Tennis Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 14th)

With the way things have been going, it isn't a huge surprise to me to see the way Maria Sharapova collapsed in her match against Sloane Stephens- the former World Number 1 was leading 62, 20 and had been dominating the match to the at point, but then suddenly and inexplicably started making too many errors and ended up losing the second set on a tie-break.

The nature of the errors were frustrating as Sharapova wasn't missing by a little bit, but was wild and out of touch. I will also credit Sloane Stephens as she changed her tactics a little bit, getting a little more aggressive and moving towards the net, while the American also cut right down on her own unforced errors that had seen the first set get away from her.

Still, it is no consolation to me when a player is in such a strong position and then breaks down completely, especially when there are little signs of that happening. Some of the picks have just needed a touch of luck to get over the line and I do feel there is a really big few days coming which will turn around this negative feeling that has developed over the last three weeks.


It was at least a winning day on Tuesday and we now have plenty of tennis yet to be played this week and I do believe that the turning point could arrive sooner rather than later.


Tommy Haas - 4.5 games v Marcel Granollers: I was a little surprised to see that Marcel Granollers has won the only previous meeting between these two on a hard court, but the conditions here should favour Tommy Haas to work his way through.

Granollers is a strange player to get a hold of as it seems he is there to be broken when he is serving as he can make a lot of unforced errors during extended rallies. The first serve is decent, but getting it back in play gives more than a little chance to win the point, but the Spaniard's second serve is stronger than average as he wins enough points behind that to remain competitive.

The difference in the match is Tommy Haas is capable of winning cheap points behind his own first serve if he is playing well and he should have picked up confidence from a fairly dominant performance against Kevin Anderson in the First Round.

As long as the German is a little ruthless when it comes to break points, I do think he will win this match 63, 64.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: I was surprised that Mikhail Youzhny proved to be a little too strong for Ernests Gulbis in the First Round, although the match could have been very different if the Latvian had taken one of three break points he had in the first set.

Youzhny hasn't been the most effective player on the hard courts over the last couple of seasons as players can sometimes overpower him and manage to hit through his defences. Andy Murray will also be very happy with the match up that is presented in this one as Youzhny is unlikely to try and out-hit the Wimbledon Champion.

Reaching the doubles Final last week in Montreal should help move Murray along after a couple of inconsistent performances in the singles in the first tournament back since early July. I expect a much stronger performance from the Brit ahead of his defence of the US Open crown and I do believe he will feel much better facing Youzhny.

While the Russian can be an awkward customer that will look to be aggressive and get to net, Murray's strong return game should create chances against the serve. I would expect a more consistent serving performance from Murray this week with the matches under his belt last week and that should lead to a fairly comfortable 63, 64 win.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Nikolay Davydenko: I have been impressed with some of the tennis that Nikolay Davydenko has played in the last couple of weeks, but he could be put under immense pressure by Juan Martin Del Potro in this one.

Despite his win yesterday, Davydenko has to be a little concerned with the amount of times he was 15-30 down on serve... Fair enough he came through the majority of those occasions, but eventually that pressure will tell and lead to breaks of serve, particularly against someone who can hit as powerfully as Del Potro.

The Russian can still put in some really good consistent tennis, but he is half a step slower than when in his pomp and I expect Del Potro will be able to exert enough pressure to come through. My biggest concern for the Argentinian player is he was suffering with a slight back problem last week in Montreal which meant his serve was not as effective as it is usually, but that could have been down to the amount of tennis he played the week before in Washington.

He has now had a week to get ready for this match and I do think Del Potro will be at full strength for this one- with that in mind, I expect him to record the same result as when they met in Indian Wells and Del Potro to win 63, 64


Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: It was a top performance from Feliciano Lopez, up until serving for the match in the second set anyway, in the First Round yesterday and I do believe the Spaniard is capable of backing that up against Jeremy Chardy in this Second Round match.

It has been a really good couple of months for Lopez since he returned to the Tour from an injury and his game should be perfectly suited to the hard courts. He has a big lefty serve that will provide a lot of cheap points and confidence has to be high.

I expect that serve to help Lopez along the way in this match against a solid competitor like Jeremy Chardy- the Frenchman also has a decent first serve which can be very good when it is firing at the top of its game, but he will need it at its best to hold off Lopez in this one.

This should be a fairly quick match as both guys could rattle through service games at time, but Lopez is the slightly better player in my opinion, particularly on current form, and also has a better hard court pedigree. Both previous matches between these players have ended in three setters, but I have a feeling Lopez will be able to see this out in straight sets if he continues serving as well as he can on these faster surfaces.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Tommy Robredo: I think Tommy Robredo was a touch fortunate with the draw here in Cincinnati as he met the completely out of sorts Thomaz Bellucci, but it took the Spaniard three sets to see him off.

He may have a 5-1 head to head record against Stanislas Wawrinka, including a win on the clay courts earlier this season, but Robredo has not had a successful year on the hard courts and that may continue here.

The reason could be that it is a little easier to hit through Robredo on the faster surfaces, while his own serve doesn't have a great deal of bite on it and opponents will have a chance to break his serve. Losing serve on the faster surfaces are that much harder to recover and Wawrinka can certainly take advantage of that.

Wawrinka had been suffering with a back injury that forced his withdrawal from Gstaad recently and he suffered an early loss in Montreal. However, he was serving very well in his win over Andreas Seppi in the First Round here and a similar performance should see him come through 64, 64 today.


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Benjamin Becker: You can only be impressed with Rafael Nadal this season on his comeback from a seven month lay off and I don't think too many people would have backed him to win the two hard court tournaments he played. The big concern was whether his knees could hold up on the hard courts, but wins in Indian Wells and Montreal suggest he is feeling comfortable as is his participation in back to back hard court events.

There is every chance that Nadal can end the season as the World Number 1 having moved back to Number 3 this week. He has nothing to defend in terms of points until the South American clay court tournaments next February and big runs in remaining Masters tournaments, the US Open and the End of Year Championships in London will see the Spaniard move up and very close to the Number 1 Ranking.

The best thing about Nadal on a tennis court is that he plays every point as if it is the last he will ever see and that fight should give Benjamin Becker some real problems. Becker has a decent first serve which should help him out at points in this one, but I expect Nadal to make enough balls back to win the match fairly comfortably.

As long as his knees hold out, I would expect a 62, 64 win over the German and move on to the Third Round.


Sara Errani - 4.5 games v Polona Hercog: Sara Errani is surprisingly effective on the hard courts considering her serve can be very attackable and you would think players could overpower her on the faster surfaces. However, Errani is also capable of counter-attacking very aggressively, while she extracts a lot of errors from opponents by simply making them play one extra ball.

Errani should be a little too consistent for Polona Hercog, although the latter had a very good win over Dominika Cibulkova in the First Round after qualifying for the tournament.

However, Hercog was aided by Cibulkova in that match who served 7 double faults and was only 1/10 from break points and she is unlikely to find Errani so generous. Over the last twelve months, Hercog has struggled on the hard courts and it looks like the Italian will be good enough to secure a 62, 64 win.


Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Monica Niculescu has taken advantage of her Lucky Loser spot to reach the Second Round, but her run may come to an end against Caroline Wozniacki.

Niculescu's game is based on a lot of grimy tennis as she uses slices, drop shots and a lot of variation to try and confuse her opponents, but I am not sure that will be effective against someone like Wozniacki who is comfortable playing that brand of tennis.

The biggest problems for Wozniacki on the court is when a player tries to hit through her, especially on the faster courts, and Niculescu is unlikely to use that as a tactic which should make this a comfortable match for the Dane.

We should see a few breaks of serve in the match as neither is dominant in that department, but I expect Wozniacki to be a little too good and come through 63, 63.


MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-8, - 4.4 Units (28 Units Staked, - 15.71% Yield)