It is an extremely busy day at the Australian Open, but the last one of the Grand Slam tournament as the Singles draws are whittled down on the final stretch to finding the first two Champions of the 2021 season.
I should have a fuller thread for the Day 9 Picks as we will have the full Quarter Final line up in place by then and can have a look back through the Outright Selections and also the feeling of how the tournament will develop. A difficult Day 7 has just dropped some of the moment, but I am looking for better on Day 8 with the remaining Fourth Round matches to be played.
Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: It is hard to really understand what was going through Daniil Medvedev's mind in the Third Round as he suddenly lost what had seemingly been complete control of his match against Filip Krajinovic. Whatever the issue was, Medvedev's Coach had enough of some of the antics and it turned out the decision to walk out on the match was the best one as it refocused the Russian to win the final set decider without dropping a game.
At the end of the match there was no real concern about the actions of the Coach or the player, but Daniil Medvedev will largely just be glad to still have an opportunity in winning a maiden Grand Slam. However the bottom half of the draw looks fraught with danger now and the second favourite for the title is going to have to work hard to reach his second Grand Slam Final.
This is probably one of the better matches Daniil Medvedev could have asked for in the Fourth Round as he looks to make easier progress than he had in the Third Round. That isn't being disrespectful to Mackenzie McDonald who has done very well to reach the Fourth Round for the second time at Grand Slam level, although it is only the second time he has been beyond the Second Round in a major.
He did that at the 2018 Championships at Wimbledon and was beaten in four sets by Milos Raonic, but this is a different kind of test of the American. Mackenzie McDonald has beaten Borna Coric in the tournament, but his other two wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 80 in the World Rankings and McDonald showed little in the first two tournaments played in 2021 to believe this kind of run was going to be within him.
Like many players, Mackenzie McDonald has made good use of the quicker conditions with strong holding numbers, while he has impressed in terms of the return too. Both aspects of his game are likely to be severely tested by Daniil Medvedev though who has shown a consistency on the hard courts over the last eighteen to twenty-four months which could take him to a level that the World Number 192 is unable to reach.
These two did play out a competitive match at Indian Wells a couple of years ago, but Medvedev was able to take control after a tight first set in a straight sets win. The Daniil Medvedev serve was key to the outcome of that match and I think that is likely to be the case in Melbourne in this Fourth Round match too.
Mackenzie McDonald is talented and better than his World Ranking may suggest and he has challenged top 10 players he has faced on the hard courts, although more often than not he has ended on the losing side. I think he will give Daniil Medvedev things to think about in this Fourth Round match too, but the the higher Ranked player should be able to put a run of games together at some point that takes the match away from the American.
The Daniil Medvedev return is thriving in the conditions and he has broken in 40% of return games played in the tournament. He has already broken nineteen times in the tournament and I think he will be able to add enough to that tally to get into a position to cover this handicap in a match that may be more competitive than the final scoreline will suggest.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Fabio Fognini: These two players have been on the Tour for a long time and have come across each other plenty of times and not always seen eye to eye on things. Then again not many have played Fabio Fognini as many times as Rafael Nadal and not had some kind of falling out with the extremely talented Italian who has a tendency to talk his way into trouble.
We saw some of that in the Second Round in his win over compatriot Salvatore Caruso when the two players got into an argument at the end of the match, but Fognini also has plenty of talent which makes him very dangerous when at his best.
In somewhat of a surprise, this is only the third time these two will be meeting in a Grand Slam and both hold a win over the other. You should see plenty of action from Fabio Fognini's Grand Slam win over Rafael Nadal considering he came from 2-0 down in sets to beat him on the hard courts at the US Open in September 2015, but that is also the sole win in seven previous hard court matches between this pair.
It was a very close match at the US Open and Rafael Nadal will feel he blew it, but it has also focused him in matches against this rival. and he has won seven of eight matches against Fognini since then. On the hard courts they have met four times since September 2015 and Rafael Nadal has won all four with 90% of service games being held and breaking in just under 40% of return games played.
I am not sure how much the Nadal back issues are bothering him, but his numbers have been strong in this tournament and he has been competing at a higher level than Fabio Fognini. The latter had an impressive win over Alex De Minaur in the last Round which will give him some real confidence, but Rafael Nadal is producing the superior returning and you have to have more faith in his serve than the Fabio Fognini one on this surface.
This should be a good watch with the talent on the court and I expect to see some top shot-making on display. However the edge has to be with Rafael Nadal who has largely dominated Fabio Fognini when meeting him on a hard court and who has been playing the better tennis of the two in this tournament so far.
We may need four sets to separate them on the day, but Rafael Nadal has won four of the last six sets between them on the hard courts by either a 6-1 or 6-2 score and I think he will be able to find the breaks to cover the mark here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: If the two players are fully healthy it could be the match of the day when Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Matteo Berrettini, but there are some questions about the status of the Italian who struggled to get over the line in the Third Round. An obvious injury was hindering Berrettini who might have had difficulties winning the match if he had been forced to play a fourth and potentially a fifth set, and now there is limited time for Matteo Berrettini to get ready for this one.
We have seen from Novak Djokovic that it is possible for an injury to clear up, but Matteo Berrettini will have had trouble with this match up anyway and so any hinderance to his health could be an issue for him here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been in fine form in Melbourne since arriving for the Australian Open and he has backed up strong showings at the ATP Cup with three impressive wins. He did need the full five sets to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis, but I think that stands Tsitsipas in good stead with his mental strength evident in winning a match he deserved to rather than falling short as he did in a similar spot at the US Open last September.
His numbers have been brilliant over the last month, although there is always the question as to how Stefanos Tsitsipas is able to sustain those. The serve has been a big weapon for him for some time, but I have been critical of the return game and felt he needed a big improvement in that aspect of his tennis if he was going to go on and win a Grand Slam title and more beyond.
So far we have seen a vast improvement on that side of his game- Stefanos Tsitsipas has broken in around 17-20% of return games played on hard courts over the course of a season in the last three seasons. However he has improved that mark to 35% in Melbourne which includes a couple of matches against top 20 Ranked opponents and that has to offer Tsitsipas and his fans huge encouragement for what may come at the end of this week.
The return numbers would be tested by the big serving Matteo Berrettini brings to the court, but if he is restricted it could make him vulnerable in this Fourth Round match. If he can't get enough first serves in play it will give his opponent a real edge considering the returning struggles Matteo Berrettini has had on the hard courts and I think we will get a similar kind of win as the one Stefanos Tsitsipas had over this opponent two years ago at the Australian Open.
On that occasion Stefanos Tsitsipas only faced two break points in the match and earned three breaks of serve to come through in four sets and also cover this mark. I think he will likely have too much again for Matteo Berrettini who will challenge for a while, but perhaps not be able to compete behind his serve as much as usual and see Stefanos Tsitsipas continue his surprisingly strong returning to open the 2021 season.
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Casper Ruud: If someone had asked me at which Grand Slam would I expect Casper Ruud to make the second week for the first time, the French Open would have been very high on my list. His best results have certainly come in Paris, but Casper Ruud has backed up his Third Round run at the US Open last September by reaching the Fourth Round in Melbourne, although he has benefited from the draw.
The Norwegian has yet to beat anyone Ranked below Number 49 in the world, while he was also beaten in his first match in the warm up event held here last week. Overall the numbers look decent enough with Casper Ruud holding 90% of service games played in the tournament and with breaks in 27% of return games played.
That will give Ruud some confidence, but he has been returning to a higher level than he has produced in the last couple of years on the hard courts. It will be interesting to see if he can sustain that beyond the small sample of matches we have seen at the Australian Open, but Casper Ruud will also be the first to admit that this is going to be a considerably tougher match than he has faced in 2021.
Casper Ruud is just 3-14 when playing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts and in those matches he has held 80% of service games played and broken in just 11% of return games.
Now he has to take on the in-form Andrey Rublev who looks to be developing at an extremely fast pace and who has been playing really well in the ATP Cup and Australian Open in 2021. The Russian had really strong hard court numbers in 2020 and he has continued performing at a top level in the opening month of the new year with the feeling being this could be another strong year for Rublev on the Tour.
In the seven matches played in 2021, Andrey Rublev has held 97% of service games played and that does put an immense amount of pressure on opponents. He is winning 75% of service points played and has only been broken once at the Australian Open and I do think there is room for improvement when it comes to the return despite the relatively straight-forward three wins put together in the tournament.
Andrey Rublev will be looking to have a bit more success on the return and it may give Casper Ruud some confidence he can at least stay with the higher Ranked opponent he is facing. However, it should be noted that Rublev has still managed to break in 25% of return games played in the tournament and added to the serving it makes it very hard for player's to keep that belief going.
The Russian has beaten Casper Ruud in both previous matches and has held 83% of the time, while breaking in 33% of return games. Those have come on clay courts so this is expected to be a tougher match in which to break, but Andrey Rublev should have the superior moments and I think he will be able to pull away if he does get into a lead as the pressure from the return picks up on Casper Ruud.
Elise Mertens - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: Backing up big wins can be very challenging for any player on the Tennis Tour, and there is also the lack of experience of playing in the latter stages of the Grand Slams which could go against Karolina Muchova. However she has reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final before and last year managed to get to the US Open Fourth Round and that will give Muchova belief after beating compatriot Karolina Pliskova in the Third Round.
This is another tough match for the Czech player as she prepares to take on Elise Mertens- the Belgian has some strong numbers, but she has to prove she is able to handle the pressure of playing some of the better players on the Tour. Elise Mertens has reached three Grand Slam Quarter Finals and all of those have come on the hard courts, but her best successes have actually been on the Doubles Tour and that is sometimes down to the inability to beat some of the better names on the Tour in the Singles draws.
It has been a strong tournament for Elise Mertens so far having won every set played and only one of those sets has seen her drop more than three games. Unsurprisingly the numbers have been eye-catching and it has also backed up the run she had to the title in a warm up event for the Australian Open so you would think confidence won't be an issue for her, although controlling nerves may be the biggest factor.
Like Mertens, Karolina Muchova has not dropped a set in the tournament, but she needed to come from 5-0 down in the second set in her Third Round win over Karolina Pliskova to keep the run going. Much of that was down to Pliskova's drop in level, but Karolina Muchova has to be better and more consistent if she is going to beat someone who is playing as well as Elise Mertens has been.
When they met on the hard courts at the end of the 2020 season, Elise Mertens dominated the match against Karolina Muchova which was backed up by her strong serving. That shot is going to be the key for both players in this Fourth Round match and I do think Mertens has the edge in that department so far in the tournament and in that previous match in Ostrava in October.
It should see the Belgian have the edge at key moments and I think she is going to be too good for Karolina Muchova.
Elise Mertens has sometimes put in a terrible performance in the business end of Grand Slams as the pressure has perhaps got to her, but she is playing the better tennis of the two and I think that sees her through to another Quarter Final.
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 games v Donna Vekic: In ten consecutive Grand Slam tournaments Jennifer Brady had failed to go beyond the Second Round, but the 25 year old broke through in a big way at the US Open when reaching the Semi Final last September. She has backed that up and the American has reached the second week of the Australian Open for the second time in her career in 2021.
Jennifer Brady is at a career high World Ranking and is set to break into the top 20 in the coming weeks, but for now the American is looking to keep the momentum behind her. She has been dominant in her three wins at the Australian Open and none of the six sets she has played has seen an opponent win more than three games against Brady.
The numbers have been special with a single break of serve being allowed, and that has given Jennifer Brady an opportunity to get her teeth into return games and so far she has won over 51% of return points played. Jennifer Brady has broken fourteen times in three matches and in all of those she has earned at least four breaks of serve.
It is very encouraging as Jennifer Brady gets set to take on Donna Vekic, a player who put in a lot of physical and emotional effort in coming from a set and a break down to beat Kaia Kanepi in the Third Round. She needed over two and a half hours to win that match, and it is the second time in the tournament that Donna Vekic has gone into a third hour in a match while she has had to come from a set behind to win matches twice too.
Donna Vekic has strong serving numbers which will give her a chance in matches, but it will be an aspect of her game that is challenged by Jennifer Brady if Vekic is feeling the exertions of the first week of the tournament. While she has returned well enough in the Australian Open, Vekic has not been the best in that part of her game in recent years on the hard courts and it could be a big challenge for her facing this Jennifer Brady serve.
The returning against Kaia Kanepi will be very encouraging and I think that will give Donna Vekic a chance, but I do think the American opponent facing her is playing with extreme confidence at the moment. Jennifer Brady is blowing opponents off the court and I think she will have too much for Vekic if the returning numbers and successes regress to the kind of levels the Croatian has generally shown throughout her career.
Donna Vekic did win their sole previous meeting, but that was on the clay courts and I think Jennifer Brady earns a measure of revenge by making it to her first Australian Open Quarter Final in some style.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open 2021: 36-35, - 6.58 Units (142 Units Staked, - 4.63% Yield)
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