Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 23rd February)

This has been a decent enough week, but there are still those matches that 'got away' and it is very hard to make much sense of the way Marketa Vondrousova was beaten in her Quarter Final against Sorana Cirstea.

Leading 6-2, 5-1, the Wimbledon Champion missed multiple Match Points and failed to serve out the match on three separate occasions in a defeat that will potentially linger for some time.

She will have an opportunity to recover over the next month with some big hard court events to be played, but it is frustrating for the Tennis Picks to not have a stronger day when a loss like that one hits the board.

It was better in other events, but there is still a couple of days to negotiate before this week can be stamped as the first positive one of the season or not.

Selections from the two ATP events in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, if there are any selections, and the week totals will be updated at that time too.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Anna Kalinskaya: A dominant run through the Middle East in the last couple of years would have made Iga Swiatek the favourite to win the tournament in Dubai this week and the World Number 1 has not let anyone down.

With her main rivals all exiting before the Semi Final, Iga Swiatek is now a very strong favourite to pick up the title on Saturday.

However, she made it clear in her post match interview on Thursday that Swiatek is taking nothing for granted and she will have to give Anna Kalinskaya plenty of respect considering the start the Russian player has made to the 2024 season.

She reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open and Kalinskaya has won six matches in Dubai after coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draw. Her win over Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final on Thursday will have really gotten people to take notice and Anna Kalinskaya has only dropped the one set in her run at this WTA 1000 event.

The World Number 40 is making good use of a heavy serve and strong groundstrokes and those really make a big impact on the courts here in Dubai. It is certainly going to make Anna Kalinskaya a threat to Iga Swiatek, although the Polish player is on very strong form and has a pretty solid serve of her own.

The difference is that Iga Swiatek has been a little more productive on the return of serve and she may be a bit more solid than Coco Gauff if she is able to get in front as the American did in the Quarter Final.

One of the best front runners on the Tour, Iga Swiatek can find a way to break down the Anna Kalinskaya game and the return of serve may prove to be a bit too strong for a much improved player. When she was beaten in Melbourne, Anna Kalinskaya just fell away against Qinwen Zheng and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will be able to break her down in this Semi Final.

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: The defending Champion has made serene progress through the first couple of Rounds in Rio de Janeiro, but Cameron Norrie has to be expecting a much sterner test in the Quarter Final.

For starters this will be the first time this week that he will be facing a home player and the crowds in South America can really play a big part in the outcome of matches.

His opponent, Thiago Seyboth Wild, has been doing just enough to make his way through his opening two matches and that will have built up some confidence. While he will need to be a lot better than he was in the First Round, Seyboth Wild was stronger in the Second Round win and has shown plenty of promise on the clay courts over the last twelve months, even if the start to 2024 has been underwhelming.

Serving well will be very important for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just make sure he is keeping his side of the scoreboard ticking over. That is certainly going to at least put some pressure on Cameron Norrie, who has loved the conditions at this event and who has been dominant behind serve so far this week.

Anything below par will give Cameron Norrie the opportunity to attack Thiago Seyboth Wild and the World Number 23 has just shown a bit more sign of returning to his top level.

Beating a home player who has built up some momentum is never easy, but Cameron Norrie did beat Brazilian Thiago Monteiro on his way to winning the title in Rio de Janeiro last year and he can get the better of this home hope.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 17-12, + 5.84 Units (58 Units Staked, + 10.07% Yield)