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Friday, 2 September 2011

US Open Day 5 Picks

Day 4 was a really good day for me in all departments as all 4 picks came in as winners and Serena Williams and Roger Federer made serene progress through to the 3rd Round.

The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.

Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:

Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.

Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.

Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.

If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.

Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.

Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.

The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.

Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.

Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.

Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.

I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.

I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.

David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.

Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.

I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.

MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units

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