NFL Week 14 Picks 2023 (December 7-11)

Another NFL week is in the books and another of the leading contenders for the Super Bowl have suffered an injury to the starting Quarter Back.

It has been a really tough season for starters and Trevor Lawrence looks like he will be missing for at least a couple of games for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were upset as an almost double digit home favourite on Monday Night Football. At one stage they were considered a potential Number 1 Seed in the AFC, although only an outsider for that Seed, but now the Jaguars may be looking over their shoulders at the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South, while the Wild Card positions may also be beyond them if they have to go without Lawrence for much longer than anticipated.

The opponent on Monday Night Football, the Cincinnati Bengals, will know all about how quickly a season can turn sour when the starting Quarter Back goes down with an injury. Jake Browning did play well enough to offer encouragement, but it is still a long road back for the Bengals in the tough AFC.

The Bye Weeks are now almost all but over, which means the run towards the PlayOffs is now on.

Results in each passing week can have a big impact on the Seeding position with the Number 1 Seed in both Conference still highly coveted considering it offers the only Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season. Things have become murkier as to how those final Seedings will look after Week 13 results and there are still plenty of big regular season games to be played before it all shakes out.

Thankfully those positions will be decided on the field, rather than using a PlayOff Committee like College Football after all of the controversies about their final four selection.

With big games in the NFC East and West in Week 14 and some fascinating AFC games that could begin to determine the Wild Card picture, it looks another good week for the fans to enjoy. There are also two Monday Night Football games in Week 14, which kick off at the same time, as the NFL continues to work out new ways for fans to enjoy the game.

Personally it does not appeal much to me, although the Miami Dolphins are one of those games and that will be the focus of my attention.

Week 13 is now behind us and that means a new top five, which can be seen below. Unlike last week, results in Week 13 have impacted the positions of teams with five more weeks of the regular season to be played.

1) San Francisco 49ers (9-3): they may not have the most wins in the NFL, but the crushing win in Philadelphia has to be highly respected and the 49ers look the team to beat in the NFC after Week 13.

2) Philadelphia Eagles (10-2): you have to understand the factors around the Eagles loss to the 49ers and so I am not going to drop them further than this position. Fatigue would have played a part after two tough wins and the 49ers playing with a few extra days of rest, but Philadelphia face a similarly tough situation in Week 14 with another big game against rivals the Dallas Cowboys.

3) Baltimore Ravens (9-3): they are coming in off a Bye Week and the teams that I had placed in Number 4 and Number 5 positions last week both lost.

4) Detroit Lions (9-3): they remain an outside contender to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and that would be huge for the Lions. A solid win in New Orleans has to be respected, but the Defensive unit need to step up their level to really give the fans belief that they could beat the top two NFC teams.

5) Dallas Cowboys (9-3): a win over a team with a winning record pushes the Dallas Cowboys into Number 5 this week, although they were not at their very best against the Seattle Seahawks. Week 14 is a big opportunity for the Cowboys to show they are 'for real' when hosting the Philadelphia Eagles and with an opportunity to really get back into the mix for the NFC East Divisional crown, as well as the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

Both Kansas City and Jacksonville had to fall out of my top five after losing primetime games in Week 13 and they have work to do to really convince about winning a Super Bowl.

More belief will be with the Kansas City Chiefs considering their recent history, but they have not looked right this season and being carved up by Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers will have concerned one or two fans.

As a Miami Dolphins fan, perhaps I am used to seeing seasons end disappointingly and that is a reason they have not cracked the top five despite a big road win. However, the Dolphins are close and they will get an opportunity to prove themselves soon with some big regular season games to be played between now and Week 18. Win those and it will be easy to put them in the top five, but lose, and people will consider Miami a 'flat track bully' with the strength of schedule meaning they are perhaps not battle tested for PlayOff Football.

Picks for Week 14 will be placed in this thread, but I want no part of Thursday Night Football which looks a miserable game.

Both the Patriots and Steelers could be going in with backup Quarter Backs and I genuinely believe that 10 points wins the game.

It may make the points with the road underdog look appealing, but New England have been horrible Offensively and a 10-3 Steelers win would not surprise me at all. Then again, it is impossible to trust the Steelers with Mitchell Trubisky at Quarter Back and there will be better options to back later in Week 14.

Those Picks will be added over the next couple of days as I look to bounce back from the disappointing Week 13 selections.

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: A considerable upset was produced on Monday Night Football in Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season and that has once again pushed the Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) back towards the Wild Card spots in the AFC. Expectations had dipped after the Bengals lost three games in a row and had seen Joe Burrow go down with a season ending injury, but Jake Browning helped the team overcome the odds in winning in Jacksonville and has some momentum to take into Week 14.

The Bengals are hosting the Indianapolis Colts (7-5) who have won four games in a row and would be a Wild Card team in the Conference if the season was to end today. Indianapolis fans are perhaps even thinking about winning the AFC South having moved to just a single game behind the Jaguars after the latter were beaten by the Cincinnati Bengals, although two losses to Jacksonville means Indianapolis are effectively two games behind.

That will not matter much for a team who are ahead of the curve as far as their development goes.

After winning just four games in 2022 and starting the season with a rookie Quarter Back, the Indianapolis Colts were expected to be an also-ran while giving Anthony Richardson plenty of experience. Unfortunately Richardson was knocked out for the season early in the year and Gardner Minshew has shown that he is one of the better backups in the NFL.

In reality Minshew has perhaps been more of a hindrance than a help for an Indianapolis team that will want to power themselves through the running game and hope the Quarter Back avoids back-breaking mistakes. While he has still made some, in the main Gardner Minshew has just gotten out of his own way for long enough to help the Colts win four games in row.

Jonathan Taylor is expected to be absent again, but Zack Moss has made the most of his opportunities at Running Back and can help keep the Colts in front of the chains. Leaving Gardner Minshew in manageable down and distance is important for Indianapolis who will know that there are holes in the Cincinnati Secondary that can be exploited as they look for a big win over a potential Wild Card rival.

The expectation is that the Quarter Back will be able to make enough plays through the air to keep the chains moving and the Colts could have a strong day.

Perhaps more important to the outcome of the game is the return of Grover Stewart to the Indianapolis Defensive Line- they have struggled to stop the run without him, but Stewart was a big part of the early successes Indianapolis had at the line of scrimmage and they will be looking to bottle up Joe Mixon after his big outing in a primetime spot on Monday.

The Bengals Offensive Line have been playing well of late so have to be respected, but having Stewart back should help the Colts as they look to force Jake Browning to beat them through the air.

Jake Browning will not be lacking confidence after his showing to help the Bengals beat the Jaguars, but this Colts Secondary is playing better than the Jacksonville one. He will also be under some real pressure from the Indianapolis pass rush, which has been really effective during their winning run and makes up for some of the big rushing holes that have been given up in recent games.

That pressure up front has helped Indianapolis no end and they can give Jake Browning more troubles than Jacksonville did. You can still expect Ja'Marr Chase to pick up his yards, but the Colts may make a few more stops and that can help them win this one on the road.

The expectation is that the Colts Defensive unit can show up in Week 14 and they can make enough plays to just bring Jake Browning back down to earth and it looks wise to take the points with the road underdog who have every reason to belive they win outright.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: There is an extremely outside chance that the Chicago Bears (4-8) can use their Week 12 upset of the Minnesota Vikings to push a late run towards the Wild Card places. One of those spots will be taken by the team that finishes second in the NFC East, but the other two places are available for any team that can produce a late run.

The Bears would likely need to win out, but that might get them close considering they have to play the likes of the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers before the end of the regular season.

They can also play with some freedom knowing the Carolina Panthers are doing all they can to ensure the Chicago Bears finish with the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft again. That will put some pressure on Justin Fields to show he can be the player that can become the franchise Quarter Back for the Chicago Bears, while Head Coach Matt Eberflus may need a strong end to the season to ensure he has another year in charge.

All of this will be in the thinking of the Bears as they come out of their Bye Week and prepare to face the Detroit Lions (9-3) for the second time in four weeks. The Bears should have earned the road upset at the Lions in Week 11, but fell to a late loss and that will give the home team plenty of motivation.

Detroit Head Coach Dan Campbell has played down the revenge factor, but the additional chance to play spoiler for a NFC North rival will charge up the Chicago crowd.

After winning on the road in Week 13, another road game is a tough scheduling spot for a Lions team that is much more effective indoors than they are outdoors. The win in New Orleans was within their dome, but this is going to be much tougher for Detroit with the tough December Chicago conditions a real factor.

The fact is that they are also playing an improving Chicago Defense who have had young players building experience in 2023. The Lions will look for David Montgomery to establish the run against his former team alongside Jahmyr Gibbs and that will be important to keep Detroit in front of the chains and make life a little more comfortable for Jared Goff.

In recent games Goff has been guilty of making some mistakes, while he is going to be facing a Chicago pass rush that has picked up since trading for Montez Sweat. The pressure up front has helped the Bears Secondary and Interceptions could be key for the home team looking to earn the upset.

Creating short fields will help the Chicago Quarter Back who returned from an injury to produce a strong game in the loss to the Lions in Week 11. Justin Fields had a decent throwing day, but was a real menace on the ground and the dual-threat Quarter Back is likely to have a similar outing in this one.

His ability to scramble inside the pocket should help Justin Fields find just enough time to throw down the field. The passing numbers are not particularly eye-catching, but Justin Fields has avoided making the mistakes through the air that has allowed Chicago to move the ball, although the Quarter Back will have to handle the ball better when scrambling after some fumbles that almost cost the Bears against the Minnesota Vikings.

Since being Drafted by the Bears, Justin Fields has played well against the Detroit Lions and similar is expected here. Chicago have not been very good coming out of a Bye Week in recent seasons, but they have matched up well with the Lions and they can keep this one close.

It is recommended to take more than a Field Goal worth of points where you can in a game that could potentially land on the key number 3 for either of these teams. However, there is every chance that is in favour of Chicago with this improved team having a Bye Week to really put a good game plan together and the Bears can be backed with the points as a home underdog.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Before the Monday Night Football game in Week 13, some were wondering if the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) may have enough to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.

Things can change very quickly in the NFL.

Trevor Lawrence has picked up an injury that the Jaguars are hoping will 'only' keep him out of a couple of games and there are other banged up players on the Offensive side of the ball with Travis Etienne playing through an injury and Christian Kirk also sidelined. After allowing Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals do what they like on Monday Night Football, the Jacksonville Jaguars may now be worrying about falling into the Wild Card battle, never mind chasing the Number 1 Seed.

It almost certainly going to be CJ Beathard at Quarter Back for the Jaguars and he has a difficult task facing the Cleveland Browns (7-5) who continue to send out a very strong Defensive unit onto the field.

Back to back losses through Quarter Back injuries of their own have slowed down some of the momentum, but the Browns still hold the Number 5 Seed in the AFC. Deshaun Watson is not coming back this season, but veteran Joe Flacco played well enough in Week 13 to offer encouragement, while Dorian Thompson-Robinson could also be back this week having flashed some positive signs in replacement of Watson.

Both may be used in Week 14, although the Browns will be looking for them to manage the game.

Instead the focus will be on Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt who are likely going to be getting plenty of touches in what is likely to be wet conditions on Sunday afternoon. Both Running Backs are playing well enough to pick up from where Joe Mixon left off and they will be able to pound the rock between the tackles with success, while also showing off an ability to break some big gains as pass-catching Backs.

It should mean the Quarter Back, whoever it is, has a bit more time to make their throws and the Browns will be hoping that Amari Cooper is able to suit up. He is the concussion protocol so has to be considered doubtful, but the Browns will believe they can get enough from the Running Backs to at least move the chains and score the points that the Defensive unit can defend.

The Defensive of the ball is where Cleveland look to have a big edge and Jacksonville being without their starting Quarter Back may have a real problem moving the ball with any consistency.

Recent games have seen teams being able to establish the run against the Browns Defensive Line, although it is much more difficult to believe Jacksonville can do the same. With CJ Beathard behind Center, the Cleveland plan has to be shutting down Travis Etienne and seeing if the backup can find spaces against a tough Secondary to keep the First Downs coming.

Trevor Lawrence with Evan Engram, Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk could have given the Cleveland Secondary something to think about.

Two of those four are not expected to suit up though and that should help the Browns who can earn a big home win that puts them right back on track as far as the Wild Card spots go.

While it has been an up and down season for Cleveland, the Browns are 3-0 against the spread when set as the home favourite. With a bit of an advantage of an extra day to prepare, Cleveland can run the ball right at the Jaguars and force a couple of mistakes from a backup Quarter Back to ensure they win this game and cover the line set.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The scheduling spot may not be the best for the San Francisco 49ers (9-3) as they come off a really big, statement making win in Week 13. The fact they are facing a Divisional rival that they blew out on the road in Week 12 might make the spot that much worse with so many talking up the 49ers, but the opportunity to earn the top Seed in the NFC will not be lost on the home team.

They face the Seattle Seahawks (6-6) again having demolished them on Thanksgiving Day on the road, while the road team will have had a mini-Bye having last played on Thursday Night Football. They put in a big effort, but ultimately came up short against the Dallas Cowboys, and even optimistic Head Coach Pete Carroll is not entirely sure if the Seahawks will be able to earn a Wild Card place.

Carroll has made it clear that he believes his team are good enough, but injuries are hurting the Seahawks as they continue to chug through an incredibly difficult run of games. Losing at the Los Angeles Rams will have been a disappointment, but Seattle have since been beaten by the 49ers and Dallas Cowboys and now face this rematch before hosting the Philadelphia Eagles.

The last three games look more winnable, but 9-8 may not be good enough for a Wild Card berth and so this is a big game for the Seahawks to try and reverse recent momentum.

Scoring enough points to do that will be incredibly challenging, despite the big performance at the Dallas Cowboys. Geno Smith and DK Metcalf both looked much healthier and have a few more days to prepare for this game than they would usually, but now they are facing a team that limited the Seahawks to just 220 Offensive yards two weeks ago.

Establishing the run will be extremely challenging for the Seahawks who could be without both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet for this Week 14 game. Even with those two lining up, they would be facing a 49ers Defensive Line that effectively clamped down on the Eagles up front and so the pressure will be on Geno Smith at Quarter Back.

He was protected well enough in the loss to the Dallas Cowboys, but Smith was hit hard by the 49ers pass rush on Thanksgiving Day and has to expect the pressure to be all around him again. The 49ers have really rattled opposition Quarter Backs in recent games and it will mean Smith has to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he would like, while trying to expose a San Francisco Secondary that has been playing well enough.

Once again it feels like it will be a tough Offensive day for Seattle, while almost certainly going to be another day in the office for Brock Purdy and the 49ers.

Better health has led to some big Offensive performances for the 49ers and they are certainly looking like they are going to be in peak form heading into the PlayOffs. Brock Purdy has pushed himself into the MVP conversation, while Christian McCaffrey continues to churn out big yards running the ball or catching out of the backfield.

Christian McCaffrey helped the 49ers pick up 169 yards on the ground in the win over Seattle in Week 12 and he is expected to be a key part of establishing the run again. That will put the 49ers in a positive position whenever they have the ball and Brock Purdy should be able to make a few plays in the passing game to keep things moving.

With the run likely to be established and with a healthier Offensive Line, San Francisco should be able to hurt the Seahawks Secondary down the field. Even short passes to the likes of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk never feel too far away from breaking open for big gains and George Kittle should also have a strong outing.

As mentioned, the spot is far from ideal after a hugely impressive statement making win in Week 13 and now facing a rested Divisional rival looking for revenge.

However, in saying that, the 49ers have won four in a row in the series and three of those wins have been by at least 18 point margins.

Since their Bye Week, the 49ers have won four in a row overall and all of those wins have been by at least 13 points, while San Francisco are 14-1 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season.

Covering this kind of line is never easy and there is always the potential for a backdoor cover, but San Francisco look focused and hungry Defensively and they can make enough plays to crush this NFC West rival again.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There has been a report out this week that has been very critical of Sean McDermott, although most are considering it a 'hit job' seeing as the criticisms are about events that took place several years ago.

The Buffalo Bills (6-6) Head Coach has apologised again, but the team are focusing on coming out of their Bye Week and looking to turn things around in what has been an underachieving season. The late Bye Week should help the players clear away some of the knocks and bruises, while there is clearly still time to right their ship even if the AFC East Divisional crown looks beyond them.

With just five games left, the Bills know they are in dangerous territory when it comes to potentially missing the PlayOffs. Recent seasons have seen the team narrowly miss out on a Super Bowl appearance, but the window feels like it may be closing on the current roster and big changes may be made if they are unable to earn a spot in the post-season and then have a deep run.

The remaining five games are far from easy and the Bills open with this tough game at Arrowhead against the slumping Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) who have lost three of their last five games. That has seen them lose some ground in the race to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, but a win here puts them back on track and Kansas City have not lost two in a row all season.

Kansas City have bounced back from all three losses to produce strong wins and covers of the spread line set so they have to be hugely respected. Despite perhaps not playing up the level we have come to expect, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back and the feeling is that he will get this team out of a slump and begin to build some momentum to take into the post-season.

Following this game, the Chiefs have a manageable looking schedule and a win would likely mean they are favourites to still finish with the best record in the AFC.

However, winning will be a challenge for Kansas City who have lost their last three home regular season games against the Buffalo Bills. There is no doubt that the latter have been built to knock off the Chiefs who have been considered the best team in the AFC in recent years and the Buffalo Bills have every chance of doing that again, despite their poor run of form into the Bye Week.

Injuries to key Defensive players have not helped, but Kansas City are likely going to be without Isaiah Pacheco who has established himself as arguably the third best skill player on the Offensive side of the ball behind Mahomes and Travis Kelce. He has been running the ball really well in recent games, but the Chiefs may struggle for a really strong impact on the ground if Pacheco is sitting out.

You have to believe that Patrick Mahomes will still have success throwing the ball, although his Receivers have been guilty of some big drops. The Quarter Back is likely going to be facing up to some pass rush pressure with Von Miller in the Buffalo line up despite an arrest for a domestic issue during the Bye Week, and that may help stall enough drives to give the Bills a chance of the 'upset'.

It will be interesting to see what kind of plan Buffalo have put together on the Offensive side of the ball having recently fired Ken Dorsey as Offensive Co-Ordinator. The Bills have perhaps not run the ball as they would have liked, but they have to have noticed the success the Packers had doing that against Kansas City in Week 13 and James Cook and Josh Allen should be able to pick up some big yards on the ground.

This will be important for Josh Allen to try and help him reduce some of the mistakes he has made when throwing the ball- over the course of the season, Allen has 13 Interceptions already, which is only one shy of his 2022 total, while the Quarter Back has not been as effective getting the ball into the End Zone through the air.

Being in third and manageable should make it easier to attack a Kansas City Secondary that struggled against Jordan Love at times last week. The Offensive Line has been able to keep the pocket clean for Josh Allen in recent games and the Bills can come out and make the plays they need on the Offensive side of the ball to win this one on the road.

Beating the Kansas City Chiefs is never a foregone conclusion and this is a team that is 13-8 against the spread following a loss since Patrick Mahomes became the official starting Quarter Back. That includes covering in all three of those situations this season, but the expectation is that Sean McDermott will have a strong plan in mind and the Buffalo Head Coach is 7-0 outright after a Bye Week.

A motivated and desperate Buffalo team have won here on the road in October 2021 and October 2022 and the feeling is that the Bills will have enough on both sides of the ball to just take advantage of a banged up and out of sync Kansas City team.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The NFC East battle is likely to go down to the wire, but you have to favour the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) to become the first team in twenty years to win back to back Divisional titles. The Dallas Cowboys (9-3) will have something to say about that and a win for the Cowboys will put them in a strong position, but the remaining schedule looks to favour Philadelphia even if they end up on the wrong side of the result.

That is not to say that this game matters more to the Cowboys.

While a defeat will effectively mean entering the Wild Card, the Philadelphia Eagles may feel a loss will make them second favourites to earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. Despite the heavy home loss to the 49ers, you cannot underestimate the benefit of earning a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs by taking the Number 1 Seed as well as obviously having home advantage through the post-season for as long as that team is involved.

Since the new format of the PlayOffs, the Number 1 Seed in both Conferences has been a huge advantage and that means there is plenty on the line for the Eagles having lost to the 49ers and only holding a game advantage over San Francisco.

With that in mind, it looks a bad time to be banged up.

Jalen Hurts is going to go through the pain, but the Quarter Back did have to head back to the locker room in Week 13 as the 49ers really took it to the Eagles. This is another tough Defensive unit that Philadelphia will have to face and Philadelphia may struggle to run the ball as they did in the defeat to San Francisco.

If the Quarter Back is not feeling up to full health, the pressure is only going to make it tougher for Jalen Hurts as he throws from third and long. The Cowboys are likely going to be spying on Hurts if he takes off to run, while they do get plenty of pressure up front to try and rattle him.

Of course you have to respect the Philadelphia Offensive Line which did give Jalen Hurts time last week.

He has the Receivers to make some plays down the field, including a returning Dallas Goedert and so Jalen Hurts will likely be able to move the ball, although becoming one-dimensional would make it tough to find a lot of consistency on the Offensive side of the ball.

The Eagles should have success, but the same can be said for the Dallas Cowboys.

Mike McCarthy is expected to be on the sidelines calling his own plays and the Cowboys have been very good at home as they look to show they can beat one of the better teams in the NFL. They will be confident of picking up where San Francisco left off and that means establishing the run and keeping Dak Prescott in a positive position on the field.

Tony Pollard is not Christian McCaffrey, but he can be effective as both a runner and pass catching Back and he can at least keep the Cowboys in a strong position. The Offensive Line have opened up some solid running lanes, while they have also been very good in pass protection and that should mean Prescott has time to find his Receivers down the field with Brandon Cooks and CeeDee Lamb both capable of making the big catches for him.

Having that second option next to Lamb is key for Dallas and the feeling is that the Cowboys will have another strong Offensive output after producing over 400 yards in the first meeting between these NFC East rivals.

The Cowboys will have been very disappointed by that 5 point loss in Philadelphia, but they do look capable of earning revenge in their own Stadium where they have been dominant this season.

Dallas had over 100 yards more than the Eagles in the first meeting, while they have had more rest to prepare for this Week 14 game.

Philadelphia looked fatigued at the end of the loss to San Francisco having played Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo and the 49ers in a five week stretch and that could be a factor at the end of this one too. Add in the strength the Cowboys have shown at home and the feeling is that Dallas will earn revenge in this one and put the Eagles Number 1 Seed in jeopardy.

Some will expect the Eagles to bounce back after a rare loss, but they are 1-3 against the spread in the week after a defeat since the beginning of the 2022 season.

The Cowboys did not cover in Week 13, but they are 10-3 against the spread as the home favourite over the last season and a half and it is nice to be able to go against the public and back the home team in this Sunday Night Football clash.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: The first season without Aaron Rodgers leading from Quarter Back looked to be drifting aimlessly, but Jordan Love looks to have finally figured something out. The inexperience was clear to see earlier in the season, but Love has helped the Green Bay Packers (6-6) win four of five games and they would have a Wild Card place in the NFC if the season ended today.

A lot of credit has to be given to the young players, but the Coaching Staff deserve praise for sticking with Jordan Love and giving him a good plan.

The expectation is that Love and the Packers Offensive unit can have another big showing after impressing in the win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. That is a statement win and the Packers have to be careful about not looking past the New York Giants (4-8) who have won two in a row and who are coming out of a Bye Week with an outside chance of pushing for a return to the post-season.

Brian Daboll guided his team through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs last season and he will know his Giants team likely needs to win out if they are going to make the PlayOffs. There will be no mistaking how tough that will be considering the five games left, but all the Giants can do is come out in Week 14 and hope they can move another game closer to 0.500 for the year.

Tommy DeVito will continue to play at Quarter Back in place of the injured Daniel Jones, but this is a position that will likely be upgraded in the off-season. A new found fame will hopefully not go to DeVito's head after back to back wins, but this is another tough Defensive unit that will be in front of him and one that just made life very difficult for Patrick Mahomes.

The Giants may need to follow the Chiefs plan and that will be to run the ball through Saquon Barkley against the Packers Defensive Line which has struggled to clamp down up front. Getting Barkley going and keeping Tommy DeVito in front of the chains will give New York a chance, but this will only be effective as long as the game is close.

Any time the Giants are in obvious passing situations, the struggling Offensive Line will have a hard time keeping the Packers from flooding into the backfield and hitting the Quarter Back over and over again. Sacks and hurried throws stall Offensive drives and that will be the plan for the Packers as they look to secure another important victory.

A team coming out of a Bye Week will likely have worked on a solid game plan, but the New York Giants may not have the personnel to stop the Green Bay Packers when Jordan Love is on the field.

He may be going without Christian Watson, who continues to prove himself to be a valuable Receiving target when he is able to get on the field. Injuries have held Watson back in his relatively short NFL career and he will be a miss, while Aaron Jones looks like he may have to miss another week too.

However, AJ Dillon ran through the pain very effectively in the win over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Packers are likely going to be able to produce some big yards on the ground again.

That should aid Jordan Love, who is capable of scrambling for First Downs too, and he still has skill players that he can target in the passing game. In recent games, Love is averaging over 270 passing yards per game and has been well protected by his Offensive Line and both of these situations could show up again on Monday Night Football.

It should mean the Packers are able to pick up from where they left off in Week 13 and the scoring power can see them pull away as a big road favourite.

Green Bay have won their last two games by at least 7 point margins, but this is a different spot for them as they were big underdogs against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Expectations are much more pressurised as the favourite, especially by this margin on the road, but the Packers are playing well enough to win and cover against a struggling New York Giants Offensive unit.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The NFL are trying something different in Week 14 of the 2023 season and that is not only by having two Monday Night Football games, but to have both played at the same time. The thinking behind that is harder to understand, but that is what the fans have to deal with as they get to choose between the Packers-Giants or this game.

The other is expected to be more competitive as the Miami Dolphins (9-3) head into this game as a huge favourite over the Tennessee Titans (4-8). The home team are chasing the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, while the road team have lost four of their last five games and are on the brink of elimination as far as the post-season is concerned.

After pushing the Indianapolis Colts to Overtime last week and still coming up short, you do have to wonder about the motivations of the Titans. It is an incredibly long shot for them to make the PlayOffs, even if they win out, while there has to be a huge motivation to try and play spoiler for Divisional rivals Houston and Jacksonville who make up three of their remaining four games.

No team ever wants to throw a game away, but it is very hard to imagine getting a full effort from the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football and the oddsmakers in Vegas clearly feel the same.

As has been the case in recent years, the Tennessee Titans very much feel like an Offensive unit that will go as far as Derrick Henry will take them. With a rookie Quarter Back, teams have really focused on closing down the Running Back and may have been effective at doing that, even if Derrick Henry will still be capable of a big gain at any time.

The Titans will be facing an improving Miami Defensive Line when it comes to playing the run and so they may need more out of Will Levis at Quarter Back. That may be asking too much against this healthier Miami Secondary which has been making plenty of big plays through the air, while the Dolphins can generate a pass rush to rattle Levis behind Center.

Jaelan Phillips will be a big loss in the bigger games to come, but Miami can still find a way into the backfield in this one and they may be able to shut down the Titans Offensively.

It will be up to the Titans Defense to try and keep this close and they may have some success against the high-powered Miami Offensive unit that piled up over 400 yards in their 45-15 win over the Washington Commanders in Week 13.

The Titans Defensive Line has remained pretty stout when playing the run, so it may not be easy for Mike McDaniels and his Miami team to get going on the ground. This has been an important part of the Miami successes in 2023, although the Head Coach will use plenty of motion and bubble screens in lieu of a run game if that is necessary.

Tua Tagovailoa will likely be used to expose the Titans Secondary, which is where the weakness of this Defensive unit can be seen, and he should be able to make some big connections with Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Last week Jayden Waddle had 52 yards and Tyreek Hill had 157 yards with 2 Touchdowns and the feeling is that these two players will be key in blowing this game open.

The Quarter Back has been well protected by the Offensive Line so those routes should be able to develop down the field and the Dolphins can win this one big.

Earning the Number 1 Seed in the AFC should keep the motivation high for the home team and the Defensive unit can make one or two late plays to just ensure this very big line is covered by the home favourite.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 16 Picks (December 10-12)

I spent a few days up in Manchester with the main reason being the short space of time between the Arsenal and Crystal Palace matches at Old Trafford.

It was a great decision- weather aside- and I truly love the place.

The people are some of the best, although I am a little disappointed that some of the character of Manchester has been lost with a new skyline making it feel like you are not that far away from London. Even then, it was a wonderful time to get away for a few days and an opportunity to spend time with friends that is not always there on a match day thanks to the long travelling time it takes to reach the ground.

I am already looking forward to going back and there will be potential dates to do so before the end of this season.

It did mean I was not really concentrating on the Fantasy Football choices and I actually missed the Saturday deadline after a good Friday night out on the tiles. Ultimately the points suffered, but I was not too bothered about being able to hold a transfer, but more on that below my thoughts for the Weekend Premier League games that kick off on Friday through Sunday.

Brentford v Watford Pick: The opening Premier League game of this weekend comes from West London on Friday night and it involves two teams that came up from the Championship last May and who are looking to consolidate their place in the top flight.

If you asked random people on the street as to which of these teams is having the more successful season, the chances are the majority would say Brentford. However, Watford have picked up some vital points at key times and a win on Friday would mean they are only a point behind Brentford.

In recent weeks Brentford have struggled for victories in the Premier League, but they were unfortunate to not record another success when conceding late in the 2-2 draw at Elland Road last Sunday. The defensive vulnerabilities continue to hurt Brentford of late as they are without two of the key performers at the back and I do think Watford have shown enough in the final third over the last six weeks which should see them have joy when they get forward.

Watford created some very good chances in their last away game at Leicester City and they played well in their defeat to Chelsea. The loss to Manchester City showed some of the problems Watford are having in defensive areas too though and Brentford can cause problems even without Sergi Canos and Ivan Toney.

I think those absences hurt, but Brentford play good football and Thomas Frank will have had a week to prepare his team to make up for those that are missing. That should help Brentford, who beat Everton 1-0 in their last game here, but I also think Watford will be better for the time off to work under Claudio Ranieri on the training field.

Both teams hitting the back of the net would not be a big surprise, but I think this is a fixture that both Thomas Frank and Claudio Ranieri will be targeting as a potential three point opportunity. That should mean Brentford and Watford chasing the goals to win the game and I do think there will be at least three shared out on what should be a drier evening in West London.

Manchester City v Wolves Pick: One mistake can see a team drop from the top of the Premier League table very quickly and Manchester City are the latest to take over as leaders of the Division.

It could be a worry for their main title rivals considering the experience Manchester City have in winning the Premier League in recent seasons. They have a squad that is coping with injuries and Manchester City have been producing solid performances at the Etihad Stadium.

A defeat at Leipzig will have bothered Pep Guardiola, but his Manchester City team can bounce back on Saturday as they look to set the pace for the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea who play later on.

Beating Wolves will see Manchester City pull clear of their main title rivals before Liverpool and Chelsea have winnable home games, but the manager will be making sure his team are only focusing on themselves. Phil Foden missing out will hurt, but Manchester City have some key players that look to be rounding into good form and the return of Kevin De Bruyne cannot be underestimated.

This week they are facing a Wolves team that continue to struggle for goals and I do think Manchester City will be able to largely contain their visitors. You know Wolves are going to want to counter and use the pace they have in the final third, but they have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games including in back to back away games at Crystal Palace and Norwich City.

The worry for Bruno Lage is that his team have struggled to create quality chances in their last few games and Wolves may have issues finding their cutting edge against Manchester City. The home team are not exactly piling up the clean sheets themselves, but opponents have been clinical against them and are largely being kept at arm's length by the League leaders.

Last season Manchester City thumped Wolves home and away, but the resilience Wolves showed in their narrow defeat to Liverpool last Saturday will be encouraging. Better finishing would have made life easier for Liverpool on that day, but Wolves created little against them and I think Manchester City will be able to secure the three points in this fixture.

A clean sheet would not be a big surprise and I think the home team will likely win a game that features fewer than four goals on the day.

Arsenal v Southampton Pick: There will be some positives for Ralph Hasenhuttl after watching recent Southampton performances, but he will be feeling frustrated that they have not been able to hold onto leads against Leicester City and Brighton in their last couple of home games.

Against the former, Southampton led twice, while last Saturday they conceded deep into injury time in the 1-1 draw with Brighton.

The attacking chances being created are impressive, but Southampton have not been able to put the finishing touches to their football. Danny Ings would have made a real difference for them, but Adam Armstrong and Che Adams have been inconsistent in the final third.

A goalkeeping crisis will not help the mood of the away team and especially not when you have a look at the underlying defensive numbers. Earlier this season Southampton were producing some clean sheets, but more recently they have allowed teams to create really good chances against them and I think that is going to be a problem for them when they visit the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal will have had their confidence dented by back to back defeats at Manchester United and Everton and it is particularly disappointing that they were leading in both of those games. The defensive numbers have not been that impressive all season, but Arsenal were getting away with it at times and it all came to a head in those away games.

However, they have been better at home and Arsenal will be looking for a fifth straight win here. The absence of Emile Smith Rowe will hurt, but Arsenal have been creating chances and I think they will be on the front foot at home having sat in on leads in their last two fixtures.

Mikel Arteta doesn't really want his team to do that and I think they are facing an opponent that can be exploited in defensive areas. Southampton may play their part in this one and they have drawn on their last couple of visits to this Stadium, but Arsenal have been a little more clinical at home.

Arsenal have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League and I think they can win a game that features at least two goals.

Chelsea v Leeds United Pick: Recent results have been troubling for Thomas Tuchel and he will be looking to get his Chelsea team going back to basics. For much of this season Chelsea have been a very tough team to break down, but individual mistakes have been punished over the last few weeks and the six goals conceded to West Ham United and Zenit St Petersburg would have highly irritated the manager.

At least this weekend Chelsea get to return to Stamford Bridge, even though the last couple of Premier League games have both ended 1-1 here. In both Thomas Tuchel was frustrated with the inability of his team to take the chances they had been creating, but Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku are back and amongst the goals and they can give Chelsea a cutting edge.

For all the negatives about the goals being conceded, Chelsea have scored 7 goals in their last 3 games in all competitions. They will certainly believe getting on the front foot may offer the best defence for a team missing key players in the middle of the park, and at least this week Chelsea are facing an opponent who may be having more difficulties on the injury front.

Leeds United secured a late point in their home draw with Brentford last Sunday, but they may have lost Patrick Bamford in the process of the returning striker scoring an equaliser. Key players in defensive and midfield spots are also set to miss out for Leeds United and I think that is important in deciding which may this game goes.

Over the last fourteen months, Leeds United have struggled when facing the top teams in the Premier League and they have been well beaten by both Manchester United and Liverpool this season. Back to back away games at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad Stadium is a real challenge for Leeds United and I do think the goals being scored by Chelsea will be too much for the visitors to cope with.

At least with Raphinha, Leeds United can offer a threat, but Chelsea should be too strong for a team that has been inconsistent all season. Leeds United did earn a goalless draw at Brighton in their last away game, but Chelsea are not going to be as wasteful in front of goal as The Seagulls were that day and it should see the home team find a way to get back to winning ways.

If Chelsea can get off to a good start, they should be good enough to returning to winning form by securing a victory by two or more goals.

Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: The television companies have to be kicking themselves for not selecting this fixture for live coverage after Steven Gerrard was confirmed as manager of Aston Villa.

It will be his first return to Anfield as an opponent and the form under Gerrard will give Aston Villa some encouragement as they look to upset the odds. They have won 3 of their 4 Premier League games under their new manager and that includes a 1-2 win at Crystal Palace in their sole away fixture played.

However, the defeat came against Manchester City and Liverpool are playing as well as any team in Europe, never mind England.

Liverpool have been scoring goals for fun and they have looked pretty secure defensively which has helped them surge up the League table. They will want to keep the pressure on their title rivals with back to back fixtures at Anfield to come this week and Liverpool have won 4 in a row here in all competitions, while keeping clean sheets in each of those.

Steven Gerrard is going to know all about the inner workings of Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp so you do have to imagine he will have prepared Aston Villa effectively. Losing some of the midfielders and attackers that could have been really dangerous on the counter attack hurts the visitors though and I think Gerrard will be looking to contain the home team and hope to frustrate them as Wolves did.

Unfortunately for Aston Villa, Liverpool are creating a lot of chances at the moment and have three attackers in very good form that are likely to exploit any spaces they find. Aston Villa have been looking pretty organised under Gerrard, but they will find it tough to contain Liverpool and another home win is likely.

Aston Villa played well last Sunday, but previously they had not been creating a lot of chances and I think Liverpool can do enough to win this one with a clean sheet for a fifth time in succession at Anfield.

Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: This is not the time of the season when a new manager can spend a lot of time working with his players on the training ground with fixtures set to be played every few days.

However, Ralf Rangnick is putting in the extra hours to make sure his Manchester United team are well aware of what is expected of them. After the 1-1 draw with Young Boys, the manager made it clear he was not too happy with the goal conceded even in a dead rubber game and that intensity should benefit this squad as long as the players are all willing to listen.

It sounded like the squad players did not really impress as much as they could have and especially when you listened to Rangnick after the win over Crystal Palace. He seemed surprised the players were able to pick up his ideas as well as they did and I think a strong Manchester United team will make the long journey to Carrow Road with confidence.

A number of the first team players should be well rested as they look for a third Premier League win in succession and they could be facing the right opponent to do that.

Dean Smith has helped Norwich City pick up some impressive results since he came in as manager to replace Daniel Farke, but the 3-0 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur showed the amount of work to do to bridge the gap to the best teams in the Division. Norwich City created some chances that day, but they looked porous at the back and Manchester United should be able to create opportunities here.

Norwich City will cause some problems, but even having a full week to prepare for this game may not be enough to stay with Manchester United. Make no mistake about the importance of the upcoming game for Norwich City when they face Dean Smith's former team Aston Villa here on Tuesday and I think that could be a distraction for The Canaries.

The first goal is going to be important, but I think Ralf Rangnick will be looking to make sure Manchester United are operating from a solid base and that is key for the visitors. Manchester United have not always been the best away from home this season after a long unbeaten run on their travels in the Premier League, but they can score goals and I think the new manager bounce will help them beat a Norwich City team that are poor at the back.

Burnley v West Ham United Pick: A place in the Last 16 of the Europa League has been secured and that is a second pathway through to the Champions League for West Ham United, but over the coming weeks they can cement their credentials as genuine threat to finish in the top four of the Premier League.

David Moyes has done a terrific job at the London Stadium and his team have beaten both Liverpool and Chelsea at home this season. The only concern is that West Ham United failed to win any of 3 League games after beating Liverpool and they have to show they can back up the victory over Chelsea.

Playing away from home could be a challenge considering West Ham United have struggled to create chances in defeats at Wolves and Manchester City. The first team should be well rested having seen the younger members of the squad take part in the Europa League, but West Ham United still have to come in and try and impose themselves.

They could benefit from the opponent as Burnley are coming in off a defeat to relegation rivals Newcastle United. Sean Dyche is someone who has to be respected for his own performance as manager of Burnley, but this is another slow start to a campaign and the underlying numbers have to be really worrying for anyone who even pays a passing attention to them.

Last weekend it was Newcastle United who dominated the chances and that puts pressure on a Burnley team that are missing some important players. At least Burnley have found a way to goal at home in their last couple of Premier League games here and they should be able to have some success against a visiting team who are without a number of defenders, but ultimately I do think the quality of West Ham United will shine through.

West Ham United won at Turf Moor last season and came from behind to do so and I do think they can do a better job of backing up a big Premier League win by securing another one here.

Leicester City v Newcastle United Pick: Unlike the breakout at Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City's Covid issues are not going to prevent them playing this weekend at the time of writing.

They are due to host Spurs during the week, but that game is much more likely to be postponed and Brendan Rodgers will be focusing on trying to earn an important win on Sunday to move back into the top half of the Premier League table.

It has been an extremely inconsistent season for Leicester City who are underachieving and the fans are losing a little bit of faith in the manager. There have been murmurings of frustration at the King Power Stadium and back to back losses which has included being dumped out of the Europa League will have hurt the confidence of the players.

Leicester City have not been too bad getting forward, but they have been so porous at the back and that has to be encouragement for Newcastle United after winning for the first time this season in their last fixture. Eddie Howe is a manager that likes his team to get forward and cause problems for opponents and Newcastle United have enough quality in the final third to certainly be able to do that here.

Newcastle United have won 3 of their last 4 visits to the King Power Stadium, which will back up their confidence, and it may be a good time to face Leicester City who are travelling back from Naples.

However, I do think Newcastle United are still struggling defensively and Leicester City have shown they can score plenty of goals. The Foxes have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and Brendan Rodgers may feel his team will be very dangerous on the front foot.

Both teams should have chances to score goals, but Leicester City may be able to edge to the points. Newcastle United's win over Burnley is a solid result, but they have been struggling defensively at the back in away games and it should mean Leicester City can create the chances to win this fixture in which goals should be flowing.

Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: You have to believe the 2-1 win for Everton over Arsenal is going to spark the squad that is still getting used to working with Rafael Benitez. Some of the players are rumoured to not completely be on board with Benitez, while injuries have hurt Everton throughout the season.

However, all of that pales into insignificance after the players produced a big performance for Rafael Benitez in overcoming Arsenal. That should show the majority of the players do believe in the Spaniard and Everton will head to South London with a confident attitude as they look to win consecutive games.

Some will feel they are facing Crystal Palace at the right time with Patrick Vieira's men losing 3 Premier League games in a row and struggling for goals. That ignores some of the chances that Crystal Palace have been guilty of missing, while they continue to defend pretty efficiently under their new manager and I do think they will be turning results around pretty soon.

Home form has been decent for Crystal Palace, but they have not been able to turn a few of the draws into wins, while a poor recent home record against Everton has to be on the mind of the players.

Crystal Palace will feel they can hurt Everton who still give up chances though and I do think this is a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. They should be able to get forward and create opportunities for the likes of Wilfred Zaha and Christian Benteke, but Crystal Palace will have to be aware of the qualities that Everton do have in the final third when they are defending.

The problem for Everton is that Crystal Palace have not been giving too much away and I think that is key to the outcome of this fixture. Better finishing will be needed for Crystal Palace, but I think they can fashion the chances to edge past their visitors and just put a bit more distance between themselves and the bottom three.

MY PICKS: Brentford-Watford Over 2.5 Goals

Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

Arsenal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Liverpool Win to Nil

Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap

West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Leicester City to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Crystal Palace - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 16

So what happened in GameWeek 15?

I had already set my team, as I had suggested in my post before heading away to Manchester, but a heavy night out meant I was not able to make a good decision before the deadline for GW15 and I ended up rolling a transfer.

Ultimately I may have gotten a little lucky- my thinking was to bring in Ben Johnson from West Ham United with the upcoming fixtures, but he picked up an injury in the 3-2 win over Chelsea and is likely to miss out on much of the festive period.

And holding a transfer has not worked out too badly with the Tottenham Hotspur Covid issues that means they are likely to be out of action until GW18 when Liverpool are the visitors to North London (and even that fixture may be in doubt when you consider how long the isolation requests are for people suffering from the new variant).

With Sergio Reguilon and Harry Kane, the obvious decision is to shift both out and I am also contemplating taking a hit to make sure the bench is suitable to cover any unexpected absentees.

It is not ideal to have to do that, but I think it is better than ending up short of numbers in a period when matches are being played every few days.

Talking about Harry Kane, my risky move to pick him as Captain in back to back games worked out terribly- the theory wasn't bad, Tottenham Hotspur scored five goals after all, but Harry Kane didn't even earn an assist in the time and the punishment was complete with Mohamed Salah continuing to produce big numbers.

Harry Kane won't be irritating me for a few days at least, and the obvious Captain choice this week is Salah... Right?

However, I think Aston Villa are capable of making things a little awkward for Liverpool as they battle for manager Steven Gerrard and so I am going to go a different way again- I'll probably regret it by 3:30pm, but I am out on Saturday and so any punishment won't be felt until the games are in the books before Manchester United take the field.

So who am I going with? Check out my team later and you will see the angle played!

The top three clubs are all producing the best defensive numbers, even after Chelsea's difficult week, and so moving Reguilon is likely going to see those three clubs offering out the best options. However, I think Trent Alexander-Arnold has reached a price that is beyond what I can bring in, while Andrew Robertson has four Yellow Cards and could serve a suspension before the New Year.

Manchester City and Chelsea can't be trusted when it comes to the rotations, but the former have the fixtures to make serious ground and the latter have to be feeling they need to go back to basics after conceding six goals in their last two away games.

It is either a decision to move Nelson Semedo or I am going to look to bring in the Watford attacker I have mentioned being intrigued by a few weeks ago. The Watford fixture list eases from GW16 and even better is a quick look at the underlying numbers that they have been producing against the stronger opponents they have been facing.

Emmanuel Dennis and Josh King will both have their backers, although the latter potentially being on Penalties and the numbers since the win over Manchester United makes King the more appealing option as far as I am concerned.

NFL Week 14 Picks 2018 (December 6-10)

With teams on the brink of securing Play Off spots and others trying to fight off elimination, Week 14 is another huge week for teams around the NFL.

It should also be the start of the Fantasy Football Play Offs in most Leagues so this is going to be an important week for fans and players as we get into the final four weeks of the NFL regular season heading towards the January Play Offs.


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: The season is all but over for the New York Giants, but the team have not given up playing hard and Odell Beckham Jr said it is all about dragging others out of the post-season the rest of the way. Unfortunately for the Giants, OBJ won't be available for this game after being ruled out on Saturday although the Washington Redskins won't be sympathising with the Giants.

Injuries have helped unravel the Washington Redskins season and even though they are only a game out of the NFC East lead, it feels much bigger than that having lost three games in a row which includes defeats to the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.

The bigger key is the fact that Washington are down to their third choice Quarter Back as Mark Sanchez takes over from Alex Smith and Colt McCoy who have both suffered fractured legs to end their seasons. Smith's injury sounds quite serious, but McCoy should recover fully although anyone trying to tell me Sanchez is better than asking Colin Kaepernick to play and citing 'football reasons' needs to find a new sport to follow.

It was no surprise watching Monday Night Football and seeing the Redskins barely able to move the ball against the Eagles once Sanchez came into the game. He is not going to have that long to expand his knowledge of the playbook from where it was on Monday and Sanchez is going to have another tough afternoon simply because he is not really a NFL level Quarter Back.

Sanchez won't be helped by the injuries on the Offensive Line and it is going to be very difficult for him to step back and make throws with the Giants expected to get pressure on him. The game plan will likely be leaning on the running game and keeping the Redskins in third and manageable spots, but the Giants should know this if they have done their homework and that means I expect New York to really look to clamp down on Adrian Peterson and force Sanchez to have to make the throws to keep the chains moving.

Odell Beckham Jr's absence is a big one for the Giants, but Evan Engram is expected to play which gives Eli Manning an important weapon in the passing game. The Giants have won three of their last four games, which probably frustrates the fanbase who were hoping for a very high Draft Pick, but the players for the Giants are performing for future employment so won't tank things away.

The Washington Defensive Unit are still playing well so it won't be an easy day for the Giants, but they are going to find it tough to stay motivated if Sanchez struggles as he may well do. One aspect they don't do so well is stopping the run and that may spell trouble with Saquon Barkley showing why the Giants took him as high as they did in the First Round of the last Draft and I expect Barkley to be involved massively throughout this Divisional game.

I do think there will be times when the Washington pass rush rattles Manning and he has to be careful of throwing the ball in those situations, but Eli is still some way better than Mark Sanchez. With the likely better support at Running Back, I think Manning finds a way to move the ball and keep the points coming and the Giants can cover this spread as the road favourite.

The Redskins have a poor record playing after Monday Night Football as they have gone 2-7 against the spread in the last nine in that spot, and I think the injuries have seen the season fall apart for them.


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Nine straight wins has seen the Houston Texans put a 0-3 record firmly behind them as they have taken complete control of the AFC South Division. At the moment they are 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans and 3 games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and another win on Sunday would put the Texans on the brink of making the Play Offs.

There may be bigger ambitions perhaps at play for the Texans than simply playing Play Off Football in January and that may be sneaking a Bye through to the Divisional Round. They have the same record as the New England Patriots and are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs so keeping the winning run going is very important for the Texans.

In Week 13 Indianapolis Colts laid an egg as they failed to score in a road loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars which leaves their Play Off ambitions teetering over the cliff. Andrew Luck had been in great form prior to that game, but I don't want one game to cloud over the fact that the Colts have been playing very well to get back into the Play Off picture.

These two teams played a really close one in Indianapolis which was won by the Texans in Overtime earlier this season and everything is pointing to another close one in Week 14. That makes the points with the road underdog look appealing, but Indianapolis will need Luck to be at his best for that to happen.

You have to respect the Houston Texans Defensive unit which has some quality players in it, but there are also some holes in the Secondary which I would expect Luck to exploit. If TY Hilton can't go it would be a blow to the Colts, but Luck has been well protected by his Offensive Line and I think they can give the Quarter Back just enough time to make his plays down the field much like he did in the first game between these teams.

Marlon Mack didn't have a good outing at the Jaguars last week, but I think he could have some success here as Houston look to stop the pass. Ripping off a few big runs should keep the Texans honest and allow Luck to get back to the strong passing days he had been producing prior to Week 13.

I think Deshaun Watson is more than capable of staying with Luck in a shoot out, but he is perhaps going to be under more pressure than you would expect. The Colts have been able to get a fierce pass rush going and the Houston Offensive Line is not the best, although Watson is a smart Quarter Back to identify pressure and also the athlete who can escape the pocket and make plays with his legs too.

Lamar Miller has been running the ball well for the Texans, but the Indianapolis Colts have played the run well and the Defensive unit have really stepped up from where they were a year ago. There will be drives that the talent of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will extend, even from third and long spots, but I can't see the Texans blowing out the Colts who will be looking to prove they are much better than the effort showed in Week 13.

The Colts are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five games in Houston and they have a strong record against the spread against this Divisional rival in recent years. Houston are a hard team to oppose considering how well they have cashed in at the window in recent weeks, but I will take the points with the underdog here.


New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The first thing you have to note is how poor a record the New England Patriots have in Miami against the Dolphins in recent years despite dominating the AFC East and much of the rest of the Conference. It's not like they have played in Miami early in the season when the focus is not quite as sharp as it will be in Week 14, but a number of the losses have come in December or January and the Patriots can't really afford to slip up in order to gain the best Play Off position.

Once again they have dominated the AFC East and a win over the Miami Dolphins will secure a Play Off spot. However the Patriots are more interested in trying to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and they are currently have a record tied with the Houston Texans and a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs, although the Patriots hold the tie-breaker over the Chiefs having beaten them earlier in the season.

Winning out may give New England every chance of securing the Number 1 Seed so they will head to South Florida with a big goal on their mind. Tom Brady has perhaps shown some signs of slowing down which makes it harder to really believe in the Patriots going on and winning the Super Bowl, but he should have the right support to beat the Dolphins even in a Stadium where Brady has had his troubles.

While Brady may not be playing quite up at the level he can, the Patriots can lean on the running game in this one with Sonny Michel likely backing up the 100 yard game he had against Miami earlier this season. The Dolphins Defensive Line is strong on the ends, but they have struggled to stop the run and the respect for Brady and the passing game will likely mean Michel can produce a very big game for them.

That could open things up for Brady who has quality Receivers in Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordan and Julian Edelman and the Quarter Back will be aware that Miami could be missing their best player in the Secondary. Brady will get a quick release when he does pass to make sure the Miami pass rush can't disrupt things and I do think the Patriots will be able to move the ball throughout the game barring them melting in the heat of Miami.

Miami will look to do that by controlling the clock and this team have been able to do that when Ryan Tannehill has been at Quarter Back. They have shown they can run the ball effectively and clamping down on the run has been difficult for the Patriots although I imagine Bill Belichick will try and take that away from the Dolphins and force Tannehill to beat them with his arm.

The Dolphins Offensive Line has had some troubles in pass protection of late which would be a concern if they are finding the running lanes harder to come by if the New England schemes are in place. Asking Tannehill to throw to Receivers who have come in to replace some of the injured starters and have consistent success may be too big an ask and I could see the New England Patriots just turning the screw in this one.

There is no doubt the Dolphins are tough to play in South Florida where teams visits and are not used to the temperatures you will find. However the Dolphins are also 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a winning record and they are 6-15 against the spread in their last twenty-one games played in December.

New England are 17-6 against the spread in their last twenty-three road games and they won here two seasons ago in January so I will look for the Patriots to secure a big road win and cover this big number.


Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This may be a non-Conference game, but in a sixteen game season every game means something and that is especially true for the Denver Broncos who are making a late push towards the Play Offs.

At 6-6 the Broncos are not going to win the AFC West which is being dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are very much in contention for one of the Wild Card spots. There isn't much room for mistakes though as the Broncos know they likely need to win out if they are going to achieve their goals and they will be having to do that without Emmanuel Sanders.

Sanders has gone down with a season ending injury and a team who have traded away Demaryius Thomas to the Texans may be short at Receiver. However the Broncos have a dynamic Running Back duo with Philip Lindsay making a mockery of the fact he was not Drafted in the Seven Rounds of the Draft last year.

Lindsay and Royce Freeman should be able to get the Denver Broncos up by running the ball effectively throughout this game and I think they are going to give the San Francisco Defensive Line real problems to deal with. The Broncos Offensive Line has loved paving the way for their Running Backs and it should make Case Keenum's job that much easier when it comes to making plays through the air against a Secondary that is not that good outside of Richard Sherman.

Keenum has hardly been lighting the board up through the air, but he won't need to make huge plays if Denver are running the ball effectively, while the Quarter Back may also be given short fields if Nick Mullens is not able to have a big game for the San Francisco 49ers.

It should be said that the Denver Defensive unit is not up to the level of the team that won the Super Bowl for Peyton Manning, but injuries are hurting San Francisco all around and Mullens is showing why he was a third string Quarter Back.

Matt Breida is also out of action for the 49ers so the pressure may be on Mullens to push himself more than he would want to in order to keep the 49ers in this one. The pass rush is going to be something for Mullens to deal with, but he should also have some success through the air against a Denver Secondary that has not been as strong as they would have wanted.

However they have been able to turn the ball over and Mullens is having issues with Interceptions blighting his game of late and I think that makes the difference here. He will have some success, but Denver are going to make the big plays at the key times which will help them overcome the 49ers and cover what is a pretty big number for any road favourite with the hook going with the home underdog.

Denver did have a pretty poor record as a road team at the window under Coach Joseph, but they have covered in their last four road games and I think they can do that here.

MY PICKS: New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Jets + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)