NFL Week 14 Picks 2021 (December 9-13)

The Week 14 of the NFL season begins a run of pivotal games with the PlayOff places shaking up over the next month.

All of the teams chasing top seven places should be motivated to play hard right through to Week 17 with the new PlayOff format seeing only one team earning a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season. Every game matters from here and there are some big games to come through this Week of the regular season.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team Pick: With the way things are shaping up in the NFC, the feeling is that eight wins will be enough for a team to make their way into the Wild Card Round of the NFL PlayOffs in January. That will mean a losing record could potentially be good enough good, and that may at least have some Dallas Cowboys (8-4) fans feeling a little more comfortable when it comes to playing post-season Football in 2021.

However, the Cowboys laid the platform for much more earlier this season and they are coming out of a rough patch with key players returning on both sides of the ball. Winning the Division is still an important task for teams as it will mean at least one home PlayOff game, while a strong end to this season may still be good enough to secure the very important Number 1 Seed.

That has to keep the motivation going for Dallas, who trail Arizona by two games with five to play, while the Cowboys also have to remain focused considering the improvements seen by a couple of NFC East rivals. The closest challenger is the Washington Football Team (6-6) who have won four in a row and who, in recent seasons at least, have played some very good Football when entering December.

Just two games separate these NFC East rivals and the Cowboys and Football Team are meeting twice in the next three weeks. The first of those in Week 14 is going to be played in Washington, but it is the Cowboys who have been set as a pretty big favourite all things considered.

I do like Dallas here though with the Defensive Line having reinforcements in Week 14, although the likely absence of Tony Pollard is a bit of a blow to the team. As well as the Washington Defensive unit have played during their winning run, they are facing a Dallas team with plenty of Offensive firepower and a team that has had a few extra days to prepare for this game having played on Thursday Night Football in Week 13.

In the last two games, Washington have only needed to score 17 points to win games thanks to the performance of the Defense, but I do think the Dallas Cowboys can offer a different threat to Seattle and Las Vegas. Unlike those two teams, the Cowboys have a genuine balance on the Offensive side of the ball with Ezekiel Elliot capable of pounding the ball behind this Offensive Line and Dak Prescott a Quarter Back who is blessed with plenty of Receiving weapons.

Washington have played well, even with the injuries they have been dealing with, but that balance will test them in a different way. The Football Team have made big plays to change the momentum in games, but I think this is a very tough test for them against a Cowboys team that have had considerable success on this field in recent years.

You have to believe Dallas can score plenty more points than the Seahawks and Raiders and that means there is a pressure on Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Offense. 17 points might have been good enough to win a couple of games, but that is not likely to be the case here and Washington have not been helped by another injury suffered by Logan Thomas.

He is a key weapon for the Quarter Back, so the feeling is that the Football Team are going to rely on Antonio Gibson and look to pound the rock through the Running Back. In recent games the Cowboys Defensive Line have been vulnerable to the run, but the likes of Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory are back in Week 14 and I do think that can help, especially as the Football Team's Offensive Line have not opened big holes for their Backs.

Taylor Heinicke has largely avoided making mistakes and he has made some big throws at key times to keep drives moving, but he could be faced with some serious pressure with the Cowboys likely back to full strength up front. An aggressive Dallas Secondary will give up some big plays, but Heinicke has to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the Defensive Backs and I think the Cowboys can show up and produce a win that will almost certainly wrap up the Division.

Washington do have some solid numbers against the spread that have to be respected, but the Dallas Cowboys have been really impressive at the window when it comes to playing teams from the NFC and when they are on the road. They are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games and Dallas have covered in seven in a row against Conference rivals, while they also tend to play the NFC East rivals very effectively.

The underdog has had a really good job in this rivalry, but Dallas are 5-2 against the spread in seven visits to FedExField and I think they can cover here with a healthier looking team and with the additional time to prepare for the game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans Pick: The injury that cost Russell Wilson several weeks may be the pivotal moment of the 2021 season for the Seattle Seahawks (4-8), but a win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 has barely kept them alive as far as the PlayOffs are concerned. You have to believe that the Seahawks are going to have to win at least four of their remaining five games and then hope for some fortune, but they do have a chance to build on that victory over a Divisional rival.

A non-Conference game may not be the most important on the seventeen game schedule, but at this point of the season every game matters and it would be a devastating blow for the Seahawks if they were to lose here. They are facing the Houston Texans (2-10) who are clearly going to be thinking about their Draft position going forward and one that is reshaping the roster after cutting Zach Cunningham this week.

Zach Cunningham has been considered one of the better Defensive players the Texans had left on the roster, but there is a culture shift going on here and the season cannot really end quickly enough for Houston. It has been a difficult season and Head Coach David Culley has announced that Davis Mills will be the Quarter Back for the team.

It has been a really difficult year Offensively for the Texans, but they will want to play with more pride after being kept scoreless in the defeat to the Colts in Week 13. Davis Mills should be able to have more success against the Seahawks when you think of some of the Defensive breakdowns that Seattle have had, but Houston are not very good on this side of the ball and I certainly would not be overly expectant of their capabilities to score points.

Houston are not going to be expected to run the ball with any great success and especially not with the recent upturn in performance from the Seattle Defensive Line. That means Davis Mills being in third and long spots behind a struggling Offensive Line and even a limited pass rush like the one that the Seahawks are generating should be good enough to get after him.

While there are holes in the Seattle Secondary, Davis Mills has not really shown that he is capable of exposing them and certainly not on a consistent basis. He has to avoid mistakes to give his own Defensive unit a chance to step up and make plays, but Mills will have a tough day making the plays on his own with the limitations of the skill players around him as well as the Offensive Line.

The spot is an obvious concern for Seattle as is all the money the public are putting on the road favourite, but this is an important game for the Seahawks as they look to edge a little closer to the top seven in the NFC. They do have another Divisional game coming up in Week 15 to sandwich a non-Conference outing, but as I have mentioned above, Seattle can ill-afford more than one more loss if they are going to have a chance of playing post-season Football.

Russell Wilson has not really looked completely at ease with his injury since returning earlier than initially thought, but he has been improving and I think that will be the case again in Week 14. This time he is facing a Houston Defensive unit that have made sure they have not allowed their level to drop, but one that has been on the field for far too long and can be worn down.

Play-calling from the Seahawks has been a little questionable since Wilson returned and they would be well advised to actually use the Offensive Line in the way they enjoy the most- run blocking. The Texans have been horrible stopping the run all season and in recent games Seattle have made big gains on the ground before the pass protection has broken down or they have begun to chase games.

That should not be an excuse in Week 14 and I think Alex Collins can set the Seahawks up by pounding the ball on the ground and making sure Russell Wilson is not left exposed by the Offensive Line in third and long spots. Zach Cunningham is gone so you do have to wonder if the Houston pass rush will suffer somewhat, but they are capable of getting to the Quarter Back so being in front of the chains is massively important for Seattle.

I expect they can do that and it should open up the passing lanes for Russell Wilson who still has plenty of quality in the Receiving positions to have a big game. The Texans Secondary has actually played well in recent games and not given Quarter Backs big games, but that is also partly down to the fact that teams have been able to run on them all day long and it should be a relatively comfortable day for Seattle.

As I have mentioned, the spot is not ideal between games with San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams, but Houston have been largely uncompetitive of late and Seattle did blow out the Jacksonville Jaguars, albeit at home.

Seattle have some terrible trends as a road favourite and when playing off a win, but Houston are 0-4 against the spread in their last four following a double digit loss at home. They are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when losing in blow out fashion as they did to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 and I think Seattle can do enough to win this one going away from their hosts.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There were plenty of questions being asked of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) a few weeks ago, but five straight wins have seen them surge to the top of the AFC West. They are firmly involved in the race to finish as the Number 1 Seed in the Conference too, although it might be a little intimidating for other teams to hear that the Chiefs feel there are still gears to move through before this season comes to an end.

All four teams in the AFC West are still battling for PlayOff spots and that means Kansas City can not take their eye off the ball with five games left to play in the regular season. They do have a potentially pivotal game against the Los Angeles Chargers coming up on Thursday Night Football in Week 15 and that is a potential distraction considering they hold a blow out win over the opponent they face this week.

The Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) have every chance of finishing strong and battling into the top seven in this Conference, but they have lost four of their last five games and injuries have been hurting this team. Everyone knows the situation around Henry Ruggs, but Darren Waller has been missing with an injury and I do think that hurts the Raiders massively on the Offensive side of the ball.

Las Vegas have been struggling Offensively for a few weeks and now they have to face a Kansas City team that have earned this five game winning run thanks to the strong Defensive performances being produced. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in any game since the end of October and they have already showcased their ability on this side of the ball in the heavy win over the Raiders in Week 10.

While the game is close, the Raiders can lean on Josh Jacobs who should be able to find some room to attack the Chiefs on the ground, but I still think that is a tough ask for the Raiders. You have think the Chiefs will know about that and taking away Jacobs would mean an inconsistent passing game led by Derek Carr is all that is between them and a sixth win.

Josh Jacobs has shown decent hands when Receiving too, but Las Vegas have to stay in front of the chains if only to ease the Kansas City pass rush, which has helped this Chiefs team push forward.

The Raiders should have some success throwing the ball, but in recent weeks it has been a tough task for opponents and I do think it should be the side of the ball in which Kansas City are most comfortable.

It will surprise many to read that when considering the quality of Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back for Kansas City, but it has been a difficult stretch for him, arguably the most difficult since he joined the pro ranks. The numbers are not too bad, but Kansas City can't get out of their own way at times, although the best performance produced by Mahomes this season came in the win over the Raiders.

Running the ball will be a challenge for Kansas City and that will mean leaning on Patrick Mahomes even more, but I do think he can do what needs to be done to keep the chains moving. He can scramble away from pressure, but Mahomes is also capable of spreading the ball all around and there should be plenty of time given to the Quarter Back by his Offensive Line.

Kansas City should have enough to ease past Las Vegas as long as the Thursday Night Football came is one they can put to the back of the mind. That is going to be tough considering how important that game could be in the Divisional race in the AFC West, but the Chiefs won't have forgotten the home loss to the Raiders in 2020 and I expect that will mean Kansas City should be motivated to make a statement.

A loss would also give the Raiders life in the Divisional race so it is important for the Chiefs to focus.

The Chiefs have been a poor home favourite to back and Las Vegas have been a really good road underdog, but Kansas City are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against this Divisional rival here and I think they will be able to cover a big number.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets Pick: Five losses in a row will hurt any team in the NFL, even with the extended seventeen game regular season, but the New Orleans Saints (5-7) are still alive when it comes to fighting for position in the PlayOffs. Injuries have decimated the team over the last few weeks and that has seen them slump away from the top of the NFC South and now struggling to keep up with those teams in the Wild Card places.

Some of those injuries look to be clearing up and the Saints are a big favourite to win in Week 14, although they are heading out on the road. Some of that is down to the fact that the Saints are facing the New York Jets (3-9) who are close to being eliminated from the post-season.

The Jets were blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13 and they are also dealing with injuries and the team may have already begun to think about the end of another season that comes without a PlayOff place attached to it. A non-Conference game may not mean as much to New York who are hosting Divisional rivals Miami next week and looking to play spoiler for them, while an inconsistent Jets team may have some difficulty getting on top of a New Orleans team that may be as healthy as they can be.

Alvin Kamara is the biggest name that could return, but the Offensive Line may be restored to full health and Cameron Jordan is expected to be back for the Defensive Line. That is really important for the New Orleans Saints who have a huge game coming up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but who can't afford to drop this game if they are going to finish in the top seven in the NFC.

Having Kamara back and Taysom Hill at Quarter Back should mean New Orleans are able to have success moving the ball on the ground, although that will also mean going against the best unit the New York Jets have. The Jets Defensive Line have been pretty stout against the run, but with the Saints looking like they could have their Offensive Line back intact, I think it is a chance for the road team to at least move into a position where they can open up the passing lanes.

Taysom Hill is going to play through an injury, and he did have some issues throwing the ball in Week 13, but he also had some very big plays against the Dallas Cowboys and he should be able to move the ball against this Jets Secondary. In recent weeks, the Jets Secondary have played better and the Saints don't have the most recognisable of Receiving corps, but Hill showed he can help this Offense find a spark that has been missing of late and that should see them have more success than they have been used to.

Injuries have been an issue for the New Orleans Saints, but it has been a major problem for the New York Jets and there are a number of players that will be missing. Corey Davis will be a big miss in the Wideout spots, and the Jets have had issues finding consistency on the Offensive side of the ball throughout this season.

Michael Carter is one of the players that will be missing for the Jets and he had given them a spark at Running Back, but it may still be possible to have some joy pounding the rock. That will only be an option as long as the Jets keep this game close, but over the last three games the Saints have struggled to stop the run and Sean Payton will be looking to have spent the extra time between games to get this team back to basics.

The Secondary are still playing well and I do think the potential return of Cameron Jordan is big news for the Saints Defensive Line as they look to snap their run of losses. He can help the pass rush get after Zach Wilson against this New York Offensive Line and I do think the Saints can win by around a Touchdown on the road.

In recent weeks the Saints have not been a good favourite to back, but under Sean Payton they have been a strong road favourite. The New York Jets have been struggling with players perhaps looking ahead to the end of the season and I think that could see them struggle to remain competitive, especially with a Divisional game on deck that could serve as a distraction for the Jets.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Chicago Bears + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2020- Anthony Joshua vs Kubrat Pulev (December 12th)

The Heavyweight Division in Boxing is always going to be the glamour Division, but last weekend we saw the Welterweight Division receive a boost thanks to the return of Errol Spence Jr.

Welterweights tend to bring in the big money after the Heavyweights and everyone has to be hoping that we are going to see Spence Jr and Terence Crawford getting it on sooner rather than later, although I would not hold my breath to think we will see it in 2021 and especially not if we are not going to have the big crowds back until the second half of the year.

Both can still be involved in decent fights in a loaded Division, but most fans won't be interested until the two unbeaten, pound for pound stars are sharing a ring.

This week we are back with the Heavyweights and the feeling is that we are closer than ever to finally seeing the Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury bouts that so many have argued about in recent years. I say bouts plural because it sounds like a template for a two fight deal has been arranged,  but this is another I won't be holding my breath for having see it come close to fruition in the past only to be let down.

Tyson Fury vs Anthony Joshua for all of the Heavyweight trinkets would be the biggest fight that could be made in Boxing, but it seems many are more interested in arranging rubbish YouTube fights than the actual legacy fights that all fans would want to see.

This would actually be the biggest sporting event that could take place in Britain (and yes I know Wembley Stadium is hosting the Euro 2020 Final next year), but first AJ has to make sure he gets through his mandatory and not suffer the same fate that befell him last year at Madison Square Garden.

It is a deep card, although perhaps not as impressive as it may have been, and one I will join once the Manchester derby has been played.

Qais Ashfaq vs Ashley Lane

Opening the card on Saturday will be Qais Ashfaq who is looking to bounce back from his first professional defeat in October.

It was an upset defeat for Ashfaq when going down to Marc Leach and he is going to have show he has more punch resistance than he showed having been put down twice by an opponent who is not really known for his power.

This is something of a step back for Ashfaq as he takes on Ashley Lane who has won seven of his last eight fights to improve his recored to 14-9-2 as a professional. At one stage it felt like Lane was going to be a journeyman who might be used for prospects to earn some experience, but that run will have encouraged Ashley Lane and certainly give him a little more belief in his ability to cause an upset.

Ashley Lane has been stopped five times in his nine defeats, but he has shown a lot more durability in recent times and I do think the Eight Rounder will make it difficult for Qais Ashfaq to force a stoppage.

I do think he will show he is the better Boxer though and can work his way to a Decision win here as he recovers from his defeat a couple of months ago. The feeling is that Ashley Lane will push forward, but Qais Ashfaq may not want to take too many risks to look for the stoppage as he will just want to get back to winning ways.

Florian Marku vs Jamie Stewart

In the last couple of months Florian Marku has raised his profile through social media and joining up with Matchroom and he makes his debut under their banner on a big card.

His original opponent pulled out and Jamie Stewart stepped in as the unbeaten fighter hounded Eddie Hearn for an opportunity.

There isn't a lot to say about Jamie Stewart who has won both fights he has had on the cards, but keeping Florian Marku at bay is a big step up from his previous level. The reality is we don't really know what Marku is going to bring to the table, but I would be very surprised if Matchroom have not put him in with someone who will give the Albanian a chance to 'steal the show' with a big early stoppage.

Matchroom have to be credited for the way they tend to manage prospects who they are trying to push to a wider market and I do think that is what they see in Florian Marku. There has been talk about the likes of Conor Benn and Chris Kongo, but those fights will come for Marku who has an eye-catching style which is expected to be on full display on Saturday.

An early stoppage has to be expected and I think that will at least Florian Marku up for some bigger fights through 2021.

Martin Bakole vs Sergey Kuzmin

There are a number of Heavyweight fights on the undercard in London on Saturday and this is a crossroads one between Martin Bakole and Sergey Kuzmin.

Both have only suffered one previous defeat which has come against the same opponent, Michael Hunter, and you have to feel the winner may push on towards a World Title shot in the next eighteen months while the losing fighter may become a gatekeeper at this level.

There should be some heavy fists flying in this one and I don't think either is going to have to search too hard to find the other in the ring on Saturday night.

I do think Martin Bakole may have a bit more power than Sergey Kuzmin, although the latter may be the slightly better Boxer. That may see Kuzmin leading at half way, but I am expecting Bakole's pressure to begin to tell through the second half of the fight when he should be able to land some of the power shots to give himself a chance of ending things inside the distance.

With both Bakole and Kuzmin knowing what is at stake, I would not be surprised if the early Rounds see both looking to avoid making a big mistake. However that should change as soon as some fatigue begins to come into play and I do think Martin Bakole will begin to land at will the longer the fight goes which should see him end things late.

Hughie Fury vs Mariusz Wach

We have yet to see Hughie Fury have the same kind of success as cousin Tyson, but it is still funny to think that the former is only 26 years old and still heading towards his peak.

Three losses have come at the hands of former World Champions Joseph Parker and Alexander Povetkin and also a defeat to Kubrat Pulev who is in the main event. The style has sometimes been criticised with fans hoping Hughie Fury would be more ready to let his hands go, but he is a Boxer first and foremost and it has been good enough to see him get to a certain level.

He now takes on a former World Title challenger in Mariusz Wach, but the Polish fighters best days are behind him.

The 40 year old has lost his last four fights of any note and there is a feeling that Wach has lost some of his punch resistance despite going the distance against Dillian Whyte last year. He is not going to be as quick off the mark and I do think Hughie Fury should be able to do enough to out-land him and win clear on the cards.

I would be surprised if Fury decides to stand and perhaps go for the finish against what has been a pretty durable opponent through his career, but I do think he will do enough to win a fight that has the potential to be a pretty boring one if I am honest.

Lawrence Okolie vs Nikodem Jezewski

This should have been a World Title fight for The Sauce, but a late withdrawal means this is going to be a secondary WBO Title bout and you do have to wonder if there is going to be motivation issues for Lawrence Okolie.

In the New Year Okolie is likely to have that World Title fight but he has to focus on unbeaten Nikodem Jezewski who has come in at late notice.

This is a big step up for Jezewski and I do think it may take a couple of Rounds for Lawrence Okolie to get over the fact there is not a World Title on the line. I am not a massive fan of Okolie as I tend to find his fights pretty boring with a lot of hugging and mauling, but there isn't much on his opponent's record to believe that he is going to be able to stay with what is a power puncher when he does let his hands go.

Lawrence Okolie is a big Cruiserweight and I do think he will find Jezewski standing in front of him and looking to fight fire with fire and that should lead to a fairly early night in the office. The last couple of opponents have managed to get into the Seventh Round against Okolie, but I am not sure Nikodem Jezewski has more to offer on late notice and I would expect the favourite to end this one within the first Six Rounds.

Anthony Joshua vs Kubrat Pulev

If I am honest I don't care what the broadcasters are trying to sell me about Kubrat Pulev's chances of the upset in this main event.

Anything but an Anthony Joshua win would be a massive surprise and my only question is whether the British fighter has perhaps gotten a little concerned about pulling the trigger after the upset against Andy Ruiz Jr last year.

I don't think that is the case and I expect Anthony Joshua to dismiss the Bulgarian opponent relatively quickly.

A few years ago Kubrat Pulev was blown away by Wladimir Klitschko and I actually feel Anthony Joshua is a much better finisher than the Ukrainian long-time World Champion. While Klitschko took some time to finish off Pulev, I expect Joshua to really go after him if he hurts Pulev and I am expecting him to produce a big finish.

I am not dismissing the Pulev skills with his experience, but only 14 of his 28 wins have come via stoppage and I do think he believes he is tougher and more rugged than he perhaps is. The Bulgarian has won eight times since the defeat to Klitschko, but he was dropped multiple times in that Fifth Round defeat and Pulev hasn't exactly impressed.

A Split Decision over Dereck Chisora and another Decision against Hughie Fury will not worry Anthony Joshua who clearly has plenty of power. He won't take too long to decipher what he is seeing from a basic style and I expect Anthony Joshua to go through the gears and produce a relatively early night in the office as he prepares to try and do a deal with Tyson Fury for a huge fight in 2021.

MY PICKS: Qais Ashfaq to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Florian Marku to Win Between 1-2 @ 2.62 William Hill (2 Units)

Martin Bakole to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Hughie Fury to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-6 @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Anthony Joshua to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

College Football Week 15 Picks 2020 (December 12th)

The final week of the regular season is being played in the 2020 College Football year before we head into the Championship Games.

It has been a tough season for many with games being cancelled and others being re-arranged, but we are nearing the end and many of the players will grow from what has been a testing experience.

I am hopeful that the 2021 season will be much more 'normal' with crowds likely to return in bigger numbers than we have seen in 2020 and the pandemic in much better control than it is currently.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Missouri Tigers Pick: Neither of these teams are going to be playing in the SEC Championship Game as they trail Florida in the SEC East, but the winning team in Week 15 may be pushing for a significant Bowl Game.

Both the Georgia Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers have winning records with the former at 6-2 and the latter at 5-3 and both teams have winning runs to extend.

Much of what happens in this game will be used by the two teams to build for the 2021 season when they will feel they can get closer to the Gators and perhaps even push past them. The Georgia Bulldogs will always have National Championship aspirations, while the Missouri Tigers have played in the SEC Championship Game since joining the Conference so there is not underestimating the direction in which the Bulldogs and Tigers could be heading.

The Covid-19 pandemic has made 2020 much more difficult to negotiate than even the usually tough College Football season. The lack of preparation time in the summer and not being able to ease your way into a season has meant some players have had teething issues in the regular season, but we are seeing improvements now.

Players opting out certainly did not help some of the top schools and that was something Georgia were not prepared for, but now JT Daniels is picking up vital experience which could set him on a very good path for 2021. The young Quarter Back has a big reputation around him and he has helped spark the Georgia Bulldogs Offensively, although this may be the toughest opponent Daniels has faced in the SEC.

He should be given some support from the running game as the Georgia Offensive Line has begun to dominate the trenches and that should at least open things up for Daniels to throw the ball down the field. However the Missouri Secondary has played really well and JT Daniels will be aware that the Georgia Offensive Line has not been as protective of him at Quarter Back as they have in opening rushing lanes.

The Tigers Defensive Line have been able to generate pressure on the Quarter Back and this may be the best way to disrupt the Georgia Offense which has been on something of a roll of late.

While the Bulldogs are likely going to have success running the ball, it may be more difficult for Missouri despite how well they have been playing. The Tigers have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground, but Georgia's Defensive Line have been dominant in the trenches and been able to clamp down on the run which will make things very difficult for the home team.

On the other hand the Bulldogs Secondary have struggled to slow down the pass and Connor Bazelak has been able to have plenty of success from the Missouri Quarter Back position. He has been well protected too and I think that is going to be the main reason the Tigers are able to hang with the improved Georgia Bulldogs in this Week 15 game.

Connor Bazelak has made the right decisions and I do think he can throw open some running lanes if the Bulldogs have to take away some of the players at the line of scrimmage to stop Missouri through the air. It should help provide some balance, although JT Daniels will have seen how much success the Arkansas Razorbacks had in throwing against the Tigers Secondary last week.

Both teams may be able to move the chains and so the points being offered to the home underdog looks pretty appealing here. The Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games against the Georgia Bulldogs too.

Missouri are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the home underdog and I will back them with the points here.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The ACC Championship Game is going to be competed by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Clemson Tigers, but the next level down in the Conference is filled with the likes of the Miami Hurricanes and the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Hurricanes are 8-1 this season and have a sole loss to the Tigers on their record, while the Tar Heels have been a little more inconsistent and are at 7-3.

With that in mind the winning team will likely improve their standings when it comes to Bowl selections later this month and a rivalry should mean both teams have plenty of motivation behind them.

Miami might have been out of contention for some time when it comes to working their way into the Championship Game, but they have won five in a row and that will give them belief. They are playing well and even a Covid-19 outbreak has not been able to slow down the team who with improving health should have a much shorter list of absentees compared with Week 14 when they blew out the Duke Blue Devils.

There is plenty of balance to like about the Miami Hurricanes on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that is going to be key for them in moving the chains for much of the afternoon. D'Eriq King has been everything the Hurricanes have wanted at Quarter Back having gotten him in transferred from Houston and his dual-threat ability from the position has sparked the Hurricanes.

I am not sure the Hurricanes will rip off massive plays on the ground, but they can stay in front of the chains and that is very important for Miami. Being able to establish the run will just make it a little easier for the Offensive Line to give King time at Quarter Back to make his plays down the field whether he decides to tuck the ball and run or throw into the North Carolina Secondary.

There are some serious weapons that D'Eriq King can target and I do think he is going to have a strong game which will give Miami Hurricanes the points to win the game. The Quarter Back has taken care of the ball and I expect King to have a good showing which will put pressure on the North Carolina Tar Heels to keep up.

Revenge will be on the minds of the Miami Hurricanes who were upset by the North Carolina Tar Heels on the road last season, but Sam Howell is also plenty more experienced now. The Quarter Back has had a very good season for the Tar Heels and Sam Howell will be confident, but he is facing a Miami Hurricanes Defensive unit that have performed at a high level.

It may all come down to how well Sam Howell plays because the Hurricanes Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run. While the Tar Heels won't want to get away from the run and become predictable, I do think Miami can at least force Sam Howell into a couple of third and long spots which could see them turn the game in their favour.

I wouldn't want to underestimate Sam Howell, but he is playing behind a porous Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection. While the Tar Heels have not been the best in pass protection, the Hurricanes have been able to get a huge amount of pressure on opposition Quarter Backs and they might be able to rattle Howell into a couple of errant throws.

He will have to be aware of the turnovers that the Miami Secondary can create and I think motivation for revenge for last season will help the home team win a high scoring game. Home advantage has tended to be important in this rivalry with the last eight games seeing the home team go 7-1 against the spread and I do think that will be key here too.

North Carolina are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog and they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record at home.

The Hurricanes are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the favourite and 7-3 against the spread in their last ten against a team with a winning record. In what should be an up and down game with both Offensive units moving the ball successfully, I think Miami will make a few more plays Defensively which helps them win and cover.

Houston Cougars @ Memphis Tigers Pick: Like many teams and Conferences in College Football there is going to be a disparity with number of games played and so the Bowl selection process is going to be a little more confusing than usual. In normal times aiming for six wins would at least make you eligible for selection, but some teams are not going to have played six games all season in what has been a difficult 2020.

Both of these teams have at least played six games as the 3-3 Houston Cougars get set to take on the 6-3 Memphis Tigers, although nothing has been plain-sailing for either. They have both missed out on the American Athletic Championship Game, but at least Memphis should be a little more game ready than their visitors who are playing for the first time in almost a month.

That was always going to be an issue with Covid-19 continuing to spread across the United States unchecked, but none of the players are going to want to use it as an excuses if they feel they are underperforming. It does feel like the game is going to be more important for Houston as they look to finish above 0.500 to boost their Bowl chances, but the Memphis Tigers have Senior players involved in what could be their last College game and that can't be underestimated either.

Memphis saw their three game winning run ended in a loss to the Tulane Green Wave in Week 14, but they were not favoured on the road and being a home underdog is a different kind of experience for many associated with this team. The Tigers have been used to winning and they will certainly feel they are playing well enough to avoid back to back defeats for the first time in 2020.

I am also expecting the Tigers to rally around Quarter Back Brady White who is looking to set a new record for passing yards in Memphis as he overcomes a record mark set by Danny Wimprine in the early years of this century. Brady White has led the team to a record number of wins from a starting Quarter Back in his time with Memphis and he will feel he can have a big game against a Houston Secondary which can give up some big plays.

It should be a relatively comfortable game for White who plays behind an Offensive Line that can protect him, but any Houston pass rush is also expected to be eased by the Tigers rushing attack. While Memphis haven't been the most productive team on the ground, they have done enough to believe they can hurt a Cougars Defensive Line which has given up some eye-watering numbers the last few times we saw them on the field.

They have had a month to fix some of those issues which should help, but I expect Memphis to have a good balance Offensively which should keep Houston on the back foot.

That will mean the Cougars need to turn to Clayton Tune to keep them moving forward on the scoreboard and the dual-threat Quarter Back is someone that can make life easier for the rest of the Offensive unit. I do feel Tune is more productive with his legs than his arms having thrown 11 Touchdown passes with 6 Interceptions, but the Memphis Defensive Line have really knuckled down at the line of scrimmage and pride themselves on trying to slow down the run.

It could be a key to the whole outcome of this game with the team winning that battle in the trenches likely going to be set up to have an overall success in the game.

The seasonal numbers suggest Clayton Tune will have his moments throwing the ball, but if Houston are struggling to run the ball efficiently he will have to deal with the Tigers pass rush and also a Secondary which have turned the ball over.

I have to say I do think Memphis are being given too many points here and they have covered the last five times these rivals have played one another.

The Tigers look like a team that may strike the better balance Offensively and the lack of game time has to mean Houston are a little rusty in this one.

Memphis have covered in the last four games they have been set as the home underdog and I am looking for that position to inspire them here. On the other side Houston are 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games as the road favourite and at the very least I expect the Tigers to be within touching distance of the upset at the end of the game which makes the points over a key number of 3 look pretty good.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Baylor Bears Pick: At one point it looked like the Oklahoma State Cowboys were the best bet for the Big 12 Conference to earn a spot in the College Football PlayOff, but the team have dropped games to the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners as well as the TCU Horned Frogs. Now there is not only no concern about trying to earn their spot in the PlayOff, but the Cowboys have missed out on the Big 12 Championship Game too which will be contested by their rivals the Sooners and the Iowa State Cyclones.

At 6-3 for the season, Oklahoma State are going to be in line for a decent Bowl selection and winning this game is important to improve the status of that Bowl Game. Even with that in mind, Mike Gundy is far from impressed that his team have fallen from their 4-0 start to the season and I think the Head Coach is going to need to be picked up as much as the players.

They will end the regular season with a trip to the Baylor Bears who have played better than their 2-6 record may suggest. Last week they pushed the Oklahoma Sooners and the Baylor loss by 13 points is actually their largest margin of defeat for the season which underlines the competitive nature of this team.

I have to be a little concerned that the Bears put in as much effort as they did to fall short in their Week 14 defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners, especially as they have nothing to gain from this final game. They might be encouraged to play spoiler, and they are facing an Oklahoma State Offensive unit which struggled last week against the Horned Frogs as injuries have piled up on both sides of the ball.

The Cowboys may feel they can establish the run even in the absence of their top Back Chuba Hubbard and it is certainly going to be a key part of this game for Oklahoma State. If the Offensive Line can win the battle in the trenches it should make things more comfortable all around for the passing game as the Bears pass rush would likely be slowed down just long enough.

Throwing the ball against the Bears has not been easy in recent games and that will be encouraging to the home team, but they will have to find a way to at least try and slow things on the ground.

Stopping the run has been a problem for the Cowboys Defensive Line in recent weeks, but they might have gotten a break by going up against the Bears in Week 15. The Baylor Offensive Line has not played well at all in recent games with little room for the rushing Offense and porous pass protection of Charlie Brewer at Quarter Back.

Charlie Brewer can make some plays with his legs and scored a Touchdown on the ground last week, but he will be confident he can make some big time throws against the injury hit Cowboys Secondary. The key for the Quarter Back will be getting the time for his Receivers to complete their routes down the field, but that has not always been something Brewer has been blessed with and he has to make sure he is not pushing too hard which could lead to Interceptions when throwing under duress.

Baylor haven't had anything to play for in much of the 2020 season but have remained competitive, but I am not sure the Cowboys can manage to do the same amidst the disappointment of missing out on the Big 12 Championship Game. Add in the fact that injuries have hurt the Cowboys on both sides of the ball and I think Baylor can take advantage with Charlie Brewer making enough big throws to keep this one close.

The Bears are 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this rivalry.

Oklahoma State are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five as the road favourite and they have not covered in their last five in Conference play. On the other side Baylor are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen as the home underdog and I think they may be in receipt of enough points to stay within the number.

LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators Pick: An investigation is continuing by the NCAA to work out whether the LSU Tigers have been taking improper payments from their boosters that were passed onto the players. That investigation has seen the Tigers decide to get ahead of things and punish themselves and this week they asked to be withdrawn from Bowl consideration for one year.

At 3-5 the defending National Champions may not have been involved in a big Bowl Game anyway and this has been a really disappointing season for LSU who were last seen being blown out by the Alabama Crimson Tide at home in Week 14. The record has seen a number of players withdraw from being considered for the last two weeks of the regular season as their personal attention shifts to getting into perfect shape for the NFL Combine and Draft coming up in the months ahead.

Last week they were blown out by the SEC West representative in the Championship Game and the Tigers don't have it much easier in Week 15 as they prepare to take on the SEC East representatives. The Florida Gators have won their Division and have an 8-1 record this season, bu the defeat to the Texas A&M Aggies may mean they will only be considered for the College Football PlayOff if they win this game and the Championship Game next week.

Style points could be important for the Gators who will know the Aggies are a potential rival for the College Football PlayOff spot if they finish their own season strongly having only been beaten by the Crimson Tide. That should keep Florida focused as they look to avoid an upset that will likely see them out of the PlayOff even if they were to upset Alabama next week.

Kyle Trask leads the Florida Gators and he has thrown 38 Touchdown passes with just 3 Interceptions this season. There was a little bit of irritation from Head Coach Dan Mullen that Florida were not able to take better advantage of their field position in the tighter than expected win over the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 14, but Trask shouldn't have too many problems moving the chains in this one and especially if the Tigers continue to play the pass as they have been.

It has been on the Quarter Back because the Gators have not really established the run in recent games as they would have liked. However it does feel like the Florida Offensive Line should have more success on the ground against the LSU Defensive Line which has given up 177 yards per game on the ground across their last three starts.

Moving the ball in third and manageable spots should make life very comfortable for Kyle Trask who should be able to attack a young Secondary that have made some big mistakes. His Offensive Line have been very good at protecting Trask and giving him time and the Tigers have had a limited pass rush in recent games which should mean Florida have a chance to produce a big Offensive game to offer encouragement ahead of the SEC Championship Game.

Injuries and withdrawals have also hurt the LSU Tigers on the Offensive side of the ball and I don't think it will be much different in Week 15 against an improving Florida Defensive unit. The Gators Defensive Line have been very good at clamping down on the run in their last three games and the Tigers have not been able to stay with the run as they have fallen into holes on the scoreboard.

Even then, LSU have tried to get things going for their Running Backs without any real success and that will mean whoever lines up at Quarter Back could be under pressure. No matter who it is, inexperience could be a problem for the Tigers who will be struggle in pass protection against the fierce Florida pass rush that has been generated.

The Secondary have given up one or two big plays and that has allowed teams to put up some points, but Florida will believe making LSU one-dimensional should allow their Defensive Line to take over this game. That could lead to Quarter Back mistakes and Florida could be in line for a big win over LSU as Alabama managed in Week 14.

It is not a big surprise that LSU have some very strong trends behind them considering how well this team was playing last year and they have been a strong underdog to back. However they didn't compete with Alabama at all last week and couldn't stop them at all and I have a feeling something similar may occur on Saturday.

Florida have a 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six games as the home favourite and I will back them to go into the SEC Championship Game with some real belief and momentum thanks to a big win here.

MY PICKS: Missouri Tigers + 14 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Memphis Tigers + 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Baylor Bears + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Florida Gators - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (December 11-13)

It's been going on for years and now the media want to pull back and take no responsibility for the pretty crappy scenes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

How long has it been obvious the media have had it in for Sterling and how long must people outside of that profession note the racial undertones to the criticism? I've tweeted on at least two previous occasions that the media are a joke for the way they disparage Sterling and I've noted some of the stories that seem to be led by the fact he is a young, black player and he, among others, are held to a standard that doesn't seem to apply to young, white players.

Others have been criticised and it seems those are based around the colour of the skin- I have written down my disgust at Mark Lawrenson's apparent disregard for Darren Moore being given the WBA permanent manager's job back in April, yet I don't hear the same for Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard who have been given similar breaks and arguably with less experience Moore had at managing at the highest level.

Again that felt more about Darren Moore being an inexperienced, black manager and being held to a higher standard than inexperienced, white managers tend to be.

The media can now look to put their hands up and try and act like it has nothing to do with them that Sterling was targeted for abuse, but they have put him in that position. It's no point highlighting his positive aspects now when they have spent years breaking down his character and portraying an image for people to consume about Sterling, people who have never met him.

I've got no personal affiliation with Sterling- he has played for the two clubs I dislike the most in the Premier League. However I am also very aware of the issues ethnic minorities face in the UK and for a long time I think Sterling has taken the brunt of the abuse that typically middle class, white journalists have had for him.

It's been nothing short of a bullying campaign and one that has enabled those racist idiots at Chelsea to feel they can use some of the rubbish they did and feel they will be able to get away with it in a Stadium of 40,000 people.

An utter disgrace to say the least.


This is an issue that will soon be swept under the carpet by those journalists who are faking outrage at the moment and nothing will be resolved. The football will also move on and this week we have the final round robin of Group matches in both the Champions League and Europa League.

A number of teams have already secured passage to the Knock Out Rounds of those competitions, but order of places are still up for grabs and others still have work to do.

Barcelona, Porto and Real Madrid are the only guaranteed Group Winners, but the likes of Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain may be favoured to join them. It makes finishing 2nd in a Group really tough considering the kind of Last 16 that likely awaits and it would be something of a surprise if the eventual Champions League Winners are not from that list of eight teams provided.

Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool would likely have something to say about that, but the former have blown their chance to win the Group ahead of Atletico Madrid and need a huge favour from Club Brugge to do that, while the latter is not guaranteed of making the Last 16 at all.

It is obvious that Porto would be the 'plumb' draw for any Runner Up, but we will see how it all shakes up on Tuesday and Wednesday before the Last 16 draw is made next Monday.

The Europa League Group Stage is also concluded on Thursday and it is a big day for Scottish Football as both Celtic and Rangers look to make it through to the Last 32. Celtic are more likely to do that than Rangers, but I wouldn't rule out the latter either as they look to join Arsenal and Chelsea who have already made it through the Group.

Like the Champions League, Group Winners and Runners Up are separated and drawn together, but again we will see how it shakes up before those Last 32 ties are paired together for February 2019.


Schalke v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: The standings are already in place in this Group with Porto going through as the Winners and Schalke finishing up as Runners Up. That can make it very difficult to predict how a dead rubber is going to go, but Lokomotiv Moscow do head to Germany with something to play for.

The Russian Champions looked an uneasy top Seed when the draw for the Champions League was made and it has proven to be the case as they are bottom of the section. Now they need to win in Germany and hope Galatasaray are not able to beat Porto at home, but their own part is not going to be easy for Lokomotiv Moscow.

The side have been beaten comfortably in both home games played and Schalke have to be thinking about bouncing back immediately after losing to Borussia Dortmund here in the derby this past weekend. Prior to that result Schalke had won 3 in a row at home and they score plenty of goals which makes them very dangerous.

A lack of motivation has to be a concern for home backers, but Schalke have seen their price drop over the last couple of days and I do want to be behind them here too. I think that lack of motivation has been factored into the prices and Schalke are a strong home team who may be able to exploit gaps if Lokomotiv Moscow have to chase the game.

With the goals being scored by Schalke in front of their own fans, I think the Bundesliga club can get the better of Lokomotiv Moscow who can head into their Winter Break ready to focus on their return to domestic matters in the new calendar year.


Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid Pick: A couple of years ago Club Brugge really struggled when they earned their place in the Champions League Group Stage but they are far better this time around. In what was a tougher Group, Club Brugge have really found some positive results and the draw at Borussia Dortmund underlined the progress they have made.

A spot in the Europa League has already been earned, but there will still be much excitement at hosting a team like Atletico Madrid who have been amongst the best in Europe in recent years.

Club Brugge can play spoiler for Atletico Madrid too as their visitors need to win here to secure top spot in this Group. Anything less will give Borussia Dortmund the chance to finish above them in the section and so there is some real pressure on Diego Simeone's men who have not been at their best away from home this season.

With the Champions League Final to be hosted in their Stadium, Atletico Madrid will be keen to earn an 'easier' Last 16 tie which will come as Group Winners. Winning here won't be easy and Club Brugge gave Atletico Madrid something to think about in the reverse fixture in the Group, but you have to really believe the Spanish club are going to dig down deep and earn the result they need.

I can't imagine it being a really high-scoring game so backing Atletico Madrid to win a fixture featuring no more than three goals is the call.


Crvena Zvezda v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Having failed to beat Liverpool and Napoli twice in this Group, Paris Saint-Germain left themselves in a pressurised position in a competition they are desperate to succeed in. The home win over Liverpool on Match Day 5 was huge for them as they now control their own destiny and a win over Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade will be enough to move through to the Last 16.

This won't be a walkover for Paris Saint-Germain as both Napoli and Liverpool have failed to win here. A draw would be complicated for PSG if Liverpool are able to beat Napoli on the same night so the focus has to be a win in Belgrade and potentially winning the Group too.

As a Champions League favourite you have to expect Paris Saint-Germain are able to win here. Crvena Zvezda frustrated Napoli on Match Day 1, but the Italians had a host of chances in that one and PSG have players who are very capable in front of goal.

The Liverpool defeat here complicates the thinking, but I think they were very poor on the night and made it easy for their hosts. If Paris Saint-Germain play as poorly as Liverpool did they deserve to go out of the Champions League, but I think the players are focused having been in a very difficult position a couple of weeks ago and I don't think they let this opportunity slip through their hands.

The Asian Handicap is a big one considering the results Crvena Zvezda have had at home in this Group, but Paris Saint-Germain are the kind of team who can put the lesser lights to the sword as they do back home in France. The first goal will be critical, but if PSG can get that in the first half hour of this game I think they can make it a routine win on the night and move into the Last 16 as Group Winners as long as Napoli have not won at Anfield.


Inter Milan v PSV Eindhoven Pick: There will be some eyes on the game being played at the Nou Camp between Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur, but Inter Milan have to make sure they do all they can to be put into a position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League.

It all means focusing on the fixture to be played at the San Siro on Tuesday as the Champions League Group Stage comes to a close. At the moment Inter Milan are behind Tottenham Hotspur on the head to head, but bettering the score Spurs earn at the Nou Camp will mean Inter Milan overtake them and they have to believe that Barcelona won't lose at home at the very least.

That match in Spain is going to be close and I think Tottenham Hotspur will have their chances, but Inter Milan won't worry too much about that when this fixture kicks off. Instead Inter Milan have to make sure they don't offer PSV Eindhoven any encouragement and perhaps put them in a position where the motivation is taken out of the visitors who are already out of European competition until July 2019 at the earliest.

Inter Milan have been very strong at home so you can see why they are favoured to win this game and I do think they will be able to do that. PSV Eindhoven have to be respected because they have not been blown away in the Champions League despite the obvious raise in quality they are facing, but it has been evident that PSV Eindhoven are simply not quite good enough at this level.

The Dutch Champions are not the best travellers and the attention should be on domestic matters where Ajax have cut the gap between the teams. That potential shift in focus should mean Inter Milan can continue what has been very strong form at home and I think this will be a rare occasion where the Nerazzurri can not only win at the San Siro, but win by a comfortable margin on the night.

All eyes will then shift to Barcelona to see if Tottenham Hotspur have secured the Runners Up spot or not, but for this game I think Inter Milan do their side of the equation as they look to sneak into the Second Round.


Liverpool v Napoli Pick: If someone had said to Jurgen Klopp a win over Napoli at home on Match Day 6 of the Champions League Group Stage would be enough to earn a Last 16 berth I think he would have signed up for it when the draw was made in August. However it is the manner of the way Liverpool have gotten here that will have hurt the manager and now they have a pressurised situation in December that they would have preferred to avoid.

Even then you would think Liverpool are going to come into this one with plenty of confidence having won 7 of their last 9 home Champions League games since August 2017. They have beaten the likes of Manchester City, Roma and Paris Saint-Germain here and scored plenty of goals in those wins, while Liverpool just crushed Bournemouth in the Premier League to move to the top of their domestic League table.

There is no doubt that Liverpool will feel they can score goals against Napoli, but the Italian side should not be overawed by the occasion having played some big games themselves in recent years. Domestically they have improved, but Carlo Ancelotti was brought in as manager to improve Napoli in Europe and being unbeaten through five games in this Group is a real achievement.

Making it six will be enough to make the Last 16, but Napoli have not been the best recent travellers in the Champions League. They are also in a difficult position of trying to work out of they should stick or twist knowing a draw is enough, but I do believe their best policy may be to try and get on the front foot and put their hosts under some pressure.

For all the good defensive work in the Premier League, Liverpool have looked more vulnerable in the Champions League so Napoli should have chances. They have scored at least twice in 4 consecutive away games including in the 2-2 draw at Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli have dangerous customers in the final third that deserve plenty of respect.

However there are some defensive vulnerabilities about Napoli too having conceded at least twice at Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain. It points to an entertaining game at Anfield where the goals could flow as it feels one team will always be chasing something in this fixture.

The first goal is going to be crucial to the outcome of this one and I think both teams will be able to create chances against the other with both expecting to find the net. My initial lean was Liverpool would have too much for Napoli and win this game, but a narrow win in which Napoli score won't be enough so I can see a situation develop where spaces are left by either side as they chase the result they need.

One aspect could change things and that is if there is news Paris Saint-Germain are losing by a wide margin in Serbia. In that case a narrow Liverpool win might suit both these teams involved, but that's a long way away in this match and I am expecting plenty of attacking football to be the order of the day.

Backing at least four goals to be shared out is the call, a play that would have been a victor in 6 of the last 9 Champions League games played at Anfield including both played this season. It was also the outcome of Napoli's trip to Paris Saint-Germain and is an appealing enough price for this important final Group game for the two teams involved.


Monaco v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Match Day 6 can be a tough time to get a read on teams simply as some of the ambitions of the Group would have been completed and managers may choose to rest players ahead of important domestic games.

I am not sure that will be the case in this one though.

Monaco have had a week to prepare for this fixture after seeing their derby game with Nice postponed due to the big protests going on around France over the last couple of weeks. A number of League games were postponed with those protests in mind so Thierry Henry may choose to pick a strong starting eleven to build on the momentum of winning their last League game seven days ago.

That could happen despite Monaco being knocked out of European competition already, but Henry is trying to pick up the confidence of the players for what looks like being a season long struggle to avoid relegation. The recent home is not that inspiring though and Monaco have lost 6 straight Champions League games here as they have struggled defensively to contain the quality of teams they face.

It is certainly a quality team heading to Monaco as Borussia Dortmund still have ambitions of winning this Group despite losing control of the section following a goalless home draw with Club Brugge a couple of weeks ago. For the most part Borussia Dortmund have not put a foot wrong this season which sees them open up a decent lead at the top of the Bundesliga as well as secure a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League.

Borussia Dortmund will still want to win the Group though and they will know a win could be good enough if Atletico Madrid fail to win in Brugge. It isn't out of the question that happens so I believe Dortmund will be motivated to perform here and earn a measure of revenge for the loss in the Champions League Quarter Final two seasons ago.

The German side do have plenty of goals in the side and should be able to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Monaco and I will back Borussia Dortmund to win here. They have only won 1 of their last 8 away Champions League games, and Borussia Dortmund have only scored 1 goal in 2 away Group games, but Monaco concede goals for fun and I think the visitors can be backed to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow Pick: The first four months of the 2018/19 season have been erratic for Real Madrid to say the least, but they have won four games in a row heading into Match Day 6. Qualification for the Last 16 of the Champions League has already been earned, and Real Madrid have already won the Group, but they will want to keep the momentum going before trying to win more silverware in the calendar year next week in the World Club Championship.

Revenge may be on the minds of the players after Real Madrid were beaten by CSKA Moscow in the reverse fixture in this Group. A strong team has been predicted to start this game despite Real Madrid being back in League action on Saturday and I think they should have too much for their visitors.

CSKA Moscow have not been the worst travellers in European competition over the last couple of seasons, but they are in a difficult position of needing to better the Viktoria Plzen result if they are going to drop into the Europa League. The shocking home loss to the Czech side has put CSKA Moscow in this position and I think they may need goals in this one which also leaves them vulnerable at the back.

This is not the Real Madrid of a few months ago and they are capable of throwing in a really poor performance, but they have won 4 straight home games in all competitions and this remains a very tough place to play. With their visitors likely having to chase the game at some point, Real Madrid can produce a comfortable victory as they underline their position as Group Winners and put the Champions League aside for a couple of months.


Viktoria Plzen v Roma Pick: There will be some eyes on the other game in this Group and seeing how CSKA Moscow are getting on, but Viktoria Plzen control their own destiny and will believe a point is good enough to definitely move into the Europa League. Settling for a point too early is not really the way for them though and instead I would expect Viktoria Plzen to at least try and trouble a Roma team who are through to the Champions League Last 16 and have already been assured of finishing behind Real Madrid.

The visitors are not in the best form of late which should encourage Viktoria Plzen all the more, but they have also found the top two teams in this Group very tough opponents already.

Closing that quality gap won't be easy for Viktoria Plzen, but at least playing at home gives them a chance to try.

Roma are a very capable team in front of goal so they are dangerous, but recent games have seen them look a little vulnerable at the back too and I can see a situation where both teams score. The point might be enough for the home team and Roma won't have a real motivation to get forward and chase a late winner so the 1-1 result concerns me, although I feel an early goal could really open this up to be a good game of football and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.


Benfica v AEK Athens Pick: Last season Benfica made history by becoming the first top Seed in the Champions League Group Stage to fail to earn a point. This season they have improved a little bit, but they must be disappointed to already be out of contention for a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League before Match Day 6, although Benfica will have the benefit of knowing they are going to be playing European Football after Christmas in the 2018/19 season.

I don't think it is a stretch to say Benfica have fallen off the standards they had been setting in recent years. Even with that in mind I would have thought they would have been closer to Ajax in this Group, but the Dutch side look much improved as they confirmed a spot in the Last 16 by picking up 4 points in the double header with Benfica.

This is yet another dead rubber in the Champions League this week but I still think Benfica are going to be far too strong for an AEK Athens team who have struggled at this level. The Greek side have lost all five games they have played in the Champions League and they have conceded at least two goals in each of those games and I think it makes it very difficult to pick up points when you are defensively vulnerable like that.

AEK Athens have been comfortably beaten in both away games in this Group and I think Benfica can make that three from three. Benfica are not back in action until Sunday so they can give this a real go even though they have nothing to really play for, and I think the home team will be able to win by a couple of goals on the night.


Manchester City v Hoffenheim Pick: Last season Manchester City lost their first Premier League game of the season in January and they followed that up with 6 wins from 7 games in all competitions to maintain the momentum they had built up. Pep Guardiola will be looking for a similar reaction in the busy December calendar after the defeat at Stamford Bridge on Saturday although he will also be hoping for some reinforcements with the squad looking a little stretched at the moment.

Manchester City still need a point to secure top spot in the Group after the 2-2 draw in Lyon on Match Day 5, but I would still expect some rotations to be used by the manager during this time of the season. Big games are coming thick and fast for Manchester City, but they can bring in the likes of Danilo, Nicolas Otamendi, Vincent Kompany, Ilkay Gundogan and Gabriel Jesus for this one which looks to be coming too soon for Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero.

Whichever starting eleven is picked, Manchester City can't expect to get an easy ride from Hoffenheim even if their visitors have only earned 3 points from a possible 15 in the Group.

It's not for a lack of goals that they have not been able to secure more points than they have. Hoffenheim have scored 10 goals in their 5 Champions League games and only 1 of their 5 games have seen them score fewer than two goals. Hoffenheim have hit at least two goals in 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions including in both Champions League Group games, but defensively they can be erratic to say the least and that is the main reason Hoffenheim have not been able to produce more wins than they have.

They will go to the Etihad Stadium and have a go at Manchester City, but that does leave Hoffenheim vulnerable to the counter attack and I think this is a fixture that is likely going to produce chances and goals. The attacking threat posed by Hoffenheim makes it hard to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap even if I believe they have a positive reaction to the defeat on Saturday, but there is a market that has stood out.

With the need for at least one more point to win this Group, I expect Manchester City play a strong team and one capable of winning this game. I do think Hoffenheim will play a part and goals have flowed in the Bundesliga club's recent away games thanks to a strong attack and a very poor defence.

5 of the last 6 Manchester City home games have featured at least four goals shared out and that number of goals being scored has been a regular occurrence in this Group. With that in mind I think Manchester City can be backed to win this one and with four goals to be shared out on the evening.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon Pick: Group F of the Champions League has been about the most exciting in terms of close games and plenty of goals being scored. On Match Day 6 it is the turn of Shakhtar Donetsk and Lyon to face off with a place in the Champions League Last 16 on the line when they meet in the Ukraine.

The Lyon games in particular have been amazing to watch with a real attacking threat mixed in with defensive vulnerabilities. For a team to take 4 points from Manchester City and still need a result to make it out of this Group is a huge surprise, but shows Lyon you can't just expect to out-score teams at this level.

I don't think the policy will have changed though and Lyon will head to Shakhtar Donetsk with goals on their mind having scored at least two goals in all 5 Group games. However the last 4 have all ended in draws since the surprising 1-2 win at the Etihad Stadium and those draws for Lyon read 2-2, 3-3, 2-2, 2-2.

In the home game with Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon came from 0-2 down to earn the 2-2 draw and they know another draw here will be enough to make it through to the Last 16. However the Ukrainian Champions are very good at home and they will believe their own attacking capabilities can expose the defensive issues Lyon have had in the Champions League.

Like Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk have seen 4 of their 5 Group games feature at least four goals. The difference between the teams has been the two beatings Shakhtar Donetsk have absorbed against Manchester City and that is why they are trailing Lyon in this Group.

In the other 3 games in the Group, Shakhtar Donetsk have scored at least two goals and conceded at least two goals and I am not surprised the layers are expecting goals. It can be colder at this time of the year in the Ukraine, but these two teams are capable of warming things up in an entertaining game where both will likely be chasing goals at some point.

The defending has not matched the attacking capabilities shown and I think this will be another game in the Group featuring at least four goals.

MY PICKS: Schalke @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Inter Milan - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool-Napoli Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Viktoria Plzen-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benfica - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Lyon Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Valencia-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)