Tennis Picks Canadian Masters 2013 (August 10th)

The bottom half of the draw in Montreal certainly did open up for a surprise player to come through and make the Final at this Masters event, but I don't think many would have picked two Canadians to be competing for that place.

It has been a surprising week in terms of some of the results we have seen and with the big names departing early, but we are still going to be given a treat as Novak Djokovic will take on Rafael Nadal in the second Semi Final. This is going to be a little more tense as it hasn't been so long since Djokovic's father said in an interview that Nadal and Roger Federer are jealous of the success his son has had over the last three seasons.


The women's Semi Finals look a little more one-sided as both Na Li and Serena Williams will be expected to see off Sorana Cirstea and Agnieszka Radwanska respectively. I do think both of the favourites will come through their Semi Finals and should make for a good Final on Sunday.


The Masters events in Canada have often been strange events as some of the biggest names are a little undercooked so there are more chances for surprise results and that has been the case all week. However, the picks are still in a decent position, particularly the one on Novak Djokovic to win the tournament and the last couple of days will hopefully remain in profit.

We will then be moving on to Cincinnati, where the draw has already been made for the second Masters before the US Open, and I'll have my outright preview of that tournament up on Sunday after the Finals are completed in Montreal and Toronto.


Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: At the start of the season, if someone had said Milos Raonic would reach the Semi Final of a Masters event, it wouldn't have been a big surprise to me. However, he has struggled for form for much of the year so seeing him in the Montreal Semi Final is something of a surprise to me, particularly from a quarter containing Juan Martin Del Potro and Andy Murray.

However, the bigger surprise would be seeing the Wild Card Vasek Pospisil in the Semi Final- he is 71 in the World Rankings, but he has had a strong summer so far with a Semi Final in Bogota and a win in the important Challenger tournament in Vancouver under the belt before this week.

Pospisil has a big serve, like Raonic, and he can make life awkward by attacking the net and forcing opponents to pass him. The difference between the players is that I believe Raonic, who will also win a fair share of points from the serve alone, is better than Pospisil from the back of the court and that should prove to be the difference between them.

The problem that Raonic has had with his right arm has to be a concern, but he should get the better of his fellow Canadian, although it may come down to a couple of points here and there. I expect Raonic can earn at least one break of serve more than Pospisil in the match and come through 64, 76.


Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This is the Semi Final everyone would have been looking forward to when the draw was made last week and I haven't seen a lot to discourage me from what I said in the outright picks at the start of the week.

Rafael Nadal has certainly removed the doubts some had after his shock exit at Wimbledon and it is clear his knees are ready to withstand the full Tour, although I am surprised he has decided to play both hard court Masters events this month.

Of course he could still decide to pull out in Cincinnati next week, but I do think Novak Djokovic will be ready to get some revenge on his rival. The flames in this rivalry have been fanned by Djokovic's father who claimed Nadal is jealous of the success Djokovic has had since the beginning of 2011, while the two players have split their two matches played this season, although significantly both were on the clay courts.

I do think Djokovic is the better hard court player of the two and that is borne out by the 9-3 head to head lead the World Number 1 has over Nadal on outdoor hard courts, including winning the last four in a row.

His backhand down the line is a lot more effective on the faster surface against the Nadal backhand as the ball can zip through the court that little bit quicker, and Djokovic is comfortable rallying with Nadal. I also feel Djokovic can set up more points behind his serve, and, although Nadal has served well this week, that little pressure release of earning a cheap point could be significant.

I am expecting a good quality match, but I like Djokovic to win this one 64, 63 and will back him to cover this spread.


MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-10, + 0.12 Units (41 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)