ATP World Tour Finals Final Pick 2012 (November 12th)

Aside from the Davis Cup, this is the last tennis match of the season of real importance as only Challenger Events will be taking place this week.

It seems fitting that the top two Men's players in the World will end the season playing for the ATP World Tour Finals Trophy.

Both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer played some very good tennis yesterday in the Semi Finals and it does look like a fascinating match on Monday night.


Roger Federer v Novak Djokovic: I'll admit it- I thought Roger Federer was there for the taking on Sunday evening when he played Andy Murray, but I was wrong as he looked very good for the most part and outplayed Murray after recovering from an early break of serve.

I still believe that Federer fancies his chances against Novak Djokovic more than any other player in the top 4 and I think it remains the case that Federer is the best indoor player in the World.

Djokovic does show plenty of character in his matches and he back to doing the same on Sunday as he came from a set and a break down against Juan Martin Del Potro before moving through the gears to win that match.

However, I can't help feeling that Djokovic was there for the taking yesterday and I think Federer will feel good about his chances having won the last 2 matches against Djokovic.

Federer is also 3-1 against Djokovic on an indoor hard court, including a straight sets win here in London two seasons ago in the Semi Final on that occasion.

This might be close, but the odds on Federer look to be a joke and I'll back him to win this tournament for the third straight year in a row.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 9-5, + 8.74 Units (25 Units Staked)

ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final Picks (November 11th)

Remembering all those who gave their lives for the benefit of freedom (11/11 11am)


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: This should be a fascinating first Semi Final, but I think Novak Djokovic is playing a little too solid at the moment to be beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro, especially considering the Serb has won the last 5 sets they have competed since the Olympic Games.

The courts here are playing just slow enough to think Djokovic will get enough returns in play and I think he is a little more solid on both wings than the big man and I expect him to win more of the extended rallies.

Del Potro certainly has the ability to take a racquet out of an opponents hands, but the lack of rest since beating Roger Federer in 3 sets means there is more in favour of Djokovic in this one.

The Serb would have covered this spread in the last 2 matches between the players and I'll look for him to make Monday's Final in impressive style, possibly coming through 6-2, 6-4.


Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Roger Federer: Anyone who followed the outright selection earlier in the week may want to hold off on this one as they already have Andy Murray to win the tournament, but I think the layers are over-estimating Roger Federer in the match.

Murray has won the last 5 sets they have competed including that absolute hammering at the Olympic Games and he is playing much better tennis at the moment in my opinion.

To be perfectly honest, Federer has looked a little flat this week and very ratty- he destroyed Janko Tipsarevic who was playing far below his best, but struggled against David Ferrer and was beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro and I have an inkling that the last 12 months of full tennis has caught up with him and he could do with a break.

Federer has put a lot in to the game in that time to make sure he recovered the Number 1 Ranking in the World and the amount of tennis he has played is tough for a 31 year old, especially with the level of competition and the fact he has reached the latter stages in most events in that time.

I just feel he is ready to recharge the batteries and Murray will be able to put enough pressure on his serve to get through to the Final and possibly a repeat of his second match at this tournament against Novak Djokovic.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 8-4, + 8.40 Units (21 Units Staked)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks (November 10th)

I do understand the need of the television companies to tell us how 'good' this round robin stage of the tournament is, but they must thing the fans are complete and utter morons with that drivel... Let's face facts for a minute- my memory isn't what it was, but how long ago was it that the round robin was trialed in the smaller ATP tournaments and quickly removed.

The bottom line is that players can effectively tank matches at certain stages and we did elements of that in both matches last night. Don't get me wrong, both favourites won easily enough, but there is no doubt that both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray had reduced energy levels in the second set of their matches one qualification to the Semi Finals was assured.

In a regular tournament, you can't decide to coast through matches if you are to get through and win a tournament so the round robin is a bit of a nonentity.

For this tournament, I accept this is the best way of using the top 8 players, but it isn't a good method that needs to be used ever again on the main tour outside of this World Tour Finals.


Juan Martin Del Potro v Roger Federer: After Roger Federer beat David Ferrer in straight sets and Juan Martin Del Potro did the same against David Ferrer, it meant the World Number 2 had booked his Semi Final place and now it is a matter of whether he would prefer playing Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray.

Federer does have a chance of 'picking' his opponent as a defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro will mean Federer finishes second in the Group, while a win sees him knock out the Argentine if David Ferrer beats Janko Tipsarevic.

It might not be in Federer's hands anyway as Del Potro has certainly got closer and closer to beating him all season before eventually cracking that in Basle last month.

Del Potro should have beaten Federer at both the French Open and the London Olympics also and I think his motivation is much higher than Federer's in this particular match, even if the World Number 2 would likely want to see the Argentine out of the tournament as he is a major threat.

However, it may also work for Federer who certainly feels he has the beating of Djokovic, perhaps even more than Murray, and would be rewarded with a Semi Final against the World Number 1 if he fails to win this match. With all this added intrigue in mind, backing the Argenitne at big odds looks the call.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: This could be a meaningless match if Juan Martin Del Potro has beaten Roger Federer earlier in the day, but David Ferrer will still want to maintain some form ahead of the Davis Cup Final next weekend against the Czech Republic.

Janko Tipsarevic has just been happy to get through an hour on court in each match he has played and he has looked far short of his best form as an illness and a long season has taken its toll on the Serb.

Ferrer has had the better of the matches they have played and I just think he will be a little too strong here and will likely get through with a 6-4, 6-2 win, although I am only having a small interest as it is potentially a meaningless match.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 5.30 Units (19 Units Staked)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks (November 9th)

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The final round robin matches at this tournament can be hard to read as motivations of the players can be questioned, but this is not one of those matches as neither player is through to the Semi Final just yet.

I wondered about Novak Djokovic's mentality for this tournament as he has much bigger concerns with his father's health being the foremost thing in his mind, but it clear that he is very much here to win the tournament with the way he played against Andy Murray in the second game in the Group.

That means Djokovic is the only player with 2 wins to his name, but there are some crazy permutations that could potentially see him knocked out of the tournament, although it would take a straight sets defeat to put him in trouble.

Berdych has played a couple of solid games in the tournament, but Djokovic does have his number more than most players with a 10-1 record against the big serving Czech, and 6 of those wins have come since the beginning of 2011.

If anyone saw the Berdych match with Andy Murray, they would have noticed that he did offer the British Number 1 a few chances to break serve and I think the slower conditions here will favour Djokovic to create some chances in the match too. However, he looks capable of taking those chances and I'll back him to win this with maybe a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Talking about motivation, it is hard to guess what the motivation of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be now that he is very close to going out of the tournament, although he would have a sneaky chance of getting through if Berdych loses the earlier match and if Tsonga can beat Andy Murray handily.

Even without massive incentive, Tsonga is an entertainer and he will be happy to see an opportunity to perform against the home player here and the lack of pressure on his shoulders may make him a very dangerous opponent for Murray in this match.

They have played some really close matches in the past, but also some easy wins for Andy Murray so I'll only have a small interest in this one. Personally, I believe that Tsonga can at least push one set very close and he would be in a very strong position if he can sneak a set.

Murray can still sometimes lose serve at inopportune times and he will have a lot more pressure on his back in this one, pressure that may see him come through a tight, tough encounter.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 4.10 Units (16 Units Staked)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks (November 8th 2012)

The Andy Murray-Novak Djokovic match was a titanic battle as expected on Wednesday afternoon and I think Murray will feel a little aggrieved that he didn't make it through to the Semi Final with a win, although I was very impressed with the way Djokovic played in the latter two sets to get the job done.

Both of these players are well matched and the winner is only decided by one or two points either way and I think we can look forward to plenty more big matches between them over the next 12 months, perhaps even meeting one more time in this tournament.

The one element of the scheduling of this tournament that must gripe with the fans that bought the tickets is the fact that the 'best' players have been put on the day session, while the evening session has the 'other' match, especially when it comes to the singles matches.

The night sessions have actually been sold out for some time now unless you are willing to pay the glorified tout service provided by Viagogo... The day sessions haven't been sold unless you are talking about the weekend matches, which is understandable with work being a priority for a lot of folks in London.

However, Andy Murray has been scheduled for both day sessions so far this week as has Roger Federer and it is clear that the organisers are just trying to ensure all their sessions sell well, and not leaving it to chance. Even both 'winners' matches in the second of the Group games have been placed in the day session spot and I don't think I would be too impressed if I had purchased the evening sessions as you would have expected the big guns to be playing.

I'm not saying that the evening session viewers haven't been entertained- I just don't think people bought their tickets in the belief that the likes of Murray and Federer would not be scheduled to play at 'prime time'.

The picks went 1-1 again yesterday after Murray fell short in knocking off Djokovic, but Tomas Berdych won his match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and managed to cover the handicap. That keeps  the profit strong for the week so far, although my outright pick on Murray is under a bit of pressure as he needs to beat Tsonga on Friday and hope Djokovic can beat Berdych, else there are a lot of permutations to go through.

Roger Federer - 4.5 games v David Ferrer: What can you say about this match up but Roger Federer owns David Ferrer with wins in all 14 previous meetings and only dropping 3 sets in all those matches.

I really appreciate Ferrer and he was being remarkably candid when suggesting that Federer is just better in most aspects and that is why he has failed to put a mark on him in their meetings. He has also admitted that is suffering from a little bit of fatigue and that could show up at some point, especially as he can afford to 'rest' in this match and concentrate on beating Janko Tipsarevic to book his place in the last four.

Federer already looked imperious against a tired looking Tipsarevic in the first game of the Group and would put himself in a very strong position if he can win this match in straight sets. He has beaten Ferrer in each of the last two seasons here in London without dropping a set and being fairly comfortable in those matches.

I have a feeling this won't be much different and I'll look for the World Number 2 to come through in a straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 win.

Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: I am not even sure if Janko Tipsarevic will take the court for this one, although it is commendable that he has been speaking about 'owing' the fans and wanting to get out there and give them what they have paid for.

His time, however, may be coming to an end in London and I think this is a very tough match up for him against Juan Martin Del Potro who has beaten him on all 3 previous occasions they have played one another and has never dropped a set to the Serb.

Del Potro knows he needs to win this one as quickly as possible to give himself a fighting chance of making it through to the Semi Finals and I think that his opponent is struggling far too much at the moment to really give himself a fighting chance.

Hopefully the Argentine can serve first in this one as I think it could then be a fairly routine 6-3, 6-4 win for him in this one.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks (November 7th 2012)

Yesterday proved to be a solid day for the picks as both came up trumps after Roger Federer beat Janko Tipsarevic with a lot more room to spare and David Ferrer then followed that up with an impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro.

Both Federer and Ferrer will feel they can qualify from this Group following their wins, although Ferrer is likely going to have to win his final match in straight sets to give himself an opportunity without looking over his shoulder at what Del Potro is doing in his match.

Now we focus back to Group A:


Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic: This is a battle between the two winners from the opening day of the tournament and I think it could be another close one, but I favour Andy Murray to come through as the underdog.

The sad news is that Djokovic's father has not been well in recent weeks and that has obviously led to Djokovic being less focused and I think it will be tough for him against an opponent like Murray who is fully motivated to end the season on a high in front of his home support.

Murray had match points against Djokovic in Shanghai in their latest meeting, but it was the Serb that came up trumps leaving their season series tied at 3-3.

The matches have been close and it is very little that separates the players, but the key aspect to note is that Murray could easily have been 5-1 as he blew the match points in Shanghai and was leading 2-1 in sets in Australia before losing that Semi Final. As I said, this is likely to be another close one, but I just think that Djokovic is understandably in a tough place mentally and Murray should give you a run for your money at odds against.


Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I was very close to leaving this match alone after considering how close the Final they played against one another was in Stockholm recently, but I just think there is enough motivation for Tomas Berdych for him to win the match and put Jo-Wilfried Tsonga out of the tournament.

Tsonga is probably already looking ahead to the 2013 season when he is hoping to progress further and start giving the top players more tests than he has with consistency this season. His straight sets loss to Novak Djokovic makes qualification for the Semi Finals tough a year after he made the Final here in London.

He actually beat Berdych in the Semi Final last year, but has lost both meetings against the Czech player this season and I think it will be tough for Tsonga in the slightly slow conditions we have seen so far.

Berdych has also been in the better form of the two players and he looks like he could set up a potential 'winner takes all' clash with Novak Djokovic on Friday.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 3-1, + 4.30 Units (8 Units Staked)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 2 Picks

It was an interesting Day 1 from the World Tour Finals, although I will be the first to admit that I haven't seen both matches in full just yet but had been following the scores.

The problem is that I am working during the early afternoon game (although hoping to catch one of the day session matches later in the week) and today was just unfortunate that I finished a little late tonight so only saw the latter stages of the later match.

The one thing I did notice in my short time of watching the tennis was that the court is playing plenty slow at the moment and I think that may favour the two players from Group A, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, over Roger Federer.

I guess we'll know more as the tournament progresses, but Murray and Djokovic both winning is huge for them and puts both in a huge position to qualify. Djokovic winning in straight sets means there is a little less pressure on him when he faces Murray on Wednesday, although neither player will be too concerned about their prospects of getting through to the Semi Final after the opening day performances.


The picks actually went 1-1 yesterday, although it was a little unlucky that Andy Murray couldn't cover considering he had Tomas Berdych in a heap of trouble in the first set, but couldn't get the breakthrough and eventually lost that set 6-3... He also had a slight chance to get the double-break in one of the last two sets but made a couple of mental errors, although showed his character to win the match.

The second pick went almost exactly to plan as Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played a tight first set which was decided on the tie-breaker before the Serb took control and earned a double break of serve in the second set. Fortunately that didn't happen until the total games was in the bag.


Day 2 Picks
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: While Roger Federer didn't play in Paris, Janko Tipsarevic did and it has to be a worry for his fans that he has been speaking about the possibility of withdrawing from this tournament.

The Serb Number 2 has admitted that he will give this a good go, but any player that is already thinking he won't complete a tournament cannot be a good sign, especially as he faces a player that he has been beaten by on all 5 occasions they have met on the Tour.

Federer has actually won 9 sets in a row against Tipsarevic since being 2-1 down in sets at the Australian Open in 2008 and he should be too strong for him again in this one. The last 7 sets has only seen 2 get to 6-4 and I think the mental checking out process for Tipsy could begin in this one so I like Federer to get off to a 6-3, 6-3 start.


David Ferrer v Juan Martin Del Potro: This is a match between two players that have been in very good form at the end of the season- David Ferrer won in Valencia and Paris back to back, while Juan Martin Del Potro won tournaments in Vienna and Basel before being beaten early in Paris last week.

Ferrer does pose a nightmare problem for Del Potro as he has the ability to retrieve balls all day and the court is playing slow enough to think the Argentine may be frustrated yet again by the Spaniard in this one.

I said in my outright preview that I think Ferrer can get out of this Group, but that means he has to win this game and extend his 5-2 head to head record against Del Potro. Ferrer has won both meetings against Del Potro this season, winning all 5 sets they have competed against one another and none of those have got closer than 6-3.

Tiredness may eventually take its toll on Ferrer, but he has had a couple of days rest and never seems to be too bothered on a tennis court and I think he can take the surprise win in this one.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer @ 2.38 Coral (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 1-1, - 0.16 Units (4 Units Staked)

ATP World Tour Finals Outright and Day 1 Picks

And just like that, we come to the end of the 2012 ATP tennis season!

It just seems to be that it was only yesterday that Andy Murray was winning his first Grand Slam of his career at the US Open, but that is almost 2 months ago now.

I usually shut down my picks after the US Open and wait until this tournament as there seems to be too much disinterest from the leading players and it's almost like you are second guessing yourself to try and figure out motivations of the top players.

That 'lack of motivation' and players resting little injuries means the tournaments in Shanghai and particularly Paris, two Masters events, are heavily affected by withdrawals and there are real suggestions that the Calender will be revamped.

Paris really struggled last week as Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer were out before the tournament started, while both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray exited the tournament early and it was no surprise really that the organisers are discussing a way of bringing this tournament to early in the season, maybe even opening the indoor tournaments in early February/March just ahead of the events at Indian Wells and Miami.


Back to focusing on this tournament: With Rafael Nadal out for the season (as I predicted way back before the London Olympics), it means Janko Tipsarevic was able to sneak into the event although he was forced into retirement last week as he was suffering from 'fatigue'.

The two groups have been drawn and both have some really interesting match ups, but I am not sure how many surprises we will see at the Semi Final stage.


The form player is Andy Murray as far as I am concerned as he has reached match points in his last three defeats since winning the US Open and should really have added the Shanghai Masters to his title list this season when falling short against Novak Djokovic in the Final of that event.

Speaking about Djokovic, the Serb is going to finish World Number 1 regardless of what happens at this tournament and he has also been placed in the same Group as Murray. His fans would argue that he is the man to beat as he won back to back tournaments following the loss in the US Open Final before his early defeat in Paris.

Both of these players will feel confident of progressing from this Group although it is made up by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych.

Tsonga is going to be working with Roger Rasheed going forward as he finally decided he does need a Coach if he is going to progress through to the next level and he may not see the best of that partnership until the New Year. Tsonga has a poor recent record against both Murray and Djokovic, although the conditions should favour his game with the big serve and heavy groundstrokes being able to fly through the court. However, he has played a lot of tennis in recent weeks and may not have the energy against the other 3 tough players he will face.

Berdych has played well with a tournament win at Stockholm under his belt since the US Open, but he has mentally struggled against both Djokovic and Murray and I just think that is what will give the big two players in this Group the chance to progress.


The second Group doesn't have as many of the names, but don't expect David Ferrer to make it easy for either Roger Federer or Juan Martin Del Potro in this section.

Janko Tipsarevic is a good player, but he is just 1-11 against the other 3 players in the Group and I think another long, but successful season, will be too much to overcome and I don't see him winning any of his 3 matches and thus won't qualify.

Roger Federer clearly enjoys playing indoors the most at the moment and has a 14-0 record against Ferrer and has been a little too good for Del Potro for the most part this season (did lose his last match against the Argentine in Basel no less).

The key match as far as qualification goes is the David Ferrer-Juan Martin Del Potro match and it will be interesting to see how Ferrer will respond to the amount of tennis he has played recently. The Spaniard has won tournaments in Valencia and Paris in back to back weeks and he has been too good for Del Potro this season so I do think he may surprise and finish in the position behind Federer in this one.


I expect both the players from Group A to be able to win their Semi Finals as I think there is a real chance that Andy Murray is the player that will meet Roger Federer and there is no doubt that the British Number 1 has found a chink in the armoury of the Swiss man's serve.

Picking a winner at this event can be tough, and this tournament looks more open than previous editions if I am honest, but I do think Murray is the man to follow.

He had to retire from the event last season after just one match in the Group and I think he will be fully motivated to put a big performance in front of the home support he will receive.

It will also be a big marker for him to show the rest of the field that he is hungry to add to his maiden Grand Slam win at the next tournament in Australia which is a around 9-10 weeks away and he looks the best pick here at 3.60 being offered at BoyleSports.

I don't want to disrespect Roger Federer who loves playing indoors and has a stellar record at the End of Year Championships, but he has played a lot of tennis in the last year and he definitely has to go back to the drawing board if he faces Murray and that is why I am holding off.


Day 1 Picks
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Before this season, Tomas Berdych had a solid record against Andy Murray, but the British Number 1 is beginning to find it a little more comfortable going up against the big serving Czech player.

Murray has been returning serve exceptionally in his recent matches and I think that is what will make the difference for him in this opening match.

As I said above, Murray also has to make up for his retirement last season at this event and I think he comes out with a big performance in this one.

Berdych did reach the Semi Final here last season and is clearly a very solid indoor player with the attributes he has, but I think his big weapon, the serve, may just get nullified and Murray winning 7-6, 6-3 will do for me here.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Novak Djokovic Over 21.5 Games: There is every chance one of the first two sets is going to run into a tie-break as both of these players are capable of being very effective behind serve.

I also think this is the one match up that Tsonga really likes against the players in the top 4 in the World Rankings and that should see him at least play the game tough throughout and not lose heart even if he falls behind a set.

Djokovic has won 5 sets in a row against Tsonga, but I'll be looking for the Frenchman to hopefully break that streak and perhaps even force this into 3 sets.


MY OUTRIGHT PICK: Andy Murray @ 3.60 BoyleSports (1 Unit)


DAY 1 PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Novak Djokovic Over 21.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)