Tennis Picks 2013 (October 24th)

It has truly been a terrible week when it comes to the tennis picks being made, but those have mainly been my own fault with some poor decisions made on my part. Sometimes you can look at bad luck, but this has not been one of those weeks as I have picked some poor matches and players haven't even been in matches that they have lost.

Anyway, hopefully Thursday will prove to be a better day for the picks going forward.


David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I think 2014 will see David Ferrer begin to drop rapidly down the World Rankings, especially the early part of the season when he has a lot of points to defend, while he has to do more of the same in the next couple of weeks.

Twelve months ago, Ferrer won the tournament in Valencia and followed that up with his first Masters win in Paris, and he got off to a decent start with a win over Gael Monfils yesterday. That will give him some confidence after Ferrer has really struggled for form since reaching the French Open Final and he has a number of surprise losses on his record since then.

It certainly isn't an easy match against Julien Benneteau who is coming off an impressive dismantling of Feliciano Lopez and the Frenchman has always enjoyed the indoor hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent.

Benneteau has a surprisingly decent serve, although his second serve isn't as strong, and he can certainly play enough good tennis to break serve so Ferrer will have to be on his toes in this one.  However, I do think that Ferrer is going to be able to earn a bit more from the longer rallies in this one.

I won't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I think Ferrer can come through with a 75, 64 win.


Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro is defending his title in Basel this week after a successful Asian swing and he has proven to be one of the best indoor players on the Tour over the last couple of years.

Just looking at his last twelve months will show he has titles in Basel, Vienna and Rotterdam, while he has also reached the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and Del Potro will certainly be tough to stop here this week.

Even with that in mind, I think Marcos Baghdatis could cause him some problems as he has in their past meetings and I like the Cypriot's chances to make this a competitive match despite a terrible 2013 season. I think Baghdatis causes problems for Del Potro because he is pretty strong off the ground and is willing to match what Del Potro brings to the court, although that is also why he hasn't been able to sustain that and actually beat the Argentinian player in their three matches this season.

There is every chance that Baghdatis can take a set in this one and that should put him in a position to cover the spread, although he will have to serve well too which can be an issue for him.


Na Li - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Na Li didn't return serve very well in her win over Sara Errani, but could book her place in the Semi Final with a win over Jelena Jankovic who is coming off an impressive win over Victoria Azarenka.

There is slightly less pressure on Jankovic which could make her a dangerous opponent, especially as she will face an injured Errani in her final match in the Group and the win over Azarenka puts the Serb in a strong spot.

I do think Li is the stronger player of the two, especially as Jankovic can be so erratic from day to day and she may also just relax a little too much off a big win as she had yesterday. The return game from Li will be the key in this one and she has to perform better in those positions than she did against Errani, but she had a lot of success against the Jankovic in the US Open that she can replicate here.

It will be close, but Li could come through 63, 76.


Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: It may be too late for Agnieszka Radwanska to qualify for the Semi Finals after losing her first two matches without winning a set, but she could have a small chance of going through if she wins this match impressively.

Radwanska has the game to make life very awkward for Angelique Kerber and the pressure is also on the German following her loss to Serena Williams in her opening match. Kerber does have decent ground strokes, but she is too often comfortable getting dragged into long rallies and you would have to back Radwanska to win the majority of those battles.

Both players will definitely feel more comfortable returning serve and they have split two matches over the last month, but I do think Radwanska's game is more reliable of the two. If Kerber serves particularly well, that could be a different story, while Radwanska dropping the first set may see her 'tank' the match, but I do believe the Pole is going to come through to give herself a small chance of progressing to the Semi Finals.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2013 (October 23rd)

It wasn't a fun Tuesday as the picks all seemed to decide to play like crap early and then try and turn things around... I was particularly disappointed with the early part of the Victoria Azarenka match as she had so many chances to take a commanding lead, but didn't really get going until she was 2-5 down in the set.

Hopefully Wednesday is a much better day as is the rest of the week.


Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Serena Williams started off a little slowly in her first match in Istanbul, but she still managed to run away with the match and I am expecting her to be too strong for Agnieszka Radwanska in this second match and book her place in the Semi Finals.

Radwanska lost her opening match last night and her game doesn't really trouble Serena as she doesn't have the power to really get the American moving side to side. If Serena has time to hit a ball, she is going to dictate the majority of points and the Radwanska serve doesn't set up too many short points either.

On the other hand, Williams will use her big serve to dominate rallies and it is no surprise that Radwanska has barely struggled to make matches competitive in the past when coming up against Serena.

The courts are playing a little slower from what I had seen yesterday, but Williams is playing too well to lose this match and I do expect another strong win.


Robin Haase v Vasek Pospisil: These two players met last week in Vienna and it was a fairly close match for the first couple of sets, although Robin Haase managed to pull away in the third set to take the win.

Both players will feel their game is suited to an indoor hard court as both have decent first serves, but both are also erratic off the ground. Vasek Pospisil will look to get to the net and put away volleys, but that also leaves him vulnerable to passing shots and I think the Canadian is going to struggle to consistently find winners at the net.

I don't particularly rate him when it comes to long, drawn out rallies from the back of the court, although I would be surprised if we see too many of those in this one. Robin Haase should be able to frank the win from last week as long as he isn't too tired from reaching the Final in Vienna where he came up a little short against Tommy Haas.


Kei Nishikori v Ivan Dodig: I actually quite like the way Ivan Dodig gets on with business on the court, but he can be a little erratic with his approach shots which can leave him in no man's land when he approaches the net.

He has a lot of good abilities with a strong serve and heavy groundies, while his doubles play has seen his volleys continue to improve, but a player like Kei Nishikori could give him fits as he makes him play one more shot.

Kei Nishikori should prove to be too strong over three sets in this one despite not having a huge shot in his arsenal, but I expect his consistency to grind down Dodig, although there will be a couple of close sets played. That means this match is likely going to come down to a couple of key points in each set and I think the Japanese player can come through those moments to win a close one.


Grigor Dimitrov v Radek Stepanek: It had been a tough couple of months for Grigor Dimitrov as the season was coming to a close, but he has recovered to win the tournament in Stockholm last week and may have the confidence to come through this match against Radek Stepanek.

It is tough to back up a winning week on the Tour as tiredness from travelling and a lot of tennis can catch up to players, but Dimitrov is definitely on the up while Stepanek's best performances are reserved for the Davis Cup or for doubles tournaments.

However, Stepanek has the ability to get under the skin of opponents and it may take Dimitrov a little while to get used to what he is seeing on the other side of the net. I think Stepanek will want the younger player to feel like he doesn't know what is coming next from him, but Dimitrov has played some big matches this year and should be able to handle the expectation.

It will likely be another close match, but I like Dimitrov to come through and get a step closer to the potential match up with Roger Federer later in the week.


Tommy Haas - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Tommy Haas has given himself a little chance to get through to the World Tour Finals in London by winning the tournament in Vienna last week, but he still needs other players to lose early and himself to get close to winning the last two tournaments of the season if he is to sneak in.

That means he can't afford to take this match easy, although the veteran will also find it tough to back up the success of last week. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough player to get a handle on as he can play some sublime tennis, but then suddenly start exploding in a rash of errors from out of nowhere.

Kohlschreiber hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last six weeks though and I think that will work against him in this one and I do like Haas' chances of coming through in two tough sets.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (October 22nd)

This is the final week of the season for those players on the WTA Tour as the End of Year Championships begin in Istanbul on Tuesday, while the ATP Tour has reached the last exciting two weeks of the season where players try and book a place at the World Tour Finals.

It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.

Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.


Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.

The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.


Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.

Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.

The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.

Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.

However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.

Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.

They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.


Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.

There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.

You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.

Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.

The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.

Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.

He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.


Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.

It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.

Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.

Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.

MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)