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Friday, 9 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 9th February)

The tennis week has been a mixed one, but there is still an opportunity to finish off with a strong run.

That has to be the aim when the Quarter Finals are played on Friday at the six tournaments being played on both the ATP and WTA Tour.

While it has been a winning week so far, it has not quite been as strong as I would have liked and so there is work to do over this weekend.


Ons Jabeur - 2.5 games v Beatriz Haddad Maia: Winning big matches against Ons Jabeur is never going to be easy for players on the Tour, but the confidence will be behind Beatriz Haddad Maia who did just that at the French Open last year.

The Quarter Final win was the first time the Brazilian had beaten Ons Jabeur and she has played a lot more tennis than the latter this season.

It should mean Beatriz Haddad Maia is in confident mood, even if her Second Round match took almost four hours to be completed. She ultimately rolled through the final set, but there was plenty of emotional and physical energy invested into the win over Magda Linette and Haddad Maia will be hoping she has recovered.

Beatriz Haddad Maia has shown she can find the energy needed even after putting in such a strong effort, but Ons Jabeur was an impressive Second Round winner and looked to be in decent form.

Motivation should be easy to find during this swing through the Middle East and Ons Jabeur will feel she should have beaten Haddad Maia in that Quarter Final loss at the French Open. Winning a Grand Slam is the biggest ambition for Jabeur this season, but she should have enough focus to wear down an opponent that has to have some fatigue issues.

Serving well and getting plenty of first serves in play will be key for the World Number 6 and doing that should help her cover this spread.


Tommy Paul - 2.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: There has been a tournament being played on the hard courts in Dallas and in general the early Rounds have offered unappealing angles.

The Quarter Finals should change that and Tommy Paul has the qualities to get the better of Dominik Koepfer, who has benefited from fine margins landing his way.

No one should dismiss the chances of the German who has won a Challenger title on the hard courts last month and, ultimately, has won two matches to progress through the Dallas Open into this Quarter Final match.

However, Koepfer has lost his last five matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and his numbers over the last twelve months when coming up against some of the best players on the Tour have been disappointing. The lefty serve can be a strength, but Dominik Koepfer has overachieved this week and a player like Tommy Paul should be capable of breaking down that part of his game.

It should mean pressure on the Koepfer return, but he has broken in just 12% of return games played on the hard courts when facing up to top 50 Ranked opponents.


Ben Shelton - 2.5 games v Jordan Thompson: At his best, Jordan Thompson has a serve that can be very dangerous and that allows the Australian to allow scoreboard pressure to build up on his opponents.

He pushed Stefanos Tsitsipas to four sets at the Australian Open, while Jordan Thompson made some headlines by beating Rafael Nadal on his way to the Semi Final in Brisbane.

You have to respect that and his two wins at the Dallas Open will only have increased the confidence, even if those have come against the World Number 829 and 174.

There is a big step up to facing Ben Shelton, who has had a relatively disappointing opening six weeks of the 2024 season.

That is largely compared to the kind of start Shelton would have expected from himself, but he was a clear winner in the Second Round and being back on home soil will certainly inspire the American. Ben Shelton has a massive serve, but he has also found a bit more out of his return game early in the season and that will be encouraging for him.

In two previous matches against Jordan Thompson, Ben Shelton has had a clear edge with holds in 89% of his service games played compared with the Australian's 76% mark. Ben Shelton did have to fight back from dropping the first set when these two met in Tokyo at the end of October, but he was clearly the stronger player on the day and created 11 Break Points compared with just 2 for Jordan Thompson and the home fans can drive Shelton forward for a strong win.


Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 games v Marcos Giron: There was a push into the top 10 of the World Rankings for the first time in June 2023, but it has been a difficult twelve months for Frances Tiafoe.

He looked to have finally figured out how to manage the consistency needed on the Tour, but some of those efforts look to have been forgotten and the World Number 14 has just slipped.

The numbers had improved, but those have not hit the levels of twelve months ago and it has been a disappointing start to 2024.

A win over Alex Michelsen looks solid, but backing that up is the key for Tiafoe when taking on compatriot Marcos Giron.

He was another who made a slow start to 2024, but two strong wins in Dallas will make Marcos Giron feel much better about his tennis. This is another step up in terms of level of opponent, but Giron has to believe he can at least try and exert some pressure with his serve.

Marcos Giron has just gotten a bit more out of his return game too compared with Frances Tiafoe and that may be key, although the latter has the mental edge having won the last three pro meetings between these two Americans.

The win at the US Open in 2022 was a competitive one for Frances Tiafoe, but he did crush Marcos Giron at Indian Wells last year. That will help a player who is perhaps not feeling at his very best and Tiafoe can find a way to win and cover on his way to a Semi Final appearance.

MY PICKS: Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.10 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

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