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Monday, 12 September 2011

US Open Men's Final Pick

The first thing I will say is I am still not quite over the shock of seeing Sam Stosur dismantle Serena Williams yesterday in the Women's Final.

Every time you would think Williams would come back she wouldn't and it was far easier than anyone could have possibly imagined.

My thoughts on the controversial incident at the beginning of set 2 is that the umpire could have used her discretion and called a 'let' on the point where Serena screamed before the point was technically won- Stosur was not going to get back to the shot, but I did remark BEFORE the point penalty that Williams should not be doing that.

While the rules state such an incident should see the point awarded to the opponent, in this case Stosur, I think the umpire could have given Williams a warning not to do it again and replayed the point rather than the way she handled it.

That is not to condone how Serena reacted when given a code violation in the next game, nor when she sent out a torrent of abuse at the changeover.

A big factor that may have been overlooked in the Final was the late nature of Serena's match the day before- Stosur had actually finished her Semi Final before Williams had even taken to the court and that may have been another reason why Williams underperformed.

That is not to take anything away from Stosur who played the best match of her career- now it will be interesting to see how she handles the next Grand Slam she plays after seeing how Petra Kvitova and Na Li have struggled since winning their first majors... Oh, and Stosur's next Grand Slam will be at home at the Australian Open, so no expectations then!

The Men's Final takes place today, weather permitting, and I think Novak Djokovic is rightly the favourite to come through. He has had Nadal's number this season, including on the Spaniard's favoured clay courts and it is hard to see how things can change here.

The fact Djokovic took 5 sets to see off Federer should be less of an issue than last year as it was not the gruelling match of 12 months ago, as well as the fact Djokovic managed to play his Semi Final first. Nadal may have won in 4 sets, but his match with Andy Murray also went a long time so fatigue should not play an issue.

The problem for Nadal is the pace and power Djokovic has- he can hit through the World Number 2 and also has incredible defensive skills.

The other key is Djokovic can handle the heavy top spin shots Nadal favours and I can only see the Serb winning his 3rd major of the season while reaffirming his Number 1 World Ranking.

Nadal is a battler, and I can see him taking a set, so I will have a small interest in Djokovic coming through 3-1 in sets.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

US OPEN UPDATE: 26-18, + 24.03 Units

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