I can only say it was more frustration on Wednesday as players got into strong positions only to let me down in unexpected fashion. Leonardo Mayer had a break advantage in the final set of his match with Teymuraz Gabashvili, but fell apart by losing four games in a row to drop the match.
Even worse has to be the manner in which Stan Wawrinka lost to Ivo Karlovic- he was up a set and a break before being pegged back, losing the tie-breaker and then dropping serve immediately in the final set to lose the match.
Pathetic to be honest with you.
Thankfully Rafael Nadal came out of a difficult position to win his match else it could have felt like a disastrous day, but I am frustrated that it didn't end up with a winning position on Wednesday considering how close at least three of the losing picks were to being successful.
The tournaments in Singapore, Basel and Valencia continue on Thursday when we get the first two Semi Finalists in the WTA Finals as well as setting up the Quarter Final line up for the two ATP events this week.
Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is a big match for both players in action this Thursday as both still have a chance of qualifying for the Semi Final despite losing their last match. Simona Halep can confirm her place in the Semi Finals if she can win this match in straight sets, while Agnieszka Radwanska would be able to do the same if she can win in straight sets and Flavia Pennetta is beaten in straight sets later in the day's play.
Any kind of win for Halep will give her a chance of progressing and that means her motivation should be high through this match, but I do wonder about Radwanska's mindset. If she is to drop a set, it means Radwanska is going to be out of the tournament even if she wins this match and that could see her check out.
Some might look at that as a chance for her to loosen up and let rip with nothing left to play for until January, but it has been a long season and she could just as easily tank away the match. Simona Halep has dominated Radwanska in recent matches too which should give her the mental edge and I definitely think she has more in her game to exploit the serve of the Pole than the other way around.
The last time they met saw Radwanska make an incredible start before Simona Halep took over but I think it might be a little more straight-forward for the World Number 2 this time around. After taking a tight first set, I look for Halep to pull away for a 64, 62 win.
Flavia Pennetta + 1.5 sets v Maria Sharapova: After winning just three games in her first match in Singapore, Flavia Pennetta would have been pleased to have her own destiny in her hands going into the final Group match. A straight sets win for Flavia Pennetta will be enough to get into the Semi Final and prolong her career by at least one more match, although she will know the exact permutations by the time she goes to the court.
For Maria Sharapova it looks a lot more straight-forward as winning a set should be enough to move into the Semi Final having won her first two matches with a 4-1 set advantage. There hasn't been too many signs of the injury that has kept Sharapova off the Tour over the last few months, but Flavia Pennetta has been something of a conundrum for the Russian.
Pennetta has won the last three matches between the players and all of their matches have been competitive with every single one needing a final set decider to determine the winner. I like the way the Italian battled back to beat Agnieszka Radwanska in her second Group game having been embarrassed by Simona Halep on Sunday, and Pennetta will give it her all with this potentially being her last match on the Tour.
The head to head with Sharapova will inspire her too and I like Pennetta's chances of taking at least a set in this one at a generous odds against quote. She has done that in every previous match against Sharapova and the mere fact she has won three in a row against the Russian should inspire a big performance from Pennetta.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Both players got through tough matches on Wednesday to move into the Second Round and I think Marin Cilic can back that up by beating Teymuraz Gabashvili and reaching yet another Quarter Final.
Out of the two players, Cilic was a little more in control of his win on Wednesday and it was Gabashvili who had to dig very deep to see off Leonardo Mayer. Of course Cilic had a longer week last week when winning the title in Moscow, but I don't envision fatigue being an issue for either player.
The more consistent player is Cilic and I think Gabashvili won't have so much luck holding serve as he did on Wednesday. The Croatian has to serve well too to make sure he doesn't give Gabashvili any kind of encouragement in this one, but I think Cilic has been playing well enough to do that and win this match.
Cilic should have the majority of break points in this match and I like him coming through 64, 63.
John Isner - 1.5 games v Jack Sock: Both John Isner and Jack Sock are going to be very happy with the way their 2015 seasons have panned out and both look set to finish in the top thirty of the World Rankings. The chances of John Isner reaching the World Tour Finals look to have gone now, but he will still want to end this season well and try and get into the World Top Ten.
Both men might be looking forward to the end of the season now, but Jack Sock did reach the Final in Stockholm last week and John Isner reached the Quarter Final in Beijing. That shows both are still very focused on the matches they are playing and I think this is going to be a close match decided by a point here and there.
John Isner has had the better of Jack Sock in the past as his serve is a little more solid all around and that has kept the scoreboard pressure on his compatriot. Sock will always give away at least one really sloppy game on serve and Isner is a great front runner that will be able to push away from him if he can get ahead here.
The speed of the courts should make this a close match that features a tie-breaker or two, but I give the edge to John Isner to find a break somewhere and come through this match 64, 67, 76.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This has always been a tournament that Roger Federer would place some real stock in having been a ball boy here in his younger days. Being back at home will only inspire Roger Federer all the more and he was a comfortable winner in the First Round.
He might have won all ten previous matches against Philipp Kohlschreiber, but there is no doubt that Federer will have a lot of respect for his opponent. These two are friends off court that have practiced together many times too so Federer will know all about the quality that Kohlschreiber can bring to the court.
However, Kohlschreiber has looked like he is slipping somewhat through the 2015 season and he is more likely to throw in a poor couple of service games than he was when at his very best. I think the German will be inspired going up against Federer and he will produce some quality tennis, but the problem will be trying to maintain that through the Second Round match.
Eventually you have to think Federer's quality will make the difference with a few returns and he will be too good as long as he serves effectively through the match. He was a little loose on that side in his win over Mikhail Kukushkin, but I think Federer will be more focused knowing the quality player he is facing and will come through this one 63, 64.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The Tour is a tough learning school for the young players that take it on and Andrey Rublev will look back at 2015 and take note of the lessons he learnt. The youngster has shown he has the talent to reach the very top of the men's game, but it will take time as he grows into his body and gets used to the weekly grind of the ATP Tour.
The younger players tend to have a little bit more fatigue in the final month of the season and I think Rublev will do well to keep up with Roberto Bautista Agut who is happy being on the court all day. The Spaniard did reach the Final in Moscow last week and had to dig deep to beat Nicolas Almagro in the First Round here which might mean some fatigue is in play, but I think his experience of managing the season Tour will give him the edge in this match.
Both players will likely have their chances to break serve, but I think Bautista Agut is the more consistent player at this stage of their career. I expect he will look to dig deep and grind down Rublev who had a solid First Round win to snap a four match losing run on the Tour.
Rublev has suffered some one-sided losses in recent weeks as the season winds down and I think Roberto Bautista Agut wins this one 64, 63 after wearing down his younger opponent.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta + 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-10, - 10.78 Units (30 Units Staked, - 35.93% Yield)
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Showing posts with label WTA Championship Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WTA Championship Picks. Show all posts
Thursday, 29 October 2015
Wednesday, 28 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 28th)
The last three months of the tennis season have given me my worst run in over four years of doing this and I have to say it has been really frustrating at times. I can't remember a run of form where so many times players look set to come in as a winning pick, but then inexplicably blow a lead.
Either that or they will start off so slowly that they can't really have much of a chance of covering despite then dominating the later two sets in the manner I expected them to start it.
And worst of all is the terrible break point conversion rate that so many players have gone through when I have picked them- that alone would be disappointing, but the fact they have then allowed their opponents to dominate in that category has proven to be a killer.
All of these factors were in play on Tuesday as both David Goffin and Philipp Kohlschreiber won their matches, but failed to cover because they combined for just 33% of break point chances converted. That was compared with their opponents converting 50% of their opportunities and proved to be a big difference even though Goffin and Kohlschreiber had many more chances to break serve.
With that kind of luck, I have to say this season has been a big disappointment for the picks which had been in an incredible position after Wimbledon but I haven't been able to escape the awful weeks in the time since.
I'll make some adjustments in the off-season to get ready for the 2016 season as I look for the final month of the season to at least show some form.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: These two Czech Republic players have both been struggling with injuries and illness and also were both beaten in straight sets to open the WTA Championship.
That means both Petra Kvitova and Lucie Safarova will be desperate to get back to winning ways in their second Group game, especially if they have a real ambition of getting through to the Semi Final. The losing player is almost certainly going to be out of the tournament and that will bring its own pressure, but Kvitova has dominated Safarova and has to believe she can continue that.
Neither player has done much winning of late which will be a concern for both, but Kvitova has generally found a way to break down the Safarova game. And Kvitova was much more competitive than Safarova in the first game that both played in Singapore and was perhaps a little unfortunate she didn't win the second set tie-breaker against Angelique Kerber which might have turned the whole momentum of that match.
Petra Kvitova has usually been able to wear down Safarova in their matches and I am looking for her to put together a tough 76, 63 win.
Garbine Muguruza-Angelique Kerber Over 21.5 Total Games: Matches between Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza have been tough battles and I think their match in Singapore could easily follow suit. Both Kerber and Muguruza won their opening match to put themselves in a solid position to qualify for the Semi Final, but the losing player will have some significant work to get through to ensure they do just that.
The six previous matches between these two players has seen each player win three times, but I am not surprised Muguruza is given the edge by the layers as she has won three in a row. However, a more noticeable trend is the fact that the last four matches have all been very competitive and would have surpassed this total number of games they are being asked to cover.
As good a player as Muguruza is, she still has the tendency to throw in too many sloppy service games which give opponents a chance. The fluctuations in her game are not as bad as they once were, but there are enough to give Kerber a chance even if the Spaniard has the power to hit through her.
Those fluctuations in the Muguruza game could easily see both players win a set in this one and I think that should see this total number of games passed. Even a tight two setter would do in this match and I will back the over total games.
Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Marco Chiudinelli: The extra day of recovery was given to Marin Cilic after he won the title in Moscow on Sunday, but the draw looks a kind one for him to open up in Basel. That is no disrespect to the veteran Marco Chiudinelli, but the Wild Card into the tournament has had some bad losses in recent weeks to players far inferior to Cilic.
These two have actually met in Basel before with Cilic coming through in straight sets and losing just six games in the match. Fatigue is the bigger concern for Cilic this week, but he still has an outside ambition of making it through to the World Tour Finals and that might be motivation enough to ignore any tiredness.
I wouldn't want to totally underestimate the veteran Chiudinelli in this contest, but I think he is going to be put under pressure through the match. It will come down to whether he can serve effectively enough to maintain momentum and turn the screw on Cilic, but it looks a big ask for him at this stage of his career.
I believe Cilic is able to earn at least three breaks of serve and that should set him up for a 64, 62 kind of win in this one.
Leonardo Mayer - 1.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: It was a solid week for Teymuraz Gabashvili in Moscow, although the defeat in the Quarter Final in the manner it came would have disappointed. That has been a rare week of success for Gabashvili in recent weeks though and I think he will have a difficult time seeing off Leonardo Mayer in this First Round match in Basel.
There hasn't been a lot of winning done by Mayer in recent weeks, but he has lost to better players than Gabashvili while winning the matches he has been expected to. I have been a little disappointed that Mayer wasn't able to win one of his two matches against Gilles Simon, but the Frenchman is a far different proposition than Gabashvili.
This should be a much bigger hitting kind of match that should suit Mayer and Gabashvili, but I think the former has a little more to like about his game. There is no doubting that Gabashvili has plenty of talent, but his serve can be a weakness and Mayer's is definitely the better shot which can be a difference maker.
I won't be surprised to see this one go three sets, but I like Mayer to find his way through to the Second Round behind a 64, 67, 64 win.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: It has been a career season for Kevin Anderson but it doesn't look like he will have enough in the locker to reach the World Tour Finals. That remains a goal for the South African, but he has suffered some disappointing losses over the last month to the likes of Gilles Muller and Steve Johnson that might have ended Anderson's hopes of playing in London.
He could be one of the top Seeds that is quite vulnerable over the last few weeks of the season, but I think Anderson will be a little too strong for the talented youngster Borna Coric.
This is the first full year on the Tour that Coric has competed in and I think the last month has shown that it has taken its toll and fatigue is an issue. Coric has lost three of his last four matches and his thoughts could easily have drifted to the off-season and then focusing on 2016 and I think there are a couple of reasons that Anderson should find himself a winner and a cover of this margin.
The first of those is the Anderson serve should give him a decent chance to keep his nose in front on the scoreboard while Coric is still trying to get the best out of his own serve. That will come once he finishes growing into his body, but it also means he can have trouble holding onto serve at times and I think giving Anderson the lead will be tough for him to peg back at this stage of his career.
After a battling first set, Anderson may be able to move clear for a 64, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Ivo Karlovic has been serving like a monster in recent weeks and that is shown by the fact that he has not dropped a set outside of a tie-breaker in any of his nine matches since the US Open.
You can't say he hasn't played some tough matches in that time with a three set loss to Rafael Nadal at the Shanghai Masters the most memorable. However, Karlovic has dropped matches in straight sets to Ernests Gulbis, Pablo Cuevas and Nick Kyrgios although all of those have been in two tie-breakers.
Now he faces Stan Wawrinka in conditions that should suit his serve and that makes him very dangerous if the Swiss Number 2 is not at his best. It can be tough to look after your own side of the court when it feels like you are constantly serving, while Wawrinka can be accused of being a little slack when it comes to his service games.
However, you can't ignore the fact that Wawrinka is playing at home and has had the better of Karlovic in their recent matches. Only some poor play at break point up prevented Wawrinka beating Karlovic more comfortably when they played at the Cincinnati Masters in August, but I think he will be a little stronger this time.
Breaking the Karlovic serve is far from easy with the way the Croatian is playing, but Wawrinka is capable of doing it with the bounce going his way at break points. Even if those don't come his way, Karlovic has lost a few matches now in straight sets with both sets being decided on the tie-breaker so I will back Wawrinka to cover this number of games on Wednesday.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Rafael Nadal could so easily be out of the tournament in Basel, but he dug deep to come back from Lukas Rosol serving for the match and turn the match around completely.
It backs up his successful weeks in Beijing and Shanghai and Nadal won't want to slip up against Grigor Dimitrov, a player he has beaten every time they have met on the court.
If people thought Nadal has had a bad season, Dimitrov fans will point out how difficult it has been for their own man this year. He might have had a convincing win over Sergiy Stakhovsky to move into the Second Round, but Dimitrov has had plenty of disappointing losses all year with little sign of that changing.
I am struggling to see how Dimitrov has changed things significantly to keep Nadal at bay in this one and I think the Spaniard is going to be too strong. They have had some close matches in the past, but this could be a little more in favour of Nadal and I think he is playing the superior tennis and is definitely the more confident player.
That can make the difference and ensure Nadal is able to move through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza-Angelique Kerber Over 21.5 Total Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Betway (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 51.25% Yield)
Either that or they will start off so slowly that they can't really have much of a chance of covering despite then dominating the later two sets in the manner I expected them to start it.
And worst of all is the terrible break point conversion rate that so many players have gone through when I have picked them- that alone would be disappointing, but the fact they have then allowed their opponents to dominate in that category has proven to be a killer.
All of these factors were in play on Tuesday as both David Goffin and Philipp Kohlschreiber won their matches, but failed to cover because they combined for just 33% of break point chances converted. That was compared with their opponents converting 50% of their opportunities and proved to be a big difference even though Goffin and Kohlschreiber had many more chances to break serve.
With that kind of luck, I have to say this season has been a big disappointment for the picks which had been in an incredible position after Wimbledon but I haven't been able to escape the awful weeks in the time since.
I'll make some adjustments in the off-season to get ready for the 2016 season as I look for the final month of the season to at least show some form.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: These two Czech Republic players have both been struggling with injuries and illness and also were both beaten in straight sets to open the WTA Championship.
That means both Petra Kvitova and Lucie Safarova will be desperate to get back to winning ways in their second Group game, especially if they have a real ambition of getting through to the Semi Final. The losing player is almost certainly going to be out of the tournament and that will bring its own pressure, but Kvitova has dominated Safarova and has to believe she can continue that.
Neither player has done much winning of late which will be a concern for both, but Kvitova has generally found a way to break down the Safarova game. And Kvitova was much more competitive than Safarova in the first game that both played in Singapore and was perhaps a little unfortunate she didn't win the second set tie-breaker against Angelique Kerber which might have turned the whole momentum of that match.
Petra Kvitova has usually been able to wear down Safarova in their matches and I am looking for her to put together a tough 76, 63 win.
Garbine Muguruza-Angelique Kerber Over 21.5 Total Games: Matches between Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza have been tough battles and I think their match in Singapore could easily follow suit. Both Kerber and Muguruza won their opening match to put themselves in a solid position to qualify for the Semi Final, but the losing player will have some significant work to get through to ensure they do just that.
The six previous matches between these two players has seen each player win three times, but I am not surprised Muguruza is given the edge by the layers as she has won three in a row. However, a more noticeable trend is the fact that the last four matches have all been very competitive and would have surpassed this total number of games they are being asked to cover.
As good a player as Muguruza is, she still has the tendency to throw in too many sloppy service games which give opponents a chance. The fluctuations in her game are not as bad as they once were, but there are enough to give Kerber a chance even if the Spaniard has the power to hit through her.
Those fluctuations in the Muguruza game could easily see both players win a set in this one and I think that should see this total number of games passed. Even a tight two setter would do in this match and I will back the over total games.
Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Marco Chiudinelli: The extra day of recovery was given to Marin Cilic after he won the title in Moscow on Sunday, but the draw looks a kind one for him to open up in Basel. That is no disrespect to the veteran Marco Chiudinelli, but the Wild Card into the tournament has had some bad losses in recent weeks to players far inferior to Cilic.
These two have actually met in Basel before with Cilic coming through in straight sets and losing just six games in the match. Fatigue is the bigger concern for Cilic this week, but he still has an outside ambition of making it through to the World Tour Finals and that might be motivation enough to ignore any tiredness.
I wouldn't want to totally underestimate the veteran Chiudinelli in this contest, but I think he is going to be put under pressure through the match. It will come down to whether he can serve effectively enough to maintain momentum and turn the screw on Cilic, but it looks a big ask for him at this stage of his career.
I believe Cilic is able to earn at least three breaks of serve and that should set him up for a 64, 62 kind of win in this one.
Leonardo Mayer - 1.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: It was a solid week for Teymuraz Gabashvili in Moscow, although the defeat in the Quarter Final in the manner it came would have disappointed. That has been a rare week of success for Gabashvili in recent weeks though and I think he will have a difficult time seeing off Leonardo Mayer in this First Round match in Basel.
There hasn't been a lot of winning done by Mayer in recent weeks, but he has lost to better players than Gabashvili while winning the matches he has been expected to. I have been a little disappointed that Mayer wasn't able to win one of his two matches against Gilles Simon, but the Frenchman is a far different proposition than Gabashvili.
This should be a much bigger hitting kind of match that should suit Mayer and Gabashvili, but I think the former has a little more to like about his game. There is no doubting that Gabashvili has plenty of talent, but his serve can be a weakness and Mayer's is definitely the better shot which can be a difference maker.
I won't be surprised to see this one go three sets, but I like Mayer to find his way through to the Second Round behind a 64, 67, 64 win.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: It has been a career season for Kevin Anderson but it doesn't look like he will have enough in the locker to reach the World Tour Finals. That remains a goal for the South African, but he has suffered some disappointing losses over the last month to the likes of Gilles Muller and Steve Johnson that might have ended Anderson's hopes of playing in London.
He could be one of the top Seeds that is quite vulnerable over the last few weeks of the season, but I think Anderson will be a little too strong for the talented youngster Borna Coric.
This is the first full year on the Tour that Coric has competed in and I think the last month has shown that it has taken its toll and fatigue is an issue. Coric has lost three of his last four matches and his thoughts could easily have drifted to the off-season and then focusing on 2016 and I think there are a couple of reasons that Anderson should find himself a winner and a cover of this margin.
The first of those is the Anderson serve should give him a decent chance to keep his nose in front on the scoreboard while Coric is still trying to get the best out of his own serve. That will come once he finishes growing into his body, but it also means he can have trouble holding onto serve at times and I think giving Anderson the lead will be tough for him to peg back at this stage of his career.
After a battling first set, Anderson may be able to move clear for a 64, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Ivo Karlovic has been serving like a monster in recent weeks and that is shown by the fact that he has not dropped a set outside of a tie-breaker in any of his nine matches since the US Open.
You can't say he hasn't played some tough matches in that time with a three set loss to Rafael Nadal at the Shanghai Masters the most memorable. However, Karlovic has dropped matches in straight sets to Ernests Gulbis, Pablo Cuevas and Nick Kyrgios although all of those have been in two tie-breakers.
Now he faces Stan Wawrinka in conditions that should suit his serve and that makes him very dangerous if the Swiss Number 2 is not at his best. It can be tough to look after your own side of the court when it feels like you are constantly serving, while Wawrinka can be accused of being a little slack when it comes to his service games.
However, you can't ignore the fact that Wawrinka is playing at home and has had the better of Karlovic in their recent matches. Only some poor play at break point up prevented Wawrinka beating Karlovic more comfortably when they played at the Cincinnati Masters in August, but I think he will be a little stronger this time.
Breaking the Karlovic serve is far from easy with the way the Croatian is playing, but Wawrinka is capable of doing it with the bounce going his way at break points. Even if those don't come his way, Karlovic has lost a few matches now in straight sets with both sets being decided on the tie-breaker so I will back Wawrinka to cover this number of games on Wednesday.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Rafael Nadal could so easily be out of the tournament in Basel, but he dug deep to come back from Lukas Rosol serving for the match and turn the match around completely.
It backs up his successful weeks in Beijing and Shanghai and Nadal won't want to slip up against Grigor Dimitrov, a player he has beaten every time they have met on the court.
If people thought Nadal has had a bad season, Dimitrov fans will point out how difficult it has been for their own man this year. He might have had a convincing win over Sergiy Stakhovsky to move into the Second Round, but Dimitrov has had plenty of disappointing losses all year with little sign of that changing.
I am struggling to see how Dimitrov has changed things significantly to keep Nadal at bay in this one and I think the Spaniard is going to be too strong. They have had some close matches in the past, but this could be a little more in favour of Nadal and I think he is playing the superior tennis and is definitely the more confident player.
That can make the difference and ensure Nadal is able to move through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza-Angelique Kerber Over 21.5 Total Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Betway (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 51.25% Yield)
Tuesday, 27 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 27th)
The first matches in Group A and B at the WTA Championships are now in the books and there have been a couple of surprising results already, none more so than Maria Sharapova battling back from a set down to beat Agnieszka Radwanska.
Group A is back in action on Tuesday and it is a critical time for Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta with the losing player most likely out of the tournament depending on what happens in the other match on the same day. It could be an emotional day for Pennetta who announced she would be retiring at the end of this tournament as she is on the brink of an exit with a straight sets loss going to see her knocked out of the event.
The ATP events in Basel and Valencia will continue on Tuesday as the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played, but I can't go on without mentioning Rafael Nadal's win over Lukas Rosol despite finding himself just a couple of points away from losing that match.
Rosol has been a thorn in the side of Nadal over the years that began with a victory over the Spaniard at Wimbledon and he clearly relishes this match up. Two months ago I am convinced Nadal would have lost that match having not created a break point in the first two sets up until breaking Rosol in the second set when the latter was serving for the match.
That's another win that will build Nadal's confidence having had a couple of solid weeks in Beijing and Shanghai and rumours of his despise do seem greatly exaggerated. His Ranking is not going to improve drastically over the last couple of weeks of the season, but this will give him real belief to take into the 2016 season if he can finish off his last couple of tournaments in impressive form and the win for Nadal looks a huge one, especially if he can go on and have a strong week in Basel.
Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Games: This is a huge match for both of these players as they look to get back into a position where they can make a move to the Semi Finals. A defeat for Flavia Pennetta will likely mean her career is at an end, but I can see the Italian putting it all in after a very one-sided loss to Simona Halep last time out.
Matches between Agnieszka Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta has seen both players have their successes but the one glaring trend is how one-sided the matches tend to be. It might only be five wins to three in favour of Radwanska, but the last six matches have all seen only eighteen games or fewer needed to decide the winner.
I am not entirely sure why that is, but my feeling is that Pennetta's power will either break through the Radwanska defences consistently or she may make too many mistakes and allow the Pole to surge clear.
Picking a winner might actually be more difficult than the layers think, but Radwanska's big wins over Pennetta concerned me enough to steer clear of the handicap too. However, this might be too many games for the pair to surpass judging by recent matches between the two and it might be another one-sided win for one of the players that will put the winner in a position to advance to the Semi Finals.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: At this stage of a very long season, players have to search for the motivation to keep going on the Tour. Some will still be chasing a place in the World Tour Finals, others are just hoping to set a marker for the new 2016 season while others still are perhaps wanting to build confidence for a big chance to represent their nation.
The last of those might be the motivation for David Goffin who will be representing Belgium in the Davis Cup Final next month. That Final is played on the clay courts so Goffin might be using the last two weeks to simply put some wins together and give himself plenty of belief to take into the Davis Cup.
It won't be easy against Andreas Seppi who is a competitive character on the Tour, but the Italian has lost four straight matches on the Tour. That includes a straight sets loss to Goffin in Beijing and I think it will be tough for Seppi to turn that form around when he will be forced to work so hard to hold his serve.
The veteran Italian is a tough opponent to see off on his day, but the match up is one that Goffin should appreciate as he will have time to tee off on the Seppi serve which remains a weakness. I'd be surprised if Goffin has it as easy as he did in Beijing against Seppi when he lost just five games, but I still think he wins this one 64, 64 and moves into the Second Round.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: Whenever a player comes through the Qualifiers, I always think they have to be given plenty of respect as a couple of wins will give anyone some confidence. The dangerous Jerzy Janowicz is a player that thrives on confidence but this has been a difficult season for him and I do wonder if his two wins this week to get into the main draw is enough for him to turn that around.
The conditions in Basel should suit Janowicz whose best run on the main Tour has come on the indoor hard courts when reaching the Final at the Paris Masters. However, too many double faults and too many poor shot selections doesn't help the Pole's cause and a solid player like Philipp Kohlschreiber can take advantage.
The veteran might be coming down to the latter stages of his career, but Kohlschreiber has had a couple of solid runs in tournaments since the US Open. He looks good for a Seed at the Australian Open in January, but to ensure that happens Kohlschreiber would love another solid run in Basel.
Kohlschreiber has been in better recent form than Janowicz and he has won his last two matches against this opponent. Despite the fact Janowicz might be more in tune with the conditions, I think Kohlschreiber can be solid enough to look after his own serve and find a break on his way to a 76, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: There is no doubting that 2015 has been a disappointing season for Grigor Dimitrov who has also had to deal with personal and professional changes. The end of the season has to be used to ensure he will at least be Seeded at the Australian Open in January while also trying to build some momentum to take into the new season.
Being down at Number 28 in the World Rankings is a real surprise for Dimitrov fans, especially if you had told them that at the beginning of the season. He hasn't shown too much positive form since the US Open so it might be a surprise I am picking him to win by a comfortable margin in this First Round match.
However, Sergiy Stakhovsky is the kind of player that can produce some solid stuff, but is more likely to throw in a couple of terrible service games to go down without too much of a fight. The win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon will be his career highlight, but Stakhovsky has lost by wide margins to lesser players than Grigor Dimitrov since the US Open.
I remain a little concerned with the Bulgarian and his lack of form because that means confidence is dented and Dimitrov is more likely to throw a sloppy game in himself when it comes to the serve. Even with those doubts in my mind, I still think he is going to be too good for Stakhovsky and I will look for Dimitrov to win this one 64, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Neither one of these players can really point to too much recent productive form, although Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has the edge over Fernando Verdasco in that regards. It does feel like Fernando Verdasco is perhaps on an irreversible slide down the World Rankings these days, but he has dominated his compatriot and has won five straight matches against him including one match earlier this season.
The problem for Verdasco is that his inconsistencies on the court have now shifted in terms of producing wins- he has always been inconsistent, but Verdasco generally used to produce more good than bad, although it feels that has perhaps moved the other way these days.
That has seen Verdasco lose some tight matches in the last few months rather than winning those to maintain his Ranking and would be a concern in backing him in this First Round match. However, I think Garcia-Lopez has to overcome a mental hurdle when he takes on Verdasco which can be difficult against a player from the same nation.
Garcia-Lopez has had some disappointing losses since reaching the Final in Shenzhen and I think Verdasco has a little more out of the serve that can help him through this one. It will likely need three sets for Verdasco to get it done, but I like his chances of coming through 63, 36, 63 and earn an important win.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Total Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)
Group A is back in action on Tuesday and it is a critical time for Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta with the losing player most likely out of the tournament depending on what happens in the other match on the same day. It could be an emotional day for Pennetta who announced she would be retiring at the end of this tournament as she is on the brink of an exit with a straight sets loss going to see her knocked out of the event.
The ATP events in Basel and Valencia will continue on Tuesday as the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played, but I can't go on without mentioning Rafael Nadal's win over Lukas Rosol despite finding himself just a couple of points away from losing that match.
Rosol has been a thorn in the side of Nadal over the years that began with a victory over the Spaniard at Wimbledon and he clearly relishes this match up. Two months ago I am convinced Nadal would have lost that match having not created a break point in the first two sets up until breaking Rosol in the second set when the latter was serving for the match.
That's another win that will build Nadal's confidence having had a couple of solid weeks in Beijing and Shanghai and rumours of his despise do seem greatly exaggerated. His Ranking is not going to improve drastically over the last couple of weeks of the season, but this will give him real belief to take into the 2016 season if he can finish off his last couple of tournaments in impressive form and the win for Nadal looks a huge one, especially if he can go on and have a strong week in Basel.
Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Games: This is a huge match for both of these players as they look to get back into a position where they can make a move to the Semi Finals. A defeat for Flavia Pennetta will likely mean her career is at an end, but I can see the Italian putting it all in after a very one-sided loss to Simona Halep last time out.
Matches between Agnieszka Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta has seen both players have their successes but the one glaring trend is how one-sided the matches tend to be. It might only be five wins to three in favour of Radwanska, but the last six matches have all seen only eighteen games or fewer needed to decide the winner.
I am not entirely sure why that is, but my feeling is that Pennetta's power will either break through the Radwanska defences consistently or she may make too many mistakes and allow the Pole to surge clear.
Picking a winner might actually be more difficult than the layers think, but Radwanska's big wins over Pennetta concerned me enough to steer clear of the handicap too. However, this might be too many games for the pair to surpass judging by recent matches between the two and it might be another one-sided win for one of the players that will put the winner in a position to advance to the Semi Finals.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: At this stage of a very long season, players have to search for the motivation to keep going on the Tour. Some will still be chasing a place in the World Tour Finals, others are just hoping to set a marker for the new 2016 season while others still are perhaps wanting to build confidence for a big chance to represent their nation.
The last of those might be the motivation for David Goffin who will be representing Belgium in the Davis Cup Final next month. That Final is played on the clay courts so Goffin might be using the last two weeks to simply put some wins together and give himself plenty of belief to take into the Davis Cup.
It won't be easy against Andreas Seppi who is a competitive character on the Tour, but the Italian has lost four straight matches on the Tour. That includes a straight sets loss to Goffin in Beijing and I think it will be tough for Seppi to turn that form around when he will be forced to work so hard to hold his serve.
The veteran Italian is a tough opponent to see off on his day, but the match up is one that Goffin should appreciate as he will have time to tee off on the Seppi serve which remains a weakness. I'd be surprised if Goffin has it as easy as he did in Beijing against Seppi when he lost just five games, but I still think he wins this one 64, 64 and moves into the Second Round.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: Whenever a player comes through the Qualifiers, I always think they have to be given plenty of respect as a couple of wins will give anyone some confidence. The dangerous Jerzy Janowicz is a player that thrives on confidence but this has been a difficult season for him and I do wonder if his two wins this week to get into the main draw is enough for him to turn that around.
The conditions in Basel should suit Janowicz whose best run on the main Tour has come on the indoor hard courts when reaching the Final at the Paris Masters. However, too many double faults and too many poor shot selections doesn't help the Pole's cause and a solid player like Philipp Kohlschreiber can take advantage.
The veteran might be coming down to the latter stages of his career, but Kohlschreiber has had a couple of solid runs in tournaments since the US Open. He looks good for a Seed at the Australian Open in January, but to ensure that happens Kohlschreiber would love another solid run in Basel.
Kohlschreiber has been in better recent form than Janowicz and he has won his last two matches against this opponent. Despite the fact Janowicz might be more in tune with the conditions, I think Kohlschreiber can be solid enough to look after his own serve and find a break on his way to a 76, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: There is no doubting that 2015 has been a disappointing season for Grigor Dimitrov who has also had to deal with personal and professional changes. The end of the season has to be used to ensure he will at least be Seeded at the Australian Open in January while also trying to build some momentum to take into the new season.
Being down at Number 28 in the World Rankings is a real surprise for Dimitrov fans, especially if you had told them that at the beginning of the season. He hasn't shown too much positive form since the US Open so it might be a surprise I am picking him to win by a comfortable margin in this First Round match.
However, Sergiy Stakhovsky is the kind of player that can produce some solid stuff, but is more likely to throw in a couple of terrible service games to go down without too much of a fight. The win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon will be his career highlight, but Stakhovsky has lost by wide margins to lesser players than Grigor Dimitrov since the US Open.
I remain a little concerned with the Bulgarian and his lack of form because that means confidence is dented and Dimitrov is more likely to throw a sloppy game in himself when it comes to the serve. Even with those doubts in my mind, I still think he is going to be too good for Stakhovsky and I will look for Dimitrov to win this one 64, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Neither one of these players can really point to too much recent productive form, although Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has the edge over Fernando Verdasco in that regards. It does feel like Fernando Verdasco is perhaps on an irreversible slide down the World Rankings these days, but he has dominated his compatriot and has won five straight matches against him including one match earlier this season.
The problem for Verdasco is that his inconsistencies on the court have now shifted in terms of producing wins- he has always been inconsistent, but Verdasco generally used to produce more good than bad, although it feels that has perhaps moved the other way these days.
That has seen Verdasco lose some tight matches in the last few months rather than winning those to maintain his Ranking and would be a concern in backing him in this First Round match. However, I think Garcia-Lopez has to overcome a mental hurdle when he takes on Verdasco which can be difficult against a player from the same nation.
Garcia-Lopez has had some disappointing losses since reaching the Final in Shenzhen and I think Verdasco has a little more out of the serve that can help him through this one. It will likely need three sets for Verdasco to get it done, but I like his chances of coming through 63, 36, 63 and earn an important win.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Total Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)
Monday, 26 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 26th)
The WTA Tour Finals began on Sunday, but the rest of the tournaments that are being played this week begin their main draw matches on Monday in both Basel and Valencia. The tennis season is winding down and I have accepted that this is comfortably the worst season for the picks with the last three months being completely poor and ruining what had been a strong season to that point.
I will make some adjustments in the off-season to make sure that I won't have that happen again, but I also don't want to change too much considering it looked like being a very strong season up until the middle of July.
There aren't too many matches scheduled for Monday in the main draws of the three events being played this week, but I do have two picks from the matches taking place.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Lucie Safarova: This would easily be the biggest title of Garbine Muguruza's career if she can win the WTA Tour Finals as one of the favourites this week. She has been in decent form of late having won the title in Beijing as well as reaching the Final in Wuhan and Muguruza should be confident heading to Singapore.
A lot more confident than Lucie Safarova who has lost four matches in a row and has been suffering with an illness in the later portion of the season. I really like the tennis that Safarova has produced over the last eighteen months, but she would need to be at her best to get the better of Muguruza for the second time this season following a straight sets win at the French Open.
The serve can be very effective and that makes Safarova dangerous, but she might not have the same level of fitness to maintain that and it will be difficult for her to beat an in-form Muguruza.
My one concern with a number like this is the fact that Muguruza can be a little inconsistent within a single match and she plays a high-risk brand of tennis that can suddenly produce a lot of mistakes. If she gives Safarova a helping hand with unforced errors, Muguruza could be dragged into a real battle in this opening Group game.
However, Safarova's illness issues are a bigger concern and she has been beaten comfortably in her recent matches and I think Muguruza battles to a 63, 64 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: There are just two weeks left of the regular season on the ATP Tour and so there might be a lack of motivation for some players in these final weeks. There are plenty of World Ranking points up for grabs, but someone like Santiago Giraldo will have to dig deep considering he has lost his last couple of matches since being forced out of a match in Kuala Lumper.
At least Vasek Pospisil has been putting together some wins of late even if this season has been a mixed bag for the Canadian on the Singles Tour. A Quarter Final run in Kuala Lumper was followed by defeats to Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet during the remainder of the Asian swing, but the wins he has had will give him confidence to move into the Second Round in Valencia.
The Pospisil serve can be a big weapon, but he is not as dominant behind that shot as he potentially could be. However Pospisil is a better returner than many men of his size and it has been part of the reason he has won his three previous matches against Giraldo who will produce a sloppy service game at least once per set.
If the Canadian can take the chances that will likely come his way, I think he makes it four in a row and covers this kind of spread for the fourth straight time too. Pospisil has dropped only two sets from the nine he has competed against Giraldo and both of those came in tie-breakers, but I think he comes through with a sold 75, 64 win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Weekly Final: 8-8, - 2.20 Units (32 Units Staked, - 6.88% Yield)
Season 2015: - 7.21 Units (1724 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I will make some adjustments in the off-season to make sure that I won't have that happen again, but I also don't want to change too much considering it looked like being a very strong season up until the middle of July.
There aren't too many matches scheduled for Monday in the main draws of the three events being played this week, but I do have two picks from the matches taking place.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Lucie Safarova: This would easily be the biggest title of Garbine Muguruza's career if she can win the WTA Tour Finals as one of the favourites this week. She has been in decent form of late having won the title in Beijing as well as reaching the Final in Wuhan and Muguruza should be confident heading to Singapore.
A lot more confident than Lucie Safarova who has lost four matches in a row and has been suffering with an illness in the later portion of the season. I really like the tennis that Safarova has produced over the last eighteen months, but she would need to be at her best to get the better of Muguruza for the second time this season following a straight sets win at the French Open.
The serve can be very effective and that makes Safarova dangerous, but she might not have the same level of fitness to maintain that and it will be difficult for her to beat an in-form Muguruza.
My one concern with a number like this is the fact that Muguruza can be a little inconsistent within a single match and she plays a high-risk brand of tennis that can suddenly produce a lot of mistakes. If she gives Safarova a helping hand with unforced errors, Muguruza could be dragged into a real battle in this opening Group game.
However, Safarova's illness issues are a bigger concern and she has been beaten comfortably in her recent matches and I think Muguruza battles to a 63, 64 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: There are just two weeks left of the regular season on the ATP Tour and so there might be a lack of motivation for some players in these final weeks. There are plenty of World Ranking points up for grabs, but someone like Santiago Giraldo will have to dig deep considering he has lost his last couple of matches since being forced out of a match in Kuala Lumper.
At least Vasek Pospisil has been putting together some wins of late even if this season has been a mixed bag for the Canadian on the Singles Tour. A Quarter Final run in Kuala Lumper was followed by defeats to Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet during the remainder of the Asian swing, but the wins he has had will give him confidence to move into the Second Round in Valencia.
The Pospisil serve can be a big weapon, but he is not as dominant behind that shot as he potentially could be. However Pospisil is a better returner than many men of his size and it has been part of the reason he has won his three previous matches against Giraldo who will produce a sloppy service game at least once per set.
If the Canadian can take the chances that will likely come his way, I think he makes it four in a row and covers this kind of spread for the fourth straight time too. Pospisil has dropped only two sets from the nine he has competed against Giraldo and both of those came in tie-breakers, but I think he comes through with a sold 75, 64 win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Weekly Final: 8-8, - 2.20 Units (32 Units Staked, - 6.88% Yield)
Season 2015: - 7.21 Units (1724 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Thursday, 24 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 24th)
It has truly been a terrible week when it comes to the tennis picks being made, but those have mainly been my own fault with some poor decisions made on my part. Sometimes you can look at bad luck, but this has not been one of those weeks as I have picked some poor matches and players haven't even been in matches that they have lost.
Anyway, hopefully Thursday will prove to be a better day for the picks going forward.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I think 2014 will see David Ferrer begin to drop rapidly down the World Rankings, especially the early part of the season when he has a lot of points to defend, while he has to do more of the same in the next couple of weeks.
Twelve months ago, Ferrer won the tournament in Valencia and followed that up with his first Masters win in Paris, and he got off to a decent start with a win over Gael Monfils yesterday. That will give him some confidence after Ferrer has really struggled for form since reaching the French Open Final and he has a number of surprise losses on his record since then.
It certainly isn't an easy match against Julien Benneteau who is coming off an impressive dismantling of Feliciano Lopez and the Frenchman has always enjoyed the indoor hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Benneteau has a surprisingly decent serve, although his second serve isn't as strong, and he can certainly play enough good tennis to break serve so Ferrer will have to be on his toes in this one. However, I do think that Ferrer is going to be able to earn a bit more from the longer rallies in this one.
I won't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I think Ferrer can come through with a 75, 64 win.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro is defending his title in Basel this week after a successful Asian swing and he has proven to be one of the best indoor players on the Tour over the last couple of years.
Just looking at his last twelve months will show he has titles in Basel, Vienna and Rotterdam, while he has also reached the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and Del Potro will certainly be tough to stop here this week.
Even with that in mind, I think Marcos Baghdatis could cause him some problems as he has in their past meetings and I like the Cypriot's chances to make this a competitive match despite a terrible 2013 season. I think Baghdatis causes problems for Del Potro because he is pretty strong off the ground and is willing to match what Del Potro brings to the court, although that is also why he hasn't been able to sustain that and actually beat the Argentinian player in their three matches this season.
There is every chance that Baghdatis can take a set in this one and that should put him in a position to cover the spread, although he will have to serve well too which can be an issue for him.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Na Li didn't return serve very well in her win over Sara Errani, but could book her place in the Semi Final with a win over Jelena Jankovic who is coming off an impressive win over Victoria Azarenka.
There is slightly less pressure on Jankovic which could make her a dangerous opponent, especially as she will face an injured Errani in her final match in the Group and the win over Azarenka puts the Serb in a strong spot.
I do think Li is the stronger player of the two, especially as Jankovic can be so erratic from day to day and she may also just relax a little too much off a big win as she had yesterday. The return game from Li will be the key in this one and she has to perform better in those positions than she did against Errani, but she had a lot of success against the Jankovic in the US Open that she can replicate here.
It will be close, but Li could come through 63, 76.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: It may be too late for Agnieszka Radwanska to qualify for the Semi Finals after losing her first two matches without winning a set, but she could have a small chance of going through if she wins this match impressively.
Radwanska has the game to make life very awkward for Angelique Kerber and the pressure is also on the German following her loss to Serena Williams in her opening match. Kerber does have decent ground strokes, but she is too often comfortable getting dragged into long rallies and you would have to back Radwanska to win the majority of those battles.
Both players will definitely feel more comfortable returning serve and they have split two matches over the last month, but I do think Radwanska's game is more reliable of the two. If Kerber serves particularly well, that could be a different story, while Radwanska dropping the first set may see her 'tank' the match, but I do believe the Pole is going to come through to give herself a small chance of progressing to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Anyway, hopefully Thursday will prove to be a better day for the picks going forward.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I think 2014 will see David Ferrer begin to drop rapidly down the World Rankings, especially the early part of the season when he has a lot of points to defend, while he has to do more of the same in the next couple of weeks.
Twelve months ago, Ferrer won the tournament in Valencia and followed that up with his first Masters win in Paris, and he got off to a decent start with a win over Gael Monfils yesterday. That will give him some confidence after Ferrer has really struggled for form since reaching the French Open Final and he has a number of surprise losses on his record since then.
It certainly isn't an easy match against Julien Benneteau who is coming off an impressive dismantling of Feliciano Lopez and the Frenchman has always enjoyed the indoor hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Benneteau has a surprisingly decent serve, although his second serve isn't as strong, and he can certainly play enough good tennis to break serve so Ferrer will have to be on his toes in this one. However, I do think that Ferrer is going to be able to earn a bit more from the longer rallies in this one.
I won't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I think Ferrer can come through with a 75, 64 win.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro is defending his title in Basel this week after a successful Asian swing and he has proven to be one of the best indoor players on the Tour over the last couple of years.
Just looking at his last twelve months will show he has titles in Basel, Vienna and Rotterdam, while he has also reached the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and Del Potro will certainly be tough to stop here this week.
Even with that in mind, I think Marcos Baghdatis could cause him some problems as he has in their past meetings and I like the Cypriot's chances to make this a competitive match despite a terrible 2013 season. I think Baghdatis causes problems for Del Potro because he is pretty strong off the ground and is willing to match what Del Potro brings to the court, although that is also why he hasn't been able to sustain that and actually beat the Argentinian player in their three matches this season.
There is every chance that Baghdatis can take a set in this one and that should put him in a position to cover the spread, although he will have to serve well too which can be an issue for him.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Na Li didn't return serve very well in her win over Sara Errani, but could book her place in the Semi Final with a win over Jelena Jankovic who is coming off an impressive win over Victoria Azarenka.
There is slightly less pressure on Jankovic which could make her a dangerous opponent, especially as she will face an injured Errani in her final match in the Group and the win over Azarenka puts the Serb in a strong spot.
I do think Li is the stronger player of the two, especially as Jankovic can be so erratic from day to day and she may also just relax a little too much off a big win as she had yesterday. The return game from Li will be the key in this one and she has to perform better in those positions than she did against Errani, but she had a lot of success against the Jankovic in the US Open that she can replicate here.
It will be close, but Li could come through 63, 76.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: It may be too late for Agnieszka Radwanska to qualify for the Semi Finals after losing her first two matches without winning a set, but she could have a small chance of going through if she wins this match impressively.
Radwanska has the game to make life very awkward for Angelique Kerber and the pressure is also on the German following her loss to Serena Williams in her opening match. Kerber does have decent ground strokes, but she is too often comfortable getting dragged into long rallies and you would have to back Radwanska to win the majority of those battles.
Both players will definitely feel more comfortable returning serve and they have split two matches over the last month, but I do think Radwanska's game is more reliable of the two. If Kerber serves particularly well, that could be a different story, while Radwanska dropping the first set may see her 'tank' the match, but I do believe the Pole is going to come through to give herself a small chance of progressing to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wednesday, 23 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 23rd)
It wasn't a fun Tuesday as the picks all seemed to decide to play like crap early and then try and turn things around... I was particularly disappointed with the early part of the Victoria Azarenka match as she had so many chances to take a commanding lead, but didn't really get going until she was 2-5 down in the set.
Hopefully Wednesday is a much better day as is the rest of the week.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Serena Williams started off a little slowly in her first match in Istanbul, but she still managed to run away with the match and I am expecting her to be too strong for Agnieszka Radwanska in this second match and book her place in the Semi Finals.
Radwanska lost her opening match last night and her game doesn't really trouble Serena as she doesn't have the power to really get the American moving side to side. If Serena has time to hit a ball, she is going to dictate the majority of points and the Radwanska serve doesn't set up too many short points either.
On the other hand, Williams will use her big serve to dominate rallies and it is no surprise that Radwanska has barely struggled to make matches competitive in the past when coming up against Serena.
The courts are playing a little slower from what I had seen yesterday, but Williams is playing too well to lose this match and I do expect another strong win.
Robin Haase v Vasek Pospisil: These two players met last week in Vienna and it was a fairly close match for the first couple of sets, although Robin Haase managed to pull away in the third set to take the win.
Both players will feel their game is suited to an indoor hard court as both have decent first serves, but both are also erratic off the ground. Vasek Pospisil will look to get to the net and put away volleys, but that also leaves him vulnerable to passing shots and I think the Canadian is going to struggle to consistently find winners at the net.
I don't particularly rate him when it comes to long, drawn out rallies from the back of the court, although I would be surprised if we see too many of those in this one. Robin Haase should be able to frank the win from last week as long as he isn't too tired from reaching the Final in Vienna where he came up a little short against Tommy Haas.
Kei Nishikori v Ivan Dodig: I actually quite like the way Ivan Dodig gets on with business on the court, but he can be a little erratic with his approach shots which can leave him in no man's land when he approaches the net.
He has a lot of good abilities with a strong serve and heavy groundies, while his doubles play has seen his volleys continue to improve, but a player like Kei Nishikori could give him fits as he makes him play one more shot.
Kei Nishikori should prove to be too strong over three sets in this one despite not having a huge shot in his arsenal, but I expect his consistency to grind down Dodig, although there will be a couple of close sets played. That means this match is likely going to come down to a couple of key points in each set and I think the Japanese player can come through those moments to win a close one.
Grigor Dimitrov v Radek Stepanek: It had been a tough couple of months for Grigor Dimitrov as the season was coming to a close, but he has recovered to win the tournament in Stockholm last week and may have the confidence to come through this match against Radek Stepanek.
It is tough to back up a winning week on the Tour as tiredness from travelling and a lot of tennis can catch up to players, but Dimitrov is definitely on the up while Stepanek's best performances are reserved for the Davis Cup or for doubles tournaments.
However, Stepanek has the ability to get under the skin of opponents and it may take Dimitrov a little while to get used to what he is seeing on the other side of the net. I think Stepanek will want the younger player to feel like he doesn't know what is coming next from him, but Dimitrov has played some big matches this year and should be able to handle the expectation.
It will likely be another close match, but I like Dimitrov to come through and get a step closer to the potential match up with Roger Federer later in the week.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Tommy Haas has given himself a little chance to get through to the World Tour Finals in London by winning the tournament in Vienna last week, but he still needs other players to lose early and himself to get close to winning the last two tournaments of the season if he is to sneak in.
That means he can't afford to take this match easy, although the veteran will also find it tough to back up the success of last week. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough player to get a handle on as he can play some sublime tennis, but then suddenly start exploding in a rash of errors from out of nowhere.
Kohlschreiber hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last six weeks though and I think that will work against him in this one and I do like Haas' chances of coming through in two tough sets.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Hopefully Wednesday is a much better day as is the rest of the week.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Serena Williams started off a little slowly in her first match in Istanbul, but she still managed to run away with the match and I am expecting her to be too strong for Agnieszka Radwanska in this second match and book her place in the Semi Finals.
Radwanska lost her opening match last night and her game doesn't really trouble Serena as she doesn't have the power to really get the American moving side to side. If Serena has time to hit a ball, she is going to dictate the majority of points and the Radwanska serve doesn't set up too many short points either.
On the other hand, Williams will use her big serve to dominate rallies and it is no surprise that Radwanska has barely struggled to make matches competitive in the past when coming up against Serena.
The courts are playing a little slower from what I had seen yesterday, but Williams is playing too well to lose this match and I do expect another strong win.
Robin Haase v Vasek Pospisil: These two players met last week in Vienna and it was a fairly close match for the first couple of sets, although Robin Haase managed to pull away in the third set to take the win.
Both players will feel their game is suited to an indoor hard court as both have decent first serves, but both are also erratic off the ground. Vasek Pospisil will look to get to the net and put away volleys, but that also leaves him vulnerable to passing shots and I think the Canadian is going to struggle to consistently find winners at the net.
I don't particularly rate him when it comes to long, drawn out rallies from the back of the court, although I would be surprised if we see too many of those in this one. Robin Haase should be able to frank the win from last week as long as he isn't too tired from reaching the Final in Vienna where he came up a little short against Tommy Haas.
Kei Nishikori v Ivan Dodig: I actually quite like the way Ivan Dodig gets on with business on the court, but he can be a little erratic with his approach shots which can leave him in no man's land when he approaches the net.
He has a lot of good abilities with a strong serve and heavy groundies, while his doubles play has seen his volleys continue to improve, but a player like Kei Nishikori could give him fits as he makes him play one more shot.
Kei Nishikori should prove to be too strong over three sets in this one despite not having a huge shot in his arsenal, but I expect his consistency to grind down Dodig, although there will be a couple of close sets played. That means this match is likely going to come down to a couple of key points in each set and I think the Japanese player can come through those moments to win a close one.
Grigor Dimitrov v Radek Stepanek: It had been a tough couple of months for Grigor Dimitrov as the season was coming to a close, but he has recovered to win the tournament in Stockholm last week and may have the confidence to come through this match against Radek Stepanek.
It is tough to back up a winning week on the Tour as tiredness from travelling and a lot of tennis can catch up to players, but Dimitrov is definitely on the up while Stepanek's best performances are reserved for the Davis Cup or for doubles tournaments.
However, Stepanek has the ability to get under the skin of opponents and it may take Dimitrov a little while to get used to what he is seeing on the other side of the net. I think Stepanek will want the younger player to feel like he doesn't know what is coming next from him, but Dimitrov has played some big matches this year and should be able to handle the expectation.
It will likely be another close match, but I like Dimitrov to come through and get a step closer to the potential match up with Roger Federer later in the week.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Tommy Haas has given himself a little chance to get through to the World Tour Finals in London by winning the tournament in Vienna last week, but he still needs other players to lose early and himself to get close to winning the last two tournaments of the season if he is to sneak in.
That means he can't afford to take this match easy, although the veteran will also find it tough to back up the success of last week. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough player to get a handle on as he can play some sublime tennis, but then suddenly start exploding in a rash of errors from out of nowhere.
Kohlschreiber hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last six weeks though and I think that will work against him in this one and I do like Haas' chances of coming through in two tough sets.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tuesday, 22 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 22nd)
This is the final week of the season for those players on the WTA Tour as the End of Year Championships begin in Istanbul on Tuesday, while the ATP Tour has reached the last exciting two weeks of the season where players try and book a place at the World Tour Finals.
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
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