Group A was concluded last night and we already know one of the Semi Final matches as Novak Djokovic will be taking on Stanislas Wawrinka on Sunday and hopefully they can end the season with a match to rival the one they played in one of the first tournaments of the season at the Australian Open.
We also know Rafael Nadal will take on the winner of the Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer match which will be played on Saturday afternoon and that is obviously the match that will garner most of the headlines as the season has just three days left to go (outside of the Davis Cup Final which is played next week).
Roger Federer win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: The last four matches between Juan Martin Del Potro nd Roger Federer have all come on an indoor hard court and it was Federer who had to snap a 3 match losing run against the Argentinian with a win in Paris last week.
All of the matches have had to be decided by a final set and there is every chance that this will be another match that goes the distance as both players can get a little hot at time and run through and take a set.
Both players can sometimes also lose their way and throw in a poor game which will give their opponent a chance and I do believe that this is going to be a quality match with twists and turns.
Del Potro has won both matches played at the World Tour Finals in London, but I do think Federer has looked in a better place physically of the two players and I think he can find a way to just get the better of the big man for the second time in two weeks. Federer has looked vulnerable though so it would be a real surprise to me if he was to win this one in straight sets and a small interest on the 17 time Grand Slam Champion winning this in 3 sets is the call.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This is a dead rubber for both men, but I think Novak Djokovic will be the more motivated as he will want to get this done with minimal fuss to keep his winning run intact and also not to waste too much energy for the Semi Final and potential Final in the next couple of days.
Djokovic has the return game to give Gasquet fits and he defends well enough to really take advantage of some of the movement issues that the Frenchman displays at times on the court.
It is no surprise that Djokovic has dominated the head to head with Gasquet as his game matches up so well against Gasquet's. With the added issue of this being the last game of the season for Gasquet, there is every chance that he could fall away in the second set after losing a close one in the first and I do believe the World Number 2 gets ready for the Semi Final in style.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer win 2-1 @ 4.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 5-5, + 4.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 27.88% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Group Stages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Group Stages. Show all posts
Saturday, 9 November 2013
Friday, 8 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks 2013 (November 8th)
The 2013 tennis season is drawing to a close and we now have two players already in the Semi Final after Novak Djokovic joined Rafael Nadal in the last four on Thursday evening. Djokovic has certainly looked the most impressive player so far and has won Group B, so will know exactly who he will face in the Semi Final on Sunday after the Friday matches are completed.
Group A is still up in the air compared with B as there are a number of different scenarios that could determine positions in the section. As far as I am aware, Stanislas Wawrinka cannot win the Group, but there is a situation where Tomas Berdych can win the Group and Rafael Nadal would finish second if all the players finish with the same number of wins on Friday evening.
The only thing we know for sure is that David Ferrer has been knocked out after a long season finally seemed to catch up with him physically and he can already begin thinking about where he wants to go on holiday to try and recharge for a long season. As an admirer of the way Ferrer has approached his career on the Tour, I don't want to write off the Spaniard too early, but I think he could be one of the players that will really have to battle to get back to this tournament in London in twelve months time.
Ferrer has definitely looked like he has slowed down during the latter part of 2013 (ever since the French Open Final I would say) and I am not sure if that was down to him carrying an injury or something more permanent for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I would love to be wrong, but I can see Ferrer slipping down the Rankings in 2014 and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he was to miss the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
The other talking point of the week so far was surrounding the ban that was given to Victor Troicki for missing a drugs test- it has been announced this week that the ban has been reduced to 12 months from the initial 18 months, but that hasn't gone down well with his friend Novak Djokovic. The World Number 2 was adamant that Troicki hadn't done anything wrong and that the blame likes with the Control Officer that had allegedly told Troicki he could skip the test as he was unwell and offer a sample the next day, which was passed.
Djokovic was very upset with his friend having to miss a year, especially after he was also barred from being in the stadium for a Davis Cup match in September, but Roger Federer wasn't as sympathetic to the situation when talking about it after his win over Richard Gasquet. For Federer it was a much more black and white situation, but it will be interesting how that goes down in the Djokovic camp.
There has been a feeling of tension between those two players in the past, while other players have said in a roundabout way that Federer doesn't help with matters concerning the players as much as someone of his high-profile should. Even Rafael Nadal hinted as such back at the Australian Open in 2012 and this Troicki discussion is the not the first time Federer has disagreed with the two leading players on the men's Tour.
The schedule, the blue clay in Madrid last year and even whether the World Tour Finals should be moved from London at the end of the current contract has seen Federer and Nadal/Djokovic offer differing views and I do wonder if there is more tension there than they openly admit. In saying that, Federer wins a lot of awards from his peers so who knows?!!
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: David Ferrer may have the lead in the head to head between these players, but it was Stanislas Wawrinka that won their most recent match and it is also the Swiss man who has looked more comfortable this week.
I really respect David Ferrer, but he has looked physically spent in his two matches so far and I think it is going to be tough for him to find the level of motivation to turn things around and win this match as he is out of the tournament no matter what happens.
Wawrinka has been serving well for most of the week and he is clearly relishing being at the World Tour Finals for the first time. He pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in the second match he played this week, but the critical match was the win over Tomas Berdych and I think he would be expecting Nadal to beat the Czech player again.
Usually I would consider this a tough match for Wawrinka as Ferrer has the game to extract errors, but it is the former that has played better so far and I expect him to do enough behind his own serve to keep the pressure on the Spaniard. While Ferrer may want to put in a big effort, it is a big ask for him to be ready physically for this match and I think Wawrinka will come through 64, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Rafael Nadal will win this Group as long as he wins one set in the match, but he has gotten the better of Tomas Berdych ever since their infamous match in Madrid, including once here in London at the World Tour Finals.
I don't believe Nadal is a player that is going to put in a poor effort, or just concentrate on winning one set in this match, although Tomas Berdych is certainly capable of posing his own problems for Nadal to figure out.
However, the big man can be guilty of overplaying the situation when it comes to break points or big moments in matches and the 11 sets in a row he has lost to Nadal doesn't bode well for his chances of qualifying for the Semi Finals. Berdych could be in a position where he has already qualified though if David Ferrer can surprise Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match of the day, but I can't see that coming if I am honest and that means he will have to win this match.
With that pressure on him, I can see Berdych perhaps being overly aggressive and making life difficult for himself in this one and that should play into Nadal's hands. The World Number 1 will have to serve better than he did against Wawrinka on Wednesday, but he has gotten the better of Berdych by proving to be the tougher player mentally and I do think that makes a difference again.
If Berdych loses a close, hard fought first set, it may be too much for him to come back and I think Nadal can come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)
Group A is still up in the air compared with B as there are a number of different scenarios that could determine positions in the section. As far as I am aware, Stanislas Wawrinka cannot win the Group, but there is a situation where Tomas Berdych can win the Group and Rafael Nadal would finish second if all the players finish with the same number of wins on Friday evening.
The only thing we know for sure is that David Ferrer has been knocked out after a long season finally seemed to catch up with him physically and he can already begin thinking about where he wants to go on holiday to try and recharge for a long season. As an admirer of the way Ferrer has approached his career on the Tour, I don't want to write off the Spaniard too early, but I think he could be one of the players that will really have to battle to get back to this tournament in London in twelve months time.
Ferrer has definitely looked like he has slowed down during the latter part of 2013 (ever since the French Open Final I would say) and I am not sure if that was down to him carrying an injury or something more permanent for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I would love to be wrong, but I can see Ferrer slipping down the Rankings in 2014 and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he was to miss the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
The other talking point of the week so far was surrounding the ban that was given to Victor Troicki for missing a drugs test- it has been announced this week that the ban has been reduced to 12 months from the initial 18 months, but that hasn't gone down well with his friend Novak Djokovic. The World Number 2 was adamant that Troicki hadn't done anything wrong and that the blame likes with the Control Officer that had allegedly told Troicki he could skip the test as he was unwell and offer a sample the next day, which was passed.
Djokovic was very upset with his friend having to miss a year, especially after he was also barred from being in the stadium for a Davis Cup match in September, but Roger Federer wasn't as sympathetic to the situation when talking about it after his win over Richard Gasquet. For Federer it was a much more black and white situation, but it will be interesting how that goes down in the Djokovic camp.
There has been a feeling of tension between those two players in the past, while other players have said in a roundabout way that Federer doesn't help with matters concerning the players as much as someone of his high-profile should. Even Rafael Nadal hinted as such back at the Australian Open in 2012 and this Troicki discussion is the not the first time Federer has disagreed with the two leading players on the men's Tour.
The schedule, the blue clay in Madrid last year and even whether the World Tour Finals should be moved from London at the end of the current contract has seen Federer and Nadal/Djokovic offer differing views and I do wonder if there is more tension there than they openly admit. In saying that, Federer wins a lot of awards from his peers so who knows?!!
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: David Ferrer may have the lead in the head to head between these players, but it was Stanislas Wawrinka that won their most recent match and it is also the Swiss man who has looked more comfortable this week.
I really respect David Ferrer, but he has looked physically spent in his two matches so far and I think it is going to be tough for him to find the level of motivation to turn things around and win this match as he is out of the tournament no matter what happens.
Wawrinka has been serving well for most of the week and he is clearly relishing being at the World Tour Finals for the first time. He pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in the second match he played this week, but the critical match was the win over Tomas Berdych and I think he would be expecting Nadal to beat the Czech player again.
Usually I would consider this a tough match for Wawrinka as Ferrer has the game to extract errors, but it is the former that has played better so far and I expect him to do enough behind his own serve to keep the pressure on the Spaniard. While Ferrer may want to put in a big effort, it is a big ask for him to be ready physically for this match and I think Wawrinka will come through 64, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Rafael Nadal will win this Group as long as he wins one set in the match, but he has gotten the better of Tomas Berdych ever since their infamous match in Madrid, including once here in London at the World Tour Finals.
I don't believe Nadal is a player that is going to put in a poor effort, or just concentrate on winning one set in this match, although Tomas Berdych is certainly capable of posing his own problems for Nadal to figure out.
However, the big man can be guilty of overplaying the situation when it comes to break points or big moments in matches and the 11 sets in a row he has lost to Nadal doesn't bode well for his chances of qualifying for the Semi Finals. Berdych could be in a position where he has already qualified though if David Ferrer can surprise Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match of the day, but I can't see that coming if I am honest and that means he will have to win this match.
With that pressure on him, I can see Berdych perhaps being overly aggressive and making life difficult for himself in this one and that should play into Nadal's hands. The World Number 1 will have to serve better than he did against Wawrinka on Wednesday, but he has gotten the better of Berdych by proving to be the tougher player mentally and I do think that makes a difference again.
If Berdych loses a close, hard fought first set, it may be too much for him to come back and I think Nadal can come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)
Thursday, 7 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2013 (November 7th)
It has been a wonderful season for Rafael Nadal and all of his fans and it was confirmed on Wednesday that he will finish the year as the World Number 1... That is a remarkable achievement for a player that had missed all the time on the Tour between Wimbledon 2012 and February 2013, but he has played at an extremely high level all season.
There will be a lot of points for him to defend after the Australian Open, but he should be able to keep clear of Novak Djokovic if Nadal can continue his dominance on the clay courts.
I have to credit Djokovic for pushing Nadal all the way considering he has won one Grand Slam and has lost a lot of big matches including the US Open Final. Since then, the Serb has been on a hot streak and there is a feeling that he has felt more comfortable in the role of having someone to chase in the Rankings rather than being closed down as he was by Nadal for much of the season.
The Australian Open has been Djokovic's domain over the last few years and he will be looking to end this week on a high by winning the tournament for the second year in a row to really set a marker down for next season . He will then go into Melbourne Park as the favourite and he might start eating into the Nadal points lead after that with confidence that he could perhaps take the French Open crown that he has set his heart on.
With Andy Murray to return to the mix and the likes of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro hoping to have big years, men's tennis continues to look like it is in a golden period moving through to 2014.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Group B was clearly going to be a tough section for Roger Federer to negotiate with both Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro to face before the Semi Finals and he is already in a 'must win' situation.
Federer would have been vastly disappointed he didn't complete the win over Novak Djokovic in the first round of matches considering he won the second set and seemed to have all the momentum on his side. That is the second time in under a week that he was beaten by Djokovic despite looking like he was in a position to win the match.
The question now becomes how will he react to losing twice to the World Number 2 in quick succession, but he is playing an opponent that might not have the mental strength to take out Federer. Richard Gasquet has won 2 of his 12 matches against Federer, but he too is off a vastly disappointing defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro and it will be interesting to see his reaction to that defeat.
I have no doubt that this season is as vulnerable as Federer has looked on a tennis court since before he won his first Grand Slam title in 2003, but I still think he has enough in the tank to see off Gasquet. Federer has to find a better edge between his aggression and getting into rallies, but I believe he will have the more chances to break serve and I do think he can set up a clash with Juan Martin Del Potro that will determine who makes it through to the Semi Finals.
Federer has won the two previous matches against Gasquet on an indoor hard court without dropping a set and I think he can do something similar in this one. I look for him to come through 64, 64 and earn the cover.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Novak Djokovic looked a little lethargic in the second set of his win over Roger Federer, but he found reserves of strength to keep his winning run intact since his loss in the US Open Final.
He might need the same reserves to see off one of the best indoor hard court players on the Tour in Juan Martin Del Potro, but there were also times in his win over Richard Gasquet that the big man looked a little tired and slow.
You can't really tell from the body language as to how Del Potro is really feeling, while these two have had some real close matches in recent months. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see another three setter between two players that could very easily be contesting the Final on Monday and I am expecting to see a quality match as both have had at least a couple of days to rest between matches.
I just have a feeling that Djokovic is playing with a lot of belief that he won't lose at the moment and that might be the difference between the two players. Djokovic is the better returner of serve and I can see that being the main reason he is able to come through, but it would be no surprise to me if the first two sets are shared with Del Potro more than capable of stealing a break of serve and holding on to take a set.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-4, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
There will be a lot of points for him to defend after the Australian Open, but he should be able to keep clear of Novak Djokovic if Nadal can continue his dominance on the clay courts.
I have to credit Djokovic for pushing Nadal all the way considering he has won one Grand Slam and has lost a lot of big matches including the US Open Final. Since then, the Serb has been on a hot streak and there is a feeling that he has felt more comfortable in the role of having someone to chase in the Rankings rather than being closed down as he was by Nadal for much of the season.
The Australian Open has been Djokovic's domain over the last few years and he will be looking to end this week on a high by winning the tournament for the second year in a row to really set a marker down for next season . He will then go into Melbourne Park as the favourite and he might start eating into the Nadal points lead after that with confidence that he could perhaps take the French Open crown that he has set his heart on.
With Andy Murray to return to the mix and the likes of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro hoping to have big years, men's tennis continues to look like it is in a golden period moving through to 2014.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Group B was clearly going to be a tough section for Roger Federer to negotiate with both Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro to face before the Semi Finals and he is already in a 'must win' situation.
Federer would have been vastly disappointed he didn't complete the win over Novak Djokovic in the first round of matches considering he won the second set and seemed to have all the momentum on his side. That is the second time in under a week that he was beaten by Djokovic despite looking like he was in a position to win the match.
The question now becomes how will he react to losing twice to the World Number 2 in quick succession, but he is playing an opponent that might not have the mental strength to take out Federer. Richard Gasquet has won 2 of his 12 matches against Federer, but he too is off a vastly disappointing defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro and it will be interesting to see his reaction to that defeat.
I have no doubt that this season is as vulnerable as Federer has looked on a tennis court since before he won his first Grand Slam title in 2003, but I still think he has enough in the tank to see off Gasquet. Federer has to find a better edge between his aggression and getting into rallies, but I believe he will have the more chances to break serve and I do think he can set up a clash with Juan Martin Del Potro that will determine who makes it through to the Semi Finals.
Federer has won the two previous matches against Gasquet on an indoor hard court without dropping a set and I think he can do something similar in this one. I look for him to come through 64, 64 and earn the cover.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Novak Djokovic looked a little lethargic in the second set of his win over Roger Federer, but he found reserves of strength to keep his winning run intact since his loss in the US Open Final.
He might need the same reserves to see off one of the best indoor hard court players on the Tour in Juan Martin Del Potro, but there were also times in his win over Richard Gasquet that the big man looked a little tired and slow.
You can't really tell from the body language as to how Del Potro is really feeling, while these two have had some real close matches in recent months. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see another three setter between two players that could very easily be contesting the Final on Monday and I am expecting to see a quality match as both have had at least a couple of days to rest between matches.
I just have a feeling that Djokovic is playing with a lot of belief that he won't lose at the moment and that might be the difference between the two players. Djokovic is the better returner of serve and I can see that being the main reason he is able to come through, but it would be no surprise to me if the first two sets are shared with Del Potro more than capable of stealing a break of serve and holding on to take a set.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-4, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Wednesday, 6 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks 2013 (November 6th)
The first round robin matches are in the books at the World Tour Finals, but it is a quick turnaround for Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer who won't have a day of rest between matches as their opponents will.
It will be interesting to see if that gives Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych a chance to overcome opponents that have dominated the head to head. I do think one of the players has a chance to win their match, but the other could go the same way as previous matches have ended.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 game v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Tomas Berdych has given him a great platform to go through to the Semi Finals in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals, but this could be a tough second match for him.
I wasn't sure if Rafael Nadal was feeling the strain of a long season after his performance in Paris last week, but he dominated his first match against David Ferrer, albeit against a tired opponent.
The match up is a good one for Nadal simply because his best shot is going into Wawrinka's exceptional one-handed backhand... No matter how well Wawrinka plays that shot, Nadal's spin and power certainly pushes the Swiss man to the back of the court and it is a very difficult place to consistently win points against someone like the Spaniard.
Nadal's backhand is also a little more solid than Wawrinka's forehand and this match will come down to whether Wawrinka can serve well enough to keep himself in control of the points on that side of the court.
There is a chance that Wawrinka could also decide to keep some energy in reserve if he loses the first set in this match and that could give Nadal the chance to run away with the second, especially as Nadal is not the kind of player that slackens off on any point.
Wawrinka may keep this close if he serves very well, but I think Nadal eventually comes through 64, 62.
Tomas Berdych v David Ferrer: David Ferrer has won 8 of the 11 matches against Tomas Berdych including 3 out of 4 matches on an indoor hard court. He beat Berdych from a set down in Paris last week, but Berdych can point to the fact that he has won their sole match at this tournament a couple of years ago.
Ferrer looked knackered mentally and physically in his loss to Rafael Nadal and made far too many mistakes in that match, but he will definitely make this closer if he can just tone those downs. Some of the misses were very close to the lines so it won't take a lot of adjustments for him to win those points.
He does match up well with Berdych as he can diffuse the big weapons that the Czech player brings to the court, but I don't know how he is feeling physically after a long season which has been back loaded somewhat as he has played the most matches of the players in London since the US Open.
Berdych himself will think he has to be a little more efficient on break point chances if he is going to win this match after failing to break Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match here. The match in Paris and the match in London a couple of years ago were both close and it will take a point here and there to separate the players in my opinion.
I just have this feeling that Ferrer doesn't have a lot left in the tank and if Berdych can at least split the first two sets, he might be able to outlast a player that has been known for his stamina reserves but who might have left too much on the court in Paris last week.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 1-3, - 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, - 13.4% Yield)
It will be interesting to see if that gives Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych a chance to overcome opponents that have dominated the head to head. I do think one of the players has a chance to win their match, but the other could go the same way as previous matches have ended.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 game v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Tomas Berdych has given him a great platform to go through to the Semi Finals in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals, but this could be a tough second match for him.
I wasn't sure if Rafael Nadal was feeling the strain of a long season after his performance in Paris last week, but he dominated his first match against David Ferrer, albeit against a tired opponent.
The match up is a good one for Nadal simply because his best shot is going into Wawrinka's exceptional one-handed backhand... No matter how well Wawrinka plays that shot, Nadal's spin and power certainly pushes the Swiss man to the back of the court and it is a very difficult place to consistently win points against someone like the Spaniard.
Nadal's backhand is also a little more solid than Wawrinka's forehand and this match will come down to whether Wawrinka can serve well enough to keep himself in control of the points on that side of the court.
There is a chance that Wawrinka could also decide to keep some energy in reserve if he loses the first set in this match and that could give Nadal the chance to run away with the second, especially as Nadal is not the kind of player that slackens off on any point.
Wawrinka may keep this close if he serves very well, but I think Nadal eventually comes through 64, 62.
Tomas Berdych v David Ferrer: David Ferrer has won 8 of the 11 matches against Tomas Berdych including 3 out of 4 matches on an indoor hard court. He beat Berdych from a set down in Paris last week, but Berdych can point to the fact that he has won their sole match at this tournament a couple of years ago.
Ferrer looked knackered mentally and physically in his loss to Rafael Nadal and made far too many mistakes in that match, but he will definitely make this closer if he can just tone those downs. Some of the misses were very close to the lines so it won't take a lot of adjustments for him to win those points.
He does match up well with Berdych as he can diffuse the big weapons that the Czech player brings to the court, but I don't know how he is feeling physically after a long season which has been back loaded somewhat as he has played the most matches of the players in London since the US Open.
Berdych himself will think he has to be a little more efficient on break point chances if he is going to win this match after failing to break Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match here. The match in Paris and the match in London a couple of years ago were both close and it will take a point here and there to separate the players in my opinion.
I just have this feeling that Ferrer doesn't have a lot left in the tank and if Berdych can at least split the first two sets, he might be able to outlast a player that has been known for his stamina reserves but who might have left too much on the court in Paris last week.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 1-3, - 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, - 13.4% Yield)
Tuesday, 5 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 2 Picks 2013 (November 5th)
The first day of the World Tour Finals showed how close, yet so far, the picks from the tennis Tour have been over the second half of the season.
Whether it was Tomas Berdych having all the momentum going into the final set against Stanislas Wawrinka, or Juan Martin Del Potro missing the simplest of volleys to put away Richard Gasquet in the second set, things have come really close, but not quite got over the hill.
I don't care how much research you put into a match, at the end of the day you need the element of luck that will help you either get it correct or not. That luck has certainly not been with the picks over the last four months and that has unfortunately made it a tough season all around after another positive start. Let's see if the luck returns on Tuesday as the first round of Group matches are completed with three of the biggest names in men's tennis all in action for the lucky attendees at the O2 in London.
Those going to the tournament should enjoy it while they can after both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic suggested London have had the World Tour Finals for long enough and that the event should be moved in 2015. The feeling is that they can promote the sport better in places the Tour doesn't frequent, for example areas of South America where the big players usually won't participate.
For example, the South American clay court swing after the Australian Open is generally ignored by the top, top players who will go to Rotterdam and Dubai instead, so seeing the Tour Finals move to Argentina (where Juan Martin Del Potro would be a big draw) or Brazil could be the next potential move.
The O2 will certainly very much like to keep the event, but when two of the biggest names (certainly will be in 2015 as we can assume Roger Federer won't be the force he is now) suggest it is time for a move, the ATP Tour will sit up and listen.
Rafael Nadal win 2-1 v David Ferrer: The first two matches in the O2 have both gone the distance and I have a feeling this will be the third in a row to end that way, although I do think Rafael Nadal can get a bit of revenge for his Semi Final defeat by David Ferrer last week in Paris.
That match saw Ferrer take advantage of a little bit of tiredness that Nadal displayed, while the motivation for the Spanish number 2 was definitely higher than it was for Nadal. With so many points to defend from last season, Ferrer was highly motivated on Saturday, but he may not have had enough time to recover from the Sunday Final and now playing this match on Tuesday afternoon.
This time, Nadal has the higher motivation with the chance to secure the World Number 1 Ranking with a couple of wins here and moving through to the Semi Finals. He will see Ferrer as possibly the biggest obstacle for the chance to get out of this Group and I just feel the extra day off will prove critical for Nadal after a long season.
Indoor hard courts are not Nadal's favourite surface and that is shown by his relatively poor record at the World Tour Finals- I don't think he will win the tournament this week, but I think he can reverse the result from last week.
I would be extremely surprised if it is an easy win though as Ferrer has made the majority of their matches this season competitive, taking a set in 3 of their 5 matches. He won last week to give him the confidence he can do the same this time around, but I think Nadal comes through after 2 and a half hours in three tough sets.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Roger Federer: I have to say that Roger Federer looked about as good as he has in months when he pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in Paris last week and there might also be a feeling that the 17 time Grand Slam Champion missed his chance to end the Serb's current winning streak.
Federer was a set and a break up against Djokovic who looked flat for much of the first half of that match, but it was the latter that turned things around and then went on to win the Paris Masters. How much that has taken out of him is yet to be known, but I do think Djokovic can back up his win over Federer and take the points fro this opening match.
It says a lot more about Federer's year that last week was the first time he played Novak Djokovic this season- obviously draws can keep players apart, but Djokovic is usually around at the business end of tournaments and Federer hasn't done the same for most of the year. However, he may be in a good position to take on Djokovic after Federer admitted he is feeling at his best for the first time in months, while his opponent was playing in Paris up until Sunday.
I still think there is a mental burden to overcome for Federer who hasn't had a big win in a long time now, possibly not since this tournament last season... He might be playing well enough to take a set, but Novak Djokovic could grind him down and win this in three sets.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals 2013: 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Whether it was Tomas Berdych having all the momentum going into the final set against Stanislas Wawrinka, or Juan Martin Del Potro missing the simplest of volleys to put away Richard Gasquet in the second set, things have come really close, but not quite got over the hill.
I don't care how much research you put into a match, at the end of the day you need the element of luck that will help you either get it correct or not. That luck has certainly not been with the picks over the last four months and that has unfortunately made it a tough season all around after another positive start. Let's see if the luck returns on Tuesday as the first round of Group matches are completed with three of the biggest names in men's tennis all in action for the lucky attendees at the O2 in London.
Those going to the tournament should enjoy it while they can after both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic suggested London have had the World Tour Finals for long enough and that the event should be moved in 2015. The feeling is that they can promote the sport better in places the Tour doesn't frequent, for example areas of South America where the big players usually won't participate.
For example, the South American clay court swing after the Australian Open is generally ignored by the top, top players who will go to Rotterdam and Dubai instead, so seeing the Tour Finals move to Argentina (where Juan Martin Del Potro would be a big draw) or Brazil could be the next potential move.
The O2 will certainly very much like to keep the event, but when two of the biggest names (certainly will be in 2015 as we can assume Roger Federer won't be the force he is now) suggest it is time for a move, the ATP Tour will sit up and listen.
Rafael Nadal win 2-1 v David Ferrer: The first two matches in the O2 have both gone the distance and I have a feeling this will be the third in a row to end that way, although I do think Rafael Nadal can get a bit of revenge for his Semi Final defeat by David Ferrer last week in Paris.
That match saw Ferrer take advantage of a little bit of tiredness that Nadal displayed, while the motivation for the Spanish number 2 was definitely higher than it was for Nadal. With so many points to defend from last season, Ferrer was highly motivated on Saturday, but he may not have had enough time to recover from the Sunday Final and now playing this match on Tuesday afternoon.
This time, Nadal has the higher motivation with the chance to secure the World Number 1 Ranking with a couple of wins here and moving through to the Semi Finals. He will see Ferrer as possibly the biggest obstacle for the chance to get out of this Group and I just feel the extra day off will prove critical for Nadal after a long season.
Indoor hard courts are not Nadal's favourite surface and that is shown by his relatively poor record at the World Tour Finals- I don't think he will win the tournament this week, but I think he can reverse the result from last week.
I would be extremely surprised if it is an easy win though as Ferrer has made the majority of their matches this season competitive, taking a set in 3 of their 5 matches. He won last week to give him the confidence he can do the same this time around, but I think Nadal comes through after 2 and a half hours in three tough sets.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Roger Federer: I have to say that Roger Federer looked about as good as he has in months when he pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in Paris last week and there might also be a feeling that the 17 time Grand Slam Champion missed his chance to end the Serb's current winning streak.
Federer was a set and a break up against Djokovic who looked flat for much of the first half of that match, but it was the latter that turned things around and then went on to win the Paris Masters. How much that has taken out of him is yet to be known, but I do think Djokovic can back up his win over Federer and take the points fro this opening match.
It says a lot more about Federer's year that last week was the first time he played Novak Djokovic this season- obviously draws can keep players apart, but Djokovic is usually around at the business end of tournaments and Federer hasn't done the same for most of the year. However, he may be in a good position to take on Djokovic after Federer admitted he is feeling at his best for the first time in months, while his opponent was playing in Paris up until Sunday.
I still think there is a mental burden to overcome for Federer who hasn't had a big win in a long time now, possibly not since this tournament last season... He might be playing well enough to take a set, but Novak Djokovic could grind him down and win this in three sets.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals 2013: 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Monday, 4 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 1 Picks 2013 (November 4th)
I know a lot of British tennis fans will be disappointed that Andy Murray is not taking part at the World Tour Finals this week, but the final tournament of the 2013 season has put together a lot of big names and I think it will be a fascinating week.
Group B is the the tougher one to predict this week as it contains three players that will expect they can go all the way and win the event, while Richard Gasquet could be forgiven for seeing this as a successful season regardless of what happens on the court.
Group A is potentially problematic for Rafael Nadal, especially as he has admitted that this has been a long season, but he should be motivated to reach the Semi Finals at the very least and finish the year as the World Number 1 ahead of the new season.
I don't think Nadal will have a problem getting out of a Group where two of the players certainly have a mental block when it comes to playing the Spaniard, although Nadal will look to get a bit of revenge over David Ferrer in his opening match on Tuesday.
The scheduling has been changed a little for the opening two days than we have become accustomed to, much down to the fact that a member of each Group was playing in the Final of the Paris Masters on Sunday. I am guessing the scheduling will go back to normal on Wednesday through to the rest of the tournament, and hopefully I will get time to go down to the O2 and catch a match or two.
Tomas Berdych win 2-1 v Stanislas Wawrinka: This is a new experience for Stanislas Wawrinka and I think that is the reason that Tomas Berdych will be able to come through and win this match, although it should be remarkably close.
The two players have always been well matches with Berdych winning 5 and Wawrinka winning 7, but recent meetings have generally gone the way of the Swiss man who has won 5 of the last 6 between them.
However, the only two indoor hard court meetings in that time have been won by Berdych and I think his experience of playing at the O2 is going to be invaluable. Wawrinka has a big game that should see him take a set and I definitely favour this one to be decided by a critical third set that will put the losing player in a very tough position to qualify for the Semi Finals.
The indoor conditions do make the service action a little more comfortable for Berdych, but he has to overcome a mental barrier having lost so many recent matches to Wawrinka. Familiarity with the conditions and the arena may just prove to be the biggest difference in a match where both men should have their chances to win it. I just think Berdych is the more comfortable indoor player and will show that in three tough sets.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This isn't a great match up for Richard Gasquet who can be overpowered by some of the best players on the Tour and Juan Martin Del Potro is also one of the best indoor players in the World at this moment.
There were signs of tiredness in Del Potro last week, but he has had a few days off and I think he can take advantage of Gasquet who may just be glad that he finally got back to the World Tour Finals.
Del Potro has also dominated his matches with Gasquet and I think the big man should be able to dominate this match behind his power. I also think the Frenchman can be guilty of falling apart at times and I like Del Potro to win 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Group B is the the tougher one to predict this week as it contains three players that will expect they can go all the way and win the event, while Richard Gasquet could be forgiven for seeing this as a successful season regardless of what happens on the court.
Group A is potentially problematic for Rafael Nadal, especially as he has admitted that this has been a long season, but he should be motivated to reach the Semi Finals at the very least and finish the year as the World Number 1 ahead of the new season.
I don't think Nadal will have a problem getting out of a Group where two of the players certainly have a mental block when it comes to playing the Spaniard, although Nadal will look to get a bit of revenge over David Ferrer in his opening match on Tuesday.
The scheduling has been changed a little for the opening two days than we have become accustomed to, much down to the fact that a member of each Group was playing in the Final of the Paris Masters on Sunday. I am guessing the scheduling will go back to normal on Wednesday through to the rest of the tournament, and hopefully I will get time to go down to the O2 and catch a match or two.
Tomas Berdych win 2-1 v Stanislas Wawrinka: This is a new experience for Stanislas Wawrinka and I think that is the reason that Tomas Berdych will be able to come through and win this match, although it should be remarkably close.
The two players have always been well matches with Berdych winning 5 and Wawrinka winning 7, but recent meetings have generally gone the way of the Swiss man who has won 5 of the last 6 between them.
However, the only two indoor hard court meetings in that time have been won by Berdych and I think his experience of playing at the O2 is going to be invaluable. Wawrinka has a big game that should see him take a set and I definitely favour this one to be decided by a critical third set that will put the losing player in a very tough position to qualify for the Semi Finals.
The indoor conditions do make the service action a little more comfortable for Berdych, but he has to overcome a mental barrier having lost so many recent matches to Wawrinka. Familiarity with the conditions and the arena may just prove to be the biggest difference in a match where both men should have their chances to win it. I just think Berdych is the more comfortable indoor player and will show that in three tough sets.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This isn't a great match up for Richard Gasquet who can be overpowered by some of the best players on the Tour and Juan Martin Del Potro is also one of the best indoor players in the World at this moment.
There were signs of tiredness in Del Potro last week, but he has had a few days off and I think he can take advantage of Gasquet who may just be glad that he finally got back to the World Tour Finals.
Del Potro has also dominated his matches with Gasquet and I think the big man should be able to dominate this match behind his power. I also think the Frenchman can be guilty of falling apart at times and I like Del Potro to win 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tuesday, 22 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 22nd)
This is the final week of the season for those players on the WTA Tour as the End of Year Championships begin in Istanbul on Tuesday, while the ATP Tour has reached the last exciting two weeks of the season where players try and book a place at the World Tour Finals.
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Saturday, 16 June 2012
Euro 2012 Group Stages- Round 3 (June 16-19)
The Euro 2012 tournament is already half way through as far as matches are concerned and I have to say I haven't been overly impressed with the quality, although that hasn't dampened the excitement of the matches. There just seems to be very few stand-out players and perhaps it is just me being a little nostalgic for the tournaments I enjoyed when I was growing up.
I also don't believe it is right that the tournament will be extended to 24 teams in four years time as I already feel the talent pool is being stretched with the teams we have here now. Adding the likes of Belgium, Montenegro, Estonia, Turkey, Bosnia and Norway doesn't exactly thrill me that we will be getting any more out of the event, while the potential for the 'best third placed' teams to get through brings its own problems at the group stage.
Don't be surprised if there are more 'convenient' results set up in the final round of games to make sure teams have the 'best third place points' and ensure qualification to the next round, but that is an issue for four years time.
There is still everything to play for in Group A as we reach the final games and a big chance for the co-host nation Poland to get through, although they have to create history by winning their first EVER game at the European Championships. It looks a winnable game against the Czech Republic, but hope and expectations are tough factors to actually determine how much they will affect a game. It may just be how Poland deal with those two issues that will ensure a place in the last eight or an unsatisfying exit from the group stage.
The other game seems a little more clear cut and Russia are the right favourites to get the point necessary to ensure they are playing in the Quarter Finals for the second successive Euro Championships. Greece have looked shaky and it is hard to see them turn that around in their final game, while Russia do look like a side that can score a few goals.
I can't wait for the Portugal-Holland game in Group B on Sunday evening as it should be one where neither team sits back and tries to protect a lead. It has all the makings of an extremely high-scoring game as Holland need to win by at least two goals if they have any hope of getting out of a group where they have lost their first two games. I don't have much faith in either teams ability to defend and I think the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie could be given a few chances to make a real mark at the tournament.
Unfortunately for those two nations, one of them will definitely be exiting on Sunday night, while both could go out if Holland win and Denmark avoid defeat to Germany. The Germans have looked solid and have won the group by beating the two 'better' nations in the group and will be expected to seal their passage into the last eight with another win.
However, am I really the only person that thinks Germany may be happy to play out a draw and hope that Holland beat Portugal to ensure both potential threats are eliminated at the group stage? It is a dangerous game as a Denmark win/Portugal fail to win could see Germany displaced at the top of the group and thus ensure a tougher route to the Final, but it is something worth noting.
For example, imagine if news comes through to the German game that Holland have taken an early lead in their game- would it really be that unimaginable that both Germany and Denmark then settle in and wait to see what happens next? Probably is a little too far into the world of conspiracy theories, but I would be VERY interested to see how the Germany-Denmark game developed IF Holland were winning by two goals before any goals have been scored in Lviv.
Talking about potential conspiracies, how about the fact that if Spain and Croatia draw 2-2, Italy will be out no matter what they do against Ireland in their fixture? Italy will know all about that 2-2 result as it was exactly what Denmark and Sweden played out in 2004 to knock the Italians out of the Euro 2004 tournament at this very stage, and it is clear that a team that has the majority of players in the Serie A League affected by match-fixing scandals are clearly worried about this possibility.
It has gone so far that Italian players like Gianluigi Buffon has been quoted as saying that Spain wouldn't do this for their pride. It has also riled up some of the Spanish and Croatian players who are adamant that they will not do this, but it is definitely a possibility that has to be considered- Spain would still win the group, Croatia would go through and a potential big rival in Italy would be out of the competition so everyone (well not the Italians) would win.
Anyway, this is all suggesting the Italy result over Ireland is a 'gimme' and I don't believe that is the case no matter how bad the Irish have played so far in the tournament. Giovanni Trapattoni will really get his team up for his game and it was the one game the Irish really fancied for some reason so I expect them to put in a big effort.
Add in the fact that Italy have struggled to maintain their tempo and performance for a full game so far in the tournament and there is every chance the Irish can sneak a result that will put Italy out of the competition anyway.
It will be a tough game for the Italians, but it would be made all the tougher if the 2-2 scoreline haunts them again.
France have virtually got two feet into the Quarter Finals of the tournament thanks to their 0-2 win over the Ukraine yesterday and they either need one point from their last game with Sweden OR they need England to avoid defeat to Ukraine to ensure they are going through.
Even if France lost 0-1 to Sweden in their final game, an England loss would also see them through to the next round so they are in a really strong position. Their motivation for the game against Sweden may well be decided on Monday night once they figure out if finishing first or second will avoid meeting Spain in the Quarter Finals- I think the French are likely good enough to decide their own fate in the group and I expect they will do what it takes to avoid playing Spain.
The other game between Ukraine and England will be fascinating as a win would guarantee a place in the last eight, while England can also sit back and avoid defeat to make their way out of the group. It was a dramatic turnaround win over Sweden that has given England this leeway in their final game, but there were some real worries with the way they defended and I think they were fortunate to be playing a poor Swedish side in all honesty.
Ukraine didn't look all that much against France either so I think England, with the returning Wayne Rooney, will do enough to qualify. However, things will get a lot tougher with Spain most likely their opponents in the Quarter Finals so there is plenty to look forward to as the tournament marches on.
June 16th
Poland v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14476-Poland-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Greece v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14477-Greece-v-Russia.htm)
June 17th
Denmark v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14488-Denmark-v-Germany.htm)
Portugal v Holland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14489-Portugal-v-Holland.htm)
June 19th
Sweden v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14506-Sweden-v-France.htm)
Ukraine v England Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14507-Ukraine-v-England.htm)
MY PICKS: Poland to win and at least 3 goals to be scored (Quatro) @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Russia win both halves @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Germany to win both halves @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Portugal-Holland Over 4.5 goals @ 6.00 Bodog (1 Unit)
France to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
England to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 6-12, - 0.26 Units (28 Units Staked)
I also don't believe it is right that the tournament will be extended to 24 teams in four years time as I already feel the talent pool is being stretched with the teams we have here now. Adding the likes of Belgium, Montenegro, Estonia, Turkey, Bosnia and Norway doesn't exactly thrill me that we will be getting any more out of the event, while the potential for the 'best third placed' teams to get through brings its own problems at the group stage.
Don't be surprised if there are more 'convenient' results set up in the final round of games to make sure teams have the 'best third place points' and ensure qualification to the next round, but that is an issue for four years time.
There is still everything to play for in Group A as we reach the final games and a big chance for the co-host nation Poland to get through, although they have to create history by winning their first EVER game at the European Championships. It looks a winnable game against the Czech Republic, but hope and expectations are tough factors to actually determine how much they will affect a game. It may just be how Poland deal with those two issues that will ensure a place in the last eight or an unsatisfying exit from the group stage.
The other game seems a little more clear cut and Russia are the right favourites to get the point necessary to ensure they are playing in the Quarter Finals for the second successive Euro Championships. Greece have looked shaky and it is hard to see them turn that around in their final game, while Russia do look like a side that can score a few goals.
I can't wait for the Portugal-Holland game in Group B on Sunday evening as it should be one where neither team sits back and tries to protect a lead. It has all the makings of an extremely high-scoring game as Holland need to win by at least two goals if they have any hope of getting out of a group where they have lost their first two games. I don't have much faith in either teams ability to defend and I think the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie could be given a few chances to make a real mark at the tournament.
Unfortunately for those two nations, one of them will definitely be exiting on Sunday night, while both could go out if Holland win and Denmark avoid defeat to Germany. The Germans have looked solid and have won the group by beating the two 'better' nations in the group and will be expected to seal their passage into the last eight with another win.
However, am I really the only person that thinks Germany may be happy to play out a draw and hope that Holland beat Portugal to ensure both potential threats are eliminated at the group stage? It is a dangerous game as a Denmark win/Portugal fail to win could see Germany displaced at the top of the group and thus ensure a tougher route to the Final, but it is something worth noting.
For example, imagine if news comes through to the German game that Holland have taken an early lead in their game- would it really be that unimaginable that both Germany and Denmark then settle in and wait to see what happens next? Probably is a little too far into the world of conspiracy theories, but I would be VERY interested to see how the Germany-Denmark game developed IF Holland were winning by two goals before any goals have been scored in Lviv.
Talking about potential conspiracies, how about the fact that if Spain and Croatia draw 2-2, Italy will be out no matter what they do against Ireland in their fixture? Italy will know all about that 2-2 result as it was exactly what Denmark and Sweden played out in 2004 to knock the Italians out of the Euro 2004 tournament at this very stage, and it is clear that a team that has the majority of players in the Serie A League affected by match-fixing scandals are clearly worried about this possibility.
It has gone so far that Italian players like Gianluigi Buffon has been quoted as saying that Spain wouldn't do this for their pride. It has also riled up some of the Spanish and Croatian players who are adamant that they will not do this, but it is definitely a possibility that has to be considered- Spain would still win the group, Croatia would go through and a potential big rival in Italy would be out of the competition so everyone (well not the Italians) would win.
Anyway, this is all suggesting the Italy result over Ireland is a 'gimme' and I don't believe that is the case no matter how bad the Irish have played so far in the tournament. Giovanni Trapattoni will really get his team up for his game and it was the one game the Irish really fancied for some reason so I expect them to put in a big effort.
Add in the fact that Italy have struggled to maintain their tempo and performance for a full game so far in the tournament and there is every chance the Irish can sneak a result that will put Italy out of the competition anyway.
It will be a tough game for the Italians, but it would be made all the tougher if the 2-2 scoreline haunts them again.
France have virtually got two feet into the Quarter Finals of the tournament thanks to their 0-2 win over the Ukraine yesterday and they either need one point from their last game with Sweden OR they need England to avoid defeat to Ukraine to ensure they are going through.
Even if France lost 0-1 to Sweden in their final game, an England loss would also see them through to the next round so they are in a really strong position. Their motivation for the game against Sweden may well be decided on Monday night once they figure out if finishing first or second will avoid meeting Spain in the Quarter Finals- I think the French are likely good enough to decide their own fate in the group and I expect they will do what it takes to avoid playing Spain.
The other game between Ukraine and England will be fascinating as a win would guarantee a place in the last eight, while England can also sit back and avoid defeat to make their way out of the group. It was a dramatic turnaround win over Sweden that has given England this leeway in their final game, but there were some real worries with the way they defended and I think they were fortunate to be playing a poor Swedish side in all honesty.
Ukraine didn't look all that much against France either so I think England, with the returning Wayne Rooney, will do enough to qualify. However, things will get a lot tougher with Spain most likely their opponents in the Quarter Finals so there is plenty to look forward to as the tournament marches on.
June 16th
Poland v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14476-Poland-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Greece v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14477-Greece-v-Russia.htm)
June 17th
Denmark v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14488-Denmark-v-Germany.htm)
Portugal v Holland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14489-Portugal-v-Holland.htm)
June 19th
Sweden v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14506-Sweden-v-France.htm)
Ukraine v England Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14507-Ukraine-v-England.htm)
MY PICKS: Poland to win and at least 3 goals to be scored (Quatro) @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Russia win both halves @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Germany to win both halves @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Portugal-Holland Over 4.5 goals @ 6.00 Bodog (1 Unit)
France to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
England to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 6-12, - 0.26 Units (28 Units Staked)
Tuesday, 12 June 2012
Euro 2012 Group Stages Picks- Round 2 (June 12-15)
The first stage of the European Championships were completed last night and it has been a tough tournament to get a full read on at the moment.
Group A started off fairly as expected with the hosts Poland struggling to handle the pressure and being a little fortunate to actually get through the match with a point. The other game in the group saw the Russians totally outplay and dismantle the Czech Republic and put themselves in control of the group after just one game.
Group B saw the biggest surprise so far in the event as Holland were beaten by Denmark- it was another win for luck and fortune as the Danes were outplayed, but the Dutch decided they would miss a number of chances that would have been gobbled up on another day. The defeat has left Holland in a really tough position in the group as anything less than a draw (or possibly a win if Denmark beat Portugal) against Germany will see them exit the tournament before it has really got started.
That would not have been expected by the fans back home considering they had reached the Final of the World Cup just two years ago.
Germany then followed up with a tough and perhaps a little undeserved win over the Portuguese and are now the favourites to win the group and qualify for the last eight. However, they may be a little concerned with the nature of the win as they struggled to break down an organised defence, although the early stages of a tournament are about the three points and getting out of the group rather than any mind blowing performances. The Germans also know avoiding defeat against Holland should put them in the driving seat to qualify as well as putting their rivals in a desperate spot.
Spain and Italy duked out a 1-1 draw in their game in Group C and that was the most entertaining game of the tournament as both teams pushed forward for the win. I am not sure the tactic of playing six midfielders and no striker will work for Spain going forward and I actually think they looked a lot more dangerous when Fernando Torres came on to lead the line. It is much easier for defences against teams that play everything in front of them, like Spain had to with no one leading the line, and the Italians struggled a little to contain Torres' runs once he joined the game. In fact, it took a couple of misses from the striker from good positions that saved Italy a point.
Neither one of those nations can take qualification for granted after Croatia beat the Republic of Ireland 3-1 in the other game in the group. The Irish were a little unfortunate as one goal looked offside, while another saw the ball hit Shay Given on the head after coming off the post.
It was also bad timing that they conceded two minutes either side of half time and the team did look demoralised at the end of the game. I think the result puts pay to the Irish chances of getting through to the Quarter Finals, but also leaves both Italy and Spain in the position of not being able to afford to drop points when they meet Ireland. Croatia's two goal win also gives them a buffer when it comes to goal difference and has made the match between themselves and Italy absolutely huge on Thursday.
Finally, England kicked off their campaign and it is interesting to hear the mixed reaction to their 1-1 draw with France to open Group D. My personal view is that England looked average going forward, but were well organised in defence- that means it will be interesting to see how they react when the onus is on them to attack and win the game rather than avoiding defeat which they clearly were happy to do in the opening game.
France were a very good technically, but I think Karim Benzema needs to make more of an effort to get on the end of the nice passing moves the likes of Samir Nasri and Franck Ribery instigate. Too often, Benzema came far too deep and allowed England to compact the game with no threat of a ball over the top and that needs to change if the French are going to justify dark horse status.
Both England and France, like Italy and Spain, will be wary that Ukraine beat Sweden in the other game and are now top of the group. It does mean that both England and France must also beat Sweden to give themselves a chance of qualifying, although neither the Ukraine or Sweden looked massive threats.
The game between France and Ukraine on Friday will be very interesting to see exactly where the Ukrainians are in terms of actually competing to get out of this group. France provide a real test, but Ukraine have a lot of momentum and it could be tough for Les Bleus who will also know a defeat leaves them in a desperate position.
June 12th
Greece v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14432-Greece-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Poland v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14433-Poland-v-Russia.htm)
June 13th
That was the most frustrating day of the tournament as both teams I picked decided to take the ultimate way out... Greece decided to not turn up for the first half and conceded twice in the opening six minutes, while Russia seemed to be playing far too cockily in the second half and screwed up a number of good looking opportunities to grab a vital second goal and ultimately paid the price to a Poland team that may have won the game in the end.
Here is hoping for a better time after a 0-6 run.
Denmark v Portugal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14437-Denmark-v-Portugal.htm)
Holland v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14448-Holland-v-Germany.htm)
June 14th
Italy v Croatia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14453-Italy-v-Croatia.htm)
Spain v Republic of Ireland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14454-Spain-v-Republic-of-Ireland.htm)
June 15th
Ukraine v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14464-Ukraine-v-France.htm)
England v Sweden Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14465-England-v-Sweden.htm)
MY PICKS: Greece @ 3.40 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Russia @ 2.50 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Portugal to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Holland-Germany Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Italy to win by one goal @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
France to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
England to win by 1 goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 5-7, + 1.94 Units (22 Units Staked)
Group A started off fairly as expected with the hosts Poland struggling to handle the pressure and being a little fortunate to actually get through the match with a point. The other game in the group saw the Russians totally outplay and dismantle the Czech Republic and put themselves in control of the group after just one game.
Group B saw the biggest surprise so far in the event as Holland were beaten by Denmark- it was another win for luck and fortune as the Danes were outplayed, but the Dutch decided they would miss a number of chances that would have been gobbled up on another day. The defeat has left Holland in a really tough position in the group as anything less than a draw (or possibly a win if Denmark beat Portugal) against Germany will see them exit the tournament before it has really got started.
That would not have been expected by the fans back home considering they had reached the Final of the World Cup just two years ago.
Germany then followed up with a tough and perhaps a little undeserved win over the Portuguese and are now the favourites to win the group and qualify for the last eight. However, they may be a little concerned with the nature of the win as they struggled to break down an organised defence, although the early stages of a tournament are about the three points and getting out of the group rather than any mind blowing performances. The Germans also know avoiding defeat against Holland should put them in the driving seat to qualify as well as putting their rivals in a desperate spot.
Spain and Italy duked out a 1-1 draw in their game in Group C and that was the most entertaining game of the tournament as both teams pushed forward for the win. I am not sure the tactic of playing six midfielders and no striker will work for Spain going forward and I actually think they looked a lot more dangerous when Fernando Torres came on to lead the line. It is much easier for defences against teams that play everything in front of them, like Spain had to with no one leading the line, and the Italians struggled a little to contain Torres' runs once he joined the game. In fact, it took a couple of misses from the striker from good positions that saved Italy a point.
Neither one of those nations can take qualification for granted after Croatia beat the Republic of Ireland 3-1 in the other game in the group. The Irish were a little unfortunate as one goal looked offside, while another saw the ball hit Shay Given on the head after coming off the post.
It was also bad timing that they conceded two minutes either side of half time and the team did look demoralised at the end of the game. I think the result puts pay to the Irish chances of getting through to the Quarter Finals, but also leaves both Italy and Spain in the position of not being able to afford to drop points when they meet Ireland. Croatia's two goal win also gives them a buffer when it comes to goal difference and has made the match between themselves and Italy absolutely huge on Thursday.
Finally, England kicked off their campaign and it is interesting to hear the mixed reaction to their 1-1 draw with France to open Group D. My personal view is that England looked average going forward, but were well organised in defence- that means it will be interesting to see how they react when the onus is on them to attack and win the game rather than avoiding defeat which they clearly were happy to do in the opening game.
France were a very good technically, but I think Karim Benzema needs to make more of an effort to get on the end of the nice passing moves the likes of Samir Nasri and Franck Ribery instigate. Too often, Benzema came far too deep and allowed England to compact the game with no threat of a ball over the top and that needs to change if the French are going to justify dark horse status.
Both England and France, like Italy and Spain, will be wary that Ukraine beat Sweden in the other game and are now top of the group. It does mean that both England and France must also beat Sweden to give themselves a chance of qualifying, although neither the Ukraine or Sweden looked massive threats.
The game between France and Ukraine on Friday will be very interesting to see exactly where the Ukrainians are in terms of actually competing to get out of this group. France provide a real test, but Ukraine have a lot of momentum and it could be tough for Les Bleus who will also know a defeat leaves them in a desperate position.
June 12th
Greece v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14432-Greece-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Poland v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14433-Poland-v-Russia.htm)
June 13th
That was the most frustrating day of the tournament as both teams I picked decided to take the ultimate way out... Greece decided to not turn up for the first half and conceded twice in the opening six minutes, while Russia seemed to be playing far too cockily in the second half and screwed up a number of good looking opportunities to grab a vital second goal and ultimately paid the price to a Poland team that may have won the game in the end.
Here is hoping for a better time after a 0-6 run.
Denmark v Portugal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14437-Denmark-v-Portugal.htm)
Holland v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14448-Holland-v-Germany.htm)
June 14th
Italy v Croatia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14453-Italy-v-Croatia.htm)
Spain v Republic of Ireland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14454-Spain-v-Republic-of-Ireland.htm)
June 15th
Ukraine v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14464-Ukraine-v-France.htm)
England v Sweden Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14465-England-v-Sweden.htm)
MY PICKS: Greece @ 3.40 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Russia @ 2.50 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Portugal to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Holland-Germany Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Italy to win by one goal @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
France to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
England to win by 1 goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 5-7, + 1.94 Units (22 Units Staked)
Friday, 8 June 2012
Euro 2012 Group Stage Picks- Round 1 (June 8-11)
I am going to divide my picks from this tournament into sections to make it easier for you guys to find them and view them. I figured I would divide the picks from the group stages into the three round of matches and then create a separate post for the Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Finals going forward.
You can find my outright picks and preview of the tournament as a whole at this link here
As always, I will post a link to this thread on twitter whenever new picks are made and I will update results as they come through.
June 8th
Poland v Greece Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14401-Poland-v-Greece.htm)
Russia v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14402-Russia-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
June 9th
Holland v Denmark Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14405-Holland-v-Denmark.htm)
Germany v Portugal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14406-Germany-v-Portugal.htm)
June 10th
Spain v Italy Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14409-Spain-v-Italy.htm)
Republic of Ireland v Croatia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14411-Republic-of-Ireland-v-Croatia.htm)
June 11th
France v England Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14413-France-v-England.htm)
Ukraine v Sweden Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14417-Ukraine-v-Sweden.htm)
MY PICKS: Greece + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Russia @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holland @ 1.67 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Germany-Portugal Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Spain-Italy Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.88 Stan James (1 Unit)
Republic of Ireland-Croatia Draw @ 3.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
France @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ukraine-Sweden Draw @ 3.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
First Round Group Stage Update: 3-5, - 0.96 Units (13 Units Staked)
You can find my outright picks and preview of the tournament as a whole at this link here
As always, I will post a link to this thread on twitter whenever new picks are made and I will update results as they come through.
June 8th
Poland v Greece Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14401-Poland-v-Greece.htm)
Russia v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14402-Russia-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
June 9th
Holland v Denmark Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14405-Holland-v-Denmark.htm)
Germany v Portugal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14406-Germany-v-Portugal.htm)
June 10th
Spain v Italy Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14409-Spain-v-Italy.htm)
Republic of Ireland v Croatia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14411-Republic-of-Ireland-v-Croatia.htm)
June 11th
France v England Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14413-France-v-England.htm)
Ukraine v Sweden Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14417-Ukraine-v-Sweden.htm)
MY PICKS: Greece + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Russia @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holland @ 1.67 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Germany-Portugal Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Spain-Italy Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.88 Stan James (1 Unit)
Republic of Ireland-Croatia Draw @ 3.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
France @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ukraine-Sweden Draw @ 3.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
First Round Group Stage Update: 3-5, - 0.96 Units (13 Units Staked)
Tuesday, 6 December 2011
Midweek Football Picks and Preview (European and English Football)
It's the final games of the Group Stage in the Champions League as we get set for the 2 month winter break between this round and the last 16. There are still a number of teams fighting for their positions in the elite 16 so we can expect some tense matches in the coming days.
I will update this post during the next 24 hours before getting ready to look at the weekend football.
Olympiacos v Arsenal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12584-Olympiacos-v-Arsenal.htm)
Chelsea v Valencia Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12585-Chelsea-v-Valencia.htm)
Borussia Dortmund v Marseille Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12588-Borussia-Dortmund-v-Marseille.htm)
Basel v Manchester United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12590-Basel-v-Manchester-United.htm)
Ajax v Real Madrid Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12596-Ajax-v-Real-Madrid.htm)
MY PICKS: Olympiacos @ 1.95 BetFred (2 Units)
Chelsea-Valencia Both To Score @ 1.80 BetFred (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Basel-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ajax-Real Madrid Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
December Update: 2-2, - 0.3 Units
I will update this post during the next 24 hours before getting ready to look at the weekend football.
Olympiacos v Arsenal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12584-Olympiacos-v-Arsenal.htm)
Chelsea v Valencia Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12585-Chelsea-v-Valencia.htm)
Borussia Dortmund v Marseille Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12588-Borussia-Dortmund-v-Marseille.htm)
Basel v Manchester United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12590-Basel-v-Manchester-United.htm)
Ajax v Real Madrid Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12596-Ajax-v-Real-Madrid.htm)
MY PICKS: Olympiacos @ 1.95 BetFred (2 Units)
Chelsea-Valencia Both To Score @ 1.80 BetFred (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Basel-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ajax-Real Madrid Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
December Update: 2-2, - 0.3 Units
Thursday, 25 August 2011
Champions League Group Stage Draw Reaction
I know it sounds silly, but I love watching the Champions League Group Stage draw, even though it rarely throws up that much excitement with the vast difference between the sides in pots 1 and 2 and those in the last 2 pots.
However, this year was a little different with the likes of Manchester City, Napoli, Borussia Dortmund and Zenit St Petersburg being potential banana skins for the big teams.
Group A: Bayern Munich, Villarreal, Manchester City and Napoli- This looks an interesting group and all 4 teams must fancy their chances of Qualifying.
Manchester City have some tough away games in that group, but they have got together a squad that has plenty of Champions League experience and I think they will be good enough to join Bayern Munich in the next stage.
Trips to Villarreal and Napoli will cause problems, but I think those two teams will not travel so well and that's what will let them down.
Group B: Inter, CSKA Moscow, Lille and Trabzonspor- On first glance, I would be extremely surprised if Inter Milan fail to get through the Group and are very likely to finish top.
CSKA Moscow are tough to play in Russia and I think that will make the difference and help them join Inter in the last 16.
Group C: Manchester United, Benfica, Basel and Otelul Galati- Manchester United will be extremely happy with the group they have been given, and it should provide an opportunity for Sir Alex Ferguson to give many of the younger players their first taste of European football. I expect the likes of Phil Jones, Danny Welbeck, Tom Cleverley, Ashley Young, Chris Smalling and David De Gea to play in the majority of these fixtures and give the more experienced players a chance to keep the Premier League run going.
Benfica are the toughest opponents in the group and I think their performances at the Stadium of Light will ensure they get enough points to join United in the next round.
Group D: Real Madrid, Lyon, Ajax and Dinamo Zagreb- Jose Mourinho should be very happy with the draw, especially after helping remove the Lyon curse Real Madrid had last season.
Lyon and Ajax should be fighting for 2nd place and it could come down to how they play at Dinamo Zagreb, a very tough looking away game.
Dinamo may feel they can cause a surprise if they get off to a positive start, but I think Real Madrid will be joined by Lyon's experience in the next stage.
Group E: Chelsea, Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen and Genk- Chelsea should be glad what the draw has offered, with little travelling required during the early part of the season and with opponents that should not have enough for them.
Valencia are not the team of old, having lost a number of key players over the last couple of years including Juan Mata to Chelsea and they may just be surprised by Bayer Leverkusen in getting through.
Genk are easily the weakest team in the group and will likely be satisfied if they can get one win, while enjoying the financial benefits of hosting the sides in the group.
Group F: Arsenal, Marseille, Olympiakos and Borussia Dortmund- At first glance it looks like Arsenal have a decent draw, but a little further digging suggests it may not be as straightforward as it seems.
All 3 away games will be tough, while Borussia Dortmund were the best team in pot 4 and the most difficult opponents for the Gunners.
Marseille showed how tough they can be when pushing Manchester United in the last 16 last season, and also beating Chelsea at home in the group stage, while Olympiakos are a tough ask in Greece.
Arsenal will need to improve their away form if they want to go through, else it could be a shock exit in store for Arsene Wenger's team.
Group G: Porto, Shakhtar Donetskk, Zenit St Petersburg and Apoel- This is perhaps the most unappealing group (unless you support one of the sides involved) in terms of viewing. The top 3 sides will feel they can all make it through, while Apoel may be all the better from their previous experience at this stage.
Porto have been weakened by losing their manager and star striker Falcao in the Summer, so I think Shakhtar Donetsk will win the group after reaching the Quarter Finals last season.
Zenit could be the surprise to join them in the last 16 this season, with Porto being the most vulnerable of the Pot 1 clubs.
Group H: Barcelona, AC Milan, BATE Borisov and Viktoria Plzen- It looked like shaping up to be the group of death after the first two teams were put together, but the latter two sides don't look likely to cause too many problems so I do expect Barcelona and AC Milan to move through in that order.
I will make some outright picks before the first group games begin in September, but I think most of the big names will be very glad with what has been put in front of them. I can't see too many surprises, although Arsenal and Manchester City will need to start off well if they don't want to cause too many problems in their qualification.
Porto look the weakest of the top seeds and I think they may be the most likely to go out at this stage.
Teams like Borussia Dortmund, City, Zenit St Petersburg and Bayer Leverkusen look the teams most likely to reach the last 16 after being outside of the top 2 pots in the draw.
Hopefully the layers will have their prices up soon in the outright and group betting markets, and we can find some angles to move forward with.
However, this year was a little different with the likes of Manchester City, Napoli, Borussia Dortmund and Zenit St Petersburg being potential banana skins for the big teams.
Group A: Bayern Munich, Villarreal, Manchester City and Napoli- This looks an interesting group and all 4 teams must fancy their chances of Qualifying.
Manchester City have some tough away games in that group, but they have got together a squad that has plenty of Champions League experience and I think they will be good enough to join Bayern Munich in the next stage.
Trips to Villarreal and Napoli will cause problems, but I think those two teams will not travel so well and that's what will let them down.
Group B: Inter, CSKA Moscow, Lille and Trabzonspor- On first glance, I would be extremely surprised if Inter Milan fail to get through the Group and are very likely to finish top.
CSKA Moscow are tough to play in Russia and I think that will make the difference and help them join Inter in the last 16.
Group C: Manchester United, Benfica, Basel and Otelul Galati- Manchester United will be extremely happy with the group they have been given, and it should provide an opportunity for Sir Alex Ferguson to give many of the younger players their first taste of European football. I expect the likes of Phil Jones, Danny Welbeck, Tom Cleverley, Ashley Young, Chris Smalling and David De Gea to play in the majority of these fixtures and give the more experienced players a chance to keep the Premier League run going.
Benfica are the toughest opponents in the group and I think their performances at the Stadium of Light will ensure they get enough points to join United in the next round.
Group D: Real Madrid, Lyon, Ajax and Dinamo Zagreb- Jose Mourinho should be very happy with the draw, especially after helping remove the Lyon curse Real Madrid had last season.
Lyon and Ajax should be fighting for 2nd place and it could come down to how they play at Dinamo Zagreb, a very tough looking away game.
Dinamo may feel they can cause a surprise if they get off to a positive start, but I think Real Madrid will be joined by Lyon's experience in the next stage.
Group E: Chelsea, Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen and Genk- Chelsea should be glad what the draw has offered, with little travelling required during the early part of the season and with opponents that should not have enough for them.
Valencia are not the team of old, having lost a number of key players over the last couple of years including Juan Mata to Chelsea and they may just be surprised by Bayer Leverkusen in getting through.
Genk are easily the weakest team in the group and will likely be satisfied if they can get one win, while enjoying the financial benefits of hosting the sides in the group.
Group F: Arsenal, Marseille, Olympiakos and Borussia Dortmund- At first glance it looks like Arsenal have a decent draw, but a little further digging suggests it may not be as straightforward as it seems.
All 3 away games will be tough, while Borussia Dortmund were the best team in pot 4 and the most difficult opponents for the Gunners.
Marseille showed how tough they can be when pushing Manchester United in the last 16 last season, and also beating Chelsea at home in the group stage, while Olympiakos are a tough ask in Greece.
Arsenal will need to improve their away form if they want to go through, else it could be a shock exit in store for Arsene Wenger's team.
Group G: Porto, Shakhtar Donetskk, Zenit St Petersburg and Apoel- This is perhaps the most unappealing group (unless you support one of the sides involved) in terms of viewing. The top 3 sides will feel they can all make it through, while Apoel may be all the better from their previous experience at this stage.
Porto have been weakened by losing their manager and star striker Falcao in the Summer, so I think Shakhtar Donetsk will win the group after reaching the Quarter Finals last season.
Zenit could be the surprise to join them in the last 16 this season, with Porto being the most vulnerable of the Pot 1 clubs.
Group H: Barcelona, AC Milan, BATE Borisov and Viktoria Plzen- It looked like shaping up to be the group of death after the first two teams were put together, but the latter two sides don't look likely to cause too many problems so I do expect Barcelona and AC Milan to move through in that order.
I will make some outright picks before the first group games begin in September, but I think most of the big names will be very glad with what has been put in front of them. I can't see too many surprises, although Arsenal and Manchester City will need to start off well if they don't want to cause too many problems in their qualification.
Porto look the weakest of the top seeds and I think they may be the most likely to go out at this stage.
Teams like Borussia Dortmund, City, Zenit St Petersburg and Bayer Leverkusen look the teams most likely to reach the last 16 after being outside of the top 2 pots in the draw.
Hopefully the layers will have their prices up soon in the outright and group betting markets, and we can find some angles to move forward with.
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