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Wednesday, 6 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 5th March)

The WTA Tour have had a couple of 1000 events played, but this is the first of those on the ATP Tour when both come together at Indian Wells.

Both Tours will move together onto Miami at the end of this event with March dominated by the two big Masters tournaments ahead of the start of the clay court season.

The top Seeds will not get underway until the Second Round later in the week, but the opening days are very busy with a host of First Round matches to be completed.


It has been a poor start to the season for the Tennis Picks but much of that is still down to the really poor Australian Open production.

Last week was looking better, but when both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas failed to serve out matches, and ultimately covers, and Andrey Rublev was denied a complete win over Sebastian Korda due to a retirement, it did prevent a second winning week to be recorded.

Things could always be a lot worse, but they should have been a lot better from that week and should have backed up the previous week which had ended with a profitable week.

Let's hope the Indian Wells Masters event proves to be one with a little more fortune attached to the selections that will be made over the next ten days.


Andy Murray - 2.5 games v David Goffin: There was a time that a match between these two players would have been played in the Quarter Final of big Masters events, but both Andy Murray and David Goffin are still plugging away on the Tour.

One has spoken about potentially retiring at the end of the summer, while the other has had to battle through a couple of Qualifiers to even earn a spot in the main draw at the Indian Wells Masters.

This does cloud some of the potential outcome of the match- Andy Murray has been struggling to find wins, even if performances have not been as poor as the results, while David Goffin has begun to spend a lot of time playing matches against players outside of the top 100.

To underline the point, over the last twelve months through injury and a loss of form, David Goffin has played just eight matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. The Belgian former World Number 7 has lost seven of those eight matches, although three of those losses in 2024 have been against players Ranked high enough to be Seeded in Grand Slam events.

After winning two Qualifiers, David Goffin has to be feeling pretty happy with the conditions and he will certainly feel he can finally win a set, never mind the match, against Andy Murray.

The head to head is perhaps not surprising- Andy Murray's style looks to be everything David Goffin can do, but only a little bit better as his former Grand Slam winning and World Number 1 form would underline.

There is little doubt that Andy Murray is not the player he once was and everything is much harder for him these days than when at his peak. The serve has never been the biggest weapon, but Murray has not returned as well as he would have expected from himself, although this is a match in which he can get his teeth into those games a little more.

David Goffin has only held 67% of his service games played in four matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024, and that number is only at 71% against those opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This gives Andy Murray a chance and there could be a number of breaks of serve during this contest, although the feeling is that this is a match that the British player can still win.


Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v Juncheng Shang: This is more to do with the form that Jordan Thompson has displayed over the last month and that gives him the edge over Juncheng Shang, despite the fact the latter has come through a couple of Qualifiers in Indian Wells to become accustomed to the conditions.

Last year Jordan Thompson did reach the Third Round at Indian Wells and he has been playing with a lot of confidence through the first two months of the season.

Winning a title in Los Cabos, which includes victories over the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud, has to give the Australian plenty of belief, and he was a deserved winner when last going up against Juncheng Shang to level their personal head to head.

You have to credit the lefty for reaching the Hong Kong Semi Final and taking a set from Andrey Rublev, but he will have to serve well to contain Jordan Thompson.

The latter is not easy to trust to maintain the current levels having reached his career high World Ranking at the end of February, but Jordan Thompson is playing well enough to move through to the Second Round behind a solid victory.


Petra Martic - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It is never going to be easy to return from a long absence from the Tour and especially for those who are returning as mothers.

That has already proven to be the case for Angelique Kerber and it may take a bit of time to really find her timing and ability to string together wins.

It looks like a tough First Round match against veteran Petra Martic, who has been in decent if unspectacular form to open 2024. However, she has been competing and putting some wins together and that is more than what can be said for Angelique Kerber who is now Ranked outside the top 600.

Things are perhaps tougher for someone like Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki than they perhaps will be for Naomi Osaka because of the style of tennis- both the former players are largely seen as counter punchers, but finding that timing and the stamina to fight through the long rallies time after time will take a bit of getting used to again.

There have been a couple of competitive matches for Kerber on her return this year, but a lot of matches have got away from her too.

Petra Martic has lost matches to Alja Tomljanovic and Naomi Osaka, two returning players, already in 2024 and that makes it tougher to trust her. However, Angelique Kerber has been having some issues with her serve, which has added to the pressure on the return and ultimately that may show up in this First Round match.


Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 games v Robin Montgomery: Both of these players have com through the Qualifiers, but it is Hailey Baptiste who can progress through to the Second Round.

She has gotten the better of Robin Montgomery in both previous matches, including in a three setter this year, and looks to be playing well against those players she should beat.

Robin Montgomery will be competitive, but has to get more out of the return against the first serve to turn things around, especially as Hailey Baptiste has been able to attack both the first and second serve returns.

Two Qualifiers should be confident within the conditions at Indian Wells, but it is Hailey Baptiste getting closer to cracking the top 100 and she can move a step towards that with a victory in what may end up being a competitive three set match.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

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