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Tuesday, 13 September 2011

US Open Recap

The final Grand Slam of the season has come and gone in Flushing Meadows and it was an interesting tournament as Novak Djokovic underlined his status as the World Number 1, while Serena Williams had her 2nd consecutive meltdown at this event.

Below are a few thoughts coming out of the event and also the season profit update.

1) Novak Djokovic has already recorded the best tennis season in memory: When I say this, I mean in the Men's game although it is also arguable that it is the best single season in both the Men's and Women's events. To go 70-2 while picking up 3 Grand Slams is mighty impressive, but to do it in an era when Men's tennis is definitely in a 'boom' phase makes the feat even more incredible.

The Serb could easily have gone out to Roger Federer in the Semi Final but staved off 2 match points and has now improved his record to 11-1 against Federer and Rafael Nadal in 2011, an incredible statistic on its own.

I am sure he will have a long rest until the tournament in Shanghai now (I think he will pull out of Serbia's Davis Cup tie at the weekend), but he still has 2 achievements left that will truly cap this wonderful year: winning at the O2 at the End of Year Championships and retaining the Davis Cup with Serbia.

2) Rafael Nadal needs to go back to the drawing board in dealing with Djokovic: Nadal has shown in this tournament that he is definitely the 2nd best player in the World, but he needs to find a solution to the Djokovic problem after losing 6 straight Finals against the Serb this year.

For long periods he didn't know what exactly he wanted to do yesterday and his forehand just does not trouble Djokovic: you have to credit the World Number 1 from analysing the games of Nikolay Davydenko and David Nalbandian and trying to take the ball early to remove all of Nadal's heavy spin, something those two players have had success with in the past, just not with Djokovic's consistency.

Nadal needs to look to get more out of his serve, as he doesn't get enough free points from it. For years the complaint was that he did not use the natural 'lefty serve' in the advantage court and that is something he should go away and develop for the 2012 season.

At the moment he is forced to work so hard for every single point and the consistency and power of Djokovic is taking it out of him.

3) Will Roger Federer add to his Grand Slam tally? I still think Federer has another Grand Slam left in him, only being ousted here in New York by a 'lucky' shot on match point 1 against Novak Djokovic.

He will need the right draw if he is to make an impact at Slam level though, as more and more people fancy their chances against him and the top 2 really do not hold fear of him.

I am not ready to rule Federer out just yet.

4) Caroline Wozniacki once again showed she is not a World Number 1: I will give the Dane her credit and say she is out on the tour almost all the time so she deserves her ranking for consistency, but personally I would change the Ranking system to put more and more importance on the Grand Slam events and the upper tour events while lessening the points gained in winning the tournaments where only one or two of the top 30 players will be competing.

Wozniacki was completely outgunned by Serena Williams and had no real idea to deal with the American. Defeats to Dominika Cibulkova and Daniela Hantuchova in the last 2 Grand Slams are not what is expected of a World Number 1 either.

I think it will be tough to take the World Number 1 off Wozniacki in the near future, unless Serena Williams devotes more time to a fuller schedule on the tour next season.


The tennis picks will slow down over the next 3-4 weeks as there is a rest period coming up for the main players while the events on offering are not the best.

I will make a couple of Davis Cup Picks if I can find some value in the market so check in later on in the week for those. In the meantime I will continue making my football, College Football and NFL picks.

US OPEN DAILY PICKS: 27-18, + 27.36 Units


US OPEN OUTRIGHT PICKS: - 12 Units


OVERALL US OPEN TOURNAMENT: +15.36 Units


SEASON PROFIT/LOSS: + 82.08 Units

4 comments:

  1. Hey Dav,

    I'm the one that commented last week about the 'traitorous Tipsarevic tweet' hehe.

    Just wanted to say well done for the US Open picks. Followed your posts the whole way and enjoyed reading your previews. I was only surprised you didn't jump on the Serb from the beginning, but taking Federer was hardly a bad choice.

    On a side note, I have to say I'm a big fan of Tipsarevic too. I first noticed him in '08 in the Australian Open and I had a wager on the handicap when he met Federer (also games total). Suffice to say, I was very happy how that match panned out.

    Great to see him getting deep(ish) into the US Open this year. It will be great to see how much he can still improve and what success awaits him in the future.

    Finally, a good recap of the Open. Can't fault you on any of those 4 views. It's scary how good Nole has become and I can't actually see one player on the circuit who will give him trouble in the near future.
    Nadal...well, i think he needs a new first serve for one(against Djokovic especially!).
    You can see the help someone like Federer gets when he has a wicked first serve (remember his serving when he played Nole in the French?). It's obvioulsy going to release some pressure and help your game.
    Wozniacki...well, who cares really. I don't think anyone takes her or her ranking that seriously.

    Here's hoping to a Sam Stosur win in the '12 Aussie Open and a calendar Grand Slam for Nole!

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello Daniel,

    Thanks for the nice comments, and I am glad the picks helped you out (as well as my bank balance) over the last couple of weeks.

    I am kicking myself for not picking Novak to win the whole thing in hindsight, I just thought Federer was going to be too good for him with the slight injury problems the Serb had been suffering with- knowing the way these things work, if I had picked Djokovic, he would have just missed the shot that saved him on match point against Federer in the Semi Final.

    I too love the heart Tipsarevic has, but the key for him will be if he can help lead Serbia in Djokovic's likely absence in the Davis Cup- being able to do that kick started Fernando Verdasco's career at the end of 2008 and it will pump Tipsarevic with the belief that he can go far in future tournaments too.


    The other area Federer beats Nadal when it comes to facing Djokovic is the nature of his groundstrokes- Federer hits the ball much flatter on occasions, and that pressures the Serb a lot more, while Djokovic can consistently deal with Nadal's heavy spin shots.

    Federer's one handed backhand really struggles against heavy spin, whereas Djokovic's two hander is solid and consistent.

    It also increases the interest at the top of the Men's game because we seem to have 3 players that all have weaknesses against one of the others while they fancy their chances against the other:

    Nadal can deal with Federer
    Federer can deal with Djokovic
    Djokovic can deal with Nadal.


    Thanks again for the comments, hopefully you will keep following the blog as the tennis season draws to a close and the build up to the Australian Open will begin in January

    Dav

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sure will keep following Dav!

    I LOVE Premier League and La Liga, and your NFL tips have sparked an interest in watching and learning the sport.

    Those bloody Bengals AND the Vikings cost me! Oh well, nature of the beast I suppose.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Definitely would recommend watching the NFL, great sport, but picking against the spread means its tough to bring in 100% weeks.

    ReplyDelete

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