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Wednesday, 28 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 28th February)

The first day of the week produced a solid return, but we will know more about how the tournaments are progressing for the Tennis Picks when the First Round is completed in Acapulco.

On Wednesday the entire Second Round in Dubai will be played as the organisers push for a Saturday finish and the players will probably appreciate that as they will have plenty of time to get over to Indian Wells and become accustomed to the conditions there.

All of the other four events being played may decide to split the Second Round matches as has become the norm for most events around the year, and any selections from those tournaments will be added to this thread.


Alexander Bublik v Tallon Griekspoor: Two players who have reached World Number 21 as career high Ranking marks over the last few months are hoping to push into the top 20 for the first time behind a strong run in Dubai.

There are some considerable Ranking points to be earned here, but that will also put some pressure on both Alexander Bublik and Tallon Griekspoor when they meet in the Second Round.

Layers are struggling to separate the players, and Alexander Bublik can be a little erratic which makes it tough to back him with a lot of confidence.

However, Bublik has won a title in Montpellier at the beginning of the month and his form has been decent enough as he bids to earn a Quarter Final spot.

He will need to serve well against someone like Tallon Griekspoor, especially in what have been fast conditions in Dubai so far this week. There is little doubt that the serve is one of the bigger weapons Griekspoor has at his disposal, but he has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts in 2024 and Alexander Bublik has to avoid being too generous and handing over a break of serve.

These two have not met on the Tour for a couple of years and both were similarly Ranked when they last played one another in Astana in 2022.

It was Alexander Bublik who won on that day and he has won all three professional matches against Tallon Griekspoor. All of those matches have been on the hard courts and Bublik has had a considerable edge on the return of serve and the feeling is that will show up in this Second Round match too.

Big serves are likely going to see players run through some service games, but Alexander Bublik may be confident enough to edge past a dangerous opponent into the last eight in Dubai.


Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: 2023 might not have ended as he would have hoped, but Karen Khachanov has enjoyed the last month on the Tour after a decent enough showing at the Australian Open.

A Semi Final run in Marseille has been followed by picking up the title in Doha and Karen Khachanov was a solid winner in the First Round having made the short hope across to Dubai for this ATP 500 event.

The three match losing run Jiri Lehecka had absorbed was ended in his solid First Round win over Marton Fucsovics, but this feels like another step up in class.

There is plenty to like about the way the Czech youngster approaches his tennis and a big game could be tough to deal with on these fasters courts. There is some room for improvement on the return of serve, but Jiri Lehecka will be hoping he can build scoreboard pressure to crack Karen Khachanov.

Big serving has certainly helped the World Number 15 produce the solid results he has done over the last month, and Karen Khachanov will be boosted by holding two wins over Jiri Lehecka last year on this surface.

Karen Khachanov only faced a single Break Point in two matches against Lehecka, while he has found a way to neutralise the serve and get into the rallies. That may be a bit more difficult on these courts, but Karen Khachanov can still hold enough of an edge to win this match and cover the handicap mark set.


The remaining Tennis Picks will all come from the ATP Acapulco event where the organisers are also looking to schedule a Saturday Final.

He is not entirely easy to trust, but Frances Tiafoe may be able to do just enough to get the better of Dominik Koepfer, a player who has struggled when it comes to facing top 50 opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas are tipped to get the better of Italian opponents who have not had the best time on the hard courts. Both Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli have played well to get to the Second Round in Acapulco, the latter as a Qualifier, but this is a considerable step up for both and a proving ground for them.

Backing up big First Round wins might just be beyond them against solid hard court players.

And the expectation is that Casper Ruud can keep his fine hard court performances going against an opponent who spent some time playing on the South American Golden Swing before heading to Acapulco.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)

Week Update: 5-2, + 4.80 Units (14 Units Staked, + 34.29% Yield)

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