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Friday, 9 September 2011

US Open Day 12 Picks (Men's Quarter Finals)

The schedule has been changed by the organisers of the tournament in a manner they feel will best give all the remaining competitors a chance to win the prize.

The bottom half of the Men's draw is playing catch up, and it will still mean playing 3 matches in 3 days if they are to get through to the Final, which has been moved until Monday.

While the schedule change looks reasonable, they have given their sponsors and TV companies a Super Super Saturday as all 4 Semi Finals are scheduled to go on one after the other.

The two Men's Semi Finals take place in the afternoon and the Women have been given the night session to themselves, although personally I would have had the matches start at noon with the Women on first followed by one Men's match and then the last Semi Final played not before 7pm for a night game.

The Women's Final takes place on Sunday and the Men's, as I mentioned, is moved to Monday.

On to the Picks for the final two Quarter Finals:

Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs John Isner: This looks like a dangerous pick considering the way John Isner can serve, but I have a feeling the big man is just about running on fumes and he will be grinded down by Murray and put away in a similar fashion to Australia in 2010.

Isner was struggling against Gilles Simon yesterday, being broken NINE times, and will little rest between matches, I think he is going to struggle big time against a player that will force him to hit a lot of tennis balls.

Murray is also one of the best returners on the tour so we can expect him to start getting a lot of serves back and I think he will then be able to expose the lack of real movement in Isner and come away with a fairly routine win.

Murray has won his 2 previous meetings with Isner, winning all 5 sets- he beat Isner for the loss of just 11 games in Australia in 2010 and also won 6-4, 6-2 at the Hopman Cup earlier this season against the big serving American.

The British Number 1 will not want to spend unnecessary time on court so I expect him to be fully focused. He will break Isner's belief in a tight first set, before coming away with a 7-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.

Rafael Nadal to win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: Andy Roddick played very well in the sets I saw against David Ferrer yesterday, but this is an altogether different test for a player that has not been in the best of form this season.

Rafael Nadal is clearly keen to keep his time on court to a minimum if his performance in destroying Gilles Muller yesterday is anything to go by. However, he has thrown in a few erratic service games and that may be enough for Roddick to sneak a set, although I can't see him having any more success than that.

Nadal leads 6-3 in the head to head, and has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. However, they have split their last 2 meetings in Miami and at the O2 in London, with both matches going the full distance.

The Spaniard has been fortunate not to drop a set so far at this years US Open, with Gilles Muller, David Nalbandian and Andrey Golubev all having chances to do so. I think Roddick's mental belief will allow him to break that run, but I can't see him going any further as he falls 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

US OPEN UPDATE: 26-16, + 27.03 Units

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