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Saturday 17 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 17th February)

With just the Semi Finals to go at the ATP events being played and the WTA Doha Final to be played, there are much fewer options when it comes to the Tennis Picks on Saturday.

The WTA Dubai main draw will begin on Sunday, so that is expected to be a busier day than usual alongside the conclusion of events in Delray Beach, Buenos Aires and Rotterdam.


Before that you can read my Tennis Picks from the matches to be played on Saturday.

There was a temptation to back Elena Rybakina to beat Iga Swiatek, but it is not ideal for the former Wimbledon Champion to have had to play her Semi Final while the World Number 1 received a Bye through to the Final.

Iga Swiatek has also enjoyed playing in the Middle East, especially here in Doha, and this is one of those matches to sit back and appreciate with two of the top WTA players going at it.

Rotterdam has two Semi Final matches that also look tough to call with a slight lean on Grigor Dimitrov getting the better of Alex De Minaur for a second season in succession at the tournament.

Jannik Sinner should beat the home favourite, but Tallon Griekspoor has loved the conditions for his serve and it could be a more competitive Semi Final than some will expect.


That means the focus will be on Buenos Aires and Delray Beach where four Semi Final matches are set to be played.

Selections will be added to this thread when markets have been put together with Quarter Final matches played late into the evening in London.

The totals for the week have been updated, and any Tennis Picks will be added here on Saturday.


Tommy Paul - 2.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: This is the kind of situation that should motivate Frances Tiafoe- he has dropped below Tommy Paul in the World Rankings, but will be looking to remind the American public that he is still amongst the best players in the world.

It has been a difficult six months for Frances Tiafoe and his 2024 season has not started nearly as he would have expected.

Last week he suffered a one-sided defeat to Marcos Giron and his performances remain a little sketchy.

Now he has to face the Dallas Champion and a player who is competing with real confidence in Tommy Paul. The World Number 14 has an edge in terms of the numbers being produced and a comfortable Quarter Final win should mean that the Second Round battle with Alex Michelsen is not going to be affecting him so much.

Tommy Paul has also won the last two matches against Frances Tiafoe and he can level up their series on the pro Tour. He is serving well enough to do that, but it is Paul's return game where he looks to have a real edge in this contest and that could see him get the better of an opponent who is still perhaps a little vulnerable mentally after some poor losses in recent months.

It is a big spread that Frances Tiafoe could use to keep this close, but the play is backing Tommy Paul to do just enough on both sides of the court to show why he has moved past Tiafoe in the World Rankings.


Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Nicolas Jarry: He has not been at his most convincing best, but Carlos Alcaraz is two wins away from defending the title he won in Buenos Aires in 2023.

He can then move onto the ATP 500 event in Rio next week looking to go one better than last year as Carlos Alcaraz looks to keep his Rankings points high in his bid to return to World Number 1.

There have been moments in this tournament where Alcaraz has just struggled to impose his tennis on the opponent as he would like and this is a tough looking Semi Final against Nicolas Jarry.

They met in Rio last year and Carlos Alcaraz had to fight through two tough sets before pulling away in the decider, while Nicolas Jarry gave him plenty to think about at Wimbledon, a Grand Slam tournament that Alcaraz eventually went on to win.

Nicolas Jarry has a big serve and it is effective on the clay courts, but he was perhaps fortunate to benefit from a Tomas Martin Etcheverry retirement in the Quarter Final. That match looked to be swinging in the direction of the home player before a leg injury ended the contest at the end of the second set and Jarry will know he needs to be a lot better in this one.

Serving well will give him a chance, and getting as many first serves in play as possible will certainly be very important to the outcome of the match.

However, the Jarry second serve has been attacked this week and Carlos Alcaraz is likely going to have success doing the same.

The World Number 2 has been serving well enough to keep Nicolas Jarry under pressure too and he may have enough to cover what is a big spread for a best of three set match.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-8, - 2.40 Units (32 Units Staked, - 7.50% Yield)

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