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Wednesday, 7 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 7th February)

There may be a number of tournaments being played, but the idea over the coming weeks is to try and narrow the focus when it comes to the Tennis Picks after the disappointing Australian Open.

Both selections from Marseille should have returned winners when Denis Shapovalov found the first break in the final set having won the second set 6-1, but the Canadian collapsed badly from that stage and only managed to win two more points in losing four games in a row to blow the match.

It will be a tough road back for Shapovalov after injury, but you could sense the disappointment of losing the match in the manner he did.

The same can be said for Andy Murray who continues to underperform in 2024 and with more and more people questioning whether he should think about calling time on his career.

I tend to agree with Murray that the choice should be down to him and him alone, although the talk of moving down to the Challenger Tour in order to rebuild confidence may be the best approach to take. Losses on the ATP Tour have destroyed some of the confidence, even if Andy Murray is still playing well in practice, and he just needs to put some wins together to restore some of the lost belief.


Tomas Machac - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There has been a continuous flow of quality WTA Tour players coming out of the Czech Republic, but the nation is still looking for someone to take over from Tomas Berdcyh on the ATP Tour.

Another Tomas may be the best player to back to do that and it was Machac who got the better of Andy Murray in the First Round.

He has played well on the hard courts for much of the opening six weeks of the season, and the youngster looks to be an improving force on the Tour.

The Second Round pits him against one of the higher Seeds in the draw.

Lorenzo Musetti has been struggling to really find consistent form on this surface over the last twelve months, but he has earned a solid win to open his time in Marseille. The difference between the two players looks to be their ability behind serve and Tomas Machac should be able to keep the pressure on the Italian in this match.

As a clay court specialist, Musetti will believe he can win the longer rallies- the feeling is that the Tomas Machac can play enough first strike tennis on this indoor court to come through though and he can pay out as the favourite.


Federico Coria - 1.5 games v Albert Ramos: These two players are very much all about playing on the clay courts as much as possible at this stage of their careers.

Both did make the trip to Melbourne to pick up a paycheque for losing in the First Round at the Australian Open, but Albert Ramos and Federico Coria have been playing clay court tennis before and afterwards.

While the Rankings remain high to take part in Grand Slam events, you would expect Ramos and Coria to travel where they need to, but the reality is that the majority of their matches will be played on this surface.

Both have enjoyed a lot of success in Cordoba in recent years at the start of the South American Golden Swing- Albert Ramos is a former Champion and has had a number of deep runs, while Federico Coria was the Runner Up here twelve months ago.

They actually faced off in the Semi Final in 2023 in Cordoba and Federico Coria dominated the match, even if the scoreboard shows a very competitive scoreline. He had 20 Break Points compared with just 8 for Albert Ramos and over the last twelve months the Coria return has been the more effective of the two players.

Albert Ramos can still cause problems with the lefty serve and that will give him a chance in this match, but Federico Coria has a very good career record against southpaws Ranked outside the top 50 and he can frank the win from last season.

Both players have had confident three set wins in the First Round and this should be plenty competitive with breaks all over the show, but Federico Coria can just use the home crowd to edge this one in his favour.


Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: The South American Golden Swing will always bring together a number of players that are used to playing clay court tennis through much of the season.

Players like Facundo Bagnis are all about trying to build their World Ranking and earn a place at Roland Garros in May, although his best hopes may be through the Qualifiers this year.

He has had to do that to take his place in the main draw in Cordoba and Bagnis will not be lacking for confidence having won three matches in this tournament already. That has backed up winning a title on the Challenger circuit on the red dirt, but this is a considerable step up from the kind of opponents Facundo Bagnis has been beating.

The home crowd will be behind him, but Roberto Carballas Baena is very comfortable on the clay courts and the World Number 65 is the first player inside the top 100 of the World Rankings that Bagnis has faced since July.

Roberto Carballas Baena had a tougher than expected win in the First Round and had to spend a considerable amount of time on the court. Coming from a set down and having to spend almost three hours on the court on Tuesday is not ideal preparation for this match on Wednesday, but the Spaniard should be used to the relative lack of recovery time.

And the fact he pushed through to win in three sets might have just got Carballas Baena adjusted to the red dirt as he looks to beat Facundo Bagnis for a fourth time in a row.

They have not played one another since July 2021 when it was Bagnis who would have been higher Ranked, but Roberto Carballas Baena is still playing at a decent level more consistently. He has edges in the return department which could show up in this Second Round match and the favourite can be backed.


Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 games v Jaume Munar: It has been a difficult few months for Francisco Cerundolo as he has lost form and confidence on the Tour. The World Number 22 has played a couple of matches on the clay courts for Argentina in the Davis Cup, but split those 1-1 and Cerundolo may be hoping the Golden Swing through his home country and neighbouring South American nations can help him restore some of the shattered belief.

He was given a Bye through to the Second Round in Cordoba as the top Seed in the draw, but Cerundolo will know that he will need to be at his best immediately if he is going to prolong his time in the tournament.

First up is Jaume Munar, a Spaniard who is very comfortable on the clay courts and who gave Francisco Cerundolo a scare at the French Open last year.

Ultimately the Argentinian was able to come through in four sets, but Munar may feel he was the better player in the two middle sets and the third set Tie-Breaker swung the match in the favour of the higher Ranked player.

Jaume Munar has earned a very solid First Round win and this is a player who can be a very effective return player on the clay courts. This is going to be a challenge for Francisco Cerundolo, who has just been lacking when it comes to consistency on the serving side of his tennis, although the top Seed should be able to put pressure on the Munar serve.

Francisco Cerundolo has been far from the most convincing player when it comes to facing those players he is expected to beat, but the 3-0 head to head over Jaume Munar will help. He crushed him in Argentina's Capital last season, although there is little doubt this one will be much more competitive.

Even with that in mind, Cerundolo should be able to play with enough quality to get the better of the Jaume Munar serve and lead to a win in front of the home fans.

MY PICKS: Tomas Machac - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Federico Coria - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.16 Units (6 Units Staked, + 19.33% Yield)

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