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Tuesday, 6 September 2011

US Open Day 9 Picks

The rain did finally begin falling yesterday, only half an hour after Roger Federer managed to book his place in the Quarter Final, and today's play looks to be affected completely.

According to reports, there will be steady rain the entire day and I think the tournament is in a bit of bother now as the forecast for the next few days does not exactly make me confident.

We have to expect a few stop-start matches with showers expected from tomorrow afternoon all the way through till Sunday.

The conditions could be a little reminiscent of the tournament last year as the wind was picking up too and it might be a physical examination of players, particularly the Men in the bottom half of the draw who are still in the 4th Round.

These are my Day 9 Picks, but don't be surprised if none of them are finished today:

Andy Murray - 8.5 games vs Donald Young: The flashy Donald Young has finally made a real impact at this level, after many years of expectations, but I think he is in for a tough time against Andy Murray, even though he beat the Brit at Indian Wells earlier this year.

Murray played brilliantly against Feliciano Lopez in the last Round and I expect he will end up frustrating Young on his way through to a straight sets win.

Young has the shot making ability to push Murray close for a set, but it is the World Number 4 that has the edge in almost all departments and I expect him to show that.

Murray may be pushed to a 6-4 first set win, but I expect him to get a couple of breaks in the last two sets and come through 6-2, 6-3 to cover the spread.


John Isner vs Gilles Simon: John Isner has enjoyed a wonderful Summer that will see him finally going back up the Rankings. There is no doubt he enjoys the American hard courts the best and I think the additional rest he is likely to get today will serve him well after playing a lot of tennis over the last 6 weeks.

Isner won in Winston Salem the week before the Open began, and he is likely to get plenty more free points on his own serve.

Simon was brilliant in dispatching Juan Martin Del Potro in the last Round, and he will be used to the fact that many serves he will be facing are unreturned, but he will feel confident he can at least trouble Isner.

However, the Frenchman is always liable to throwing in a bad service game in sets and that could cost him a Quarter Final place here as Isner is a wonderful front runner.

Simon is also only 11-12 in tie breaks this season, even including the 2 he won against Del Potro, and Isner may be able to punish him in those considering he is 32-19 in tie breakers this year.

I think the match could go 5 sets, but I think Isner's serve, coupled with the additional rest for his body, will be the last American standing at this years Open.


David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: This is scheduled to be the first night game and so the atmosphere will be electric IF the weather decides to make a drastic move away from Flushing Meadows.

David Ferrer has far too much consistency for Andy Roddick these days, and it is indicative from the head to head which is led by the Spaniard 5-3. In fact, he has won 4 of the last 5 matches between the players and Ferrer will not feel more pressure from the crowd than when he knocked off Roddick in straight sets in Austin, Texas in July.

Roddick has the edge in terms of serve, but Ferrer is the better returner, is definitely better off the ground on both wings and is faster. The Spaniard is super-consistent and I think he will keep the pressure on Roddick throughout the match.

I think Roddick is capable of pushing the match to 4 sets if he is serving well, especially considering Ferrer can sometimes throw in a poor service game, but once the dust settles, I think Ferrer will have come through, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.


Samantha Stosur vs Vera Zvonareva: I feel like I am always tipping Sam Stosur to win her matches, mainly because the layers continuously underestimate the gritty Australian, and the fact she keeps winning the picks for me.

Vera Zvonareva was Runner Up here last season, and she is favoured by the layers, but the fact is she is 7-2 down in the head to head with Stosur, losing the last SEVEN meetings.

Stosur has come back from a set down in her 2 wins over Zvonareva this season, and it just seems the added spin she plays with bamboozles the Russian.

I think Stosur is set as a bigger underdog due to the time she has spent on court, but she has shown some really good mental strength to overcome losing the 2nd set in her last 2 matches, and that is a department she holds a real edge over Zvonareva.

It could go 3 again between these two players, but the added rest Stosur is likely to get thanks to the weather could see the Aussie fighting through.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
John Isner @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Sam Stosur @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)


US OPEN UPDATE: 22-14, + 20.83 Units

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