It's been going on for years and now the media want to pull back and take no responsibility for the pretty crappy scenes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.
How long has it been obvious the media have had it in for Sterling and how long must people outside of that profession note the racial undertones to the criticism? I've tweeted on at least two previous occasions that the media are a joke for the way they disparage Sterling and I've noted some of the stories that seem to be led by the fact he is a young, black player and he, among others, are held to a standard that doesn't seem to apply to young, white players.
Others have been criticised and it seems those are based around the colour of the skin- I have written down my disgust at Mark Lawrenson's apparent disregard for Darren Moore being given the WBA permanent manager's job back in April, yet I don't hear the same for Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard who have been given similar breaks and arguably with less experience Moore had at managing at the highest level.
Again that felt more about Darren Moore being an inexperienced, black manager and being held to a higher standard than inexperienced, white managers tend to be.
The media can now look to put their hands up and try and act like it has nothing to do with them that Sterling was targeted for abuse, but they have put him in that position. It's no point highlighting his positive aspects now when they have spent years breaking down his character and portraying an image for people to consume about Sterling, people who have never met him.
I've got no personal affiliation with Sterling- he has played for the two clubs I dislike the most in the Premier League. However I am also very aware of the issues ethnic minorities face in the UK and for a long time I think Sterling has taken the brunt of the abuse that typically middle class, white journalists have had for him.
It's been nothing short of a bullying campaign and one that has enabled those racist idiots at Chelsea to feel they can use some of the rubbish they did and feel they will be able to get away with it in a Stadium of 40,000 people.
An utter disgrace to say the least.
This is an issue that will soon be swept under the carpet by those journalists who are faking outrage at the moment and nothing will be resolved. The football will also move on and this week we have the final round robin of Group matches in both the Champions League and Europa League.
A number of teams have already secured passage to the Knock Out Rounds of those competitions, but order of places are still up for grabs and others still have work to do.
Barcelona, Porto and Real Madrid are the only guaranteed Group Winners, but the likes of Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain may be favoured to join them. It makes finishing 2nd in a Group really tough considering the kind of Last 16 that likely awaits and it would be something of a surprise if the eventual Champions League Winners are not from that list of eight teams provided.
Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool would likely have something to say about that, but the former have blown their chance to win the Group ahead of Atletico Madrid and need a huge favour from Club Brugge to do that, while the latter is not guaranteed of making the Last 16 at all.
It is obvious that Porto would be the 'plumb' draw for any Runner Up, but we will see how it all shakes up on Tuesday and Wednesday before the Last 16 draw is made next Monday.
The Europa League Group Stage is also concluded on Thursday and it is a big day for Scottish Football as both Celtic and Rangers look to make it through to the Last 32. Celtic are more likely to do that than Rangers, but I wouldn't rule out the latter either as they look to join Arsenal and Chelsea who have already made it through the Group.
Like the Champions League, Group Winners and Runners Up are separated and drawn together, but again we will see how it shakes up before those Last 32 ties are paired together for February 2019.
Schalke v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: The standings are already in place in this Group with Porto going through as the Winners and Schalke finishing up as Runners Up. That can make it very difficult to predict how a dead rubber is going to go, but Lokomotiv Moscow do head to Germany with something to play for.
The Russian Champions looked an uneasy top Seed when the draw for the Champions League was made and it has proven to be the case as they are bottom of the section. Now they need to win in Germany and hope Galatasaray are not able to beat Porto at home, but their own part is not going to be easy for Lokomotiv Moscow.
The side have been beaten comfortably in both home games played and Schalke have to be thinking about bouncing back immediately after losing to Borussia Dortmund here in the derby this past weekend. Prior to that result Schalke had won 3 in a row at home and they score plenty of goals which makes them very dangerous.
A lack of motivation has to be a concern for home backers, but Schalke have seen their price drop over the last couple of days and I do want to be behind them here too. I think that lack of motivation has been factored into the prices and Schalke are a strong home team who may be able to exploit gaps if Lokomotiv Moscow have to chase the game.
With the goals being scored by Schalke in front of their own fans, I think the Bundesliga club can get the better of Lokomotiv Moscow who can head into their Winter Break ready to focus on their return to domestic matters in the new calendar year.
Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid Pick: A couple of years ago Club Brugge really struggled when they earned their place in the Champions League Group Stage but they are far better this time around. In what was a tougher Group, Club Brugge have really found some positive results and the draw at Borussia Dortmund underlined the progress they have made.
A spot in the Europa League has already been earned, but there will still be much excitement at hosting a team like Atletico Madrid who have been amongst the best in Europe in recent years.
Club Brugge can play spoiler for Atletico Madrid too as their visitors need to win here to secure top spot in this Group. Anything less will give Borussia Dortmund the chance to finish above them in the section and so there is some real pressure on Diego Simeone's men who have not been at their best away from home this season.
With the Champions League Final to be hosted in their Stadium, Atletico Madrid will be keen to earn an 'easier' Last 16 tie which will come as Group Winners. Winning here won't be easy and Club Brugge gave Atletico Madrid something to think about in the reverse fixture in the Group, but you have to really believe the Spanish club are going to dig down deep and earn the result they need.
I can't imagine it being a really high-scoring game so backing Atletico Madrid to win a fixture featuring no more than three goals is the call.
Crvena Zvezda v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Having failed to beat Liverpool and Napoli twice in this Group, Paris Saint-Germain left themselves in a pressurised position in a competition they are desperate to succeed in. The home win over Liverpool on Match Day 5 was huge for them as they now control their own destiny and a win over Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade will be enough to move through to the Last 16.
This won't be a walkover for Paris Saint-Germain as both Napoli and Liverpool have failed to win here. A draw would be complicated for PSG if Liverpool are able to beat Napoli on the same night so the focus has to be a win in Belgrade and potentially winning the Group too.
As a Champions League favourite you have to expect Paris Saint-Germain are able to win here. Crvena Zvezda frustrated Napoli on Match Day 1, but the Italians had a host of chances in that one and PSG have players who are very capable in front of goal.
The Liverpool defeat here complicates the thinking, but I think they were very poor on the night and made it easy for their hosts. If Paris Saint-Germain play as poorly as Liverpool did they deserve to go out of the Champions League, but I think the players are focused having been in a very difficult position a couple of weeks ago and I don't think they let this opportunity slip through their hands.
The Asian Handicap is a big one considering the results Crvena Zvezda have had at home in this Group, but Paris Saint-Germain are the kind of team who can put the lesser lights to the sword as they do back home in France. The first goal will be critical, but if PSG can get that in the first half hour of this game I think they can make it a routine win on the night and move into the Last 16 as Group Winners as long as Napoli have not won at Anfield.
Inter Milan v PSV Eindhoven Pick: There will be some eyes on the game being played at the Nou Camp between Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur, but Inter Milan have to make sure they do all they can to be put into a position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League.
It all means focusing on the fixture to be played at the San Siro on Tuesday as the Champions League Group Stage comes to a close. At the moment Inter Milan are behind Tottenham Hotspur on the head to head, but bettering the score Spurs earn at the Nou Camp will mean Inter Milan overtake them and they have to believe that Barcelona won't lose at home at the very least.
That match in Spain is going to be close and I think Tottenham Hotspur will have their chances, but Inter Milan won't worry too much about that when this fixture kicks off. Instead Inter Milan have to make sure they don't offer PSV Eindhoven any encouragement and perhaps put them in a position where the motivation is taken out of the visitors who are already out of European competition until July 2019 at the earliest.
Inter Milan have been very strong at home so you can see why they are favoured to win this game and I do think they will be able to do that. PSV Eindhoven have to be respected because they have not been blown away in the Champions League despite the obvious raise in quality they are facing, but it has been evident that PSV Eindhoven are simply not quite good enough at this level.
The Dutch Champions are not the best travellers and the attention should be on domestic matters where Ajax have cut the gap between the teams. That potential shift in focus should mean Inter Milan can continue what has been very strong form at home and I think this will be a rare occasion where the Nerazzurri can not only win at the San Siro, but win by a comfortable margin on the night.
All eyes will then shift to Barcelona to see if Tottenham Hotspur have secured the Runners Up spot or not, but for this game I think Inter Milan do their side of the equation as they look to sneak into the Second Round.
Liverpool v Napoli Pick: If someone had said to Jurgen Klopp a win over Napoli at home on Match Day 6 of the Champions League Group Stage would be enough to earn a Last 16 berth I think he would have signed up for it when the draw was made in August. However it is the manner of the way Liverpool have gotten here that will have hurt the manager and now they have a pressurised situation in December that they would have preferred to avoid.
Even then you would think Liverpool are going to come into this one with plenty of confidence having won 7 of their last 9 home Champions League games since August 2017. They have beaten the likes of Manchester City, Roma and Paris Saint-Germain here and scored plenty of goals in those wins, while Liverpool just crushed Bournemouth in the Premier League to move to the top of their domestic League table.
There is no doubt that Liverpool will feel they can score goals against Napoli, but the Italian side should not be overawed by the occasion having played some big games themselves in recent years. Domestically they have improved, but Carlo Ancelotti was brought in as manager to improve Napoli in Europe and being unbeaten through five games in this Group is a real achievement.
Making it six will be enough to make the Last 16, but Napoli have not been the best recent travellers in the Champions League. They are also in a difficult position of trying to work out of they should stick or twist knowing a draw is enough, but I do believe their best policy may be to try and get on the front foot and put their hosts under some pressure.
For all the good defensive work in the Premier League, Liverpool have looked more vulnerable in the Champions League so Napoli should have chances. They have scored at least twice in 4 consecutive away games including in the 2-2 draw at Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli have dangerous customers in the final third that deserve plenty of respect.
However there are some defensive vulnerabilities about Napoli too having conceded at least twice at Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain. It points to an entertaining game at Anfield where the goals could flow as it feels one team will always be chasing something in this fixture.
The first goal is going to be crucial to the outcome of this one and I think both teams will be able to create chances against the other with both expecting to find the net. My initial lean was Liverpool would have too much for Napoli and win this game, but a narrow win in which Napoli score won't be enough so I can see a situation develop where spaces are left by either side as they chase the result they need.
One aspect could change things and that is if there is news Paris Saint-Germain are losing by a wide margin in Serbia. In that case a narrow Liverpool win might suit both these teams involved, but that's a long way away in this match and I am expecting plenty of attacking football to be the order of the day.
Backing at least four goals to be shared out is the call, a play that would have been a victor in 6 of the last 9 Champions League games played at Anfield including both played this season. It was also the outcome of Napoli's trip to Paris Saint-Germain and is an appealing enough price for this important final Group game for the two teams involved.
Monaco v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Match Day 6 can be a tough time to get a read on teams simply as some of the ambitions of the Group would have been completed and managers may choose to rest players ahead of important domestic games.
I am not sure that will be the case in this one though.
Monaco have had a week to prepare for this fixture after seeing their derby game with Nice postponed due to the big protests going on around France over the last couple of weeks. A number of League games were postponed with those protests in mind so Thierry Henry may choose to pick a strong starting eleven to build on the momentum of winning their last League game seven days ago.
That could happen despite Monaco being knocked out of European competition already, but Henry is trying to pick up the confidence of the players for what looks like being a season long struggle to avoid relegation. The recent home is not that inspiring though and Monaco have lost 6 straight Champions League games here as they have struggled defensively to contain the quality of teams they face.
It is certainly a quality team heading to Monaco as Borussia Dortmund still have ambitions of winning this Group despite losing control of the section following a goalless home draw with Club Brugge a couple of weeks ago. For the most part Borussia Dortmund have not put a foot wrong this season which sees them open up a decent lead at the top of the Bundesliga as well as secure a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League.
Borussia Dortmund will still want to win the Group though and they will know a win could be good enough if Atletico Madrid fail to win in Brugge. It isn't out of the question that happens so I believe Dortmund will be motivated to perform here and earn a measure of revenge for the loss in the Champions League Quarter Final two seasons ago.
The German side do have plenty of goals in the side and should be able to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Monaco and I will back Borussia Dortmund to win here. They have only won 1 of their last 8 away Champions League games, and Borussia Dortmund have only scored 1 goal in 2 away Group games, but Monaco concede goals for fun and I think the visitors can be backed to win a game featuring two or more goals.
Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow Pick: The first four months of the 2018/19 season have been erratic for Real Madrid to say the least, but they have won four games in a row heading into Match Day 6. Qualification for the Last 16 of the Champions League has already been earned, and Real Madrid have already won the Group, but they will want to keep the momentum going before trying to win more silverware in the calendar year next week in the World Club Championship.
Revenge may be on the minds of the players after Real Madrid were beaten by CSKA Moscow in the reverse fixture in this Group. A strong team has been predicted to start this game despite Real Madrid being back in League action on Saturday and I think they should have too much for their visitors.
CSKA Moscow have not been the worst travellers in European competition over the last couple of seasons, but they are in a difficult position of needing to better the Viktoria Plzen result if they are going to drop into the Europa League. The shocking home loss to the Czech side has put CSKA Moscow in this position and I think they may need goals in this one which also leaves them vulnerable at the back.
This is not the Real Madrid of a few months ago and they are capable of throwing in a really poor performance, but they have won 4 straight home games in all competitions and this remains a very tough place to play. With their visitors likely having to chase the game at some point, Real Madrid can produce a comfortable victory as they underline their position as Group Winners and put the Champions League aside for a couple of months.
Viktoria Plzen v Roma Pick: There will be some eyes on the other game in this Group and seeing how CSKA Moscow are getting on, but Viktoria Plzen control their own destiny and will believe a point is good enough to definitely move into the Europa League. Settling for a point too early is not really the way for them though and instead I would expect Viktoria Plzen to at least try and trouble a Roma team who are through to the Champions League Last 16 and have already been assured of finishing behind Real Madrid.
The visitors are not in the best form of late which should encourage Viktoria Plzen all the more, but they have also found the top two teams in this Group very tough opponents already.
Closing that quality gap won't be easy for Viktoria Plzen, but at least playing at home gives them a chance to try.
Roma are a very capable team in front of goal so they are dangerous, but recent games have seen them look a little vulnerable at the back too and I can see a situation where both teams score. The point might be enough for the home team and Roma won't have a real motivation to get forward and chase a late winner so the 1-1 result concerns me, although I feel an early goal could really open this up to be a good game of football and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.
Benfica v AEK Athens Pick: Last season Benfica made history by becoming the first top Seed in the Champions League Group Stage to fail to earn a point. This season they have improved a little bit, but they must be disappointed to already be out of contention for a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League before Match Day 6, although Benfica will have the benefit of knowing they are going to be playing European Football after Christmas in the 2018/19 season.
I don't think it is a stretch to say Benfica have fallen off the standards they had been setting in recent years. Even with that in mind I would have thought they would have been closer to Ajax in this Group, but the Dutch side look much improved as they confirmed a spot in the Last 16 by picking up 4 points in the double header with Benfica.
This is yet another dead rubber in the Champions League this week but I still think Benfica are going to be far too strong for an AEK Athens team who have struggled at this level. The Greek side have lost all five games they have played in the Champions League and they have conceded at least two goals in each of those games and I think it makes it very difficult to pick up points when you are defensively vulnerable like that.
AEK Athens have been comfortably beaten in both away games in this Group and I think Benfica can make that three from three. Benfica are not back in action until Sunday so they can give this a real go even though they have nothing to really play for, and I think the home team will be able to win by a couple of goals on the night.
Manchester City v Hoffenheim Pick: Last season Manchester City lost their first Premier League game of the season in January and they followed that up with 6 wins from 7 games in all competitions to maintain the momentum they had built up. Pep Guardiola will be looking for a similar reaction in the busy December calendar after the defeat at Stamford Bridge on Saturday although he will also be hoping for some reinforcements with the squad looking a little stretched at the moment.
Manchester City still need a point to secure top spot in the Group after the 2-2 draw in Lyon on Match Day 5, but I would still expect some rotations to be used by the manager during this time of the season. Big games are coming thick and fast for Manchester City, but they can bring in the likes of Danilo, Nicolas Otamendi, Vincent Kompany, Ilkay Gundogan and Gabriel Jesus for this one which looks to be coming too soon for Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero.
Whichever starting eleven is picked, Manchester City can't expect to get an easy ride from Hoffenheim even if their visitors have only earned 3 points from a possible 15 in the Group.
It's not for a lack of goals that they have not been able to secure more points than they have. Hoffenheim have scored 10 goals in their 5 Champions League games and only 1 of their 5 games have seen them score fewer than two goals. Hoffenheim have hit at least two goals in 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions including in both Champions League Group games, but defensively they can be erratic to say the least and that is the main reason Hoffenheim have not been able to produce more wins than they have.
They will go to the Etihad Stadium and have a go at Manchester City, but that does leave Hoffenheim vulnerable to the counter attack and I think this is a fixture that is likely going to produce chances and goals. The attacking threat posed by Hoffenheim makes it hard to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap even if I believe they have a positive reaction to the defeat on Saturday, but there is a market that has stood out.
With the need for at least one more point to win this Group, I expect Manchester City play a strong team and one capable of winning this game. I do think Hoffenheim will play a part and goals have flowed in the Bundesliga club's recent away games thanks to a strong attack and a very poor defence.
5 of the last 6 Manchester City home games have featured at least four goals shared out and that number of goals being scored has been a regular occurrence in this Group. With that in mind I think Manchester City can be backed to win this one and with four goals to be shared out on the evening.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon Pick: Group F of the Champions League has been about the most exciting in terms of close games and plenty of goals being scored. On Match Day 6 it is the turn of Shakhtar Donetsk and Lyon to face off with a place in the Champions League Last 16 on the line when they meet in the Ukraine.
The Lyon games in particular have been amazing to watch with a real attacking threat mixed in with defensive vulnerabilities. For a team to take 4 points from Manchester City and still need a result to make it out of this Group is a huge surprise, but shows Lyon you can't just expect to out-score teams at this level.
I don't think the policy will have changed though and Lyon will head to Shakhtar Donetsk with goals on their mind having scored at least two goals in all 5 Group games. However the last 4 have all ended in draws since the surprising 1-2 win at the Etihad Stadium and those draws for Lyon read 2-2, 3-3, 2-2, 2-2.
In the home game with Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon came from 0-2 down to earn the 2-2 draw and they know another draw here will be enough to make it through to the Last 16. However the Ukrainian Champions are very good at home and they will believe their own attacking capabilities can expose the defensive issues Lyon have had in the Champions League.
Like Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk have seen 4 of their 5 Group games feature at least four goals. The difference between the teams has been the two beatings Shakhtar Donetsk have absorbed against Manchester City and that is why they are trailing Lyon in this Group.
In the other 3 games in the Group, Shakhtar Donetsk have scored at least two goals and conceded at least two goals and I am not surprised the layers are expecting goals. It can be colder at this time of the year in the Ukraine, but these two teams are capable of warming things up in an entertaining game where both will likely be chasing goals at some point.
The defending has not matched the attacking capabilities shown and I think this will be another game in the Group featuring at least four goals.
MY PICKS: Schalke @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Inter Milan - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool-Napoli Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Viktoria Plzen-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benfica - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Lyon Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Valencia-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label Match Day 6. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Match Day 6. Show all posts
Tuesday, 11 December 2018
Tuesday, 5 December 2017
Midweek Football Picks 2017 (December 5-7)
This is the time of the season when games come thick and fast and most of the top teams in the Premier League have to accept they will be playing twice a week through to the beginning of January.
If you want to be successful you have to find a way to negotiate these fixtures and keep the wins coming and so it is important for the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur to have confirmed their spots in the Knock Out Rounds of their European competitions.
Ok, United are not officially in the Last 16 draw, but barring something completely random happening on Tuesday, they should be through as Group Winners and Jose Mourinho has a chance to give some key players a rest after playing three Premier League games in an eight day period.
Those other clubs I have mentioned also have that opportunity, but Liverpool are the exception as they will be out of the Champions League if they were to lose on Wednesday and Sevilla beat Maribor. That means Jurgen Klopp has to take things very seriously, although Liverpool aren't due to play again until Sunday so there is time for him to prepare his side for the Merseyside derby after this Champions League Match Day 6 round of games are concluded.
You have to be careful with the final set of Group games as teams are likely to make changes with their futures in the competitions secured. You will begin to see some of the layers producing short odds on teams who 'must win' and you have to work out the value as much as possible on the prices that have been set and also keep a keen eye on the team news that comes out.
Bayern Munich v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Winning the Group would have been the aim for both Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain at the start of the Champions League, but that looks to be decided thanks to PSG beating Bayern Munich 3-0 in the French capital earlier in the section.
Paris Saint-Germain have continued hammering the other teams in the Group which means Bayern Munich have to win by at least a four goal margin if they are going to finish above their visitors. That looks a tall task even if you think of how Paris Saint-Germain were beaten 6-1 at Barcelona in the Second Round of this competition last season, especially as PSG are a much better team this time around.
It was also a day when everything seemed to conspire against them and the talk from the Bayern Munich camp sounds like they are already accepting a Group win is not likely. Even the talk of 'revenge' for the manner of the loss in Paris has been played down, but I do think Bayern Munich will want to prove they are still amongst the favourites to win the Champions League.
That means winning at home on Match Day 6 against another team considered amongst the best in Europe and I do think Bayern Munich can do that. The form has been improving and the injuries are beginning to clear up, while Paris Saint-Germain have not looked happy for a team who have been unbeaten in 21 games in all competitions before the 2-1 loss in Strasbourg.
Bayern Munich have won 17 of their last 19 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some issues on their travels in recent years. Being able to back the home team on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market looks a decent option here and I like Bayern Munich here.
Celtic v Anderlecht Pick: Both Celtic and Anderlecht are likely going to try and get on the front foot in this one and try and win the game and I do think there is a potential for an entertaining game at Celtic Park on Match Day 6.
Celtic have been strong domestically and they have given teams problems when they have arrived in Glasgow especially when they are on the level of Anderlecht. The 0-3 win in Brussels means Celtic hold the cards here, but Anderlecht have to be respected having won 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.
The problem for Anderlecht is they have to take risks at some point to get back into contention for a Europa League spot. Anything less than a win by at least a three goal margin is not going to be enough and I think that may play into the hands of Celtic who can exploit gaps on the counter attack.
Brendan Rodgers will stick to his principles and look to play attacking football too and these teams could mesh for a high-scoring game which the layers are taking no chances with. However I think the situation also means Celtic could find a way to win this fixture when Anderlecht get a little ragged trying to chase the goals they need.
That could see Celtic ultimately produce another win against Anderlecht and I will back them to do that. I will keep the stakes to a minimum knowing Celtic can afford a draw and a narrow defeat to go through too, but I will look for the Scottish Champions to win a game in which at least three goals are scored.
Manchester United v CSKA Moscow Pick: Some in the media clearly don't understand maths very well when talking about the problems Manchester United had after losing 1-0 at Basel, but the Champions League Group has been well in hand since winning the opening 4 games in this section.
It would be a huge turn of events to prevent Manchester United from winning the Group let along being knocked out of the Champions League and I don't think the players are feeling that much pressure. Even Jose Mourinho is looking to freshen up the starting eleven knowing a narrow loss would be ok for Manchester United to win the Group and get ready for the Champions League Last 16 draw next week.
With the way Manchester United have been playing, there is enough momentum to help them win this game on Tuesday and keep things on a positive track ahead of the Manchester derby on Sunday. I expect a strong team to still take to the field and it is a big task for CSKA Moscow to make it 5 straight away Champions League wins.
Prior to this season they had not been the best travellers in this competition and CSKA Moscow are under more pressure to get forward and secure a result. They will likely need to win at Old Trafford to have a chance of going through to the Last 16, but that may also lead to spaces opening up as they chase the game.
Manchester United have been very strong at Old Trafford as they put their 39 game unbeaten run on the line and they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions. With 7 wins in 9 European home games I fancy Manchester United will earn the victory in this one too and I can see a counter attacking goal putting this to bed later in the contest.
That could help Manchester United cover the Asian Handicap in this one and I will back them to do so.
Liverpool v Spartak Moscow Pick: There is some pressure on Liverpool to make sure they win the Group or likely guarantee a really difficult Last 16 tie in the Champions League. However they can't be too desperate as a defeat would likely see them knocked out of the competition and entering the Europa League.
Jurgen Klopp only really has one way he wants to see his side play football so I would expect Liverpool to get forward and try and take the game away from Spartak Moscow in the first half hour at Anfield. At some point Spartak Moscow will have to chase this game too knowing they need a win to get through to the Last 16 themselves and I think it will play into the Liverpool hands.
This is a side who have played better at home when it comes to defensive schemes and most Liverpool fans would expect to have a much better day in the final third than when these teams met in Russia. On that day Liverpool could have won easily but missed a host of chances in the 1-1 draw, but they look a little stronger all around now and I don't think those opportunities go begging in the same way.
Spartak Moscow have also been playing better, but they have yet to really turn it on in the Champions League outside of the 5-1 home win over Sevilla. Draws in both games against Maribor have hurt Spartak Moscow and they will have to be a lot better to deal with Liverpool at Anfield.
All in all it feels like a game that Liverpool will dominate early and then pick Spartak Moscow off as the Russian side are forced to come forward. I expect that will lead to a fairly comfortable Liverpool win on the night and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Manchester City Pick: You do have to take Pep Guardiola's comments seriously about wanting to play a strong team that can win the game in this final Champions League Group game, but it would be a big surprise if changes aren't made to keep the starting eleven fresh. There is a big game coming up on Sunday in the Premier League and Manchester City have already Qualified for the Last 16 so failing to make changes would be a real surprise.
Even with that in mind, Manchester City have enough quality to cause problems for Shakhtar Donetsk who are under more pressure knowing a win leaves them vulnerable to Napoli in 3rd place. They have performed much better at 'home' in recent European games than on their travels which will give Shakhtar Donetsk confidence of securing a result, but they will have to be aware of this Manchester City team.
Recent form has not been the best but Manchester City keep finding ways to win games and the players coming in will want to show the manager they are capable of being used in big Premier League games too.
On the other hand I would expect Shakhtar Donetsk to cause problems too like they did at the Etihad Stadium earlier in the Group. Stronger performances at home will give them confidence and I can see an attacking game develop with both sides more comfortable trying to score goals.
The 1-1 result is the one that scares me as both teams could settle for that with it being enough for Shakhtar Donetsk to go through and Manchester City will want to keep some energy in check for the big game at Old Trafford on Sunday. An early goal may change the mindset though and force the two teams to play with more attacking intent than you may think in this situation and I do think the teams can combine for at least three goals in this one.
It's a decent price when you think how Manchester City games have developed of late, but some may want a small interest in the 1-1 correct scoreline as a saver.
Slavia Prague v Astana Pick: The final round of Europa League and Champions League games can be tough to call with managers preparing their players for busy times of the season.
In this one both Slavia Prague and Astana have everything to play for with the winner through to the Last 32 while the home team have the benefit of keeping the draw on their side. I do think Slavia Prague can produce the goods to work their way out of the Group, but my concern is that they don't need to win the game.
Both wins they have earned have come against Maccabi Tel-Aviv who have struggled in the Group, but Astana have not been the best travellers in European competition which should make the difference here.
With that in mind the home team have to be worth having a small interest in as they can perhaps catch Astana chasing the game in the second half. Slavia Prague have a decent recent record and I think they can find some spaces to exploit as their visitors commit more men forward to try and get through to the next Round themselves.
Villarreal v Maccabi Tel-Aviv Pick: This Group is already decided as far as Villarreal and Maccabi Tel-Aviv are concerned and there are likely to be some changes in the home starting eleven with Barcelona to come in three days time.
That should mean there are a few issues for Villarreal to negotiate as they are perhaps trying to work out the chemistry to put themselves in a position to win this game. They could be helped by the struggles Maccabi Tel-Aviv have been having in the Group and I do think Villarreal are going to be able to secure yet another win in the section.
Villarreal have been a mixed bag in their recent home Europa League games, but I think they can show they are the superior team and they could be worth a small interest to win by a couple of goals on the day.
It is odds against for that to happen, but Villarreal will have seen the way Maccabi Tel-Aviv have struggled away from home in this Group. Both losses have come by at least a two goal margin and I will look for Villarreal to do enough to become the latest to beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv by that margin.
Marseille v Salzburg Pick: There is more on the line for Marseille than Salzburg on Match Day 6 so you have to expect the team line up to indicate that as the home team look for the point which will send through to the Last 32. Both teams have big domestic action to look forward to on Sunday, but Marseille are at home compared with Salzburg who are travelling and that can play a part in the selections of the two managers too.
It won't be an easy game for Marseille who are facing a Salzburg team who have yet to lose in the Group, but Marseille have been much better at home.
I am looking for Marseille to just use the extra motivation in this fixture to lead them to a win and I think they can be backed for a small interest to beat Salzburg by a couple of goals on the night. Salzburg have already won the Group and they are in a real battle for top spot in Austria, while Marseille are hosting Saint-Etienne in a few days time which should mean they can put in the big effort in this Europa League game as well as the home game in the French League on Sunday.
Marseille have won 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap on Thursday.
Real Sociedad v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Neither Real Sociedad or Zenit St Petersburg can point to any significant form in recent weeks with the majority of Zenit's better performances coming at home while Real Sociedad have struggled in general.
There is plenty on the line for both clubs on Thursday with top spot up for grabs and I think Real Sociedad can use home advantage to earn that.
As poor as the recent results have been, Real Sociedad are a side that have scored plenty of goals and I am not sure Zenit St Petersburg can exploit their defensive issues.
I wouldn't invest a lot in this with both teams through and perhaps more interested in their League form rather than putting too much into this fixture. However I do think finishing with a Seed for the Last 32 draw is hard to ignore and I believe Real Sociedad can get the better of a Zenit St Petersburg side who have just hit the wall on their travels in recent weeks.
At odds against it has to be worth a small interest in backing Real Sociedad to win.
Zorya v Athletic Bilbao Pick: There are a few fixtures around the Europa League where the two teams competing with one another are in direct conflict for a place in the Last 32. This is one of those with Zorya capable of finishing above Athletic Bilbao with a victory, while the Spanish club just need a result to ensure they are playing European Football after Christmas.
There is much on the line, but Athletic Bilbao look very short when you think of how they have performed in recent weeks. They are also not a side that can be backed with a lot of confidence on their travels in the Europa League having won 1 of their last 8 away games and even that came after trailing 2-0.
Zorya have not exactly been lighting things up themselves though and I think Athletic Bilbao should be able to show they are the superior team. It was Zorya who won 0-1 in Bilbao, but that should only focus the Athletic Bilbao players who know a draw would be good enough to go through.
I have to say Athletic Bilbao look plenty short when you think of the recent form and lack of wins away from home. This can't be a confident side, but I think they will have enough to earn the point they need and backing the draw for a small interest looks the way to go.
The situation is a concern because Zorya will need to chase the game if they are behind or level with time ticking down and that could leave Athletic Bilbao with spaces to exploit. However I am not sure the Basque club are in a position to really take advantage or playing with the confidence to exploit any defensive lapses, and I will take a small interest in the draw.
MY PICKS: Bayern Munich 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celtic & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Slavia Prague @ 1.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Villarreal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marseille - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Real Sociedad @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Zorya-Athletic Bilbao Draw @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
If you want to be successful you have to find a way to negotiate these fixtures and keep the wins coming and so it is important for the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur to have confirmed their spots in the Knock Out Rounds of their European competitions.
Ok, United are not officially in the Last 16 draw, but barring something completely random happening on Tuesday, they should be through as Group Winners and Jose Mourinho has a chance to give some key players a rest after playing three Premier League games in an eight day period.
Those other clubs I have mentioned also have that opportunity, but Liverpool are the exception as they will be out of the Champions League if they were to lose on Wednesday and Sevilla beat Maribor. That means Jurgen Klopp has to take things very seriously, although Liverpool aren't due to play again until Sunday so there is time for him to prepare his side for the Merseyside derby after this Champions League Match Day 6 round of games are concluded.
You have to be careful with the final set of Group games as teams are likely to make changes with their futures in the competitions secured. You will begin to see some of the layers producing short odds on teams who 'must win' and you have to work out the value as much as possible on the prices that have been set and also keep a keen eye on the team news that comes out.
Bayern Munich v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Winning the Group would have been the aim for both Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain at the start of the Champions League, but that looks to be decided thanks to PSG beating Bayern Munich 3-0 in the French capital earlier in the section.
Paris Saint-Germain have continued hammering the other teams in the Group which means Bayern Munich have to win by at least a four goal margin if they are going to finish above their visitors. That looks a tall task even if you think of how Paris Saint-Germain were beaten 6-1 at Barcelona in the Second Round of this competition last season, especially as PSG are a much better team this time around.
It was also a day when everything seemed to conspire against them and the talk from the Bayern Munich camp sounds like they are already accepting a Group win is not likely. Even the talk of 'revenge' for the manner of the loss in Paris has been played down, but I do think Bayern Munich will want to prove they are still amongst the favourites to win the Champions League.
That means winning at home on Match Day 6 against another team considered amongst the best in Europe and I do think Bayern Munich can do that. The form has been improving and the injuries are beginning to clear up, while Paris Saint-Germain have not looked happy for a team who have been unbeaten in 21 games in all competitions before the 2-1 loss in Strasbourg.
Bayern Munich have won 17 of their last 19 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some issues on their travels in recent years. Being able to back the home team on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market looks a decent option here and I like Bayern Munich here.
Celtic v Anderlecht Pick: Both Celtic and Anderlecht are likely going to try and get on the front foot in this one and try and win the game and I do think there is a potential for an entertaining game at Celtic Park on Match Day 6.
Celtic have been strong domestically and they have given teams problems when they have arrived in Glasgow especially when they are on the level of Anderlecht. The 0-3 win in Brussels means Celtic hold the cards here, but Anderlecht have to be respected having won 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.
The problem for Anderlecht is they have to take risks at some point to get back into contention for a Europa League spot. Anything less than a win by at least a three goal margin is not going to be enough and I think that may play into the hands of Celtic who can exploit gaps on the counter attack.
Brendan Rodgers will stick to his principles and look to play attacking football too and these teams could mesh for a high-scoring game which the layers are taking no chances with. However I think the situation also means Celtic could find a way to win this fixture when Anderlecht get a little ragged trying to chase the goals they need.
That could see Celtic ultimately produce another win against Anderlecht and I will back them to do that. I will keep the stakes to a minimum knowing Celtic can afford a draw and a narrow defeat to go through too, but I will look for the Scottish Champions to win a game in which at least three goals are scored.
Manchester United v CSKA Moscow Pick: Some in the media clearly don't understand maths very well when talking about the problems Manchester United had after losing 1-0 at Basel, but the Champions League Group has been well in hand since winning the opening 4 games in this section.
It would be a huge turn of events to prevent Manchester United from winning the Group let along being knocked out of the Champions League and I don't think the players are feeling that much pressure. Even Jose Mourinho is looking to freshen up the starting eleven knowing a narrow loss would be ok for Manchester United to win the Group and get ready for the Champions League Last 16 draw next week.
With the way Manchester United have been playing, there is enough momentum to help them win this game on Tuesday and keep things on a positive track ahead of the Manchester derby on Sunday. I expect a strong team to still take to the field and it is a big task for CSKA Moscow to make it 5 straight away Champions League wins.
Prior to this season they had not been the best travellers in this competition and CSKA Moscow are under more pressure to get forward and secure a result. They will likely need to win at Old Trafford to have a chance of going through to the Last 16, but that may also lead to spaces opening up as they chase the game.
Manchester United have been very strong at Old Trafford as they put their 39 game unbeaten run on the line and they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions. With 7 wins in 9 European home games I fancy Manchester United will earn the victory in this one too and I can see a counter attacking goal putting this to bed later in the contest.
That could help Manchester United cover the Asian Handicap in this one and I will back them to do so.
Liverpool v Spartak Moscow Pick: There is some pressure on Liverpool to make sure they win the Group or likely guarantee a really difficult Last 16 tie in the Champions League. However they can't be too desperate as a defeat would likely see them knocked out of the competition and entering the Europa League.
Jurgen Klopp only really has one way he wants to see his side play football so I would expect Liverpool to get forward and try and take the game away from Spartak Moscow in the first half hour at Anfield. At some point Spartak Moscow will have to chase this game too knowing they need a win to get through to the Last 16 themselves and I think it will play into the Liverpool hands.
This is a side who have played better at home when it comes to defensive schemes and most Liverpool fans would expect to have a much better day in the final third than when these teams met in Russia. On that day Liverpool could have won easily but missed a host of chances in the 1-1 draw, but they look a little stronger all around now and I don't think those opportunities go begging in the same way.
Spartak Moscow have also been playing better, but they have yet to really turn it on in the Champions League outside of the 5-1 home win over Sevilla. Draws in both games against Maribor have hurt Spartak Moscow and they will have to be a lot better to deal with Liverpool at Anfield.
All in all it feels like a game that Liverpool will dominate early and then pick Spartak Moscow off as the Russian side are forced to come forward. I expect that will lead to a fairly comfortable Liverpool win on the night and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Manchester City Pick: You do have to take Pep Guardiola's comments seriously about wanting to play a strong team that can win the game in this final Champions League Group game, but it would be a big surprise if changes aren't made to keep the starting eleven fresh. There is a big game coming up on Sunday in the Premier League and Manchester City have already Qualified for the Last 16 so failing to make changes would be a real surprise.
Even with that in mind, Manchester City have enough quality to cause problems for Shakhtar Donetsk who are under more pressure knowing a win leaves them vulnerable to Napoli in 3rd place. They have performed much better at 'home' in recent European games than on their travels which will give Shakhtar Donetsk confidence of securing a result, but they will have to be aware of this Manchester City team.
Recent form has not been the best but Manchester City keep finding ways to win games and the players coming in will want to show the manager they are capable of being used in big Premier League games too.
On the other hand I would expect Shakhtar Donetsk to cause problems too like they did at the Etihad Stadium earlier in the Group. Stronger performances at home will give them confidence and I can see an attacking game develop with both sides more comfortable trying to score goals.
The 1-1 result is the one that scares me as both teams could settle for that with it being enough for Shakhtar Donetsk to go through and Manchester City will want to keep some energy in check for the big game at Old Trafford on Sunday. An early goal may change the mindset though and force the two teams to play with more attacking intent than you may think in this situation and I do think the teams can combine for at least three goals in this one.
It's a decent price when you think how Manchester City games have developed of late, but some may want a small interest in the 1-1 correct scoreline as a saver.
Slavia Prague v Astana Pick: The final round of Europa League and Champions League games can be tough to call with managers preparing their players for busy times of the season.
In this one both Slavia Prague and Astana have everything to play for with the winner through to the Last 32 while the home team have the benefit of keeping the draw on their side. I do think Slavia Prague can produce the goods to work their way out of the Group, but my concern is that they don't need to win the game.
Both wins they have earned have come against Maccabi Tel-Aviv who have struggled in the Group, but Astana have not been the best travellers in European competition which should make the difference here.
With that in mind the home team have to be worth having a small interest in as they can perhaps catch Astana chasing the game in the second half. Slavia Prague have a decent recent record and I think they can find some spaces to exploit as their visitors commit more men forward to try and get through to the next Round themselves.
Villarreal v Maccabi Tel-Aviv Pick: This Group is already decided as far as Villarreal and Maccabi Tel-Aviv are concerned and there are likely to be some changes in the home starting eleven with Barcelona to come in three days time.
That should mean there are a few issues for Villarreal to negotiate as they are perhaps trying to work out the chemistry to put themselves in a position to win this game. They could be helped by the struggles Maccabi Tel-Aviv have been having in the Group and I do think Villarreal are going to be able to secure yet another win in the section.
Villarreal have been a mixed bag in their recent home Europa League games, but I think they can show they are the superior team and they could be worth a small interest to win by a couple of goals on the day.
It is odds against for that to happen, but Villarreal will have seen the way Maccabi Tel-Aviv have struggled away from home in this Group. Both losses have come by at least a two goal margin and I will look for Villarreal to do enough to become the latest to beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv by that margin.
Marseille v Salzburg Pick: There is more on the line for Marseille than Salzburg on Match Day 6 so you have to expect the team line up to indicate that as the home team look for the point which will send through to the Last 32. Both teams have big domestic action to look forward to on Sunday, but Marseille are at home compared with Salzburg who are travelling and that can play a part in the selections of the two managers too.
It won't be an easy game for Marseille who are facing a Salzburg team who have yet to lose in the Group, but Marseille have been much better at home.
I am looking for Marseille to just use the extra motivation in this fixture to lead them to a win and I think they can be backed for a small interest to beat Salzburg by a couple of goals on the night. Salzburg have already won the Group and they are in a real battle for top spot in Austria, while Marseille are hosting Saint-Etienne in a few days time which should mean they can put in the big effort in this Europa League game as well as the home game in the French League on Sunday.
Marseille have won 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap on Thursday.
Real Sociedad v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Neither Real Sociedad or Zenit St Petersburg can point to any significant form in recent weeks with the majority of Zenit's better performances coming at home while Real Sociedad have struggled in general.
There is plenty on the line for both clubs on Thursday with top spot up for grabs and I think Real Sociedad can use home advantage to earn that.
As poor as the recent results have been, Real Sociedad are a side that have scored plenty of goals and I am not sure Zenit St Petersburg can exploit their defensive issues.
I wouldn't invest a lot in this with both teams through and perhaps more interested in their League form rather than putting too much into this fixture. However I do think finishing with a Seed for the Last 32 draw is hard to ignore and I believe Real Sociedad can get the better of a Zenit St Petersburg side who have just hit the wall on their travels in recent weeks.
At odds against it has to be worth a small interest in backing Real Sociedad to win.
Zorya v Athletic Bilbao Pick: There are a few fixtures around the Europa League where the two teams competing with one another are in direct conflict for a place in the Last 32. This is one of those with Zorya capable of finishing above Athletic Bilbao with a victory, while the Spanish club just need a result to ensure they are playing European Football after Christmas.
There is much on the line, but Athletic Bilbao look very short when you think of how they have performed in recent weeks. They are also not a side that can be backed with a lot of confidence on their travels in the Europa League having won 1 of their last 8 away games and even that came after trailing 2-0.
Zorya have not exactly been lighting things up themselves though and I think Athletic Bilbao should be able to show they are the superior team. It was Zorya who won 0-1 in Bilbao, but that should only focus the Athletic Bilbao players who know a draw would be good enough to go through.
I have to say Athletic Bilbao look plenty short when you think of the recent form and lack of wins away from home. This can't be a confident side, but I think they will have enough to earn the point they need and backing the draw for a small interest looks the way to go.
The situation is a concern because Zorya will need to chase the game if they are behind or level with time ticking down and that could leave Athletic Bilbao with spaces to exploit. However I am not sure the Basque club are in a position to really take advantage or playing with the confidence to exploit any defensive lapses, and I will take a small interest in the draw.
MY PICKS: Bayern Munich 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celtic & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Slavia Prague @ 1.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Villarreal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marseille - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Real Sociedad @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Zorya-Athletic Bilbao Draw @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tuesday, 8 December 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (December 8-10)
I've never had a season picking games like the one I am having this year as I simply won't get any luck nor will I avoid the bad picks. Put those things together and there really isn't a lot of room for manoeuvre and the frustration is certainly high.
Let me just take this weekend as an example of some of the rubbish that seems to be coming my way.
So I had both Stoke City and Arsenal to win their games on the handicap on the shortlist, but was put off by the fact the former were in an early game against Manchester City who looked to be returning their key players, while the latter looked beat up through injuries.
Of course the Manchester City players that were expected back never materialised and Stoke City won easily, while Arsenal scored late to win by two clear goals as they would have needed to.
Instead I backed Southampton to beat Aston Villa essentially only for the latter to somehow survive the first half when they were battered from pillar to post and escape with a draw.
I back goals in games at Watford, West Brom and Everton where I looked for three to be shared out and in each of those games there were two goals scored... Forget the fact that there were enough chances for about a thousand goals that were missed this week, including Everton hitting the woodwork three times and you can see the trend.
It's bloody annoying because I know if I didn't expect goals that all of the strikers that were slightly off would have been slightly on and that little bit of luck has completely deserted me. It's embarrassing really and I wouldn't pay the slightest bit of attention to what I think is going to happen at the moment because invariably something comes up that sees the opposite occur.
The Champions League and Europa League are into Match Day 6 this week and there are big moments ahead for a number of teams. Of course the focus will be on the three English clubs who are teetering on the edge, notably Manchester United and Arsenal who have tough away assignments to negotiate if they are to reach the Second Round of the Champions League.
Chelsea have a bit more leeway in their game against Porto which is also being played at home, but Jose Mourinho's men are not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment either.
The draw for the Knock Out Stage will be made next week on a Monday which seems strange, but perhaps it is to take away any focus from the Euro 2016 Finals draw which will be made on Saturday afternoon.
Galatasaray v Astana Pick: The chance to get into the Second Round of the Champions League might already be gone for both of these clubs, but there is still a decent prize to play for on Match Day 6. That is a place in the Europa League, but both Galatasaray and Astana won't look at that as a consolation and the chance to still be playing European football in the New Year is a big opportunity for both clubs.
It is Galatasaray who have the edge having earned a point more than Astana and now hosting the game in Istanbul. However, Astana have not played a competitive game since Match Day 5 and the 2-2 home draw with Benfica and that has allowed them to travel and prepare for this game in Turkey.
That might not be enough for the Kazakhstan club to get something from this game though and both of their away games have ended with defeats of at least two goals each time. Add in their 4-0 loss at Villarreal in the Europa League last season and you can see the mountain Astana have to climb to beat Galatasaray and steal the place in the Europa League.
The challenge is all the more difficult when you think Galatasaray have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions which includes coming from behind to beat Benfica 2-1 in the Champions League. Galatasaray's win over Benfica ended a run of 5 consecutive home games in the competition without a win, although the sides they have played have been of superior levels to Astana.
The onus is on the away team to make this a game as they have to win and it will be a big task considering the goals that Galatasaray have produced at home. I can see a situation where the home team is leading and able to pick off their visitors late in the game as Astana push forward to get back into this and Galatasaray can become the latest team to beat Astana by at least two goals at home.
Paris Saint-Germain v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: Paris Saint-Germain are already through to the Last 16 of the Champions League and they know they will follow Real Madrid through. With this being a dead rubber, it is easy to suggest that Laurent Blanc will make a lot of changes, but the manager was talking about ending the campaign in style and I think they can do that.
While we would have all expected PSG and Read Madrid to make it through to the Second Round, Shakhtar Donetsk have still been a bit of a let down in my mind. I expected them to make it difficult for the two big teams in the Group but Shakhtar were crushed 0-3 at home by Paris Saint-Germain and were 0-4 down to Real Madrid before rallying in the second half and going down 3-4.
That will have disappointed the manager Mircea Lucescu who has blamed poor starts in games for Shakhtar's lack of success. Getting into the Europa League is still of high importance, but Shakhtar could afford to lose this game as long as Malmo do the same in Madrid where they take on Real at the same time.
It is difficult to see Shakhtar Donetsk getting more from this game than another Champions League away defeat. They have lost in Real Madrid and in Malmo without scoring a goal and Shakhtar Donetsk have only scored 2 goals in their last 9 away games in the Champions League if you dismiss a 0-7 win in BATE Borisov last season.
Paris Saint-Germain have looked to make this venue a fortress and they have made it clear they want to end the Group in style. That convinces me that they can win this game by a comfortable enough margin and Shakhtar Donetsk are given one more experience to show the difference between them and the very best in European football.
PSV Eindhoven v CSKA Moscow Pick: No matter what happens in the other game in the Group, things are very clear for PSV Eindhoven- win this game and they are into the Second Round of the Champions League against most expectations.
Now the layers have used that outcome as a reason to shorten the prices on a PSV Eindhoven win to an almost ridiculous price.
That isn't to say that I don't expect the home team to win the game though.
CSKA Moscow have been in terrible form and head into this fixture having failed to win any of their last 7 games and losing 6 of those, while they have scored just twice in that run. Add in the fact that CSKA Moscow have been terrible travellers in the Champions League where they have lost 9 of their last 11 games in the competition including both this season at Wolfsburg and Manchester United by the same 1-0 scoreline.
Confidence has to be an issue and I think PSV Eindhoven will take advantage with the home crowd firmly behind them. They have won their last 4 home games in a row and won both Champions League games here and I think it would be a huge surprise if they don't win tonight.
Value looks gone on the home win though as they have been heavily backed. Instead I think a small interest on them founding their success behind a solid defensive unit looks to be the call especially as CSKA Moscow have been struggling in front of goal and failed to score in both away games played in the Group.
PSV Eindhoven shut out Wolfsburg on the way to a 2-0 win and I will back them to win this one to nil.
Wolfsburg v Manchester United Pick: Louis Van Gaal may claim his team have been the better in every game they have played bar two away games in the Premier League, but Manchester United fans are not buying that. Another goalless draw at Old Trafford, this time against West Ham United, drew a poor reaction from the fans who decided to stay until the end at the weekend and boos were offered.
A draw might not be good enough for Manchester United to remain in the Champions League this week as I am expecting PSV Eindhoven to be too good for CSKA Moscow in the other game in the Group. That means Manchester United will have to match that result if they are to get through to the Second Round.
Getting a result at Wolfsburg won't be easy for Manchester United who lost in Eindhoven and only drew in Moscow, especially as Wolfsburg have been in some decent form at home. A late goal does mean Wolfsburg have lost 2 of their last 4 games here, but those came against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, while Wolfsburg have won both Group games in the Champions League at home.
The layers certainly are not under-estimating Wolfsburg who have been set as the favourites to beat Manchester United. However, I do have to say that Van Gaal's team have been a little more positive away from home with the additional space they are usually afforded and I can see Manchester United winning here.
Nothing is going to come easy though and there might be a few more goals here than many expect- I am expecting PSV Eindhoven to win their game and I expect that news will filter through to the pitch. One of these teams is likely to be pushing forward in the final fifteen minutes looking for a crucial goal that might be the difference between the Champions League and Europa League and I think both are capable of being on the scoreboard before that.
Both teams have scored in both of Manchester United's away games in the Champions League Group Stage and with that space will likely come chances so backing at least three goals to be scored in the fourth successive game between these clubs looks to be overpriced.
Roma v BATE Borisov Pick: One of the underperforming teams in European competition from Italy has to be Roma who have failed to really make an impact in the Champions League despite being Juventus' nearest challenger domestically. They can't have asked for much more than being asked to beat BATE Borisov at home to qualify for the Second Round, but Roma have just slipped a little in recent weeks which makes this dangerous.
In saying that, Roma are facing a BATE Borisov team that has lost 7 straight Group games away from home and all of those losses have come by at least two goals each.
Prior to the home loss to Atalanta, Roma had been playing very well at home although they are one of those teams I am never that comfortable backing to win a game with room to spare. That is especially the case when they play their home European games although Roma did crush CSKA Moscow 5-1 here last season.
That result and the way they have gone about their business in the Champions League this season makes me think they will be too good for BATE Borisov. The latter have lost their games with room to spare for the most part when facing the better teams in the Champions League and I will look for Roma to move into the Second Round behind a win by a couple of goals at least.
Chelsea v Porto Pick: You can only say it has been a baffling season for Chelsea who won the Premier League title last May and have since fallen apart in the defence of their title. Jose Mourinho has admitted that getting into the top four is going to be difficult now and Chelsea remind me very much of Manchester United under David Moyes.
Like Moyes, Mourinho has been unable to find the right blend in the Premier League and he also hasn't had a lot of luck go the way of his Chelsea team. Also like Moyes, Mourinho's team have produced their best results in the Champions League and Chelsea will be expecting to get through to the Second Round.
Performances have not been terrible in recent games and Chelsea will feel their luck is due to turn with some poor non-penalty decisions going against them. They will also know the pressure is on Porto who have to win this game assuming Dynamo Kiev will be too strong for Maccabi Tel Aviv who they host in the Ukraine and knowing Maccabi have yet to pick up a single point.
A draw would mean Chelsea and Dynamo Kiev will move into the Second Round so Porto have to strike the right balance to ensure they give themselves a chance to get through. That could mean Chelsea are able to hit Porto late on as they begin to chase the game and you can't ignore that Chelsea have won both home games in the Champions League.
Porto haven't lost too many recent games on their travels in the Champions League with just a single defeat from 8 away games in the competition. However this looks to be the kind of game where Chelsea can show their quality as they try and pick off their visitors and I think the edge has to be given to the home team.
I would have wanted nothing to do with Chelsea at odds on in this game as they would have likely have been if they had won the game against Bournemouth on Saturday. However Chelsea look much more appealing at odds against and I can see them finishing Porto off on the break when news comes through that Dynamo Kiev are winning and Porto need to win this game to get through to the Second Round.
Winning the Group would be a bonus for Jose Mourinho and might ease some pressure that has to be building thanks to results over the first three months of the season.
Dinamo Zagreb v Bayern Munich Pick: With a dead rubber like this one, it is a good idea to keep an eye on the team news especially from the Bayern Munich squad who are trying to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Borussia Monchengladbach.
Even with the changes you would expect Bayern Munich to be too good for a Dinamo Zagreb team they outclassed at home. Dinamo Zagreb's win over Arsenal was a fantastic result, but the latter should not have lost that game and it is hard to see Bayern Munich faltering in that manner.
They have had some very poor results away from home in the Champions League in recent games which is another reason Pep Guardiola has to be looking for Bayern Munich to put another statement win down. I think that is a concern when looking later in the tournament and some big away games Bayern Munich will have to play, but they should be too strong for Dinamo Zagreb and I would expect the Bavarian giants to win this by a couple of goals.
Dinamo Zagreb have lost 6 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League Group Stage and 4 of those losses have come by at least two goals. I'd expect even a changed Bayern Munich team to match those results and put another strong away win in the Group Stage on the board.
Olympiacos v Arsenal Pick: This is a huge game for Arsene Wenger and his Arsenal side as they look to dig themselves out of a big hole in the Group and once again reach the Second Round of the Champions League. Finishing second in the Group has been an issue for the fans in the past, but this season it will be seen as a success as Arsenal look to avoid Manchester United's fate and end up in the Europa League.
Injuries are a big concern in the Arsenal squad ahead of a really busy Christmas period which is coming up, but they still have enough quality to get the job done in Greece. They can look to their 0-2 success at Monaco in the Second Round of the Champions League that followed a 1-3 home loss as a confidence booster to take into Match Day 6.
However, Olympiacos have plenty to hang their hat on with 11 wins in their last 14 Champions League home games including against some of the big names in European football like Manchester United, Juventus and Atletico Madrid. They have also beaten Arsenal three times at home in the last six seasons in the Champions League Group Stage so they shouldn't be worried about being able to do enough to get into the Last 16.
I can make a pretty good case for both teams, but I certainly think the layers have priced up Olympiacos with the knowledge that they can afford a narrow loss and still go through. That would be dangerous for Olympiacos who are trying to play their natural game, while Arsenal will have nothing to lose at some stage of the game and have the attacking players to do some damage.
Picking a winner might be difficult, but it does look a game that will likely see some spaces open up in the final twenty minutes with one team needing to push regardless of the score at that point.
The last two games in Greece between these teams has produced at least three goals and the last five overall have gone that way including earlier in the Group. There looks to be enough of an attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities to think that can happen here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Valencia v Lyon Pick: Gary Neville will take charge of Valencia for the first time after his surprise appointment last week. He watched Valencia battle back against Barcelona to draw 1-1 in La Liga on Saturday, but Neville's first challenge is to somehow help Valencia move into the Second Round of the Champions League.
Valencia really have to win this game and hope Gent are unable to beat Zenit St Petersburg at home at the same time if they are to make it through to the Second Round.
With the way Zenit St Petersburg have played in the Group that is possible, although the Russian team have won the section and have nothing to play for. Neville won't be worrying about that but will be preparing his Valencia side to beat Lyon who are out of European competition and who have been in poor form.
Lyon have lost 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and have a big game against Paris Saint-Germain this weekend which might distract them. With Valencia winning 2 of their 3 home games in the Champions League you have to think the Spanish side will be too good for Lyon, especially as they have beaten Monaco 3-1 here in the Qualifiers already this season.
The recent form hasn't been productive for Valencia but they are unbeaten in 7 games at home in all competitions and I expect them to give Neville a winning start, although the former Manchester United right back might be joining his former team in the Europa League.
Unlike Manchester United, I can see Valencia at least winning their final game in the Champions League Group to give themselves a chance of remaining in this competition. I expect the home team win this by a couple of goals against a disinterested opponent.
Ajax v Molde Pick: The Europa League is a competition in which Ajax would like to progress but it looks a difficult task with the way the results have gone. Hoping Fenerbahce lose to Celtic at home looks a long shot but I expect Ajax to at least do their part and hope results go their way.
I am expecting Ajax to be far too good for Molde who have not had much competitive football with their domestic season completed. They were outclassed by Fenerbahce in a home loss a couple of weeks ago and Ajax were unfortunate not to win in Norway.
Home advantage hasn't exactly been the most positive thing for Ajax in European competition this season, but I do think they are the better team on the field. Ajax have been scoring plenty of goals here in recent games, albeit against domestic opposition, but Molde aren't one of the stronger teams in the Europe.
Molde might play for the draw to get to finish top of the Group, but I think Ajax will win this by a comfortable margin on Thursday.
Sion v Liverpool Pick: There is no doubting the draw would satisfy both managers if they were offered to it now as it would mean Sion are through to the Last 32 and Liverpool have won the Group and will be Seeded for that draw.
Jurgen Klopp has brought an experimental squad over to Switzerland for the game, but he has clearly put some serious stock in the Europa League. His Borussia Dortmund team enjoyed considerable success in Europe in recent years and Liverpool have responded to the new voice in the dressing room.
Liverpool are trying to bounce back from their disappointing 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United last Sunday and I expecting a reaction from them. The scenario around the game is hard to ignore, but if news comes through that Rubin Kazan are losing in the other game, Sion may just come out trying to win the Group.
Klopp's team have shown they can be very dangerous on the counter attack though and I think Liverpool find a way to win this game.
Napoli v Legia Warsaw Pick: The fact that qualification for the Last 32 has been secured does mean that Napoli will likely make some changes to their starting eleven with Roma set to visit here on Sunday.
However, Napoli have been dominant at home and I expect they will be focused having lost their last League game 3-2 at Bologna. Napoli have won 8 in a row at home and both Europa League games have ended with strong home wins.
Legia Warsaw have rarely been outclassed away from home in recent European games and they are coming into this with a win giving them a chance of moving into the Last 32 of the Europa League depending what happens in the other fixture in the Group.
However, that also means the onus is on them to get forward and Napoli may have a real chance to catch them on the counter attack a couple of times as the game wears on. With back to back 5-0 wins in Europe behind them, I am not anticipating Napoli get to those kind of margins as the attention will shift to the game with Roma.
I am expecting Napoli to strike late and win this one by a couple of goals though and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Rapid Vienna v Dinamo Minsk Pick: Winning a Group in the Europa League looks certain to offer up an 'easier' draw in the Last 32 when you look at some of the names that will potentially be Seeded. It is no guarantee any team would receive that favourable draw, but Rapid Vienna will know the importance of winning this Group and that means surpassing the result Villarreal produce in Viktoria Plzen.
A draw is unlikely to be good enough for Rapid Vienna and they will want to put the pressure on Villarreal by getting into an early lead in this one. There is enough attacking potential in the team to make Rapid Vienna favourites to win the game, although they have been inconsistent of late.
That has not been the case at home though and Dinamo Minsk will do well to stay with Rapid Vienna having lost 3 away games in a row in the Europa League by at least two goal margins. A lack of goals has been a problem for Dinamo Minsk on their travels and I do think Rapid Vienna will be too good.
A fast start and the potential to dominate the chances should lead to a comfortable win for Rapid Vienna and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v Monaco Pick: With just one point needed to top the Group, Tottenham Hotspur are in a strong position to get back into the Knock Out Rounds of the Europa League. This competition may provide another avenue into the Champions League these days, but some of the English teams have been less than impressed about being involved, although Tottenham Hotspur have given the Group plenty of respect.
There will be some changes made to the starting eleven, but Mauricio Pochettino has admitted he will still play a strong team to build some momentum.
The pressure is all on Monaco who have to win this game and hope Anderlecht fail to win theirs against Qarabag at the same time. This isn't the same Monaco that reached the Champions League Quarter Final last season and I think the focus for the club is to get back into a position to qualify for that tournament having been knocked out in the Qualifiers this season.
As they increasingly chase the game, I can see Spurs finding a way to hit Monaco on the counter attack and find a way to get back to winning ways at White Hart Lane after their 3 game winning run was ended in a goalless draw with Chelsea.
MY PICKS: Galatasaray - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
PSV Eindhoven Win to Nil @ 3.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Wolfsburg-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Unit)
Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Olympiacos-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Valencia - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Liverpool @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Napoli - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Rapid Vienna - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Let me just take this weekend as an example of some of the rubbish that seems to be coming my way.
So I had both Stoke City and Arsenal to win their games on the handicap on the shortlist, but was put off by the fact the former were in an early game against Manchester City who looked to be returning their key players, while the latter looked beat up through injuries.
Of course the Manchester City players that were expected back never materialised and Stoke City won easily, while Arsenal scored late to win by two clear goals as they would have needed to.
Instead I backed Southampton to beat Aston Villa essentially only for the latter to somehow survive the first half when they were battered from pillar to post and escape with a draw.
I back goals in games at Watford, West Brom and Everton where I looked for three to be shared out and in each of those games there were two goals scored... Forget the fact that there were enough chances for about a thousand goals that were missed this week, including Everton hitting the woodwork three times and you can see the trend.
It's bloody annoying because I know if I didn't expect goals that all of the strikers that were slightly off would have been slightly on and that little bit of luck has completely deserted me. It's embarrassing really and I wouldn't pay the slightest bit of attention to what I think is going to happen at the moment because invariably something comes up that sees the opposite occur.
The Champions League and Europa League are into Match Day 6 this week and there are big moments ahead for a number of teams. Of course the focus will be on the three English clubs who are teetering on the edge, notably Manchester United and Arsenal who have tough away assignments to negotiate if they are to reach the Second Round of the Champions League.
Chelsea have a bit more leeway in their game against Porto which is also being played at home, but Jose Mourinho's men are not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment either.
The draw for the Knock Out Stage will be made next week on a Monday which seems strange, but perhaps it is to take away any focus from the Euro 2016 Finals draw which will be made on Saturday afternoon.
Galatasaray v Astana Pick: The chance to get into the Second Round of the Champions League might already be gone for both of these clubs, but there is still a decent prize to play for on Match Day 6. That is a place in the Europa League, but both Galatasaray and Astana won't look at that as a consolation and the chance to still be playing European football in the New Year is a big opportunity for both clubs.
It is Galatasaray who have the edge having earned a point more than Astana and now hosting the game in Istanbul. However, Astana have not played a competitive game since Match Day 5 and the 2-2 home draw with Benfica and that has allowed them to travel and prepare for this game in Turkey.
That might not be enough for the Kazakhstan club to get something from this game though and both of their away games have ended with defeats of at least two goals each time. Add in their 4-0 loss at Villarreal in the Europa League last season and you can see the mountain Astana have to climb to beat Galatasaray and steal the place in the Europa League.
The challenge is all the more difficult when you think Galatasaray have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions which includes coming from behind to beat Benfica 2-1 in the Champions League. Galatasaray's win over Benfica ended a run of 5 consecutive home games in the competition without a win, although the sides they have played have been of superior levels to Astana.
The onus is on the away team to make this a game as they have to win and it will be a big task considering the goals that Galatasaray have produced at home. I can see a situation where the home team is leading and able to pick off their visitors late in the game as Astana push forward to get back into this and Galatasaray can become the latest team to beat Astana by at least two goals at home.
Paris Saint-Germain v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: Paris Saint-Germain are already through to the Last 16 of the Champions League and they know they will follow Real Madrid through. With this being a dead rubber, it is easy to suggest that Laurent Blanc will make a lot of changes, but the manager was talking about ending the campaign in style and I think they can do that.
While we would have all expected PSG and Read Madrid to make it through to the Second Round, Shakhtar Donetsk have still been a bit of a let down in my mind. I expected them to make it difficult for the two big teams in the Group but Shakhtar were crushed 0-3 at home by Paris Saint-Germain and were 0-4 down to Real Madrid before rallying in the second half and going down 3-4.
That will have disappointed the manager Mircea Lucescu who has blamed poor starts in games for Shakhtar's lack of success. Getting into the Europa League is still of high importance, but Shakhtar could afford to lose this game as long as Malmo do the same in Madrid where they take on Real at the same time.
It is difficult to see Shakhtar Donetsk getting more from this game than another Champions League away defeat. They have lost in Real Madrid and in Malmo without scoring a goal and Shakhtar Donetsk have only scored 2 goals in their last 9 away games in the Champions League if you dismiss a 0-7 win in BATE Borisov last season.
Paris Saint-Germain have looked to make this venue a fortress and they have made it clear they want to end the Group in style. That convinces me that they can win this game by a comfortable enough margin and Shakhtar Donetsk are given one more experience to show the difference between them and the very best in European football.
PSV Eindhoven v CSKA Moscow Pick: No matter what happens in the other game in the Group, things are very clear for PSV Eindhoven- win this game and they are into the Second Round of the Champions League against most expectations.
Now the layers have used that outcome as a reason to shorten the prices on a PSV Eindhoven win to an almost ridiculous price.
That isn't to say that I don't expect the home team to win the game though.
CSKA Moscow have been in terrible form and head into this fixture having failed to win any of their last 7 games and losing 6 of those, while they have scored just twice in that run. Add in the fact that CSKA Moscow have been terrible travellers in the Champions League where they have lost 9 of their last 11 games in the competition including both this season at Wolfsburg and Manchester United by the same 1-0 scoreline.
Confidence has to be an issue and I think PSV Eindhoven will take advantage with the home crowd firmly behind them. They have won their last 4 home games in a row and won both Champions League games here and I think it would be a huge surprise if they don't win tonight.
Value looks gone on the home win though as they have been heavily backed. Instead I think a small interest on them founding their success behind a solid defensive unit looks to be the call especially as CSKA Moscow have been struggling in front of goal and failed to score in both away games played in the Group.
PSV Eindhoven shut out Wolfsburg on the way to a 2-0 win and I will back them to win this one to nil.
Wolfsburg v Manchester United Pick: Louis Van Gaal may claim his team have been the better in every game they have played bar two away games in the Premier League, but Manchester United fans are not buying that. Another goalless draw at Old Trafford, this time against West Ham United, drew a poor reaction from the fans who decided to stay until the end at the weekend and boos were offered.
A draw might not be good enough for Manchester United to remain in the Champions League this week as I am expecting PSV Eindhoven to be too good for CSKA Moscow in the other game in the Group. That means Manchester United will have to match that result if they are to get through to the Second Round.
Getting a result at Wolfsburg won't be easy for Manchester United who lost in Eindhoven and only drew in Moscow, especially as Wolfsburg have been in some decent form at home. A late goal does mean Wolfsburg have lost 2 of their last 4 games here, but those came against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, while Wolfsburg have won both Group games in the Champions League at home.
The layers certainly are not under-estimating Wolfsburg who have been set as the favourites to beat Manchester United. However, I do have to say that Van Gaal's team have been a little more positive away from home with the additional space they are usually afforded and I can see Manchester United winning here.
Nothing is going to come easy though and there might be a few more goals here than many expect- I am expecting PSV Eindhoven to win their game and I expect that news will filter through to the pitch. One of these teams is likely to be pushing forward in the final fifteen minutes looking for a crucial goal that might be the difference between the Champions League and Europa League and I think both are capable of being on the scoreboard before that.
Both teams have scored in both of Manchester United's away games in the Champions League Group Stage and with that space will likely come chances so backing at least three goals to be scored in the fourth successive game between these clubs looks to be overpriced.
Roma v BATE Borisov Pick: One of the underperforming teams in European competition from Italy has to be Roma who have failed to really make an impact in the Champions League despite being Juventus' nearest challenger domestically. They can't have asked for much more than being asked to beat BATE Borisov at home to qualify for the Second Round, but Roma have just slipped a little in recent weeks which makes this dangerous.
In saying that, Roma are facing a BATE Borisov team that has lost 7 straight Group games away from home and all of those losses have come by at least two goals each.
Prior to the home loss to Atalanta, Roma had been playing very well at home although they are one of those teams I am never that comfortable backing to win a game with room to spare. That is especially the case when they play their home European games although Roma did crush CSKA Moscow 5-1 here last season.
That result and the way they have gone about their business in the Champions League this season makes me think they will be too good for BATE Borisov. The latter have lost their games with room to spare for the most part when facing the better teams in the Champions League and I will look for Roma to move into the Second Round behind a win by a couple of goals at least.
Chelsea v Porto Pick: You can only say it has been a baffling season for Chelsea who won the Premier League title last May and have since fallen apart in the defence of their title. Jose Mourinho has admitted that getting into the top four is going to be difficult now and Chelsea remind me very much of Manchester United under David Moyes.
Like Moyes, Mourinho has been unable to find the right blend in the Premier League and he also hasn't had a lot of luck go the way of his Chelsea team. Also like Moyes, Mourinho's team have produced their best results in the Champions League and Chelsea will be expecting to get through to the Second Round.
Performances have not been terrible in recent games and Chelsea will feel their luck is due to turn with some poor non-penalty decisions going against them. They will also know the pressure is on Porto who have to win this game assuming Dynamo Kiev will be too strong for Maccabi Tel Aviv who they host in the Ukraine and knowing Maccabi have yet to pick up a single point.
A draw would mean Chelsea and Dynamo Kiev will move into the Second Round so Porto have to strike the right balance to ensure they give themselves a chance to get through. That could mean Chelsea are able to hit Porto late on as they begin to chase the game and you can't ignore that Chelsea have won both home games in the Champions League.
Porto haven't lost too many recent games on their travels in the Champions League with just a single defeat from 8 away games in the competition. However this looks to be the kind of game where Chelsea can show their quality as they try and pick off their visitors and I think the edge has to be given to the home team.
I would have wanted nothing to do with Chelsea at odds on in this game as they would have likely have been if they had won the game against Bournemouth on Saturday. However Chelsea look much more appealing at odds against and I can see them finishing Porto off on the break when news comes through that Dynamo Kiev are winning and Porto need to win this game to get through to the Second Round.
Winning the Group would be a bonus for Jose Mourinho and might ease some pressure that has to be building thanks to results over the first three months of the season.
Dinamo Zagreb v Bayern Munich Pick: With a dead rubber like this one, it is a good idea to keep an eye on the team news especially from the Bayern Munich squad who are trying to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Borussia Monchengladbach.
Even with the changes you would expect Bayern Munich to be too good for a Dinamo Zagreb team they outclassed at home. Dinamo Zagreb's win over Arsenal was a fantastic result, but the latter should not have lost that game and it is hard to see Bayern Munich faltering in that manner.
They have had some very poor results away from home in the Champions League in recent games which is another reason Pep Guardiola has to be looking for Bayern Munich to put another statement win down. I think that is a concern when looking later in the tournament and some big away games Bayern Munich will have to play, but they should be too strong for Dinamo Zagreb and I would expect the Bavarian giants to win this by a couple of goals.
Dinamo Zagreb have lost 6 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League Group Stage and 4 of those losses have come by at least two goals. I'd expect even a changed Bayern Munich team to match those results and put another strong away win in the Group Stage on the board.
Olympiacos v Arsenal Pick: This is a huge game for Arsene Wenger and his Arsenal side as they look to dig themselves out of a big hole in the Group and once again reach the Second Round of the Champions League. Finishing second in the Group has been an issue for the fans in the past, but this season it will be seen as a success as Arsenal look to avoid Manchester United's fate and end up in the Europa League.
Injuries are a big concern in the Arsenal squad ahead of a really busy Christmas period which is coming up, but they still have enough quality to get the job done in Greece. They can look to their 0-2 success at Monaco in the Second Round of the Champions League that followed a 1-3 home loss as a confidence booster to take into Match Day 6.
However, Olympiacos have plenty to hang their hat on with 11 wins in their last 14 Champions League home games including against some of the big names in European football like Manchester United, Juventus and Atletico Madrid. They have also beaten Arsenal three times at home in the last six seasons in the Champions League Group Stage so they shouldn't be worried about being able to do enough to get into the Last 16.
I can make a pretty good case for both teams, but I certainly think the layers have priced up Olympiacos with the knowledge that they can afford a narrow loss and still go through. That would be dangerous for Olympiacos who are trying to play their natural game, while Arsenal will have nothing to lose at some stage of the game and have the attacking players to do some damage.
Picking a winner might be difficult, but it does look a game that will likely see some spaces open up in the final twenty minutes with one team needing to push regardless of the score at that point.
The last two games in Greece between these teams has produced at least three goals and the last five overall have gone that way including earlier in the Group. There looks to be enough of an attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities to think that can happen here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Valencia v Lyon Pick: Gary Neville will take charge of Valencia for the first time after his surprise appointment last week. He watched Valencia battle back against Barcelona to draw 1-1 in La Liga on Saturday, but Neville's first challenge is to somehow help Valencia move into the Second Round of the Champions League.
Valencia really have to win this game and hope Gent are unable to beat Zenit St Petersburg at home at the same time if they are to make it through to the Second Round.
With the way Zenit St Petersburg have played in the Group that is possible, although the Russian team have won the section and have nothing to play for. Neville won't be worrying about that but will be preparing his Valencia side to beat Lyon who are out of European competition and who have been in poor form.
Lyon have lost 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and have a big game against Paris Saint-Germain this weekend which might distract them. With Valencia winning 2 of their 3 home games in the Champions League you have to think the Spanish side will be too good for Lyon, especially as they have beaten Monaco 3-1 here in the Qualifiers already this season.
The recent form hasn't been productive for Valencia but they are unbeaten in 7 games at home in all competitions and I expect them to give Neville a winning start, although the former Manchester United right back might be joining his former team in the Europa League.
Unlike Manchester United, I can see Valencia at least winning their final game in the Champions League Group to give themselves a chance of remaining in this competition. I expect the home team win this by a couple of goals against a disinterested opponent.
Ajax v Molde Pick: The Europa League is a competition in which Ajax would like to progress but it looks a difficult task with the way the results have gone. Hoping Fenerbahce lose to Celtic at home looks a long shot but I expect Ajax to at least do their part and hope results go their way.
I am expecting Ajax to be far too good for Molde who have not had much competitive football with their domestic season completed. They were outclassed by Fenerbahce in a home loss a couple of weeks ago and Ajax were unfortunate not to win in Norway.
Home advantage hasn't exactly been the most positive thing for Ajax in European competition this season, but I do think they are the better team on the field. Ajax have been scoring plenty of goals here in recent games, albeit against domestic opposition, but Molde aren't one of the stronger teams in the Europe.
Molde might play for the draw to get to finish top of the Group, but I think Ajax will win this by a comfortable margin on Thursday.
Sion v Liverpool Pick: There is no doubting the draw would satisfy both managers if they were offered to it now as it would mean Sion are through to the Last 32 and Liverpool have won the Group and will be Seeded for that draw.
Jurgen Klopp has brought an experimental squad over to Switzerland for the game, but he has clearly put some serious stock in the Europa League. His Borussia Dortmund team enjoyed considerable success in Europe in recent years and Liverpool have responded to the new voice in the dressing room.
Liverpool are trying to bounce back from their disappointing 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United last Sunday and I expecting a reaction from them. The scenario around the game is hard to ignore, but if news comes through that Rubin Kazan are losing in the other game, Sion may just come out trying to win the Group.
Klopp's team have shown they can be very dangerous on the counter attack though and I think Liverpool find a way to win this game.
Napoli v Legia Warsaw Pick: The fact that qualification for the Last 32 has been secured does mean that Napoli will likely make some changes to their starting eleven with Roma set to visit here on Sunday.
However, Napoli have been dominant at home and I expect they will be focused having lost their last League game 3-2 at Bologna. Napoli have won 8 in a row at home and both Europa League games have ended with strong home wins.
Legia Warsaw have rarely been outclassed away from home in recent European games and they are coming into this with a win giving them a chance of moving into the Last 32 of the Europa League depending what happens in the other fixture in the Group.
However, that also means the onus is on them to get forward and Napoli may have a real chance to catch them on the counter attack a couple of times as the game wears on. With back to back 5-0 wins in Europe behind them, I am not anticipating Napoli get to those kind of margins as the attention will shift to the game with Roma.
I am expecting Napoli to strike late and win this one by a couple of goals though and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Rapid Vienna v Dinamo Minsk Pick: Winning a Group in the Europa League looks certain to offer up an 'easier' draw in the Last 32 when you look at some of the names that will potentially be Seeded. It is no guarantee any team would receive that favourable draw, but Rapid Vienna will know the importance of winning this Group and that means surpassing the result Villarreal produce in Viktoria Plzen.
A draw is unlikely to be good enough for Rapid Vienna and they will want to put the pressure on Villarreal by getting into an early lead in this one. There is enough attacking potential in the team to make Rapid Vienna favourites to win the game, although they have been inconsistent of late.
That has not been the case at home though and Dinamo Minsk will do well to stay with Rapid Vienna having lost 3 away games in a row in the Europa League by at least two goal margins. A lack of goals has been a problem for Dinamo Minsk on their travels and I do think Rapid Vienna will be too good.
A fast start and the potential to dominate the chances should lead to a comfortable win for Rapid Vienna and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v Monaco Pick: With just one point needed to top the Group, Tottenham Hotspur are in a strong position to get back into the Knock Out Rounds of the Europa League. This competition may provide another avenue into the Champions League these days, but some of the English teams have been less than impressed about being involved, although Tottenham Hotspur have given the Group plenty of respect.
There will be some changes made to the starting eleven, but Mauricio Pochettino has admitted he will still play a strong team to build some momentum.
The pressure is all on Monaco who have to win this game and hope Anderlecht fail to win theirs against Qarabag at the same time. This isn't the same Monaco that reached the Champions League Quarter Final last season and I think the focus for the club is to get back into a position to qualify for that tournament having been knocked out in the Qualifiers this season.
As they increasingly chase the game, I can see Spurs finding a way to hit Monaco on the counter attack and find a way to get back to winning ways at White Hart Lane after their 3 game winning run was ended in a goalless draw with Chelsea.
MY PICKS: Galatasaray - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
PSV Eindhoven Win to Nil @ 3.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Wolfsburg-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Unit)
Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Olympiacos-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Valencia - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Liverpool @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Napoli - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Rapid Vienna - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
December Update: 3-7, - 6.20 Units (18 Units Staked, - 34.44% Yield)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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