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Sunday, 4 September 2011

US Open Day 7 Picks

An interesting day yesterday as Serena Williams became a short priced favourite to win the Women's tournament and Roger Federer moved through after a fairly impressive win over Marin Cilic.

Novak Djokovic looks to be making easy progress through the draw, but may have a tougher time against Alexandr Dolgopolov than some may expect, while a match between Mardy Fish and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round should be a classic.

The picks improved to 15-9 for the last 7 days and hopefully that trend can continue.

Day 7 Picks:

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games vs David Nalbandian: David Nalbandian was one of the few players that would give both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal fits when he played them a few seasons ago, but he is clearly not the same player and I expect Nadal to roll.

The head to head is 2-2, with Nadal winning the last 2 matches including a comfortable win in Miami last season.

Nalbandian can push Nadal for a set, but his losses to Andy Murray, James Blake and Stanislas Wawrinka in the last 6 weeks shows he is still far short of matching it with the top 4 where he is in his career.

I expect Nadal to win 6-4, 6-2, 6-2


David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Ferrer was my tip to come through this Quarter of the draw and I expect he will be far too good for the awkward Florian Mayer tonight.

Mayer had lost his only 2 matches on the US hard courts this Summer before coming through the first 2 Rounds here, but he has been very fortunate with the draw and now faces a battle hardened Ferrer who beat Igor Andreev and James Blake.

Ferrer leads the head to head 3-2, winning their last 3 matches and he has not lost a set in those including a destruction here at the US Open in 2007.

I expect Ferrer's consistency to break down Mayer, and come through with a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win.


Andy Roddick - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau: I think Julien Benneteau has been overestimated in this match due to his excellent run at the Winston Salem Open last week, but that amount of tennis could catch up with him against Andy Roddick.

Roddick has looked in decent, if not spectacular, form in the tournament and his 3 wins last week at the Winston Salem Open will have gotten him in some shape. His serve will cause Benneteau problems and put the Frenchman under pressure on his own service games.

Roddick leads the head to head 3-1 but they have not played one another since 2008. In that time, I think Benneteau has regressed as a player and I expect the American to continue going forward.

I fancy a Roddick 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win


Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Both women have done very well to come through the draw to this 4th Round encounter, but it is Sam Stosur who has been showing better form over the last 6 weeks and I expect she will be too good for her Russian opponent tonight.

Stosur had a hard time against Nadia Petrova in the last Round due to the heavy hitting nature of her opponent, but Kirilenko is less likely to bludgeon her off court.

Stosur's serve should be the difference between the two players and I think she will increase her head to head advantage to 4-2 tonight.

I expect the Australian will come through 6-3, 6-4.


Vera Zvonareva vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has been in wonderful form over the last 2 weeks as she won a tournament in Dallas and has made easy progress through the draw here at Flushing Meadows, but I feel her run will come to an end against Vera Zvonareva.

Zvonareva enjoys playing on the hard courts and has also been in decent form of late. She also has won all 3 previous meetings with Lisicki, including in San Diego recently.

I expect the match will go 3 sets, as have all their previous meetings, but I think last year's Runner Up will still be standing at the end of a titanic battle.


Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3-1 in sets vs Gilles Simon: This is definitely going to be a closer match than some people may imagine because Gilles Simon's style of play gives Juan Martin Del Potro fits.

Just take a look at their head to head record- Simon won the first meeting in 3 sets in New Haven, Del Potro won in 5 here at the US Open in 2008 and then won in straight sets at Wimbledon in June (7-6, 7-6, 7-5) in a match that could easily have gone a lot longer.

The difference in the match will come down to the fact Del Potro gets plenty more free points on his serve, because I think Simon can hang around in rallies, and so I do expect the Argentine to get through.

I just wouldn't be that surprised if Simon manages to take a set off of him on the way as Del Potro wins 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4.


Andy Murray to win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: These two players last met at Wimbledon in June in what was a routine straight sets win for Andy Murray but that was at a time when Feliciano Lopez was shattered after a long run in the tournament.

The Spaniard has been serving well in the tournament so far and usually plays some solid stuff on the hard courts with a big serve and good volleying skills.

He has only taken 1 set in 5 meetings against Andy Murray, whose strong returning game makes life a little awkward for Lopez, but I see him picking up his 2nd tonight as the British Number 1 has not been serving as well as he can.

I think the match will be close for 2 sets, which will be split between the players, before Murray's superior returning begins to tell on Lopez and he comes through 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 4.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)




US OPEN UPDATE: 15-9, + 13.29 Units

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