Group A was concluded last night and we already know one of the Semi Final matches as Novak Djokovic will be taking on Stanislas Wawrinka on Sunday and hopefully they can end the season with a match to rival the one they played in one of the first tournaments of the season at the Australian Open.
We also know Rafael Nadal will take on the winner of the Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer match which will be played on Saturday afternoon and that is obviously the match that will garner most of the headlines as the season has just three days left to go (outside of the Davis Cup Final which is played next week).
Roger Federer win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: The last four matches between Juan Martin Del Potro nd Roger Federer have all come on an indoor hard court and it was Federer who had to snap a 3 match losing run against the Argentinian with a win in Paris last week.
All of the matches have had to be decided by a final set and there is every chance that this will be another match that goes the distance as both players can get a little hot at time and run through and take a set.
Both players can sometimes also lose their way and throw in a poor game which will give their opponent a chance and I do believe that this is going to be a quality match with twists and turns.
Del Potro has won both matches played at the World Tour Finals in London, but I do think Federer has looked in a better place physically of the two players and I think he can find a way to just get the better of the big man for the second time in two weeks. Federer has looked vulnerable though so it would be a real surprise to me if he was to win this one in straight sets and a small interest on the 17 time Grand Slam Champion winning this in 3 sets is the call.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This is a dead rubber for both men, but I think Novak Djokovic will be the more motivated as he will want to get this done with minimal fuss to keep his winning run intact and also not to waste too much energy for the Semi Final and potential Final in the next couple of days.
Djokovic has the return game to give Gasquet fits and he defends well enough to really take advantage of some of the movement issues that the Frenchman displays at times on the court.
It is no surprise that Djokovic has dominated the head to head with Gasquet as his game matches up so well against Gasquet's. With the added issue of this being the last game of the season for Gasquet, there is every chance that he could fall away in the second set after losing a close one in the first and I do believe the World Number 2 gets ready for the Semi Final in style.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer win 2-1 @ 4.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 5-5, + 4.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 27.88% Yield)
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Saturday, 9 November 2013
Friday, 8 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks 2013 (November 8th)
The 2013 tennis season is drawing to a close and we now have two players already in the Semi Final after Novak Djokovic joined Rafael Nadal in the last four on Thursday evening. Djokovic has certainly looked the most impressive player so far and has won Group B, so will know exactly who he will face in the Semi Final on Sunday after the Friday matches are completed.
Group A is still up in the air compared with B as there are a number of different scenarios that could determine positions in the section. As far as I am aware, Stanislas Wawrinka cannot win the Group, but there is a situation where Tomas Berdych can win the Group and Rafael Nadal would finish second if all the players finish with the same number of wins on Friday evening.
The only thing we know for sure is that David Ferrer has been knocked out after a long season finally seemed to catch up with him physically and he can already begin thinking about where he wants to go on holiday to try and recharge for a long season. As an admirer of the way Ferrer has approached his career on the Tour, I don't want to write off the Spaniard too early, but I think he could be one of the players that will really have to battle to get back to this tournament in London in twelve months time.
Ferrer has definitely looked like he has slowed down during the latter part of 2013 (ever since the French Open Final I would say) and I am not sure if that was down to him carrying an injury or something more permanent for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I would love to be wrong, but I can see Ferrer slipping down the Rankings in 2014 and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he was to miss the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
The other talking point of the week so far was surrounding the ban that was given to Victor Troicki for missing a drugs test- it has been announced this week that the ban has been reduced to 12 months from the initial 18 months, but that hasn't gone down well with his friend Novak Djokovic. The World Number 2 was adamant that Troicki hadn't done anything wrong and that the blame likes with the Control Officer that had allegedly told Troicki he could skip the test as he was unwell and offer a sample the next day, which was passed.
Djokovic was very upset with his friend having to miss a year, especially after he was also barred from being in the stadium for a Davis Cup match in September, but Roger Federer wasn't as sympathetic to the situation when talking about it after his win over Richard Gasquet. For Federer it was a much more black and white situation, but it will be interesting how that goes down in the Djokovic camp.
There has been a feeling of tension between those two players in the past, while other players have said in a roundabout way that Federer doesn't help with matters concerning the players as much as someone of his high-profile should. Even Rafael Nadal hinted as such back at the Australian Open in 2012 and this Troicki discussion is the not the first time Federer has disagreed with the two leading players on the men's Tour.
The schedule, the blue clay in Madrid last year and even whether the World Tour Finals should be moved from London at the end of the current contract has seen Federer and Nadal/Djokovic offer differing views and I do wonder if there is more tension there than they openly admit. In saying that, Federer wins a lot of awards from his peers so who knows?!!
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: David Ferrer may have the lead in the head to head between these players, but it was Stanislas Wawrinka that won their most recent match and it is also the Swiss man who has looked more comfortable this week.
I really respect David Ferrer, but he has looked physically spent in his two matches so far and I think it is going to be tough for him to find the level of motivation to turn things around and win this match as he is out of the tournament no matter what happens.
Wawrinka has been serving well for most of the week and he is clearly relishing being at the World Tour Finals for the first time. He pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in the second match he played this week, but the critical match was the win over Tomas Berdych and I think he would be expecting Nadal to beat the Czech player again.
Usually I would consider this a tough match for Wawrinka as Ferrer has the game to extract errors, but it is the former that has played better so far and I expect him to do enough behind his own serve to keep the pressure on the Spaniard. While Ferrer may want to put in a big effort, it is a big ask for him to be ready physically for this match and I think Wawrinka will come through 64, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Rafael Nadal will win this Group as long as he wins one set in the match, but he has gotten the better of Tomas Berdych ever since their infamous match in Madrid, including once here in London at the World Tour Finals.
I don't believe Nadal is a player that is going to put in a poor effort, or just concentrate on winning one set in this match, although Tomas Berdych is certainly capable of posing his own problems for Nadal to figure out.
However, the big man can be guilty of overplaying the situation when it comes to break points or big moments in matches and the 11 sets in a row he has lost to Nadal doesn't bode well for his chances of qualifying for the Semi Finals. Berdych could be in a position where he has already qualified though if David Ferrer can surprise Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match of the day, but I can't see that coming if I am honest and that means he will have to win this match.
With that pressure on him, I can see Berdych perhaps being overly aggressive and making life difficult for himself in this one and that should play into Nadal's hands. The World Number 1 will have to serve better than he did against Wawrinka on Wednesday, but he has gotten the better of Berdych by proving to be the tougher player mentally and I do think that makes a difference again.
If Berdych loses a close, hard fought first set, it may be too much for him to come back and I think Nadal can come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)
Group A is still up in the air compared with B as there are a number of different scenarios that could determine positions in the section. As far as I am aware, Stanislas Wawrinka cannot win the Group, but there is a situation where Tomas Berdych can win the Group and Rafael Nadal would finish second if all the players finish with the same number of wins on Friday evening.
The only thing we know for sure is that David Ferrer has been knocked out after a long season finally seemed to catch up with him physically and he can already begin thinking about where he wants to go on holiday to try and recharge for a long season. As an admirer of the way Ferrer has approached his career on the Tour, I don't want to write off the Spaniard too early, but I think he could be one of the players that will really have to battle to get back to this tournament in London in twelve months time.
Ferrer has definitely looked like he has slowed down during the latter part of 2013 (ever since the French Open Final I would say) and I am not sure if that was down to him carrying an injury or something more permanent for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I would love to be wrong, but I can see Ferrer slipping down the Rankings in 2014 and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he was to miss the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
The other talking point of the week so far was surrounding the ban that was given to Victor Troicki for missing a drugs test- it has been announced this week that the ban has been reduced to 12 months from the initial 18 months, but that hasn't gone down well with his friend Novak Djokovic. The World Number 2 was adamant that Troicki hadn't done anything wrong and that the blame likes with the Control Officer that had allegedly told Troicki he could skip the test as he was unwell and offer a sample the next day, which was passed.
Djokovic was very upset with his friend having to miss a year, especially after he was also barred from being in the stadium for a Davis Cup match in September, but Roger Federer wasn't as sympathetic to the situation when talking about it after his win over Richard Gasquet. For Federer it was a much more black and white situation, but it will be interesting how that goes down in the Djokovic camp.
There has been a feeling of tension between those two players in the past, while other players have said in a roundabout way that Federer doesn't help with matters concerning the players as much as someone of his high-profile should. Even Rafael Nadal hinted as such back at the Australian Open in 2012 and this Troicki discussion is the not the first time Federer has disagreed with the two leading players on the men's Tour.
The schedule, the blue clay in Madrid last year and even whether the World Tour Finals should be moved from London at the end of the current contract has seen Federer and Nadal/Djokovic offer differing views and I do wonder if there is more tension there than they openly admit. In saying that, Federer wins a lot of awards from his peers so who knows?!!
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: David Ferrer may have the lead in the head to head between these players, but it was Stanislas Wawrinka that won their most recent match and it is also the Swiss man who has looked more comfortable this week.
I really respect David Ferrer, but he has looked physically spent in his two matches so far and I think it is going to be tough for him to find the level of motivation to turn things around and win this match as he is out of the tournament no matter what happens.
Wawrinka has been serving well for most of the week and he is clearly relishing being at the World Tour Finals for the first time. He pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in the second match he played this week, but the critical match was the win over Tomas Berdych and I think he would be expecting Nadal to beat the Czech player again.
Usually I would consider this a tough match for Wawrinka as Ferrer has the game to extract errors, but it is the former that has played better so far and I expect him to do enough behind his own serve to keep the pressure on the Spaniard. While Ferrer may want to put in a big effort, it is a big ask for him to be ready physically for this match and I think Wawrinka will come through 64, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Rafael Nadal will win this Group as long as he wins one set in the match, but he has gotten the better of Tomas Berdych ever since their infamous match in Madrid, including once here in London at the World Tour Finals.
I don't believe Nadal is a player that is going to put in a poor effort, or just concentrate on winning one set in this match, although Tomas Berdych is certainly capable of posing his own problems for Nadal to figure out.
However, the big man can be guilty of overplaying the situation when it comes to break points or big moments in matches and the 11 sets in a row he has lost to Nadal doesn't bode well for his chances of qualifying for the Semi Finals. Berdych could be in a position where he has already qualified though if David Ferrer can surprise Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match of the day, but I can't see that coming if I am honest and that means he will have to win this match.
With that pressure on him, I can see Berdych perhaps being overly aggressive and making life difficult for himself in this one and that should play into Nadal's hands. The World Number 1 will have to serve better than he did against Wawrinka on Wednesday, but he has gotten the better of Berdych by proving to be the tougher player mentally and I do think that makes a difference again.
If Berdych loses a close, hard fought first set, it may be too much for him to come back and I think Nadal can come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)
Thursday, 7 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2013 (November 7th)
It has been a wonderful season for Rafael Nadal and all of his fans and it was confirmed on Wednesday that he will finish the year as the World Number 1... That is a remarkable achievement for a player that had missed all the time on the Tour between Wimbledon 2012 and February 2013, but he has played at an extremely high level all season.
There will be a lot of points for him to defend after the Australian Open, but he should be able to keep clear of Novak Djokovic if Nadal can continue his dominance on the clay courts.
I have to credit Djokovic for pushing Nadal all the way considering he has won one Grand Slam and has lost a lot of big matches including the US Open Final. Since then, the Serb has been on a hot streak and there is a feeling that he has felt more comfortable in the role of having someone to chase in the Rankings rather than being closed down as he was by Nadal for much of the season.
The Australian Open has been Djokovic's domain over the last few years and he will be looking to end this week on a high by winning the tournament for the second year in a row to really set a marker down for next season . He will then go into Melbourne Park as the favourite and he might start eating into the Nadal points lead after that with confidence that he could perhaps take the French Open crown that he has set his heart on.
With Andy Murray to return to the mix and the likes of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro hoping to have big years, men's tennis continues to look like it is in a golden period moving through to 2014.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Group B was clearly going to be a tough section for Roger Federer to negotiate with both Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro to face before the Semi Finals and he is already in a 'must win' situation.
Federer would have been vastly disappointed he didn't complete the win over Novak Djokovic in the first round of matches considering he won the second set and seemed to have all the momentum on his side. That is the second time in under a week that he was beaten by Djokovic despite looking like he was in a position to win the match.
The question now becomes how will he react to losing twice to the World Number 2 in quick succession, but he is playing an opponent that might not have the mental strength to take out Federer. Richard Gasquet has won 2 of his 12 matches against Federer, but he too is off a vastly disappointing defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro and it will be interesting to see his reaction to that defeat.
I have no doubt that this season is as vulnerable as Federer has looked on a tennis court since before he won his first Grand Slam title in 2003, but I still think he has enough in the tank to see off Gasquet. Federer has to find a better edge between his aggression and getting into rallies, but I believe he will have the more chances to break serve and I do think he can set up a clash with Juan Martin Del Potro that will determine who makes it through to the Semi Finals.
Federer has won the two previous matches against Gasquet on an indoor hard court without dropping a set and I think he can do something similar in this one. I look for him to come through 64, 64 and earn the cover.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Novak Djokovic looked a little lethargic in the second set of his win over Roger Federer, but he found reserves of strength to keep his winning run intact since his loss in the US Open Final.
He might need the same reserves to see off one of the best indoor hard court players on the Tour in Juan Martin Del Potro, but there were also times in his win over Richard Gasquet that the big man looked a little tired and slow.
You can't really tell from the body language as to how Del Potro is really feeling, while these two have had some real close matches in recent months. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see another three setter between two players that could very easily be contesting the Final on Monday and I am expecting to see a quality match as both have had at least a couple of days to rest between matches.
I just have a feeling that Djokovic is playing with a lot of belief that he won't lose at the moment and that might be the difference between the two players. Djokovic is the better returner of serve and I can see that being the main reason he is able to come through, but it would be no surprise to me if the first two sets are shared with Del Potro more than capable of stealing a break of serve and holding on to take a set.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-4, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
There will be a lot of points for him to defend after the Australian Open, but he should be able to keep clear of Novak Djokovic if Nadal can continue his dominance on the clay courts.
I have to credit Djokovic for pushing Nadal all the way considering he has won one Grand Slam and has lost a lot of big matches including the US Open Final. Since then, the Serb has been on a hot streak and there is a feeling that he has felt more comfortable in the role of having someone to chase in the Rankings rather than being closed down as he was by Nadal for much of the season.
The Australian Open has been Djokovic's domain over the last few years and he will be looking to end this week on a high by winning the tournament for the second year in a row to really set a marker down for next season . He will then go into Melbourne Park as the favourite and he might start eating into the Nadal points lead after that with confidence that he could perhaps take the French Open crown that he has set his heart on.
With Andy Murray to return to the mix and the likes of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro hoping to have big years, men's tennis continues to look like it is in a golden period moving through to 2014.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Group B was clearly going to be a tough section for Roger Federer to negotiate with both Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro to face before the Semi Finals and he is already in a 'must win' situation.
Federer would have been vastly disappointed he didn't complete the win over Novak Djokovic in the first round of matches considering he won the second set and seemed to have all the momentum on his side. That is the second time in under a week that he was beaten by Djokovic despite looking like he was in a position to win the match.
The question now becomes how will he react to losing twice to the World Number 2 in quick succession, but he is playing an opponent that might not have the mental strength to take out Federer. Richard Gasquet has won 2 of his 12 matches against Federer, but he too is off a vastly disappointing defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro and it will be interesting to see his reaction to that defeat.
I have no doubt that this season is as vulnerable as Federer has looked on a tennis court since before he won his first Grand Slam title in 2003, but I still think he has enough in the tank to see off Gasquet. Federer has to find a better edge between his aggression and getting into rallies, but I believe he will have the more chances to break serve and I do think he can set up a clash with Juan Martin Del Potro that will determine who makes it through to the Semi Finals.
Federer has won the two previous matches against Gasquet on an indoor hard court without dropping a set and I think he can do something similar in this one. I look for him to come through 64, 64 and earn the cover.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Novak Djokovic looked a little lethargic in the second set of his win over Roger Federer, but he found reserves of strength to keep his winning run intact since his loss in the US Open Final.
He might need the same reserves to see off one of the best indoor hard court players on the Tour in Juan Martin Del Potro, but there were also times in his win over Richard Gasquet that the big man looked a little tired and slow.
You can't really tell from the body language as to how Del Potro is really feeling, while these two have had some real close matches in recent months. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see another three setter between two players that could very easily be contesting the Final on Monday and I am expecting to see a quality match as both have had at least a couple of days to rest between matches.
I just have a feeling that Djokovic is playing with a lot of belief that he won't lose at the moment and that might be the difference between the two players. Djokovic is the better returner of serve and I can see that being the main reason he is able to come through, but it would be no surprise to me if the first two sets are shared with Del Potro more than capable of stealing a break of serve and holding on to take a set.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-4, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Wednesday, 6 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks 2013 (November 6th)
The first round robin matches are in the books at the World Tour Finals, but it is a quick turnaround for Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer who won't have a day of rest between matches as their opponents will.
It will be interesting to see if that gives Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych a chance to overcome opponents that have dominated the head to head. I do think one of the players has a chance to win their match, but the other could go the same way as previous matches have ended.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 game v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Tomas Berdych has given him a great platform to go through to the Semi Finals in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals, but this could be a tough second match for him.
I wasn't sure if Rafael Nadal was feeling the strain of a long season after his performance in Paris last week, but he dominated his first match against David Ferrer, albeit against a tired opponent.
The match up is a good one for Nadal simply because his best shot is going into Wawrinka's exceptional one-handed backhand... No matter how well Wawrinka plays that shot, Nadal's spin and power certainly pushes the Swiss man to the back of the court and it is a very difficult place to consistently win points against someone like the Spaniard.
Nadal's backhand is also a little more solid than Wawrinka's forehand and this match will come down to whether Wawrinka can serve well enough to keep himself in control of the points on that side of the court.
There is a chance that Wawrinka could also decide to keep some energy in reserve if he loses the first set in this match and that could give Nadal the chance to run away with the second, especially as Nadal is not the kind of player that slackens off on any point.
Wawrinka may keep this close if he serves very well, but I think Nadal eventually comes through 64, 62.
Tomas Berdych v David Ferrer: David Ferrer has won 8 of the 11 matches against Tomas Berdych including 3 out of 4 matches on an indoor hard court. He beat Berdych from a set down in Paris last week, but Berdych can point to the fact that he has won their sole match at this tournament a couple of years ago.
Ferrer looked knackered mentally and physically in his loss to Rafael Nadal and made far too many mistakes in that match, but he will definitely make this closer if he can just tone those downs. Some of the misses were very close to the lines so it won't take a lot of adjustments for him to win those points.
He does match up well with Berdych as he can diffuse the big weapons that the Czech player brings to the court, but I don't know how he is feeling physically after a long season which has been back loaded somewhat as he has played the most matches of the players in London since the US Open.
Berdych himself will think he has to be a little more efficient on break point chances if he is going to win this match after failing to break Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match here. The match in Paris and the match in London a couple of years ago were both close and it will take a point here and there to separate the players in my opinion.
I just have this feeling that Ferrer doesn't have a lot left in the tank and if Berdych can at least split the first two sets, he might be able to outlast a player that has been known for his stamina reserves but who might have left too much on the court in Paris last week.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 1-3, - 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, - 13.4% Yield)
It will be interesting to see if that gives Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych a chance to overcome opponents that have dominated the head to head. I do think one of the players has a chance to win their match, but the other could go the same way as previous matches have ended.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 game v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Tomas Berdych has given him a great platform to go through to the Semi Finals in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals, but this could be a tough second match for him.
I wasn't sure if Rafael Nadal was feeling the strain of a long season after his performance in Paris last week, but he dominated his first match against David Ferrer, albeit against a tired opponent.
The match up is a good one for Nadal simply because his best shot is going into Wawrinka's exceptional one-handed backhand... No matter how well Wawrinka plays that shot, Nadal's spin and power certainly pushes the Swiss man to the back of the court and it is a very difficult place to consistently win points against someone like the Spaniard.
Nadal's backhand is also a little more solid than Wawrinka's forehand and this match will come down to whether Wawrinka can serve well enough to keep himself in control of the points on that side of the court.
There is a chance that Wawrinka could also decide to keep some energy in reserve if he loses the first set in this match and that could give Nadal the chance to run away with the second, especially as Nadal is not the kind of player that slackens off on any point.
Wawrinka may keep this close if he serves very well, but I think Nadal eventually comes through 64, 62.
Tomas Berdych v David Ferrer: David Ferrer has won 8 of the 11 matches against Tomas Berdych including 3 out of 4 matches on an indoor hard court. He beat Berdych from a set down in Paris last week, but Berdych can point to the fact that he has won their sole match at this tournament a couple of years ago.
Ferrer looked knackered mentally and physically in his loss to Rafael Nadal and made far too many mistakes in that match, but he will definitely make this closer if he can just tone those downs. Some of the misses were very close to the lines so it won't take a lot of adjustments for him to win those points.
He does match up well with Berdych as he can diffuse the big weapons that the Czech player brings to the court, but I don't know how he is feeling physically after a long season which has been back loaded somewhat as he has played the most matches of the players in London since the US Open.
Berdych himself will think he has to be a little more efficient on break point chances if he is going to win this match after failing to break Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match here. The match in Paris and the match in London a couple of years ago were both close and it will take a point here and there to separate the players in my opinion.
I just have this feeling that Ferrer doesn't have a lot left in the tank and if Berdych can at least split the first two sets, he might be able to outlast a player that has been known for his stamina reserves but who might have left too much on the court in Paris last week.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 1-3, - 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, - 13.4% Yield)
Tuesday, 5 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 2 Picks 2013 (November 5th)
The first day of the World Tour Finals showed how close, yet so far, the picks from the tennis Tour have been over the second half of the season.
Whether it was Tomas Berdych having all the momentum going into the final set against Stanislas Wawrinka, or Juan Martin Del Potro missing the simplest of volleys to put away Richard Gasquet in the second set, things have come really close, but not quite got over the hill.
I don't care how much research you put into a match, at the end of the day you need the element of luck that will help you either get it correct or not. That luck has certainly not been with the picks over the last four months and that has unfortunately made it a tough season all around after another positive start. Let's see if the luck returns on Tuesday as the first round of Group matches are completed with three of the biggest names in men's tennis all in action for the lucky attendees at the O2 in London.
Those going to the tournament should enjoy it while they can after both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic suggested London have had the World Tour Finals for long enough and that the event should be moved in 2015. The feeling is that they can promote the sport better in places the Tour doesn't frequent, for example areas of South America where the big players usually won't participate.
For example, the South American clay court swing after the Australian Open is generally ignored by the top, top players who will go to Rotterdam and Dubai instead, so seeing the Tour Finals move to Argentina (where Juan Martin Del Potro would be a big draw) or Brazil could be the next potential move.
The O2 will certainly very much like to keep the event, but when two of the biggest names (certainly will be in 2015 as we can assume Roger Federer won't be the force he is now) suggest it is time for a move, the ATP Tour will sit up and listen.
Rafael Nadal win 2-1 v David Ferrer: The first two matches in the O2 have both gone the distance and I have a feeling this will be the third in a row to end that way, although I do think Rafael Nadal can get a bit of revenge for his Semi Final defeat by David Ferrer last week in Paris.
That match saw Ferrer take advantage of a little bit of tiredness that Nadal displayed, while the motivation for the Spanish number 2 was definitely higher than it was for Nadal. With so many points to defend from last season, Ferrer was highly motivated on Saturday, but he may not have had enough time to recover from the Sunday Final and now playing this match on Tuesday afternoon.
This time, Nadal has the higher motivation with the chance to secure the World Number 1 Ranking with a couple of wins here and moving through to the Semi Finals. He will see Ferrer as possibly the biggest obstacle for the chance to get out of this Group and I just feel the extra day off will prove critical for Nadal after a long season.
Indoor hard courts are not Nadal's favourite surface and that is shown by his relatively poor record at the World Tour Finals- I don't think he will win the tournament this week, but I think he can reverse the result from last week.
I would be extremely surprised if it is an easy win though as Ferrer has made the majority of their matches this season competitive, taking a set in 3 of their 5 matches. He won last week to give him the confidence he can do the same this time around, but I think Nadal comes through after 2 and a half hours in three tough sets.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Roger Federer: I have to say that Roger Federer looked about as good as he has in months when he pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in Paris last week and there might also be a feeling that the 17 time Grand Slam Champion missed his chance to end the Serb's current winning streak.
Federer was a set and a break up against Djokovic who looked flat for much of the first half of that match, but it was the latter that turned things around and then went on to win the Paris Masters. How much that has taken out of him is yet to be known, but I do think Djokovic can back up his win over Federer and take the points fro this opening match.
It says a lot more about Federer's year that last week was the first time he played Novak Djokovic this season- obviously draws can keep players apart, but Djokovic is usually around at the business end of tournaments and Federer hasn't done the same for most of the year. However, he may be in a good position to take on Djokovic after Federer admitted he is feeling at his best for the first time in months, while his opponent was playing in Paris up until Sunday.
I still think there is a mental burden to overcome for Federer who hasn't had a big win in a long time now, possibly not since this tournament last season... He might be playing well enough to take a set, but Novak Djokovic could grind him down and win this in three sets.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals 2013: 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Whether it was Tomas Berdych having all the momentum going into the final set against Stanislas Wawrinka, or Juan Martin Del Potro missing the simplest of volleys to put away Richard Gasquet in the second set, things have come really close, but not quite got over the hill.
I don't care how much research you put into a match, at the end of the day you need the element of luck that will help you either get it correct or not. That luck has certainly not been with the picks over the last four months and that has unfortunately made it a tough season all around after another positive start. Let's see if the luck returns on Tuesday as the first round of Group matches are completed with three of the biggest names in men's tennis all in action for the lucky attendees at the O2 in London.
Those going to the tournament should enjoy it while they can after both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic suggested London have had the World Tour Finals for long enough and that the event should be moved in 2015. The feeling is that they can promote the sport better in places the Tour doesn't frequent, for example areas of South America where the big players usually won't participate.
For example, the South American clay court swing after the Australian Open is generally ignored by the top, top players who will go to Rotterdam and Dubai instead, so seeing the Tour Finals move to Argentina (where Juan Martin Del Potro would be a big draw) or Brazil could be the next potential move.
The O2 will certainly very much like to keep the event, but when two of the biggest names (certainly will be in 2015 as we can assume Roger Federer won't be the force he is now) suggest it is time for a move, the ATP Tour will sit up and listen.
Rafael Nadal win 2-1 v David Ferrer: The first two matches in the O2 have both gone the distance and I have a feeling this will be the third in a row to end that way, although I do think Rafael Nadal can get a bit of revenge for his Semi Final defeat by David Ferrer last week in Paris.
That match saw Ferrer take advantage of a little bit of tiredness that Nadal displayed, while the motivation for the Spanish number 2 was definitely higher than it was for Nadal. With so many points to defend from last season, Ferrer was highly motivated on Saturday, but he may not have had enough time to recover from the Sunday Final and now playing this match on Tuesday afternoon.
This time, Nadal has the higher motivation with the chance to secure the World Number 1 Ranking with a couple of wins here and moving through to the Semi Finals. He will see Ferrer as possibly the biggest obstacle for the chance to get out of this Group and I just feel the extra day off will prove critical for Nadal after a long season.
Indoor hard courts are not Nadal's favourite surface and that is shown by his relatively poor record at the World Tour Finals- I don't think he will win the tournament this week, but I think he can reverse the result from last week.
I would be extremely surprised if it is an easy win though as Ferrer has made the majority of their matches this season competitive, taking a set in 3 of their 5 matches. He won last week to give him the confidence he can do the same this time around, but I think Nadal comes through after 2 and a half hours in three tough sets.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Roger Federer: I have to say that Roger Federer looked about as good as he has in months when he pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in Paris last week and there might also be a feeling that the 17 time Grand Slam Champion missed his chance to end the Serb's current winning streak.
Federer was a set and a break up against Djokovic who looked flat for much of the first half of that match, but it was the latter that turned things around and then went on to win the Paris Masters. How much that has taken out of him is yet to be known, but I do think Djokovic can back up his win over Federer and take the points fro this opening match.
It says a lot more about Federer's year that last week was the first time he played Novak Djokovic this season- obviously draws can keep players apart, but Djokovic is usually around at the business end of tournaments and Federer hasn't done the same for most of the year. However, he may be in a good position to take on Djokovic after Federer admitted he is feeling at his best for the first time in months, while his opponent was playing in Paris up until Sunday.
I still think there is a mental burden to overcome for Federer who hasn't had a big win in a long time now, possibly not since this tournament last season... He might be playing well enough to take a set, but Novak Djokovic could grind him down and win this in three sets.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals 2013: 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Monday, 4 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 1 Picks 2013 (November 4th)
I know a lot of British tennis fans will be disappointed that Andy Murray is not taking part at the World Tour Finals this week, but the final tournament of the 2013 season has put together a lot of big names and I think it will be a fascinating week.
Group B is the the tougher one to predict this week as it contains three players that will expect they can go all the way and win the event, while Richard Gasquet could be forgiven for seeing this as a successful season regardless of what happens on the court.
Group A is potentially problematic for Rafael Nadal, especially as he has admitted that this has been a long season, but he should be motivated to reach the Semi Finals at the very least and finish the year as the World Number 1 ahead of the new season.
I don't think Nadal will have a problem getting out of a Group where two of the players certainly have a mental block when it comes to playing the Spaniard, although Nadal will look to get a bit of revenge over David Ferrer in his opening match on Tuesday.
The scheduling has been changed a little for the opening two days than we have become accustomed to, much down to the fact that a member of each Group was playing in the Final of the Paris Masters on Sunday. I am guessing the scheduling will go back to normal on Wednesday through to the rest of the tournament, and hopefully I will get time to go down to the O2 and catch a match or two.
Tomas Berdych win 2-1 v Stanislas Wawrinka: This is a new experience for Stanislas Wawrinka and I think that is the reason that Tomas Berdych will be able to come through and win this match, although it should be remarkably close.
The two players have always been well matches with Berdych winning 5 and Wawrinka winning 7, but recent meetings have generally gone the way of the Swiss man who has won 5 of the last 6 between them.
However, the only two indoor hard court meetings in that time have been won by Berdych and I think his experience of playing at the O2 is going to be invaluable. Wawrinka has a big game that should see him take a set and I definitely favour this one to be decided by a critical third set that will put the losing player in a very tough position to qualify for the Semi Finals.
The indoor conditions do make the service action a little more comfortable for Berdych, but he has to overcome a mental barrier having lost so many recent matches to Wawrinka. Familiarity with the conditions and the arena may just prove to be the biggest difference in a match where both men should have their chances to win it. I just think Berdych is the more comfortable indoor player and will show that in three tough sets.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This isn't a great match up for Richard Gasquet who can be overpowered by some of the best players on the Tour and Juan Martin Del Potro is also one of the best indoor players in the World at this moment.
There were signs of tiredness in Del Potro last week, but he has had a few days off and I think he can take advantage of Gasquet who may just be glad that he finally got back to the World Tour Finals.
Del Potro has also dominated his matches with Gasquet and I think the big man should be able to dominate this match behind his power. I also think the Frenchman can be guilty of falling apart at times and I like Del Potro to win 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Group B is the the tougher one to predict this week as it contains three players that will expect they can go all the way and win the event, while Richard Gasquet could be forgiven for seeing this as a successful season regardless of what happens on the court.
Group A is potentially problematic for Rafael Nadal, especially as he has admitted that this has been a long season, but he should be motivated to reach the Semi Finals at the very least and finish the year as the World Number 1 ahead of the new season.
I don't think Nadal will have a problem getting out of a Group where two of the players certainly have a mental block when it comes to playing the Spaniard, although Nadal will look to get a bit of revenge over David Ferrer in his opening match on Tuesday.
The scheduling has been changed a little for the opening two days than we have become accustomed to, much down to the fact that a member of each Group was playing in the Final of the Paris Masters on Sunday. I am guessing the scheduling will go back to normal on Wednesday through to the rest of the tournament, and hopefully I will get time to go down to the O2 and catch a match or two.
Tomas Berdych win 2-1 v Stanislas Wawrinka: This is a new experience for Stanislas Wawrinka and I think that is the reason that Tomas Berdych will be able to come through and win this match, although it should be remarkably close.
The two players have always been well matches with Berdych winning 5 and Wawrinka winning 7, but recent meetings have generally gone the way of the Swiss man who has won 5 of the last 6 between them.
However, the only two indoor hard court meetings in that time have been won by Berdych and I think his experience of playing at the O2 is going to be invaluable. Wawrinka has a big game that should see him take a set and I definitely favour this one to be decided by a critical third set that will put the losing player in a very tough position to qualify for the Semi Finals.
The indoor conditions do make the service action a little more comfortable for Berdych, but he has to overcome a mental barrier having lost so many recent matches to Wawrinka. Familiarity with the conditions and the arena may just prove to be the biggest difference in a match where both men should have their chances to win it. I just think Berdych is the more comfortable indoor player and will show that in three tough sets.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This isn't a great match up for Richard Gasquet who can be overpowered by some of the best players on the Tour and Juan Martin Del Potro is also one of the best indoor players in the World at this moment.
There were signs of tiredness in Del Potro last week, but he has had a few days off and I think he can take advantage of Gasquet who may just be glad that he finally got back to the World Tour Finals.
Del Potro has also dominated his matches with Gasquet and I think the big man should be able to dominate this match behind his power. I also think the Frenchman can be guilty of falling apart at times and I like Del Potro to win 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Thursday, 24 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 24th)
It has truly been a terrible week when it comes to the tennis picks being made, but those have mainly been my own fault with some poor decisions made on my part. Sometimes you can look at bad luck, but this has not been one of those weeks as I have picked some poor matches and players haven't even been in matches that they have lost.
Anyway, hopefully Thursday will prove to be a better day for the picks going forward.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I think 2014 will see David Ferrer begin to drop rapidly down the World Rankings, especially the early part of the season when he has a lot of points to defend, while he has to do more of the same in the next couple of weeks.
Twelve months ago, Ferrer won the tournament in Valencia and followed that up with his first Masters win in Paris, and he got off to a decent start with a win over Gael Monfils yesterday. That will give him some confidence after Ferrer has really struggled for form since reaching the French Open Final and he has a number of surprise losses on his record since then.
It certainly isn't an easy match against Julien Benneteau who is coming off an impressive dismantling of Feliciano Lopez and the Frenchman has always enjoyed the indoor hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Benneteau has a surprisingly decent serve, although his second serve isn't as strong, and he can certainly play enough good tennis to break serve so Ferrer will have to be on his toes in this one. However, I do think that Ferrer is going to be able to earn a bit more from the longer rallies in this one.
I won't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I think Ferrer can come through with a 75, 64 win.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro is defending his title in Basel this week after a successful Asian swing and he has proven to be one of the best indoor players on the Tour over the last couple of years.
Just looking at his last twelve months will show he has titles in Basel, Vienna and Rotterdam, while he has also reached the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and Del Potro will certainly be tough to stop here this week.
Even with that in mind, I think Marcos Baghdatis could cause him some problems as he has in their past meetings and I like the Cypriot's chances to make this a competitive match despite a terrible 2013 season. I think Baghdatis causes problems for Del Potro because he is pretty strong off the ground and is willing to match what Del Potro brings to the court, although that is also why he hasn't been able to sustain that and actually beat the Argentinian player in their three matches this season.
There is every chance that Baghdatis can take a set in this one and that should put him in a position to cover the spread, although he will have to serve well too which can be an issue for him.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Na Li didn't return serve very well in her win over Sara Errani, but could book her place in the Semi Final with a win over Jelena Jankovic who is coming off an impressive win over Victoria Azarenka.
There is slightly less pressure on Jankovic which could make her a dangerous opponent, especially as she will face an injured Errani in her final match in the Group and the win over Azarenka puts the Serb in a strong spot.
I do think Li is the stronger player of the two, especially as Jankovic can be so erratic from day to day and she may also just relax a little too much off a big win as she had yesterday. The return game from Li will be the key in this one and she has to perform better in those positions than she did against Errani, but she had a lot of success against the Jankovic in the US Open that she can replicate here.
It will be close, but Li could come through 63, 76.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: It may be too late for Agnieszka Radwanska to qualify for the Semi Finals after losing her first two matches without winning a set, but she could have a small chance of going through if she wins this match impressively.
Radwanska has the game to make life very awkward for Angelique Kerber and the pressure is also on the German following her loss to Serena Williams in her opening match. Kerber does have decent ground strokes, but she is too often comfortable getting dragged into long rallies and you would have to back Radwanska to win the majority of those battles.
Both players will definitely feel more comfortable returning serve and they have split two matches over the last month, but I do think Radwanska's game is more reliable of the two. If Kerber serves particularly well, that could be a different story, while Radwanska dropping the first set may see her 'tank' the match, but I do believe the Pole is going to come through to give herself a small chance of progressing to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Anyway, hopefully Thursday will prove to be a better day for the picks going forward.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I think 2014 will see David Ferrer begin to drop rapidly down the World Rankings, especially the early part of the season when he has a lot of points to defend, while he has to do more of the same in the next couple of weeks.
Twelve months ago, Ferrer won the tournament in Valencia and followed that up with his first Masters win in Paris, and he got off to a decent start with a win over Gael Monfils yesterday. That will give him some confidence after Ferrer has really struggled for form since reaching the French Open Final and he has a number of surprise losses on his record since then.
It certainly isn't an easy match against Julien Benneteau who is coming off an impressive dismantling of Feliciano Lopez and the Frenchman has always enjoyed the indoor hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Benneteau has a surprisingly decent serve, although his second serve isn't as strong, and he can certainly play enough good tennis to break serve so Ferrer will have to be on his toes in this one. However, I do think that Ferrer is going to be able to earn a bit more from the longer rallies in this one.
I won't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I think Ferrer can come through with a 75, 64 win.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro is defending his title in Basel this week after a successful Asian swing and he has proven to be one of the best indoor players on the Tour over the last couple of years.
Just looking at his last twelve months will show he has titles in Basel, Vienna and Rotterdam, while he has also reached the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and Del Potro will certainly be tough to stop here this week.
Even with that in mind, I think Marcos Baghdatis could cause him some problems as he has in their past meetings and I like the Cypriot's chances to make this a competitive match despite a terrible 2013 season. I think Baghdatis causes problems for Del Potro because he is pretty strong off the ground and is willing to match what Del Potro brings to the court, although that is also why he hasn't been able to sustain that and actually beat the Argentinian player in their three matches this season.
There is every chance that Baghdatis can take a set in this one and that should put him in a position to cover the spread, although he will have to serve well too which can be an issue for him.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Na Li didn't return serve very well in her win over Sara Errani, but could book her place in the Semi Final with a win over Jelena Jankovic who is coming off an impressive win over Victoria Azarenka.
There is slightly less pressure on Jankovic which could make her a dangerous opponent, especially as she will face an injured Errani in her final match in the Group and the win over Azarenka puts the Serb in a strong spot.
I do think Li is the stronger player of the two, especially as Jankovic can be so erratic from day to day and she may also just relax a little too much off a big win as she had yesterday. The return game from Li will be the key in this one and she has to perform better in those positions than she did against Errani, but she had a lot of success against the Jankovic in the US Open that she can replicate here.
It will be close, but Li could come through 63, 76.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: It may be too late for Agnieszka Radwanska to qualify for the Semi Finals after losing her first two matches without winning a set, but she could have a small chance of going through if she wins this match impressively.
Radwanska has the game to make life very awkward for Angelique Kerber and the pressure is also on the German following her loss to Serena Williams in her opening match. Kerber does have decent ground strokes, but she is too often comfortable getting dragged into long rallies and you would have to back Radwanska to win the majority of those battles.
Both players will definitely feel more comfortable returning serve and they have split two matches over the last month, but I do think Radwanska's game is more reliable of the two. If Kerber serves particularly well, that could be a different story, while Radwanska dropping the first set may see her 'tank' the match, but I do believe the Pole is going to come through to give herself a small chance of progressing to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wednesday, 23 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 23rd)
It wasn't a fun Tuesday as the picks all seemed to decide to play like crap early and then try and turn things around... I was particularly disappointed with the early part of the Victoria Azarenka match as she had so many chances to take a commanding lead, but didn't really get going until she was 2-5 down in the set.
Hopefully Wednesday is a much better day as is the rest of the week.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Serena Williams started off a little slowly in her first match in Istanbul, but she still managed to run away with the match and I am expecting her to be too strong for Agnieszka Radwanska in this second match and book her place in the Semi Finals.
Radwanska lost her opening match last night and her game doesn't really trouble Serena as she doesn't have the power to really get the American moving side to side. If Serena has time to hit a ball, she is going to dictate the majority of points and the Radwanska serve doesn't set up too many short points either.
On the other hand, Williams will use her big serve to dominate rallies and it is no surprise that Radwanska has barely struggled to make matches competitive in the past when coming up against Serena.
The courts are playing a little slower from what I had seen yesterday, but Williams is playing too well to lose this match and I do expect another strong win.
Robin Haase v Vasek Pospisil: These two players met last week in Vienna and it was a fairly close match for the first couple of sets, although Robin Haase managed to pull away in the third set to take the win.
Both players will feel their game is suited to an indoor hard court as both have decent first serves, but both are also erratic off the ground. Vasek Pospisil will look to get to the net and put away volleys, but that also leaves him vulnerable to passing shots and I think the Canadian is going to struggle to consistently find winners at the net.
I don't particularly rate him when it comes to long, drawn out rallies from the back of the court, although I would be surprised if we see too many of those in this one. Robin Haase should be able to frank the win from last week as long as he isn't too tired from reaching the Final in Vienna where he came up a little short against Tommy Haas.
Kei Nishikori v Ivan Dodig: I actually quite like the way Ivan Dodig gets on with business on the court, but he can be a little erratic with his approach shots which can leave him in no man's land when he approaches the net.
He has a lot of good abilities with a strong serve and heavy groundies, while his doubles play has seen his volleys continue to improve, but a player like Kei Nishikori could give him fits as he makes him play one more shot.
Kei Nishikori should prove to be too strong over three sets in this one despite not having a huge shot in his arsenal, but I expect his consistency to grind down Dodig, although there will be a couple of close sets played. That means this match is likely going to come down to a couple of key points in each set and I think the Japanese player can come through those moments to win a close one.
Grigor Dimitrov v Radek Stepanek: It had been a tough couple of months for Grigor Dimitrov as the season was coming to a close, but he has recovered to win the tournament in Stockholm last week and may have the confidence to come through this match against Radek Stepanek.
It is tough to back up a winning week on the Tour as tiredness from travelling and a lot of tennis can catch up to players, but Dimitrov is definitely on the up while Stepanek's best performances are reserved for the Davis Cup or for doubles tournaments.
However, Stepanek has the ability to get under the skin of opponents and it may take Dimitrov a little while to get used to what he is seeing on the other side of the net. I think Stepanek will want the younger player to feel like he doesn't know what is coming next from him, but Dimitrov has played some big matches this year and should be able to handle the expectation.
It will likely be another close match, but I like Dimitrov to come through and get a step closer to the potential match up with Roger Federer later in the week.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Tommy Haas has given himself a little chance to get through to the World Tour Finals in London by winning the tournament in Vienna last week, but he still needs other players to lose early and himself to get close to winning the last two tournaments of the season if he is to sneak in.
That means he can't afford to take this match easy, although the veteran will also find it tough to back up the success of last week. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough player to get a handle on as he can play some sublime tennis, but then suddenly start exploding in a rash of errors from out of nowhere.
Kohlschreiber hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last six weeks though and I think that will work against him in this one and I do like Haas' chances of coming through in two tough sets.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Hopefully Wednesday is a much better day as is the rest of the week.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Serena Williams started off a little slowly in her first match in Istanbul, but she still managed to run away with the match and I am expecting her to be too strong for Agnieszka Radwanska in this second match and book her place in the Semi Finals.
Radwanska lost her opening match last night and her game doesn't really trouble Serena as she doesn't have the power to really get the American moving side to side. If Serena has time to hit a ball, she is going to dictate the majority of points and the Radwanska serve doesn't set up too many short points either.
On the other hand, Williams will use her big serve to dominate rallies and it is no surprise that Radwanska has barely struggled to make matches competitive in the past when coming up against Serena.
The courts are playing a little slower from what I had seen yesterday, but Williams is playing too well to lose this match and I do expect another strong win.
Robin Haase v Vasek Pospisil: These two players met last week in Vienna and it was a fairly close match for the first couple of sets, although Robin Haase managed to pull away in the third set to take the win.
Both players will feel their game is suited to an indoor hard court as both have decent first serves, but both are also erratic off the ground. Vasek Pospisil will look to get to the net and put away volleys, but that also leaves him vulnerable to passing shots and I think the Canadian is going to struggle to consistently find winners at the net.
I don't particularly rate him when it comes to long, drawn out rallies from the back of the court, although I would be surprised if we see too many of those in this one. Robin Haase should be able to frank the win from last week as long as he isn't too tired from reaching the Final in Vienna where he came up a little short against Tommy Haas.
Kei Nishikori v Ivan Dodig: I actually quite like the way Ivan Dodig gets on with business on the court, but he can be a little erratic with his approach shots which can leave him in no man's land when he approaches the net.
He has a lot of good abilities with a strong serve and heavy groundies, while his doubles play has seen his volleys continue to improve, but a player like Kei Nishikori could give him fits as he makes him play one more shot.
Kei Nishikori should prove to be too strong over three sets in this one despite not having a huge shot in his arsenal, but I expect his consistency to grind down Dodig, although there will be a couple of close sets played. That means this match is likely going to come down to a couple of key points in each set and I think the Japanese player can come through those moments to win a close one.
Grigor Dimitrov v Radek Stepanek: It had been a tough couple of months for Grigor Dimitrov as the season was coming to a close, but he has recovered to win the tournament in Stockholm last week and may have the confidence to come through this match against Radek Stepanek.
It is tough to back up a winning week on the Tour as tiredness from travelling and a lot of tennis can catch up to players, but Dimitrov is definitely on the up while Stepanek's best performances are reserved for the Davis Cup or for doubles tournaments.
However, Stepanek has the ability to get under the skin of opponents and it may take Dimitrov a little while to get used to what he is seeing on the other side of the net. I think Stepanek will want the younger player to feel like he doesn't know what is coming next from him, but Dimitrov has played some big matches this year and should be able to handle the expectation.
It will likely be another close match, but I like Dimitrov to come through and get a step closer to the potential match up with Roger Federer later in the week.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Tommy Haas has given himself a little chance to get through to the World Tour Finals in London by winning the tournament in Vienna last week, but he still needs other players to lose early and himself to get close to winning the last two tournaments of the season if he is to sneak in.
That means he can't afford to take this match easy, although the veteran will also find it tough to back up the success of last week. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough player to get a handle on as he can play some sublime tennis, but then suddenly start exploding in a rash of errors from out of nowhere.
Kohlschreiber hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last six weeks though and I think that will work against him in this one and I do like Haas' chances of coming through in two tough sets.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tuesday, 22 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 22nd)
This is the final week of the season for those players on the WTA Tour as the End of Year Championships begin in Istanbul on Tuesday, while the ATP Tour has reached the last exciting two weeks of the season where players try and book a place at the World Tour Finals.
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Saturday, 10 November 2012
ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks (November 10th)
I do understand the need of the television companies to tell us how 'good' this round robin stage of the tournament is, but they must thing the fans are complete and utter morons with that drivel... Let's face facts for a minute- my memory isn't what it was, but how long ago was it that the round robin was trialed in the smaller ATP tournaments and quickly removed.
The bottom line is that players can effectively tank matches at certain stages and we did elements of that in both matches last night. Don't get me wrong, both favourites won easily enough, but there is no doubt that both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray had reduced energy levels in the second set of their matches one qualification to the Semi Finals was assured.
In a regular tournament, you can't decide to coast through matches if you are to get through and win a tournament so the round robin is a bit of a nonentity.
For this tournament, I accept this is the best way of using the top 8 players, but it isn't a good method that needs to be used ever again on the main tour outside of this World Tour Finals.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Roger Federer: After Roger Federer beat David Ferrer in straight sets and Juan Martin Del Potro did the same against David Ferrer, it meant the World Number 2 had booked his Semi Final place and now it is a matter of whether he would prefer playing Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray.
Federer does have a chance of 'picking' his opponent as a defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro will mean Federer finishes second in the Group, while a win sees him knock out the Argentine if David Ferrer beats Janko Tipsarevic.
It might not be in Federer's hands anyway as Del Potro has certainly got closer and closer to beating him all season before eventually cracking that in Basle last month.
Del Potro should have beaten Federer at both the French Open and the London Olympics also and I think his motivation is much higher than Federer's in this particular match, even if the World Number 2 would likely want to see the Argentine out of the tournament as he is a major threat.
However, it may also work for Federer who certainly feels he has the beating of Djokovic, perhaps even more than Murray, and would be rewarded with a Semi Final against the World Number 1 if he fails to win this match. With all this added intrigue in mind, backing the Argenitne at big odds looks the call.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: This could be a meaningless match if Juan Martin Del Potro has beaten Roger Federer earlier in the day, but David Ferrer will still want to maintain some form ahead of the Davis Cup Final next weekend against the Czech Republic.
Janko Tipsarevic has just been happy to get through an hour on court in each match he has played and he has looked far short of his best form as an illness and a long season has taken its toll on the Serb.
Ferrer has had the better of the matches they have played and I just think he will be a little too strong here and will likely get through with a 6-4, 6-2 win, although I am only having a small interest as it is potentially a meaningless match.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 5.30 Units (19 Units Staked)
The bottom line is that players can effectively tank matches at certain stages and we did elements of that in both matches last night. Don't get me wrong, both favourites won easily enough, but there is no doubt that both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray had reduced energy levels in the second set of their matches one qualification to the Semi Finals was assured.
In a regular tournament, you can't decide to coast through matches if you are to get through and win a tournament so the round robin is a bit of a nonentity.
For this tournament, I accept this is the best way of using the top 8 players, but it isn't a good method that needs to be used ever again on the main tour outside of this World Tour Finals.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Roger Federer: After Roger Federer beat David Ferrer in straight sets and Juan Martin Del Potro did the same against David Ferrer, it meant the World Number 2 had booked his Semi Final place and now it is a matter of whether he would prefer playing Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray.
Federer does have a chance of 'picking' his opponent as a defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro will mean Federer finishes second in the Group, while a win sees him knock out the Argentine if David Ferrer beats Janko Tipsarevic.
It might not be in Federer's hands anyway as Del Potro has certainly got closer and closer to beating him all season before eventually cracking that in Basle last month.
Del Potro should have beaten Federer at both the French Open and the London Olympics also and I think his motivation is much higher than Federer's in this particular match, even if the World Number 2 would likely want to see the Argentine out of the tournament as he is a major threat.
However, it may also work for Federer who certainly feels he has the beating of Djokovic, perhaps even more than Murray, and would be rewarded with a Semi Final against the World Number 1 if he fails to win this match. With all this added intrigue in mind, backing the Argenitne at big odds looks the call.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: This could be a meaningless match if Juan Martin Del Potro has beaten Roger Federer earlier in the day, but David Ferrer will still want to maintain some form ahead of the Davis Cup Final next weekend against the Czech Republic.
Janko Tipsarevic has just been happy to get through an hour on court in each match he has played and he has looked far short of his best form as an illness and a long season has taken its toll on the Serb.
Ferrer has had the better of the matches they have played and I just think he will be a little too strong here and will likely get through with a 6-4, 6-2 win, although I am only having a small interest as it is potentially a meaningless match.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 5.30 Units (19 Units Staked)
Friday, 9 November 2012
ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks (November 9th)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The final round robin matches at this tournament can be hard to read as motivations of the players can be questioned, but this is not one of those matches as neither player is through to the Semi Final just yet.
I wondered about Novak Djokovic's mentality for this tournament as he has much bigger concerns with his father's health being the foremost thing in his mind, but it clear that he is very much here to win the tournament with the way he played against Andy Murray in the second game in the Group.
That means Djokovic is the only player with 2 wins to his name, but there are some crazy permutations that could potentially see him knocked out of the tournament, although it would take a straight sets defeat to put him in trouble.
Berdych has played a couple of solid games in the tournament, but Djokovic does have his number more than most players with a 10-1 record against the big serving Czech, and 6 of those wins have come since the beginning of 2011.
If anyone saw the Berdych match with Andy Murray, they would have noticed that he did offer the British Number 1 a few chances to break serve and I think the slower conditions here will favour Djokovic to create some chances in the match too. However, he looks capable of taking those chances and I'll back him to win this with maybe a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Talking about motivation, it is hard to guess what the motivation of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be now that he is very close to going out of the tournament, although he would have a sneaky chance of getting through if Berdych loses the earlier match and if Tsonga can beat Andy Murray handily.
Even without massive incentive, Tsonga is an entertainer and he will be happy to see an opportunity to perform against the home player here and the lack of pressure on his shoulders may make him a very dangerous opponent for Murray in this match.
They have played some really close matches in the past, but also some easy wins for Andy Murray so I'll only have a small interest in this one. Personally, I believe that Tsonga can at least push one set very close and he would be in a very strong position if he can sneak a set.
Murray can still sometimes lose serve at inopportune times and he will have a lot more pressure on his back in this one, pressure that may see him come through a tight, tough encounter.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 4.10 Units (16 Units Staked)
I wondered about Novak Djokovic's mentality for this tournament as he has much bigger concerns with his father's health being the foremost thing in his mind, but it clear that he is very much here to win the tournament with the way he played against Andy Murray in the second game in the Group.
That means Djokovic is the only player with 2 wins to his name, but there are some crazy permutations that could potentially see him knocked out of the tournament, although it would take a straight sets defeat to put him in trouble.
Berdych has played a couple of solid games in the tournament, but Djokovic does have his number more than most players with a 10-1 record against the big serving Czech, and 6 of those wins have come since the beginning of 2011.
If anyone saw the Berdych match with Andy Murray, they would have noticed that he did offer the British Number 1 a few chances to break serve and I think the slower conditions here will favour Djokovic to create some chances in the match too. However, he looks capable of taking those chances and I'll back him to win this with maybe a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Talking about motivation, it is hard to guess what the motivation of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be now that he is very close to going out of the tournament, although he would have a sneaky chance of getting through if Berdych loses the earlier match and if Tsonga can beat Andy Murray handily.
Even without massive incentive, Tsonga is an entertainer and he will be happy to see an opportunity to perform against the home player here and the lack of pressure on his shoulders may make him a very dangerous opponent for Murray in this match.
They have played some really close matches in the past, but also some easy wins for Andy Murray so I'll only have a small interest in this one. Personally, I believe that Tsonga can at least push one set very close and he would be in a very strong position if he can sneak a set.
Murray can still sometimes lose serve at inopportune times and he will have a lot more pressure on his back in this one, pressure that may see him come through a tight, tough encounter.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 4.10 Units (16 Units Staked)
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