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Showing posts with label December 10-12. Show all posts
Showing posts with label December 10-12. Show all posts

Friday, 10 December 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 16 Picks (December 10-12)

I spent a few days up in Manchester with the main reason being the short space of time between the Arsenal and Crystal Palace matches at Old Trafford.

It was a great decision- weather aside- and I truly love the place.

The people are some of the best, although I am a little disappointed that some of the character of Manchester has been lost with a new skyline making it feel like you are not that far away from London. Even then, it was a wonderful time to get away for a few days and an opportunity to spend time with friends that is not always there on a match day thanks to the long travelling time it takes to reach the ground.

I am already looking forward to going back and there will be potential dates to do so before the end of this season.


It did mean I was not really concentrating on the Fantasy Football choices and I actually missed the Saturday deadline after a good Friday night out on the tiles. Ultimately the points suffered, but I was not too bothered about being able to hold a transfer, but more on that below my thoughts for the Weekend Premier League games that kick off on Friday through Sunday.


Brentford v Watford Pick: The opening Premier League game of this weekend comes from West London on Friday night and it involves two teams that came up from the Championship last May and who are looking to consolidate their place in the top flight.

If you asked random people on the street as to which of these teams is having the more successful season, the chances are the majority would say Brentford. However, Watford have picked up some vital points at key times and a win on Friday would mean they are only a point behind Brentford.

In recent weeks Brentford have struggled for victories in the Premier League, but they were unfortunate to not record another success when conceding late in the 2-2 draw at Elland Road last Sunday. The defensive vulnerabilities continue to hurt Brentford of late as they are without two of the key performers at the back and I do think Watford have shown enough in the final third over the last six weeks which should see them have joy when they get forward.

Watford created some very good chances in their last away game at Leicester City and they played well in their defeat to Chelsea. The loss to Manchester City showed some of the problems Watford are having in defensive areas too though and Brentford can cause problems even without Sergi Canos and Ivan Toney.

I think those absences hurt, but Brentford play good football and Thomas Frank will have had a week to prepare his team to make up for those that are missing. That should help Brentford, who beat Everton 1-0 in their last game here, but I also think Watford will be better for the time off to work under Claudio Ranieri on the training field.

Both teams hitting the back of the net would not be a big surprise, but I think this is a fixture that both Thomas Frank and Claudio Ranieri will be targeting as a potential three point opportunity. That should mean Brentford and Watford chasing the goals to win the game and I do think there will be at least three shared out on what should be a drier evening in West London.


Manchester City v Wolves Pick: One mistake can see a team drop from the top of the Premier League table very quickly and Manchester City are the latest to take over as leaders of the Division.

It could be a worry for their main title rivals considering the experience Manchester City have in winning the Premier League in recent seasons. They have a squad that is coping with injuries and Manchester City have been producing solid performances at the Etihad Stadium.

A defeat at Leipzig will have bothered Pep Guardiola, but his Manchester City team can bounce back on Saturday as they look to set the pace for the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea who play later on.

Beating Wolves will see Manchester City pull clear of their main title rivals before Liverpool and Chelsea have winnable home games, but the manager will be making sure his team are only focusing on themselves. Phil Foden missing out will hurt, but Manchester City have some key players that look to be rounding into good form and the return of Kevin De Bruyne cannot be underestimated.

This week they are facing a Wolves team that continue to struggle for goals and I do think Manchester City will be able to largely contain their visitors. You know Wolves are going to want to counter and use the pace they have in the final third, but they have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games including in back to back away games at Crystal Palace and Norwich City.

The worry for Bruno Lage is that his team have struggled to create quality chances in their last few games and Wolves may have issues finding their cutting edge against Manchester City. The home team are not exactly piling up the clean sheets themselves, but opponents have been clinical against them and are largely being kept at arm's length by the League leaders.

Last season Manchester City thumped Wolves home and away, but the resilience Wolves showed in their narrow defeat to Liverpool last Saturday will be encouraging. Better finishing would have made life easier for Liverpool on that day, but Wolves created little against them and I think Manchester City will be able to secure the three points in this fixture.

A clean sheet would not be a big surprise and I think the home team will likely win a game that features fewer than four goals on the day.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: There will be some positives for Ralph Hasenhuttl after watching recent Southampton performances, but he will be feeling frustrated that they have not been able to hold onto leads against Leicester City and Brighton in their last couple of home games.

Against the former, Southampton led twice, while last Saturday they conceded deep into injury time in the 1-1 draw with Brighton.

The attacking chances being created are impressive, but Southampton have not been able to put the finishing touches to their football. Danny Ings would have made a real difference for them, but Adam Armstrong and Che Adams have been inconsistent in the final third.

A goalkeeping crisis will not help the mood of the away team and especially not when you have a look at the underlying defensive numbers. Earlier this season Southampton were producing some clean sheets, but more recently they have allowed teams to create really good chances against them and I think that is going to be a problem for them when they visit the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal will have had their confidence dented by back to back defeats at Manchester United and Everton and it is particularly disappointing that they were leading in both of those games. The defensive numbers have not been that impressive all season, but Arsenal were getting away with it at times and it all came to a head in those away games.

However, they have been better at home and Arsenal will be looking for a fifth straight win here. The absence of Emile Smith Rowe will hurt, but Arsenal have been creating chances and I think they will be on the front foot at home having sat in on leads in their last two fixtures.

Mikel Arteta doesn't really want his team to do that and I think they are facing an opponent that can be exploited in defensive areas. Southampton may play their part in this one and they have drawn on their last couple of visits to this Stadium, but Arsenal have been a little more clinical at home.

Arsenal have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League and I think they can win a game that features at least two goals.


Chelsea v Leeds United Pick: Recent results have been troubling for Thomas Tuchel and he will be looking to get his Chelsea team going back to basics. For much of this season Chelsea have been a very tough team to break down, but individual mistakes have been punished over the last few weeks and the six goals conceded to West Ham United and Zenit St Petersburg would have highly irritated the manager.

At least this weekend Chelsea get to return to Stamford Bridge, even though the last couple of Premier League games have both ended 1-1 here. In both Thomas Tuchel was frustrated with the inability of his team to take the chances they had been creating, but Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku are back and amongst the goals and they can give Chelsea a cutting edge.

For all the negatives about the goals being conceded, Chelsea have scored 7 goals in their last 3 games in all competitions. They will certainly believe getting on the front foot may offer the best defence for a team missing key players in the middle of the park, and at least this week Chelsea are facing an opponent who may be having more difficulties on the injury front.

Leeds United secured a late point in their home draw with Brentford last Sunday, but they may have lost Patrick Bamford in the process of the returning striker scoring an equaliser. Key players in defensive and midfield spots are also set to miss out for Leeds United and I think that is important in deciding which may this game goes.

Over the last fourteen months, Leeds United have struggled when facing the top teams in the Premier League and they have been well beaten by both Manchester United and Liverpool this season. Back to back away games at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad Stadium is a real challenge for Leeds United and I do think the goals being scored by Chelsea will be too much for the visitors to cope with.

At least with Raphinha, Leeds United can offer a threat, but Chelsea should be too strong for a team that has been inconsistent all season. Leeds United did earn a goalless draw at Brighton in their last away game, but Chelsea are not going to be as wasteful in front of goal as The Seagulls were that day and it should see the home team find a way to get back to winning ways.

If Chelsea can get off to a good start, they should be good enough to returning to winning form by securing a victory by two or more goals.


Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: The television companies have to be kicking themselves for not selecting this fixture for live coverage after Steven Gerrard was confirmed as manager of Aston Villa.

It will be his first return to Anfield as an opponent and the form under Gerrard will give Aston Villa some encouragement as they look to upset the odds. They have won 3 of their 4 Premier League games under their new manager and that includes a 1-2 win at Crystal Palace in their sole away fixture played.

However, the defeat came against Manchester City and Liverpool are playing as well as any team in Europe, never mind England.

Liverpool have been scoring goals for fun and they have looked pretty secure defensively which has helped them surge up the League table. They will want to keep the pressure on their title rivals with back to back fixtures at Anfield to come this week and Liverpool have won 4 in a row here in all competitions, while keeping clean sheets in each of those.

Steven Gerrard is going to know all about the inner workings of Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp so you do have to imagine he will have prepared Aston Villa effectively. Losing some of the midfielders and attackers that could have been really dangerous on the counter attack hurts the visitors though and I think Gerrard will be looking to contain the home team and hope to frustrate them as Wolves did.

Unfortunately for Aston Villa, Liverpool are creating a lot of chances at the moment and have three attackers in very good form that are likely to exploit any spaces they find. Aston Villa have been looking pretty organised under Gerrard, but they will find it tough to contain Liverpool and another home win is likely.

Aston Villa played well last Sunday, but previously they had not been creating a lot of chances and I think Liverpool can do enough to win this one with a clean sheet for a fifth time in succession at Anfield.


Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: This is not the time of the season when a new manager can spend a lot of time working with his players on the training ground with fixtures set to be played every few days.

However, Ralf Rangnick is putting in the extra hours to make sure his Manchester United team are well aware of what is expected of them. After the 1-1 draw with Young Boys, the manager made it clear he was not too happy with the goal conceded even in a dead rubber game and that intensity should benefit this squad as long as the players are all willing to listen.

It sounded like the squad players did not really impress as much as they could have and especially when you listened to Rangnick after the win over Crystal Palace. He seemed surprised the players were able to pick up his ideas as well as they did and I think a strong Manchester United team will make the long journey to Carrow Road with confidence.

A number of the first team players should be well rested as they look for a third Premier League win in succession and they could be facing the right opponent to do that.

Dean Smith has helped Norwich City pick up some impressive results since he came in as manager to replace Daniel Farke, but the 3-0 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur showed the amount of work to do to bridge the gap to the best teams in the Division. Norwich City created some chances that day, but they looked porous at the back and Manchester United should be able to create opportunities here.

Norwich City will cause some problems, but even having a full week to prepare for this game may not be enough to stay with Manchester United. Make no mistake about the importance of the upcoming game for Norwich City when they face Dean Smith's former team Aston Villa here on Tuesday and I think that could be a distraction for The Canaries.

The first goal is going to be important, but I think Ralf Rangnick will be looking to make sure Manchester United are operating from a solid base and that is key for the visitors. Manchester United have not always been the best away from home this season after a long unbeaten run on their travels in the Premier League, but they can score goals and I think the new manager bounce will help them beat a Norwich City team that are poor at the back.


Burnley v West Ham United Pick: A place in the Last 16 of the Europa League has been secured and that is a second pathway through to the Champions League for West Ham United, but over the coming weeks they can cement their credentials as genuine threat to finish in the top four of the Premier League.

David Moyes has done a terrific job at the London Stadium and his team have beaten both Liverpool and Chelsea at home this season. The only concern is that West Ham United failed to win any of 3 League games after beating Liverpool and they have to show they can back up the victory over Chelsea.

Playing away from home could be a challenge considering West Ham United have struggled to create chances in defeats at Wolves and Manchester City. The first team should be well rested having seen the younger members of the squad take part in the Europa League, but West Ham United still have to come in and try and impose themselves.

They could benefit from the opponent as Burnley are coming in off a defeat to relegation rivals Newcastle United. Sean Dyche is someone who has to be respected for his own performance as manager of Burnley, but this is another slow start to a campaign and the underlying numbers have to be really worrying for anyone who even pays a passing attention to them.

Last weekend it was Newcastle United who dominated the chances and that puts pressure on a Burnley team that are missing some important players. At least Burnley have found a way to goal at home in their last couple of Premier League games here and they should be able to have some success against a visiting team who are without a number of defenders, but ultimately I do think the quality of West Ham United will shine through.

West Ham United won at Turf Moor last season and came from behind to do so and I do think they can do a better job of backing up a big Premier League win by securing another one here.


Leicester City v Newcastle United Pick: Unlike the breakout at Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City's Covid issues are not going to prevent them playing this weekend at the time of writing.

They are due to host Spurs during the week, but that game is much more likely to be postponed and Brendan Rodgers will be focusing on trying to earn an important win on Sunday to move back into the top half of the Premier League table.

It has been an extremely inconsistent season for Leicester City who are underachieving and the fans are losing a little bit of faith in the manager. There have been murmurings of frustration at the King Power Stadium and back to back losses which has included being dumped out of the Europa League will have hurt the confidence of the players.

Leicester City have not been too bad getting forward, but they have been so porous at the back and that has to be encouragement for Newcastle United after winning for the first time this season in their last fixture. Eddie Howe is a manager that likes his team to get forward and cause problems for opponents and Newcastle United have enough quality in the final third to certainly be able to do that here.

Newcastle United have won 3 of their last 4 visits to the King Power Stadium, which will back up their confidence, and it may be a good time to face Leicester City who are travelling back from Naples.

However, I do think Newcastle United are still struggling defensively and Leicester City have shown they can score plenty of goals. The Foxes have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and Brendan Rodgers may feel his team will be very dangerous on the front foot.

Both teams should have chances to score goals, but Leicester City may be able to edge to the points. Newcastle United's win over Burnley is a solid result, but they have been struggling defensively at the back in away games and it should mean Leicester City can create the chances to win this fixture in which goals should be flowing.


Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: You have to believe the 2-1 win for Everton over Arsenal is going to spark the squad that is still getting used to working with Rafael Benitez. Some of the players are rumoured to not completely be on board with Benitez, while injuries have hurt Everton throughout the season.

However, all of that pales into insignificance after the players produced a big performance for Rafael Benitez in overcoming Arsenal. That should show the majority of the players do believe in the Spaniard and Everton will head to South London with a confident attitude as they look to win consecutive games.

Some will feel they are facing Crystal Palace at the right time with Patrick Vieira's men losing 3 Premier League games in a row and struggling for goals. That ignores some of the chances that Crystal Palace have been guilty of missing, while they continue to defend pretty efficiently under their new manager and I do think they will be turning results around pretty soon.

Home form has been decent for Crystal Palace, but they have not been able to turn a few of the draws into wins, while a poor recent home record against Everton has to be on the mind of the players.

Crystal Palace will feel they can hurt Everton who still give up chances though and I do think this is a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. They should be able to get forward and create opportunities for the likes of Wilfred Zaha and Christian Benteke, but Crystal Palace will have to be aware of the qualities that Everton do have in the final third when they are defending.

The problem for Everton is that Crystal Palace have not been giving too much away and I think that is key to the outcome of this fixture. Better finishing will be needed for Crystal Palace, but I think they can fashion the chances to edge past their visitors and just put a bit more distance between themselves and the bottom three.

MY PICKS: Brentford-Watford Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Arsenal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Liverpool Win to Nil
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Leicester City to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Crystal Palace - 0.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 16
So what happened in GameWeek 15?

I had already set my team, as I had suggested in my post before heading away to Manchester, but a heavy night out meant I was not able to make a good decision before the deadline for GW15 and I ended up rolling a transfer.

Ultimately I may have gotten a little lucky- my thinking was to bring in Ben Johnson from West Ham United with the upcoming fixtures, but he picked up an injury in the 3-2 win over Chelsea and is likely to miss out on much of the festive period.

And holding a transfer has not worked out too badly with the Tottenham Hotspur Covid issues that means they are likely to be out of action until GW18 when Liverpool are the visitors to North London (and even that fixture may be in doubt when you consider how long the isolation requests are for people suffering from the new variant).

With Sergio Reguilon and Harry Kane, the obvious decision is to shift both out and I am also contemplating taking a hit to make sure the bench is suitable to cover any unexpected absentees.

It is not ideal to have to do that, but I think it is better than ending up short of numbers in a period when matches are being played every few days.


Talking about Harry Kane, my risky move to pick him as Captain in back to back games worked out terribly- the theory wasn't bad, Tottenham Hotspur scored five goals after all, but Harry Kane didn't even earn an assist in the time and the punishment was complete with Mohamed Salah continuing to produce big numbers.

Harry Kane won't be irritating me for a few days at least, and the obvious Captain choice this week is Salah... Right?

However, I think Aston Villa are capable of making things a little awkward for Liverpool as they battle for manager Steven Gerrard and so I am going to go a different way again- I'll probably regret it by 3:30pm, but I am out on Saturday and so any punishment won't be felt until the games are in the books before Manchester United take the field.

So who am I going with? Check out my team later and you will see the angle played!


The top three clubs are all producing the best defensive numbers, even after Chelsea's difficult week, and so moving Reguilon is likely going to see those three clubs offering out the best options. However, I think Trent Alexander-Arnold has reached a price that is beyond what I can bring in, while Andrew Robertson has four Yellow Cards and could serve a suspension before the New Year.

Manchester City and Chelsea can't be trusted when it comes to the rotations, but the former have the fixtures to make serious ground and the latter have to be feeling they need to go back to basics after conceding six goals in their last two away games.

It is either a decision to move Nelson Semedo or I am going to look to bring in the Watford attacker I have mentioned being intrigued by a few weeks ago. The Watford fixture list eases from GW16 and even better is a quick look at the underlying numbers that they have been producing against the stronger opponents they have been facing.

Emmanuel Dennis and Josh King will both have their backers, although the latter potentially being on Penalties and the numbers since the win over Manchester United makes King the more appealing option as far as I am concerned.

Tuesday, 10 December 2013

Midweek Football Picks 2013 (December 10-12)

The final round of Champions League and Europa League Group games are to be played during the week and while the English clubs all look set to qualify for the last 16 in the Champions League, it is still an important time for them to pick up some momentum.

That is especially true for Manchester United and David Moyes who can't afford to drop his third home game in a row in the space of less than seven days. The result against Everton was a touch unfortunate, but the performance against Newcastle United was nothing like what is expected at Old Trafford, while United also trying to secure top spot in this Group.

Arsenal are the only English club that is yet to secure their passage into the last 16 despite having more points than Chelsea or Manchester United in their Groups, but it would take a big loss in Naples for them to be in danger of exiting the competition.

Generally the big names are all set to progress, which makes finishing top of the Group that much more important for the sides going for it... However, knowing Moyes' luck so far and the pressure he is under, United will likely draw either Dortmund or Juventus in the next round.


Benfica v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: The chance of qualifying for the last 16 is no longer in the hands of Benfica who have to hope that Anderlecht can get some sort of result in Olympiacos as a win for the home team in that game would see the Portuguese former European Cup winners exit the competition.

It has been made clear that Benfica are concentrating mainly on winning their domestic title, but progressing in the Champions League does provide a financial boost for the club, although they have secured a place in the Europa League. They reached the Final of that competition last season, but for now they are concentrating on trying to get as far in the Champions League as possible.

Benfica will feel they will be too strong for a second string Paris Saint-Germain team that will visit Lisbon after securing top spot in the Group. They have a decent record at home in Europe, but I don't think PSG should be under-estimated as a lot of their second team would have an impact at other clubs around Europe.

The theory also goes that Benfica could drop their heads if they hear Olympiacos are winning, but PSG's only defeat in the last couple of years away from home in the Champions League also came in Portugal. I think the Stadium of Light will keep the home team going forward in this one and I do think Benfica will come away with a win, even if they do exit the competition.


Galatasaray v Juventus Pick: Playing in front of the passionate support they receive is usually a big bonus for Galatasaray and the Turkish sides in general, but I feel it could play against them in this game. The fans won't show the patience that Roberto Mancini has urged from his side and they will want Galatasaray to get amongst Juventus and get ahead early in the contest.

While the manager may be asking for patience, the players could be forgiven for losing their discipline with the fans asking them to get forward and that may play into the hands of this Juventus team.

Long gone are the days when Italian clubs would sit back and try and defend what they have- even though a draw will be enough for Juventus to get out of the Group, the Italian giants are unlikely to look to defend to earn a goalless draw.

They have players that can be very effective on the counter and I think Juventus have defended with enough discipline to then exploit spaces that may open up. If Galatasaray get desperate, Juventus have shown they can get forward and score goals, as they did late in their last 16 game with Celtic last season.

Juventus don't win many away games in the Champions League, which does make their odds of winning this game a little short, but I think they can match a win in Shakhtar Donetsk in the last game of the Group last season. Galatasaray could become a little desperate to score as the game goes on and Juventus may capatalise and will be worth backing to win here.


Olympiacos v Anderlecht Pick: You have to feel this is a perfect place for Olympiacos to ensure they book their place in the last 16, but anything less than a win would open the door for Benfica to sneak in front of them.

It won't be an easy game for Olympiacos as Anderlecht have proven to be a far more difficult side to break down on their travels than at home where the onus is on them to attack.

However, I do think Olympiacos have proven to be a very comfortable team at home in the Champions League and that includes beating the likes of Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal here over the last couple of years. Olympiacos have scored plenty of goals at home in recent games and it may be tough for an Anderlecht team to keep up, especially with the lack of motivation to get back into a game if they fall behind.

Olympiacos have won plenty of games here by a couple of goals and I think they can see off Anderlecht with a similar performance in this one.


Manchester United v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: It has been a hard week for David Moyes as manager of Manchester United as they have slipped up twice in quick succession, while the manner of the defeat to Newcastle United was of particular disappointment.

However, the manager will feel there are some positives in returning to Champions League action as that is where his Manchester United team have produced their best performances of the season. There is no pressure on this game with qualification to the last 16 already assured, but United will want to finish top of the Group.

David Moyes will also be able to pair Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney together for the first time since the 1-0 win over Arsenal and I can see the two producing something creative for the home side. United will also benefit from the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk can't afford to sit back and hope Bayer Leverkusen fail to beat an eliminated Real Sociedad and there may be more space to exploit than they would see in a Premier League game.

United have put together their best performances in this competition and I can see them picking up a morale boosting win in this one. They might not need a win to go through, but for confidence David Moyes will be hoping they can do that. I expect Shakhtar to cause problems, but they may be caught on the counter as they look to earn a result if they hear a different score coming from Spain.

At odds against, United do look worth chancing to earn a win in this one.


Chelsea v Steaua Bucharest Pick: Chelsea have responded well to their last 2 defeats over the last month and I am expecting them to get back on the horse in this one after the loss at Stoke City.

They should be too strong for Steaua Bucharest, especially as I am expecting a fair few of the first team to start in this one to ensure Chelsea finish top of the Group. They have scored plenty of goals at Stamford Bridge since the loss to Basel and the strikers have actually performed better in the Champions League than they have in the Premier League for the most part this season.

I don't think it will be straight-forward because Steaua Bucharest have been tougher to play away from home in recent weeks, but they were beaten comfortably in Schalke earlier in the campaign.

With the way Chelsea have been defending, I don't really want to be on them to cover the large looking Asian Handicaps, but I think the bigger price on them scoring at least 3 goals has to be considered.

Chelsea have hit that total in 3 of their last 5 home games and also hit at least that number in their last 2 games against Steaua Bucharest over the last nine months. With top spot up for grabs, I think Jose Mourinho will look to use this game as a confidence builder for the next month of football to be played and I can see Chelsea reaching 3 goals in this game.


Napoli v Arsenal Pick: This is a more important game for Napoli than it is for Arsenal when it comes to qualifying for the last 16 of the Champions League, especially as they need a big win to secure their place in the next round.

While Arsenal can afford a single goal loss, Arsene Wenger will be aware of the importance of finishing top of the Group, particularly this season and his Arsenal side have been burnt by that failure in the past.

The pressure is on Napoli to win this game and that could leave gaps to be exploited by Arsenal as the game goes on. You do have to respect the home record of Napoli in the Champions League and they have beaten Dortmund and Marseille here this season, but Arsenal have won 4 in a row away from home in the competition and they have the speed on the counter to make it five in a row in a game where the home team have to push on.

Of course, Arsenal have a big game on Saturday to prepare for, but I don't foresee Arsene Wenger making too many changes to his first team with qualification not 100% confirmed, and I do think Arsenal can win this one and are worth chancing.

MY PICKS: Benfica @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Juventus @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Olympiacos - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Chelsea Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Arsenal @ 2.88 Coral (1 Unit)

December Update5-5-1, + 3.01 Units (15 Units Staked, + 20.07% Yield)

November Final17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/1463-63-1, + 2.55 Units (200 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Saturday, 24 December 2011

NBA Basketball December Picks

I will be posting up all of my December picks from the NBA in this thread... As there are many games during a month, I will update the results at the bottom of the post, while I won't write full previews for all of my picks.

I will always try and give some explanation as to why I have picked who I have, but sometimes time constraints will make that difficult.

Follow me on Twitter (@DavAulak) where I will always supply a link to this thread whenever new picks are made.

December 25th
Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12771-Miami-Heat-at-Dallas-Mavericks.htm)

Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12772-Orlando-Magic-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)

LA Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12775-LA-Clippers-at-Golden-State.htm)

December 26th
LA Lakers @ Sacramento Kings: I am going to put a single unit on the LA Lakers to cover the spread in this game tonight- while I think the team will be disappointed with their loss to the Bulls with seconds left, I still think the Lakers will want to prove a point to all those who have ruled them out this season.


The Lakers have a strong record in Sacramento, covering the spread in their last 5 road games against the Kings and I will go for them to extend that run today.


December 27th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks: I am going to back the underdog with the points in hand tonight.


Minnesota have a decent starting 5 and I expect improvements from them after last season, while they showed they can at least hang around with some of the better teams when pushing Oklahoma City all the way last night.


They beat the Bucks twice in the pre-season, and they have a 5-2-1 record ATS in the last 8 games in the series. Milwaukee also took a heart-breaking loss in Charlotte last night and may start a little too slowly to cover.


December 28th
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Bobcats Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12806-Miami-Heat-at-Charlotte-Bobcats.htm)

Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12807-Washington-Wizards-at-Atlanta-Hawks.htm)

New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors: I am going to take the points in this one and back the Golden State Warriors to keep it close.


The Knicks have travelled across the country, are playing the Lakers tomorrow night, and face a team expected to be without their best player so they may have their focus not completely on the game.


The Warriors have traditionally been a much stronger team at home, and should be fired up after beating Chicago in their last home game.


Golden State had won 8 in a row at home against the Knicks before a loss here last season and are just 1-4 against the spread in the last 5 games.


December 29th
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers: I always like backing Portland at home as they are a much stronger team there than on the road and I like their chances of covering the spread in this game tonight.

Denver have made a very good start to the season, but this arguably their toughest test after playing an out-of-sorts Dallas and a home game against Utah.



The Nuggets do well against Portland usually, including going 3-1 against the spread last season, but I think the Trail Blazers are playing with a lot of emotion after the retirement of Brandon Roy.


Portland are 10-4-2 against the spread in their last 16 home games, and I think they are still the better team of the two so I will look for them to improve that record here.


December 30th
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12825-Miami-Heat-at-Minnesota-T-Wolves.htm)

New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12826-New-Jersey-Nets-at-Atlanta-Hawks.htm)

December 31st
Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12845-Indiana-Pacers-at-Detroit-Pistons.htm)




MY PICKS: Miami Heat - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Oklahoma City Thunder - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
LA Clippers - 5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
LA Lakers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Minnesota Timberwolves + 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Miami Heat - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Atlanta Hawks - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Golden State Warriors + 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Portland Trail Blazers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Miami Heat - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Atlanta Hawks - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indiana Pacers - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)




December Picks: 6-4-1, + 1.65 Units

Tuesday, 13 December 2011

Things we Learned from the Weekend Football (December 10-12)

I haven't done one of these for a while due to being away and the busy nature of working at the same time as keeping this blog going.

It was another interesting weekend in the Premier League when the title race was reignited, while the teams at the bottom are all jockeying for position and trying their best to avoid the cursed 'bottom of the table at Christmas' position.

The next few weeks are full of football with this being the quietest week we will see until the middle of January. Below are a few thoughts from the weekend football that has just passed:

1) Manchester City are still the right favourites for the Premier League title: The win for Chelsea has at least put a little bit of interest back in the Premier League title race after it had looked like Manchester City were going to run away with the lead.


While they will be disappointed with the defeat at Stamford Bridge, it did take a bit of luck for the home side to grab the win when City were not awarded what looked like a clear penalty while leading the game 0-1.


It will be interesting to see how they react to this defeat, but their next set of fixtures are not the most taxing in my opinion as they face Arsenal (H), Stoke City (H), West Brom (A) and Sunderland (A)... It is entirely possible that their lead at the top of the table is extended after those games.


2) Phil Jones has all the makings of a Centre Midfielder... For now at least: I said when United signed Phil Jones that I expected him to make more appearances as a Centre Midfielder than a Centre Defender- partly that was down to the two centre halves United had and partly because of what I had seen from his time at Blackburn Rovers.


Jones has the drive and box-to-box ability that gives him different abilities than the midfielders at Old Trafford, while I have not been as convinced as the pundits about his performances at centre back.


I find Jones is very much like David Luiz in the fact he comes out with the ball and can find himself in very poor positions positionally when playing at the back.


I expect Jones will be able to learn his trade at the back under the tutelage of some of the players at United, but for now I would keep him in positions like centre midfield and right back where his drive and stamina can be a real strength for the team.


3) Liverpool need to find more goals if they are to finish in the top 4: Liverpool earned a 1-0 win over QPR at the weekend and remain 5 points off the pace set by the sides in the top 4. However, the lack of goals in the side has to be a worry considering they have scored just 18 goals in 15 League games this season.


The Reds have really struggled at home, failing to score more than 1 goal since a win over Wolves at the end of September and they are in need of bringing in another striker who can finish off the number of chances they are creating.


Luis Suarez is a real handful up front, but he could be facing a long suspension if a couple of charges brought by the FA find him guilty, while the Uruguay striker only scored his first goal in 8 games at the weekend.


Andy Carroll has really struggled to justify the ridiculous fee paid for him and I think the likes of Craig Bellamy and Dirk Kuyt are not likely to get the number of goals required for this team to finish higher than the 6th they managed last season.


4) Robin Van Persie is the best striker in the Premier League: The Dutchman has been in fine form this entire calender year, and he has really improved by adding the simple goals to the great ones he was known for scoring.


His strike at the weekend was absolutely sublime and was deserving of winning any game, but I think Arsenal are going to find it tough to keep hold of him this Summer.


Van Persie is 28 and will surely be wanting to win the big trophies now as his career starts coming towards its conclusion. He has not extended his contract and the rumour is that he has already agreed in principle to sign for Manchester City.


5) Bolton Wanderers are in big trouble: Bolton Wanderers have found themselves in a tough position as we move into a crucial period of the season and they are 5 points behind Wolves in the final relegation spot.


A disappointing 1-2 loss at home to Aston Villa at the weekend has begun to increase the pressure on Owen Coyle who has never replaced the loss of Daniel Sturridge and Johann Elmander who left in the Summer.


I think all Trotters fans out there will know a lot more about their future position as a Premier League club as 2012 ticks around- the team face Fulham (A), Blackburn (A), Newcastle (H) and Wolves (H) in the coming two weeks and anything less than 6 points could spell a lot of trouble for the side.


6) The Championship remains a tough Division to predict: You can see why managers and fans always talk about how tough it is to move out of this Division which remains one where any team can beat any other on any given day.


It is telling that there are only 15 points between 6th placed Leeds and 22nd placed Nottingham Forest while any team that gains a couple of wins in a row or loses a couple of games in a row can move a team up and down the table.


It is no surprise that almost every season a team bursts through the pack to make it in to the Play Offs and can cause a surprise or two when they get there.


The only thing that seems certain in this League so far is that Coventry City, a Premier League team up until 2001, are going to have a long season trying to survive from their current position of 13 points from 21 games, leaving them 7 points from the safety zone.