I always find it surprising as to how quick the NFL season has been played when we reach the Super Bowl and after Sunday there will be seven months before we see more competitive Football.
Things may have changed significantly by then by in our personal lives, which should be closer to a return to normal than they are now, and the NFL 2021 season could have the seventeenth regular season game on the schedule. We will learn more about that in the coming weeks, while fans in London will surely be excited to hear that the NFL are looking to return the International Series games to the schedule too.
The new NFL season will get underway in the middle of March and we should have a lot more information as to the shape the 2021 season will take, while also hearing rumours about which teams could potentially be playing those International games. Free Agency will also get underway and that will change the shape of the Draft, but for now you can read my first Mock Draft here.
Before we can think about a new one, let's put the 2020 year in the books and that means completing the one game left this season. You can read my selection below for the Super Bowl which is being played in Tampa Bay this year and with a limited crowd inside the Stadium too.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: For the first time in the Super Bowl era, one of the teams competing will be playing in their home Stadium.
Unsurprisingly it is a team led by Tom Brady who continues to break down historical records and is looking for his seventh ring, but this time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The previous six came in his time with the New England Patriots, but Brady has erased the narrative that he is a Quarter Back who was a product of the Patriots system rather than one who would have been a top player regardless.
Now in his time with the Buccaneers Tom Brady is showing that he is capable of winning games in a different system, a relationship that has had some teething problems in the early part of the 2020 season. It does feel like that Brady and Head Coach Bruce Arians are on the same page and the Offensive weapons that are surrounding the veteran Quarter Back are thriving with a player who will get them the ball.
Winning a seventh ring will make it a very strong case for Tom Brady to be considered the greatest Quarter Back of all time, if he is not already, but beating Patrick Mahomes and the defending Champions Kansas City Chiefs will only add to the legacy.
Beating Kansas City won't be easy as they look to become the first team since Brady's New England to win back to back Super Bowls after working their way through the PlayOffs. The Chiefs have not always been at their dominant best and that is underlined by their poor record against the spread in 2020, but they did beat the Buffalo Bills without too many issues and look to have peaked at just the right time.
Most will put this game down to Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes, but it can be lost in the stories that the two Quarter Backs essentially are not playing against each other. Instead two strong Defensive Co-Ordinators will be looking to slow down very strong Offensive units and give their team the best possible chance of success.
Those Defenses have actually made some massive plays for both teams already in the post-season- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive unit have made some big plays against Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers which set their team up to win those games, while the Kansas City Chiefs knuckled down hard against the Cleveland Browns as Mahomes exited the game, while giving up just 41 points in the two PlayOff wins.
One of the more under-reported issues that is facing the Kansas City Chiefs are the two injuries on the Offensive Line with both starting Tackles expected to miss out. Mitchell Schwartz has yet to be a confirmed absentee, but looks incredibly unlikely to have recovered from a back injury which has kept him out for over half a season, while Eric Fisher has been ruled out following an injury in the AFC Championship Game.
Losing both Tackles would hurt an Offensive Line against any team, but it is especially the case against this Tampa Bay pass rush which has been thriving and causing havoc throughout the post-season. The key for the Buccaneers and Defensive Co-Ordinator Todd Bowles is trying to get some pressure on Patrick Mahomes, but without having to use too many Blitzes.
They have the players to do that, but Bowles is also someone who is keen on dialling up the Blitz and I think it could be a case of living or dying by the sword in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is a Quarter Back who loves seeing the Blitz as he makes the right plays more often than not and I think the Chiefs will feel they can still have some success in this one.
It may not be as consistent with the likely pressure being felt from the edges, and it won't be easy for the Kansas City Chiefs to run the ball to slow it down either considering the success Tampa Bay's Defensive Line have been having in the post-season. Even then you have to note the holes in the Tampa Bay Secondary which can be attacked and Patrick Mahomes is about as good as any Quarter Back in the NFL, if not the top player at the position, and you would expect him to connect with some big time playmakers to move the stick in the big game.
Much is going to depend on how well Kansas City have been able to prepare their backups at the Tackle position- if they can give Mahomes enough time to scramble and find his playmakers the Chiefs should be able to have success in the Super Bowl, and Andy Reid is one of the best at preparing his team when having more time to do so.
The likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will have their big gains and Patrick Mahomes has been careful enough with the ball to be fully aware of the ball-hawking Tampa Bay Secondary whose turnovers have proven to be a major part of the reason they have been able to win at New Orleans and Green Bay. Pressure up front could lead to Mahomes having to throw the ball before he is ready which could give the Buccaneers Secondary a chance, but I like the Quarter Back and believe he will be ready to deal with what he sees.
Patrick Mahomes will have success, but I also think the Offensive Line issues will give the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a chance to get the ball back into the hands of Tom Brady and their own powerful Offense. However it should be said that the Defensive turnovers have been massively important for the Buccaneers and really set them up to win tight games against the Saints and the Packers and it might have hidden the fact that the Buccaneers have not been the most consistent calling plays and having long drives end in scores.
In the Championship Game Tom Brady had three Touchdown passes, but also threw three Interceptions and now he is facing a Steve Spagnuolo led Defensive unit. It will lead to memories of 2007 when the New York Giants upset Tom Brady and the New England Patriots thanks to the aggressive Defense sent out by Spagnuolo who will be looking to find a way to give the veteran something to see that he hasn't in his long career.
To make life easier for himself, I do think Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to make strong use out of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones at Running Back. While they have not been the best at establishing the run, the Buccaneers have done well enough to believe they can take advantage of the Kansas City Defensive Line which has been better at getting after the Quarter Back than pushing back against the run.
Putting Tom Brady in third and manageable spots opens up the playbook and Tampa Bay will feel it is always an advantage keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines for as long as possible. That will slow down some of the pass rush pressure that Kansas City have been able to generate, while it will also keep the Chiefs guessing and perhaps prevent the turnover creating Secondary from being able to step in front of some passes.
With the passing options Tampa Bay have at their disposal I do think they are going to be able to make some plays against this Kansas City Secondary. It is a talented team, but the Chiefs can sometimes bend and Tom Brady will likely be able to find a way to get the ball to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski, a talented group of Receivers who are almost impossible to shut down completely.
Steve Spagnuolo knows what works against Tom Brady though and I think he will have schemed up the Kansas City Defensive unit to maybe force a couple of mistakes from the veteran. For the main Tom Brady can avoid those, but he won't want to see the Buccaneers get too far behind the Kansas City Chiefs and that means making a faster start than when these teams met in the regular season.
For the first time in Super Bowl history we are not only having a team playing in their home Stadium, but this is also a repeat of a regular season game in the same Stadium. Back in Week 12 the Kansas City Chiefs came out firing and took a big lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before having to hold on for a 3 point win to move to 10-1 while dropping their hosts to 7-5.
The Buccaneers have not lost a game since then, but they have to be a little wary about taking on a Chiefs team that Intercepted Brady twice that day and had an almost 150 yard advantage when it came to the Offensive numbers produced. Turnovers won the day for the Chiefs too with a 2-1 advantage, although Tampa Bay did manage to take down Patrick Mahomes more times than Kansas City got to Tom Brady and this time the two Tackles will be missing.
I do think this is likely to be another competitive game even though the first meeting needed a big fightback from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to do that. I expect they would have learned something from that game and the Buccaneers were dropped to 7-5 on the day and look a much stronger all around team now.
It is the Offensive Line concerns that really make me believe the Buccaneers keep this close- they were lucky to cover for me in Week 12, but I think getting more than a Field Goal worth of points could be crucial in a game that could easily go down to the wire.
No one would be surprised if Patrick Mahomes pulled the win out of the fire, but Tom Brady won't go down without a fight either and I do think Tampa Bay have a real advantage being at home, especially in the current climate.
As good as the Chiefs clearly are, they are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as the favourite. The Buccaneers won't mind being the underdog having won outright in the last two PlayOff spots despite being the dog, and they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.
Ironically Tampa Bay have had to win three road games to play at home on Super Bowl night- four previous teams have done that and the last three have all won the Super Bowl so I am going to roll with the points in the big game on Sunday. As I said I think the game will be tight and would not be surprised if it is decided by a Field Goal either way, so taking the hook with the underdog hosts looks good here.
The favourite has won the last two Super Bowls including Kansas City last season and it is hard to oppose Patrick Mahomes or Andy Reid off a Bye, but the Offensive Line issues may restrict the scoring for the Chiefs and that will give Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to earn a backdoor cover at the worst, much like we saw in Week 12.
Since 2006 the team with the better record is only 1-11 against the spread in the Super Bowl, while those teams are just 2-10 straight up. I have to say that is a remarkable statistic and, while trends are there to be snapped, it does make it more comfortable going with the 'home' team who are the underdog this week.
At exactly three points it is a much harder spread to manage, so pay a bit of juice for the hook on Super Bowl Sunday.
MY PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.76 Bet365 (2 Units)
Championship Round: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)
Divisional Round: 3-1, + 3.36 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)
Wild Card Round: 1-5, - 8.18 Units (12 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)
Week 17: 4-5, - 3.10 Units (18 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
Week 16: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)
Week 15: 3-4-1, - 2.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 14.88% Yield)
Week 14: 5-3, + 3 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.75% Yield)
Week 13: 5-5, - 0.82 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.10% Yield)
Week 12: 5-4, + 0.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 11: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3-1, + 1.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.13% Yield)
Week 9: 2-6, - 8.36 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 6.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.25% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3-1, + 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.87% Yield)
Week 6: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)
Week 3: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.27% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 7.10 Units (20 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)
Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)
Season 2020: 79-64-4, + 13.12 Units (296 Units Staked, + 4.43% Yield)
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