Boxing Picks 2024- Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez II (Saturday 7th December)

It has been a brilliant year for Boxing fans, although the only real criticism you may feel in the United Kingdom is the lack of really big cards here.

There have been some top nights, but it is clear that Matchroom, Queensberry and Boxxer promotions are all well aware that more nights are needed to keep fans engaged and attending events, especially if there is ever a moment that the Saudi Arabian authorities decide they are going to pull back from the sport.

For now that looks far from the case with another big night planned on Saturday 21st December to round out the year and with the Ring Magazine purchased, while other sources that are important to the sport have had offers, including Boxrec.

Those have been resisted for now, but it is clear there are no immediate plans for Turki Alalshikh to slip behind the scenes.

In fairness to the face of the Saudi promotion, Turki Alalshikh has been able to announce a hugely impressive card for Saturday 22nd February back in Riyadh- it is a card that features three or four fights that could be headline acts alone and with solid support around those, while Alalshikh admitted there are at least two other bouts that had to be removed to just ensure fans are not having to sit down for too long to take it all in.

Those bouts removed will be announced for a March card according to Turki Alalshikh and there are plenty of other big fights that he wants to put together, which can only be good news for fans.

And with Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren both joining forces on DAZN, an announcement for their first quarter fight nights in 2025 are also expected soon, which should only be further positive news.

In reality, by the time the Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury rematch rolls around later this month, the first quarter of the Boxing calendar for 2025 should have a few weekends filled out and there should be much to look forward to.

For now the concentration is on another big weekend with three decent cards across three different parts of the world.

World Titles are on the line, and World eliminators will be fought out and it all begins in the early evening in London before the action shifts to the United States and Puerto Rico.

Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez II

There will be plenty of eyes on the main event in San Juan where Liam Paro defends his World Title against Richardson Hitchins, but the layers are not having an easy time separating the two.

In reality, a World Title may be on the line but it looks like a terrible match up and one that is only really designed to set the winner up for a big bout in 2025.

Liam Paro might have a slight edge, and the hope is that he comes through with a more attractive style compared with Richardson Hitchins, although the latter has plenty of attributes that could see him edge this one. My hope is to be pleasantly surprised by the quality of the fight, but it is not one where my expectatons are all that high.

Instead the main focus from the two late cards will be the one that Top Rank have put together.

The headline is a rematch between Emanuel Navarrete and Oscar Valdez and it really feels like a bout where the losing fighter may struggle to determine a good path back to relevancy.

It is easy to make the argument that this World Title bid means more to Oscar Valdez who lost the first fight with Emanuel Navarrete without really putting a dent in the Champion. The defeat was the second in three fights for Oscar Valdez against truly world class opponents, but he bounced back with a Stoppage of Liam Wilson earlier this season to earn a second crack at the WBO World Title.

Since that win, things have not been the same for Emanuel Navarrete, which has perhaps made this rematch a bit more intriguing considering the strong win he had in the first bout in August 2023.

A Majority Decision draw with Robson Conceicao to retain his title was followed by a very tight defeat to Denys Berinchyk in the Lightweight Division, which has forced Navarrete back to the Super Featherweight Ranks.

It was a poor night for Emanuel Navarrete and there is a concern that the miles on the clock have added up and perhaps put him on the decline in his career. Going back down to 130 Pounds will help, and Navarrete has admitted has work to do in order to improve his technique.

There is also a feeling that Emanuel Navarrete needs to work harder to achieve what he wants, but the power that did not carry up to Lightweight should be much more telling back at Super Featherweight. Some have suggested that ha had not put in the kind of effort you would expect in training camp, but a loss should just refocus the defending Champion and he might be all the better for that.

In their first meeting, Emanuel Navarrete took away some of the Oscar Valdez heart and a hand injury perhaps hindered his chances of pushing through and eventually Stopping the challenger who has come up in weight.

Oscar Valdez is definitely on the back nine of his own career and we will learn how much he still wants it when he has to come through some stormy moments.

The feeling is that Emanuel Navarrete has a bit more in the tank and his extra power should start to break down Oscar Valdez, whose time at this level feels much closer to the end than the Champion. He was getting a little beaten up in the first meeting and that was against a Navarrete with an injured hand with the suggestion that this time the power is a bit more telling and can force a Stoppage in the final quarter of the contest.

The co-main event on this card is another rematch when Rafael Espinoza defends his WBO World Featherweight Title against Robeisy Ramirez.

The defending Champion won the World Title in an upset of Ramirez almost exactly twelve months ago and Rafael Espinoza is tall and awkward for this Division. However, that has led to some suggestions that the unbeaten fighter is thinking of moving up to Super Featherweight and could have potentially had some issues making weight.

His work ethic saw Espinoza overcome a Fifth Round Knock Down and later put Robeisy Ramirez on the floor in taking a Split Decision win.

The former Champion has stated that he was not ready for the first fight and Robeisy Ramirez was perhaps looking past Rafael Espinoza at potentially bigger bouts that could have been ahead. Boxing is a sport where losing focus can end up with a real punishment and Ramirez will be very keen to make up for the defeat.

He can redeem himself, even set as the underdog and Rafael Espinoza's suggestion that he needs to move up in weight after this one could mean the body work is where the title can be reclaimed by Robeisy Ramirez.

The Cuban had Rafael Espinoza hurt the first time around, and the extra focus for this remaatch should see Robeisy Ramirez bounce back and reclaim his World Title with an impressive performance.

Over in London, Frank Warren and Queensberry Promotions have put together another of their 'Magnificent Seven' cards and there are a host of their potential stars in the making on show.

The headliner is a WBO World Title eliminator and there is a real feeling that Warren is hoping to set up a huge Unification between two British fighters at the back end of 2025 if the names on his roster can bring home World Titles over the next six months.

There is a decent undercard, which is expected, and the return of Lawrence Okolie under a third different promotional banner is intriguing, if only because the former Cruiserweight and Bridgerweight Champion has now officially entered the Heavyweight ranks.

It is tough to really have great expectations of Okolie in this Division, but he should get some big opportunities to prove a lot of people wrong over the next year.

He has come in very heavy, but should have too much for Hussein Muhamed and likely gets the job done before the second half of the fight.

Another Heavyweight is making a return from a fourteen month layoff (even though it feels a lot longer than that) and David Adeleye is looking to bounce back from the one-sided loss to Fabian Wardley in October 2023. He is with a new trainer now, Adam Booth, but Adeleye is not going to be entering a tune up.

Instead it is unbeaten Solomon Dacres in front of Adeleye, but the feeling is that the latter's power edge will prove to be telling.

Big things are expected of Sam Noakes who is in the chief support position on the card and he continues his progression towards the World level.

He has earned plenty of experience from his last two fights at European level and he is the naturally bigger man compared with Ryan Walsh, who has veteran experience and will feel he has nothing to lose as the B side.

However, it is far from ideal preparation to have just five Rounds under the belt since March 2022 and Ryan Walsh's record of never being Stopped in a professional ring will be under serious threat.

In reality, Ryan Walsh is unlikely to have been hit as hard and consistently as he will when facing Sam Noakes and this could be a real statement performance in an impressive 135 Pound Division.

The main event was mentioned above and both Denzel Bentley and Bradley Pauls have a massive opportunity in front of them with the winner becoming mandatory for the WBO World Title held by Janibek Alimkhanuly.

This is a rematch that Bentley has wanted ever since pushing the Champion to a defeat on the cards, but his stock dipped after losing his British Title to Nathan Heaney.

While trying not to make excuses, Denzel Bentley has made it clear that all was not right on that night and he has won two fights in a row to earn this opportunity to regain the British Title that was lost.

It is Bradley Pauls who holds it after beating Nathan Heaney in a Twelfth Round Stoppage in a rematch of a controversial draw between the two. Credit has to be given to Bradley Pauls after bouncing back from the defeat to Tyler Denny, but there is a feeling that Denzel Bentley at his best is a significant step up from the level of Pauls, Heaney and Denny.

The Londoner can be frustrated at times depending on the style, but this main event looks like it will mesh pretty well with Pauls looking to come forward.

Ultimately that could lead to his downfall against someone who hits very hard like Denzel Bentley and the feeling is that the former Champion can earn the British Title again and then push for the rematch with Alimkhanuly in the first half of 2025 with the hope that eventually there could be a Unification against Hamzah Sheeraz to be arranged.

MY PICKS: Emanuel Navarrete to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Robeisy Ramirez to Win by KO/TKO @ 4.50 William Hill (1 Unit)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

David Adeleye to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Sam Noakes to Win Between 1-6 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Denzel Bentley to Win By KO/TKO @ 2.62 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 31-58, + 5.74 Units (115 Units Staked, + 4.99% Yield)

NFL Week 13 Picks 2020 (December 6-8)

Week 13 of the NFL season is going to be played between Sunday and Tuesday this week as the League tries to manage the Covid-19 outbreaks that were inevitable.

I have the Sunday selections set to go, but will add any Picks from Monday and Tuesday here.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: If the season was to come to an end today, the 9-2 New Orleans Saints would be the team given the Bye in the Wild Card Round of the NFL PlayOffs courtesy of the top Seed in the NFC. All roads having to go through the Super Dome through to the Super Bowl would give the Saints a real advantage, but their Divisional rivals would like nothing more than to play spoiler.

It is the second time in three weeks that the Saints and the 4-7 Atlanta Falcons will be meeting having seen New Orleans win comfortably at home in Week 11. However it was the first time this season that Taysom Hill would have started at Quarter Back and you do have to wonder if the Falcons had been preparing for Jameis Winston rather than Hill after Drew Brees was confirmed to miss some time at Quarter Back.

That may have contributed to the defeat the first time these teams met, but Atlanta should feel more suitably prepared for this home game as Hill makes a second road start in succession. Taysom Hill struggled last week at the Denver Broncos, but he may feel there is more room to have success in this one although an improving Atlanta Defensive unit has to be given the respect they deserve.

The match up may be a good one for Taysom Hill because the Atlanta Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run as they would have liked, even though they restricted the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12. This Saints team look to have an Offensive Line opening more holes than the Raiders and both Alvin Kamara and Letavius Murray look healthier than Josh Jacobs, while Hill is more than capable of making some big plays with his legs.

Taysom Hill has to show a bit more consistency passing the ball if the Saints are going to keep the chains moving, but he could face some real pressure from the Atlanta pass rush when he does drop back. While there are some holes in the Secondary which can be exploited, Hill needs to make sure his team remain in front of the chains to give himself as easy a day as possible.

Atlanta's bigger challenge may not be slowing down the New Orleans Saints, but finding enough Offensive firepower of their own to keep the ball moving. Julio Jones is set to be back which is a huge boost for Matt Ryan and the entire passing game, but the Saints have been very strong Defensively in recent showings and did restrict Atlanta to 9 points two weeks ago.

The New Orleans Defensive Line have been very stout against the run all season and they have also been very good when it comes to pinning back the ears and bringing down the Quarter Back. That is a major problem for Atlanta who can't expect Todd Gurley to get on track which means time in the pocket is going to be an issue for Matt Ryan at Quarter Back.

I do think Ryan is good enough to make some plays down the field and someone like Julio Jones is a match up problem for any Secondary when at his best. It does feel like Jones won't be at his healthiest though and this Saints team have been able to create turnovers which could be something Ryan struggles to avoid as he throws with pressure in and around him.

New Orleans have been the dominant team in this Divisional rivalry of late and they should be plenty motivated to edge a little closer to the top Seed in the NFC.

Of course Atlanta would love to play spoiler, and they are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen games as the home underdog, but New Orleans have won on their last two visits here.

The Saints are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the road favourite and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against Divisional rivals. While the spread is perhaps a touch higher than I would have liked, I do think the Saints can win this one on the road and complete the sweep of the Falcons with some late plays from the Defensive unit edging the game in their favour.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Pick: A surprising season continues in a positive manner for the 7-4 Miami Dolphins and they look good for a PlayOff spot, although they can't afford to overlook opponents like this one. While their own rookie Quarter Back could be missing in Week 13, Miami still should have a lot of motivation compared with the 2-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals who have also lost a first year starter at Quarter Back.

The difference between these teams is that if Tua Tagovailoa is not able to go, the Dolphins can fall back on Ryan Fitzpatrick who has really been an inspirational player and man for the entire organisation over the last eighteen months. On the other side the Bengals have lost Joe Burrow until next season, but their drop off is significant as they turn to Brandon Allen for a second game in a row.

A late Touchdown helped the Bengals cover last week against the New York Giants, but Allen struggled at Quarter Back and he won't be facing a Miami Defensive unit that has given up a lot of big plays in the past. The Miami Secondary is the strength of the team, but Cincinnati are going to have issues establishing the run as they have continued to struggle without Joe Mixon.

Giovani Bernard has not really been able to get any consistency going on the ground and I am not sure he will take advantage of the fact that Miami have given up some solid plays on the ground. And it will be a big problem for the Bengals if they fall a couple of scores behind and then have to lean on Brandon Allen to try and lead them back while throwing against a dangerous pair of Defensive Backs.

Brandon Allen is not protected that well and Cincinnati have to be aware of the pass rush Miami have been able to generate and how that has led to some key turnovers or Defensive scores that have pushed the team forward.

At the moment we don't know who will be starting for Miami, but whoever it is has to be feeling pretty good about their chances of throwing the ball down the field with success. The Dolphins are hoping to have a couple of the Running Backs returning to action, but the Bengals Defensive Line have not played badly and it will be up to Fitzpatrick or Tagovailoa to take advantage of the Secondary with their arm,

The Miami Offensive Line has not been as solid as they would like in pass protection, but some of that is down to the Quarter Backs being a little indecisive in the pocket. In this game the Bengals are unlikely to have the players to really get after either Fitzpatrick or Tagovailoa and that should see them find the time to get the ball out to DeVante Parker who has been improving as a Receiver week after week.

Cincinnati have been a good team to back at the window and that has to be respected, but Miami are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine as the favourite. The Dolphins are also 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I think a Defensive/Special Teams play or two will also aid Miami in covering what is a very big spread on paper.

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Both of these teams head into Week 13 of the NFL season with an 8-3 record, but the Tennessee Titans are on course to win the AFC South which would mean hosting at least one PlayOff Game in January. The Cleveland Browns will be very pleased with their record which has them in pole position to earn a Wild Card spot, but they are 3 games behind the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers and it is all about clinching one of the extra berths in the PlayOffs for them.

With that in mind both teams will recognise the importance of this one despite having Divisional Games on deck.

The Tennessee Titans have to be feeling really good about themselves as they get to return home following road wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts. The latter win gives the Titans a single game lead in their Division over the Colts, but the Titans are also looking on course to win the tie-breaker.

Mike Vrabel is not someone who will be thinking too far ahead though and he will be making sure his team are focused on this game which may still be a tie-breaker for a Wild Card spot if the Titans don't win the Division. He will be stressing that to his team and I do think the Titans will match up well with the injury hit Cleveland Browns who have overachieved without really convincing that they are a deserving eight win team.

The Titans will not be hard to work out Offensively as everything is based on establishing the run- Derrick Henry continues to churn out some huge numbers and he looks to be going up against a Cleveland Defensive Line which has shown some wear and tear and struggled to stop the run in recent games.

If you have issues slowing down the likes of Philadelphia and Jacksonville, I am not sure you can be very confident that you can get the better of the Tennessee Titans. Their big Running Back has seemingly gotten stronger week after week in each NFL season and Derrick Henry could rip off some huge gains here to put the Titans in front of the chains.

That will only open things up for Ryan Tannehill who will be throwing into a banged up Cleveland Secondary and I do think the Quarter Back will be a threat with play-action likely to be a key for him. Myles Garrett is back for Cleveland to give their pass rush a boost, but it can be slowed down as the Browns sell out to stop Henry and so I expect Ryan Tannehill to find some time to make some big plays down the field.

I am expecting Tennessee to have success moving the ball on the ground, and it is the same kind of approach that Cleveland will take in this game. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have offered the Browns a serious Running Back tandem, and I do think both are very capable of having big games even if the Titans Defensive Line have just stiffened up on the ground game.

Stopping Chubb and Hunt completely is not going to happen, but Tennessee's Defensive Line may at least put them in a couple of third and long spots which will shift a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield at Quarter Back. In recent weeks it has felt like Cleveland have been winning games in spite of Mayfield's play and I do think the Browns may have issues if their two Running Backs are not able to establish consistency on the ground.

Baker Mayfield may look for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the passing game and the Titans Secondary is also banged up so he may be able to have one of his better games at Quarter Back. Jarvis Landry will be a big target and the Titans don't have the best pass rush so there should be time for Mayfield too, but he has not shown the kind of consistency that suggests he can keep up with a Tennessee team that may control the clock and have a better balance Offensively than Cleveland can conjure up.

Cleveland are 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven road games and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog. I do have to accept that Tennessee are not the best favourite to get behind, but the Browns have tended to beat the teams they should and not those they shouldn't and I expect that to be the case in Week 13 as Tennessee make the big plays to pull away for the cover.

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: It sounds like Daniel Jones has escaped a major injury, but it would still be a surprise if the Quarter Back is risked for the New York Giants in Week 13. In usual circumstances, a 4-7 team would really take no risks at all with their potential franchise Quarter Back, but Daniel Jones and the New York Giants are stunningly leading the NFC East and so every game will matter to them as they look to earn a surprising spot in the PlayOffs.

The feeling is that Jones will miss out this week which means the Giants will turn to Colt McCoy against the 8-3 Seattle Seahawks who lead the NFC West and remain one of the leading contenders in the NFC to represent the Conference in the Super Bowl. A win on the road at Philadelphia means the Seahawks are still chasing down the New Orleans Saints for the top Seed in the NFC, while the Defensive unit are picking up some key players returning from injury and showing improvement on the field.

A few weeks ago even a backup like McCoy would feel he could have a decent showing against the Seahawks, but the challenge is much greater for him now. Key trades strengthened the Seattle Defensive Line, but the injuries have also begun to clear up in the Secondary which has seen the team come on leaps and bounds from the statistics they were showing that had Seattle on pace to be a historically bad Defense.

There is some talent on the New York roster, but the Giants may struggle to really spark in this one on the Offensive side of the ball. Colt McCoy can't really rely on the running game with the improvement I have mentioned on the Seattle Defensive Line, while I don't think the Quarter Back is going to be given a lot of time to allow plays to develop further up the field when playing behind this Offensive Line.

The Giants have not protected Daniel Jones very well and Colt McCoy can't expect much better against a fierce Seattle pass rush that have managed to get to Quarter Backs.

Colt McCoy should be able to make a couple of nice throws and he has Receivers who will stand up for him, but I think this is a tough spot for the backup. With Seattle showing improvement, the Giants are going to have to lean on their own Defensive unit to try and slow down what has been an inconsistent Seattle Offense in recent weeks.

We have seen Russell Wilson at his best and worst at times in recent weeks, but DK Metcalf seems to be developing into one of the best Receivers in the NFL and is coming off another huge showing in Philadelphia. Russell Wilson has not been helped by an Offensive Line which has not given him time to stand upright, and he will be facing a solid New York pass rush that has been getting to the Quarter Back quickly enough to protect their own Secondary.

I still don't know how you stop Metcalf who is just a huge body with speed and so I would anticipate Russell Wilson having one of his better days. Aiding him will be the running game as both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde should be able to rip off some big gains against the struggling Giants Defensive Line, while Russell Wilson himself is capable of pulling the ball down and moving the chains with his legs.

If Daniel Jones was playing I do think the game would be closer, but with Colt McCoy in the backfield I am not sure the Giants will be able to score enough points to stay with Seattle on the road.

The Giants have covered the last six times they have been set as the underdog, but the favourite is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven between these teams.

Seattle are a solid 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite and I do think they can make enough plays on both sides of the ball to eventually pull clear and surpass this spread.

Washington Football Team @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Like many Leagues in North America, the NFL has been forced to make schedule changes and the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to remain unbeaten through a difficult time.

Their Week 12 game against the Baltimore Ravens was supposed to be played on Thanksgiving Day, but was delayed almost an entire week which means the Steelers are playing on a short turnaround in Week 13. The NFL have tried to help by pushing this game back from Sunday to Monday, but the 11-0 Steelers will be challenged as injuries have piled up for a team that effectively has not had a Bye Week in 2020.

With that in mind it is very, very important for the Steelers to try and finish with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC which will mean being the only team given a Bye in the new look Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. Despite being the only unbeaten team in the NFL, the Steelers are only just edging out the Kansas City Chiefs for the top Seed and so it is important for Pittsburgh to knuckle down and battle through the difficulties.

While they are on a short rest, the Washington Football Team are back in action for the first time in almost two weeks having crushed the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. That moved Washington to 4-7 for the season, although they are trailing the New York Giants in the NFC East after the Giants managed to upset the Seattle Seahawks on the road.

Since Alex Smith took over at Quarter Back, Washington have been playing with more confidence although they have not played too many teams of the level of Pittsburgh in recent weeks. They are 3-3 in their last six games, but Washington have played the Giants twice, the Cowboys twice, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Detroit Lions in that time.

That is not exactly the who's who of the NFL and now they are playing a Defensive unit which has been amongst the very best in the League. However the Steelers have been hurt by the loss of Bud Dupree who suffered a bad ACL injury at the end of the win over the Ravens and will just lessen the threat of the pass rush which Pittsburgh have generated all season.

Alex Smith could lean on Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic to try and keep the Football Team in front of the chains- in recent games the Steelers Defensive Line have given up some yards on the ground, but that will only be a relevant play for Washington as long as they are competitive. It will at least give the Quarter Back a chance, although this Pittsburgh Secondary have been playing at a high level and Smith has to be aware of the turnovers they are able to create.

Even without Bud Dupree I would expect the Steelers pass rush to get the better of the Washington Offensive Line which has not been very good when it comes to pass protection. That may increase the opportunities for turnovers, even though the Head Coach will be demanding more from his team.

Mike Tomlin wasn't completely satisfied with the performance level of his Defensive team, but he would have likely been more frustrated with the Special Teams and the Offense which struggled to see off the short-handed Baltimore Ravens.

I expect a better all around performance from Pittsburgh even though Ben Roethlisberger is a little banged up and James Connor is likely going to miss out again. Benny Snell did well enough in the absence of Connor and I would expect Big Ben to utilise all of his Receiving threats in a much more effective way than he did against the Ravens last week.

It may all come down to Roethlisberger and the passing game because there have been one or two struggles to get the ground game on track. The Washington Defensive Line is the strength of the Football Team and they have been stout against the run in recent games too, although once again you do have to consider the level of opponent they have been going up against.

I do feel the Secondary is perhaps putting up better numbers than they should be because they have not faced too many high-powered Offenses and with that in mind I am expecting a solid day from Pittsburgh and the passing game. There are too many threats for the Football Team to cover up completely and the Steelers should be able to put some points up which may be too much for the Alex Smith led Washington Offense to keep up with.

The spot is not ideal for Pittsburgh which has to be a worry and they were lethargic in their win over Baltimore, although I expect that performance to mean a much better one all around in this game. They didn't cover as a favourite thanks to a late Touchdown given up, but the Steelers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite.

My feeling is that Pittsburgh will get back to the high-scoring team we have gotten used to seeing in 2020 and that may be too much for Washington to compete with here.

Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: In recent seasons we have become accustomed to the NFL scheduling some neutral field regular season games in order to build the League up even further. Covid-19 put an end to that in 2020, but then this game had to be moved as the San Francisco authorities made it clear a surge in the disease would mean all events had to be cancelled.

The NFL doesn't want to lose any regular season games and they have managed to avoid that through twelve weeks of 2020- the decision was thus made that the 49ers would host their next two home games in Arizona and hopefully be able to return back to San Francisco when they are next due to play there on Boxing Day.

This is a site that may not bring back too many good memories for the Buffalo Bills who lost to the Arizona Cardinals on a last second Hail Mary last month. The Bills bounced back to move to 8-3 for the season when they beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, but they will be in a tie at the top of the AFC East if they were to lose this game after the Miami Dolphins moved their record to 8-4 on Sunday.

Buffalo are perhaps in a bad spot with their next game being against the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Bills can't overlook the healthier San Francisco 49ers especially being in the midst of a Divisional battle. The 49ers are at 5-6, but the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 has just given them a lift in their bid to return to the PlayOffs and this week could not have gone much better for them to this point.

Losses for the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals means the 49ers will be firmly back in the PlayOff picture with a win and the importance of his game will not be lost on either team despite it being a non-Conference one.

Nick Mullens is still playing in place of Jimmy Garoppolo and that is an issue at Quarter Back, but Mullens is playing well enough to keep the 49ers in front of the chains. George Kittle is a big miss at Tight End too, but Mullens should be able to have the majority of his other big name Receivers back for this game and that will give him a real chance to have some success.

In recent games the 49ers have not been able to build up a big running threat to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back, but Raheem Mostert has returned and it should mean a stronger end to the regular season for San Francisco. However this may not be the game in which the running game gets back on track with Buffalo's Defensive Line being one of the better ones in the NFL.

Kyle Shanahan is a strong Offensive mind that will employ screens in place of the rush and Nick Mullens should have some nice drives against this Buffalo Secondary which has given up more big plays than we have been used to in the Sean McDermott era. The Bills pass rush could cause some problems for the 49ers, while the Secondary have been able to turn the ball over and that could be an issue for Mullens who has made one or two mistakes when throwing.

Running the ball may be a problem for the Buffalo Bills too, although they have leaned on Josh Allen a lot more this season as the Quarter Back has developed. There have been times Allen looks to have made a permanent move to the next level, but this is a tough Secondary to play against and the Offensive Line have not always been able to protect their Quarter Back.

Josh Allen will have to be aware of where Richard Sherman is at all times, but he does have some solid Receiving options and he can make some plays with his legs to make sure Buffalo are in front of the chains. That will open things up down the field and I think he can out-duel Nick Mullens while helping Buffalo to an important win.

The Bills have a 6-1-2 record in their last nine games as the road underdog, although this is technically not a road game. San Francisco have a 9-21-1 record in their last thirty-one games as the favourite and I think Josh Allen will be able to lead his team to one or two more drives than Nick Mullens which lead to a narrow win and keeping control of their place in the AFC PlayOff picture.

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Sky Bet (2 Units)

New England Patriots + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2019- Andy Ruiz Jr vs Anthony Joshua 2 (December 7th)

Things were supposed to go very differently for Anthony Joshua when he headed over the pond to make his American debut at Madison Square Garden on June 1st earlier this year, but the stunning upset at the hands of Andy Ruiz Jr has changed the layout of the Heavyweight Division.

In early December Joshua heads over to Saudi Arabia to try and redeem himself and once again put his name alongside Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury as the leading lights of the Heavyweight scene. This is a big moment for Joshua and all his fans as he looks to avoid a second straight loss that will likely put him to the back of the line and end any realistic hopes of a Unification fight for at least eighteen months.

Some suggest the career is on the line too, although Joshua has denied those and is instead focusing solely on trying to make sure he is on the winning side of this one.


The card in Saudi Arabia is a Heavyweight loaded one and also features the return of Dillian Whyte who was cleared by UKAD having supposedly failed a test before his win over Oscar Rivas in July. He will have a keen eye on the main event too as his best chance of finally securing a Heavyweight title shot may be if Joshua is able to win and set up a huge fight back in the United Kingdom next year.

Others like Filip Hrgovic and the winner of Michael Hunter vs Alexander Povetkin are also trying to get into the World title mix in what is a busier Division than we have seen for years.

Things will definitely look clearer for the contenders at the end of Saturday evening depending who wins the main event and how much governing bodies are going to be pushing their mandatories in the months ahead.


The card in Saudi Arabia is getting the majority of the attention in the Boxing world this weekend, but there are another couple of World Title holders in action this weekend. The main interest there has to be the return of Jermall Charlo as he takes on Dennis Hogan, while British fight fans will also see Chris Eubank Jr for the first time since beating James DeGale in a grudge fight earlier this year.


At the end of November the Boxing Picks returned to a positive position thanks to Deontay Wilder's 7th Round defeat of Luis Ortiz, but there are a couple of big weekends to come in 2019 to determine whether this year will be a success to back up 2018. It hasn't been perfect to say the least, but finishing up in the black is always a positive and that has to be the aim.

Mahammadrasul Majidov vs Tom Little

This is a Heavyweight loaded card in Saudi Arabia and the one that is going to kick off the big punching evening of Boxing is this bout between 1-0 Mahammadrasul Majidov against Tom Little from the United Kingdom.

You will probably hear it at least once during this one that Majidov holds a win over Anthony Joshua from his amateur days, but the professional game is very different. At 33 years old time is not really on his side and I expect him to be pushed forward very much in the same manner Joe Joyce is being pushed, another fighter that Majidov has faced in the amateurs.

If you are being brutally honest, Majidov was not very impressive in his first professional bout and Tom Little is going to come into this one and give it a go. A controversial stoppage against David Price was the last time we saw Little in the ring, but that was almost a year ago and I am surprised by that considering he is always seemingly around Eddie Hearn asking for an opportunity.

I don't think Little is better than the likes of David Allen though and the best thing he can be is perhaps a little durable. It took Filip Hrgovic Four Rounds to get rid of Little and Daniel Dubois a touch longer in Five Rounds and anything other than a Majidov stoppage would be hard to really appreciate.

He should have the power and the technique to start putting it on Little at some point in the middle of this fight, but I do think Majidov is going to have to spend a little time breaking down his opponent. My feeling is that this won't go further than the likes of Hrgovic, Dubois and David Price, but either a Fourth or Fifth Round stoppage makes it difficult to back Majidov on the Grouped Round market because it is being split right on those numbers.

However you can back this fight to have fewer than Six Rounds and I think that is where my focus will be. I don't think Majidov is going to want to keep Little around and I can see his superior amateur skills helping create openings leading to some big shots around the halfway mark that gets the job done.

Filip Hrgovic vs Eric Molina

There are some big things expected of 27 year old Croatian Filip Hrgovic who looks to put a former World Title challenger on his resume when taking on Eric Molina on Saturday.

The big punching Hrgovic has only seen two of his nine professional bouts reach the cards while the other seven have all ended relatively early. There might be some suggestion that Hrgovic does not carry his power that well when you see that anyone getting out of the Fourth Round has managed to hear the bell and both were in Eight Rounders where he would have had time to find a finish if he could.

One of those was against Kevin Johnson who has long been a fighter that will give prospects some Rounds under their belt, but Hrgovic failed to stop Sean Turner who was beaten very quickly by Nathan Gormon since then.

Sometimes it is the way it goes, but I do think Hrgovic can make a big statement on Saturday when taking on Molina.

Eric Molina has been in with Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder while also facing contender Dominic Breazeale although all ended with the Texan being stopped. All five professional losses have come via stoppage and three of those have been very early and Drummer Boy has had one fight in over two years which doesn't bode well for him.

My feeling is that Hrgovic is going to be able to catch Molina cold in this one too and he has shown he can be a finisher when the situation arises. This is the third fight Hrgovic will be having in 2019 and the previous two opponents have lasted a combined Four Rounds.

I don't think the Croatian will have to go looking for Molina in this one and I can see him finishing the fight in the first Four Rounds as he has done many times already.

Dillian Whyte vs Mariusz Wach

There is clearly a lot of anger inside Dillian Whyte at the moment after UKAD finally released a statement that cleared him of any wrongdoing ahead of his fight with Oscar Rivas. Just a day or two after beating Rivas, a report was released that Whyte had adverse findings in a drug test and was only cleared on the morning of the fight, something the British fighter had been saying was not as it sounded.

It has taken UKAD a few months to sort themselves out, but Whyte has seen his career just stall following the reports. It saw the WBC remove him from their World Rankings and Whyte would normally have been looking to headline his own fight in December is instead on the Anthony Joshua undercard in Saudi Arabia.

He did weigh in very heavy for this one, but I think Whyte is going to be looking to take his anger out of Mariusz Wach who is best known for going the distance with Wladimir Klitschko when losing to the long-time Heavyweight Champion.

The big Pole is 39 years old now and that fight for the World Title was over seven years ago and so Wach has seen better days. Some of his resistance might have eroded away with three of his last four defeats coming by stoppage including one against Jarrell Miller.

This is going to be Wach's third fight in four months, but his previous two opponents were nothing to write home about and this is a big step up. Even his defeats to the likes of Miller and Martin Bakole are against opponents who are not quite as good as Whyte and I think Wach is going to do well to survive this one.

He is a big guy and he has shown some durability, while I do have to wonder how Whyte is going to carry his additional weight. However Wach has shown he slows down in the second half of fights and begins to ship far too much punishment which is going to give the referee or corner a chance to stop this.

Dillian Whyte should be ready to unload some big shots when the chance presents, although he did struggle when facing Robert Helenius who was happy to survive very early on. That might be the Wach method and so I do think there is a chance that Whyte will win an easy Unanimous Decision, especially while carrying his weight.

However I think Whyte will soon realise he is facing someone who doesn't have a lot coming back and that will drive him forward for the stoppage. I think he will be keen to draw a line under the UKAD issue and that should see him unload some big shots in the second half which eventually sees Wach wilt under the pressure.

Alexander Povetkin vs Michael Hunter

The main support in Saudi Arabia is the crossroads fight between Alexander Povetkin and Michael Hunter with both potentially going to be in line to fight the likes of Dillian Whyte and Anthony Joshua (if he wins his rematch) over the coming months.

This is a WBA Eliminator so the winner will be ready to take on either Manuel Charr for the Regular Belt or have a shot at the Super Champion whether that is Joshua or Andy Ruiz Jr.

Alexander Povetkin has to know he won't have too many more opportunities to challenge for a World Title having come up short against Anthony Joshua in 2018. If he loses he will go to the back of the line and at 40 years old you have to question how much the Russian has left in the tank.

He did beat Hughie Fury in a boring fight back in August, but this should be a lot more interesting as Michael Hunter continues to surprise in the Heavyweight Division. His move from Cruiserweight to Heavyweight did not come with the same hoopla as Oleksandr Usyk's, but that remains the sole defeat for Hunter who has won six in a row since that defeat and all in this Division.

Two of those wins have been against unbeaten fighters in what have to be considered upsets, but this time Hunter is in front of the layers and is favoured to beat Povetkin. Michael Hunter has spoken of stopping the former World Champion, but I am more leaning towards the American winning by a Decision.

Back in his prime Povetkin would have the power and the skills to really give Hunter massive problems, but I am beginning to feel he is a faded force these days. While I think Povetkin still has some pop, I do think he is a fighter that might quickly wear down and as long as Hunter is sensible he should be able to win this fight without putting himself in massive danger.

Michael Hunter clearly has some pop considering he had four stoppages in a row before the Decision win over Sergey Kuzmin. He also put Kuzmin down during that fight and I would not be massively surprised if a tired Povetkin is perhaps pulled out late in the fight.

However the sensible play looks to be backing the American to just pick his shots and not get into a firefight with Povetkin. That should lead to a win on the cards for Hunter and at odds against that is the play.

Andy Ruiz Jr vs Anthony Joshua II

The first thing I had to do is look back to June 1st and read what I had wrote about a fight I thought was going to be won by Anthony Joshua and fairly early on too.

I expected Joshua to fight to his size and win the fight, but I did mention the fast hands of Ruiz Jr and that the fight could be interesting if Joshua wants to get into a firefight, but there was no way I really believed anything but a comfortable Joshua win was on the cards.

We all saw what happened in Madison Square Garden that evening and it changed the lives of both fighters who looked to be on very different paths on May 31st.

Now we get into the rematch and once again everyone is talking about the Ruiz Jr weight- I am not convinced he didn't load his clothes to make himself scale heavier than he is, but it does raise a couple of questions about whether Ruiz Jr has been enjoying life a little too much since it all changed for him thanks to a huge left hook that landed in the Third Round.

It does feel like many have forgotten that Joshua actually scored the first Knock Down on the day, but you can't ignore the kind of long beating he then suffered. Yes he wasn't helped by a clear concussion that knocked his equilibrium out of sync, but it is the kind of loss that is vastly different to the one suffered by Lennox Lewis in his defeat to Hasim Rahman that so many are comparing this rematch to.

In fact it was much more like the sustained beating that Mike Tyson took against Buster Douglas and we did not get to see that rematch. In the Heavyweight Division I can rarely remember one fighter being knocked around as much as Joshua was that has had an immediate rematch and won that fight.

The biggest factor may be how much Andy Ruiz Jr wants this, but he does sound like a fighter that had less 'x' factors that Douglas had before his win over Tyson when the stars aligned for him. This time it feels like Ruiz Jr was just the better Boxer and his fast hands and ability to take a shot being superior to Anthony Joshua gives him the edge.

Anthony Joshua does look like has employed more sparring and is looking to have improved his own Boxing skills which have been questioned by many even before the defeat to Ruiz Jr in June. However it took Wladimir Klitschko some time to erase his demons after his initial losses and I do think Joshua is going to have to ride out a storm in this one at some point.

Much will depend on how he handles that- does he bite down on the gum-shield or does the mind go back to Madison Square Garden?

I would love to see Anthony Joshua win.

Some of the casual fans and their overrating of his abilities can be annoying, but I like Joshua and I think he would be bringing some big fights back to the United Kingdom.

However I can't shake the feeling that the first loss was so devastating and Joshua really hasn't had a lot of time to make massive adjustments. Everything he is learning is not going to be in the muscle memory which means resorting to type when things get tough and that is where Ruiz Jr could take us back to New York City.

The added weight on the scales does raise some doubts about Ruiz Jr, but my head is overruling my heart and thinks the Champion retains via a stoppage. I don't think he is looking for this to go longer than last time which could give Anthony Joshua a chance too and I can't ignore the fact that he put Ruiz Jr down early.

With that in mind I have to say I like the price on seeing less than Nine Rounds in this one which is close to odds against. I hope Joshua is the one landing the big punches early, but like the Deontay Wilder-Luis Ortiz fight recently, my underlying feeling is that this one goes shorter than the first bout.

Chris Eubank Jr vs Matvey Korobov

The win over James DeGale should really have sparked something in Chris Eubank Jr, but to the surprise of everyone he has not been in action since then.

I am not sure who his matchmaker is, but picking Matvey Korobov for his return opponent looks a strange decision. Twelve months ago Korobov was a very unfortunate losing fighter when challenging Jermall Charlo for the Middleweight Title, but he was not so good in his most recent outing as he looks to get back into a position to rematch Charlo.

That is what Eubank Jr wants to do and I do think this is going to be a real learning fight for the British fighter. The southpaw he faces looks to have better Boxing skills, but Eubank Jr has determination and a high workrate which I think is going to be key for him on Saturday.

You do have to respect Korobov and what he is going to bring to the table, but I do think the sheer will of Eubank Jr may help him get over the line. I can see a situation where Korobov wins four out of six of the early Rounds, but Eubank Jr is able to drag him into a real fight which sees him wear down the 36 year old.

He might be behind going into the second half of the fight, but Eubank Jr will be looking to make a statement before he likely calls out Charlo for a World Title fight in 2020. I think Eubank Jr can do that with a late stoppage here as he puts his shots together late against an awkward opponent.

Jermall Charlo vs Dennis Hogan

The WBC Middleweight Title is on the line when Jermall Charlo takes in his second fight of 2019 and it is against a stubborn Dennis Hogan who many thought did beat Jaime Mungaia back in April.

You can't ignore the fact that Hogan is coming up in weight this time and I think the performance against Mungaia is perhaps a touch over-rated against a fighter that is struggling to make the 154 limit.

This time he is taking on someone who has plenty of power at 160 and I think Charlo is looking for a big performance after perhaps losing a touch of motivation in his last couple of fights. He is saying all of the right things ahead of this one and I do think Hogan is going to find it very hard to take the accumulation of shots he is likely going to have to if he wants to get to the cards this time.

I think that is a big ask for him though and I am looking for Charlo to wear down and break down the tough Irishman who fights out of Australia. It is the fact he is coming up in weight which I think leads to Hogan being stopped for the first time as he perhaps does not have the same resistance in this Division and Charlo is one of the bigger hitters out there at 160.

It won't be easy for the Texan, but I do think Jermall Charlo can find a late stoppage in this one.

MY PICKS: Mahammadrasul Majidov-Tom Little Under Six Rounds @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Filip Hrgovic to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Dillian Whyte to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.62 William Hill (2 Units)

Michael Hunter to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andy Ruiz Jr-Anthony Joshua Under Nine Rounds @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Chris Eubank Jr to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Jermall Charlo to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing Picks 2019: 24-47, + 1.43 Units (109 Units Staked, + 1.31% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (December 7-9)

Things have been a little frustrating over the last couple of days in amount of time I have had to write down my thoughts for the Weekend Premier League fixtures coming up.

Instead I am going to post my Picks for the week and then move onto the Fantasy Football portion of the thread as I lost some of the words I had written for the games to be played.

The only thing I can say is I have researched the selections made for the Picks this week. The Fantasy Football portion of the thread has been a little easier to manage as I managed to save it before things went a little haywire.


MY PICKS: Everton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (0 Units)
Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wolves-Draw Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
West Ham United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

December 2019/20: 5-4, + 1.22 Units (18 Units Staked, + 6.78% Yield)
November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 16

I have been warning for a while that the heavy fixture workload is going to mean there are some frustrating times ahead for Fantasy players and that was certainly the case for me during the week.

I did pick up 60 points which was above the average so am back on track in that regards, but the decision to remove Tammy Abraham in favour of Lys Mousset did not work out at all. One the Chelsea player did start and scored and assisted, while Mousset was left on the bench for Sheffield United.

You can't really call that, but I am not overly concerned with my Wild Card not too far away. I was irritated by the late news about Anthony Martial as I would have likely taken the Frenchman out instead of Abraham if I knew both were going to miss out, but at least Martial is back this week and that makes my Free Transfer much easier to deal with.

It is not going to be Martial like it might have been if he missed out this week and that is because I want to keep him around for the upcoming fixtures against Everton and Watford. Instead I do have the money in the bank to improve Andreas Pereira to bolster the midfield options and that is where the focus is going.

My two choices to potentially replace Pereira were Dele Alli and Christian Pulisic.

Dele Alli has been in fine form since Jose Mourinho arrived at Tottenham Hotspur and declared the England international as his main man. He has responded with goals and Alli is playing much further up the pitch than in the last days under Mauricio Pochettino and that has resulted in him also being the player with the most shots for Spurs in the Premier League since Mourinho took over.

Christian Pulisic has also been getting into some dangerous positions and he should have scored at least one and maybe two goals in the last four for Chelsea. However I think the young American is perhaps more likely to be involved in some squad rotation in the next couple of weeks considering Chelsea also have an important Champions League game to play and that is why I have leant towards Alli as my pick.

Chelsea have been creating more shots than Tottenham Hotspur and arguably have the better couple of games coming up, but when you are investing the kind of money that Alli and Pulisic are worth in the Fantasy game then you do have to take the player most likely to play back to back League games.

My GameWeek 16 Team

David De Gea- a lack of clean sheets and a trip to Manchester City coming up for my goalkeeper, but David De Gea could be involved in a saves bonus point.

Andrew Robertson- potential for the full backs at Liverpool to be rested ahead of a big game against Salzburg, but at the prices I have to start both.

Trent Alexander-Arnold- he is a yellow card away from a suspension, but Trent Alexander-Arnold was rested against Napoli and so I would expect him to continue at right back.

John Lundstram- an away game at Norwich City could see plenty of goals shared out. Sheffield United employ John Lundstram in midfield.

Caglar Soyuncu- the Leicester City clean sheets keep coming and they are looking for a fourth in a row away from home.

Sadio Mane (C)- both Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah were rested against Everton and Sadio Mane produced a star performance for Liverpool. In great form, might be difficult to expect him to be rested with that in mind.

Raheem Sterling- not scored against Manchester United in his career, but likely to have chances to do so.

Youri Tielemans- while the Leicester City form has remained strong, Youri Tielemans has had two quiet fantasy games in a row. Might be ready to make some noise against a vulnerable defence at Villa Park.

Dele Alli- the money saved from Tammy Abraham exiting my squad is spent on the in-form Tottenham Hotspur midfielder.

Lys Mousset- was rested during the week but expected to be back in the line up at Norwich City.

Danny Ings- continued his goal-scoring form for Southampton and the key man for them at St James' Park this weekend.

Bench- Michael McGovern, Fiyako Tomori (away game at Everton is not going to be easy), Anthony Martial (it sounds like the bench is about as good as it gets for the Frenchman this week), Xande Silva

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (December 5-7)

This is the time of the season when games come thick and fast and most of the top teams in the Premier League have to accept they will be playing twice a week through to the beginning of January.

If you want to be successful you have to find a way to negotiate these fixtures and keep the wins coming and so it is important for the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur to have confirmed their spots in the Knock Out Rounds of their European competitions.

Ok, United are not officially in the Last 16 draw, but barring something completely random happening on Tuesday, they should be through as Group Winners and Jose Mourinho has a chance to give some key players a rest after playing three Premier League games in an eight day period.

Those other clubs I have mentioned also have that opportunity, but Liverpool are the exception as they will be out of the Champions League if they were to lose on Wednesday and Sevilla beat Maribor. That means Jurgen Klopp has to take things very seriously, although Liverpool aren't due to play again until Sunday so there is time for him to prepare his side for the Merseyside derby after this Champions League Match Day 6 round of games are concluded.


You have to be careful with the final set of Group games as teams are likely to make changes with their futures in the competitions secured. You will begin to see some of the layers producing short odds on teams who 'must win' and you have to work out the value as much as possible on the prices that have been set and also keep a keen eye on the team news that comes out.


Bayern Munich v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Winning the Group would have been the aim for both Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain at the start of the Champions League, but that looks to be decided thanks to PSG beating Bayern Munich 3-0 in the French capital earlier in the section.

Paris Saint-Germain have continued hammering the other teams in the Group which means Bayern Munich have to win by at least a four goal margin if they are going to finish above their visitors. That looks a tall task even if you think of how Paris Saint-Germain were beaten 6-1 at Barcelona in the Second Round of this competition last season, especially as PSG are a much better team this time around.

It was also a day when everything seemed to conspire against them and the talk from the Bayern Munich camp sounds like they are already accepting a Group win is not likely. Even the talk of 'revenge' for the manner of the loss in Paris has been played down, but I do think Bayern Munich will want to prove they are still amongst the favourites to win the Champions League.

That means winning at home on Match Day 6 against another team considered amongst the best in Europe and I do think Bayern Munich can do that. The form has been improving and the injuries are beginning to clear up, while Paris Saint-Germain have not looked happy for a team who have been unbeaten in 21 games in all competitions before the 2-1 loss in Strasbourg.

Bayern Munich have won 17 of their last 19 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some issues on their travels in recent years. Being able to back the home team on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market looks a decent option here and I like Bayern Munich here.


Celtic v Anderlecht Pick: Both Celtic and Anderlecht are likely going to try and get on the front foot in this one and try and win the game and I do think there is a potential for an entertaining game at Celtic Park on Match Day 6.

Celtic have been strong domestically and they have given teams problems when they have arrived in Glasgow especially when they are on the level of Anderlecht. The 0-3 win in Brussels means Celtic hold the cards here, but Anderlecht have to be respected having won 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.

The problem for Anderlecht is they have to take risks at some point to get back into contention for a Europa League spot. Anything less than a win by at least a three goal margin is not going to be enough and I think that may play into the hands of Celtic who can exploit gaps on the counter attack.

Brendan Rodgers will stick to his principles and look to play attacking football too and these teams could mesh for a high-scoring game which the layers are taking no chances with. However I think the situation also means Celtic could find a way to win this fixture when Anderlecht get a little ragged trying to chase the goals they need.

That could see Celtic ultimately produce another win against Anderlecht and I will back them to do that. I will keep the stakes to a minimum knowing Celtic can afford a draw and a narrow defeat to go through too, but I will look for the Scottish Champions to win a game in which at least three goals are scored.


Manchester United v CSKA Moscow Pick: Some in the media clearly don't understand maths very well when talking about the problems Manchester United had after losing 1-0 at Basel, but the Champions League Group has been well in hand since winning the opening 4 games in this section.

It would be a huge turn of events to prevent Manchester United from winning the Group let along being knocked out of the Champions League and I don't think the players are feeling that much pressure. Even Jose Mourinho is looking to freshen up the starting eleven knowing a narrow loss would be ok for Manchester United to win the Group and get ready for the Champions League Last 16 draw next week.

With the way Manchester United have been playing, there is enough momentum to help them win this game on Tuesday and keep things on a positive track ahead of the Manchester derby on Sunday. I expect a strong team to still take to the field and it is a big task for CSKA Moscow to make it 5 straight away Champions League wins.

Prior to this season they had not been the best travellers in this competition and CSKA Moscow are under more pressure to get forward and secure a result. They will likely need to win at Old Trafford to have a chance of going through to the Last 16, but that may also lead to spaces opening up as they chase the game.

Manchester United have been very strong at Old Trafford as they put their 39 game unbeaten run on the line and they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions. With 7 wins in 9 European home games I fancy Manchester United will earn the victory in this one too and I can see a counter attacking goal putting this to bed later in the contest.

That could help Manchester United cover the Asian Handicap in this one and I will back them to do so.


Liverpool v Spartak Moscow Pick: There is some pressure on Liverpool to make sure they win the Group or likely guarantee a really difficult Last 16 tie in the Champions League. However they can't be too desperate as a defeat would likely see them knocked out of the competition and entering the Europa League.

Jurgen Klopp only really has one way he wants to see his side play football so I would expect Liverpool to get forward and try and take the game away from Spartak Moscow in the first half hour at Anfield. At some point Spartak Moscow will have to chase this game too knowing they need a win to get through to the Last 16 themselves and I think it will play into the Liverpool hands.

This is a side who have played better at home when it comes to defensive schemes and most Liverpool fans would expect to have a much better day in the final third than when these teams met in Russia. On that day Liverpool could have won easily but missed a host of chances in the 1-1 draw, but they look a little stronger all around now and I don't think those opportunities go begging in the same way.

Spartak Moscow have also been playing better, but they have yet to really turn it on in the Champions League outside of the 5-1 home win over Sevilla. Draws in both games against Maribor have hurt Spartak Moscow and they will have to be a lot better to deal with Liverpool at Anfield.

All in all it feels like a game that Liverpool will dominate early and then pick Spartak Moscow off as the Russian side are forced to come forward. I expect that will lead to a fairly comfortable Liverpool win on the night and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Manchester City Pick: You do have to take Pep Guardiola's comments seriously about wanting to play a strong team that can win the game in this final Champions League Group game, but it would be a big surprise if changes aren't made to keep the starting eleven fresh. There is a big game coming up on Sunday in the Premier League and Manchester City have already Qualified for the Last 16 so failing to make changes would be a real surprise.

Even with that in mind, Manchester City have enough quality to cause problems for Shakhtar Donetsk who are under more pressure knowing a win leaves them vulnerable to Napoli in 3rd place. They have performed much better at 'home' in recent European games than on their travels which will give Shakhtar Donetsk confidence of securing a result, but they will have to be aware of this Manchester City team.

Recent form has not been the best but Manchester City keep finding ways to win games and the players coming in will want to show the manager they are capable of being used in big Premier League games too.

On the other hand I would expect Shakhtar Donetsk to cause problems too like they did at the Etihad Stadium earlier in the Group. Stronger performances at home will give them confidence and I can see an attacking game develop with both sides more comfortable trying to score goals.

The 1-1 result is the one that scares me as both teams could settle for that with it being enough for Shakhtar Donetsk to go through and Manchester City will want to keep some energy in check for the big game at Old Trafford on Sunday. An early goal may change the mindset though and force the two teams to play with more attacking intent than you may think in this situation and I do think the teams can combine for at least three goals in this one.

It's a decent price when you think how Manchester City games have developed of late, but some may want a small interest in the 1-1 correct scoreline as a saver.


Slavia Prague v Astana Pick: The final round of Europa League and Champions League games can be tough to call with managers preparing their players for busy times of the season.

In this one both Slavia Prague and Astana have everything to play for with the winner through to the Last 32 while the home team have the benefit of keeping the draw on their side. I do think Slavia Prague can produce the goods to work their way out of the Group, but my concern is that they don't need to win the game.

Both wins they have earned have come against Maccabi Tel-Aviv who have struggled in the Group, but Astana have not been the best travellers in European competition which should make the difference here.

With that in mind the home team have to be worth having a small interest in as they can perhaps catch Astana chasing the game in the second half. Slavia Prague have a decent recent record and I think they can find some spaces to exploit as their visitors commit more men forward to try and get through to the next Round themselves.


Villarreal v Maccabi Tel-Aviv Pick: This Group is already decided as far as Villarreal and Maccabi Tel-Aviv are concerned and there are likely to be some changes in the home starting eleven with Barcelona to come in three days time.

That should mean there are a few issues for Villarreal to negotiate as they are perhaps trying to work out the chemistry to put themselves in a position to win this game. They could be helped by the struggles Maccabi Tel-Aviv have been having in the Group and I do think Villarreal are going to be able to secure yet another win in the section.

Villarreal have been a mixed bag in their recent home Europa League games, but I think they can show they are the superior team and they could be worth a small interest to win by a couple of goals on the day.

It is odds against for that to happen, but Villarreal will have seen the way Maccabi Tel-Aviv have struggled away from home in this Group. Both losses have come by at least a two goal margin and I will look for Villarreal to do enough to become the latest to beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv by that margin.


Marseille v Salzburg Pick: There is more on the line for Marseille than Salzburg on Match Day 6 so you have to expect the team line up to indicate that as the home team look for the point which will send through to the Last 32. Both teams have big domestic action to look forward to on Sunday, but Marseille are at home compared with Salzburg who are travelling and that can play a part in the selections of the two managers too.

It won't be an easy game for Marseille who are facing a Salzburg team who have yet to lose in the Group, but Marseille have been much better at home.

I am looking for Marseille to just use the extra motivation in this fixture to lead them to a win and I think they can be backed for a small interest to beat Salzburg by a couple of goals on the night. Salzburg have already won the Group and they are in a real battle for top spot in Austria, while Marseille are hosting Saint-Etienne in a few days time which should mean they can put in the big effort in this Europa League game as well as the home game in the French League on Sunday.

Marseille have won 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap on Thursday.


Real Sociedad v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Neither Real Sociedad or Zenit St Petersburg can point to any significant form in recent weeks with the majority of Zenit's better performances coming at home while Real Sociedad have struggled in general.

There is plenty on the line for both clubs on Thursday with top spot up for grabs and I think Real Sociedad can use home advantage to earn that.

As poor as the recent results have been, Real Sociedad are a side that have scored plenty of goals and I am not sure Zenit St Petersburg can exploit their defensive issues.

I wouldn't invest a lot in this with both teams through and perhaps more interested in their League form rather than putting too much into this fixture. However I do think finishing with a Seed for the Last 32 draw is hard to ignore and I believe Real Sociedad can get the better of a Zenit St Petersburg side who have just hit the wall on their travels in recent weeks.

At odds against it has to be worth a small interest in backing Real Sociedad to win.


Zorya v Athletic Bilbao Pick: There are a few fixtures around the Europa League where the two teams competing with one another are in direct conflict for a place in the Last 32. This is one of those with Zorya capable of finishing above Athletic Bilbao with a victory, while the Spanish club just need a result to ensure they are playing European Football after Christmas.

There is much on the line, but Athletic Bilbao look very short when you think of how they have performed in recent weeks. They are also not a side that can be backed with a lot of confidence on their travels in the Europa League having won 1 of their last 8 away games and even that came after trailing 2-0.

Zorya have not exactly been lighting things up themselves though and I think Athletic Bilbao should be able to show they are the superior team. It was Zorya who won 0-1 in Bilbao, but that should only focus the Athletic Bilbao players who know a draw would be good enough to go through.

I have to say Athletic Bilbao look plenty short when you think of the recent form and lack of wins away from home. This can't be a confident side, but I think they will have enough to earn the point they need and backing the draw for a small interest looks the way to go.

The situation is a concern because Zorya will need to chase the game if they are behind or level with time ticking down and that could leave Athletic Bilbao with spaces to exploit. However I am not sure the Basque club are in a position to really take advantage or playing with the confidence to exploit any defensive lapses, and I will take a small interest in the draw.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celtic & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Slavia Prague @ 1.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Villarreal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marseille - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Real Sociedad @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Zorya-Athletic Bilbao Draw @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)