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Saturday, 24 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 24th February)

We are down to the last couple of days of the latest week on the ATP/WTA Tour, although three of the four events that have been focused on are actually coming to a close on Saturday rather than Sunday.

The Finals in Dubai, Doha and Los Cabos are all scheduled for Saturday- the former two events are played in the Middle East where Finals tend to be concluded on the Saturday, while Los Cabos have organised a way for their players reaching the business end of the tournament to have a bit of recovery time if they are going to be playing at any of the big ATP 500 events that are set for next week before attention turns to Indian Wells and Miami.

Any selections from the two tournaments in Central and South America will be added when the Quarter Finals and Semi Finals are concluded, while there won't be a selection from the ATP Doha Final.

The lean is with Karen Khachanov there, but Jakub Mensik has overcome the odds and the numbers and is playing with a real belief that could be tough to shake off.

Instead the sole Pick so far is from the surprising WTA Final in Dubai as the focus begins to shift towards a new week once this one hopefully comes to a positive conclusion.


Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: Wins over three top 10 Ranked opponents has pushed Anna Kalinskaya into the biggest match of her career and a real opportunity to back up her run at the Australian Open.

A new career high World Ranking awaits when those are published on Monday morning, but a place inside the top 20 will be secured if Anna Kalinskaya can win the WTA 1000 event in Dubai.

Her opponent is also something of a surprise considering this is one of the top events outside of the Grand Slam events that players on the WTA Tour will play. Jasmine Paolini has perhaps not had as tough a run as Anna Kalinskaya, who has beaten the World Number 9, Number 3 and Number 1 in consecutive Rounds, but the Italian has made her way through the draw against three players who are Ranked higher than herself.

Benefiting from Elena Rybakina's withdrawal ahead of the Quarter Final match will have helped, but it has been a solid year so far for Jasmine Paolini who has cracked the top 20 of the World Rankings.

There is no doubting the level being produced by Jasmine Paolini, but she is going to be facing an opponent who is getting plenty of joy out of her first serve and who has been playing elite tennis from the baseline. Any player that can rally with Iga Swiatek and begin to overpower the World Number 1 has to be given plenty of respect.

Anna Kalinskaya also has a slight mental edge having crushed Jasmine Paolini at the Australian Open last month.

She served with real intensity in that Fourth Round match and the conditions in Dubai are clearly favouring the big hitting produced by the Russian who had to come through the Qualifiers to even make the main draw.

That does mean she has played a lot of tennis this week, but Anna Kalinskaya will have a couple of weeks off after this match and she can put her all into it.

Jasmine Paolini will not roll over and has shown some quality form to reach the Final herself, but she is not quite playing as well as Anna Kalinskaya who has been producing her results against some of the very best players on the Tour. Emotionally this is a step down with the expectation on Kalinskaya's shoulders after being the underdog in the last couple of Rounds, but she has shown she can handle those in the earlier Rounds and can be backed to win the biggest title of her career.

MY PICKS: Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 18-13, + 5.50 Units (62 Units Staked, + 8.87% Yield)

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