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Saturday, 3 September 2011

US Open Day 6 Picks

What could go wrong yesterday, did go wrong as my picks fell to a disappointing 0-4.

Lucie Safarova's start to the day (winning 1 game) set the tone, but things got worse from there. Andy Murray had a chance to secure the cover but blew a 4-0 lead in his final set against what looked like a deflated Haase.

James Blake had a break advantage against David Ferrer in sets 2 and 3 but couldn't get over the line and Sam Stosur had plenty of chances in her match against Nadia Petrova but couldn't do the same.

Still, I won't complain about a lack of luck as I have had my fair share too this week and I will hopefully bounce back with a bit of style today.

Day 6 Picks:

Janko Tipsarevic vs Tomas Berdych: This will be a small play on the Serb as I think he is being vastly underestimated against a 'bigger name' in Tomas Berdych.

Tipsarevic can certainly play good tennis and normally thrives against the better players, pushing Roger Federer to 5 sets in Australia in 2008 and beating Andy Roddick when early losses for the American were still a surprise.

To further his credentials, Tipsarevic has beaten Berdych, in the Czech Republic no less, in a Davis Cup tie- and not a meaningless Rubber either, but Rubber 1 in a Semi Final.

Neither player has been pushed too hard in the tournament so far, but Tipsarevic leads the head to head 3-2, including a straight sets win in Montreal last month, and he is worth chancing.


Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Marcel Granollers: This has been set as a pick 'em because of the two 5 setters Juan Carlos Ferrero has played so far in the tournament, but the veteran Spaniard is the better hard court player of the two and I can see him coming through.

Ferrero's win over Gael Monfils, from 2-1 down in sets, shows he is in good form and the former Finalist here will fancy his chances against Granollers who he has beaten in all 3 meetings they have played, including Stuttgart in July.

Granollers has won both his matches in straight sets, but this could be a step too far against a player he would have grown up watching and I think Ferrero will come through in 4.


Roger Federer - 6.5 games vs Marin Cilic: Big hitters have given Roger Federer plenty of problems in the last 6 weeks with both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych beating him on the hard courts, but I struggle to believe Marin Cilic has the consistency to do the same.

It is true that Federer is not the player of old and he may have even lost half a step, yet he still has too much consistency for the erratic Croatian.

There are some real positive signs coming from Cilic in the last 2 months since really struggling in 2011, but his 2nd serve remains a little problem, while the inconsistent forehand will struggle against Federer's biggest weapon.

Federer has won both previous meetings in straight sets against Cilic, and I think this could be his statement match of the tournament so far.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets vs Fernando Verdasco: This has to be the 'popcorn' match of the day as two players who can play some electric tennis meet in the late evening- the match has all the credentials to be a classic and I expect the atmosphere will be special.

Tsonga gets the clear edge considering his recent form, but he is yet to beat Verdasco having lost the 2 previous meetings while winning 1 set and losing 5.

However, the Spaniard's game is not of the level of early 2010 and I think Tsonga has bypassed him comfortably now.

Verdasco is still  capable of the sublime though, and I can see him taking a set, but not stopping Tsonga's march to a very interesting match with Mardy Fish (his most likely opponent).


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games vs Nikolay Davydenko: Go back a couple of seasons and I would have jumped all over the Davydenko + 9.5 games, but the form of the Russian is so far removed from then, while Novak Djokovic is playing some lights out tennis.

They met recently in Montreal and I picked Djokovic to cover 5.5 games in that match, which he went on and won 7-5, 6-1.

That showed me Davydenko is capable of playing some of his old tennis, but not with anything like the consistency of old. I think we will see something similar today where he pushes Djokovic for a set, but will be well beaten by the end of the match as it is the Serb's consistency and power that overwhelm him.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games vs Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams is playing some exceptional tennis and will surely feel she can go all the way if she can negotiate this tough 3rd Round match.

Maria Sharapova's exit yesterday has made Williams the clear favourite to win the tournament, but Azarenka is no pushover.

Williams beat Azarenka 6-3, 6-3 in Toronto and I think her power will overwhelm her opponent again tonight. She has won her last 2 tournaments she has contested, and has only lost 3 games in 2 matches at Flushing Meadows and looks to be playing close to her best.

Azarenka did well to beat Gisela Dulko in straight sets in the last Round, but did give up a few opportunities on her own serve and that could lead to her downfall in this match.


MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Juan Carlos Ferrero @ 1.90 Stan James (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)





US OPEN UPDATE: 12-7, + 10.29 Units

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