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Thursday, 7 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 6th March)

Tennis Paradise.

The marketing promotes this side of Indian Wells and the fans and players do love playing in this part of California, but the opening day of the main draw of this Masters 1000 event was cold, windy and ultimately too rainy to complete.

It does mean a loaded Thursday at the tournament as the remainder of the First Round is all scheduled to be completed in both the ATP and WTA events taking place and all in preparation for the Seeded players to join the party on Friday.

The weather forecast for the rest of the tournament is looking much more like what we have come to expect from Indian Wells and it will be interesting to hear how players like the new conditions- the tournament had been operating one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but early indications is that the courts are much quicker in 2024 and the desert air will contribute to the balls flying through the court.

It is something we will have to keep in mind compared with previous Indian Wells tournaments.


The conditions were one negative of the opening day of the main draw, but the bigger story is clearly the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal who continues to feel he is unable to operate at the level needed to be back on the Tour.

An exhibition was played against Carlos Alcaraz, but poor movement in practice had suggested Nadal was dealing with a problem and it looks like any return to the Tour will now have to wait until the clay court season, which begins next month.

This is yet another hint towards retirement and it would not be a surprise if the Spaniard calls time on his career after the Olympic Games, also played at his favourite Grand Slam surroundings in Roland Garros. The only hope for fans is that we are going to get to see Rafael Nadal enjoying his tennis and being able to head off on his own terms, but there has to be a concern as to how he will be able to hold up through the tough clay court season in the build to the French Open.


Only half of the Tennis Picks were completed on Thursday as the rain hit the event and postponed a number of matches until Thursday.

A number of other selections from the First Round matches that were originally scheduled for Thursday can be read below as the tournament prepares to welcome some of the top names on the Tour to the action in the Second Round.


Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Conditions may favour the latter at Indian Wells if the courts are playing very quickly, but Lorenzo Sonego has been struggling for any kind of consistent form in 2024.

He has had his moments, and the serve makes him dangerous, but Sonego has not been returning very well and that may give Miomir Kecmanovic the edge in this First Round match.

The Serb has not exactly been piling up the wins, but the run to the Quarter Final in Acapulco will have him feeling better about his overall tennis.

Lorenzo Sonego may bemoan some of the early draws given to him in 2024, but his ending to 2023 on the hard courts was also pretty ineffective and Kecmanovic can move in front in their head to head on the Tour.


Tomas Machac - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: The money has come in on the younger player who has produced some very good hard court performances this season and Tomas Machac has to be happy in hearing about the faster court conditions.

Take nothing away from the achievements Stan Wawrinka has had in his career, but he has only played one hard court match this season and has now dropped as low as World Number 70 having peaked at World Number 3.

The lack of hard court tennis has to be a concern, while the move from the clay courts to the faster Indian Wells court may be more difficult than it has been previously.

Stan Wawrinka still has quality and can produce eye-catching tennis, but doing so over a couple of hours may be difficult against this opponent.

Tomas Machac has had solid hard court wins over the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Andy Murray this season, and he will feel he should have gotten the better of Karen Khachanov in Melbourne and Alexander Bublik in Dubai.

He did get the better of Stan Wawrinka on an indoor hard court at the back end of the 2023 season and Machac can do the same at Indian Wells.


Arthur Fils - 1.5 games v Nuno Borges: He may have disappointed me on the clay courts, but Arthur Fils can be backed to win this First Round match.

Take nothing away from Nuno Borges who has backed up the run at the Australian Open with some big performances, but the numbers are average and it feels like he has just played the big points at an unsustainable level.

He will be out for revenge having won just two games in a big loss to Arthur Fils earlier this season, but things have gone much better for the Portuguese player since then.

There is a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Fils, and he has yet to show the consistency that people would have hoped, but this is a solid hard court player. As long as he serves well, Arthur Fils can get the better of Nuno Borges for a second time in 2024 and pick up some big Ranking points before the clay court season gets underway.


Patrick Kypson - 1.5 games v Ethan Quinn: Any player that wins two Qualifiers to earn a spot in the main draw of any tournament has to be given a lot of respect. It means they are familiar with the conditions and there will be some confidence having won two matches in a row, while Ethan Quinn will also note that his two wins were against players Ranked higher than Patrick Kypson.

There may also be a little bit of motivation from the fact Patrick Kypson earned a Wild Card spot into the main draw, while these two players met in a tight, competitive Challenger tournament Final in Cleveland.

Ultimately Kypson got the better of Ethan Quinn on the day with the slightly stronger serving making a difference and the feeling is that this will be the case when they face off in the First Round.

Patrick Kypson followed that tournament win in Cleveland by reaching the Quarter Final in Delray Beach and operating at a higher level than Ethan Quinn may give the higher Ranked American the edge to move through to bigger contests in the Second Round.


Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 games v Pavel Kotov: Reaching the Final in his home tournament in Santiago will have been a positive on one hand, but Alejandro Tabilo has to be disappointed he was not able to win the title.

That match was played a few days ago and travelling to Indian Wells to move onto a new surface is going to be a big ask.

Most would also expect Alejandro Tabilo to have his best results on the clay courts, but he is up at a new career high World Ranking mark of 39 and he came through two Qualifying Rounds on his way to winning a hard court title in Auckland in January.

Pavel Kotov is struggling for consistency and he may need Tabilo to be a little fatigued to have a chance to beat the lefty.

With this match on a Thursday, Alejandro Tabilo cannot have many excuses about being too tired to compete and the feeling is that he will get the better of this opponent and continue to improve the World Ranking.


Emma Raducanu - 2.5 games v Rebeka Masarova: A couple of solid Qualifier wins will have given Rebeka Masarova confidence and it is not ideal backing a player speaking about being unworried about results.

That is what was coming from the Emma Raducanu camp ahead of this WTA 1000 event with the British player speaking about development rather than getting matches under the belt.

Ultimately those things do go hand in hand and Emma Raducanu should be winning a match like this one against a solid, but unspectacular hard court opponent.

It has been a mixed start to 2024, but only the loss at the Australian Open has to be considered a really poor one for the former US Open Champion. In general Emma Raducanu has gotten the better of those she should be beating and Rebeka Masarova is one of those players.

The wins in the Qualifiers will give Masarova confidence, but the Spaniard had lost five of six matches prior to arriving at Indian Wells and Emma Raducanu can find her way through to the Second Round.


Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anna Blinkova: The upset over Elena Rybakina a the Australian Open may end up being the absolute highlight of Anna Blinkova's 2024 season, but she will be looking for more.

Wins over Caroline Wozniacki and Dayana Yastremska in San Diego shows that confidence is not a problem, but Anna Blinkova is going to need to be at her best to beat Karolina Pliskova.

If the conditions are as expected, Pliskova's serve could be a major weapon on Thursday and potentially deep into the tournament.

An injury hit twelve months has just pushed Karolina Pliskova out of the limelight generated by Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, but the Czech player has just reminded everyone of the danger she poses. After winning a title in Cluj, Karolina Pliskova reached the Semi Final in Doha and Fourth Round in Dubai, two big hard court events, and the only defeat suffered was in three sets to Gauff.

She will certainly feel she should have won that match and Karolina Pliskova had strong runs in Indian Wells in the past having twice reached the Semi Final and twice reached the Quarter Final.

Serving well will put Anna Blinkova under pressure and Karolina Pliskova can earn solid passage into the next Round.

MY PICKS: Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arthur Fils - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Patrick Kypson - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0 % Yield)

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