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Tuesday, 20 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 21st February)

The first three days in Dubai are always extremely busy with the tournament looking for a Saturday finish, despite having a big field entering, and the entire Second Round was played on Tuesday.

All eight Third Round matches are scheduled for Wednesday in what is another busy day at the tournament, while the ATP events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro are moving into Second Round action.

There were a number of selections from the Tuesday action in Dubai, but the Wednesday matches look much tougher to predict.

Any Picks from the two ATP tournaments played in South America and Central America will be added to this thread on Wednesday, as will the week's totals.


Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: A poor end to 2023 looked to be behind Maria Sakkari when playing at the United Cup in January, but a disappointing Second Round exit at the Australian Open would have knocked some of the confidence.

Opening losses in Abu Dhabi and Doha have just increased the pressure around Maria Sakkari and it is no surprise that the World Number 11 has decided to make changes. It was announced that a six year Coaching arrangement with Tom Hill was to be ended and Sakkari is now looking for a new voice to take her forward.

Julien Cagnina looks to have taken over the role for now and Maria Sakkari was able to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round on Tuesday. That is a pretty solid win for someone who had lost three matches in a row and Sakkari has to be very happy with the level she produced in that victory.

Backing it up will be the big challenge for Maria Sakkari, but she looks to have a decent enough match up in front of her in the Third Round against Jasmine Paolini.

The Italian has upset Beatriz Haddad Maia and Leylah Fernandez to make it through to the Third Round and so there has to be plenty of respect given to Jasmine Paolini. However, it should also be noted that she has been a touch fortunate at key times within those matches and Jasmine Paolini had also been beaten in three matches in a row before the wins Dubai to restore some confidence.

Both of these players will be happy with their return abilities, but the key to the outcome of the match could be the Maria Sakkari second serve. This is a shot that she has looked after a little more effectively than Jasmine Paolini has been able to do with her own second serve and may see them separated in this Third Round contest.

Maria Sakkari did win their sole previous match at the French Open in 2021, but that is not really relevant to this one.

You have to respect the fight that Jasmine Paolini is likely to bring to the court, but the hard court should favour Maria Sakkari who can find a way to cover this spread on her way to a spot in the Dubai Quarter Finals.


Alexander Bublik v Marton Fucsovics: The only selection from Dubai is followed by the only selection from the ATP Doha Second Round.

All of the matches in that Round are scheduled to be played on Wednesday and there was almost enough in the Jakub Mensik price to beat Andy Murray to entice that selection.

However, the favourite has been switched in that match and the selection comes from this pick 'em match.

It is never easy to trust Alexander Bublik because he is a player that will choose poor shot selections if it means rattling an opponent or exciting a crowd. Sometimes it works and Bublik did win a title in Montpellier earlier this month, but he has had some poor losses already in 2024.

While he is erratic, Marton Fucsovics is a solid competitor on the Tour even if he has dropped down into World Number 80. The Hungarian produced a strong First Round win, but this has not been a great match up for him and Marton Fucsovics has lost his last three matches against Alexander Bublik and not been nearly as competitive as he would have hoped.

The last of those was in 2022 so may not mean as much right now, but Alexander Bublik is playing at a slightly stronger level on the returning side of his tennis and that may end up working him through to the Quarter Finals.

In the previous head to head, Bublik has had a returning edge over Marton Fucsovics, while he has had a slight edge on the hard courts over the last twelve month period.

Nothing will be easy in this match and the fine margins will decide it, but Alexander Bublik can get on top of the biggest points to earn a path through to the next Round of the ATP Doha event.


Rain meant one of the Tennis Picks from the tournament in Rio had to be postponed until today, but there is also a case to add another couple of selections from that event which is moving into the Second Round.

One of those is backing Jaume Munar to get the better of home player Thiago Seyboth Wild- the Spaniard has won all three previous meetings and looks to be playing the superior tennis, although the home crowd will be firmly behind Seyboth Wild.

However, the latter is going to have to be a lot better than in the First Round if he is going to find a way through and Munar has beaten Thiago Seyboth Wild on a Brazilian clay court before.

The expectation is also that Cameron Norrie, the defending Champion, can cover another pretty wide spread as he moves into the Quarter Final. His opponent Tomas Barrios Vera has not been in very good form through the South American Golden Swing and has not faced opponents of this level very often of late.


The entire Second Round of the Los Cabos tournament is to be played on Wednesday with another Saturday Final scheduled.

While the markets took a while to be put up, the only match of interest for me was the one involving Jordan Thompson.

The Australian has been in fine form in Dallas and Delray Beach and is making a solid habit of beating those he is expected to, as will be the case in the Second Round here.

Serving as well as he has been will put considerable pressure on Emilio Nava and Thompson has been returning well enough to give him a chance of covering this mark.

I also liked Marcos Giron to get the better of Casper Ruud, who has not been playing much competitive tennis since the exit at the Australian Open. However, the layers are anticipating the upset and so the sole selection from this event is one the highlighted.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 12-6, + 9.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)

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