I can only say it was more frustration on Wednesday as players got into strong positions only to let me down in unexpected fashion. Leonardo Mayer had a break advantage in the final set of his match with Teymuraz Gabashvili, but fell apart by losing four games in a row to drop the match.
Even worse has to be the manner in which Stan Wawrinka lost to Ivo Karlovic- he was up a set and a break before being pegged back, losing the tie-breaker and then dropping serve immediately in the final set to lose the match.
Pathetic to be honest with you.
Thankfully Rafael Nadal came out of a difficult position to win his match else it could have felt like a disastrous day, but I am frustrated that it didn't end up with a winning position on Wednesday considering how close at least three of the losing picks were to being successful.
The tournaments in Singapore, Basel and Valencia continue on Thursday when we get the first two Semi Finalists in the WTA Finals as well as setting up the Quarter Final line up for the two ATP events this week.
Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is a big match for both players in action this Thursday as both still have a chance of qualifying for the Semi Final despite losing their last match. Simona Halep can confirm her place in the Semi Finals if she can win this match in straight sets, while Agnieszka Radwanska would be able to do the same if she can win in straight sets and Flavia Pennetta is beaten in straight sets later in the day's play.
Any kind of win for Halep will give her a chance of progressing and that means her motivation should be high through this match, but I do wonder about Radwanska's mindset. If she is to drop a set, it means Radwanska is going to be out of the tournament even if she wins this match and that could see her check out.
Some might look at that as a chance for her to loosen up and let rip with nothing left to play for until January, but it has been a long season and she could just as easily tank away the match. Simona Halep has dominated Radwanska in recent matches too which should give her the mental edge and I definitely think she has more in her game to exploit the serve of the Pole than the other way around.
The last time they met saw Radwanska make an incredible start before Simona Halep took over but I think it might be a little more straight-forward for the World Number 2 this time around. After taking a tight first set, I look for Halep to pull away for a 64, 62 win.
Flavia Pennetta + 1.5 sets v Maria Sharapova: After winning just three games in her first match in Singapore, Flavia Pennetta would have been pleased to have her own destiny in her hands going into the final Group match. A straight sets win for Flavia Pennetta will be enough to get into the Semi Final and prolong her career by at least one more match, although she will know the exact permutations by the time she goes to the court.
For Maria Sharapova it looks a lot more straight-forward as winning a set should be enough to move into the Semi Final having won her first two matches with a 4-1 set advantage. There hasn't been too many signs of the injury that has kept Sharapova off the Tour over the last few months, but Flavia Pennetta has been something of a conundrum for the Russian.
Pennetta has won the last three matches between the players and all of their matches have been competitive with every single one needing a final set decider to determine the winner. I like the way the Italian battled back to beat Agnieszka Radwanska in her second Group game having been embarrassed by Simona Halep on Sunday, and Pennetta will give it her all with this potentially being her last match on the Tour.
The head to head with Sharapova will inspire her too and I like Pennetta's chances of taking at least a set in this one at a generous odds against quote. She has done that in every previous match against Sharapova and the mere fact she has won three in a row against the Russian should inspire a big performance from Pennetta.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Both players got through tough matches on Wednesday to move into the Second Round and I think Marin Cilic can back that up by beating Teymuraz Gabashvili and reaching yet another Quarter Final.
Out of the two players, Cilic was a little more in control of his win on Wednesday and it was Gabashvili who had to dig very deep to see off Leonardo Mayer. Of course Cilic had a longer week last week when winning the title in Moscow, but I don't envision fatigue being an issue for either player.
The more consistent player is Cilic and I think Gabashvili won't have so much luck holding serve as he did on Wednesday. The Croatian has to serve well too to make sure he doesn't give Gabashvili any kind of encouragement in this one, but I think Cilic has been playing well enough to do that and win this match.
Cilic should have the majority of break points in this match and I like him coming through 64, 63.
John Isner - 1.5 games v Jack Sock: Both John Isner and Jack Sock are going to be very happy with the way their 2015 seasons have panned out and both look set to finish in the top thirty of the World Rankings. The chances of John Isner reaching the World Tour Finals look to have gone now, but he will still want to end this season well and try and get into the World Top Ten.
Both men might be looking forward to the end of the season now, but Jack Sock did reach the Final in Stockholm last week and John Isner reached the Quarter Final in Beijing. That shows both are still very focused on the matches they are playing and I think this is going to be a close match decided by a point here and there.
John Isner has had the better of Jack Sock in the past as his serve is a little more solid all around and that has kept the scoreboard pressure on his compatriot. Sock will always give away at least one really sloppy game on serve and Isner is a great front runner that will be able to push away from him if he can get ahead here.
The speed of the courts should make this a close match that features a tie-breaker or two, but I give the edge to John Isner to find a break somewhere and come through this match 64, 67, 76.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This has always been a tournament that Roger Federer would place some real stock in having been a ball boy here in his younger days. Being back at home will only inspire Roger Federer all the more and he was a comfortable winner in the First Round.
He might have won all ten previous matches against Philipp Kohlschreiber, but there is no doubt that Federer will have a lot of respect for his opponent. These two are friends off court that have practiced together many times too so Federer will know all about the quality that Kohlschreiber can bring to the court.
However, Kohlschreiber has looked like he is slipping somewhat through the 2015 season and he is more likely to throw in a poor couple of service games than he was when at his very best. I think the German will be inspired going up against Federer and he will produce some quality tennis, but the problem will be trying to maintain that through the Second Round match.
Eventually you have to think Federer's quality will make the difference with a few returns and he will be too good as long as he serves effectively through the match. He was a little loose on that side in his win over Mikhail Kukushkin, but I think Federer will be more focused knowing the quality player he is facing and will come through this one 63, 64.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The Tour is a tough learning school for the young players that take it on and Andrey Rublev will look back at 2015 and take note of the lessons he learnt. The youngster has shown he has the talent to reach the very top of the men's game, but it will take time as he grows into his body and gets used to the weekly grind of the ATP Tour.
The younger players tend to have a little bit more fatigue in the final month of the season and I think Rublev will do well to keep up with Roberto Bautista Agut who is happy being on the court all day. The Spaniard did reach the Final in Moscow last week and had to dig deep to beat Nicolas Almagro in the First Round here which might mean some fatigue is in play, but I think his experience of managing the season Tour will give him the edge in this match.
Both players will likely have their chances to break serve, but I think Bautista Agut is the more consistent player at this stage of their career. I expect he will look to dig deep and grind down Rublev who had a solid First Round win to snap a four match losing run on the Tour.
Rublev has suffered some one-sided losses in recent weeks as the season winds down and I think Roberto Bautista Agut wins this one 64, 63 after wearing down his younger opponent.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta + 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-10, - 10.78 Units (30 Units Staked, - 35.93% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Valencia Picks. Show all posts
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Thursday, 29 October 2015
Tuesday, 27 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 27th)
The first matches in Group A and B at the WTA Championships are now in the books and there have been a couple of surprising results already, none more so than Maria Sharapova battling back from a set down to beat Agnieszka Radwanska.
Group A is back in action on Tuesday and it is a critical time for Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta with the losing player most likely out of the tournament depending on what happens in the other match on the same day. It could be an emotional day for Pennetta who announced she would be retiring at the end of this tournament as she is on the brink of an exit with a straight sets loss going to see her knocked out of the event.
The ATP events in Basel and Valencia will continue on Tuesday as the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played, but I can't go on without mentioning Rafael Nadal's win over Lukas Rosol despite finding himself just a couple of points away from losing that match.
Rosol has been a thorn in the side of Nadal over the years that began with a victory over the Spaniard at Wimbledon and he clearly relishes this match up. Two months ago I am convinced Nadal would have lost that match having not created a break point in the first two sets up until breaking Rosol in the second set when the latter was serving for the match.
That's another win that will build Nadal's confidence having had a couple of solid weeks in Beijing and Shanghai and rumours of his despise do seem greatly exaggerated. His Ranking is not going to improve drastically over the last couple of weeks of the season, but this will give him real belief to take into the 2016 season if he can finish off his last couple of tournaments in impressive form and the win for Nadal looks a huge one, especially if he can go on and have a strong week in Basel.
Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Games: This is a huge match for both of these players as they look to get back into a position where they can make a move to the Semi Finals. A defeat for Flavia Pennetta will likely mean her career is at an end, but I can see the Italian putting it all in after a very one-sided loss to Simona Halep last time out.
Matches between Agnieszka Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta has seen both players have their successes but the one glaring trend is how one-sided the matches tend to be. It might only be five wins to three in favour of Radwanska, but the last six matches have all seen only eighteen games or fewer needed to decide the winner.
I am not entirely sure why that is, but my feeling is that Pennetta's power will either break through the Radwanska defences consistently or she may make too many mistakes and allow the Pole to surge clear.
Picking a winner might actually be more difficult than the layers think, but Radwanska's big wins over Pennetta concerned me enough to steer clear of the handicap too. However, this might be too many games for the pair to surpass judging by recent matches between the two and it might be another one-sided win for one of the players that will put the winner in a position to advance to the Semi Finals.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: At this stage of a very long season, players have to search for the motivation to keep going on the Tour. Some will still be chasing a place in the World Tour Finals, others are just hoping to set a marker for the new 2016 season while others still are perhaps wanting to build confidence for a big chance to represent their nation.
The last of those might be the motivation for David Goffin who will be representing Belgium in the Davis Cup Final next month. That Final is played on the clay courts so Goffin might be using the last two weeks to simply put some wins together and give himself plenty of belief to take into the Davis Cup.
It won't be easy against Andreas Seppi who is a competitive character on the Tour, but the Italian has lost four straight matches on the Tour. That includes a straight sets loss to Goffin in Beijing and I think it will be tough for Seppi to turn that form around when he will be forced to work so hard to hold his serve.
The veteran Italian is a tough opponent to see off on his day, but the match up is one that Goffin should appreciate as he will have time to tee off on the Seppi serve which remains a weakness. I'd be surprised if Goffin has it as easy as he did in Beijing against Seppi when he lost just five games, but I still think he wins this one 64, 64 and moves into the Second Round.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: Whenever a player comes through the Qualifiers, I always think they have to be given plenty of respect as a couple of wins will give anyone some confidence. The dangerous Jerzy Janowicz is a player that thrives on confidence but this has been a difficult season for him and I do wonder if his two wins this week to get into the main draw is enough for him to turn that around.
The conditions in Basel should suit Janowicz whose best run on the main Tour has come on the indoor hard courts when reaching the Final at the Paris Masters. However, too many double faults and too many poor shot selections doesn't help the Pole's cause and a solid player like Philipp Kohlschreiber can take advantage.
The veteran might be coming down to the latter stages of his career, but Kohlschreiber has had a couple of solid runs in tournaments since the US Open. He looks good for a Seed at the Australian Open in January, but to ensure that happens Kohlschreiber would love another solid run in Basel.
Kohlschreiber has been in better recent form than Janowicz and he has won his last two matches against this opponent. Despite the fact Janowicz might be more in tune with the conditions, I think Kohlschreiber can be solid enough to look after his own serve and find a break on his way to a 76, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: There is no doubting that 2015 has been a disappointing season for Grigor Dimitrov who has also had to deal with personal and professional changes. The end of the season has to be used to ensure he will at least be Seeded at the Australian Open in January while also trying to build some momentum to take into the new season.
Being down at Number 28 in the World Rankings is a real surprise for Dimitrov fans, especially if you had told them that at the beginning of the season. He hasn't shown too much positive form since the US Open so it might be a surprise I am picking him to win by a comfortable margin in this First Round match.
However, Sergiy Stakhovsky is the kind of player that can produce some solid stuff, but is more likely to throw in a couple of terrible service games to go down without too much of a fight. The win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon will be his career highlight, but Stakhovsky has lost by wide margins to lesser players than Grigor Dimitrov since the US Open.
I remain a little concerned with the Bulgarian and his lack of form because that means confidence is dented and Dimitrov is more likely to throw a sloppy game in himself when it comes to the serve. Even with those doubts in my mind, I still think he is going to be too good for Stakhovsky and I will look for Dimitrov to win this one 64, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Neither one of these players can really point to too much recent productive form, although Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has the edge over Fernando Verdasco in that regards. It does feel like Fernando Verdasco is perhaps on an irreversible slide down the World Rankings these days, but he has dominated his compatriot and has won five straight matches against him including one match earlier this season.
The problem for Verdasco is that his inconsistencies on the court have now shifted in terms of producing wins- he has always been inconsistent, but Verdasco generally used to produce more good than bad, although it feels that has perhaps moved the other way these days.
That has seen Verdasco lose some tight matches in the last few months rather than winning those to maintain his Ranking and would be a concern in backing him in this First Round match. However, I think Garcia-Lopez has to overcome a mental hurdle when he takes on Verdasco which can be difficult against a player from the same nation.
Garcia-Lopez has had some disappointing losses since reaching the Final in Shenzhen and I think Verdasco has a little more out of the serve that can help him through this one. It will likely need three sets for Verdasco to get it done, but I like his chances of coming through 63, 36, 63 and earn an important win.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Total Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)
Group A is back in action on Tuesday and it is a critical time for Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta with the losing player most likely out of the tournament depending on what happens in the other match on the same day. It could be an emotional day for Pennetta who announced she would be retiring at the end of this tournament as she is on the brink of an exit with a straight sets loss going to see her knocked out of the event.
The ATP events in Basel and Valencia will continue on Tuesday as the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played, but I can't go on without mentioning Rafael Nadal's win over Lukas Rosol despite finding himself just a couple of points away from losing that match.
Rosol has been a thorn in the side of Nadal over the years that began with a victory over the Spaniard at Wimbledon and he clearly relishes this match up. Two months ago I am convinced Nadal would have lost that match having not created a break point in the first two sets up until breaking Rosol in the second set when the latter was serving for the match.
That's another win that will build Nadal's confidence having had a couple of solid weeks in Beijing and Shanghai and rumours of his despise do seem greatly exaggerated. His Ranking is not going to improve drastically over the last couple of weeks of the season, but this will give him real belief to take into the 2016 season if he can finish off his last couple of tournaments in impressive form and the win for Nadal looks a huge one, especially if he can go on and have a strong week in Basel.
Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Games: This is a huge match for both of these players as they look to get back into a position where they can make a move to the Semi Finals. A defeat for Flavia Pennetta will likely mean her career is at an end, but I can see the Italian putting it all in after a very one-sided loss to Simona Halep last time out.
Matches between Agnieszka Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta has seen both players have their successes but the one glaring trend is how one-sided the matches tend to be. It might only be five wins to three in favour of Radwanska, but the last six matches have all seen only eighteen games or fewer needed to decide the winner.
I am not entirely sure why that is, but my feeling is that Pennetta's power will either break through the Radwanska defences consistently or she may make too many mistakes and allow the Pole to surge clear.
Picking a winner might actually be more difficult than the layers think, but Radwanska's big wins over Pennetta concerned me enough to steer clear of the handicap too. However, this might be too many games for the pair to surpass judging by recent matches between the two and it might be another one-sided win for one of the players that will put the winner in a position to advance to the Semi Finals.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: At this stage of a very long season, players have to search for the motivation to keep going on the Tour. Some will still be chasing a place in the World Tour Finals, others are just hoping to set a marker for the new 2016 season while others still are perhaps wanting to build confidence for a big chance to represent their nation.
The last of those might be the motivation for David Goffin who will be representing Belgium in the Davis Cup Final next month. That Final is played on the clay courts so Goffin might be using the last two weeks to simply put some wins together and give himself plenty of belief to take into the Davis Cup.
It won't be easy against Andreas Seppi who is a competitive character on the Tour, but the Italian has lost four straight matches on the Tour. That includes a straight sets loss to Goffin in Beijing and I think it will be tough for Seppi to turn that form around when he will be forced to work so hard to hold his serve.
The veteran Italian is a tough opponent to see off on his day, but the match up is one that Goffin should appreciate as he will have time to tee off on the Seppi serve which remains a weakness. I'd be surprised if Goffin has it as easy as he did in Beijing against Seppi when he lost just five games, but I still think he wins this one 64, 64 and moves into the Second Round.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: Whenever a player comes through the Qualifiers, I always think they have to be given plenty of respect as a couple of wins will give anyone some confidence. The dangerous Jerzy Janowicz is a player that thrives on confidence but this has been a difficult season for him and I do wonder if his two wins this week to get into the main draw is enough for him to turn that around.
The conditions in Basel should suit Janowicz whose best run on the main Tour has come on the indoor hard courts when reaching the Final at the Paris Masters. However, too many double faults and too many poor shot selections doesn't help the Pole's cause and a solid player like Philipp Kohlschreiber can take advantage.
The veteran might be coming down to the latter stages of his career, but Kohlschreiber has had a couple of solid runs in tournaments since the US Open. He looks good for a Seed at the Australian Open in January, but to ensure that happens Kohlschreiber would love another solid run in Basel.
Kohlschreiber has been in better recent form than Janowicz and he has won his last two matches against this opponent. Despite the fact Janowicz might be more in tune with the conditions, I think Kohlschreiber can be solid enough to look after his own serve and find a break on his way to a 76, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: There is no doubting that 2015 has been a disappointing season for Grigor Dimitrov who has also had to deal with personal and professional changes. The end of the season has to be used to ensure he will at least be Seeded at the Australian Open in January while also trying to build some momentum to take into the new season.
Being down at Number 28 in the World Rankings is a real surprise for Dimitrov fans, especially if you had told them that at the beginning of the season. He hasn't shown too much positive form since the US Open so it might be a surprise I am picking him to win by a comfortable margin in this First Round match.
However, Sergiy Stakhovsky is the kind of player that can produce some solid stuff, but is more likely to throw in a couple of terrible service games to go down without too much of a fight. The win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon will be his career highlight, but Stakhovsky has lost by wide margins to lesser players than Grigor Dimitrov since the US Open.
I remain a little concerned with the Bulgarian and his lack of form because that means confidence is dented and Dimitrov is more likely to throw a sloppy game in himself when it comes to the serve. Even with those doubts in my mind, I still think he is going to be too good for Stakhovsky and I will look for Dimitrov to win this one 64, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Neither one of these players can really point to too much recent productive form, although Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has the edge over Fernando Verdasco in that regards. It does feel like Fernando Verdasco is perhaps on an irreversible slide down the World Rankings these days, but he has dominated his compatriot and has won five straight matches against him including one match earlier this season.
The problem for Verdasco is that his inconsistencies on the court have now shifted in terms of producing wins- he has always been inconsistent, but Verdasco generally used to produce more good than bad, although it feels that has perhaps moved the other way these days.
That has seen Verdasco lose some tight matches in the last few months rather than winning those to maintain his Ranking and would be a concern in backing him in this First Round match. However, I think Garcia-Lopez has to overcome a mental hurdle when he takes on Verdasco which can be difficult against a player from the same nation.
Garcia-Lopez has had some disappointing losses since reaching the Final in Shenzhen and I think Verdasco has a little more out of the serve that can help him through this one. It will likely need three sets for Verdasco to get it done, but I like his chances of coming through 63, 36, 63 and earn an important win.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska-Flavia Pennetta Under 20.5 Total Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)
Monday, 26 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 26th)
The WTA Tour Finals began on Sunday, but the rest of the tournaments that are being played this week begin their main draw matches on Monday in both Basel and Valencia. The tennis season is winding down and I have accepted that this is comfortably the worst season for the picks with the last three months being completely poor and ruining what had been a strong season to that point.
I will make some adjustments in the off-season to make sure that I won't have that happen again, but I also don't want to change too much considering it looked like being a very strong season up until the middle of July.
There aren't too many matches scheduled for Monday in the main draws of the three events being played this week, but I do have two picks from the matches taking place.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Lucie Safarova: This would easily be the biggest title of Garbine Muguruza's career if she can win the WTA Tour Finals as one of the favourites this week. She has been in decent form of late having won the title in Beijing as well as reaching the Final in Wuhan and Muguruza should be confident heading to Singapore.
A lot more confident than Lucie Safarova who has lost four matches in a row and has been suffering with an illness in the later portion of the season. I really like the tennis that Safarova has produced over the last eighteen months, but she would need to be at her best to get the better of Muguruza for the second time this season following a straight sets win at the French Open.
The serve can be very effective and that makes Safarova dangerous, but she might not have the same level of fitness to maintain that and it will be difficult for her to beat an in-form Muguruza.
My one concern with a number like this is the fact that Muguruza can be a little inconsistent within a single match and she plays a high-risk brand of tennis that can suddenly produce a lot of mistakes. If she gives Safarova a helping hand with unforced errors, Muguruza could be dragged into a real battle in this opening Group game.
However, Safarova's illness issues are a bigger concern and she has been beaten comfortably in her recent matches and I think Muguruza battles to a 63, 64 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: There are just two weeks left of the regular season on the ATP Tour and so there might be a lack of motivation for some players in these final weeks. There are plenty of World Ranking points up for grabs, but someone like Santiago Giraldo will have to dig deep considering he has lost his last couple of matches since being forced out of a match in Kuala Lumper.
At least Vasek Pospisil has been putting together some wins of late even if this season has been a mixed bag for the Canadian on the Singles Tour. A Quarter Final run in Kuala Lumper was followed by defeats to Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet during the remainder of the Asian swing, but the wins he has had will give him confidence to move into the Second Round in Valencia.
The Pospisil serve can be a big weapon, but he is not as dominant behind that shot as he potentially could be. However Pospisil is a better returner than many men of his size and it has been part of the reason he has won his three previous matches against Giraldo who will produce a sloppy service game at least once per set.
If the Canadian can take the chances that will likely come his way, I think he makes it four in a row and covers this kind of spread for the fourth straight time too. Pospisil has dropped only two sets from the nine he has competed against Giraldo and both of those came in tie-breakers, but I think he comes through with a sold 75, 64 win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Weekly Final: 8-8, - 2.20 Units (32 Units Staked, - 6.88% Yield)
Season 2015: - 7.21 Units (1724 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I will make some adjustments in the off-season to make sure that I won't have that happen again, but I also don't want to change too much considering it looked like being a very strong season up until the middle of July.
There aren't too many matches scheduled for Monday in the main draws of the three events being played this week, but I do have two picks from the matches taking place.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Lucie Safarova: This would easily be the biggest title of Garbine Muguruza's career if she can win the WTA Tour Finals as one of the favourites this week. She has been in decent form of late having won the title in Beijing as well as reaching the Final in Wuhan and Muguruza should be confident heading to Singapore.
A lot more confident than Lucie Safarova who has lost four matches in a row and has been suffering with an illness in the later portion of the season. I really like the tennis that Safarova has produced over the last eighteen months, but she would need to be at her best to get the better of Muguruza for the second time this season following a straight sets win at the French Open.
The serve can be very effective and that makes Safarova dangerous, but she might not have the same level of fitness to maintain that and it will be difficult for her to beat an in-form Muguruza.
My one concern with a number like this is the fact that Muguruza can be a little inconsistent within a single match and she plays a high-risk brand of tennis that can suddenly produce a lot of mistakes. If she gives Safarova a helping hand with unforced errors, Muguruza could be dragged into a real battle in this opening Group game.
However, Safarova's illness issues are a bigger concern and she has been beaten comfortably in her recent matches and I think Muguruza battles to a 63, 64 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: There are just two weeks left of the regular season on the ATP Tour and so there might be a lack of motivation for some players in these final weeks. There are plenty of World Ranking points up for grabs, but someone like Santiago Giraldo will have to dig deep considering he has lost his last couple of matches since being forced out of a match in Kuala Lumper.
At least Vasek Pospisil has been putting together some wins of late even if this season has been a mixed bag for the Canadian on the Singles Tour. A Quarter Final run in Kuala Lumper was followed by defeats to Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet during the remainder of the Asian swing, but the wins he has had will give him confidence to move into the Second Round in Valencia.
The Pospisil serve can be a big weapon, but he is not as dominant behind that shot as he potentially could be. However Pospisil is a better returner than many men of his size and it has been part of the reason he has won his three previous matches against Giraldo who will produce a sloppy service game at least once per set.
If the Canadian can take the chances that will likely come his way, I think he makes it four in a row and covers this kind of spread for the fourth straight time too. Pospisil has dropped only two sets from the nine he has competed against Giraldo and both of those came in tie-breakers, but I think he comes through with a sold 75, 64 win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Weekly Final: 8-8, - 2.20 Units (32 Units Staked, - 6.88% Yield)
Season 2015: - 7.21 Units (1724 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 25 October 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (October 25th)
I was beginning to think Rafael Nadal was going to at least finish his season with a performance at the O2 Arena in the World Tour Finals, but he has decided to end his 2014 season after being beaten in Basel.
That shouldn't really be a surprise as it was clear on Friday that Nadal was far from his usual self and he has made it clear that he wants a full recovery in time for the 2015 season which begins in two months time. Nadal will get his back looked at which caused some many problems all those months ago at the Australian Open as well as going in for surgery on his appendix, but the feeling is that he will have enough time to be more than ready for the Australian Open.
Nadal's withdrawal means an extra place as opened up at the Tour Finals and there are four places up for grabs going into the last ten days of the regular Tour. Kei Nishikori is almost certainly to have one of those which means Tomas Berdych, Andy Murray, David Ferrer and Milos Raonic are fighting for the remaining three places.
Murray takes on Ferrer in the Semi Final in Valencia on Saturday and the winner of that is likely to be the sixth player booking their place in London, while Berdych looks to have enough points already with Paris still to be played. Milos Raonic has faltered the most of these players over the last few weeks and he will need a big week in Paris to overcome one of the other three players I mentioned, while Grigor Dimitrov's Quarter Final loss in Basel is likely going to cost him.
Those issues will be cleared up over the next few days, but the WTA Tour has seen their Finals reach the Semi Finals which are to be played on Saturday. Serena Williams somehow managed to move through and she will be the favourite to win the tournament now, especially if she can beat Caroline Wozniacki in that Semi Final which I do believe she can do.
Agnieszka Radwanska owes Wozniacki a lot for her place in the Semi Final as her close friend beat Petra Kvitova in straight sets on Friday even with her place already booked in the next stage. Radwanska takes on Simona Halep in a tough second Semi Final, but I think the Romanian has been playing well enough to reach the Final.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: These two players are very close off the court, but that didn't stop Serena Williams obliterating Caroline Wozniacki in the Final of the US Open after a couple of very close matches between them during the summer hard court swing.
Serena Williams has now won six matches in a row against Wozniacki and she has to be feeling much better having survived in the tournament despite and absolutely awful performance in her loss to Simona Halep. She did bounce back to dismiss a disinterested Eugenie Bouchard and I think Williams will need to play as well as she has at any point this week if she is to see off Wozniacki.
There seems to be a new confidence in the way Wozniacki has been playing and it has certainly impressed me- I have been a critic of Wozniacki in the past, but I actually think she is playing better than when she was World Number 1 with more aggression leading to more positive results.
The Dane will need to be aggressive if she is going to win this match, but she also has to find the balance between attacking and defending considering how much more power Williams possesses. If Wozniacki can extract the unforced errors from Serena, she can cause the upset, but I don't imagine the World Number 1 playing as poorly as she did against Halep again this week and I like her to find a 75, 64 win in this Semi Final.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: It must be a strange situation for both of these players who are coming into the match off of losses- Agnieszka Radwanska can't have played too many tournaments where she has lost twice yet still has the chance to win a title, while Simona Halep was beaten in three sets by Ana Ivanovic in what became a dead rubber after the Romanian took the second set.
I was surprised Halep put in as much of an effort to win that match with Ivanovic as she did as she had a real chance to earn some rest without putting in a full effort, but it is clear her game relies on the rhythm that means she can't take a moment off.
Even after that tough match, Halep should still be in better physical condition than Radwanska who has played two long matches in a row and has to be a little short of confidence that comes from back to back losses. She might look at this as a chance to play with 'house money', but Radwanska wasn't in great form to end the season and Halep won't make a host of unforced errors that Petra Kvitova did in the Pole's only win in the Group.
These two players have split their two previous matches one each earlier this season, but I like Halep's consistency and added power to be too much for Radwanska in a 63, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: Over the last month, David Ferrer and Andy Murray have split two matches with one win apiece and the winner of this one is likely to take the title in Valencia on Sunday and come very close to booking a place in the World Tour Finals.
They have both shown their form at different times this week, but I think the edge should go to Andy Murray who has the bigger first serve and can earn a few 'cheaper' points than Ferrer who will have to work for everything he gets.
With Rafael Nadal pulling out of the Tour Finals, there is slightly less pressure on both of these players with that extra place opened up. However, I think Ferrer will likely be the slightly happier with how the draw has panned out in Paris and Murray might be more desperate for the points on offer this week.
Expect long drawn out rallies as has been the case in both matches over the last month, but I think Murray can win the second match in a row against Ferrer and move into the Final behind a 46, 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-13, - 9.78 Units (42 Units Staked, - 23.29% Yield)
That shouldn't really be a surprise as it was clear on Friday that Nadal was far from his usual self and he has made it clear that he wants a full recovery in time for the 2015 season which begins in two months time. Nadal will get his back looked at which caused some many problems all those months ago at the Australian Open as well as going in for surgery on his appendix, but the feeling is that he will have enough time to be more than ready for the Australian Open.
Nadal's withdrawal means an extra place as opened up at the Tour Finals and there are four places up for grabs going into the last ten days of the regular Tour. Kei Nishikori is almost certainly to have one of those which means Tomas Berdych, Andy Murray, David Ferrer and Milos Raonic are fighting for the remaining three places.
Murray takes on Ferrer in the Semi Final in Valencia on Saturday and the winner of that is likely to be the sixth player booking their place in London, while Berdych looks to have enough points already with Paris still to be played. Milos Raonic has faltered the most of these players over the last few weeks and he will need a big week in Paris to overcome one of the other three players I mentioned, while Grigor Dimitrov's Quarter Final loss in Basel is likely going to cost him.
Those issues will be cleared up over the next few days, but the WTA Tour has seen their Finals reach the Semi Finals which are to be played on Saturday. Serena Williams somehow managed to move through and she will be the favourite to win the tournament now, especially if she can beat Caroline Wozniacki in that Semi Final which I do believe she can do.
Agnieszka Radwanska owes Wozniacki a lot for her place in the Semi Final as her close friend beat Petra Kvitova in straight sets on Friday even with her place already booked in the next stage. Radwanska takes on Simona Halep in a tough second Semi Final, but I think the Romanian has been playing well enough to reach the Final.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: These two players are very close off the court, but that didn't stop Serena Williams obliterating Caroline Wozniacki in the Final of the US Open after a couple of very close matches between them during the summer hard court swing.
Serena Williams has now won six matches in a row against Wozniacki and she has to be feeling much better having survived in the tournament despite and absolutely awful performance in her loss to Simona Halep. She did bounce back to dismiss a disinterested Eugenie Bouchard and I think Williams will need to play as well as she has at any point this week if she is to see off Wozniacki.
There seems to be a new confidence in the way Wozniacki has been playing and it has certainly impressed me- I have been a critic of Wozniacki in the past, but I actually think she is playing better than when she was World Number 1 with more aggression leading to more positive results.
The Dane will need to be aggressive if she is going to win this match, but she also has to find the balance between attacking and defending considering how much more power Williams possesses. If Wozniacki can extract the unforced errors from Serena, she can cause the upset, but I don't imagine the World Number 1 playing as poorly as she did against Halep again this week and I like her to find a 75, 64 win in this Semi Final.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: It must be a strange situation for both of these players who are coming into the match off of losses- Agnieszka Radwanska can't have played too many tournaments where she has lost twice yet still has the chance to win a title, while Simona Halep was beaten in three sets by Ana Ivanovic in what became a dead rubber after the Romanian took the second set.
I was surprised Halep put in as much of an effort to win that match with Ivanovic as she did as she had a real chance to earn some rest without putting in a full effort, but it is clear her game relies on the rhythm that means she can't take a moment off.
Even after that tough match, Halep should still be in better physical condition than Radwanska who has played two long matches in a row and has to be a little short of confidence that comes from back to back losses. She might look at this as a chance to play with 'house money', but Radwanska wasn't in great form to end the season and Halep won't make a host of unforced errors that Petra Kvitova did in the Pole's only win in the Group.
These two players have split their two previous matches one each earlier this season, but I like Halep's consistency and added power to be too much for Radwanska in a 63, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: Over the last month, David Ferrer and Andy Murray have split two matches with one win apiece and the winner of this one is likely to take the title in Valencia on Sunday and come very close to booking a place in the World Tour Finals.
They have both shown their form at different times this week, but I think the edge should go to Andy Murray who has the bigger first serve and can earn a few 'cheaper' points than Ferrer who will have to work for everything he gets.
With Rafael Nadal pulling out of the Tour Finals, there is slightly less pressure on both of these players with that extra place opened up. However, I think Ferrer will likely be the slightly happier with how the draw has panned out in Paris and Murray might be more desperate for the points on offer this week.
Expect long drawn out rallies as has been the case in both matches over the last month, but I think Murray can win the second match in a row against Ferrer and move into the Final behind a 46, 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-13, - 9.78 Units (42 Units Staked, - 23.29% Yield)
Friday, 24 October 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (October 24th)
We have reached the Quarter Finals of the two ATP tournaments that are being played this week and it looks like Grigor Dimitrov is going to become the latest player to fall out of contention in the Race to London.
That is nothing against Dimitrov who is still involved, but the likes of Milos Raonic, David Ferrer and Andy Murray have enough points in hand and haven't been knocked out this week which suggests the Bulgarian will need a lot to go in his favour for him to make the Tour Finals. He'll probably prefer to finish outside the top 10 so he can have a break and not go to London as an alternate too and that might be the situation he finds himself in with just one tournament to go after this one.
Of course, Dimitrov can win the the title this week and next week in Paris to prove me wrong, but I think that is increasingly unlikely and I believe both Murray and Ferrer are playing well enough to stay in front of a player that will be looking to play in the Tour Finals for years to come.
We will also determine the final four of the WTA Finals and it has highlighted why the Round Robin format was not used for too long on the ATP Tour- a few years ago some of the smaller tournaments attempted to begin their event with Groups, but it makes it much more likely that players will tank matches and I think the final round of matches in the WTA Finals look a little dangerous for that to happen.
A couple of years ago Victoria Azarenka was criticised for not trying in a dead rubber and a couple of players on Friday may actually benefit from losing a match.
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Benjamin Becker: I backed Kenny De Schepper to keep it close against Ivo Karlovic on Thursday and I think I would have been very much on the right lines if he had taken his only break point opportunity in the first set.
However, Karlovic was comfortably the best player on the court and he fully deserved his win and I do think he has every chance of backing that up with another win on Friday in this Quarter Final.
Karlovic has lost the most recent match against Benjamin Becker, but he had previously won 6 in a row against the German and I have to say I have been impressed that the big serving Croatian has found as many breaks of serve as he has in recent weeks.
Scoreboard pressure may play a part in that and I think that could be the case in this Quarter Final as Karlovic moves through with a 76, 64 win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: Borna Coric has taken advantage of his Wild Card to reach a Quarter Final in Basel as he has recorded two impressive wins over players ranked much higher than he is.
The Croatian will be confident, but will now be facing a huge challenge in Rafael Nadal who has dismissed his first two opponents while giving up just 6 games. You can't really tell how healthy Nadal is feeling with Simone Bolelli and Pierre-Hugues Herbert very much out of his league, but it also suggests Coric will have a tough afternoon.
A lack of knowledge about Coric may give the youngster a chance to surprise a little, but Nadal plays every point so hard that he is likely to wear down his opponent and it might be a bit of a tennis lesson for the young player.
Nadal has been brutally efficient so far this week and I think he will prove too good in a 64, 62 win.
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: Jeremy Chardy made it hard work for my pick on him to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov as he took the break advantage in all three sets played, but had to come from one set down to win the match.
It was a solid win for the Frenchman, but I am hoping he didn't leave everything out on the court ahead of this Quarter Final against one of the Spanish contingent left in the tournament in Valencia.
Pablo Carreno Busta has had a couple of surprising wins already this week and it would be something of a surprise if he can put together another solid performance on a surface that isn't the best for his game. He did reach the Quarter Final here in Valencia last season and the feeling is that Chardy's first serve is the more effective weapon and could determine the outcome of the match.
The first set could be another tight one, but I expect Chardy to put his stamp on the match eventually and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: Regardless of what happens in the first match in this Group, Caroline Wozniacki is in a strong position to qualify for the Semi Finals after winning her first two matches in straight sets.
In fact, unless Wozniacki's friend Agnieszka Radwanska wins in straight sets against Maria Sharapova, she will definitely be through to the Semi Final regardless of her result in this match and I am not sure where she will find the motivation to really push for the win.
Winning the Group might not be the best decision as there is a strong chance that player will have to face Serena Williams who will finish second in the Red Group in three out of four possible outcomes of the Simona Halep-Ana Ivanovic match. A straight sets win for Petra Kvitova would mean Wozniacki is second in the White Group unless the aforementioned scenario where Radwanska beats Sharapova in straight sets occurs.
Kvitova played well enough against Sharapova to think she would give a strong account of herself even if Wozniacki was fully motivated, but this seems a good chance to back the Wimbledon Champion in a match where her opponent might already be looking to conserve energy for the business end of the tournament.
Ana Ivanovic v Simona Halep: I mentioned that Serena Williams will go through in three out of four possible outcomes from this match with the one exception being a straight sets win for Ana Ivanovic against the in-form Simona Halep.
That form and momentum is very high for the Romanian and it is going to be interesting to see how she approaches this match as she will know exactly who she can play in the next round by finishing first or second in the Group. An easy straight sets win for Ivanovic will give the Serb top spot in the Red Group, while anything competitive will give Halep the edge and she is in the fortunate position of determining that depending on how much she puts into this match.
I hate to think of sports stars as machines- there is little doubt to me that Halep losing this match in straight sets is the best thing for her if she wants to win this tournament. She has nothing to prove by beating Serena Williams in the Final, but everything to lose to give the American a 'second shot' at her later in the event.
I don't think Halep will come out 'wanting' to lose, but I'd be surprised if there is a huge effort to fight in the match with a Semi Final to come on Saturday and her position at the top of the Group virtually secured. My concern would be that Halep wants to stay mentally competitive and wins a set, which eliminates Ivanovic even if she wins in three sets, and that might see the Serb decide to check out of the match.
MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-10, - 7.82 Units (32 Units Staked, - 24.43% Yield)
That is nothing against Dimitrov who is still involved, but the likes of Milos Raonic, David Ferrer and Andy Murray have enough points in hand and haven't been knocked out this week which suggests the Bulgarian will need a lot to go in his favour for him to make the Tour Finals. He'll probably prefer to finish outside the top 10 so he can have a break and not go to London as an alternate too and that might be the situation he finds himself in with just one tournament to go after this one.
Of course, Dimitrov can win the the title this week and next week in Paris to prove me wrong, but I think that is increasingly unlikely and I believe both Murray and Ferrer are playing well enough to stay in front of a player that will be looking to play in the Tour Finals for years to come.
We will also determine the final four of the WTA Finals and it has highlighted why the Round Robin format was not used for too long on the ATP Tour- a few years ago some of the smaller tournaments attempted to begin their event with Groups, but it makes it much more likely that players will tank matches and I think the final round of matches in the WTA Finals look a little dangerous for that to happen.
A couple of years ago Victoria Azarenka was criticised for not trying in a dead rubber and a couple of players on Friday may actually benefit from losing a match.
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Benjamin Becker: I backed Kenny De Schepper to keep it close against Ivo Karlovic on Thursday and I think I would have been very much on the right lines if he had taken his only break point opportunity in the first set.
However, Karlovic was comfortably the best player on the court and he fully deserved his win and I do think he has every chance of backing that up with another win on Friday in this Quarter Final.
Karlovic has lost the most recent match against Benjamin Becker, but he had previously won 6 in a row against the German and I have to say I have been impressed that the big serving Croatian has found as many breaks of serve as he has in recent weeks.
Scoreboard pressure may play a part in that and I think that could be the case in this Quarter Final as Karlovic moves through with a 76, 64 win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: Borna Coric has taken advantage of his Wild Card to reach a Quarter Final in Basel as he has recorded two impressive wins over players ranked much higher than he is.
The Croatian will be confident, but will now be facing a huge challenge in Rafael Nadal who has dismissed his first two opponents while giving up just 6 games. You can't really tell how healthy Nadal is feeling with Simone Bolelli and Pierre-Hugues Herbert very much out of his league, but it also suggests Coric will have a tough afternoon.
A lack of knowledge about Coric may give the youngster a chance to surprise a little, but Nadal plays every point so hard that he is likely to wear down his opponent and it might be a bit of a tennis lesson for the young player.
Nadal has been brutally efficient so far this week and I think he will prove too good in a 64, 62 win.
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: Jeremy Chardy made it hard work for my pick on him to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov as he took the break advantage in all three sets played, but had to come from one set down to win the match.
It was a solid win for the Frenchman, but I am hoping he didn't leave everything out on the court ahead of this Quarter Final against one of the Spanish contingent left in the tournament in Valencia.
Pablo Carreno Busta has had a couple of surprising wins already this week and it would be something of a surprise if he can put together another solid performance on a surface that isn't the best for his game. He did reach the Quarter Final here in Valencia last season and the feeling is that Chardy's first serve is the more effective weapon and could determine the outcome of the match.
The first set could be another tight one, but I expect Chardy to put his stamp on the match eventually and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: Regardless of what happens in the first match in this Group, Caroline Wozniacki is in a strong position to qualify for the Semi Finals after winning her first two matches in straight sets.
In fact, unless Wozniacki's friend Agnieszka Radwanska wins in straight sets against Maria Sharapova, she will definitely be through to the Semi Final regardless of her result in this match and I am not sure where she will find the motivation to really push for the win.
Winning the Group might not be the best decision as there is a strong chance that player will have to face Serena Williams who will finish second in the Red Group in three out of four possible outcomes of the Simona Halep-Ana Ivanovic match. A straight sets win for Petra Kvitova would mean Wozniacki is second in the White Group unless the aforementioned scenario where Radwanska beats Sharapova in straight sets occurs.
Kvitova played well enough against Sharapova to think she would give a strong account of herself even if Wozniacki was fully motivated, but this seems a good chance to back the Wimbledon Champion in a match where her opponent might already be looking to conserve energy for the business end of the tournament.
Ana Ivanovic v Simona Halep: I mentioned that Serena Williams will go through in three out of four possible outcomes from this match with the one exception being a straight sets win for Ana Ivanovic against the in-form Simona Halep.
That form and momentum is very high for the Romanian and it is going to be interesting to see how she approaches this match as she will know exactly who she can play in the next round by finishing first or second in the Group. An easy straight sets win for Ivanovic will give the Serb top spot in the Red Group, while anything competitive will give Halep the edge and she is in the fortunate position of determining that depending on how much she puts into this match.
I hate to think of sports stars as machines- there is little doubt to me that Halep losing this match in straight sets is the best thing for her if she wants to win this tournament. She has nothing to prove by beating Serena Williams in the Final, but everything to lose to give the American a 'second shot' at her later in the event.
I don't think Halep will come out 'wanting' to lose, but I'd be surprised if there is a huge effort to fight in the match with a Semi Final to come on Saturday and her position at the top of the Group virtually secured. My concern would be that Halep wants to stay mentally competitive and wins a set, which eliminates Ivanovic even if she wins in three sets, and that might see the Serb decide to check out of the match.
MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-10, - 7.82 Units (32 Units Staked, - 24.43% Yield)
Thursday, 23 October 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (October 23rd)
If someone had told me that the match had finished 60, 62, there would have been absolutely no way I would have believed that Simona Halep was the victor over Serena Williams- I even had to look at the score twice again to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong as the World Number 1 was given one of her biggest beatings on a tennis court.
That result hasn't ended Williams' participation at the WTA Finals, but it does mean she needs to beat Eugenie Bouchard, preferably in straight sets, and hope Simona Halep can give Ana Ivanovic either a competitive match that goes into three sets or the Romanian can simply win the match and the Group.
With the Race to London taking centre stage on the ATP Tour, Tomas Berdych was the only player that has yet to secure his place in the Tour Finals that was beaten in competition which could have opened the door for the likes of Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov to make up some points on him if not overtake him.
With Rafael Nadal looking pretty good in Basel and Novak Djokovic admitting he is preparing for Paris after his wife gave birth to a baby boy, the top eight players may be ready to take their place in London after all. That means every point is going to matter in the bid to sow up those places with just two weeks to go until we know the final line up in London for the event which will begin on November 9th.
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: The winner of this match will likely have booked their place in the Semi Final of the WTA Finals and I think the Dane Caroline Wozniacki is going to have a little bit too much for Agnieszka Radwanska.
Of course one of the concerns is that Wozniacki had to dig really deep within herself to beat Maria Sharapova just two days ago and it would be interesting to see if she has left something on the court.
Agnieszka Radwanska had a much easier time in her win over Petra Kvitova, which was something of a surprise considering Radwanska's late season form.
Both players produce a similar style of tennis which should make this another competitive match, but I think Wozniacki is able to back up her win over Radwanska from the Cincinnati event, their only match of the year. That ended Wozniacki's three match losing run in the head to head and I think Wozniacki has the slightly better serve which could prove to be a difference maker.
I won't be that surprised if we did see a final set decider for the first time this week, but Wozniacki might just have the edge to come through with a 75, 46, 63 win.
Jeremy Chardy v Alexandr Dolgopolov: This Second Round match comes between two players who will be meeting for the fourth time this season as Alexandr Dolgopolov looks to level the head to head with Jeremy Chardy having won the last match between them.
Chardy is a player that can frustrate me as he can make a rash of errors to lose matches comprehensively, but I am surprised he has been set as the underdog in this match. It seems to be an overreaction to Dolgopolov's dismantling of Gilles Simon in the First Round, especially as that was his first win since coming back from surgery.
The indoor hard courts should really aid both of these players you would feel as they have decent first serves, but neither Chardy nor Dolgopolov have had a sustained success on the surface.
The Frenchman has been in better form of the two players of late with more wins to his name and I am interested to see how Dolgopolov will try to back up his first win in months with another match so soon after that one. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go the distance with both players sometimes very erratic on the court, but I think the underdog can come through with a win.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Coming through the qualifiers and winning a match on the main draw should have given Thomaz Bellucci some confidence ahead of this Second Round match against Roberto Bautista Agut and may also have eased a couple of my concerns in backing the Spaniard.
Bautista Agut was the far better player when seeing off Santiago Giraldo on Wednesday, but he had a long week in Moscow last week that saw him come a little short when losing in the Final. However, he had a couple of days to recover and Bellucci has played more tennis in the last few days than Bautista Agut so tiredness may affect the Brazilian more in this match.
The lefty serve will take some reading for Bautista Agut, but he can frustrate opponents with his defence as he did to Giraldo and I can see the same fate eventually befalling Bellucci. There are times I have watched Bellucci and been impressed with the talent he possesses, but Bautista Agut is having a great season and he looks like a man determined to end 2014 in the right way.
If Bautista Agut is protecting his serve as well as he did on Wednesday, he could wear down Bellucci in this one and eventually come through 75, 64.
Kenny De Schepper + 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: This isn't a lot of games to take to the bank, but Kenny De Schepper has a big enough serve to force a couple of tie-breaks even if he doesn't quite have enough to see off Ivo Karlovic. The veteran Karlovic has been playing well in recent weeks and has had a big 2014 season to move back into the top 32 in the World Rankings, but he doesn't get a lot of joy when it comes to return games and is still heavily reliant on his own big serve.
This match is likely to have a lot of quick games with both players much more effective when having the first strike of their serve and I think break points will come at a premium. It might take just one break for Karlovic for him to cover this number, but the opposite view is that one break for De Schepper may make it almost impossible for Karlovic to do that.
When they met a couple of years ago, it was no surprise that Karlovic needed two tie-breakers to win the match and De Schepper will have some confidence having won a couple of qualifiers to reach this Second Round match.
I'll be looking for De Schepper to use that confidence to keep this match very close and will take the games on offer.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Denis Istomin: The lure of finishing with the year end World Number 1 position is keeping Roger Federer focused for the final three weeks of the Tour ahead of his first appearance in the Davis Cup Final.
He was brutal in dismissing Gilles Muller in the First Round in Basel, but Denis Istomin showed twelve months ago that he can be a decent indoor hard court player when pushing Federer in a three set loss.
That was about as tough as Istomin has ever made it for Federer and my criticism of the Uzbekistan player is that he doesn't seem to give himself a real shot of beating the top players on the Tour. I am not convinced he believes he can win these kinds of matches and I think making it as competitive as last season would constitute a success for him.
I think Federer is playing better than he was twelve months ago and I don't think this match will go the distance although it would be less surprising if the score from the last two sets is repeated again.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: A late bid for a place in the World Tour Finals means Grigor Dimitrov has played a lot of tennis in the last month and I am not sure if that contributed to some of his problems in the First Round against Alexander Zverev.
A bigger issue may have been a lack of familiarity with Zverev's game that allowed his opponent to dominate the first set before Dimitrov dug deep within himself to turn the match around and keep his hopes of reaching London alive.
Vasek Pospisil is less of a mystery and I think that will help Dimitrov in this Second Round match and I do think the layers have made a mistake with this spread. I figured it would be at least one game higher, while I never expected this to be at odds against.
Pospisil does have a serve that should work wonders on the indoor hard courts, and that showed up when he reached the Semi Final here last season. However, he found Roger Federer a little too good in that match and Grigor Dimitrov might be better placed after his First Round scare.
We will likely see at least one tie-breaker, but I think Dimitrov has an effective enough return to find a break or two which can help him cover the number.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kenny De Schepper + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-8, - 10.66 Units (22 Units Staked, - 48.45% Yield)
That result hasn't ended Williams' participation at the WTA Finals, but it does mean she needs to beat Eugenie Bouchard, preferably in straight sets, and hope Simona Halep can give Ana Ivanovic either a competitive match that goes into three sets or the Romanian can simply win the match and the Group.
With the Race to London taking centre stage on the ATP Tour, Tomas Berdych was the only player that has yet to secure his place in the Tour Finals that was beaten in competition which could have opened the door for the likes of Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov to make up some points on him if not overtake him.
With Rafael Nadal looking pretty good in Basel and Novak Djokovic admitting he is preparing for Paris after his wife gave birth to a baby boy, the top eight players may be ready to take their place in London after all. That means every point is going to matter in the bid to sow up those places with just two weeks to go until we know the final line up in London for the event which will begin on November 9th.
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: The winner of this match will likely have booked their place in the Semi Final of the WTA Finals and I think the Dane Caroline Wozniacki is going to have a little bit too much for Agnieszka Radwanska.
Of course one of the concerns is that Wozniacki had to dig really deep within herself to beat Maria Sharapova just two days ago and it would be interesting to see if she has left something on the court.
Agnieszka Radwanska had a much easier time in her win over Petra Kvitova, which was something of a surprise considering Radwanska's late season form.
Both players produce a similar style of tennis which should make this another competitive match, but I think Wozniacki is able to back up her win over Radwanska from the Cincinnati event, their only match of the year. That ended Wozniacki's three match losing run in the head to head and I think Wozniacki has the slightly better serve which could prove to be a difference maker.
I won't be that surprised if we did see a final set decider for the first time this week, but Wozniacki might just have the edge to come through with a 75, 46, 63 win.
Jeremy Chardy v Alexandr Dolgopolov: This Second Round match comes between two players who will be meeting for the fourth time this season as Alexandr Dolgopolov looks to level the head to head with Jeremy Chardy having won the last match between them.
Chardy is a player that can frustrate me as he can make a rash of errors to lose matches comprehensively, but I am surprised he has been set as the underdog in this match. It seems to be an overreaction to Dolgopolov's dismantling of Gilles Simon in the First Round, especially as that was his first win since coming back from surgery.
The indoor hard courts should really aid both of these players you would feel as they have decent first serves, but neither Chardy nor Dolgopolov have had a sustained success on the surface.
The Frenchman has been in better form of the two players of late with more wins to his name and I am interested to see how Dolgopolov will try to back up his first win in months with another match so soon after that one. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go the distance with both players sometimes very erratic on the court, but I think the underdog can come through with a win.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Coming through the qualifiers and winning a match on the main draw should have given Thomaz Bellucci some confidence ahead of this Second Round match against Roberto Bautista Agut and may also have eased a couple of my concerns in backing the Spaniard.
Bautista Agut was the far better player when seeing off Santiago Giraldo on Wednesday, but he had a long week in Moscow last week that saw him come a little short when losing in the Final. However, he had a couple of days to recover and Bellucci has played more tennis in the last few days than Bautista Agut so tiredness may affect the Brazilian more in this match.
The lefty serve will take some reading for Bautista Agut, but he can frustrate opponents with his defence as he did to Giraldo and I can see the same fate eventually befalling Bellucci. There are times I have watched Bellucci and been impressed with the talent he possesses, but Bautista Agut is having a great season and he looks like a man determined to end 2014 in the right way.
If Bautista Agut is protecting his serve as well as he did on Wednesday, he could wear down Bellucci in this one and eventually come through 75, 64.
Kenny De Schepper + 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: This isn't a lot of games to take to the bank, but Kenny De Schepper has a big enough serve to force a couple of tie-breaks even if he doesn't quite have enough to see off Ivo Karlovic. The veteran Karlovic has been playing well in recent weeks and has had a big 2014 season to move back into the top 32 in the World Rankings, but he doesn't get a lot of joy when it comes to return games and is still heavily reliant on his own big serve.
This match is likely to have a lot of quick games with both players much more effective when having the first strike of their serve and I think break points will come at a premium. It might take just one break for Karlovic for him to cover this number, but the opposite view is that one break for De Schepper may make it almost impossible for Karlovic to do that.
When they met a couple of years ago, it was no surprise that Karlovic needed two tie-breakers to win the match and De Schepper will have some confidence having won a couple of qualifiers to reach this Second Round match.
I'll be looking for De Schepper to use that confidence to keep this match very close and will take the games on offer.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Denis Istomin: The lure of finishing with the year end World Number 1 position is keeping Roger Federer focused for the final three weeks of the Tour ahead of his first appearance in the Davis Cup Final.
He was brutal in dismissing Gilles Muller in the First Round in Basel, but Denis Istomin showed twelve months ago that he can be a decent indoor hard court player when pushing Federer in a three set loss.
That was about as tough as Istomin has ever made it for Federer and my criticism of the Uzbekistan player is that he doesn't seem to give himself a real shot of beating the top players on the Tour. I am not convinced he believes he can win these kinds of matches and I think making it as competitive as last season would constitute a success for him.
I think Federer is playing better than he was twelve months ago and I don't think this match will go the distance although it would be less surprising if the score from the last two sets is repeated again.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: A late bid for a place in the World Tour Finals means Grigor Dimitrov has played a lot of tennis in the last month and I am not sure if that contributed to some of his problems in the First Round against Alexander Zverev.
A bigger issue may have been a lack of familiarity with Zverev's game that allowed his opponent to dominate the first set before Dimitrov dug deep within himself to turn the match around and keep his hopes of reaching London alive.
Vasek Pospisil is less of a mystery and I think that will help Dimitrov in this Second Round match and I do think the layers have made a mistake with this spread. I figured it would be at least one game higher, while I never expected this to be at odds against.
Pospisil does have a serve that should work wonders on the indoor hard courts, and that showed up when he reached the Semi Final here last season. However, he found Roger Federer a little too good in that match and Grigor Dimitrov might be better placed after his First Round scare.
We will likely see at least one tie-breaker, but I think Dimitrov has an effective enough return to find a break or two which can help him cover the number.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kenny De Schepper + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-8, - 10.66 Units (22 Units Staked, - 48.45% Yield)
Wednesday, 22 October 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (October 22nd)
It has been a pretty poor first couple of days for the tennis picks including the terrible Tuesday where all four picks went down the drain- it was one of those days when you couldn't even point to bad luck as all four picks were pretty terrible.
On Wednesday, the WTA Finals move to the second set of round robin matches, while the tournaments in Basel and Valencia both really get going. After the really poor Tuesday action, I am hoping that Wednesday proves to be a more productive day as some of the biggest names in the sport are all in action.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Any time a player comes through the qualifiers into the main draw, they have to be respected, especially when that player wins a match in the First Round too. Pierre-Hugues Herbert has had to battle hard to come through to this marquee match against Rafael Nadal, although he will need to hope that the latter is off his game somewhat for the shock result to have a chance of coming in.
Nadal was brutally efficient in dealing with Simone Bolelli in the First Round, although there remain some issues with his health that have yet to determine his participation in London for the Tour Finals. The Spaniard also admitted he was a little surprised with his performance in the First Round, but I still think Nadal should be far too good for a player ranked outside the top 100 and who spends the majority of his time on the Challenger Tour.
Of course a spread like this can be dangerous for Nadal who generally prefers serving second, while Herbert is someone that pushed Novak Djokovic fairly hard a year ago on an indoor court in Paris. However, Nadal won't give up any point and I think he will wear down his opponent in this Second Round match and come through with a 64, 63 win.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: The big problem at this time of the season is trying to work out the motivation of players with the end of the season fast approaching. I think Santiago Giraldo could be facing a problem in that regards as he has lost his last three matches and I think Roberto Bautista Agut is going to be a little too consistent for the Colombian.
As big as Giraldo can play at times, Bautista Agut has a decent enough defence to force him to try and hit closer and closer to the lines and eventually leading to the mistakes that the Spaniard will thrive upon.
One concern is that Bautista Agut had a long week in Moscow reaching the Final there on Sunday, but I also think this has been a career year for Bautista Agut and one that he would surely like to end on a high.
Eventually I look for Bautista Agut to just have a little too much for Giraldo which leads to a 64, 64 win.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Simona Halep: Both of these players won their first round robin match at the WTA Finals which has given them a great chance of reaching the Semi Finals and the winner will most likely have booked their place in the last four of the final tournament of the season.
Serena Williams battled deep within herself to see of Ana Ivanovic in her first match, while Simona Halep had a much 'easier' day in the office with a convincing win over Eugenie Bouchard that was very one sided.
As consistent as Halep has been, it will be very difficult for her to keep up with Williams who should be able to play first strike tennis which makes her so effective a player. Keeping Halep on the backfoot should allow Williams to dominate the match in terms of pace and eventually breaking down the Romanian who could potentially want to leave something in the tank for her final round robin match against Ana Ivanovic.
Williams has to serve better than she has since the US Open if she is to make this a match she can win with room to spare on the scoreboard, but her power should give her the edge. Keeping the unforced errors to a minimum should be achievable as I expect Williams to earn the short ball and that should be enough to see her come through with a 64, 63 win.
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: With both players losing the first round robin matches, this is a must win match for Eugenie Bouchard and Ana Ivanovic and I do think we will see more out of the Canadian than we did a couple of days ago.
On that occasion, too many unforced errors from the Bouchard racquet made life very easy for Simona Halep as she fell behind very quickly in the first set and Bouchard made it clear that she realises she has to be more consistent when dealing with the competition in the WTA Finals.
Ana Ivanovic played Serena Williams very tough in her opening loss, but also went down in straight sets and her own inconsistencies make her a vulnerable favourite. Bouchard has won their two previous matches including coming from a set behind to beat Ivanovic at the Australian Open earlier this season and I think she can make this a competitive match.
The number of games given to Bouchard suggests that winning a set will be enough to help her cover as long as that set is won in any way other than a tie-breaker and this does look a three set match in the making. There should be a few breaks of serve each way, but I like Bouchard to at least keep it much closer than she did against Halep in a huge match for both players with ambitions of making it through to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-6, - 10.16 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.57% Yield)
On Wednesday, the WTA Finals move to the second set of round robin matches, while the tournaments in Basel and Valencia both really get going. After the really poor Tuesday action, I am hoping that Wednesday proves to be a more productive day as some of the biggest names in the sport are all in action.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Any time a player comes through the qualifiers into the main draw, they have to be respected, especially when that player wins a match in the First Round too. Pierre-Hugues Herbert has had to battle hard to come through to this marquee match against Rafael Nadal, although he will need to hope that the latter is off his game somewhat for the shock result to have a chance of coming in.
Nadal was brutally efficient in dealing with Simone Bolelli in the First Round, although there remain some issues with his health that have yet to determine his participation in London for the Tour Finals. The Spaniard also admitted he was a little surprised with his performance in the First Round, but I still think Nadal should be far too good for a player ranked outside the top 100 and who spends the majority of his time on the Challenger Tour.
Of course a spread like this can be dangerous for Nadal who generally prefers serving second, while Herbert is someone that pushed Novak Djokovic fairly hard a year ago on an indoor court in Paris. However, Nadal won't give up any point and I think he will wear down his opponent in this Second Round match and come through with a 64, 63 win.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: The big problem at this time of the season is trying to work out the motivation of players with the end of the season fast approaching. I think Santiago Giraldo could be facing a problem in that regards as he has lost his last three matches and I think Roberto Bautista Agut is going to be a little too consistent for the Colombian.
As big as Giraldo can play at times, Bautista Agut has a decent enough defence to force him to try and hit closer and closer to the lines and eventually leading to the mistakes that the Spaniard will thrive upon.
One concern is that Bautista Agut had a long week in Moscow reaching the Final there on Sunday, but I also think this has been a career year for Bautista Agut and one that he would surely like to end on a high.
Eventually I look for Bautista Agut to just have a little too much for Giraldo which leads to a 64, 64 win.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Simona Halep: Both of these players won their first round robin match at the WTA Finals which has given them a great chance of reaching the Semi Finals and the winner will most likely have booked their place in the last four of the final tournament of the season.
Serena Williams battled deep within herself to see of Ana Ivanovic in her first match, while Simona Halep had a much 'easier' day in the office with a convincing win over Eugenie Bouchard that was very one sided.
As consistent as Halep has been, it will be very difficult for her to keep up with Williams who should be able to play first strike tennis which makes her so effective a player. Keeping Halep on the backfoot should allow Williams to dominate the match in terms of pace and eventually breaking down the Romanian who could potentially want to leave something in the tank for her final round robin match against Ana Ivanovic.
Williams has to serve better than she has since the US Open if she is to make this a match she can win with room to spare on the scoreboard, but her power should give her the edge. Keeping the unforced errors to a minimum should be achievable as I expect Williams to earn the short ball and that should be enough to see her come through with a 64, 63 win.
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: With both players losing the first round robin matches, this is a must win match for Eugenie Bouchard and Ana Ivanovic and I do think we will see more out of the Canadian than we did a couple of days ago.
On that occasion, too many unforced errors from the Bouchard racquet made life very easy for Simona Halep as she fell behind very quickly in the first set and Bouchard made it clear that she realises she has to be more consistent when dealing with the competition in the WTA Finals.
Ana Ivanovic played Serena Williams very tough in her opening loss, but also went down in straight sets and her own inconsistencies make her a vulnerable favourite. Bouchard has won their two previous matches including coming from a set behind to beat Ivanovic at the Australian Open earlier this season and I think she can make this a competitive match.
The number of games given to Bouchard suggests that winning a set will be enough to help her cover as long as that set is won in any way other than a tie-breaker and this does look a three set match in the making. There should be a few breaks of serve each way, but I like Bouchard to at least keep it much closer than she did against Halep in a huge match for both players with ambitions of making it through to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-6, - 10.16 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.57% Yield)
Tuesday, 21 October 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (October 21st)
I was out at a wonderful talk given by the incomparable Roy Keane which means I won't have the time for my normal post for the tennis picks from matches to be played on Tuesday.
The first day was a mixed bag with both picks from the WTA Finals falling by the wayside, but Rafael Nadal was a very convincing winner in Basel to move into the Second Round of a tournament loaded with some big names.
MY PICKS: John Isner @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.16 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36% Yield)
The first day was a mixed bag with both picks from the WTA Finals falling by the wayside, but Rafael Nadal was a very convincing winner in Basel to move into the Second Round of a tournament loaded with some big names.
MY PICKS: John Isner @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.16 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36% Yield)
Thursday, 24 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 24th)
It has truly been a terrible week when it comes to the tennis picks being made, but those have mainly been my own fault with some poor decisions made on my part. Sometimes you can look at bad luck, but this has not been one of those weeks as I have picked some poor matches and players haven't even been in matches that they have lost.
Anyway, hopefully Thursday will prove to be a better day for the picks going forward.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I think 2014 will see David Ferrer begin to drop rapidly down the World Rankings, especially the early part of the season when he has a lot of points to defend, while he has to do more of the same in the next couple of weeks.
Twelve months ago, Ferrer won the tournament in Valencia and followed that up with his first Masters win in Paris, and he got off to a decent start with a win over Gael Monfils yesterday. That will give him some confidence after Ferrer has really struggled for form since reaching the French Open Final and he has a number of surprise losses on his record since then.
It certainly isn't an easy match against Julien Benneteau who is coming off an impressive dismantling of Feliciano Lopez and the Frenchman has always enjoyed the indoor hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Benneteau has a surprisingly decent serve, although his second serve isn't as strong, and he can certainly play enough good tennis to break serve so Ferrer will have to be on his toes in this one. However, I do think that Ferrer is going to be able to earn a bit more from the longer rallies in this one.
I won't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I think Ferrer can come through with a 75, 64 win.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro is defending his title in Basel this week after a successful Asian swing and he has proven to be one of the best indoor players on the Tour over the last couple of years.
Just looking at his last twelve months will show he has titles in Basel, Vienna and Rotterdam, while he has also reached the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and Del Potro will certainly be tough to stop here this week.
Even with that in mind, I think Marcos Baghdatis could cause him some problems as he has in their past meetings and I like the Cypriot's chances to make this a competitive match despite a terrible 2013 season. I think Baghdatis causes problems for Del Potro because he is pretty strong off the ground and is willing to match what Del Potro brings to the court, although that is also why he hasn't been able to sustain that and actually beat the Argentinian player in their three matches this season.
There is every chance that Baghdatis can take a set in this one and that should put him in a position to cover the spread, although he will have to serve well too which can be an issue for him.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Na Li didn't return serve very well in her win over Sara Errani, but could book her place in the Semi Final with a win over Jelena Jankovic who is coming off an impressive win over Victoria Azarenka.
There is slightly less pressure on Jankovic which could make her a dangerous opponent, especially as she will face an injured Errani in her final match in the Group and the win over Azarenka puts the Serb in a strong spot.
I do think Li is the stronger player of the two, especially as Jankovic can be so erratic from day to day and she may also just relax a little too much off a big win as she had yesterday. The return game from Li will be the key in this one and she has to perform better in those positions than she did against Errani, but she had a lot of success against the Jankovic in the US Open that she can replicate here.
It will be close, but Li could come through 63, 76.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: It may be too late for Agnieszka Radwanska to qualify for the Semi Finals after losing her first two matches without winning a set, but she could have a small chance of going through if she wins this match impressively.
Radwanska has the game to make life very awkward for Angelique Kerber and the pressure is also on the German following her loss to Serena Williams in her opening match. Kerber does have decent ground strokes, but she is too often comfortable getting dragged into long rallies and you would have to back Radwanska to win the majority of those battles.
Both players will definitely feel more comfortable returning serve and they have split two matches over the last month, but I do think Radwanska's game is more reliable of the two. If Kerber serves particularly well, that could be a different story, while Radwanska dropping the first set may see her 'tank' the match, but I do believe the Pole is going to come through to give herself a small chance of progressing to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Anyway, hopefully Thursday will prove to be a better day for the picks going forward.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I think 2014 will see David Ferrer begin to drop rapidly down the World Rankings, especially the early part of the season when he has a lot of points to defend, while he has to do more of the same in the next couple of weeks.
Twelve months ago, Ferrer won the tournament in Valencia and followed that up with his first Masters win in Paris, and he got off to a decent start with a win over Gael Monfils yesterday. That will give him some confidence after Ferrer has really struggled for form since reaching the French Open Final and he has a number of surprise losses on his record since then.
It certainly isn't an easy match against Julien Benneteau who is coming off an impressive dismantling of Feliciano Lopez and the Frenchman has always enjoyed the indoor hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Benneteau has a surprisingly decent serve, although his second serve isn't as strong, and he can certainly play enough good tennis to break serve so Ferrer will have to be on his toes in this one. However, I do think that Ferrer is going to be able to earn a bit more from the longer rallies in this one.
I won't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I think Ferrer can come through with a 75, 64 win.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro is defending his title in Basel this week after a successful Asian swing and he has proven to be one of the best indoor players on the Tour over the last couple of years.
Just looking at his last twelve months will show he has titles in Basel, Vienna and Rotterdam, while he has also reached the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and Del Potro will certainly be tough to stop here this week.
Even with that in mind, I think Marcos Baghdatis could cause him some problems as he has in their past meetings and I like the Cypriot's chances to make this a competitive match despite a terrible 2013 season. I think Baghdatis causes problems for Del Potro because he is pretty strong off the ground and is willing to match what Del Potro brings to the court, although that is also why he hasn't been able to sustain that and actually beat the Argentinian player in their three matches this season.
There is every chance that Baghdatis can take a set in this one and that should put him in a position to cover the spread, although he will have to serve well too which can be an issue for him.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Na Li didn't return serve very well in her win over Sara Errani, but could book her place in the Semi Final with a win over Jelena Jankovic who is coming off an impressive win over Victoria Azarenka.
There is slightly less pressure on Jankovic which could make her a dangerous opponent, especially as she will face an injured Errani in her final match in the Group and the win over Azarenka puts the Serb in a strong spot.
I do think Li is the stronger player of the two, especially as Jankovic can be so erratic from day to day and she may also just relax a little too much off a big win as she had yesterday. The return game from Li will be the key in this one and she has to perform better in those positions than she did against Errani, but she had a lot of success against the Jankovic in the US Open that she can replicate here.
It will be close, but Li could come through 63, 76.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: It may be too late for Agnieszka Radwanska to qualify for the Semi Finals after losing her first two matches without winning a set, but she could have a small chance of going through if she wins this match impressively.
Radwanska has the game to make life very awkward for Angelique Kerber and the pressure is also on the German following her loss to Serena Williams in her opening match. Kerber does have decent ground strokes, but she is too often comfortable getting dragged into long rallies and you would have to back Radwanska to win the majority of those battles.
Both players will definitely feel more comfortable returning serve and they have split two matches over the last month, but I do think Radwanska's game is more reliable of the two. If Kerber serves particularly well, that could be a different story, while Radwanska dropping the first set may see her 'tank' the match, but I do believe the Pole is going to come through to give herself a small chance of progressing to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wednesday, 23 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 23rd)
It wasn't a fun Tuesday as the picks all seemed to decide to play like crap early and then try and turn things around... I was particularly disappointed with the early part of the Victoria Azarenka match as she had so many chances to take a commanding lead, but didn't really get going until she was 2-5 down in the set.
Hopefully Wednesday is a much better day as is the rest of the week.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Serena Williams started off a little slowly in her first match in Istanbul, but she still managed to run away with the match and I am expecting her to be too strong for Agnieszka Radwanska in this second match and book her place in the Semi Finals.
Radwanska lost her opening match last night and her game doesn't really trouble Serena as she doesn't have the power to really get the American moving side to side. If Serena has time to hit a ball, she is going to dictate the majority of points and the Radwanska serve doesn't set up too many short points either.
On the other hand, Williams will use her big serve to dominate rallies and it is no surprise that Radwanska has barely struggled to make matches competitive in the past when coming up against Serena.
The courts are playing a little slower from what I had seen yesterday, but Williams is playing too well to lose this match and I do expect another strong win.
Robin Haase v Vasek Pospisil: These two players met last week in Vienna and it was a fairly close match for the first couple of sets, although Robin Haase managed to pull away in the third set to take the win.
Both players will feel their game is suited to an indoor hard court as both have decent first serves, but both are also erratic off the ground. Vasek Pospisil will look to get to the net and put away volleys, but that also leaves him vulnerable to passing shots and I think the Canadian is going to struggle to consistently find winners at the net.
I don't particularly rate him when it comes to long, drawn out rallies from the back of the court, although I would be surprised if we see too many of those in this one. Robin Haase should be able to frank the win from last week as long as he isn't too tired from reaching the Final in Vienna where he came up a little short against Tommy Haas.
Kei Nishikori v Ivan Dodig: I actually quite like the way Ivan Dodig gets on with business on the court, but he can be a little erratic with his approach shots which can leave him in no man's land when he approaches the net.
He has a lot of good abilities with a strong serve and heavy groundies, while his doubles play has seen his volleys continue to improve, but a player like Kei Nishikori could give him fits as he makes him play one more shot.
Kei Nishikori should prove to be too strong over three sets in this one despite not having a huge shot in his arsenal, but I expect his consistency to grind down Dodig, although there will be a couple of close sets played. That means this match is likely going to come down to a couple of key points in each set and I think the Japanese player can come through those moments to win a close one.
Grigor Dimitrov v Radek Stepanek: It had been a tough couple of months for Grigor Dimitrov as the season was coming to a close, but he has recovered to win the tournament in Stockholm last week and may have the confidence to come through this match against Radek Stepanek.
It is tough to back up a winning week on the Tour as tiredness from travelling and a lot of tennis can catch up to players, but Dimitrov is definitely on the up while Stepanek's best performances are reserved for the Davis Cup or for doubles tournaments.
However, Stepanek has the ability to get under the skin of opponents and it may take Dimitrov a little while to get used to what he is seeing on the other side of the net. I think Stepanek will want the younger player to feel like he doesn't know what is coming next from him, but Dimitrov has played some big matches this year and should be able to handle the expectation.
It will likely be another close match, but I like Dimitrov to come through and get a step closer to the potential match up with Roger Federer later in the week.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Tommy Haas has given himself a little chance to get through to the World Tour Finals in London by winning the tournament in Vienna last week, but he still needs other players to lose early and himself to get close to winning the last two tournaments of the season if he is to sneak in.
That means he can't afford to take this match easy, although the veteran will also find it tough to back up the success of last week. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough player to get a handle on as he can play some sublime tennis, but then suddenly start exploding in a rash of errors from out of nowhere.
Kohlschreiber hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last six weeks though and I think that will work against him in this one and I do like Haas' chances of coming through in two tough sets.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Hopefully Wednesday is a much better day as is the rest of the week.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Serena Williams started off a little slowly in her first match in Istanbul, but she still managed to run away with the match and I am expecting her to be too strong for Agnieszka Radwanska in this second match and book her place in the Semi Finals.
Radwanska lost her opening match last night and her game doesn't really trouble Serena as she doesn't have the power to really get the American moving side to side. If Serena has time to hit a ball, she is going to dictate the majority of points and the Radwanska serve doesn't set up too many short points either.
On the other hand, Williams will use her big serve to dominate rallies and it is no surprise that Radwanska has barely struggled to make matches competitive in the past when coming up against Serena.
The courts are playing a little slower from what I had seen yesterday, but Williams is playing too well to lose this match and I do expect another strong win.
Robin Haase v Vasek Pospisil: These two players met last week in Vienna and it was a fairly close match for the first couple of sets, although Robin Haase managed to pull away in the third set to take the win.
Both players will feel their game is suited to an indoor hard court as both have decent first serves, but both are also erratic off the ground. Vasek Pospisil will look to get to the net and put away volleys, but that also leaves him vulnerable to passing shots and I think the Canadian is going to struggle to consistently find winners at the net.
I don't particularly rate him when it comes to long, drawn out rallies from the back of the court, although I would be surprised if we see too many of those in this one. Robin Haase should be able to frank the win from last week as long as he isn't too tired from reaching the Final in Vienna where he came up a little short against Tommy Haas.
Kei Nishikori v Ivan Dodig: I actually quite like the way Ivan Dodig gets on with business on the court, but he can be a little erratic with his approach shots which can leave him in no man's land when he approaches the net.
He has a lot of good abilities with a strong serve and heavy groundies, while his doubles play has seen his volleys continue to improve, but a player like Kei Nishikori could give him fits as he makes him play one more shot.
Kei Nishikori should prove to be too strong over three sets in this one despite not having a huge shot in his arsenal, but I expect his consistency to grind down Dodig, although there will be a couple of close sets played. That means this match is likely going to come down to a couple of key points in each set and I think the Japanese player can come through those moments to win a close one.
Grigor Dimitrov v Radek Stepanek: It had been a tough couple of months for Grigor Dimitrov as the season was coming to a close, but he has recovered to win the tournament in Stockholm last week and may have the confidence to come through this match against Radek Stepanek.
It is tough to back up a winning week on the Tour as tiredness from travelling and a lot of tennis can catch up to players, but Dimitrov is definitely on the up while Stepanek's best performances are reserved for the Davis Cup or for doubles tournaments.
However, Stepanek has the ability to get under the skin of opponents and it may take Dimitrov a little while to get used to what he is seeing on the other side of the net. I think Stepanek will want the younger player to feel like he doesn't know what is coming next from him, but Dimitrov has played some big matches this year and should be able to handle the expectation.
It will likely be another close match, but I like Dimitrov to come through and get a step closer to the potential match up with Roger Federer later in the week.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Tommy Haas has given himself a little chance to get through to the World Tour Finals in London by winning the tournament in Vienna last week, but he still needs other players to lose early and himself to get close to winning the last two tournaments of the season if he is to sneak in.
That means he can't afford to take this match easy, although the veteran will also find it tough to back up the success of last week. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough player to get a handle on as he can play some sublime tennis, but then suddenly start exploding in a rash of errors from out of nowhere.
Kohlschreiber hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last six weeks though and I think that will work against him in this one and I do like Haas' chances of coming through in two tough sets.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tuesday, 22 October 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (October 22nd)
This is the final week of the season for those players on the WTA Tour as the End of Year Championships begin in Istanbul on Tuesday, while the ATP Tour has reached the last exciting two weeks of the season where players try and book a place at the World Tour Finals.
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
It is the tournament in Basel that has the most interest with the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet all looking for more points to add to their chances of making it to London.
Tommy Haas is playing in Valencia, but he looks like he has too many points to make up, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has decided to save his energy for Paris next week. Tsonga, along with the three players named playing in Basel, are likely playing for the last three places in London with both Haas and Milos Raonic looking for a lot of help if they are to sneak in.
Serena Williams is clearly going to begin as the favourite in Istanbul to win that title after the way she has played throughout 2013 and she is clearly the player to beat when it comes to Grand Slams going into 2014. She won't be disappointed with the draw and will likely face Victoria Azarenka in the Final.
The American won the tournament last year, but the layers are taking no chances with her price and she is a short favourite to win this title. I can't disagree with that, but I also don't think there is much value with the top eight players here, aside from Maria Sharapova, and any lapse in concentration from Williams could allow someone else to take the title home.
Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: The first match in Istanbul is one that Victoria Azarenka will look to break her recent poor form and she matches up well enough against Sara Errani to think that is entirely possible.
Azarenka has lost both matches she has played since the US Open Final, but she has the power and consistency to really make life tough for Errani, while the Italian hasn't shown much form herself in recent weeks.
The World Number 2 should be able to bully the majority of the points in this opening match and it is no surprise that the scores in the recent sets between these two players have been skewed heavily in favour of Azarenka.
Errani has won more than 2 games in just 2 of the last 10 sets these two have competed in and I think Azarenka is going to be ready to come away with a 63, 62 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Petra Kvitova: This will be the third straight year that Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova have been paired in the Group Stage of the WTA Championships and both players have won one of the previous matches.
However, Kvitova's power has proved to be the difference in the majority of matches between the players as the Czech player has established a 4-1 head to head record.
Even with that in mind, this has been a tough year for Kvitova and she may find Radwanska just a little too consistent, while the ability of the Polish player to force an opponent to hit one more shot could be the difference in the match. Both have played some decent tennis since the US Open, while I would usually consider the faster indoor surfaces to be more to the liking of Kvitova.
They have both picked up titles since the US Open, but I think Radwanska has been the more consistent player and is worth a small interest.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: It can be hard for players to find their motivation towards the end of the season and that seems to be the case for both of these players meeting in the First Round in Basel.
There isn't much form to talk of as both players have lost a lot more than they have won recently, but Andreas Seppi has at least had a Semi Final run in recent weeks and I feel the Italian will get the better of Daniel Brands.
You would think an indoor hard court would favour someone like Brands who has a decent first serve and looks to play heavy groundies, but he has an erratic game and that can be shown up on a surface where games can move through quickly.
Seppi's game can also be vulnerable as his serve is attackable, but I think he can come through this one with a 64, 76 win under his belt.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has been by far the best year Joao Sousa has had on the Tour and he recently picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur and should be full of confidence with a couple of qualifiers wins under his belt here in Valencia.
The Portuguese player has definitely got more upside than Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is coming to the latter stages of his career, but the latter has also put in a couple of strong showings in tournaments and should be motivated to perform in front of the Spanish crowd.
Garcia-Lopez can play some really good tennis at times, but he is also capable of throwing in a terrible performance out of nowhere. The home crowd should keep him in this match though and he will have chances against Sousa's game.
He never makes life easy, but I can see Garcia-Lopez coming through 63, 46, 64.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Only a stomach issue in his last match in Shanghai concerns me, but Mikhail Youzhny should be too good for Bernard Tomic who has had his usual slow down as the season develops.
It seems to be the state of Tomic's game that he can't raise his level after Wimbledon and off-court issues have again been a concern for the Australian. I still think he is capable of reaching the heights of the men's game, but Tomic has to put in the time and effort that you need to do just that.
Too often I have seen Tomic fall apart in matches in surprising fashion and movement remains a weakness that can be exposed by the best players.
Youzhny is no longer amongst the best players on Tour, but he plays with heart and determination and I think that will lead him to the win. He can pressure opponents with that smooth backhand and I feel he will out-work Tomic and come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
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