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Monday, 5 September 2011

US Open Day 8 Picks

The picks were very successful yesterday and have pushed the profits up above 20 units from the daily picks alone during this tournament.

All of the outright picks are also in tact, barring the small pick on Agnieszka Radwansksa, so all in all the US Open has been a good tournament for me so far.

However, this is now the stage where the tournament gets tougher to predict as we are almost at the Quarter Final stage in the Women's event and the 4th Round of the Men's event beginning today.

I am going to do my best to ensure I do not give back the hard earned profits from the last 7 days.

Day 8 Picks:

Francesca Schiavone vs Anastasia Pavyluchenkova: I am picking the underdog, Francesca Schiavone, to open the days proceedings with a win over the young talented Russian.

I feel the odds have been set the way they have due to the time on court Schiavone has spent in the last Round, coupled with Pavyluchenkova's impressive straight sets win over the in-form Jelena Jankovic.

However, Schiavone has had a days rest since her win over Chanelle Scheepers, and I think Pavyluchenkova was in a good place mentally to take on Jankovic as she had won their 2 previous meetings.

This match will pose a different sort of pressure on the Russian as she is down 1-3 in the head to head with Schiavone and was beaten at the French Open in May and also here in Flushing Meadows in 2010 by this opponent.

I expect the dogged Italian to force Pavyluchenkova to hit one more ball on one too many occasions and grind her way to a win, possibly in 3 sets.

Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: The Serb is definitely getting better and more accustomed to reaching the latter stages of tournaments and I think he will be good enough to see off the veteran Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero and pick up his first career win over him.

However, Tipsarevic is plenty short in the market and he still has the tendency to check out of sets so the option of picking him to win while losing a set appeals to me.

Ferrero has fought through two 5 set matches to reach this stage of the tournament, but he was given an extended rest after his opponent in the last Round retired.

I just don't think he has consistency these days to keep up with Tipsarevic as the match enters the latter stages and I think the Serb will have enough to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.

Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 games: The handicap has moved another game in favour of Serena Williams and I think it looks a little long now, but the American should be far too good for Ana Ivanovic and I expect a routine straight sets win.

Williams is hitting the ball so well at the moment and it is like she has never been away. She outplayed Victoria Azarenka in the last Round for most of the match, with the World Number 4 barely surviving into a tie break in the 2nd set through heart and guts alone.

Ivanovic does not strike me as someone who has the belief in her game to come back if Williams gets off to a similar start to Saturday in this match, especially considering the Serb's recent form and also the fact she has lost her 2 previous meetings against Serena.

They met here at the US Open in 2006, when Ivanovic was swiftly moving up the Rankings, and I see a similar 6-4, 6-2 result this time for the favourite to win the title.

Mardy Fish vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This should be a brilliant tennis match regardless of the winner, but I am going to back the American to come through and I know I will be joined by Roger Federer in that hope as he is most likely going to be the next opponent for the winner.

Mardy Fish has been in excellent form this season as he has begun to feel more and more comfortable in his position as America's Number 1 Male player. The pressure for a long time would have been on Andy Roddick in that position coming into Flushing Meadows, but Fish has escaped such expectation as he really is a late bloomer at this level.

I have read some opposition to Fish tonight because of the amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks, but he is in the best shape of his career and did take a week off before the tournament started.

Both players have a similar game, liking to be on the offensive and putting down a foundation with a strong first serve. Both are also very comfortable up the court at the net and the match could come down to who gets the first strike off first.

I just feel Fish is a little more consistent off the ground, even if Tsonga possesses the flashier shots, and that could be enough to take out the Frenchman. It could go a long time though so I would clear a bit of time on your schedule if you want to watch the match.

Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Juan Monaco: The first thing to say is Juan Monaco has given Roger Federer a tough time in their 2 previous meetings, and only lost a tight 2 setter in Miami when they played earlier this season.

However, I fancy the former World Number 1 to win this one with a bit to spare as the conditions should suit him much more and Monaco does not really have the game to threaten Federer consistently.

Federer will, I imagine, also be aware of the adverse weather conditions due to hit New York in the next couple of days and I expect him to play fully focused to win this match as soon as possible.

His serve has been working effectively and he has been rallying well, and I would expect a 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 win for Federer.

MY PICKS: Francesca Schiavone @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)

US OPEN UPDATE: 20-11, + 21.43 Units

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