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Thursday, 29 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 29th February)

A busy day in Dubai saw Andy Murray exit relatively early at another tournament and once again questions were asked about his future and how long he will continue to play competitive tennis on the Tour.

Whether it was frustration or whether it was genuine, Murray has once again hinted that retirement will happen sooner rather than later with an indication he wants to play the French Open, Wimbledon and then the Olympic Games in Paris before calling time on what has been a wonderful career.

While it is fair enough to wonder why Andy Murray keeps competing, I do think it is unfair that he is asked this after every loss on the Tour.

He has given enough to the sport to deserve the chance to go out how he wants and when he wants, although it is clear that Andy Murray is not prepared to be uncompetitive on the Tour. There was a genuine belief he could get back amongst the top players on the Tour when he pushed himself through a tough recovery period and returned to action with a metal hip.

It looks increasingly unlikely that Andy Murray will get to that level again and it becomes hard work to suffer defeats to players that he will expect to beat. The defeat to Ugo Humbert is not so bad on paper, but others this year have been much more difficult to accept and it is perhaps no surprise that Andy Murray all but stated that his career will be ending over the next several months.


Once again this thread will begin with any selections from the ATP Dubai event before adding those from the other four events.

The ATP Acapulco event is on the same path as the Dubai event with both looking to conclude on Saturday, which gives players a few days to get over to Indian Wells and prepare for the first ATP Masters event of the season.

The other three events are looking like they are on track for a Sunday Final and that is perhaps no surprise considering the two WTA events are being played in the United States.

It has been a solid start to the week, but the four selections on Wednesday in Acapulco will determine where the week stands in terms of the numbers.

Those numbers will be added to the thread on Thursday once all of the matches have been completed.


Alexander Bublik v Jiri Lehecka: Both of these players have played well on the hard courts this year and are enjoying good runs in Dubai, but there has been a little more convincing tennis produced by Alexander Bublik.

His two wins have been a little more comfortable than Jiri Lehecka's two wins and the Kazakhstan Number 1 has spent less time on the court.

A huge effort would have been put in by Jiri Lehecka to win on Wednesday when he was down Match Points in the second set and behind by a break of serve in the decider. Fighting back would have meant a real investment both physically and emotionally and it could leave Lehecka a little short in this one.

Trusting Alexander Bublik twice in a row might not be for everyone and he is a player that can be erratic- the serve has been decent this week, but there is room for improvement and Bublik will also have to be a little more efficient when the break points are earned.

However, he has looked slightly better than Jiri Lehecka in the first two matches in Dubai and it feels like Alexander Bublik should have been the favourite in this Quarter Final.

Jiri Lehecka has shown some solid form in 2024, but it may be tough if he is forced to dig into a third set again and Alexander Bublik can come through.


Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Sebastian Korda: Losing just three games in four sets will have given Sebastian Korda a real confidence to take into this Quarter Final in Dubai.

However, both of those wins have been against players Ranked at 63 or higher and now Sebastian Korda has to take a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.

Sebastian Korda suffered relatively early defeats in Marseille and Rotterdam so this run in Dubai has really come out of left field, but there is some pressure to produce his best against the stronger players on the Tour. As mentioned, both wins have been against players outside the top 60 in the World Rankings and it should be noted that Korda has lost four matches in a row on the hard courts against those Ranked inside the top 50.

One of those defeats came against Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, which makes it three straight losses to the current World Number 5.

Much like his opponent, Andrey Rublev has been playing very well here in Dubai and that has maintained a strong start to 2024. He generally beats those he is expected to beat and Rublev has won all three previous matches against Sebastian Korda without dropping a set.

Andrey Rublev has yet to drop his serve in Dubai and he has held in 94% of his service games against Sebastian Korda. The match in Melbourne saw them play a tight second set against one another, but Rublev was the stronger player and the expectation is that he can keep up his dominant run against the American.

After the two wins produced this week, Sebastian Korda will feel he can get a lot closer to Andrey Rublev, but this is a step up in class of opponent and the World Number 5 can find his best tennis at the big moments to move through to the Semi Final.


Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: The Australian Open run took plenty out of Daniil Medvedev and he has spent a little more time recovering from his exploits in Melbourne than he has in previous years.

The World Number 4 has made it clear that his loss in the Final from two sets ahead will have hurt, but perhaps not has much as the defeat to Rafael Nadal in the exact same situation a couple of years ago.

His return to Dubai has at least seen Daniil Medvedev put a couple of wins on the board, although there is plenty of room for improvement too. That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev has played poorly, but he has set some high standards for himself as he prepares to reach the Semi Final.

Facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will be a challenge, but it is one that Medvedev will feel he can enjoy.

All three professional matches between the players have been won by Daniil Medvedev and both hard court wins have been in relatively comfortable fashion when all is said and done. The Russian has had a serious edge on the return of serve when facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and these faster conditions should suit him a little more.

As well as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can play on the hard courts, over the last twelve months he has a relatively weak 8-12 record against top 50 Ranked players on this surface. His serve has been attackable and the Spaniard has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as he would like, which is going to give Daniil Medvedev an edge in this one.

This is a big enough spread to deserve respect for the line, but Medvedev can find a way to earn the breaks of serve to earn what will feel like a good, strong win after some considerable investment of energy from the higher Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 6-7, - 3.50 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.46% Yield)

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