One more game from Jasmine Paolini and it would been another positive day at Indian Wells, but instead it is a day when the swing has been the other way.
At least Caroline Wozniacki avoided the collapse in the first set that might have swung the match entirely in the other direction as she allowed a 5-1 lead disappear and headed for a medical timeout.
Fortunately she rallied and it was Angelique Kerber who was struggling by the end of the match after her strongest week back on the Tour.
We head towards the business end of the tournament and this looks to be the last really busy day at Indian Wells.
There are some very good looking matches heading out to the court and the Tennis Picks from the day can be read below.
Tommy Paul - 4.5 games v Luca Nardi: Not every Lucky Loser will be able to make the kind of impact Luca Nardi has had at the Indian Wells Masters and his upset against Novak Djokovic means the Italian will crack the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time.
He was a huge underdog in that Third Round match, which is no surprise, and there has been very little evidence from the hard court tennis played that Luca Nardi was going to be capable of competing with Novak Djokovic, never mind actually beating him.
Before the main draw in Indian Wells, the highest Ranked players Luca Nardi had faced this year was World Number 112 David Goffin and World Number 121 Sumit Nagal and the Italian managed to win just one set across those two matches.
Now he has beaten Novak Djokovic and Zhizhen Zhang, both in three sets, and Luca Nardi will be hoping to avoid an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance in the Fourth Round.
He is not helped by the fact he is facing Tommy Paul who has been enjoying a very strong 2024 season.
The American has won a title in Dallas and reached the Final in Delray Beach and Tommy Paul has looked very good in winning his opening two matches at Indian Wells. Those victories have been against players significantly Ranked higher than the one he will be facing in the Fourth Round and Tommy Paul has been serving and returning effectively in this tournament.
Tommy Paul's hard court numbers in 2024 have been very impressive and it will be tough for Luca Nardi to match the efforts of beating Novak Djokovic.
Serving well will help, but Paul is likely going to keep the Lucky Loser under pressure and that can give the World Number 17 an opportunity to wear him down.
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Holger Rune: A bye and a walkover helped Holger Rune through to the Third Round where he was a solid winner over Lorenzo Musetti.
The World Number 7 will be well aware that the challenge increases greatly in this Fourth Round against Taylor Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells Masters Champion and a player looking to close back in on a place in the top ten of the World Rankings.
He won the title in Delray Beach and reached the Australian Open Quarter Final, but there has long been a feeling that Taylor Fritz should be destined for even more. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for the top American and this season Fritz has been backing that up with stronger returning.
The two wins in Indian Wells had to be expected and, much like Holger Rune, this is a considerable step upwards in terms of level of opponent.
Holger Rune may not look like a player with a huge serve, but he is very good at protecting this shot and is a better server than some may think. The problem this season has been the lack of consistent production when it comes to the return of serve and tha may end up being the difference between the two players on the day.
Last year Taylor Fritz was able to get the better of the returning numbers when beating Holger Rune in Miami and the conditions here may just suit the Fritz game a little more than in Florida.
Their meeting in Miami was closer than the final score may indicate, but Taylor Fritz can frank that twelve months later and he can get the better of the return in moving into another Indian Wells Quarter Final.
Casper Ruud - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: All credit has to be given to the veteran Gael Monfils who continues to flash some of his very best tennis.
His win over Cameron Norrie has to be respected, but the Frenchman was out on the court for over three hours and this is another step upwards.
Casper Ruud is hard to trust to cover this kind of spread against a top player- he is a quality player, but the return game can be a little inconsistent on the hard courts and that will be an issue if Gael Monfils is really serving as well as he can.
However, you have to figure some fatigue is going to be at play and Casper Ruud can keep the pressure on with his own serve working effectively in the conditions. He should have an opportunity to hit through Monfils, as athletic and mobile as the latter is, and that should give Casper Ruud the advantage as he moves into another Quarter Final.
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Emma Navarro: We have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka produce her consistent best throughout one match, but the Australian Open Champion continues to plunder her way through the Indian Wells draw.
She will be tested by an ever improving Emma Navarro, although the concern for the American is that she has fallen away in some matches when things have turned against her.
Emma Navarro has a decent serve and she has solid groundstrokes, but the question is how she will deal with the obvious power edge coming from the other side of the court. Frustrating Aryna Sabalenka by hitting her marks on the serve will be key for Navarro, but you have to give the World Number 2 an edge when she is able to get into rallies on the return.
Aryna Sabalenka will attack the Navarro second serve, while her own serve is one that can offer up a lot of short balls.
As long as Sabalenka keeps the error count down, she should be able to keep some sustained pressure on Emma Navarro and that can see her wear down the home player.
Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: Heading into the Australian Open Semi Final, Coco Gauff was motoring at a very, very high level.
However, the defeat to Aryna Sabalenka has sparked a relative downturn in level and over the last month it has been much harder work for the US Open Champion.
She has found a way to win matches, but Gauff has not been able to cover some very big spreads and that makes it a little more difficult to trust her at this mark.
In saying that, Coco Gauff has found a way to put the pressure on the Elise Mertens serve and she has won all three previous matches against this opponent. The last two wins would have seen her cover this mark, even though the win at the US Open was earned in three sets, and the American can get the better of this opponent again.
Elise Mertens will be playing with confidence after beating Naomi Osaka, but that was a match that could have easily got away from her at 5-4, 30/30 in the first set. Losing that would have made it a very long road back and Coco Gauff is playing at a superior level to the returning Osaka.
Serving well will be key and there are likely to be a few breaks of serve, but Coco Gauff has managed six breaks in her last two matches against Elise Mertens. Hitting that mark again should give Gauff an opportunity to have one of her less stressful wins since the Australian Open.
MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 20-18, - 0.92 Units (76 Units Staked, - 1.21% Yield)
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