Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 29th February)

A busy day in Dubai saw Andy Murray exit relatively early at another tournament and once again questions were asked about his future and how long he will continue to play competitive tennis on the Tour.

Whether it was frustration or whether it was genuine, Murray has once again hinted that retirement will happen sooner rather than later with an indication he wants to play the French Open, Wimbledon and then the Olympic Games in Paris before calling time on what has been a wonderful career.

While it is fair enough to wonder why Andy Murray keeps competing, I do think it is unfair that he is asked this after every loss on the Tour.

He has given enough to the sport to deserve the chance to go out how he wants and when he wants, although it is clear that Andy Murray is not prepared to be uncompetitive on the Tour. There was a genuine belief he could get back amongst the top players on the Tour when he pushed himself through a tough recovery period and returned to action with a metal hip.

It looks increasingly unlikely that Andy Murray will get to that level again and it becomes hard work to suffer defeats to players that he will expect to beat. The defeat to Ugo Humbert is not so bad on paper, but others this year have been much more difficult to accept and it is perhaps no surprise that Andy Murray all but stated that his career will be ending over the next several months.

Once again this thread will begin with any selections from the ATP Dubai event before adding those from the other four events.

The ATP Acapulco event is on the same path as the Dubai event with both looking to conclude on Saturday, which gives players a few days to get over to Indian Wells and prepare for the first ATP Masters event of the season.

The other three events are looking like they are on track for a Sunday Final and that is perhaps no surprise considering the two WTA events are being played in the United States.

It has been a solid start to the week, but the four selections on Wednesday in Acapulco will determine where the week stands in terms of the numbers.

Those numbers will be added to the thread on Thursday once all of the matches have been completed.

Alexander Bublik v Jiri Lehecka: Both of these players have played well on the hard courts this year and are enjoying good runs in Dubai, but there has been a little more convincing tennis produced by Alexander Bublik.

His two wins have been a little more comfortable than Jiri Lehecka's two wins and the Kazakhstan Number 1 has spent less time on the court.

A huge effort would have been put in by Jiri Lehecka to win on Wednesday when he was down Match Points in the second set and behind by a break of serve in the decider. Fighting back would have meant a real investment both physically and emotionally and it could leave Lehecka a little short in this one.

Trusting Alexander Bublik twice in a row might not be for everyone and he is a player that can be erratic- the serve has been decent this week, but there is room for improvement and Bublik will also have to be a little more efficient when the break points are earned.

However, he has looked slightly better than Jiri Lehecka in the first two matches in Dubai and it feels like Alexander Bublik should have been the favourite in this Quarter Final.

Jiri Lehecka has shown some solid form in 2024, but it may be tough if he is forced to dig into a third set again and Alexander Bublik can come through.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Sebastian Korda: Losing just three games in four sets will have given Sebastian Korda a real confidence to take into this Quarter Final in Dubai.

However, both of those wins have been against players Ranked at 63 or higher and now Sebastian Korda has to take a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.

Sebastian Korda suffered relatively early defeats in Marseille and Rotterdam so this run in Dubai has really come out of left field, but there is some pressure to produce his best against the stronger players on the Tour. As mentioned, both wins have been against players outside the top 60 in the World Rankings and it should be noted that Korda has lost four matches in a row on the hard courts against those Ranked inside the top 50.

One of those defeats came against Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, which makes it three straight losses to the current World Number 5.

Much like his opponent, Andrey Rublev has been playing very well here in Dubai and that has maintained a strong start to 2024. He generally beats those he is expected to beat and Rublev has won all three previous matches against Sebastian Korda without dropping a set.

Andrey Rublev has yet to drop his serve in Dubai and he has held in 94% of his service games against Sebastian Korda. The match in Melbourne saw them play a tight second set against one another, but Rublev was the stronger player and the expectation is that he can keep up his dominant run against the American.

After the two wins produced this week, Sebastian Korda will feel he can get a lot closer to Andrey Rublev, but this is a step up in class of opponent and the World Number 5 can find his best tennis at the big moments to move through to the Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: The Australian Open run took plenty out of Daniil Medvedev and he has spent a little more time recovering from his exploits in Melbourne than he has in previous years.

The World Number 4 has made it clear that his loss in the Final from two sets ahead will have hurt, but perhaps not has much as the defeat to Rafael Nadal in the exact same situation a couple of years ago.

His return to Dubai has at least seen Daniil Medvedev put a couple of wins on the board, although there is plenty of room for improvement too. That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev has played poorly, but he has set some high standards for himself as he prepares to reach the Semi Final.

Facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will be a challenge, but it is one that Medvedev will feel he can enjoy.

All three professional matches between the players have been won by Daniil Medvedev and both hard court wins have been in relatively comfortable fashion when all is said and done. The Russian has had a serious edge on the return of serve when facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and these faster conditions should suit him a little more.

As well as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can play on the hard courts, over the last twelve months he has a relatively weak 8-12 record against top 50 Ranked players on this surface. His serve has been attackable and the Spaniard has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as he would like, which is going to give Daniil Medvedev an edge in this one.

This is a big enough spread to deserve respect for the line, but Medvedev can find a way to earn the breaks of serve to earn what will feel like a good, strong win after some considerable investment of energy from the higher Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 6-7, - 3.50 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.46% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 28th February)

The first day of the week produced a solid return, but we will know more about how the tournaments are progressing for the Tennis Picks when the First Round is completed in Acapulco.

On Wednesday the entire Second Round in Dubai will be played as the organisers push for a Saturday finish and the players will probably appreciate that as they will have plenty of time to get over to Indian Wells and become accustomed to the conditions there.

All of the other four events being played may decide to split the Second Round matches as has become the norm for most events around the year, and any selections from those tournaments will be added to this thread.

Alexander Bublik v Tallon Griekspoor: Two players who have reached World Number 21 as career high Ranking marks over the last few months are hoping to push into the top 20 for the first time behind a strong run in Dubai.

There are some considerable Ranking points to be earned here, but that will also put some pressure on both Alexander Bublik and Tallon Griekspoor when they meet in the Second Round.

Layers are struggling to separate the players, and Alexander Bublik can be a little erratic which makes it tough to back him with a lot of confidence.

However, Bublik has won a title in Montpellier at the beginning of the month and his form has been decent enough as he bids to earn a Quarter Final spot.

He will need to serve well against someone like Tallon Griekspoor, especially in what have been fast conditions in Dubai so far this week. There is little doubt that the serve is one of the bigger weapons Griekspoor has at his disposal, but he has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts in 2024 and Alexander Bublik has to avoid being too generous and handing over a break of serve.

These two have not met on the Tour for a couple of years and both were similarly Ranked when they last played one another in Astana in 2022.

It was Alexander Bublik who won on that day and he has won all three professional matches against Tallon Griekspoor. All of those matches have been on the hard courts and Bublik has had a considerable edge on the return of serve and the feeling is that will show up in this Second Round match too.

Big serves are likely going to see players run through some service games, but Alexander Bublik may be confident enough to edge past a dangerous opponent into the last eight in Dubai.

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: 2023 might not have ended as he would have hoped, but Karen Khachanov has enjoyed the last month on the Tour after a decent enough showing at the Australian Open.

A Semi Final run in Marseille has been followed by picking up the title in Doha and Karen Khachanov was a solid winner in the First Round having made the short hope across to Dubai for this ATP 500 event.

The three match losing run Jiri Lehecka had absorbed was ended in his solid First Round win over Marton Fucsovics, but this feels like another step up in class.

There is plenty to like about the way the Czech youngster approaches his tennis and a big game could be tough to deal with on these fasters courts. There is some room for improvement on the return of serve, but Jiri Lehecka will be hoping he can build scoreboard pressure to crack Karen Khachanov.

Big serving has certainly helped the World Number 15 produce the solid results he has done over the last month, and Karen Khachanov will be boosted by holding two wins over Jiri Lehecka last year on this surface.

Karen Khachanov only faced a single Break Point in two matches against Lehecka, while he has found a way to neutralise the serve and get into the rallies. That may be a bit more difficult on these courts, but Karen Khachanov can still hold enough of an edge to win this match and cover the handicap mark set.

The remaining Tennis Picks will all come from the ATP Acapulco event where the organisers are also looking to schedule a Saturday Final.

He is not entirely easy to trust, but Frances Tiafoe may be able to do just enough to get the better of Dominik Koepfer, a player who has struggled when it comes to facing top 50 opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas are tipped to get the better of Italian opponents who have not had the best time on the hard courts. Both Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli have played well to get to the Second Round in Acapulco, the latter as a Qualifier, but this is a considerable step up for both and a proving ground for them.

Backing up big First Round wins might just be beyond them against solid hard court players.

And the expectation is that Casper Ruud can keep his fine hard court performances going against an opponent who spent some time playing on the South American Golden Swing before heading to Acapulco.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)

Week Update: 5-2, + 4.80 Units (14 Units Staked, + 34.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 27th February)

We won't know how the day has gone until the matches in Acapulco and Santiago have been completed, but it was a decent enough start in Dubai thanks to Andrey Rublev's fight from a set down to eventually comfortably progress into the Second Round.

The remainder of the First Round is going to be completed at the ATP 500 event in Dubai, while there will be full days at the other four tournaments being played this week.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: He might be the World Number 24, but cracking the top 20 has proven to be a little too difficult for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

He will give it another go this week with some big Ranking points available in Dubai, but it will depend on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina finding some consistency in his tennis. On occasions he can be very good, but he does let himself down at times without having a dominant aspect of his game meaning every match can become something of a chore to win.

Decent numbers have been produced on all surfaces, but they are only slightly above average and it does make it hard to win matches without having to put in a considerable effort each time.

Three losses in a row will have dented some of the confidence and the Spaniard has not really returned as well as he would have liked in those defeats.

It should be a more comfortable time on the return against someone like Fabian Marozsan who has held 74% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2024. The Hungarian enjoyed a decent run at the Australian Open, but his hold percentage drops to 72 when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents this season.

This has put considerable pressure on the Fabian Marozsan return of serve and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina should be able to serve well enough to contain the threat from the other side of the court.

Nothing ever comes easy for the higher Ranked player, but he can do enough to cover this spread set in the First Round in Dubai, even when accounting for the faster conditions that have been evident at the tournament.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 2-1, + 2 Units (6 Units Staked, + 33.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 26th February)

The first week with a winning record was finally produced and that hopefully begins to give the Tennis Picks some momentum to take into the events that are beginning this week.

We have three ATP events, two of those at the 500 level, while the WTA Tour moves to San Diego for a 500 event and Austin for a 250 with the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Masters dominating March.

Some big names are still heading out into the tournaments, but plenty of others will already be thinking ahead to those back to back Masters events that conclude the first part of the hard court season.

After that the clay court season will begin as the run to the French Open gets underway in early April.

Much like last week, the ATP 500 tournament in Dubai will have markets up at a reasonable time, but selections from the other events may have to be placed in the thread after the initial Picks have been written down.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: He continues to play at a high level, but Andrey Rublev will have been a little disappointed with a relatively early exit in Doha last week.

He will be playing in Dubai as the Number 2 Seed and Andrey Rublev will need to be playing at a solid level right from the start of the tournament.

First up is Zhizhen Zhang who has reached a career high World Ranking earlier this month, but who has had a couple of subpar tournaments. A very early loss in Rotterdam was followed by a 1-1 performance in Doha, while Zhang is not returning as well as he would like, especially ahead of a match against someone like Andrey Rublev who does have an effective serve.

There is room for improvement as far as the Rublev return game goes, but he may be able to get into a few more rallies against this Zhizhen Zhang serve.

It does feel like a wide spread when you consider Andrey Rublev has just had a few issues converting breaks of serve- he is at 17% in that department this season, but Zhang was put under constant pressure by Karen Khachanov when he played him in Marseille.

The conditions in Dubai felt like they were playing pretty fast last week and so breaks of serve may not be easy to come, but Andrey Rublev is likely to have the better of this match. If he can just take the chances a little more efficiently, Rublev can show his superiority in the match and he can cover.

The first couple of days of this week are going to be busy so any selections from Acapulco, Santiago, San Diego or Austin will only be added below with fuller thoughts on any Picks from Dubai.

Later in the week it should be a bit more time manageable to add a few thoughts to all of the Picks being made.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Facundo Diaz Acosta - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 24th February)

We are down to the last couple of days of the latest week on the ATP/WTA Tour, although three of the four events that have been focused on are actually coming to a close on Saturday rather than Sunday.

The Finals in Dubai, Doha and Los Cabos are all scheduled for Saturday- the former two events are played in the Middle East where Finals tend to be concluded on the Saturday, while Los Cabos have organised a way for their players reaching the business end of the tournament to have a bit of recovery time if they are going to be playing at any of the big ATP 500 events that are set for next week before attention turns to Indian Wells and Miami.

Any selections from the two tournaments in Central and South America will be added when the Quarter Finals and Semi Finals are concluded, while there won't be a selection from the ATP Doha Final.

The lean is with Karen Khachanov there, but Jakub Mensik has overcome the odds and the numbers and is playing with a real belief that could be tough to shake off.

Instead the sole Pick so far is from the surprising WTA Final in Dubai as the focus begins to shift towards a new week once this one hopefully comes to a positive conclusion.

Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: Wins over three top 10 Ranked opponents has pushed Anna Kalinskaya into the biggest match of her career and a real opportunity to back up her run at the Australian Open.

A new career high World Ranking awaits when those are published on Monday morning, but a place inside the top 20 will be secured if Anna Kalinskaya can win the WTA 1000 event in Dubai.

Her opponent is also something of a surprise considering this is one of the top events outside of the Grand Slam events that players on the WTA Tour will play. Jasmine Paolini has perhaps not had as tough a run as Anna Kalinskaya, who has beaten the World Number 9, Number 3 and Number 1 in consecutive Rounds, but the Italian has made her way through the draw against three players who are Ranked higher than herself.

Benefiting from Elena Rybakina's withdrawal ahead of the Quarter Final match will have helped, but it has been a solid year so far for Jasmine Paolini who has cracked the top 20 of the World Rankings.

There is no doubting the level being produced by Jasmine Paolini, but she is going to be facing an opponent who is getting plenty of joy out of her first serve and who has been playing elite tennis from the baseline. Any player that can rally with Iga Swiatek and begin to overpower the World Number 1 has to be given plenty of respect.

Anna Kalinskaya also has a slight mental edge having crushed Jasmine Paolini at the Australian Open last month.

She served with real intensity in that Fourth Round match and the conditions in Dubai are clearly favouring the big hitting produced by the Russian who had to come through the Qualifiers to even make the main draw.

That does mean she has played a lot of tennis this week, but Anna Kalinskaya will have a couple of weeks off after this match and she can put her all into it.

Jasmine Paolini will not roll over and has shown some quality form to reach the Final herself, but she is not quite playing as well as Anna Kalinskaya who has been producing her results against some of the very best players on the Tour. Emotionally this is a step down with the expectation on Kalinskaya's shoulders after being the underdog in the last couple of Rounds, but she has shown she can handle those in the earlier Rounds and can be backed to win the biggest title of her career.

MY PICKS: Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 18-13, + 5.50 Units (62 Units Staked, + 8.87% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Edgar Berlanga vs Paddy McCrory (February 24th)

It might not be a weekend for the casual Boxing fan, but a big event in Japan and the chance for a fighter to cement himself as a real contender in the Super Middleweight Division should make for good viewing.

March looks like it will begin with a quality Featherweight World Title bout for a vacant Belt and the month will be concluded by PBC's first card being shown on Amazon.

We also have the big crossover fight between Anthony Joshua and Francis Ngannou in between and a few domestic level cards that will be of interest as some of the winners look to press forward towards the World level.

Another solid return from a weekend of Boxing action has just pushed the numbers into a decent position as we get ready to conclude the first two months of the 2024 season.

It could have been better, but it could have been a lot worse and that is important.

Being in front is clearly better than being behind and another strong weekend will put an exclamation point on the first couple of months of the year.

Edgar Berlanga vs Paddy McCrory

There is still a lot of uncertainty about who Canelo Alvarez will pick for his May showcase fight and Edgar Berlanga's promoter Eddie Hearn is hoping his man can produce a massive highlight reel kind of victory that will be followed by a callout of the Mexican.

Sixteen straight wins and all of those inside the First Round built the reputation and the hype around Edgar Berlanga, but the last five victories have all been on the cards.

Like many will state, the feeling is that the Rounds Edgar Berlanga has banked in recent bouts will have grown him as a fighter.

He is showing the power remains, but Berlanga will be looking to make a bigger statement when facing Paddy McCrory.

Any unbeaten opponent has to be respected, and Paddy McCrory is going to know this is a big opportunity for him to gatecrash the top of the Division.

At 35 years old, time is not really on Paddy McCrory's side and this is a considerable step up compared with his usual level of opponent. The expectation is that he will not be hard to find in the ring, but that should only play to Edgar Berlanga's advantage and this looks to be the kind of opponent that can have the favourite looking very good and pressing fans to push for Berlanga to be involved in big fights going forward.

There has been talk about the Paddy McCrory power and he has Stoppages in half of the eighteen wins secured in his unbeaten pro career, but this is a considerable step up from his usual level of opponent. He has spoken about not having the same opportunities as others so this should be a big effort from the underdog, but it may also mean being forced to go out on his shield.

It has been a while, but Edgar Berlanga can finally earn his first Stoppage win since July 2020.

The fighter most may be looking forward to seeing on the undercard is Andy Cruz and he should be able to showcase his talent again. The expectation has to be that he will be fast tracked towards a World Title so look for him to step up competition after this third professional bout with his promoter already calling for an early meeting with Keyshawn Davis.

We also have Shakhram Giyasov looking to keep pushing up the World Rankings in the Welterweight Division.

Terence Crawford still holds the Division together, but is expected to move up in weight class after beating Errol Spence Jr and that will mean a number of World Titles are vacated with Giyasov right up amongst the elite left behind.

Fighting for a potentially vacant WBO World Title or for the full WBA World Title are options that will open up for Shakhram Giyasov and he can make a big statement to others in the Division.

Pablo Cesar Cano will be coming up in weight for this challenge and the veteran will be looking to use all of his experience to test his unbeaten opponent.

However, early Stoppage defeats in recent fights at the weight class below is a concern and this could be another for the Mexican to absorb.

There is a very good card taking place in Japan with a number of the home fighters looking to continue pushing their reputation.

Junto Nakatani is looking to become a three weight World Champion and he is a strong favourite to beat Alexandro Santiago who holds the WBO Bantamweight World Title.

This is a proper test for the home fighter and Santiago has to be respected for beating Nonito Donaire last time out to take the World Title from the future Hall of Fame fighter.

I do think Nakatani will have enough to win, but it will be a good watch to see whether the power has carried up to this weight class. The most likely outcome is a win on the cards, but it will be a watching brief.

Naoya Inoue's brother is also in action on the undercard and Takuma Inoue can just edge the decision to retain his WBA Bantamweight World Title. Perhaps this will lead to a huge Unification in Japan against Junto Nakatani if both are successful, although there is a natural rivalry between Jason Moloney and Nakatani if both are holding World Titles by the end of the first half of the season.

Kosei Tanaka can also win on the loaded card that takes place on Saturday morning for those of us in the United Kingdom.

MY PICKS: Edgar Berlanga to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Shakhram Giyasov to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 10-13, + 9.31 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 23rd February)

This has been a decent enough week, but there are still those matches that 'got away' and it is very hard to make much sense of the way Marketa Vondrousova was beaten in her Quarter Final against Sorana Cirstea.

Leading 6-2, 5-1, the Wimbledon Champion missed multiple Match Points and failed to serve out the match on three separate occasions in a defeat that will potentially linger for some time.

She will have an opportunity to recover over the next month with some big hard court events to be played, but it is frustrating for the Tennis Picks to not have a stronger day when a loss like that one hits the board.

It was better in other events, but there is still a couple of days to negotiate before this week can be stamped as the first positive one of the season or not.

Selections from the two ATP events in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, if there are any selections, and the week totals will be updated at that time too.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Anna Kalinskaya: A dominant run through the Middle East in the last couple of years would have made Iga Swiatek the favourite to win the tournament in Dubai this week and the World Number 1 has not let anyone down.

With her main rivals all exiting before the Semi Final, Iga Swiatek is now a very strong favourite to pick up the title on Saturday.

However, she made it clear in her post match interview on Thursday that Swiatek is taking nothing for granted and she will have to give Anna Kalinskaya plenty of respect considering the start the Russian player has made to the 2024 season.

She reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open and Kalinskaya has won six matches in Dubai after coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draw. Her win over Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final on Thursday will have really gotten people to take notice and Anna Kalinskaya has only dropped the one set in her run at this WTA 1000 event.

The World Number 40 is making good use of a heavy serve and strong groundstrokes and those really make a big impact on the courts here in Dubai. It is certainly going to make Anna Kalinskaya a threat to Iga Swiatek, although the Polish player is on very strong form and has a pretty solid serve of her own.

The difference is that Iga Swiatek has been a little more productive on the return of serve and she may be a bit more solid than Coco Gauff if she is able to get in front as the American did in the Quarter Final.

One of the best front runners on the Tour, Iga Swiatek can find a way to break down the Anna Kalinskaya game and the return of serve may prove to be a bit too strong for a much improved player. When she was beaten in Melbourne, Anna Kalinskaya just fell away against Qinwen Zheng and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will be able to break her down in this Semi Final.

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: The defending Champion has made serene progress through the first couple of Rounds in Rio de Janeiro, but Cameron Norrie has to be expecting a much sterner test in the Quarter Final.

For starters this will be the first time this week that he will be facing a home player and the crowds in South America can really play a big part in the outcome of matches.

His opponent, Thiago Seyboth Wild, has been doing just enough to make his way through his opening two matches and that will have built up some confidence. While he will need to be a lot better than he was in the First Round, Seyboth Wild was stronger in the Second Round win and has shown plenty of promise on the clay courts over the last twelve months, even if the start to 2024 has been underwhelming.

Serving well will be very important for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just make sure he is keeping his side of the scoreboard ticking over. That is certainly going to at least put some pressure on Cameron Norrie, who has loved the conditions at this event and who has been dominant behind serve so far this week.

Anything below par will give Cameron Norrie the opportunity to attack Thiago Seyboth Wild and the World Number 23 has just shown a bit more sign of returning to his top level.

Beating a home player who has built up some momentum is never easy, but Cameron Norrie did beat Brazilian Thiago Monteiro on his way to winning the title in Rio de Janeiro last year and he can get the better of this home hope.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 17-12, + 5.84 Units (58 Units Staked, + 10.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 22nd February)

The Tennis continues on Thursday, although the tournament in Rio de Janeiro looks like it is going to be hit hard by the weather through the remaining few days there.

That is not the case for the WTA Dubai event and the two ATP tournaments in Doha and Los Cabos and the Tennis Picks will be added to this thread.

However, the time zones and the faster than usual nature of the scheduling this week means the markets are taking a little longer to be put together. That is contributing to the need to add selections after the initial thread is posted and that remains the situation.

Rain has meant the entire Second Round of the Rio de Janeiro tournament has been pushed into Thursday and both selections from Wednesday will be completed then. The week update is of every match that has been completed with a full result and that is at the bottom of the thread, while selections from the two tournaments played in the Western part of the world have also been added.

Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: Some of the bigger names have had a challenging time working their way through to the WTA Dubai Quarter Final and the same could be said for Marketa Vondrousova, the Wimbledon Champion.

Well that certainly could have been said about her Second Round win over Payton Stearns as the Czech player came through a decider, but she was much stronger in the Third Round win on Wednesday.

After a relatively disappointing start to the season, Marketa Vondrousova has to be pleased with the level shown in Dubai through the first couple of matches. It is the return of serve that has been really effective for her and only a slight improvement in the serving numbers will be needed if Vondrousova wants to start stringing some wins together.

She will have to be very much focused on this Quarter Final opponent Sorana Cirstea who continues to enjoy playing some of her best tennis of her career just when it felt like she should be past her prime.

Even a defeat on Thursday will not prevent Sorana Cirstea from heading back to her peak career World Ranking which was achieved eleven years ago, while further successes in Dubai may finally see the Romanian crack the top 20 of the Rankings for the first time.

That has to be the ambition for Sorana Cirstea going forward and she will be happy with her own level in Dubai having won three matches and fighting back from what looked like being a losing effort in her win over Donna Vekic. Over two hours were needed for Sorana Cirstea to win that match and it will be interesting to see if she can recover physically as well as mentally to prepare for this Quarter Final.

It has been a solid start to 2024 for Cirstea and her first serve can be a very strong weapon when operating at its best. However, too many second serves will give Marketa Vondrousova the impetus to take control of rallies and it may give the Wimbledon Champion an opportunity to turn the tables after two closes losses to this opponent over the last eighteen months.

Both were on hard courts so there will be a confidence in Sorana Cirstea when she enters this match, but Marketa Vondrousova may feel she has just missed out when the big points have been played in those defeats and this time she could be playing well enough to turn things around. That will be 'easier' to do if Cirstea is feeling the efforts of her Third Round win and the Czech lefty can be backed to find a way through to the Semi Final.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: Over the next three months, Iga Swiatek has a lot of World Ranking points to defend, but she has an opportunity to extend the gap to World Number 2 Aryna Sabalenka with a strong end to the tournament in Dubai.

Adding the Miami Masters to her schedule will give Swiatek a bit of room for error, while the World Number 1 remains the player to beat when the clay court events roll around.

Playing through the Middle East has been a very positive time for Iga Swiatek and she reached the Final in Dubai last year having won the title in Doha. She has already defended that title and Iga Swiatek is going to be tough to stop in her bid to win the title here too.

The Australian Open Runner Up may have something to say about that and Qinwen Zheng has looked pretty decent in the last couple of Rounds after an early loss in Doha. There are still some questions for the World Number 7 to answer despite reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final and that is largely down to the lack of top quality opponents that have been beaten so far.

Qinwen Zheng did beat Marketa Vondrousova at the United Cup in January, but after that, the highest Ranked player she has beaten in 2024 is World Number 35 Anastasia Potapova. That win was earned in the Third Round on Wednesday, but it is hard to ignore that Zheng has been well beaten in both matches played against Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek this season and was pretty poor in her loss to Leylah Fernandez last week.

Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has a 6-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents and that falls to 3-5 against the top 10. On the face of it that is not too bad, but the likes of Elena Rybakina, Swiatek and Sabalenka are a different proving ground for Qinwen Zheng.

She has lost all five previous matches against Iga Swiatek, including all three played on the hard courts.

Credit has to be given to Qinwen Zheng for the fact she has taken a set from the World Number 1 in two of the three hard court matches, but she has not been able to maintain the level required and all of the defeats have been relatively comfortable by the end of the match.

The first serve will be crucial for Qinwen Zheng, but there is room for improvement behind the second serve and her return of serve and these are areas that Iga Swiatek should exploit.

In the last two hard court matches between the two, Iga Swiatek has really taken hold of the return of serve and something similar in Dubai is likely going to lead to another strong win for the top player on the WTA Tour.

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The biggest challenge for Ugo Humbert may be the fact he is facing one of the big names in recent French Tennis history.

However, Ugo Humbert has played Gael Monfils twice before and he has to be feeling very confident having won a title already this month and sitting in the top 20 of the World Rankings.

Gael Monfils is still plenty athletic around the court and he is capable of some big serving, which does make him dangerous.

He has played just about well enough in the first two matches in Doha to reach this Quarter Final, but Monfils is playing on the fine margins and someone like Ugo Humbert is playing well enough to force the veteran on the back foot.

It is much more difficult to keep making the big plays when put under pressure and the feeling is that Ugo Humbert will break down the Gael Monfils game.

This has the potential of being an awkward spread, but Humbert can do enough to move into the Semi Final behind another decent win in 2024.

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 games v Facundo Diaz Acosta: He is playing at a career high World Ranking after winning the title in Buenos Aires so Facundo Diaz Acosta will not be lacking for confidence.

A win over Stan Wawrinka in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro will have furthered that belief in his own tennis, but Diaz Acosta will remember a painful lesson that was dished out by Sebastian Baez just a couple of weeks ago.

This one is expected to be closer, but Baez continues to show he is a confident and solid clay courter and the expectation is that he franks the win he had over Facundo Diaz Acosta in Cordoba.

It is a tough spot for the lower Ranked of the compatriots having played all through last week, and that should give Sebastian Baez the narrow edge to progress with a win and a cover.

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 games v Alex Michelsen: Both of these players have come through for me this week so it is is not easy to oppose either, but the expectation was that Jordan Thompson would be a stronger favourite than he is.

The Australian has continued playing at an extremely solid level when not facing the very top players on the Tour and the last month has been very good to him.

Jordan Thompson will be hoping a little bit of inexperience from Alex Michelsen also perhaps aids him in this match.

Alex Michelsen crushed Alex De Minaur in the Second Round for what may be his biggest Tour win in his career, but backing those up can be difficult the first couple of times around. That will be the challenge for him against someone like Jordan Thompson who is playing with a lot of confidence right now.

I do think the potential in Alex Michelsen is higher than Jordan Thompson has had in his career, but at this moment, the latter is playing well enough to just serve well enough and put enough pressure on his younger opponent to find a way past him into the Los Cabos Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Week Update: 14-8, + 8.70 Units (44 Units Staked, + 19.77% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 21st February)

The first three days in Dubai are always extremely busy with the tournament looking for a Saturday finish, despite having a big field entering, and the entire Second Round was played on Tuesday.

All eight Third Round matches are scheduled for Wednesday in what is another busy day at the tournament, while the ATP events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro are moving into Second Round action.

There were a number of selections from the Tuesday action in Dubai, but the Wednesday matches look much tougher to predict.

Any Picks from the two ATP tournaments played in South America and Central America will be added to this thread on Wednesday, as will the week's totals.

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: A poor end to 2023 looked to be behind Maria Sakkari when playing at the United Cup in January, but a disappointing Second Round exit at the Australian Open would have knocked some of the confidence.

Opening losses in Abu Dhabi and Doha have just increased the pressure around Maria Sakkari and it is no surprise that the World Number 11 has decided to make changes. It was announced that a six year Coaching arrangement with Tom Hill was to be ended and Sakkari is now looking for a new voice to take her forward.

Julien Cagnina looks to have taken over the role for now and Maria Sakkari was able to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round on Tuesday. That is a pretty solid win for someone who had lost three matches in a row and Sakkari has to be very happy with the level she produced in that victory.

Backing it up will be the big challenge for Maria Sakkari, but she looks to have a decent enough match up in front of her in the Third Round against Jasmine Paolini.

The Italian has upset Beatriz Haddad Maia and Leylah Fernandez to make it through to the Third Round and so there has to be plenty of respect given to Jasmine Paolini. However, it should also be noted that she has been a touch fortunate at key times within those matches and Jasmine Paolini had also been beaten in three matches in a row before the wins Dubai to restore some confidence.

Both of these players will be happy with their return abilities, but the key to the outcome of the match could be the Maria Sakkari second serve. This is a shot that she has looked after a little more effectively than Jasmine Paolini has been able to do with her own second serve and may see them separated in this Third Round contest.

Maria Sakkari did win their sole previous match at the French Open in 2021, but that is not really relevant to this one.

You have to respect the fight that Jasmine Paolini is likely to bring to the court, but the hard court should favour Maria Sakkari who can find a way to cover this spread on her way to a spot in the Dubai Quarter Finals.

Alexander Bublik v Marton Fucsovics: The only selection from Dubai is followed by the only selection from the ATP Doha Second Round.

All of the matches in that Round are scheduled to be played on Wednesday and there was almost enough in the Jakub Mensik price to beat Andy Murray to entice that selection.

However, the favourite has been switched in that match and the selection comes from this pick 'em match.

It is never easy to trust Alexander Bublik because he is a player that will choose poor shot selections if it means rattling an opponent or exciting a crowd. Sometimes it works and Bublik did win a title in Montpellier earlier this month, but he has had some poor losses already in 2024.

While he is erratic, Marton Fucsovics is a solid competitor on the Tour even if he has dropped down into World Number 80. The Hungarian produced a strong First Round win, but this has not been a great match up for him and Marton Fucsovics has lost his last three matches against Alexander Bublik and not been nearly as competitive as he would have hoped.

The last of those was in 2022 so may not mean as much right now, but Alexander Bublik is playing at a slightly stronger level on the returning side of his tennis and that may end up working him through to the Quarter Finals.

In the previous head to head, Bublik has had a returning edge over Marton Fucsovics, while he has had a slight edge on the hard courts over the last twelve month period.

Nothing will be easy in this match and the fine margins will decide it, but Alexander Bublik can get on top of the biggest points to earn a path through to the next Round of the ATP Doha event.

Rain meant one of the Tennis Picks from the tournament in Rio had to be postponed until today, but there is also a case to add another couple of selections from that event which is moving into the Second Round.

One of those is backing Jaume Munar to get the better of home player Thiago Seyboth Wild- the Spaniard has won all three previous meetings and looks to be playing the superior tennis, although the home crowd will be firmly behind Seyboth Wild.

However, the latter is going to have to be a lot better than in the First Round if he is going to find a way through and Munar has beaten Thiago Seyboth Wild on a Brazilian clay court before.

The expectation is also that Cameron Norrie, the defending Champion, can cover another pretty wide spread as he moves into the Quarter Final. His opponent Tomas Barrios Vera has not been in very good form through the South American Golden Swing and has not faced opponents of this level very often of late.

The entire Second Round of the Los Cabos tournament is to be played on Wednesday with another Saturday Final scheduled.

While the markets took a while to be put up, the only match of interest for me was the one involving Jordan Thompson.

The Australian has been in fine form in Dallas and Delray Beach and is making a solid habit of beating those he is expected to, as will be the case in the Second Round here.

Serving as well as he has been will put considerable pressure on Emilio Nava and Thompson has been returning well enough to give him a chance of covering this mark.

I also liked Marcos Giron to get the better of Casper Ruud, who has not been playing much competitive tennis since the exit at the Australian Open. However, the layers are anticipating the upset and so the sole selection from this event is one the highlighted.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 12-6, + 9.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 20th February)

The WTA tournament being played in Dubai is using a big format and that means they are rushing through the Rounds.

To put it another way, the First Round may have been split over two days, but the entire Second Round is scheduled to be completed on Tuesday. This will mean the Third Round is played on Wednesday, the Quarter Finals on Thursday and the Semi Final and Final will be completed on Friday and Saturday.

Sixteen Second Round matches are set to be played on Tuesday and a number of courts are being used on what is going to be an extremely busy day for a tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.

Matches are also scheduled for the tournaments being run by the ATP Tour, although the Picks, if any, from Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, as will the weekly update once all of the Monday scheduled matches are completed.

There are not going to be any Picks from the ATP Doha matches scheduled for Tuesday- the only one that even had me a little interested to find an angle proved unappealing in the end and that will be a tournament that will hopefully provide more options as we move into the Second Round and beyond.

Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: It was perhaps not as easy as the final scoreboard might have suggested, but Leylah Fernandez did play well enough to earn her spot in the Second Round at the WTA Dubai event. This keeps some positive momentum behind the Canadian who had not had the best start to 2024, but who played well in Doha last week and looks to have brung that form into this latest WTA 1000 tournament.

She was a favourite to beat Bernarda Pera and Leylah Fernandez will be the favourite again when she takes on Italian Jasmine Paolini in the Second Round.

Jasmine Paolini has had to Qualify for the WTA Dubai event in the last couple of years and managed to do that each time, but she had not won a main draw match until beating Beatriz Haddad Maia in the First Round on Sunday. The fightback within that match will have given Jasmine Paolini confidence and she is playing on a career high World Ranking mark.

Unsurprisingly there have been plenty of successes on the clay courts, but Paolini is a solid enough hard court player who deserves to be respected. She reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and Jasmine Paolini has been able to snap a three match losing run in coming from behind to beat Haddad Maia.

There is no doubt that there is still room for improvement in her tennis on the hard courts- over the last twelve months it has been seen that the Paolini serve can be a little vulnerable when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface. That puts a bit more pressure on the return, which is clearly more challenging on the faster surfaces compared with her favoured clay courts.

You may not always expect Leylah Fernandez to have very strong serving numbers, but she does look after that shot well enough. If the Canadian can get enough first serves in play, she will believe she can dictate the tempo of this match and that will be key for Fernandez as she looks to earn a place in the Third Round.

The head to head will certainly give Leylah Fernandez plenty of confidence too having won all three previous matches against Jasmine Paolini. All of those have been on the hard courts and Fernandez is yet to drop a set, while the two most recent wins were both played in 2023.

Leylah Fernandez has had a clear edge in her serving games in the two wins produced over Jasmine Paolini last season and she won 51% of points played against the Paolini serve. That is likely to be the key to this match and the former US Open Runner Up can find a way to win and cover as she progresses to the Third Round of back to back tournaments in the Middle East.

Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 games v Payton Stearns: A win over Mirra Andreeva should give Payton Stearns a boost in confidence as she snapped a four match losing run to open her 2024 season.

It was a back and forth match against the talented teenager, but Stearns was able to come out on top and move into this Second Round match against Marketa Vondrousova.

After playing well at the US Open in September, Payton Stearns has really struggled for form in her hard court matches. Following her Fourth Round exit in New York City, Stearns had been on a 3-9 run on the Tour in hard court matches before getting the better of Andreeva in the First Round.

Marketa Vondrousova has not exactly been at her best level in 2024 herself, but there were some signs that she was getting closer last week in Doha. She had chances in her loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, although there are some question marks about Vondrousova's current form and whether she can cover such a big handicap mark.

She has beaten Payton Stearns pretty comfortably in the two previous matches- one of those was at Wimbledon, a tournament Marketa Vondrousova went on to win, and the other was at the US Open.

Much like Payton Stearns, Marketa Vondrousova followed the US Open with a relatively poor run of form that has seeped into the 2024 season.

However, over the last twelve months, Stearns has struggled to a 1-8 record when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and her numbers have been pretty poor in that time too. While it is very difficult to trust Marketa Vondrousova on her current form, she has tended to be good enough to beat those outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and the Czech player has had an edge in the serving numbers when facing Payton Stearns.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Liudmila Samsonova: It looks a good opportunity to back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to continue her strong form from Doha as a slight underdog in this Second Round match.

A relatively comfortable win was produced in the First Round and there should not be any excuses about a long week in Doha in preventing Pavlyuchenkova from finding her best tennis in Dubai. The lack of distance between the tournaments and the fact that her Semi Final defeat was last Friday means there has been ample time to recover as Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looks to get the better of her compatriot.

It had been a poor start to 2024 for Liudmila Samsonova who lost her first three matches, including a First Round exit at the Australian Open, but she had a solid run in Abu Dhabi.

Like her opponent, Samsonova found Elena Rybakina too hot to handle in that Semi Final in Abu Dhabi before another early exit in Doha last week. However, a solid First Round win in Dubai will have given Liudmila Samsonova a bit more confidence and she will know that her serve can be a massive weapon on relatively quick hard courts.

However, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can produce some dangerous serving of her own and looks to be playing with a bit more consistency of the two Russians.

Out of the two players, Pavlyuchenkova has been getting slightly more out of the return of serve and that could be key in a match that may come down to the fine margins.

Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 games v Cristina Bucsa: The run to the Australian Open Quarter Final would have come as a surprise to those outside of Anna Kalinskaya's team. The challenge for the player is backing up that performance and building on reaching a new career high World Ranking, which is why the early defeat in Doha would have been a blow.

She has battled through the Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw in Dubai and Anna Kalinskaya has won all three matches at the tournament without dropping a set.

This will have restored any drop in confidence and the hard court numbers in 2024 continue to impress.

Anna Kalinskaya deserves to be set as the favourite in this Second Round match against Cristina Bucsa who is playing in her third tournament this season as a Lucky Loser. She was beaten in the final Dubai Qualifier by Storm Sanders, but benefits from Ons Jabeur's subsequent withdrawal.

Cristina Bucsa did reach the Abu Dhabi Quarter Final as a Lucky Loser and she will feel this draw gives her a chance of extending her run in this tournament too. However, the Spaniard has not produced the same level as her opponent so far in 2024, especially when not playing the better players on the Tour, while Anna Kalinskaya will have fond memories of beating Bucsa in straight sets in Brisbane in January.

There was a massive edge in favour of the Russian on the return that day, but this match is expected to be closer. Of course it can't really be expected to be as one-sided as when Kalinskaya dropped just two games, but even a closer match is one in which the favourite can win and cover.

As long as Anna Kalinskaya can look after her own serve, the pressure should build on the Cristina Bucsa serve and the World Number 40 can find the breaks she needs to progress with some comfort.

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 games v Nao Hibino: Any time a player reaches a Grand Slam Final, the target on their back will increase in size and opponents will really try and knock someone from off of their perch.

A 'nothing to lose' kind of approach to those matches can make it tough for the Grand Slam Finalist and especially when it has come unexpectedly.

Qinwen Zheng reached the Final at the Australian Open, but you have to factor in the way the draw opened up for her before she was well beaten in the Final by Aryna Sabalenka. Her performance in Doha was inconsistent to say the least and so it is perhaps a difficult spot in which to trust her to win, never mind cover a spread like this one.

However, Nao Hibino is not playing to the level she once was and she has suffered some one-sided defeats on the hard courts in 2024. Three wins in Dubai will have just given Hibino a boost in confidence to take into this Second Round match against an opponent who received a Bye through to this stage of the tournament, although the World Number 93 will know there is a considerable talent gap to bridge.

The Japanese player has always been comfortable on the hard courts, but she has a vulnerable serve and especially when she has been playing top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months.

You don't always know what you are going to get from the Qinwen Zheng return, but she does have a big serve and that should at least contain some of the threat that Nao Hibino will bring to the court. Nao Hibino's return numbers have been pretty poor against the top players on the Tour over the last twelve months and it will build scoreboard pressure in favour of Zheng.

Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has won all fourteen hard court matches against players Ranked outside the top 50. The serve has dominated and she has won 47% of the return points played in those matches too.

Covering a spread like this one has been an issue with eight failures in those fourteen wins, but Nao Hibino has struggled to stay competitive within matches so Qinwen Zheng can be backed for a rare big cover here.

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Ashlyn Krueger: The biggest question about this Second Round match is how well Karolina Pliskova has recovered having played a lot of tennis over the last couple of weeks.

Winning the title in Cluj and then fighting her way through to the Doha Semi Final took its toll on the former World Number 1 and she was not able to compete in that match against Iga Swiatek.

Karolina Pliskova was able to beat veteran Shuai Zhang in the First Round, although that win is not massively impressive considering how long the latter has been out of competitive action. It was a solid, if unspectacular, performance from Karolina Pliskova and she may need to be a bit better when facing Ashlyn Krueger.

Coming from a set down to beat Caroline Garcia and having Monday as a day of rest is a benefit for the American, although it has been a relative struggle to find consistency for the 19 year old. She has put a few wins on the board in 2024, but Ashlyn Krueger knows the majority of those have been in Qualifying Rounds and this is a much tougher test.

None of the matches have been 'easy' though and wins over top 100 Ranked players have been racked up.

That will give Krueger confidence and she has been able to exert some control of matches with her serve. The teenager will need to serve well if Karolina Pliskova is bringing her best form to the court and the feeling is that the Czech player will ultimately have a bit too much know-how at this stage of their respective careers.

Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 games v Lulu Sun: It looked like the run of beating everyone she has faced but Victoria Azarenka in 2024 might have been under threat when dropping four games in a row to lose the first set.

In previous years this might have ended up seeing Jelena Ostapenko just self-combust, but she has shown decent mental strength to recover and ultimately move through to the Second Round in Dubai without too many issues.

The Latvian will be a big favourite when playing Lulu Sun, the 22 year old from Switzerland who is Ranked outside the top 200 but who has been given a Wild Card into the Dubai tournament. A win over Paula Badosa should be a huge boost for Lulu Sun, even though the match ended prematurely at the end of the first set, while she did Qualify for main draw matches in Auckland and at the Australian Open.

It is still a big leap upwards to face Ostapenko in the form she has been in, while Sun had not been competitive in her two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents before beating Paula Badosa.

In fact she had never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts prior to the First Round here in Dubai and Lulu Sun had struggled to be very competitive. The first serve has been decent enough, but the second is vulnerable and finding enough quality on the return of serve is something the young player is still trying to develop.

An aggressive player like Jelena Ostapenko is likely going to offer a stern examination of the Lulu Sun game and the feeling is that the World Number 11 will continue her strong form to open this season.

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: She reached the Final in Auckland before narrowly losing to Coco Gauff and Elina Svitolina looked to be motoring in another strong Grand Slam effort at the Australian Open.

Three wins in straight sets took the Ukrainian into the Fourth Round in Melbourne, but an unexpected and shocking back issue forced Elina Svitolina to withdraw from that Fourth Round match after just three games had been played.

She has not really been able to explain what happened and Svitolina has spent some time away following the Australian Open, but she was able to produce a strong First Round win on Monday.

Now there is every chance Elina Svitolina can back that up against another veteran Tatjana Maria who has had a difficult start to the season. Her win in the First Round will be a boost, but Maria has suffered some extremely one-sided losses this season and it may be a tough match up for her in this one.

The five losses that Tatjana Maria has suffered this season have been by margins of eleven, seven, six, eleven and ten games- when she has lost, she has lost very, very easily.

The concern for her fans is that Tatjana Maria lost her last two hard court matches against Elina Svitolina in one-sided fashion, albeit the last of those was back in the 2018 US Open. Much has changed for both players in that time, but Elina Svitolina is still playing at a decent level after returning from giving birth and the edge has to be with the higher Ranked player.

Take away the retirement at the Australian Open and Elina Svitolina has won ten straight hard court matches against opponents Ranked outside the top 20. Strong serving has set her on her way and Elina Svitolina can get plenty of joy in the return during this Second Round to produce a strong win.

Adding the Tennis Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Los Cabos with a few thoughts on those.

I do think both Sebastian Baez and Arthur Fils should both be able to cover big spreads- the former has been in decent form on the clay courts, while the latter is confident enough on the surface and taking on a young, inexperienced opponent.

Both of those players are competing in Rio, but in Los Cabos the play is on Marcos Giron to maintain the fine run of form he has been in through the month of February.

Taro Daniel can be dangerous on the hard courts, but Giron is playing well enough to grind him down and cover this relatively big handicap mark.

There are a couple of underdogs that could certainly thrive in the First Round in Los Cabos, but neither Flavio Cobolli nor Nuno Borges convinced me to add them to the selections.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 5-4, + 0.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 19th February)

The run through the Middle East before the majority of the Tour moves to the United States for back to back Masters events is an important time for many top names on the WTA and ATP.

It is especially the case for the WTA players with the events in Doha and Dubai both classed as 1000 events, while the ATP events in the same two venues are at 250 and 500 level.

Iga Swiatek won the title in Doha when getting the better of Elena Rybakina and both players will be looking to back up that run in Dubai. Another player in action is Australian Open Champion Aryna Sabalenka who competes for the first time since winning that Grand Slam title and only Jessica Pegula is unable to perform out of the very top players on this side of the Tour.

This should mean another strong event, although the Seeds tumbled very early last week- eventually the cream did rise to the top, but it does make the early Rounds a minefield to negotiate.

First Round action is completed in Dubai on Monday and the ATP events in Doha, Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro are move into main draw action too. With the massive time differences between events, prices for markets are not always out in good time in London and so some of the threads will have Picks added to them as has been the case through the start of the month.

The Tennis season has been very difficult so far and the month has been a poor one after the disappointment of the Australian Open.

This week has not started very well either, but it is only the start of the week and this is the time where the turnaround has to begin- that does put some pressure on the selections, but the demand for better has always been around the Tennis Picks and so the situation is not very different to normal.

However, things do have to change compared with the way they have been going- while the month has not been nearly as crushing as the start in January, it is very important to try and put a positive week on the board.

Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games v Bernarda Pera: The big tournament in Dubai is an opportunity for players like Leylah Fernandez and Bernarda Pera to push their World Ranking much higher than their current positions. Both have enjoyed operating at a higher level previously, but it has been a tough twelve months for both Fernandez and Pera as they prepare to face off in the WTA Dubai First Round.

Having to come through the Qualifiers at events in 2024 has given Bernarda Pera some confidence to take into matches- she has already won two matches in Dubai so the conditions are clearly going to be comfortable for Pera.

She had to come from behind to win both Qualifying matches, and Bernarda Pera has won plenty of Qualifiers including two in Abu Dhabi earlier this month. However, she has only won one of her main draw matches in 2024 and the American is facing an opponent who had a decent run in Doha last week to build some confidence of her own.

It feels like a lot of time has passed since Leylah Fernandez reached the US Open Final and she has never really been able to produce that kind of success since.

Disappointing early exits at the United Cup and Australian Open in January would have been a blow, but Leylah Fernandez won three matches in Doha last week.

She can be difficult to trust to cover a spread like this one and that is because the Fernandez game is one that operates on fine margins- the Canadian does not have an overwhelming aspect to any part of her tennis and feels more like a reactive player than a proactive one with her speed around the court one of the stronger Leylah Fernandez attributes.

These players did meet on a hard court in Washington last season and Leylah Fernandez was a relatively comfortable winner.

The return game of both players has not been good enough to compete with the very top players on the Tour, but Leylah Fernandez does have a slight edge over Bernarda Pera in her serving numbers. It was also the case when they met in Washington several months ago and the Canadian can find a way to win and cover in this First Round match.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 games v Marie Bouzkova: Another strong showing in Doha has pushed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova back towards her natural place on the WTA Tour. Injury had contributed to a slip down the World Rankings, but she reached the Semi Final in Doha on Friday and Pavlyuchenkova will be looking to back that up with the short move to Dubai for another WTA 1000 event.

This is not an easy First Round match, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been serving well in 2024 and that has contributed to winning more often than not.

First up for the Russian is a match against Marie Bouzkova who had reached her career best World Ranking fourteen months ago, but who has lost four of her last five matches having begun the year by reaching the Quarter Final in Auckland.

Confidence will have been affected by that run of results, but Bouzkova has to be respected with her performances perhaps a little stronger than those results have been.

However this looks like a tough test for Marie Bouzkova.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has really been playing well against those players Ranked outside the top 20 and her numbers have been very impressive in those matches. If she can maintain that level, Pavlyuchenkova should have the ability to win this First Round contest and cover the spread set.

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 games v Xiyu Wang: The suggestion is that Jelena Ostapenko did not want to shake Victoria Azarenka's hand at the end of their match in Doha because of a change in policy set out by the Latvian government. Much like Ukrainian players, Latvian players are now not expected to shake hands with opponents from Russia or Belarus, but Azarenka was not buying that.

The fact is that Ostapenko offered a racquet tap and there is clearly no love lost between them.

Jelena Ostapenko has to be frustrated considering she has lost all three matches played against Victoria Azarenka in 2024- that frustration is higher when you think she has a 14-0 record against every opponent faced.

She should be good enough to see off Xiyu Wang in the First Round, even though Wang wil be feeling happy with her tennis having crushed two opponents in the Qualifiers. Xiyu Wang did not drop a set in those two wins, although this is going to be a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.

Nothing can be taken for granted in this match with Wang showing she can be very competitive if her opponent is not playing at their very best.

However, the performances against top 50 players over the last twelve months have not been good enough and Xiyu Wang has struggled on the return of serve.

There is no doubt that Jelena Ostapenko can be a little hard to trust with her overly aggressive style potentially leading to errors. She has had twelve wins against players Ranked outside the top 20 in 2024 and Ostapenko has covered this line in ten of those matches.

While it won't be easy, Ostapenko may bounce back from the disappointing defeat in Doha to put another win on the board here.

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 games v Lucia Bronzetti: A Lucky Loser has entered the main draw after Marta Kostyuk was forced to withdraw, but this is a tough match for Lucia Bronzetti.

The Abu Dhabi Runner Up was beaten early in Doha and Daria Kasatkina has had a mixed start to the season in terms of her overall level of performance.

The tennis she produces means it can be something of a challenge for Kasatkina when it comes to covering big spreads- her serve can be vulnerable and she can be outhit, but it is very difficult to trust Lucia Bronzetti to be able to push the World Number 13 when you think she has lost eight matches in a row against top 100 Ranked opponents.

The Italian has really found it tough over the last twelve months when it comes to hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents too. Lucia Bronzetti is 1-10 in those matches and her second serve has been vulnerable, while she has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as she would have liked.

As mentioned, the Daria Kasatkina serve can be vulnerable which makes it hard to cover big spreads.

However, Kasatkina has won nearly 50% of return points played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 over a twelve month period in hard court matches. That ability to put pressure on the return can show up here and Daria Kasatkina may find the breaks of serve needed to earn a relatively comfortable passage into the Second Round.

It is a pretty busy day in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro too with the First Round matches getting underway.

I do like both Alex Michelsen and Roman Safiullon to win and cover in Los Cabos- the two players are in decent nick, but their opponents have been struggling for consistency and that could show up in those First Round matches.

Over in Rio, Cameron Norrie is the defending Champion and is expected to beat Hugo Dellien despite a poor tournament in Buenos Aires last time out. It can be tough to back Norrie to cover any kind of spread with his tennis played in tight margins and the fact he can play up or down to an opponent's level, but he should have enough to win his First Round match with the breaks of serve needed.

Alejandro Tabilo is playing a home player who had a very good year on the clay courts in Thiago Seyboth Wild.

The start to 2024 has not been nearly as effective though and Seyboth Wild is going to have to serve very well if Alejandro Tabilo is operating anywhere near his best form.

Back to back wins over the Brazilian should give Tabilo confidence too and he can edge past Thiago Seyboth Wild.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex Michelsen - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roman Safiullon - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)