results in both the men's and women's tournaments being played, but hopefully the final few days will settle down to some extent before the Tours meet up in Cincinnati next week. The only real good news of the week is that Novak Djokovic is still in the draw and is the big favourite to make it three in a row in Canada, although a potential Semi Final with Rafael Nadal is still in the pipeline.


Sara Errani + 4.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanksa: This looks like a lot of games to be giving to Sara Errani in a match up where she and Agnieszka Radwanska play a very similar brand of tennis.

The hard courts will always be a little tougher for Errani as she cannot retrieve the ball in the same manner as she can on a clay court, but she has won plenty of matches on the surface over the last eighteen months. That run includes reaching the Semi Final at the US Open last year and I think Errani is much more likely to find life tough against those aggressive players that will look to hit through her.

It won't be the case in this Quarter Final as Radwanska is much happier playing the long, drawn out rallies and hope her variation can get her through matches. The Polish player is unlikely to be able to hit through Errani, as that isn't her game, and that should give the Italian plenty of chances to break serve in this one herself.

Neither player has a huge serve so I imagine this will be a fairly long match, but I can see Errani stealing a set and keeping within the spread in this one, even if she can't quite win the match.


Na Li - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: After coming through a really testing time in her match against Roberta Vinci, Dominika Cibulkova will surely be feeling very confident of her chances of adding another hard court title to her name during this summer. However, she will have to serve better if she is to get through Na Li, a very established hard court player.

Na Li reached the Final in Canada and Cincinnati last season, winning one of those events, so she has plenty of points to defend, but she is capable of doing so. She will look to be very aggressive against the Cibulkova second serve and that is one area where Li can certainly dominate this match.

The higher seeded player will also have to serve better than she did in the first two sets against Ana Ivanovic yesterday if she is to keep the pressure on an aggressive Cibulkova, although there will be breaks of serve in this one. However, Li should prove to be a little too consistent, a little too powerful and a little too good for Cibulkova who has had a lot of tennis go through her legs in the last three weeks.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: Petra Kvitova has struggled ever since winning Wimbledon in 2011, but she has looked decent in her opening two matches this week and could be a touch under-rated to beat Sorana Cirstea with this spread.

There is no doubt that Kvitova has plenty of talent and she can serve effectively to put her opponents under pressure, but the consistency has just not been there over the last couple of years. If she can play as she has been this week, then it could be a really tough ask for Sorana Cirstea to keep hold of her.

Cirstea is another player with a lot of potential that has struggled to keep the consistency needed to really move into the top echelons of the women's game. The Romanian has played really well in the last few tournaments, but has fallen disappointingly short, particularly when she was beaten by Alize Cornet in Washington last week.

Like Kvitova, Cirstea has a very effective first serve and it could come down to which of these players has the better first serve percentage as to who will go through. Both will look to be aggressive in the match and unforced error count will also be key to their chances of winning the match.

Personally I believe Kvitova's game is the more solid of the two and I like her to come through this one in two tight sets.


Novak Djokovic-Richard Gasquet Under 20.5 total games: This Quarter Final should be one that Novak Djokovic is able to get through, although he will have to start much better than he did against Denis Istomin in the Third Round yesterday.

The match up is a good one against Richard Gasquet as the Frenchman does seem to have a mental block when it comes to facing the best players on the ATP Tour and he has been dominated in the head to head against Djokovic.

It has been twelve months since the players last met, but Djokovic is certainly capable of winning this one with a break in each set as he can put a lot of pressure on Gasquet with his return of serve. There is also a real difference in where both of these players stand on a court and the more aggressive stance of Djokovic should help him win this match as long as he can hold his errors together.

It's just not a match up that works well for Gasquet as far as I am concerned and I expect this to end 63, 64 to the World Number 1.


MY PICKS: Sara Errani + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic-Richard Gasquet Under 20.5 Total Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-9, - 3.26 Units (33 Units Staked, - 9.88 % Yield)