You have to take the rough with the smooth when you make picks regularly as I have for the blog, as there are going to be times when stretches of bad luck are around as well as times when everything seems to slot into place just as predicted.
For the first time, despite a number of close calls going the other way over the last month (players getting to match point and still losing, players covering spreads against me even though they lose the match outright when I am taking the games, not going against them, players reaching Finals and dominating matches but failing to take the title home, etc, etc), I did let out a sigh as I caught up with the results coming through.
Did Guillaume Rufin really have a 2-0 lead in sets, but proceed to lose the next two sets 62, 62, before winning the match 61 in the final set?
Did Nikolay Davydenko have the expected slump in a set, but this time the player that couldn't stop breaking the Juan Martin Del Potro serve and playing unbreakable tennis in that match goes through a period of losing 8 of 9 games and wins the match 3-2 in sets, not 3-1?
Did Fernando Verdasco recover from 0-2 down in sets, have all the momentum but then open up by losing 3 games in a row and fail to take three break back chances in game 7 and another in game 9?
Did Carlos Berlocq really lose a third set where he served for it at 53, and also was 62 up in the tie-break?
To say I have been frustrated on the opening day of this tournament is unfair- it is a month long period of annoying little things happening which have turned potentially very successful weeks into some disappointing ones and ruined what had looked like being a season to match last years success at the least. The results from Day 1 have left me behind the black ball, but it is early in the tournament and that crappy luck will surely have to turn if players continue getting into strong positions- surely they can't keep choking those positions away!!
I would love to know what the organisers of the US Open were doing when they decided to schedule a 'concert' at 7pm local time which delayed the tennis until 830pm... Serena Williams rattled through her match, but the expected rain that had been promised in the evening arrived and that meant Roger Federer couldn't get onto court and the match was delayed until Day 2.
For some reason, the layers have been incredibly lazy pricing up the matches which are to take place on Day 2, especially as they are all First Round matches that had been set last Friday. That means the picks will be posted here in the hours before Day 2 begins so check back then. Hopefully, there will have been some element of a change in fortunes for those picks that are made at that point.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Anna Tatishvili: There are times that Ana Ivanovic looks nothing like a top 20 player as she can lose confidence within matches and end up struggling, while surprise losses have hit her ever since winning her only Grand Slam at the French Open.
There are also times when Ivanovic plays like she should be a lot higher than her current World Ranking of 15 and I am looking for that kind of performance from her today in her First Round match against Anna Tatishvili.
Tatisvili has had a few really tight losses this summer during the hard court swing, but that has dropped her to 0-8 on this surface in 2013 and the hard courts are not her favoured surface despite reaching the Fourth Round here last season.
If Ivanovic can keep her focus, she should be a little too good for Tatishvili and I do think she can win this one 64, 62 as long as her serve isn't going through the struggles that it can sometimes.
Alize Cornet - 5.5 games v Maria Joao Koehler: Alize Cornet isn't a player that has had a lot of success on the hard courts, but she has had a productive summer which should bring a lot of confidence to the table for this First Round match.
Cornet should be able to get enough balls in play to expose errors from the Maria Joao Koehler game, although the latter should also be feeling good about her game after coming through three qualifying matches to make the main draw.
Koehler has played well on the hard courts outside of the main Tour so she is a capable player, but I expect the French player to be a little too strong although there will be plenty of breaks of serve in this one. Cornet should be able to take a tight first set before moving away from Koehler in this one.
Caroline Wozniacki - 6.5 games v Ying-Ying Duan: There are rumours that Caroline Wozniacki has broken up with long-term partner Rory McIlroy, but she played well enough in New Haven last week to think the Danish player is still in a decent place mentally for this Grand Slam tournament.
Wozniacki will start her tournament against the qualifier Ying-Ying Duan who hasn't had a lot of experience at this level, but who spends 95% of her time playing in hard court tournaments. Duan won't be used to playing someone like Wozniacki and the very strong defence she has on a tennis court and I expect that to make a big difference in the match.
This should be a fairly straight-forward win for Caroline Wozniacki and I do think we will see a set end either 61 or 62 in her favour which should set her up for the cover of this big spread.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: It has been a strong summer for Dominika Cibulkova with a big win in the tournament in Stanford, but she has lost three matches in a row coming into this final Grand Slam of the year.
The problem that has always existed for Cibulkova is her aggressive style has a small margin between success and failure- there are days when she can't hit anything inside the court and that leads to defeats, while on others she can be unplayable with power and precision leading to wins.
If the latter comes out in this First Round match, she should be too strong for an inexperienced Elina Svitolina who also won a tournament on the main Tour this summer as well as picking up a Challenger title. The tournament that Svitolina won in Baku wasn't the strongest, but it will have given her confidence, although I am not sure she can keep tabs with Cibulkova and the more experienced player should come through 64, 63.
Sam Stosur - 6.5 games v Victoria Duval: A former US Open Champion takes on a young home hope that has come through three qualifying matches in this First Round match.
Sam Stosur seems to really enjoy her time in New York and is comfortable in the surroundings and I think she will have just too much for Victoria Duval to deal with at this stage of her career.
Duval has pushed Jelena Jankovic in a match earlier this season, but she generally plays at a lower level than the main Tour competitors and there aren't many players that can replicate the serve that Sam Stosur brings to the table. I expect the Australian to use that weapon to form the basis on a winning run in this one and it will also put pressure on Duval to keep holding her own serve to keep tabs on Stosur.
It should be competitive, but if Stosur remains focused, a 63, 62 win could be on the cards.
Denis Istomin + 1.5 sets v Nicolas Almagro: One of the most up and down players on the Tour is Denis Istomin who fluctuates from giving the likes of Novak Djokovic all they can handle to struggling to win games against Brian Baker or Guillaume Rufin.
The hard courts should favour Istomin's game, but this is an incredibly tough First Round match against Nicolas Almagro, although the Spaniard has been having a poor season this year compared with his most recent performances.
A best of five set should help Almagro who can play some sloppy sets, but Istomin is also capable of going through runs of unplayable tennis. I am going to have a small interest that Istomin wins at least two sets in the match, although I do have concerns with the way Istomin can suddenly playing some very poor tennis and Almagro is certainly someone not to take lightly.
Benjamin Becker - 1.5 sets v Lukas Rosol: Both of these players are erratic and I can trust neither with real conviction to play as I expect them to.
Benjamin Becker had his best moment on Tour at the US Open as he beat Andre Agassi in what was the American's last match on the Tour. He has a game that should work well on the hard courts, but Becker is erratic and can play some very poor tennis at times.
In saying that, he is going up against a player that has struggled this whole season to keep his consistency at a decent level- he has won a tournament on the clay courts, but Rosol has lost 8 matches in a row coming into the First Round match and he is just 8-14 on the hard courts in the last two seasons.
I saw Becker dominate the match he played against Rosol at Queens in June and I think he is good enough to win either in three or four sets.
Florian Mayer v Juan Monaco: I am having a small interest in the underdog to win this match as I had Florian Mayer as the favourite before I saw the prices on this match.
Mayer has the stronger head to head record, although Juan Monaco did beat the German in four sets in a Davis Cup tie on the clay courts, but the hard courts should favour Mayer a little more.
Monaco is just 2-5 on the hard courts this season and was beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open and at the US Open last season, although I will admit that Mayer can be very erratic with his play as he doesn't have a dominant shot to turn to when he is playing critical points.
I am guessing there will be a lot of breaks of serve in the match, but Mayer might just prove to be too good at the critical times and come through.
Steve Johnson - 1.5 sets v Tobias Kamke: The final pick from Day 2 will be taking a small interest in Steve Johnson to beat Tobias Kamke in either three or four sets.
The American had a solid week in Winston Salem last week, but Johnson hasn't found the consistency to really make a splash on the main Tour just yet. However, he is playing an opponent that can look flashy at times, but one who will also likely go through periods of making a number of unforced errors.
Tobias Kamke has a winning record on the hard courts so far, but his serve is not the strongest and he will give Johnson a chance to find breaks in those games and I just think he might not like the atmosphere on the court as his opponent will get a lot of support. Johnson did reach the Third Round here last season, but he can be erratic and that is why I can only have a small interest at best.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 6.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Istomin + 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Benjamin Becker - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Florian Mayer @ 2.25 Stan James (1 Unit)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Sets @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Carlos Berlocq @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit) To be Completed 63, 36, 67, 12
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units) Recommended Yesterday but Rain Delayed
US Open Update: 1-5, - 5.2 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57.78& Yield)
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