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Thursday, 8 August 2013

Tennis Picks Canadian Masters 2013 (August 8th)

Wednesday was not a great day for the picks after Caroline Wozniacki missed match points to win her match against Sorana Cirstea, while the bigger issue was the exit of David Ferrer as one of my outright picks this week.

There have been a number of shocks and surprise results this week as some players are getting their preparation going for the final Grand Slam of the season, but hopefully the rest of the week will turn a little less erratic than it has been during the first three days.

I had a couple of things to do with a day off from work today so these picks are later than usual, although with plenty of time before the first matches will begin/

Marion Bartoli - 3.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: The Wimbledon Champion had been suffering from a slight injury after her success at SW19, but Marion Bartoli was back with a bang as she dismantled Lauren Davis in the Second Round.

You can't always tell how a player will respond to winning their maiden Grand Slam- however, Marion Bartoli looks to have tunnel vision to what she wants to achieve in the game and I actually think it could make her a more dangerous player with one title under her belt.

She gives all she can when she gets out onto the court and can certainly force Magdalena Rybarikova to earn anything she gets from this match. The latter is another  player with a winning run to defend in this Third Round match after winning in Washington last week, but there is a chance that all that tennis will catch up with her as she has to play every day going forward.

The aggressive return of serve that Bartoli likes to push is going to cause Rybarikova some problems and I do believe the Frenchwoman wins this 64, 64.

Roberta Vinci - 1.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: I was impressed with the way Dominika Cibulkova managed to fight through her match with Angelique Kerber after twice looking like she was down and out, but this is a tough match up for her and it could be the end of her run here.

Cibulkova is playing well this summer as she won the title in Stanford, while she is playing an aggressive brand of tennis that will certainly be aided by the hard courts. However, she seems to have a problem facing Roberta Vinci and that could be down to the retrieval skills of the Italian and the variation she employs in her game.

It is a far cry from the late 80's and 90's when there was a lot more finesse in the women's game and these days players are much happier thumping the ball all around the court. Vinci is almost a throwback to the older times as she loves slicing and dicing around the court and also pressuring opponents by getting to net and putting away volleys.

That variation is not seen much on the courts these days and is clearly something that bothers Cibulkova who has lost 8 sets in a row against Vinci, including at the US Open last summer and Wimbledon this year. I believe there is a mental barrier for Cibulkova to overcome in this one and I like the Italian to come through.

Ernests Gulbis + 1.5 sets v Andy Murray: Andy Murray was back on court for the first time since winning Wimbledon and he was perhaps a touch fortunate to come through in straight sets against Marcel Granollers who served to level the match at 1-1 in sets.

There is no doubt that Murray is currently the favourite to win the US Open with the way he played over the last two months, and he has a chance to close the gap on Novak Djokovic in the World Number 1 Ranking place with a good run here.

However, I think this going to be a real test for Murray as he is up against a player in Ernests Gulbis that loves playing the best players on the Tour. Gulbis has won a couple of matches here already and is 11-1 on the hard courts this season which included a run to the Fourth Round at Indian Wells in March. On that occasion, Gulbis lost a three set match against Rafael Nadal and he has a big enough game to cause Murray some real problems.

The Latvian will have to serve well if he is to take a set, at least, off of Murray but he can do so if he is on his game. I expect Gulbis to fashion some chances on the Murray serve and I do think he can take a set here.

Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: There are obviously going to be a couple of doubts surrounding Juan Martin Del Potro's fitness after he won in Washington last week, but he has had a few days to get ready for this tournament. If he is ready to play this match, I think the big Argentine can remove the last remaining home hope in Canada.

Del Potro certainly looks like a player that is going to be capable of going close to winning the US Open later this month and he has a lot of power that could prove too much for Milos Raonic to deal with. I definitely believe Del Potro is better off the ground and if he can make enough balls back from the monster serve Raonic possesses, I do think Del Potro finds a way to come through.

He showed he is capable of nullifying a big serve when he beat John Isner in Washington last week, but Del Potro will need to serve well if he is going to find a way to win this one. Both players have power, but Del Potro has it off both wings and I am not sure that attacking the net will work out too well for Raonic if he doesn't build points effectively.

This has been a tough season for Raonic and I believe he is a touch over-rated in this one, although the fitness concerns for Del Potro could be the biggest factor to consider. However, I believe it will be Del Potro who reaches the next Round after a 75, 76 win.

MY PICKS: Marion Bartoli - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis + 1.5 Sets @ 2.38 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 2.02 Units (27 Units Staked, - 7.48% Yield)

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