Six months- it comes and goes really quickly, but it is going to feel like a considerable wait before the NFL season rolls around again.
Super Bowl LVIII is played in Las Vegas this weekend and it is a case of wondering if we will have 'repeat' or 'revenge' when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers.
This should be a quality game between two of the top teams in the NFL, even if they have both not quite convinced through the post-season.
The defending Champions Kansas City have looked good, but the 49ers used up plenty of their fortune in their two PlayOff wins and the lines released by the oddsmakers suggests another close, competitive Super Bowl is ready to be played.
After a 1-1 run in the Divisional Round, there can be no complaints about the NFL Picks this season with a winning record secured.
Of course getting the Super Bowl Pick right is the ambition, but it was a very good season and gives us something to set the standard for the 2024 season later in the year.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Pick: We have a repeat of Super Bowl LIV when the Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) take on the San Francisco 49ers (14-5) in Las Vegas this weekend.
The 49ers have long been favourites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, although it should be said they were pretty fortunate to get past both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the PlayOffs. A slight bounce of the ball going in a different direction, or a couple of passes from the opponent sticking, and the 49ers may have been upset at home.
Ultimately the key point is that they have not lost those games and the manner of the wins may give the players confidence and a feeling that 'this is their season' as the 49ers look to end a relatively long drought for a Championship.
Playing in the Super Bowl has become part and parcel of the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era at the Kansas City Chiefs and this is the fourth time in five years that they are playing in the Championship Game. They have won two of the last three appearances, and are the defending Champions but the Chiefs have been playing with a chip on their shoulder having been set as the road underdog against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens in the post-season.
You just know the Chiefs were well aware of that and they upset both the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the AFC.
It has been a year when the Offensive unit have not quite been on the same page for much of it, but the Kansas City Chiefs have been able to rely on an impressive Defensive unit and that is going to be very important for them in this game.
One of the weaknesses has been stopping the run- it was a real surprise to see the Ravens abandon that part of their Offense in a game that ended up being decided by just a Touchdown. That is not likely to be the case with this San Francisco 49ers team who have a star in the backfield, Christian McCaffrey, and an Offense that will have the likes of Deebo Samuel carry the ball as they look to keep opponents guessing.
This should be the approach for the 49ers, which is not a slight on Brock Purdy.
However, the Quarter Back has made some big mistakes in the PlayOffs and he could have easily cost the 49ers one of the two PlayOff games. There have been moments and drives where Purdy has impressed, but the 49ers will like to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible and not have him throw into the Kansas City Secondary which has been playing at a high level all season.
Playing a clean game will be important for the 49ers Offense and they will feel confident enough if they can pound the rock on the ground. Third and manageable spots may give Brock Purdy an opportunity to make plays through the air, while the Quarter Back has shown he can also move out of a collapsing pocket and pick up First Downs with his legs.
Running the ball will also be an important part of the Kansas City Offense.
When you have a player of the qualities of Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back, it can be easy to lean on him and ask him to make the plays with his arm, but the 49ers Defensive Line have struggled to contain the run in the post-season. Andy Reid has had plenty of time to prepare for this game and will have noted that so the expectation is that Isiah Pacheco will be getting plenty of carries and can be very effective.
Joe Thuney is trending towards missing out and will be a huge absence at Left Guard, but the Chiefs can still have success running the ball against this 49ers Defensive Line.
That should give Kansas City a slightly more balanced Offensive game-plan compared with the San Francisco 49ers. While the Chiefs have a Secondary that have been hard to throw the ball against, the San Francisco Secondary have allowed one or two holes to be exposed by Jordan Love and Jared Goff and it was only some big dropped passes from the Lions Receivers that cost Detroit the NFC Championship Game.
Drops have been a problem for the Kansas City Receiving corps this season, but Travis Kelce has picked up his level as we have entered the PlayOffs and he is likely going to have a big impact on the game. Patrick Mahomes will put the ball where it needs to be and he is another Quarter Back capable of scrambling for First Downs when the opportunity presents itself.
It is his passing capabilities against this Secondary compared with Brock Purdy's against the Kansas City Secondary which may end up being the most important factor of the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes may not have the Receiving talent of the 49ers, but he does have a couple of solid players that will make plays for him, especially with Travis Kelce getting back up to his top level. There is little doubt that the Quarter Back will make all the throws needed, even when scrambling away from pressure, but the same cannot really be said for Brock Purdy who has been an inch away from making catastrophic mistakes.
A lucky bounce here and a massive drop there has prevented the Interceptions from racking up and this Chiefs Secondary are playing at a higher level than the teams that Brock Purdy has edged past.
The game should be competitive, and that should mean the 49ers can lean on the run, but if they fall behind in this one as they have done in the last two Rounds, you have to believe Brock Purdy will not be able to drag San Francisco out of the hole.
It really does have the makings of a very close contest- recent Super Bowls have been and even the one played between these two teams in February 2020 was very close until Kansas City broke away in the Fourth Quarter.
The expectation is that there really will not be much between the teams with both looking to control the clock on the ground, but the slight edge has to be given to the Kansas City Chiefs with their superior Quarter Back. Being in Sin City will mean every single player on the roster of the defending Champions will know they are still not being 'respected' as they have been set as the underdog for a third straight game, but Patrick Mahomes continues to not only cover, but win those games outright.
Patrick Mahomes is now 11-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, but he is also 10-3 outright in those games which is very impressive. He clearly is motivated by the spot and the expectation is we will get a very strong game out of the Quarter Back.
Having a full 3 points with the underdog would have been very appealing, but the Chiefs have every chance of winning this one outright and the strengths in the Secondary may just see the defending Champions lock down a dynasty.
Kyle Shanahan has shown he has plenty of qualities as a Head Coach, but Andy Reid is special and the extra preparation time certainly makes it hard to oppose the latter, giving the Chiefs another slight edge.
It does have me leaning, very slightly with the Kansas City Chiefs, and taking the points on offer looks the way to go. They have every chance of winning this one outright, but it would not be a surprise to see the Super Bowl go down to the wire and so the points may yet make a difference, even below a key number.
MY SUPER BOWL PICK: Kansas City Chiefs + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Championship Round: 1-1, - 0.09 Units (2 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Divisional Round: 3-1, + 1.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.50% Yield)
Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)
Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)
Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
2023 Season: 79-58-4, + 16.02 Units
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